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Survivor Pool Strategy - Week 8 (1 Viewer)

Who is YOUR pick this week?

  • San Diego (vs Oakland)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Bears (vs Cleveland)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Indianapolis (vs San Francisco)

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  • Dallas (vs Seattle)

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  • Arizona (vs Carolina)

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  • New Orleans (vs Atlanta)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • NY Jets (vs Miami)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Houston (at Buffalo)

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  • Baltimore (vs Denver)

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  • Tennessee (vs Jacksonville)

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  • Green Bay (vs Minnesota)

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  • NY Giants (at Philadelphia)

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  • Detroit (vs St. Louis)

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  • St. Louis (@ Detroit)

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  • Other

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  • Total voters
    0

Lehigh98

Footballguy
Survivor is looking pretty ugly this year with such "non-parity" in the NFL and some huge lines.

Need to start looking further down the road to set up matchups in later weeks.

Who do you see as the best bets for this week and the best matchups to save teams for down the road?

Oakland at San Diego, 4:05 PM ET

-17.0 41.5 O/U

Cleveland at Bears, 1:00 PM ET

-14.0 40.0 O/U

San Francisco at Indianapolis, 1:00 PM ET

-13.0 43.5 O/U

Seattle at Dallas, 1:00 PM ET

-10.0 46.0 O/U

Carolina at Arizona, 4:15 PM ET

-10.0 41.0 O/U

Atlanta at New Orleans, 8:30 PM ET

-10.0 54.5 O/U

Miami at NY Jets, 1:00 PM ET

-3.5 40.5 O/U

Houston at Buffalo, 1:00 PM ET

+3.5 41.5 O/U

Denver at Baltimore, 1:00 PM ET

-3.0 41.0 O/U

Jacksonville at Tennessee, 4:05 PM ET

-3.0 45.0 O/U

Minnesota at Green Bay, 4:15 PM ET

-3.0 47.0 O/U

NY Giants at Philadelphia, 1:00 PM ET

-1.0 44.0 O/U

St. Louis at Detroit, 1:00 PM ET

-0.0 n/a
Surviving on Sunday Blog

OAK @ SD

The Raiders did give the Chargers a scare in Week 1, but I don't see it happening again. Last year in OAK the Raiders made it a close game then got blown out in SD. This year should be more of the same. I do think that the Raiders can run on the Chargers. But, assuming SD leads in the game the Raiders won't be running, and anyway, Cable loves calling way too many pass plays. The Chargers host KC in week 12, are at CLE week 13, @TEN week 16 and home to WAS week 17. They do have a lot of future value. As of now I am taking this game even with the value and # of people taking them.

CLE @ CHI

The Bears have a lot of issues, but should be able to win this week. They have played better at home so far this season while the Cleveland offense has scored 22 points in 4 road games. The Browns have had the toughest schedule so far this season. Their 6 opponents are 23-11 against other teams. I would expect the Browns to win a few games in the second half with DET, KC, OAK, JAC on their schedule. Not this week though. This is my 2nd pick. The Bears have STL at home in week 13 and are at Detroit in week 17.

CAR @ ARI

I think this game will be closer than many people think. The Cardinals have the #1 rush defense, and that is the Panthers strength. It should be interesting to see which one wins out. But it should also mean a few big plays by Steve Smith. [edit: playoff game was in Carolina] Arizona still plays STL twice, Detroit and Tennessee. I'll save them for a non-let down game.

SF @ IND

I don't expect this game to be easy for the Colts. They should win, just like Minnesota should have beaten the 49ers at home a few weeks back. If you haven't picked Indy, there aren't that many great games left to pick them, even as good as they are. Tenn at home (division stomp rematch), HOU twice, NE, BAL, DEN, JAC, NYJ, BUF (the last 2 where they might be resting players).

SEA @ DAL

Poor Seattle and their offensive line. They had a 4th string left tackle in last game. If the injuries keep up, they might be in the discussion for the bottom tier teams. Right now I think they are comparable to Buffalo who is bad but decent enough to pull an upset if everything goes right. I don't think that happens this week though. Dallas still plays OAK so I'm saving them.

STL @ DET

Why people are taking the Lions here I do not know. If you are still alive that means you survived 7 weeks while 60% of your pool is probably gone. And now you are going to take Detroit? Off a bye? That's crazy. I understand taking a game like this in Week 11 and later if you are in a pool that has double picks, but this... wow.

ATL @ NO

This should be a very good game. It's too bad that ATL has a few injuries in their secondary. The Saints have a very easy schedule coming up. There is no reason to take this game.

HOU @ BUF

If I were going to take a chance this week it'd probably be with this game. The Texans D has been playing well lately, and the Bills stink. I am going to hold off on taking this though.

JAC @ TEN

The 0-6 team is favored by 3 over the 3-3 team. I'm pretty sure that screams, "Dont take the Jags." Plus, this is our first Division Stomp Rematch game.

MIA @ NYJ

As crazy as it sounds, I didn't think the Jets D played well last week. They got a few lucky turnovers due more to OAK ineptitude, and then the game was out of hand. This was a classic game 2 weeks ago, lets see if the Jets can handle the wildcat or if they make the right adjustments on Henne.

DEN @ BAL

Great match up. If the Broncos can pull this one out, I will be uber-impressed.

NYG @ PHI

2 overrated teams right now. It'll probably be 16-13 or something, but both teams have a lot of issues.
 
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May stay on target with my plan from a couple weeks ago...

Week 6: GB vs DETWeek 7: IND @ STLWeek 8: SD vs OAKWeek 9: JAX vs KCWeek 10: MIN vs DETWeek 11: NO @ TBWeek 12: ATL vs TBWeek 13: PIT vs OAKWeek 14: TEN vs STLWeek 15: DEN vs OAKWeek 16: CIN vs STLWeek 17: Whoever has something to play for vs someone who doesn't(Subject to shuffling as the year develops if I'm still in the pool)
 
Trying to decide between Arizona, Chicago, and San Diego.

Not sure I really trust any of these teams, but right now I'm leaning Bears. I think Arizona and SD might still have other good matchups later on.

 
Surviving on Sunday Blog

OAK @ SD

The Raiders did give the Chargers a scare in Week 1, but I don't see it happening again. Last year in OAK the Raiders made it a close game then got blown out in SD. This year should be more of the same. I do think that the Raiders can run on the Chargers. But, assuming SD leads in the game the Raiders won't be running, and anyway, Cable loves calling way too many pass plays. The Chargers host KC in week 12, are at CLE week 13, @TEN week 16 and home to WAS week 17. They do have a lot of future value. As of now I am taking this game even with the value and # of people taking them.

CLE @ CHI

The Bears have a lot of issues, but should be able to win this week. They have played better at home so far this season while the Cleveland offense has scored 22 points in 4 road games. The Browns have had the toughest schedule so far this season. Their 6 opponents are 23-11 against other teams. I would expect the Browns to win a few games in the second half with DET, KC, OAK, JAC on their schedule. Not this week though. This is my 2nd pick. The Bears have STL at home in week 13 and are at Detroit in week 17.

CAR @ ARI

I think this game will be closer than many people think. The Cardinals have the #1 rush defense, and that is the Panthers strength. It should be interesting to see which one wins out. But it should also mean a few big plays by Steve Smith. [edit: playoff game was in Carolina] Arizona still plays STL twice, Detroit and Tennessee. I'll save them for a non-let down game.

SF @ IND

I don't expect this game to be easy for the Colts. They should win, just like Minnesota should have beaten the 49ers at home a few weeks back. If you haven't picked Indy, there aren't that many great games left to pick them, even as good as they are. Tenn at home (division stomp rematch), HOU twice, NE, BAL, DEN, JAC, NYJ, BUF (the last 2 where they might be resting players).

SEA @ DAL

Poor Seattle and their offensive line. They had a 4th string left tackle in last game. If the injuries keep up, they might be in the discussion for the bottom tier teams. Right now I think they are comparable to Buffalo who is bad but decent enough to pull an upset if everything goes right. I don't think that happens this week though. Dallas still plays OAK so I'm saving them.

STL @ DET

Why people are taking the Lions here I do not know. If you are still alive that means you survived 7 weeks while 60% of your pool is probably gone. And now you are going to take Detroit? Off a bye? That's crazy. I understand taking a game like this in Week 11 and later if you are in a pool that has double picks, but this... wow.

ATL @ NO

This should be a very good game. It's too bad that ATL has a few injuries in their secondary. The Saints have a very easy schedule coming up. There is no reason to take this game.

HOU @ BUF

If I were going to take a chance this week it'd probably be with this game. The Texans D has been playing well lately, and the Bills stink. I am going to hold off on taking this though.

JAC @ TEN

The 0-6 team is favored by 3 over the 3-3 team. I'm pretty sure that screams, "Dont take the Jags." Plus, this is our first Division Stomp Rematch game.

MIA @ NYJ

As crazy as it sounds, I didn't think the Jets D played well last week. They got a few lucky turnovers due more to OAK ineptitude, and then the game was out of hand. This was a classic game 2 weeks ago, lets see if the Jets can handle the wildcat or if they make the right adjustments on Henne.

DEN @ BAL

Great match up. If the Broncos can pull this one out, I will be uber-impressed.

NYG @ PHI

2 overrated teams right now. It'll probably be 16-13 or something, but both teams have a lot of issues.
 
I think Carolina is going to give AZ a much better game than expected, I try to stay away from Divisional games, and I just don't trust Dallas to show up.

I have the best feeling about Chicago at home this week against a historically week Browns team.... That's my pick.

 
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Tough call between SD and CHI, think I just feel more comfortable with SD though for some reason.
Right now it almost boils down to which week 13 matchup you like better, Bears vs. Rams or Chargers at Browns, because I don't think there's much else to choose from that week.As of right now I'm going with the Bears this week and planning for the Chargers in week 13 (don't know why I like that game better).
 
Tough call between SD and CHI, think I just feel more comfortable with SD though for some reason.
Right now it almost boils down to which week 13 matchup you like better, Bears vs. Rams or Chargers at Browns, because I don't think there's much else to choose from that week.As of right now I'm going with the Bears this week and planning for the Chargers in week 13 (don't know why I like that game better).
I went with Chicago this week. I felt more confident in SD, but I am saving them for week 17 vs. Washington. Week 13 I am taking Pittsburgh at home vs. OAK.
 
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Tough call between SD and CHI, think I just feel more comfortable with SD though for some reason.
Right now it almost boils down to which week 13 matchup you like better, Bears vs. Rams or Chargers at Browns, because I don't think there's much else to choose from that week.As of right now I'm going with the Bears this week and planning for the Chargers in week 13 (don't know why I like that game better).
I went with Chicago this week. I felt more confident in SD, but I am saving them for week 17 vs. Washington. Week 13 I am taking Pittsburgh at home vs. OAK.
That sounds like a good move. I've already used the Steelers.
 
I'm planning on using Arizona here, unless DRC is definitely out for a few weeks.
You like them better than SD or saving SD for another matchup?(Or used them already?)
San Diego has some other good matchups coming up.
Guess it doesn't matter now though.
:mellow:Don't act like San Diego is a 12-4 playoff team or something. If you had to bet whether it'd be Kurt Warner or Norv Turner to have his biannual meltdown first, which would you have bet?
 

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