T.Bell - [DYNASTY] Potential (1 Viewer)

[salmonstud]

I was dead wrong this year. I targeted Bell in most of my FF leagues. I thought he had the talent to take and retain the starting RB position in one of the most potent ground games in the NFL. I thought he was going to have a monster season. Old man Anderson held him off and Shanny went to RBBC despite having a history of playing primarily one back.Bell is averaging 5.6 yards per carry. Better than Dayne & Anderson. Mike Anderson is 32 years old...the age when generally RB's go to the NFL morgue. Ron Dayne is still Ron Dayne despite having a few long runs this year. I have seen the argument that Bell is too small and Shanny wants to only give him 15-17 touches per game to keep him fresh. Does anyone have any insight into this despite his short history of being dinged up? Bell is bigger than Portis. He can take it to the house anytime he touches the rock. Denver has been winning with Anderson...and I can understand avoiding a change this season. Maybe I'm dead wrong again...but I don't see how Shanny doesn't give Bell a chance in the future considering Mike's age.Do you see Bell being given a chance next year or in 2007 or does Shanny just draft another RB like he always does? What is Bell's dynasty value?

 

[LHUCKS]

Bell will most likely never be an everydown back for and extended period of time.Which is what I've been saying for over a year.

 

[Traders2001]

Bell will most likely never be an everydown back for and extended period of time.

Which is what I've been saying for over a year.

So it means they need to get R. Williams trough a trade .Because they have no RB able to carry the load .

 

[vandy73]

i was tempted to take Bell in the first round of an existing keeper league this year but went with Jordan instead. i just can't trust anything to work out as expected when it comes to RB's in Denver so i stay away and it looks like a good move. i won't ever draft a Denver RB in the high rounds.

 

[pinequick]

i was tempted to take Bell in the first round of an existing keeper league this year but went with Jordan instead.

i just can't trust anything to work out as expected when it comes to RB's in Denver so i stay away and it looks like a good move.

i won't ever draft a Denver RB in the high rounds.

In dynasty/keeper, I absolutely agree (so long as Shanahan is there). The trade of Portis is what brought me to this conclusion. They don't value unique talent--they value the system. Which is really great, NFL-wise, but not so great in a dynasty/keeper fantasy league.

 

[pinequick]

Bell will most likely never be an everydown back for and extended period of time.

Which is what I've been saying for over a year.

So it means they need to get R. Williams trough a trade .Because they have no RB able to carry the load .

You're joking, right? They've got an affordable three-headed monster (any one of whom looks like he could carry more of the load in case of an injury to the others), which has propelled the Broncos to the #2 rushing offense in the NFL. No *one* RB is carrying the load--but their *system* sure is. . .

 

[IndyHavoc]

I wish it were not so, but I tend to agree with LHUCKS on this one. You can never predict exactly what will happen in Denver through the playoffs and off-season, but it sure seems like Shanny isn't convinced the Bell can be a 30 touch/game guy. Maybe something will happen in the playoffs, and Bell will be propelled into doing this (thus proving himself?). I can hope, I'm probably stuck with him as a keeper in one league, bleh.

 

[spec1alk]

I also dont like taking a DEN RB early. Its too much chance.

 

[CheeseHead]

Didn't one of the FF mags have T. Bell on their cover stating he was the steal of the draft

 

[JohnnyU]

Didn't one of the FF mags have T. Bell on their cover stating he was the steal of the draft 

Bell's NFL and fantasy fortunes, or lack thereof, have yet to be written. We live in a Microwave society.

 

[godeepthreatz1]

Didn't one of the FF mags have T. Bell on their cover stating he was the steal of the draft

Ya Fantasy Index did. I lost alot of respect for them on that call.

 

[SSOG]

Bell will most likely never be an everydown back for and extended period of time.

Which is what I've been saying for over a year.

So it means they need to get R. Williams trough a trade .Because they have no RB able to carry the load .

Mike Anderson did just fine this season, and still has far fewer career carries than most of the "stud" RBs who will be taken over him. He'll be back for at least another season.

i was tempted to take Bell in the first round of an existing keeper league this year but went with Jordan instead.

i just can't trust anything to work out as expected when it comes to RB's in Denver so i stay away and it looks like a good move.

i won't ever draft a Denver RB in the high rounds.

That, to me, sounds like a very unwise move. Mike Anderson was a top-10 RB this season. Clinton Portis was top-10 both of his seasons in Denver. The worst Denver did at RB was last year with Reuben Droughns, who was 14th. Since there are typically around 10 RBs drafted in the first round, Denver RBs have been, on average, worthy of a first round pick. If you're ever sure of who the starter is, grab him in the first without hesitation. If you're ever curious who the starter is... why not try listening to what Shanahan says? He said since last April that Anderson was the starter.

I wish it were not so, but I tend to agree with LHUCKS on this one. You can never predict exactly what will happen in Denver through the playoffs and off-season, but it sure seems like Shanny isn't convinced the Bell can be a 30 touch/game guy. Maybe something will happen in the playoffs, and Bell will be propelled into doing this (thus proving himself?). I can hope, I'm probably stuck with him as a keeper in one league, bleh.

Oh? I dunno, I predicted back in April that Mike Anderson would win the starting job. I predicted it again back in June. I then predicted after the second week that he'd be a top-10 RB for the rest of the season. I've said all season that Tatum Bell's career high in carries is 17 and he won't top that (although he might next week). Denver's RB situation really isn't hard to decipher. Here's the secret- listen to what Shanny has to say. If he says Anderson is the starter and he doesn't want to overwork Bell, then Anderson will be starting and Bell isn't going to get overworked. How hard is that?That said, Denver drafts another RB next year. They do every year. And as for who wins the starting job... I dunno, let's wait until July and hear what Shanny has to say.

 

[Biabreakable]

lol @ suggesting that Skeletor is transparent with his comments and intentions.Mike Anderson will not be the best Denver Rb in 2006.I am doubtful that Tatum Bell will be the best Denver Rb in 2006 but I think it is more likely than Mike Anderson.I will be looking at who Denver aquires at Rb during the offseason as I do not think it is settled at all yet. If there are no worthy aquisitions during offseason then I expect RBBC again that will favor Bell slightly more than Mike Anderson for EOY numbers.

 

[eeee]

I believe Kevan Barlow will be a Denver RB in 2006.Anybody up to take 30-1 odds against me?

 

[KeeperSparky]

I believe Kevan Barlow will be a Denver RB in 2006.

Anybody up to take 30-1 odds against me?

How many carries is Tatum Bell likely to get this week with Anderson out? Will Shanahan give him enough to get to 1000 yards (131 yards)?

 

[Uruk-Hai]

Didn't one of the FF mags have T. Bell on their cover stating he was the steal of the draft 

Ya Fantasy Index did. I lost alot of respect for them on that call.

Why?I think it took gonads to do that. IIRC, they had him ranked #3 or #4 among RBs too. It didn't work out. Joe & David put Tiki on the cover, and it did work. You win some & you lose some. Maybe it's just me, but all of those other mags with Manning or LT on the cover ran together.

 

[SSOG]

lol @ suggesting that Skeletor is transparent with his comments and intentions.

Mike Anderson will not be the best Denver Rb in 2006.

I am doubtful that Tatum Bell will be the best Denver Rb in 2006 but I think it is more likely than Mike Anderson.

I will be looking at who Denver aquires at Rb during the offseason as I do not think it is settled at all yet. If there are no worthy aquisitions during offseason then I expect RBBC again that will favor Bell slightly more than Mike Anderson for EOY numbers.

Why lol @ saying that Shanny is transparent. Let's review some of his comments from this past year.April: Mike Anderson is our starting RB.

June: Mike Anderson is our starting RB. This is not a motivational ploy, or out of deference to his age.

August: Mike Anderson IS OUR STARTING RB.

September: (after Anderson gets injured) Anderson is still our starting RB, although we'll limit him some (result: limited carries, Dayne gets 4th quarter work)

September: (after Dayne shines in limited work) Mike Anderson is still our starting RB.

October/November: (after Bell really turns it on for 3-4 straight games) Mike Anderson is still our starting RB. We're concerned about overworking Bell, since he isn't as good when he gets a ton of carries (result: Anderson stays the starting RB, Bell has never gotten more than 17 carries in his career).

November: (after Dayne saves the Dallas game) Mike Anderson is still our starting RB. Dayne has earned some more carries (result: Anderson is still the starting RB, Dayne gets a few more carries in the next game).

Please, tell me what about all of those statements wasn't "transparent". I mean, if you didn't believe him, then that's fine, you've only got yourself to blame for misreading the Denver situation. Shanny has been 100% honest and forthright all season.

I mean, really, how hard is it? Can someone come up with ONE quote where he lied or mislead about his RB situation anytime in the past year? Just one. All you need is one quote that differed from reality and I'll concede the point. Good luck.

 

[Man in the yellow hat]

Didn't one of the FF mags have T. Bell on their cover stating he was the steal of the draft 

Ya Fantasy Index did. I lost alot of respect for them on that call.

Why?I think it took gonads to do that. IIRC, they had him ranked #3 or #4 among RBs too. It didn't work out. Joe & David put Tiki on the cover, and it did work. You win some & you lose some. Maybe it's just me, but all of those other mags with Manning or LT on the cover ran together.

Agreed. I have a lot of respect for those who buck the easy calls. At least you get a different opinion. At the end of the day, it's up to you to make the decision. They're just giving something different to chew on.

 

[Bri]

Bell will most likely never be an everydown back for and extended period of time.

Which is what I've been saying for over a year.

I agree with this but having said that about Tiki I'm hesitant on the word never.I remember the Giants having Gary Brown. Did he get hurt and Tiki showed his stuff? Or just a coaching staff change + the new staff gave him his shot? Can't recall what exactly made him jump to starter.

 

[Biabreakable]

Not talking about this year SSOG but 2001 when Skeletor was as bad or worse than Mike Tice concerning who would be starting at Rb.As far as recently I have no argument with Mike Anderson being the guy. I was a year (and a injury) early about that. Mike Anderson is getting too old now to be the man in 2006. If nothing else changes I see the RBBC continuing. Anderson could have more EOY carries than Bell but will not outproduce him yardage wise next year.I think somthing changes though and a new Rb will enter the mix.

 

[Man in the yellow hat]

I'll also say don't sleep on Ron Dayne. If anyone can get something out of him, it's Shanny.

 

[SSOG]

Bell will most likely never be an everydown back for and extended period of time.

Which is what I've been saying for over a year.

I agree with this but having said that about Tiki I'm hesitant on the word never.I remember the Giants having Gary Brown. Did he get hurt and Tiki showed his stuff? Or just a coaching staff change + the new staff gave him his shot? Can't recall what exactly made him jump to starter.

The difference is that Shanny LOVES Bell, it's just that Bell has proven during his career that he is extraordinary on carries 1-10 and pretty bad on carries 10+. I think a lot depends on Bell's offseason. If he can strengthen up without slowing down, and prove that he's capable of pounding defenses 25+ carries a game without losing effectiveness, he wins the starting job. No question. That's a pretty big if, though.

 

[Bri]

Didn't one of the FF mags have T. Bell on their cover stating he was the steal of the draft 

Ya Fantasy Index did. I lost alot of respect for them on that call.

Why?I think it took gonads to do that. IIRC, they had him ranked #3 or #4 among RBs too. It didn't work out. Joe & David put Tiki on the cover, and it did work. You win some & you lose some. Maybe it's just me, but all of those other mags with Manning or LT on the cover ran together.

Agreed. I have a lot of respect for those who buck the easy calls. At least you get a different opinion. At the end of the day, it's up to you to make the decision. They're just giving something different to chew on.

I don't recall Joe B saying Tiki was great, gonna be the man in 05 or anything like that. I only remember reading some stuff by him and getting the feeling that he just didn't wanna put LT or Peyton on the cover like everyone else. He wanted to be different than the norm. All I found was thishttp://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...=162311&hl=Tiki

Joe and FBGs were right on plenty of predictions this year. I just can't recall any of em' saying Tiki would do as well as he has. I don't think that's one of em'.

I still look thru the mag so obviously I enjoy it. Not trying to dis FBGs at all, I'm always "here" and obviously love the site, I just can't recall a "tiki's the man in 2005" proclamation

 

[JohnnyU]

I'll also say don't sleep on Ron Dayne.

That's better than letting Ron Dayne sleep on you

 

[hardcoredx]

Bell will most likely never be an everydown back for and extended period of time.

Which is what I've been saying for over a year.

I agree with this but having said that about Tiki I'm hesitant on the word never.I remember the Giants having Gary Brown. Did he get hurt and Tiki showed his stuff? Or just a coaching staff change + the new staff gave him his shot? Can't recall what exactly made him jump to starter.

The difference is that Shanny LOVES Bell, it's just that Bell has proven during his career that he is extraordinary on carries 1-10 and pretty bad on carries 10+. I think a lot depends on Bell's offseason. If he can strengthen up without slowing down, and prove that he's capable of pounding defenses 25+ carries a game without losing effectiveness, he wins the starting job. No question. That's a pretty big if, though.

Props to SSOG, you were right. I'm still not a big believer in 6th rounder Anderson. We will have to wait and see what Denver does in the offseason. They will draft another RB and maybe go after Barlow who fits their system perfectly as do a million others. I don't think they want to inherit Barlow's contract so SF might take a cap hit and just let him go. SF will likely keep Barlow and use him in a "Mike Anderson" role and have Gore spell him. Bell will probably get 10-13 carries and some other back will get the the rest. Bell has proven he cannot carry 20+. He will need to put on 10lbs of muscle in the offseason or Shanny will keep things the way they are.Bell + 10lbs of muscle = starter (20-22) carries a game

 

[salmonstud]

Bell will most likely never be an everydown back for and extended period of time.

Which is what I've been saying for over a year.

I agree with this but having said that about Tiki I'm hesitant on the word never.I remember the Giants having Gary Brown. Did he get hurt and Tiki showed his stuff? Or just a coaching staff change + the new staff gave him his shot? Can't recall what exactly made him jump to starter.

The difference is that Shanny LOVES Bell, it's just that Bell has proven during his career that he is extraordinary on carries 1-10 and pretty bad on carries 10+. I think a lot depends on Bell's offseason. If he can strengthen up without slowing down, and prove that he's capable of pounding defenses 25+ carries a game without losing effectiveness, he wins the starting job. No question. That's a pretty big if, though.

Props to SSOG, you were right. I'm still not a big believer in 6th rounder Anderson. We will have to wait and see what they Denver does in the offseason. They will draft another RB and maybe go after Barlow who fits their system perfectly as do a million others. I don't think they want to inherit Barlow's contract so SF might take a cap hit and just let him go. SF will likely keep Barlow and use him in a "Mike Anderson" role and have Gore spell him. Bell will probably get 10-13 carries and some other back will get the the rest. Bell has proven he cannot carry 20+. He will need to put on 10lbs of muscle in the offseason or Shanny will keep things the way they are.

I don't think we can say that Bell "has proven he can't carry 20+" He is the same height and a few pounds heavier than Portis who carries 20+. Bell has had a number of injuries in his 2 years in the NFL....but I believe 2 years is a too short of time frame to predict the future. That is like saying that Benson can't handle carrying the ball 20+ times because he hasn't done it yet in Chicago and he subsequently was injured this year. Somtimes the injury bug just bites...and not necessarlily cause & effect of a player's weight.

 

[Bri]

Bell will most likely never be an everydown back for and extended period of time.

Which is what I've been saying for over a year.

I agree with this but having said that about Tiki I'm hesitant on the word never.I remember the Giants having Gary Brown. Did he get hurt and Tiki showed his stuff? Or just a coaching staff change + the new staff gave him his shot? Can't recall what exactly made him jump to starter.

The difference is that Shanny LOVES Bell, it's just that Bell has proven during his career that he is extraordinary on carries 1-10 and pretty bad on carries 10+. I think a lot depends on Bell's offseason. If he can strengthen up without slowing down, and prove that he's capable of pounding defenses 25+ carries a game without losing effectiveness, he wins the starting job. No question. That's a pretty big if, though.

The Broncos had a back I think his name was Karon Coleman. He was like 4th string when Olandis and TD and Anderson were the guys there. He never really sniffed the field but for special teams and garbage time stuff. Shanny always praised the guy and just loved the guy for his work ethic and potential and all. The Broncos had injuries to their WRs and just got hit sooooo hard. They had to cut him and sign a WR. I was surprised because he loved the guy. A week later Shanny more or less said F that and re-signed Karon and had HIM play WR. I don't remember him getting many catches but some esp good blocks from the outside. Anyhow, that's about the last I'd heard of him.Shanny lovin' Bell means nothing.

 

[Biabreakable]

I think Tatum Bell is similar in ability to Michael Bennett and JJ Arrington.Great straight line speed but lacks agility and change of direction, vision as well as power to break tackles.Bell looks improved as far as his agility and reading his blocking this year from last year so he may be coachable and certainly the focus has been on his deficiencies.I think it is possible that he could become the rb Denver must have hoped he would be when they drafted him next year but I am doubtful about that. Some things especialy his durability are just not coachable.Denvers offseason will be an indication of how the coaching staff feels about his role in 2006. The lack of confidence in him so far is the main reason for my doubt in him. So I would need to see Bell do somthing (possibly a high number of carries during the playoffs) to change that.

 

[CravenM]

Tatum Bell and Clinton Portis are the exact same size: 5'11" 213 lbsMaybe it's taking a couple of years of adjustment out of college to maintain his health and stamina but TBell will be just fine.

 

[SSOG]

Props to SSOG, you were right. I'm still not a big believer in 6th rounder Anderson. We will have to wait and see what Denver does in the offseason. They will draft another RB and maybe go after Barlow who fits their system perfectly as do a million others. I don't think they want to inherit Barlow's contract so SF might take a cap hit and just let him go. SF will likely keep Barlow and use him in a "Mike Anderson" role and have Gore spell him. Bell will probably get 10-13 carries and some other back will get the the rest. Bell has proven he cannot carry 20+. He will need to put on 10lbs of muscle in the offseason or Shanny will keep things the way they are.

Bell + 10lbs of muscle = starter (20-22) carries a game

Why is Barlow a perfect fit for the Denver system? Because he has a pulse? Are you just pulling the names of RBs who aren't highly-regarded and calling them a perfect fit in Denver?Denver's system is based on excellent vision, power, and the ability to fight for tough yardage. Oh, and blocking is extremely important, too (more important to Shanny than to most coaches, except perhaps Cowher and Parcells). To the best of my knowledge, Kevan Barlow has never been hailed for any of those characteristics.

I don't think we can say that Bell "has proven he can't carry 20+" He is the same height and a few pounds heavier than Portis who carries 20+. Bell has had a number of injuries in his 2 years in the NFL....but I believe 2 years is a too short of time frame to predict the future. That is like saying that Benson can't handle carrying the ball 20+ times because he hasn't done it yet in Chicago and he subsequently was injured this year. Somtimes the injury bug just bites...and not necessarlily cause & effect of a player's weight.

I posted this on October 22nd:

Tatum Bell in 2005:

carries 1-5: 7.7 ypc.

carries 6-10: 9.1 ypc

carries 11-15: 1.7 ypc

Tatum Bell, career:

carries 1-5: 6.1 ypc

carries 6-10: 6.9 ypc

carries 11-15: 4.6 ypc

carries 16-20 are meaningless, since he's only had 3 in his career, so the sample size is ridiculously small. For those curious anyway, it's 3/3/0 and 1.0 ypc.

In addition, Shanahan has gone on record several times saying he doesn't want to overwork Bell- something he's never said about Davis, Gary, Anderson, Portis, Griffin, or Droughns.

 

[msommer]

Also - Shanahan is not afraid to burn a pick on a rb in case he sees some merit (see Clarett, Maurice). He is a virtual lock to pick a running back on the first day (that is until he doesn't). The rb situation in Denver in 2006 is not settled yet - this is only common sense - mini camps, off season training programmes and training camp are there for a reason. That aside, I personally believe that Bell will not be the feature back in Denver unless several other backs go down to injury between now and kick off of the first game next September.One thing we have to keep in mind next year - when both the HC and GM say the same thing about a player - they are not necessarily throwing out smokescreens