T.O at #30 overall deserves a serious lashing (1 Viewer)

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Timing was everything in regards to TO. In an earlier league, before all the crap came out on T.O., I drafted him at 2.02. He's done fine for me.In the FBG Survivor Contest, I actually passed on him at 3.01, which was the day after his suspenion by the Eagles for a weak. I think bumps regarding Owens are useless because I don't think there's anyone on these boards that think Owens isn't a great football and fantasy player.However, there were times during some drafts where it looked like Owens was a risky pick because of his off field stunts. Closer to the season he kind of cooled down and now his doing great.

 

[JAA]

I don't think the reward is worth the risk with the 30th pick. That's 3.06, which only presents value in PPR leagues.

I don't know what relevance you think a PPR league has that's somehow particularly negative for TO, or how you're defining value . . . but WR #8, after the likes of players like Joe Horn and Andre Johnson is freakin ridiculous. You smoking crack, brotha. Wish Vegas would offer me that one.

I'm saying the opposite actually. In a regular league I doubt I'd grab Owens at 3.06. In a point per reception league, I'd be much more likely. But there aren't any 12 team leagues where I'd take him with a second round pick.

Hows that workin out for ya?

I didn't draft Owens. He went about 10 picks after my 2nd round pick, and 10 picks before my 3rd round pick.

You are only in 1 regular league? I would have thought you were in much more. Your bolded statement is my point. I was asking you how your strategy worked out. Looks to me (and a bunch of others) you missed out on a lot of value.Thats what FF is all about as you know, value. You want each player you draft to outperform his draft position. Taking TO in the 2nd round is a shark move since you "predict" his floor to be much higher than the other picks available coupled with the value available in the 3rd round.

At least that was my strategy which is working out for me.

T.O. was too risky for my liking. I'm glad to hear taking TO worked out well for you though.

If you were talking about TO in the first round (12 team perf scoring) I would agree with you. However, we are talking about you not thinking he should have been selected in the early third round, which in my opinion is beyond bad advice.While TO was with the perenial pro bowler Jeff Garcia, his ADP was around 2.02. TO goes to the Eagles and he drops in value because AR spreads the ball around. Now his value drops even more because his off the field issues. How many years is it going to take for certain people to realize the flaws of ranking all-star athletes like that?

There are only a few players in the NFL that can carry a fantasy football team week in a week out. Terrell Owens is one of those players, and should be acquired whenever possible. I traded Owens in one dynasty league prior to the 2004 season and I have been kicking myself each and every week.

 

[GATZ]

Timing was everything in regards to TO. In an earlier league, before all the crap came out on T.O., I drafted him at 2.02. He's done fine for me.

In the FBG Survivor Contest, I actually passed on him at 3.01, which was the day after his suspenion by the Eagles for a weak. I think bumps regarding Owens are useless because I don't think there's anyone on these boards that think Owens isn't a great football and fantasy player.

However, there were times during some drafts where it looked like Owens was a risky pick because of his off field stunts. Closer to the season he kind of cooled down and now his doing great.

The original post here was well after TO came back from his "brief" suspension - he was ranked at WR #8 at the time. If you're going to rank him that high, then I assume the rankers assume he's playing the season - otherwise you don't put him in the top 10. Behind Andre Johnson ? Come on now.

 

[MelvinTScupper]

It could be a freakish year if he plays with this chip on his shoulder. Hope everyone stays on his case.

Wow #30 really? Sup with that?

I don't think the reward is worth the risk with the 30th pick. That's 3.06, which only presents value in PPR leagues.

"ouch"

 

[Chase Stuart]

It could be a freakish year if he plays with this chip on his shoulder. Hope everyone stays on his case.

Wow #30 really? Sup with that?

I don't think the reward is worth the risk with the 30th pick. That's 3.06, which only presents value in PPR leagues.

"ouch"

No "ouch." We each have our own level of risk. Personally, TO was too risky for me in the 2nd round, and I wouldn't have felt comfortable with taking him early in the third either. If you had done that, through 4 weeks you are pretty happy with your decision.

 

[MelvinTScupper]

It could be a freakish year if he plays with this chip on his shoulder. Hope everyone stays on his case.

Wow #30 really? Sup with that?

I don't think the reward is worth the risk with the 30th pick. That's 3.06, which only presents value in PPR leagues.

"ouch"

No "ouch." We each have our own level of risk. Personally, TO was too risky for me in the 2nd round, and I wouldn't have felt comfortable with taking him early in the third either. If you had done that, through 4 weeks you are pretty happy with your decision.

Yeah, I get that we each have our own level of risk. I think you blew it by knocking him down to #30. Not many players miss ACTUAL time for stuff like this, especially greedy ones.

 

[Chase Stuart]

It could be a freakish year if he plays with this chip on his shoulder. Hope everyone stays on his case.

Wow #30 really? Sup with that?

I don't think the reward is worth the risk with the 30th pick. That's 3.06, which only presents value in PPR leagues.

"ouch"

No "ouch." We each have our own level of risk. Personally, TO was too risky for me in the 2nd round, and I wouldn't have felt comfortable with taking him early in the third either. If you had done that, through 4 weeks you are pretty happy with your decision.

Yeah, I get that we each have our own level of risk. I think you blew it by knocking him down to #30. Not many players miss ACTUAL time for stuff like this, especially greedy ones.

The downside for TO was to have 0 points for the year. There was also a question of whether or not he could remain healthy, as he missed most of training camp, already had a pulled groin, and never plays a full schedule. Sure his upside was as the WR1, but I have faith in my ability to grab later round WRs.Like I said, for me, TO wasn't a pick I would have been comfortable making. I don't like to take risky picks in the early rounds.

But for those of you who prefer to take on someone like TO, it's worked out great -- so far.

 

[Jack McCoy]

Glad this thread was bumped -- still a lot of great info.

 

[shamrock84]

Actually there isn't any great info here. Just a bunch of people bashing some guy for a decision he made 2 months ago. I mean I'm not saying it was a good decision either but it's his team and his call to make. He makes a good point in that he wasn't comfortable with the risk... again HIS CALL. I'm sure all of you drafted or didn't draft someone who isn't turning out the way you'd hoped. I know I did (Andre "freakin" Johnson). And by the way hindsight is 20-20... if it were the other way around Chase would be bashing all of you.

 

[JAA]

It could be a freakish year if he plays with this chip on his shoulder. Hope everyone stays on his case.

Wow #30 really? Sup with that?

I don't think the reward is worth the risk with the 30th pick. That's 3.06, which only presents value in PPR leagues.

"ouch"

No "ouch." We each have our own level of risk. Personally, TO was too risky for me in the 2nd round, and I wouldn't have felt comfortable with taking him early in the third either. If you had done that, through 4 weeks you are pretty happy with your decision.

Which players did you have ranked ahead of TO in the 3rd round who were less "risky"?

 

[JAA]

It could be a freakish year if he plays with this chip on his shoulder. Hope everyone stays on his case.

Wow #30 really? Sup with that?

I don't think the reward is worth the risk with the 30th pick. That's 3.06, which only presents value in PPR leagues.

"ouch"

No "ouch." We each have our own level of risk. Personally, TO was too risky for me in the 2nd round, and I wouldn't have felt comfortable with taking him early in the third either. If you had done that, through 4 weeks you are pretty happy with your decision.

Yeah, I get that we each have our own level of risk. I think you blew it by knocking him down to #30. Not many players miss ACTUAL time for stuff like this, especially greedy ones.

I think it is worse than this. Projections and risk are solely educated guesses made by ourselves. Those projections and risk have left many FF owners behind the curve for the past two seasons specifically with TO. I see this "risk" factor a fundamental drafting flaw. Its one thing to choose Deuce over Priest (for example) because you are worried about LJ hawking carries. That would be less risky in most people minds. But not drafting a one of the two most explosive WRs in the game (other Moss) ... well, IMHO that is ridiculous.

 

[JAA]

Actually there isn't any great info here. Just a bunch of people bashing some guy for a decision he made 2 months ago. I mean I'm not saying it was a good decision either but it's his team and his call to make. He makes a good point in that he wasn't comfortable with the risk... again HIS CALL. I'm sure all of you drafted or didn't draft someone who isn't turning out the way you'd hoped. I know I did (Andre "freakin" Johnson). And by the way hindsight is 20-20... if it were the other way around Chase would be bashing all of you.

I disagree. I think this is a wonderfull discussion on projecting success of certain players that some consider "risky" because of their off the field issues.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I'm not going to get into this anymore for a few reasons, chief among them being I'm just not very interested in this.If I thought Owens had an 80% chace of scoring 250 points and a 20% chance of scoring 0 points (I'm making these numbers up), that would mean his expected value was 200 points. If TO goes out and gets 250 points, that doesn't make my projection wrong; rather something that I expected to happen 80% of the time didn't happen during one NFL season. Like I said, just not very interesting IMO.

 

[JAA]

I'm not going to get into this anymore for a few reasons, chief among them being I'm just not very interested in this.

If I thought Owens had an 80% chace of scoring 250 points and a 20% chance of scoring 0 points (I'm making these numbers up), that would mean his expected value was 200 points. If TO goes out and gets 250 points, that doesn't make my projection wrong; rather something that I expected to happen 80% of the time didn't happen during one NFL season. Like I said, just not very interesting IMO.

Not very interested in defending your projections or risk mitigation? Thats cool, you are a staff member who is paid to make these projections, but there is no accountability with respect to potential fundamental flaws in those projections.Oh, and you are never wrong and no one can give you advice to improve you ability to project FF success ... or at least that is what I am hearing you say.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I'm not going to get into this anymore for a few reasons, chief among them being I'm just not very interested in this.

If I thought Owens had an 80% chace of scoring 250 points and a 20% chance of scoring 0 points (I'm making these numbers up), that would mean his expected value was 200 points. If TO goes out and gets 250 points, that doesn't make my projection wrong; rather something that I expected to happen 80% of the time didn't happen during one NFL season. Like I said, just not very interesting IMO.

Not very interested in defending your projections or risk mitigation? Thats cool, you are a staff member who is paid to make these projections, but there is no accountability with respect to potential fundamental flaws in those projections.Oh, and you are never wrong and no one can give you advice to improve you ability to project FF success ... or at least that is what I am hearing you say.

If you can show me that if you roll a die, and it comes up 5, that my projection that there was a 1/6 chance of it coming up 3 was wrong, I will happily regain interest.

 

[Saeniph]

I'm not going to get into this anymore for a few reasons, chief among them being I'm just not very interested in this.

If I thought Owens had an 80% chace of scoring 250 points and a 20% chance of scoring 0 points (I'm making these numbers up), that would mean his expected value was 200 points. If TO goes out and gets 250 points, that doesn't make my projection wrong; rather something that I expected to happen 80% of the time didn't happen during one NFL season. Like I said, just not very interesting IMO.

Chase,You are wise to just give up this discussion.

Some people just don't get the idea of probability and expected value and the fact that over the long haul, making decisions like that one you describe here will yield favorable results. You can always come up with any one example that "appears" to contradict this type of analysis. But over a long period of time, you will be more right than wrong.

I had a similar discussion with one of my leaguemates and just realized I wasn't getting through. It's like trying to teach a dog to speak. You just need to have a certain mind to grasp these concepts. Anyway, I am glad to see that the staff here analyzes players in this way, which is why I keep coming back.

 

[glock]

I'm not going to get into this anymore for a few reasons, chief among them being I'm just not very interested in this.

If I thought Owens had an 80% chace of scoring 250 points and a 20% chance of scoring 0 points (I'm making these numbers up), that would mean his expected value was 200 points. If TO goes out and gets 250 points, that doesn't make my projection wrong; rather something that I expected to happen 80% of the time didn't happen during one NFL season. Like I said, just not very interesting IMO.

Totally understand any hesitancy in drafting TO going into this season.At 0-4, keeping him in my auction/keeper league is up to this point the only thing I did right.

 

[PoolShark]

I'm not going to get into this anymore for a few reasons, chief among them being I'm just not very interested in this.

If I thought Owens had an 80% chace of scoring 250 points and a 20% chance of scoring 0 points (I'm making these numbers up), that would mean his expected value was 200 points. If TO goes out and gets 250 points, that doesn't make my projection wrong; rather something that I expected to happen 80% of the time didn't happen during one NFL season. Like I said, just not very interesting IMO.

Not very interested in defending your projections or risk mitigation? Thats cool, you are a staff member who is paid to make these projections, but there is no accountability with respect to potential fundamental flaws in those projections.Oh, and you are never wrong and no one can give you advice to improve you ability to project FF success ... or at least that is what I am hearing you say.

If you can show me that if you roll a die, and it comes up 5, that my projection that there was a 1/6 chance of it coming up 3 was wrong, I will happily regain interest.

I'm picturing JAA working feverishly to saw a marble in half and glue it onto the "3" side of the die.

 

[JAA]

I'm not going to get into this anymore for a few reasons, chief among them being I'm just not very interested in this.

If I thought Owens had an 80% chace of scoring 250 points and a 20% chance of scoring 0 points (I'm making these numbers up), that would mean his expected value was 200 points. If TO goes out and gets 250 points, that doesn't make my projection wrong; rather something that I expected to happen 80% of the time didn't happen during one NFL season. Like I said, just not very interesting IMO.

Chase,You are wise to just give up this discussion.

Some people just don't get the idea of probability and expected value and the fact that over the long haul, making decisions like that one you describe here will yield favorable results. You can always come up with any one example that "appears" to contradict this type of analysis. But over a long period of time, you will be more right than wrong.

I had a similar discussion with one of my leaguemates and just realized I wasn't getting through. It's like trying to teach a dog to speak. You just need to have a certain mind to grasp these concepts. Anyway, I am glad to see that the staff here analyzes players in this way, which is why I keep coming back.

I come from this school of thought. However, you are missing the boat on this one. You can make all the percentage performance calls you want, but you need to take into account floors and ceilings. Maybe you are, maybe you arent, but the floor for somone like TO is the same cieling as the player Chase is going to try and nab as his WR later in the draft. What does this mean?First, let me throw out the "TO could get zero for the season" point. Is there a chance? Sure ... the same chance that you will be able to predict Fred Taylor's injury history with a 6-sided die. You can go back in time and give a probability based on historic events, but there is no way to predict future success (or failure). Feel free to try and prove me wrong. Also, take a look at the years TO got 0 points because he was suspended all season. Add up all the potential points TO lost because he needed to sit out 4 weeks for drug use or beating his wife. Dont forget to take all of that into consideration.

Drafting TO means that upfront you will get a starting WR in your lineup. The floor for TO is a WR3 every week he plays. There will not be a matchup ever throughout the season that you would not start him. TO is about as dependable as it gets with respect to fantasy points scored week in and week out. Take a look at his targets throughout his career if you would like. Im not even going to bother showing TOs ceiling with respect to other WRs as well as comparing him to equal ADP RBs. The proof is in the popcorn, and you should get yours ready.

Also, when you decide to "pick up WR talent later in the draft", you dont just pick up 1 WR. You typically pick up 3 WRs hoping one will come around and outperform his draft position. Well guess what? You just wasted 3 draft picks on 1 starting lineup spot. Those 3 picks could have been used to on players with huge upside like Mewelde Moore, Marcel Shipp, Tatum Bell, and (dare I say it) Willie Parker. Being able to "reach" for players like these is where the true value of FF drafting is at. Not having to worry week in and week out which WR you are going to start because of matchup is a luxury, that when done right, allows you to backfill you roster with possible stars are more volitile position, like RB and QB. Not to mention it is 10x easier to trade RBs that performing WRs. That is a whole different topic as to why I like to fill my roster with 4-5 WRs and RBs galore.

I hope you continue to win your league, I hope you continue to roll your die for double damamge, and I hope you continue to keep a closed mind about drafting techniques with respect to understanding players and players situations evaluated on the Fantasy Football field, not from the fans view.

Good luck to you,

JAA

 

[Marc Levin]

T.O. was too risky for my liking. I'm glad to hear taking TO worked out well for you though.

What he said - you all really need to lighten up on individual projections making or breaking a person's entire wealth of FF knowledge.Most of my picks take risk into consideration and the emnity between TO and the organization was enough for me to drop TO out of the top-5 receivers.

 

[JAA]

T.O. was too risky for my liking. I'm glad to hear taking TO worked out well for you though.

What he said - you all really need to lighten up on individual projections making or breaking a person's entire wealth of FF knowledge.Most of my picks take risk into consideration and the emnity between TO and the organization was enough for me to drop TO out of the top-5 receivers.

This is a discussion, not an inquisition. Im sorry if the skin around here is so soft.

 

[Marc Levin]

No - it isn't - from bump forward you, specifically, have been bashing Chase for his pre-season decision.I don't care - come after me - I am not thin skinned in the least.But, Chase's position is perfectly clear - too much risk FOR HIM.

 

[bostonfred]

If you can show me that if you roll a die, and it comes up 5, that my projection that there was a 1/6 chance of it coming up 3 was wrong, I will happily regain interest.

This is a good analogy for both sides of the argument. Certainly, you're making a good point about expected value. But once the season gets going, and you see that 5, it's easy to look back and say, was that die weighted so it came up 5 more often? Would a 6 have yielded similar, or even better results? Were there even six sides to that particular die?

 

[JAA]

I don't care - come after me - I am not thin skinned in the least.

Are you his big brother?I didnt attempt to come off as bashing. If I did, I am truly sorry, but for me, I just dont see it.

Thats cool chase doesnt want to defend his risk mitigation for NOT selecting TO in the 3rd round. Good luck to him and the rest of his popcorn-less fantasy season. Im sure he drafted Plaxico and Galloway late in the draft and is coasting at this point.

 

[JAA]

If you can show me that if you roll a die, and it comes up 5, that my projection that there was a 1/6 chance of it coming up 3 was wrong, I will happily regain interest.

This is a good analogy for both sides of the argument. Certainly, you're making a good point about expected value. But once the season gets going, and you see that 5, it's easy to look back and say, was that die weighted so it came up 5 more often? Would a 6 have yielded similar, or even better results? Were there even six sides to that particular die?

 

[JAA]

For folks who didnt select TO in the 3rd round:Would you have selected TO in the 4th round? If so, why now? Why is he so much less risk in the 4th round?JAAPS - I dont have my dragon dice in front of me, I would appreciate it if we could leave them out.

 

[Marc Levin]

for the record, had TO lasted to my third round pick in ANY of my leagues, he'd be on my team.He was still a top-20 player for me even if he was my WR5/6 (kept swapping him with Joe Horn) heading into the season. I had one QB, 5 WRs and 14 RB in my top-20, and TO was in my top-20.

Thats cool chase doesnt want to defend his risk mitigation for NOT selecting TO in the 3rd round.

He DID defend it - that is why you are bashing him - he gave a complete description of how he analyzed TOs expected value based on risk.

 

[GATZ]

Although this has recently turned to an attack on Chase (a justified one IMO b/c of his comments), the original post was critical of the whole staff for the FBG rankings that were published at the time. TO at #30 overall and WR#8 at the time of the post was ridiculous and needed to be discussed - I almost fell off my chair when I saw the rankings . . . hence the post. This isn't a hindsight test, the original post was pre-season.

 

[Marc Levin]

Although this has recently turned to an attack on Chase (a justified one IMO b/c of his comments), the original post was critical of the whole staff for the FBG rankings that were published at the time. TO at #30 overall and WR#8 at the time of the post was ridiculous and needed to be discussed - I almost fell off my chair when I saw the rankings . . . hence the post. This isn't a hindsight test, the original post was pre-season.

David Dodds does the "official" FBGuy rankings.You can still locate individual staff members' preseason rankings if you are a subscriber.

 

[B-Deep]

Although this has recently turned to an attack on Chase (a justified one IMO b/c of his comments), the original post was critical of the whole staff for the FBG rankings that were published at the time. TO at #30 overall and WR#8 at the time of the post was ridiculous and needed to be discussed - I almost fell off my chair when I saw the rankings . . . hence the post. This isn't a hindsight test, the original post was pre-season.

Well great, I say from now on we take every preseason prediction we don't like and bump it week 4 if it was wrong. At that point we should berate whoever made the prediction endlessly to make ourselves feel superior.What a dumb thread to bump. After his syspension TO was the bigest risk/reward player in the draft, OBVIOUSLY some people would take the risks and others wouldn't and one of those two groups would have gotten it wrong

SO WHAT!!!!

 

[JAA]

for the record, had TO lasted to my third round pick in ANY of my leagues, he'd be on my team.

He was still a top-20 player for me even if he was my WR5/6 (kept swapping him with Joe Horn) heading into the season. I had one QB, 5 WRs and 14 RB in my top-20, and TO was in my top-20.

Thats cool chase doesnt want to defend his risk mitigation for NOT selecting TO in the 3rd round.

He DID defend it - that is why you are bashing him - he gave a complete description of how he analyzed TOs expected value based on risk.

Your a lawyer ... you call that defending? I guess I just expected more from him

 

[Marc Levin]

Your a lawyer ... you call that defending? I guess I just expected more from him

Yup, I sure do - he explained, fully, why he made that decision.Look, I am sorry he didn't want your golden boy Owens on his team - I wouldn't have made that decision, but bashing him now for it is not doing this board any good. And there is nothing more he can say on the subject. So what the heck are you pushing this for?

My guess is that you are ready to jump down anyone's throat who doesn't like TO.

 

[brewer]

I don't like TO.

 

[Saeniph]

I come from this school of thought. However, you are missing the boat on this one. You can make all the percentage performance calls you want, but you need to take into account floors and ceilings. Maybe you are, maybe you arent, but the floor for somone like TO is the same cieling as the player Chase is going to try and nab as his WR later in the draft. What does this mean?

First, let me throw out the "TO could get zero for the season" point. Is there a chance? Sure ... the same chance that you will be able to predict Fred Taylor's injury history with a 6-sided die. You can go back in time and give a probability based on historic events, but there is no way to predict future success (or failure). Feel free to try and prove me wrong. Also, take a look at the years TO got 0 points because he was suspended all season. Add up all the potential points TO lost because he needed to sit out 4 weeks for drug use or beating his wife. Dont forget to take all of that into consideration.

Drafting TO means that upfront you will get a starting WR in your lineup. The floor for TO is a WR3 every week he plays. There will not be a matchup ever throughout the season that you would not start him. TO is about as dependable as it gets with respect to fantasy points scored week in and week out. Take a look at his targets throughout his career if you would like. Im not even going to bother showing TOs ceiling with respect to other WRs as well as comparing him to equal ADP RBs. The proof is in the popcorn, and you should get yours ready.

Also, when you decide to "pick up WR talent later in the draft", you dont just pick up 1 WR. You typically pick up 3 WRs hoping one will come around and outperform his draft position. Well guess what? You just wasted 3 draft picks on 1 starting lineup spot. Those 3 picks could have been used to on players with huge upside like Mewelde Moore, Marcel Shipp, Tatum Bell, and (dare I say it) Willie Parker. Being able to "reach" for players like these is where the true value of FF drafting is at. Not having to worry week in and week out which WR you are going to start because of matchup is a luxury, that when done right, allows you to backfill you roster with possible stars are more volitile position, like RB and QB. Not to mention it is 10x easier to trade RBs that performing WRs. That is a whole different topic as to why I like to fill my roster with 4-5 WRs and RBs galore.

I hope you continue to win your league, I hope you continue to roll your die for double damamge, and I hope you continue to keep a closed mind about drafting techniques with respect to understanding players and players situations evaluated on the Fantasy Football field, not from the fans view.

Good luck to you,

JAA

Very funny, somehow you seem to have drawn conclusions about my entire draft strategy because I simply defended analyzing players from an expected value point of view.Regardless, your reply is filled with excessive hyperbole (using a six-sided die, TO sitting out for beating his wife, etc). It is my experience that when someone has to use this technique, the point they're trying to get across is weak and thus they have to make their language more colorful.

This seems to be the case. You are ignoring very obvious facts that we had at the time. I don't remember the exact dates in reference to the original post, but TO caused problems all off-season, sat out of the beginning of pre-season threatening not to sign, finally joined the squad, shortly thereafter, he blew up and was told to leave for a week. He was on bad terms with McNabb and the team even up to the first game.

This alone certainly adds a probability that his point total could be seriously hurt, or even completely wiped out if the Eagles decided they had enough of him. Your other points about factoring in every detail of his past are irrelevant. This has nothing to do with "past history to predict future performance".

Therefore, he dropped in the rankings - and deservedly. I suspect we are closer in opinion on where he should drop than you may think. I had the 24th and 25th pick in my draft and would have easily drafted him had he fallen. He ended up going a couple picks before me, which was certainly lower than his traditional late-first to early-second position.

 

[JAA]

Your a lawyer ... you call that defending?    I guess I just expected more  from him

Yup, I sure do - he explained, fully, why he made that decision.Look, I am sorry he didn't want your golden boy Owens on his team - I wouldn't have made that decision, but bashing him now for it is not doing this board any good. And there is nothing more he can say on the subject. So what the heck are you pushing this for?

My guess is that you are ready to jump down anyone's throat who doesn't like TO.

Ive written a page of detailed analysis as to why someone should draft game breakers like TO. All ive gotten from the FBG bretheren is "roll the dice". Im sorry that your love blinders either didnt see it or cant comprehend it.Youre right, he did explain why he didnt want TO in the 3rd round. But I wouldnt want anyone defending me who considered that a defense. I have also presented questions regarding when TO does become value with respect to his perceived "riskiness".

Frankly, im tired of trying to creat discussion on this point. Chas and your responses have tired me out. No more discussion on this topic. Good job

 

[JAA]

I come from this school of thought.  However, you are missing the boat on this one.  You can make all the percentage performance calls you want, but you need to take into account floors and ceilings.  Maybe you are, maybe you arent, but the floor for somone like TO is the same cieling as the player Chase is going to try and nab as his WR later in the draft.  What does this mean?

First, let me throw out the "TO could get zero for the season" point.  Is there a chance?  Sure ... the same chance that you will be able to predict Fred Taylor's injury history with a 6-sided die.  You can go back in time and give a probability based on historic events, but there is no way to predict future success (or failure).  Feel free to try and prove me wrong.  Also, take a look at the years TO got 0 points because he was suspended all season.  Add up all the potential points TO lost because he needed to sit out 4 weeks for drug use or beating his wife.  Dont forget to take all of that into consideration.

Drafting TO means that upfront you will get a starting WR in your lineup.  The floor for TO is a WR3 every week he plays.  There will not be a matchup ever throughout the season that you would not start him.  TO is about as dependable as it gets with respect to fantasy points scored week in and week out.  Take a look at his targets throughout his career if you would like.  Im not even going to bother showing TOs ceiling with respect to other WRs as well as comparing him to equal ADP RBs.  The proof is in the popcorn, and you should get yours ready.

Also, when you decide to "pick up WR talent later in the draft", you dont just pick up 1 WR.  You typically pick up 3 WRs hoping one will come around and outperform his draft position.  Well guess what?  You just wasted 3 draft picks on 1 starting lineup spot.  Those 3 picks could have been used to on players with huge upside like Mewelde Moore, Marcel Shipp, Tatum Bell, and (dare I say it) Willie Parker.  Being able to "reach" for players like these is where the true value of FF drafting is at.  Not having to worry week in and week out which WR you are going to start because of matchup is a luxury, that when done right, allows you to backfill you roster with possible stars are more volitile position, like RB and QB.  Not to mention it is 10x easier to trade RBs that performing WRs.  That is a whole different topic as to why I like to fill my roster with 4-5 WRs and RBs galore.

I hope you continue to win your league, I hope you continue to roll your die for double damamge, and I hope you continue to keep a closed mind about drafting techniques with respect to understanding players and players situations evaluated on the Fantasy Football field, not from the fans view.

Good luck to you,

JAA

This seems to be the case. You are ignoring very obvious facts that we had at the time. I don't remember the exact dates in reference to the original post, but TO caused problems all off-season, sat out of the beginning of pre-season threatening not to sign, finally joined the squad, shortly thereafter, he blew up and was told to leave for a week. He was on bad terms with McNabb and the team even up to the first game.This alone certainly adds a probability that his point total could be seriously hurt, or even completely wiped out if the Eagles decided they had enough of him. Your other points about factoring in every detail of his past are irrelevant. This has nothing to do with "past history to predict future performance".

Therefore, he dropped in the rankings - and deservedly. I suspect we are closer in opinion on where he should drop than you may think. I had the 24th and 25th pick in my draft and would have easily drafted him had he fallen. He ended up going a couple picks before me, which was certainly lower than his traditional late-first to early-second position.

Help me understand why Javon Walker didnt drop in rankings like TO did. While your at it, help me understand the difference between both of those players situations.I was making a point with what you call the "excessive hyperbole". All of those points cant be predicted, nor should they be brought in to a discussion of potential FF success because they cant be predicted.

Ill say it again: If TO was risky in the 3rd, is he still risky in the 4th and if not why?

 

[Joe Bryant]

No need to argue this one. Obviously we were wrong. I backed way off when folks close to the team (including Jaworski) said he was done as an Eagle. It was a calculated gamble regarding playing time.If he got back in camp, he was obviously a top guy. If he didn't, he dropped. Our ranking showed us trying to weigh the odds of how likely it was he'd get back in camp. He's earning the spot more where we had him prior to all the serious contract talk.That's how these things go sometimes. You hit some and you will miss some. All you can do is work as hard as you can to get as many right as you can. I really don't know any other way.J

 

[B-Deep]

I come from this school of thought. However, you are missing the boat on this one. You can make all the percentage performance calls you want, but you need to take into account floors and ceilings. Maybe you are, maybe you arent, but the floor for somone like TO is the same cieling as the player Chase is going to try and nab as his WR later in the draft. What does this mean?

First, let me throw out the "TO could get zero for the season" point. Is there a chance? Sure ... the same chance that you will be able to predict Fred Taylor's injury history with a 6-sided die. You can go back in time and give a probability based on historic events, but there is no way to predict future success (or failure). Feel free to try and prove me wrong. Also, take a look at the years TO got 0 points because he was suspended all season. Add up all the potential points TO lost because he needed to sit out 4 weeks for drug use or beating his wife. Dont forget to take all of that into consideration.

Drafting TO means that upfront you will get a starting WR in your lineup. The floor for TO is a WR3 every week he plays. There will not be a matchup ever throughout the season that you would not start him. TO is about as dependable as it gets with respect to fantasy points scored week in and week out. Take a look at his targets throughout his career if you would like. Im not even going to bother showing TOs ceiling with respect to other WRs as well as comparing him to equal ADP RBs. The proof is in the popcorn, and you should get yours ready.

Also, when you decide to "pick up WR talent later in the draft", you dont just pick up 1 WR. You typically pick up 3 WRs hoping one will come around and outperform his draft position. Well guess what? You just wasted 3 draft picks on 1 starting lineup spot. Those 3 picks could have been used to on players with huge upside like Mewelde Moore, Marcel Shipp, Tatum Bell, and (dare I say it) Willie Parker. Being able to "reach" for players like these is where the true value of FF drafting is at. Not having to worry week in and week out which WR you are going to start because of matchup is a luxury, that when done right, allows you to backfill you roster with possible stars are more volitile position, like RB and QB. Not to mention it is 10x easier to trade RBs that performing WRs. That is a whole different topic as to why I like to fill my roster with 4-5 WRs and RBs galore.

I hope you continue to win your league, I hope you continue to roll your die for double damamge, and I hope you continue to keep a closed mind about drafting techniques with respect to understanding players and players situations evaluated on the Fantasy Football field, not from the fans view.

Good luck to you,

JAA

This seems to be the case. You are ignoring very obvious facts that we had at the time. I don't remember the exact dates in reference to the original post, but TO caused problems all off-season, sat out of the beginning of pre-season threatening not to sign, finally joined the squad, shortly thereafter, he blew up and was told to leave for a week. He was on bad terms with McNabb and the team even up to the first game.This alone certainly adds a probability that his point total could be seriously hurt, or even completely wiped out if the Eagles decided they had enough of him. Your other points about factoring in every detail of his past are irrelevant. This has nothing to do with "past history to predict future performance".

Therefore, he dropped in the rankings - and deservedly. I suspect we are closer in opinion on where he should drop than you may think. I had the 24th and 25th pick in my draft and would have easily drafted him had he fallen. He ended up going a couple picks before me, which was certainly lower than his traditional late-first to early-second position.

Help me understand why Javon Walker didnt drop in rankings like TO did. While your at it, help me understand the difference between both of those players situations.I was making a point with what you call the "excessive hyperbole". All of those points cant be predicted, nor should they be brought in to a discussion of potential FF success because they cant be predicted.

Ill say it again: If TO was risky in the 3rd, is he still risky in the 4th and if not why?

I thought you said no further discussion...

 

[JAA]

I come from this school of thought.  However, you are missing the boat on this one.  You can make all the percentage performance calls you want, but you need to take into account floors and ceilings.  Maybe you are, maybe you arent, but the floor for somone like TO is the same cieling as the player Chase is going to try and nab as his WR later in the draft.  What does this mean?

First, let me throw out the "TO could get zero for the season" point.  Is there a chance?  Sure ... the same chance that you will be able to predict Fred Taylor's injury history with a 6-sided die.  You can go back in time and give a probability based on historic events, but there is no way to predict future success (or failure).  Feel free to try and prove me wrong.  Also, take a look at the years TO got 0 points because he was suspended all season.  Add up all the potential points TO lost because he needed to sit out 4 weeks for drug use or beating his wife.  Dont forget to take all of that into consideration.

Drafting TO means that upfront you will get a starting WR in your lineup.  The floor for TO is a WR3 every week he plays.  There will not be a matchup ever throughout the season that you would not start him.  TO is about as dependable as it gets with respect to fantasy points scored week in and week out.  Take a look at his targets throughout his career if you would like.  Im not even going to bother showing TOs ceiling with respect to other WRs as well as comparing him to equal ADP RBs.  The proof is in the popcorn, and you should get yours ready.

Also, when you decide to "pick up WR talent later in the draft", you dont just pick up 1 WR.  You typically pick up 3 WRs hoping one will come around and outperform his draft position.  Well guess what?  You just wasted 3 draft picks on 1 starting lineup spot.  Those 3 picks could have been used to on players with huge upside like Mewelde Moore, Marcel Shipp, Tatum Bell, and (dare I say it) Willie Parker.  Being able to "reach" for players like these is where the true value of FF drafting is at.  Not having to worry week in and week out which WR you are going to start because of matchup is a luxury, that when done right, allows you to backfill you roster with possible stars are more volitile position, like RB and QB.  Not to mention it is 10x easier to trade RBs that performing WRs.  That is a whole different topic as to why I like to fill my roster with 4-5 WRs and RBs galore.

I hope you continue to win your league, I hope you continue to roll your die for double damamge, and I hope you continue to keep a closed mind about drafting techniques with respect to understanding players and players situations evaluated on the Fantasy Football field, not from the fans view.

Good luck to you,

JAA

This seems to be the case. You are ignoring very obvious facts that we had at the time. I don't remember the exact dates in reference to the original post, but TO caused problems all off-season, sat out of the beginning of pre-season threatening not to sign, finally joined the squad, shortly thereafter, he blew up and was told to leave for a week. He was on bad terms with McNabb and the team even up to the first game.This alone certainly adds a probability that his point total could be seriously hurt, or even completely wiped out if the Eagles decided they had enough of him. Your other points about factoring in every detail of his past are irrelevant. This has nothing to do with "past history to predict future performance".

Therefore, he dropped in the rankings - and deservedly. I suspect we are closer in opinion on where he should drop than you may think. I had the 24th and 25th pick in my draft and would have easily drafted him had he fallen. He ended up going a couple picks before me, which was certainly lower than his traditional late-first to early-second position.

Help me understand why Javon Walker didnt drop in rankings like TO did. While your at it, help me understand the difference between both of those players situations.I was making a point with what you call the "excessive hyperbole". All of those points cant be predicted, nor should they be brought in to a discussion of potential FF success because they cant be predicted.

Ill say it again: If TO was risky in the 3rd, is he still risky in the 4th and if not why?

I thought you said no further discussion...

Good idea, nothing can be learned from this. The prediction was hedged against the possibility of not playing. That way, you pick him in the 4th or 5th because he has more value in that round if he doesnt score any points.In reality, not selecting TO in the 3rd, you are garunteeing you wont have him on your roster. This is not a hedge.

 

[Wally Cleaver]

I'm not going to get into this anymore for a few reasons, chief among them being I'm just not very interested in this.

If I thought Owens had an 80% chace of scoring 250 points and a 20% chance of scoring 0 points (I'm making these numbers up), that would mean his expected value was 200 points. If TO goes out and gets 250 points, that doesn't make my projection wrong; rather something that I expected to happen 80% of the time didn't happen during one NFL season. Like I said, just not very interesting IMO.

Chase,You are wise to just give up this discussion.

Some people just don't get the idea of probability and expected value and the fact that over the long haul, making decisions like that one you describe here will yield favorable results. You can always come up with any one example that "appears" to contradict this type of analysis. But over a long period of time, you will be more right than wrong.

I had a similar discussion with one of my leaguemates and just realized I wasn't getting through. It's like trying to teach a dog to speak. You just need to have a certain mind to grasp these concepts. Anyway, I am glad to see that the staff here analyzes players in this way, which is why I keep coming back.

Let me start out by saying that I dont find it that cool to jump on somebody who was wrong several months ago, or at least wrong up to this point... I do however completely disagree with the above logic.The way to win at Fantasy football is to find players who will outproduce their normal level of production, or outproduce their draft position. Playing it safe and finding guys who will consistently meet the standard scoring baseline you expect for them will consistently leave you in the middle of the pack...

My point... If you expect to win at FF you need to take some risks and this year T.O. in the third round offered little risk for the huge reward he could produce... If you don't believe me, then trying trading for him. There are probably only five or six guys T.O. owners would trade for him straight up.

 

[Marc Levin]

In reality, not selecting TO in the 3rd, you are garunteeing you wont have him on your roster. This is not a hedge.

That is the most accurate comment you have made. I personally see no way anyone could have expected TO to last past 3.06 at any point in the preseason, and I question Chase's decision that he didn't have enough value versus risk in the early third not to have selected him. but I respect his (and Joe's) comments that was how they saw his risk at that point in the preseason.Just b/c Chase didn't want to expand further into his explanation does not make that explanation "weak" or incomplete.

Just b/c none of the rest of us checking in want to discuss this at LENGTH doesn't mean we haven't sufficiently and fully discussed it.

BTW, taking a potshot at me as a lawyer is not helping you in any of this argument - I am able to succinctly and in a few words describe my position. Fully. Completely. That is actually how lawyers win over judges and how they win negotiations with other lawyers.

We win over juries by talking forever and "spinning" arguments to appeal to the masses. I am not a trial attorney and I am not advocating Chase's position - and I am not trying to win over the peanut gallery. I believe Chase explaned - succinctly and completely - his position.

 

[wannabee]

I think the thing missed in all of this is that we all have different risk tolerances. If someone, at time of their draft had a choice at a second round WR between TOP and Holt, and chose Holt because it was "safer", it does not mean he was wrong.Many win while playing it safe. However, many more win by taking chances on studs forgetting the circumstances (TO, Moss, Burress, Jordan, Ricky Williams, etc.)

 

[JAA]

In reality, not selecting TO in the 3rd, you are garunteeing you wont have him on your roster.  This is not a hedge.

That is the most accurate comment you have made. I personally see no way anyone could have expected TO to last past 3.06 at any point in the preseason, and I question Chase's decision that he didn't have enough value versus risk in the early third not to have selected him. but I respect his (and Joe's) comments that was how they saw his risk at that point in the preseason.Just b/c Chase didn't want to expand further into his explanation does not make that explanation "weak" or incomplete.

Just b/c none of the rest of us checking in want to discuss this at LENGTH doesn't mean we haven't sufficiently and fully discussed it.

BTW, taking a potshot at me as a lawyer is not helping you in any of this argument - I am able to succinctly and in a few words describe my position. Fully. Completely. That is actually how lawyers win over judges and how they win negotiations with other lawyers.

We win over juries by talking forever and "spinning" arguments to appeal to the masses. I am not a trial attorney and I am not advocating Chase's position - and I am not trying to win over the peanut gallery. I believe Chase explaned - succinctly and completely - his position.

Sounds like you are taking this way to personally. I appologize for getting under your skin, it was neither my intent in the beginning or now. It sounds like you and Chase have it all figured out. Good luck to the both of you and your succinct strategies. I also feel I have completely explaned myself as far as I can without futher input from either of you. You have been succinct in your responses.

 

[MelvinTScupper]

fwiw, we can't consider JAA's analysis of TO too much. He's an admitted homer.But, I faced up to short selling Eli, Caddy, and others, so I feel I can call out others.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I think the thing missed in all of this is that we all have different risk tolerances. If someone, at time of their draft had a choice at a second round WR between TOP and Holt, and chose Holt because it was "safer", it does not mean he was wrong.

Many win while playing it safe. However, many more win by taking chances on studs forgetting the circumstances (TO, Moss, Burress, Jordan, Ricky Williams, etc.)

Someone piqued my interested again. When did Burress and Jordan become studs?

 

[JAA]

fwiw, we can't consider JAA's analysis of TO too much. He's an admitted homer.

But, I faced up to short selling Eli, Caddy, and others, so I feel I can call out others.

Being a homer has its plusses and minuses. Minus being the perceived notion that I have rose colored glasses with respect to my teams players. The plus being that I know a lot about my teams players thus I should be able to comment more on them.I know your not picking on me, but evidence I would put forth to give my information credence would be my projections of McNabb and TO last season. Sometimes being a homer has its plusses ... sometimes it doesnt :3timeloser:

 

[MelvinTScupper]

fwiw, we can't consider JAA's analysis of TO too much. He's an admitted homer.

But, I faced up to short selling Eli, Caddy, and others, so I feel I can call out others.

Being a homer has its plusses and minuses. Minus being the perceived notion that I have rose colored glasses with respect to my teams players. The plus being that I know a lot about my teams players thus I should be able to comment more on them.I know your not picking on me, but evidence I would put forth to give my information credence would be my projections of McNabb and TO last season. Sometimes being a homer has its plusses ... sometimes it doesnt :3timeloser:

don't get me wrong here. You were dead right about TO. But please point me to a post where you bash an Eagle (or bash TO) before something was already known.

 

[JAA]

fwiw, we can't consider JAA's analysis of TO too much.  He's an admitted homer.

But, I faced up to short selling Eli, Caddy, and others, so I feel I can call out others.

Being a homer has its plusses and minuses. Minus being the perceived notion that I have rose colored glasses with respect to my teams players. The plus being that I know a lot about my teams players thus I should be able to comment more on them.I know your not picking on me, but evidence I would put forth to give my information credence would be my projections of McNabb and TO last season. Sometimes being a homer has its plusses ... sometimes it doesnt :3timeloser:

don't get me wrong here. You were dead right about TO. But please point me to a post where you bash an Eagle (or bash TO) before something was already known.

Id have to look through a helluva a lot of posts to find the one Im looking for, but I was really pissed when TO made the DMac issue personal. When he went on TV and called DMac a hypocrite. That was uncalled for and acting like a childish ###.However, my arguement has always been the TO just isnt like you or I. He is socially ######ed and just doesnt get it. I am not justifying his actions, just trying to shed some light as to why so people can understand why he does those things. Like someone who was impulsive compulsive. You wouldnt agree with them having to do what they wanted that second, but you would understand why they did it and maybe have some compassion ... maybe

 

[Marc Levin]

Good luck to the both of you and your succinct strategies.

Like I said above, for the record, TO was in my top-20 players and would have been on any of my teams had he lasted to my third round pick in any of my leagues.

I RESPECT others' risk tolerance, however, and find it more than a little amusing that anyone would bash someone for NOT wanting to take a risk on the single biggest risk in the top few rounds to get full on SUSPENDED by his own team.

 

[Christo]

I don't like TO.

I don't like TO either. But I'm sure glad he lasted to the third round in my local redraft league.