Taking a QB in the first round (1 Viewer)

[Go deep]

This year is a good year to do it because when we're talking young surfire studs there are really only 4: Rodgers, Romo, Rivers, and maybe Schaub.

Manning and Brady are too old to be considered in the first round of a dynasty if there is only one starting QB. Here's how I think the first two rounds of a dynasty startup should look something similar this year (obviously difference of opinion will abound but this might better illustrate what I meant when saying the top QBs should go along with the top RBs and WRs):

1.1 CJ

1.2 ADP

1.3 MJD

1.4 Rice

1.5 Rodgers

1.6 Andre Johnson

1.7 Fitz

1.8 Rivers

1.9 Austin

1.10 Romo

1.11 DeAngelo Williams

1.12 Gore

2.1 Turner

2.2 Peyton

2.3 Brees

2.4 Calvin Johnson

2.5 Mendenhall

2.6 Jonathan Stewart

2.7 Schaub

2.8 Brady

2.9 DeSean Jackson

2.10 Roddy White

2.11 Jamal Charles

2.12 Brandon Marshall

So if you have the mindset that you are going to get your first RB and WR before taking a QB, you miss out on the top dynasty prospects. Now, you could grab a guy like Cutler and hope for a return to the elite, or Kolb or Stafford and take even more of a gamble, but locking up one of the guys listed in the first two rounds means you are locked and loaded at QB for years and years to come, and can wait forever before taking a backup. Not saying you have to take one in round 1 or that you won't come out as well (or just about) taking one in round 2. But you have to consider the elite talent at all positions in dynasty, and factor how long you think that person will stay elite. Even CJ, with his size, probably won't be elite but for another 4-5 years at best. Rodgers could still be elite at 35 (2018) or even 38 (2021).

I do? I will gladly take Calvin Johnson and Jonathan Stewart with my first two picks. They are pretty good dynasty prospects. I will also take my chances on later round QB's, like i did in my last 4 dynasty drafts. The last one i did, a few years ago, i got Cutler in round 7, and was between two other QB's in the 12th round. i took the wrong one, and watched Rodgers go the very next pick. The league before that, everyone made fun of me because i wated until round 10 to take my first QB, Phillip Rivers. Guess what, 3-4 years from now, there are going to be 5-6 new top 10 dynasty QB's that someone could draft in round 10 this year. While everyone who took QB's in the first two rounds is playing RB/WR catchup in rounds 7-11, i will stck up on Bradfords, Kolbs, Staffords, Etc. You guys have fun with Arian Foster, Devin Aromashodu in those rounds, and you will be lucky to get them.

 

[CalBear]

Not true. By taking a QB in the first, not only are you getting your RB1 after everyone else, you are also getting your RB2 after everyone else. Actually, if i dont take Eli Manning until round 7, and you take Rodgers in round one, I am picking all my RB's and WR's one round ahead of you, until round 7.

I must be misunderstanding your numbers, the only RB1 that I know of that outscored the RB24 by 200 points is Chris Johnson. You said RB1 outscored RB24 by 200 points. What "RB1" vs "RB24" were you referring to?

Last years #1 RB(Chris Johnson), outscored the #24 RB(Kevin Smith) by 200 points, and that is non-PPR.

Yes, but that does nothing to support your assertion that you would take 12-15 RBs before the first QB. RB12 outscored RB24 by 38 points, so why would you take him before QB1? Certainly not due to VBD principles.

 

[FUBAR]

Not true. By taking a QB in the first, not only are you getting your RB1 after everyone else, you are also getting your RB2 after everyone else. Actually, if i dont take Eli Manning until round 7, and you take Rodgers in round one, I am picking all my RB's and WR's one round ahead of you, until round 7.

I must be misunderstanding your numbers, the only RB1 that I know of that outscored the RB24 by 200 points is Chris Johnson. You said RB1 outscored RB24 by 200 points. What "RB1" vs "RB24" were you referring to?

Last years #1 RB(Chris Johnson), outscored the #24 RB(Kevin Smith) by 200 points, and that is non-PPR.

sure, but you're only drafting one RB instead of one QB so the better comparison IMO is #1 RB vs. #12 RB or to put it another way, the best RB1 vs. worst RB1.

 

[brownhelmets]

The problem is that everyone thinks they have the formula to success, but there is more to it then, "I need to wait on a QB or I need to take RBs with my first two picks." Finding quality players in the mid rounds are often what has worked for me, but I have had success using various methods and failure using the same methods that have given me success.

In leagues that offer 6 pts per TD, I am not afraid to take a QB high

 

[CalBear]

Not true. By taking a QB in the first, not only are you getting your RB1 after everyone else, you are also getting your RB2 after everyone else. Actually, if i dont take Eli Manning until round 7, and you take Rodgers in round one, I am picking all my RB's and WR's one round ahead of you, until round 7.

This "analysis" makes no sense. We're both making roughly equivalent picks in rounds 2-6 in your scenario; the only difference between our teams is that I have a first-round QB and a seventh-round RB, while you have a first-round RB and a seventh-round QB. The question in redraft is which alignment will provide the most points this year. The question in dynasty has to at least include the concept of which alignment will provide the most points over the course of their respective careers. Hence the view of career-points-above-the-baseline, which I notice you didn't respond to.

 

[FUBAR]

Guess what, 3-4 years from now, there are going to be 5-6 new top 10 dynasty QB's that someone could draft in round 10 this year. While everyone who took QB's in the first two rounds is playing RB/WR catchup in rounds 7-11, i will stck up on Bradfords, Kolbs, Staffords, Etc. You guys have fun with Arian Foster, Devin Aromashodu in those rounds, and you will be lucky to get them.

True, but I'll make the leap of faith that guys like Rodgers, Rivers and Romo will continue to be top 10. Honestly, I don't think there's a "right" answer here, it's a matter of preference and knowing yourself.

 

[Go deep]

Not true. By taking a QB in the first, not only are you getting your RB1 after everyone else, you are also getting your RB2 after everyone else. Actually, if i dont take Eli Manning until round 7, and you take Rodgers in round one, I am picking all my RB's and WR's one round ahead of you, until round 7.

I must be misunderstanding your numbers, the only RB1 that I know of that outscored the RB24 by 200 points is Chris Johnson. You said RB1 outscored RB24 by 200 points. What "RB1" vs "RB24" were you referring to?

Last years #1 RB(Chris Johnson), outscored the #24 RB(Kevin Smith) by 200 points, and that is non-PPR.

Yes, but that does nothing to support your assertion that you would take 12-15 RBs before the first QB. RB12 outscored RB24 by 38 points, so why would you take him before QB1? Certainly not due to VBD principles.

But the guy who takes a QB with his first round pick will be lucky to get RB 15-20 as his #1RB, and i will have two of the top 20 RB's with my first two picks. Then i can add QB 6-12 somewhere between rounds 5-7.

 

[Chargers86]

Question: Who has a serviceable QB sitting on their waivers right now? Who has a serviceable RB?

 

[brownhelmets]

Considering the timeshare situation in the NFL with RBs now, I think a QB in th 1st round at the right spot is a valid method that can lead to success.

 

[Go deep]

Not true. By taking a QB in the first, not only are you getting your RB1 after everyone else, you are also getting your RB2 after everyone else. Actually, if i dont take Eli Manning until round 7, and you take Rodgers in round one, I am picking all my RB's and WR's one round ahead of you, until round 7.

This "analysis" makes no sense. We're both making roughly equivalent picks in rounds 2-6 in your scenario; the only difference between our teams is that I have a first-round QB and a seventh-round RB, while you have a first-round RB and a seventh-round QB. The question in redraft is which alignment will provide the most points this year. The question in dynasty has to at least include the concept of which alignment will provide the most points over the course of their respective careers. Hence the view of career-points-above-the-baseline, which I notice you didn't respond to.

Because QB's in general have a longer career than RB's in general, not just those taken in the first. Eli Manning will likely get me 5-7 more years of solid production. My first round RB will likely get me at least 3-4. Rodgers might get you at least that of Eli, and maybe more, but how dependable is your 7th round RB going to be?

 

[Chargers86]

Considering the timeshare situation in the NFL with RBs now, I think a QB in th 1st round at the right spot is a valid method that can lead to success.

Wouldn't that make it smarter to grab a RB on the better side of that timeshare?

 

[Go deep]

Considering the timeshare situation in the NFL with RBs now, I think a QB in th 1st round at the right spot is a valid method that can lead to success.

The RB timeshare can also make the QB in the first even a worse idea. Since there are only 10, maybe 12 RB's who get 70+ percent of the carries, it may make less sense to pass on one of them for a QB. If there were 32 starting RB's who got 70% of the touches, i would be more likely to take a QB in round one.

 

[Chargers86]

Considering the timeshare situation in the NFL with RBs now, I think a QB in th 1st round at the right spot is a valid method that can lead to success.

The RB timeshare can also make the QB in the first even a worse idea. Since there are only 10, maybe 12 RB's who get 70+ percent of the carries, it may make less sense to pass on one of them for a QB. If there were 32 starting RB's who got 70% of the touches, i would be more likely to take a QB in round one.

 

[Go deep]

Considering the timeshare situation in the NFL with RBs now, I think a QB in th 1st round at the right spot is a valid method that can lead to success.

The RB timeshare can also make the QB in the first even a worse idea. Since there are only 10, maybe 12 RB's who get 70+ percent of the carries, it may make less sense to pass on one of them for a QB. If there were 32 starting RB's who got 70% of the touches, i would be more likely to take a QB in round one.

 

[CalBear]

Because QB's in general have a longer career than RB's in general, not just those taken in the first. Eli Manning will likely get me 5-7 more years of solid production. My first round RB will likely get me at least 3-4. Rodgers might get you at least that of Eli, and maybe more, but how dependable is your 7th round RB going to be?

Eli Manning, in five years as a full-time starter, has a total of 53 points above the QB12 baseline. Peyton Manning, in that same time frame, has 391 points above the QB12 baseline. So for your pick to have worked out, the RB you took late in the first round has to have outscored the RB I took in the seventh by 350 points. Let's look at that 2005 season when Eli became a full-time starter. According to MFL's ADP for 2005, here's RB6-12euce McAllisterDomanick Davis (Williams)Jamal LewisCorey DillonJulius JonesClinton PortisTiki BarberNot a single one of these guys earned 350 points above the baseline since then. None has earned even 300. Most are below 100. So using this specific example, I don't see any way that your team would have been better off with one of these guys, and Eli Manning, than my team would have been with Peyton Manning and a seventh round. RBs available in the seventh round that year included Cedric Benson, Thomas Jones, and Ricky Williams, who in that time frame have performed at least as well as the group above.

 

[Go deep]

Because QB's in general have a longer career than RB's in general, not just those taken in the first. Eli Manning will likely get me 5-7 more years of solid production. My first round RB will likely get me at least 3-4. Rodgers might get you at least that of Eli, and maybe more, but how dependable is your 7th round RB going to be?

Eli Manning, in five years as a full-time starter, has a total of 53 points above the QB12 baseline. Peyton Manning, in that same time frame, has 391 points above the QB12 baseline. So for your pick to have worked out, the RB you took late in the first round has to have outscored the RB I took in the seventh by 350 points. Let's look at that 2005 season when Eli became a full-time starter. According to MFL's ADP for 2005, here's RB6-12euce McAllisterDomanick Davis (Williams)Jamal LewisCorey DillonJulius JonesClinton PortisTiki BarberNot a single one of these guys earned 350 points above the baseline since then. None has earned even 300. Most are below 100. So using this specific example, I don't see any way that your team would have been better off with one of these guys, and Eli Manning, than my team would have been with Peyton Manning and a seventh round. RBs available in the seventh round that year included Cedric Benson, Thomas Jones, and Ricky Williams, who in that time frame have performed at least as well as the group above.

Why do people keep using Peyton Manning as an example of what a first round QB will do. How about using Duante Culpeeper as an example of a first round QB.

 

[CalBear]

Why do people keep using Peytin Manning as an example of what a first round QB will do. How about using Duante Culpeeper as an example of a first round QB.

Sure, if we can use Kevan Barlow as an example of what a first round RB will do.

 

[Go deep]

Why do people keep using Peytin Manning as an example of what a first round QB will do. How about using Duante Culpeeper as an example of a first round QB.

Sure, if we can use Kevan Barlow as an example of what a first round RB will do.

OK, i didnt take Eli Manning in the 6th in 2005, i took Tom Brady. I also took Drew Brees in the 9th round. There were countless top QB's a person could have drafted in rounds 5-10 over the last several years in dynasty startups. Im sure there were some good RB's too, but nowhere near the QB's.

 

[Go deep]

Take a look at the top 12-15 dyansty QB's. Of those, all but Peyton Manning could have been drafted in rounds 6 or lower in a dynasty start-up at some point. That, or could have been drafted with a late first or early 2nd rookie pick. How many of the top 24 RB's can that be said for?

 

[sholditch]

OK, apparently mapping out the first two rounds had 0 impact on this thread. The whole point of doing that was simply to show that you take the best player available, not the best player at a certain position that's available. Let's look at rd1-2 QBs and who you would pair with them if the draft followed exactly:

1.5 Rodgers, 2.8 DeSean Jackson/Roddy White/Jamal Charles/SJax/Ryan Mathews/CJSpiller/Brandon Marshall/Reggie Wayne (not a bad set of choices for someone who has locked up a top 3 QB for the next decade)

1.8 Rivers, 2.4 Calvin/Mendenhall/Stewart + all of above

1.10 Romo, 2.2 Same, unless Turner or Gore falls which is likely

1.9 Miles Austin/D-Will/Gore/Turner, 2.3 Brees

1.11 DWill/Gore/Turner, 2.2 Peyton

1.6 AJ/Fitz/Austin/D-Will/Gore/Turner, 2.7 Schaub

1.5 Same, 2.8 Brady

so it's all about finding the sweet spot for you. If you'd rather take a Brady or Schaub and give up a little in age or durability (and in the case of Brady production) so you can get a top-tier wideout, by all means do so. Looks to me like Rivers or Romo is the sweet spot as he gets you the young stud QB plus a shot at a young stud RB in Mendy.

Main point being draft on talent vs their position + projected longevity, not just position scarcity+talent v position. If you're not comfortable with that line of thinking you probably should stick to redraft.

 

[Go deep]

OK, apparently mapping out the first two rounds had 0 impact on this thread. The whole point of doing that was simply to show that you take the best player available, not the best player at a certain position that's available. Let's look at rd1-2 QBs and who you would pair with them if the draft followed exactly:1.5 Rodgers, 2.8 DeSean Jackson/Roddy White/Jamal Charles/SJax/Ryan Mathews/CJSpiller/Brandon Marshall/Reggie Wayne (not a bad set of choices for someone who has locked up a top 3 QB for the next decade)1.8 Rivers, 2.4 Calvin/Mendenhall/Stewart + all of above1.10 Romo, 2.2 Same, unless Turner or Gore falls which is likely1.9 Miles Austin/D-Will/Gore/Turner, 2.3 Brees1.11 DWill/Gore/Turner, 2.2 Peyton1.6 AJ/Fitz/Austin/D-Will/Gore/Turner, 2.7 Schaub1.5 Same, 2.8 Bradyso it's all about finding the sweet spot for you. If you'd rather take a Brady or Schaub and give up a little in age or durability (and in the case of Brady production) so you can get a top-tier wideout, by all means do so. Looks to me like Rivers or Romo is the sweet spot as he gets you the young stud QB plus a shot at a young stud RB in Mendy.Main point being draft on talent vs their position + projected longevity, not just position scarcity+talent v position. If you're not comfortable with that line of thinking you probably should stick to redraft.

How about taking Flacco and Stafford in rounds 7-8 and then Favre in round 18-20. Top 5 QB production in 2010, and two of the best young QB's in the league after Favre finally retires.

 

[brownhelmets]

Considering the timeshare situation in the NFL with RBs now, I think a QB in th 1st round at the right spot is a valid method that can lead to success.

Wouldn't that make it smarter to grab a RB on the better side of that timeshare?

Not necessarily, considering you are getting into timeshare guys late in the first early second anyways.Late first round guys:Mendenhall- I like him but there are talks of Dwyer getting GL and SYGreene- LT and McNight on board; going this high based on just a few gamesJackson- bad team; legit main guyDeAngelo- Run first; will share with StewartA lot of ???s at that point. Seems like Rogers or Brees could be a higher reward at that point.ld pass any of those guys for a QB, but an argument can be made that a QB could be a better option there.

 

[FUBAR]

Take a look at the top 12-15 dyansty QB's. Of those, all but Peyton Manning could have been drafted in rounds 6 or lower in a dynasty start-up at some point. That, or could have been drafted with a late first or early 2nd rookie pick. How many of the top 24 RB's can that be said for?

1. 2. Johnson, Chris TEN RB 372.00

2. 11. Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB

3. 13. Peterson, Adrian MIN RB

4. 14. Rice, Ray BAL RB 288.40

5. 36. Gore, Frank SFO RB

6. 41. Charles, Jamaal KCC RB

7. 42. Jones, Thomas NYJ RB

8. 44. Williams, Ricky MIA RB

9. 46. Addai, Joseph IND RB

10. 49. Grant, Ryan GBP RB

11. 51. Jackson, Steven STL RB

12. 61. Jackson, Fred BUF RB

13. 74. Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB

14. 81. Forte, Matt CHI RB

15. 84. Mendenhall, Rashard PIT RB

16. 88. Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB

17. 95. Benson, Cedric CIN RB

18. 112. Moreno, Knowshon DEN RB

19. 113. Hightower, Tim ARI RB

20. 115. Thomas, Pierre NOS RB

21. 117. Sproles, Darren SDC RB

22. 129. Smith, Kevin DET RB

23. 130. Harrison, Jerome CLE RB

24. 137. Barber, Marion DAL RB

I count 6 that you had to use an upper half 1st round rookie pick or high vet pick in order to have acquired at some point before last year. Even CJ, MJD, and Rice went low 1st or 2nd round in many rookie drafts.

 

[Go deep]

Take a look at the top 12-15 dyansty QB's. Of those, all but Peyton Manning could have been drafted in rounds 6 or lower in a dynasty start-up at some point. That, or could have been drafted with a late first or early 2nd rookie pick. How many of the top 24 RB's can that be said for?

1. 2. Johnson, Chris TEN RB 372.00

2. 11. Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB

3. 13. Peterson, Adrian MIN RB

4. 14. Rice, Ray BAL RB 288.40

5. 36. Gore, Frank SFO RB

6. 41. Charles, Jamaal KCC RB

7. 42. Jones, Thomas NYJ RB

8. 44. Williams, Ricky MIA RB

9. 46. Addai, Joseph IND RB

10. 49. Grant, Ryan GBP RB

11. 51. Jackson, Steven STL RB

12. 61. Jackson, Fred BUF RB

13. 74. Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB

14. 81. Forte, Matt CHI RB

15. 84. Mendenhall, Rashard PIT RB

16. 88. Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB

17. 95. Benson, Cedric CIN RB

18. 112. Moreno, Knowshon DEN RB

19. 113. Hightower, Tim ARI RB

20. 115. Thomas, Pierre NOS RB

21. 117. Sproles, Darren SDC RB

22. 129. Smith, Kevin DET RB

23. 130. Harrison, Jerome CLE RB

24. 137. Barber, Marion DAL RB

I count 6 that you had to use an upper half 1st round rookie pick or high vet pick in order to have acquired at some point before last year. Even CJ, MJD, and Rice went low 1st or 2nd round in many rookie drafts.

I was actually talking about the the top ranked 24 RB's, according to FBG consensus. I dont think anyone has Ricky Williams, Tim Hightower, Sproles, etc in their top 24. I think guys like Mathews, Best, Felix Jones ,Chris Wells, etc. should be up there. One more thing, what rookie draft did you do where Ray Rice and Chris Johnson made it past pick 7-8?

 

[Instinctive]

In most of mine, CJ and Rice went like 1.07-1.10 that year.

 

[Go deep]

1. Chris Johnson

2. Adrian Peterson

3. Maurice Jones-Drew

4. Ray Rice

5. Jonathan Stewart

6. Frank Gore

7. Deangelo Williams

8. Rashard Mendenhall

9. Chris Wells

10 Steven Jackson

11. Jamal Charles

12. Ryan Mathews

13. Shonn Greene

14. Michael Turner

15. Felix Jones

16. Jahvid Best

17. Knowshon Moreno

18. CJ Spiller

19. Cedric Benson

20. Lesean Mccoy

21. Pierre Thomas

22. Matt Forte

23. Ryan Grant

24. Donald Brown

25. Ben Tate

26. Montario Hardesty

27. Joseph Addai

28. Darren Mcfadden

29. Ronnie Brown

30. Reggie Bush

How many of these 30 players can you have drafted after round 6 of a veteran draft or in the 2nd round of a rookie draft?

 

[Go deep]

In most of mine, CJ and Rice went like 1.07-1.10 that year.

I did 7 rookie drafts and saw alot of others. CJ's ADP had to be around 5, and Rice around 7. Im sure there are ADP stats available somewhere, im just too lazy too look it up.

 

[CalBear]

Look, it comes down to this: in the mid-late first round, you're choosing between known, proven producers at QB with the likelihood of long, productive careers, against RBs who are either marginally talented, splitting time, injured, or have some other question marks hanging over them.

Here's the second half top 12 RBs in 2008:

Marion Barber

Frank Gore

Clinton Portis

Marshawn Lynch

Larry Johnson

MJD

Ryan Grant

Here's 2007:

Shaun Alexander

Brian Westbrook

Willie Parker

Reggie Bush

Rudi Johnson

Laurence Maroney

Travis Henry

Here's 2006:

Edgerrin James

Rudi Johnson

Ronnie Brown

Clinton Portis

Carnell Williams

Lamont Jordan

Willis McGahee

You're making the argument that this collection of dreck would have made better dynasty picks than Peyton Manning; that your team would have been more likely to win a championship over the years with these guys than with Peyton Manning. When you look at the names, you can see just how far from reality your vision is.

 

[brownhelmets]

Look, it comes down to this: in the mid-late first round, you're choosing between known, proven producers at QB with the likelihood of long, productive careers, against RBs who are either marginally talented, splitting time, injured, or have some other question marks hanging over them.

Here's the second half top 12 RBs in 2008:

Marion Barber

Frank Gore

Clinton Portis

Marshawn Lynch

Larry Johnson

MJD

Ryan Grant

Here's 2007:

Shaun Alexander

Brian Westbrook

Willie Parker

Reggie Bush

Rudi Johnson

Laurence Maroney

Travis Henry

Here's 2006:

Edgerrin James

Rudi Johnson

Ronnie Brown

Clinton Portis

Carnell Williams

Lamont Jordan

Willis McGahee

You're making the argument that this collection of dreck would have made better dynasty picks than Peyton Manning; that your team would have been more likely to win a championship over the years with these guys than with Peyton Manning. When you look at the names, you can see just how far from reality your vision is.

 

[sholditch]

but I have a feeling that these guys aren't going to get it no matter how clearly we spell it out.

QB7-12 in 2006 passing yds rnk (2009 fantasy rk std scoring)

Tom Brady (6)

Ben Roethlisberger (8)

Philip Rivers (7)

Chad Pennington (50)

Eli Manning (9)

Rex Grossman (50+)

but really you should be comparing QB1-6 since that's who were really debating challenging RB7-12 as draftable

QB1-6 2006 pass yds (09 rank)

Drew Brees (2)

Peyton Manning (4)

Marc Bulger (33)

Jon Kitna (50+)

Carson Palmer (17)

Brett Favre (3)

I can also remember a heavy amount of skepticism regarding Pennington, Grossman, and Kitna as legit players, but you can see the staying power anyway. 4 of 6 from each group still starters in most fantasy leagues. Not one of the RBs from 2006 are considered starters anymore, with the possible exception of Caddy.

 

[Donsmith753]

Surely the only way to solve this is some friendly competition? Certain posters have to take RB's in the 1st and can't take a QB before the 7th. Other posters have to take a QB in the first. We'll see how it works out?

 

[Go deep]

Look, it comes down to this: in the mid-late first round, you're choosing between known, proven producers at QB with the likelihood of long, productive careers, against RBs who are either marginally talented, splitting time, injured, or have some other question marks hanging over them.

Here's the second half top 12 RBs in 2008:

Marion Barber

Frank Gore

Clinton Portis

Marshawn Lynch

Larry Johnson

MJD

Ryan Grant

Here's 2007:

Shaun Alexander

Brian Westbrook

Willie Parker

Reggie Bush

Rudi Johnson

Laurence Maroney

Travis Henry

Here's 2006:

Edgerrin James

Rudi Johnson

Ronnie Brown

Clinton Portis

Carnell Williams

Lamont Jordan

Willis McGahee

You're making the argument that this collection of dreck would have made better dynasty picks than Peyton Manning; that your team would have been more likely to win a championship over the years with these guys than with Peyton Manning. When you look at the names, you can see just how far from reality your vision is.

And if i am picking question marks at RB in round 1, what are you getting in later rounds? I can still get a proven producer at QB in rounds 6-10. Maybe not as good as Rodgers, but the gap is alot closer than my RB's and yours.You keep using Peyton Manning as an example, but fact is we are not drafting 6 years ago. Sure, if we are doing a dynasty start-up now for 2004-2009, i would take Peyton Manning over Lamont Jordan(actually, i would have done that back then too) but i would have taken Steven Jackson over Peyton Manning, which is something i actually did in a dynasty startup 5 years ago.

Another thing people are not taking into consoderation is a players trade value after a draft. RB's ALWAYS carry more trade value than QB's. I could easily take Gore and Jonathan Stewart with my first two picks. If my rounds 6,9 and 11 QB's dont work out for me, i could always trade Gore for a good QB plus something else.

I dont know how other owners run their dynasty teams, but i never hold onto a RB past the age of 28-29, and have had pretty good success at flipping players(of all positions) for younger, unproven players/draft picks. If youre the kind of guy who never trades, then maybe a QB is for you in the first round, although thats certainly not going to help with your RB problem.

 

[Go deep]

but I have a feeling that these guys aren't going to get it no matter how clearly we spell it out.

Funny, i was thinking the same thing anout you guys. The only difference is my way is better than yours.

 

[Go deep]

Surely the only way to solve this is some friendly competition? Certain posters have to take RB's in the 1st and can't take a QB before the 7th. Other posters have to take a QB in the first. We'll see how it works out?

I would love to do this, but i doubt it would prove anything one way or another.

 

[FUBAR]

Take a look at the top 12-15 dyansty QB's. Of those, all but Peyton Manning could have been drafted in rounds 6 or lower in a dynasty start-up at some point. That, or could have been drafted with a late first or early 2nd rookie pick. How many of the top 24 RB's can that be said for?

1. 2. Johnson, Chris TEN RB 372.00

2. 11. Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB

3. 13. Peterson, Adrian MIN RB

4. 14. Rice, Ray BAL RB 288.40

5. 36. Gore, Frank SFO RB

6. 41. Charles, Jamaal KCC RB

7. 42. Jones, Thomas NYJ RB

8. 44. Williams, Ricky MIA RB

9. 46. Addai, Joseph IND RB

10. 49. Grant, Ryan GBP RB

11. 51. Jackson, Steven STL RB

12. 61. Jackson, Fred BUF RB

13. 74. Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB

14. 81. Forte, Matt CHI RB

15. 84. Mendenhall, Rashard PIT RB

16. 88. Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB

17. 95. Benson, Cedric CIN RB

18. 112. Moreno, Knowshon DEN RB

19. 113. Hightower, Tim ARI RB

20. 115. Thomas, Pierre NOS RB

21. 117. Sproles, Darren SDC RB

22. 129. Smith, Kevin DET RB

23. 130. Harrison, Jerome CLE RB

24. 137. Barber, Marion DAL RB

I count 6 that you had to use an upper half 1st round rookie pick or high vet pick in order to have acquired at some point before last year. Even CJ, MJD, and Rice went low 1st or 2nd round in many rookie drafts.

I was actually talking about the the top ranked 24 RB's, according to FBG consensus. I dont think anyone has Ricky Williams, Tim Hightower, Sproles, etc in their top 24. I think guys like Mathews, Best, Felix Jones ,Chris Wells, etc. should be up there. One more thing, what rookie draft did you do where Ray Rice and Chris Johnson made it past pick 7-8?

See, I thought we were talking about production.
One league, each player available twice - CJ went equivalent to 1.12 and 1.13 (2.01 in a 12 team), Rice went 1.10 and 1.15 (2.03)

1.01 1. Michigan Monarchs McFadden, Darren OAK RB ® Sun Apr 27 9:48:30 p.m. ET 2008 120.40

1.02 2. Delphi Oracles McFadden, Darren OAK RB ® Sun Apr 27 10:15:50 p.m. ET 2008 120.40

1.03 3. Canton Legends Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB ® Sun Apr 27 10:46:31 p.m. ET 2008 158.30

1.04 4. Bucs Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB ® Sun Apr 27 10:48:31 p.m. ET 2008 158.30

1.05 5. Coney's Combo Mendenhall, Rashard PIT RB ® Sun Apr 27 10:58:45 p.m. ET 2008 10.50

1.06 6. Gridiron Eagles Mendenhall, Rashard PIT RB ® Sun Apr 27 11:27:23 p.m. ET 2008 10.50

1.07 7. Rock Bottom Smith, Kevin DET RB ® Mon Apr 28 7:00:06 a.m. ET 2008 193.40

1.08 8. Cheeseburger and Fries Forte, Matt CHI RB ® Mon Apr 28 7:00:06 a.m. ET 2008 277.30 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List

1.09 9. Virginia Beaches Thomas, Devin WAS WR ® Mon Apr 28 7:00:06 a.m. ET 2008 45.00 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List

1.10 10. Big Money Hustlers Jones, Felix DAL RB ® Mon Apr 28 8:15:27 a.m. ET 2008 61.20

1.11 11. The Hoff's Forte, Matt CHI RB ® Mon Apr 28 10:52:46 a.m. ET 2008 277.30

1.12 12. The Kinky Wizards Thomas, Devin WAS WR ® Mon Apr 28 12:56:03 p.m. ET 2008 45.00 YIKES- Not the pick I thought I'd be making, but I think my target(s) will still be there at my 1.19 pick.

1.13 13. Canton Legends Hardy, James BUF WR ® Mon Apr 28 1:23:46 p.m. ET 2008 29.50

1.14 14. Bucs Hardy, James BUF WR ® Mon Apr 28 3:39:41 p.m. ET 2008 29.50

1.15 15. The Hoff's Jones, Felix DAL RB ® Mon Apr 28 3:39:41 p.m. ET 2008 61.20 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List

1.16 16. Coney's Combo Smith, Kevin DET RB ® Mon Apr 28 7:25:57 p.m. ET 2008 193.40

1.17 17. Bucs Avery, Donnie STL WR ® Mon Apr 28 7:42:13 p.m. ET 2008 146.60

1.18 18. Garden State Gryphons Ryan, Matt ATL QB ® Tue Apr 29 12:05:27 a.m. ET 2008 236.20

1.19 19. The Kinky Wizards Rice, Ray BAL RB ® Tue Apr 29 12:05:27 a.m. ET 2008 89.70 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List

1.20 20. Silver Bullets Ryan, Matt ATL QB ® Tue Apr 29 12:05:27 a.m. ET 2008 236.20 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List

1.21 21. Coney's Combo Kelly, Malcolm WAS WR ® Tue Apr 29 6:25:07 p.m. ET 2008

1.22 22. Parken Lions Avery, Donnie STL WR ® Tue Apr 29 12:21:19 p.m. ET 2008 146.60

1.23 23. Reds Kelly, Malcolm WAS WR ® Tue Apr 29 12:46:36 p.m. ET 2008 4.20

1.24 24. OZ Johnson, Chris TEN RB ® Tue Apr 29 12:54:43 p.m. ET 2008 229.40

1.25 25. Silver Bullets Johnson, Chris TEN RB ® Tue Apr 29 2:16:49 p.m. ET 2008 229.40

1.26 26. Cheeseburger and Fries Sweed, Limas PIT WR ® Tue Apr 29 2:16:49 p.m. ET 2008 10.90 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List

1.27 27. Coney's Combo Sweed, Limas PIT WR ® Tue Apr 29 3:30:55 p.m. ET 2008 10.90

1.28 28. Jerry's Kids Nelson, Jordy GBP WR ® Tue Apr 29 3:33:31 p.m. ET 2008 80.80 was hopion for sweed, but will take drivers replacement

1.29 29. Virginia Beaches Jackson, DeSean PHI WR ® Tue Apr 29 3:55:13 p.m. ET 2008 185.00

1.30 30. Michigan Monarchs Rice, Ray BAL RB ® Tue Apr 29 6:06:58 p.m. ET 2008

*** SPOILER ALERT! Click this link to display the potential spoiler text in this box. ***");document.close();

 

[Go deep]

Take a look at the top 12-15 dyansty QB's. Of those, all but Peyton Manning could have been drafted in rounds 6 or lower in a dynasty start-up at some point. That, or could have been drafted with a late first or early 2nd rookie pick. How many of the top 24 RB's can that be said for?

1. 2. Johnson, Chris TEN RB 372.00

2. 11. Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB

3. 13. Peterson, Adrian MIN RB

4. 14. Rice, Ray BAL RB 288.40

5. 36. Gore, Frank SFO RB

6. 41. Charles, Jamaal KCC RB

7. 42. Jones, Thomas NYJ RB

8. 44. Williams, Ricky MIA RB

9. 46. Addai, Joseph IND RB

10. 49. Grant, Ryan GBP RB

11. 51. Jackson, Steven STL RB

12. 61. Jackson, Fred BUF RB

13. 74. Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB

14. 81. Forte, Matt CHI RB

15. 84. Mendenhall, Rashard PIT RB

16. 88. Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB

17. 95. Benson, Cedric CIN RB

18. 112. Moreno, Knowshon DEN RB

19. 113. Hightower, Tim ARI RB

20. 115. Thomas, Pierre NOS RB

21. 117. Sproles, Darren SDC RB

22. 129. Smith, Kevin DET RB

23. 130. Harrison, Jerome CLE RB

24. 137. Barber, Marion DAL RB

I count 6 that you had to use an upper half 1st round rookie pick or high vet pick in order to have acquired at some point before last year. Even CJ, MJD, and Rice went low 1st or 2nd round in many rookie drafts.

I was actually talking about the the top ranked 24 RB's, according to FBG consensus. I dont think anyone has Ricky Williams, Tim Hightower, Sproles, etc in their top 24. I think guys like Mathews, Best, Felix Jones ,Chris Wells, etc. should be up there. One more thing, what rookie draft did you do where Ray Rice and Chris Johnson made it past pick 7-8?

See, I thought we were talking about production.


One league, each player available twice - CJ went equivalent to 1.12 and 1.13 (2.01 in a 12 team), Rice went 1.10 and 1.15 (2.03)

1.01 1. Michigan Monarchs McFadden, Darren OAK RB ® Sun Apr 27 9:48:30 p.m. ET 2008 120.40

1.02 2. Delphi Oracles McFadden, Darren OAK RB ® Sun Apr 27 10:15:50 p.m. ET 2008 120.40

1.03 3. Canton Legends Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB ® Sun Apr 27 10:46:31 p.m. ET 2008 158.30

1.04 4. Bucs Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB ® Sun Apr 27 10:48:31 p.m. ET 2008 158.30

1.05 5. Coney's Combo Mendenhall, Rashard PIT RB ® Sun Apr 27 10:58:45 p.m. ET 2008 10.50

1.06 6. Gridiron Eagles Mendenhall, Rashard PIT RB ® Sun Apr 27 11:27:23 p.m. ET 2008 10.50

1.07 7. Rock Bottom Smith, Kevin DET RB ® Mon Apr 28 7:00:06 a.m. ET 2008 193.40

1.08 8. Cheeseburger and Fries Forte, Matt CHI RB ® Mon Apr 28 7:00:06 a.m. ET 2008 277.30 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List

1.09 9. Virginia Beaches Thomas, Devin WAS WR ® Mon Apr 28 7:00:06 a.m. ET 2008 45.00 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List

1.10 10. Big Money Hustlers Jones, Felix DAL RB ® Mon Apr 28 8:15:27 a.m. ET 2008 61.20

1.11 11. The Hoff's Forte, Matt CHI RB ® Mon Apr 28 10:52:46 a.m. ET 2008 277.30

1.12 12. The Kinky Wizards Thomas, Devin WAS WR ® Mon Apr 28 12:56:03 p.m. ET 2008 45.00 YIKES- Not the pick I thought I'd be making, but I think my target(s) will still be there at my 1.19 pick.

1.13 13. Canton Legends Hardy, James BUF WR ® Mon Apr 28 1:23:46 p.m. ET 2008 29.50

1.14 14. Bucs Hardy, James BUF WR ® Mon Apr 28 3:39:41 p.m. ET 2008 29.50

1.15 15. The Hoff's Jones, Felix DAL RB ® Mon Apr 28 3:39:41 p.m. ET 2008 61.20 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List

1.16 16. Coney's Combo Smith, Kevin DET RB ® Mon Apr 28 7:25:57 p.m. ET 2008 193.40

1.17 17. Bucs Avery, Donnie STL WR ® Mon Apr 28 7:42:13 p.m. ET 2008 146.60

1.18 18. Garden State Gryphons Ryan, Matt ATL QB ® Tue Apr 29 12:05:27 a.m. ET 2008 236.20

1.19 19. The Kinky Wizards Rice, Ray BAL RB ® Tue Apr 29 12:05:27 a.m. ET 2008 89.70 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List

1.20 20. Silver Bullets Ryan, Matt ATL QB ® Tue Apr 29 12:05:27 a.m. ET 2008 236.20 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List

1.21 21. Coney's Combo Kelly, Malcolm WAS WR ® Tue Apr 29 6:25:07 p.m. ET 2008

1.22 22. Parken Lions Avery, Donnie STL WR ® Tue Apr 29 12:21:19 p.m. ET 2008 146.60

1.23 23. Reds Kelly, Malcolm WAS WR ® Tue Apr 29 12:46:36 p.m. ET 2008 4.20

1.24 24. OZ Johnson, Chris TEN RB ® Tue Apr 29 12:54:43 p.m. ET 2008 229.40

1.25 25. Silver Bullets Johnson, Chris TEN RB ® Tue Apr 29 2:16:49 p.m. ET 2008 229.40

1.26 26. Cheeseburger and Fries Sweed, Limas PIT WR ® Tue Apr 29 2:16:49 p.m. ET 2008 10.90 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List

1.27 27. Coney's Combo Sweed, Limas PIT WR ® Tue Apr 29 3:30:55 p.m. ET 2008 10.90

1.28 28. Jerry's Kids Nelson, Jordy GBP WR ® Tue Apr 29 3:33:31 p.m. ET 2008 80.80 was hopion for sweed, but will take drivers replacement

1.29 29. Virginia Beaches Jackson, DeSean PHI WR ® Tue Apr 29 3:55:13 p.m. ET 2008 185.00

1.30 30. Michigan Monarchs Rice, Ray BAL RB ® Tue Apr 29 6:06:58 p.m. ET 2008

*** SPOILER ALERT! Click this link to display the potential spoiler text in this box. ***");document.close();

You can draft Ricky Williams and Thomas Jones over Chris Wells and Ryan Mathews if you prefer past production. I prefer future production however.Well, i see why you can get away with drafting QB's in the first round in a league like that. Malcolm Kelly over Chris Johnson, not once, but twice!!

 

[FUBAR]

You can draft Ricky Williams and Thomas Jones over Chris Wells and Ryan Mathews if you prefer past production. I prefer future production however.Well, i see why you can get away with drafting QB's in the first round in a league like that. Malcolm Kelly over Chris Johnson, not once, but twice!!

I agree on the Kelly comment. As to the other, we're talking about whether you can win taking a QB early and get RBs later, not whether you can make your team look pretty for the future.

 

[CalBear]

And if i am picking question marks at RB in round 1, what are you getting in later rounds? I can still get a proven producer at QB in rounds 6-10. Maybe not as good as Rodgers, but the gap is alot closer than my RB's and yours.

You keep asserting this, but you haven't done anything to prove it, and a number of people have provided evidence that your assertion is untrue.

 

[Go deep]

And if i am picking question marks at RB in round 1, what are you getting in later rounds? I can still get a proven producer at QB in rounds 6-10. Maybe not as good as Rodgers, but the gap is alot closer than my RB's and yours.

You keep asserting this, but you haven't done anything to prove it, and a number of people have provided evidence that your assertion is untrue.

I sure have, you just havnt been paying attention. It doesnt matter though, it fine that we disagree. If everyone drafted the same way, FF wouldnt be much fun. Plus i count on people taking QB's in round one in order to push better RB's and WR's to me in later rounds.

 

[Go deep]

You can draft Ricky Williams and Thomas Jones over Chris Wells and Ryan Mathews if you prefer past production. I prefer future production however.

Well, i see why you can get away with drafting QB's in the first round in a league like that. Malcolm Kelly over Chris Johnson, not once, but twice!!

I agree on the Kelly comment. As to the other, we're talking about whether you can win taking a QB early and get RBs later, not whether you can make your team look pretty for the future.

I was just making a point. That you dont draft based on last years production. Also, i never said you couldnt win by taking a QB in the first, i just said it makes it harder.

 

[Instinctive]

Surely the only way to solve this is some friendly competition? Certain posters have to take RB's in the 1st and can't take a QB before the 7th. Other posters have to take a QB in the first. We'll see how it works out?

I would love to get involved in this

 

[Go deep]

Surely the only way to solve this is some friendly competition? Certain posters have to take RB's in the 1st and can't take a QB before the 7th. Other posters have to take a QB in the first. We'll see how it works out?

I would love to get involved in this

Lets do it, like i said, i doubt it would prove much, but even if it didnt, it would still be fun.How about an 8 round draft, assuming standard scoring, non-ppr, start 1-2-3-1+1 flex? Also, i dont think restricting certain teams to not take QB's until round 7 would not be fair. How about not taking a QB in the first 3 rounds?

 

[Instinctive]

Surely the only way to solve this is some friendly competition? Certain posters have to take RB's in the 1st and can't take a QB before the 7th. Other posters have to take a QB in the first. We'll see how it works out?

I would love to get involved in this

Lets do it, like i said, i doubt it would prove much, but even if it didnt, it would still be fun.How about an 8 round draft, assuming standard scoring, non-ppr, start 1-2-3-1+1 flex?

An 8 round draft? with 8 starters?

 

[The Real Hipster Doofus]

Surely the only way to solve this is some friendly competition? Certain posters have to take RB's in the 1st and can't take a QB before the 7th. Other posters have to take a QB in the first. We'll see how it works out?

I would love to get involved in this

Lets do it, like i said, i doubt it would prove much, but even if it didnt, it would still be fun.How about an 8 round draft, assuming standard scoring, non-ppr, start 1-2-3-1+1 flex?

Huh??? The topic is about a startup dynasty draft, what startup dynasty drafts do you know that go 8 rounds?

 

[Go deep]

Surely the only way to solve this is some friendly competition? Certain posters have to take RB's in the 1st and can't take a QB before the 7th. Other posters have to take a QB in the first. We'll see how it works out?

I would love to get involved in this

Lets do it, like i said, i doubt it would prove much, but even if it didnt, it would still be fun.How about an 8 round draft, assuming standard scoring, non-ppr, start 1-2-3-1+1 flex?

An 8 round draft? with 8 starters?

Its just for fun, but i would be willing to do more. Im open to any ideas someone might have. 12 team of course.

 

[Go deep]

Surely the only way to solve this is some friendly competition? Certain posters have to take RB's in the 1st and can't take a QB before the 7th. Other posters have to take a QB in the first. We'll see how it works out?

I would love to get involved in this

Lets do it, like i said, i doubt it would prove much, but even if it didnt, it would still be fun.How about an 8 round draft, assuming standard scoring, non-ppr, start 1-2-3-1+1 flex?

Huh??? The topic is about a startup dynasty draft, what startup dynasty drafts do you know that go 8 rounds?

Like i said, im more than willing to do more, i was just throwing out some ideas.

 

[Go deep]

Why dont we get 12 guys together and then we can set the details from there. First come first serve, however, we need at least one guy who is going to take a QB in the first round.

 

[Instinctive]

I agree on 12 team.

Perhaps 1-2-3-1 with 2 flexes-1 W/R and 1 W/T. That would be really interesting. Maybe we give a half ppr for TEs.

We could do a superflex league, but that would skew it into the favor of the QB guys.

That's 8 starters plus D/K if we want, perhaps we do a 21 round draft? Is that too much? I would go up to 25 I think.

 

[Instinctive]

Why dont we get 12 guys together and then we can set the details from there. First come first serve, however, we need at least one guy who is going to take a QB in the first round.

I'll take Rodgers, pick 8th or 9th overall is about his ADP right?

 

[Go deep]

I agree on 12 team.Perhaps 1-2-3-1 with 2 flexes-1 W/R and 1 W/T. That would be really interesting. Maybe we give a half ppr for TEs.We could do a superflex league, but that would skew it into the favor of the QB guys.That's 8 starters plus D/K if we want, perhaps we do a 21 round draft? Is that too much? I would go up to 25 I think.

Adding 2 flex would put even more demand on RB's and less on QB's, so maybe we should just keep it to 6 RB's/WR's. Kicker and D's and 21 rounds sounds good to me.