Taking a QB in the first round (1 Viewer)

[Donsmith753]

I'm definately up for this and I'm more than happy to take a QB in the first.

 

[Go deep]

Why dont we get 12 guys together and then we can set the details from there. First come first serve, however, we need at least one guy who is going to take a QB in the first round.

I'll take Rodgers, pick 8th or 9th overall is about his ADP right?

I would have prefered one of the guys who said he would take him afetr the top 4 RB's and the two WR's, but 8 would be fine with me too.

 

[Go deep]

I'm definately up for this and I'm more than happy to take a QB in the first.

Perfect, thats two guys who will take QB's in the first, now we just need 9 other guys who are just ready to draft any player from any draft spot. In order for me to stand by my original point, i probably shouldnt draft in the first 6 spots. I was arguing i would take 12-15 RB's before Rodgers, so drafting Chris Johnson or Peterson wouldnt do much to support my theory.

 

[Instinctive]

Why dont we get 12 guys together and then we can set the details from there. First come first serve, however, we need at least one guy who is going to take a QB in the first round.

I'll take Rodgers, pick 8th or 9th overall is about his ADP right?

I would have prefered one of the guys who said he would take him afetr the top 4 RB's and the two WR's, but 8 would be fine with me too.

I'll take him 7 then. One spot won't make too much of a difference.

 

[Go deep]

Lets start a list of participants.

Go Deep

Donsmith753 (QB in first round)

Instinctive(QB in first round?)

sholditch

ookook

J-Dawg

6 to go.

 

[Donsmith753]

If I'm taking a Qb in the first it'd be Brees, it'd have to be after Rodgers though. Where are we going to run this? Who will commish? I'm managing another dynasty league and so can't manage.

 

[Go deep]

Why dont we get 12 guys together and then we can set the details from there. First come first serve, however, we need at least one guy who is going to take a QB in the first round.

I'll take Rodgers, pick 8th or 9th overall is about his ADP right?

I would have prefered one of the guys who said he would take him afetr the top 4 RB's and the two WR's, but 8 would be fine with me too.

I'll take him 7 then. One spot won't make too much of a difference.

8 is fair, youre right, it doesnt make that big of a difference.

 

[Go deep]

If I'm taking a Qb in the first it'd be Brees, it'd have to be after Rodgers though. Where are we going to run this? Who will commish? I'm managing another dynasty league and so can't manage.

I can run it, i am open to ideas as to where. I was thinking the Mock drafts R us board.

 

[Go deep]

If I'm taking a Qb in the first it'd be Brees, it'd have to be after Rodgers though. Where are we going to run this? Who will commish? I'm managing another dynasty league and so can't manage.

Instinctive has agreed to take Rodgers at the 8 spot. What would be a fair spot for Brees, 10?

 

[Instinctive]

If Donsmith wants Brees, and Go Deep wants to go not inside the top 4 to prove his point, maybe we let you guys pick between 10-12 slots?

 

[Donsmith753]

All sounds good to me.

 

[Instinctive]

We could do it on FleaFlicker too. It's free and pretty flexible with any league requirements we want.

 

[Go deep]

If Donsmith wants Brees, and Go Deep wants to go not inside the top 4 to prove his point, maybe we let you guys pick between 10-12 slots?

Perfect, not we just need to fill the other 9 spots. Shouldnt take long, who doesnt love doing dynasty start up drafts, even if they are not real.

 

[Go deep]

We could do it on FleaFlicker too. It's free and pretty flexible with any league requirements we want.

Sounds good to me, however, i am not familiar with it.

 

[Instinctive]

We could do it on FleaFlicker too. It's free and pretty flexible with any league requirements we want.

Sounds good to me, however, i am not familiar with it.

If we just want the draft and then to evaluate teams, we could do it here on FBG and then let the SP see the finished product and vote on it.

 

[sholditch]

Lets start a list of participants.Go DeepDonsmith753 (QB in first round)Instinctive(QB in first round?)9 to go.

I'm in and will go either way. I can be your third QB in the first guy on just let me draft according to BPA.

 

[Donsmith753]

ESPNs free, could use that.

Isn't the point that we work out who's team is best at the end of the season. A team that looks good on paper may end up being garbage.

 

[Go deep]

We could do it on FleaFlicker too. It's free and pretty flexible with any league requirements we want.

Sounds good to me, however, i am not familiar with it.

If we just want the draft and then to evaluate teams, we could do it here on FBG and then let the SP see the finished product and vote on it.

Thats sounds good, although the guys with the first 4-5 picks should win, getting one of the top 4 RB's is a huge advantage. If i remember, i would like to bump this thread after the season, and see who has the best team then. i doubt anyone cares by then, but that would give us a micu better idea on who the true winners are.Either way, even if it doesnt prove anything, it should still be fun.

 

[Go deep]

Lets start a list of participants.Go DeepDonsmith753 (QB in first round)Instinctive(QB in first round?)9 to go.

I'm in and will go either way. I can be your third QB in the first guy on just let me draft according to BPA.

Youre in sir, and i have no problem letting you just go ahead and draft BAP.

 

[Go deep]

ESPNs free, could use that.

Isn't the point that we work out who's team is best at the end of the season. A team that looks good on paper may end up being garbage.

Exactly, the guys who are arguing the Qb in the first are going to vote for the guys who took QB's in the first regardless, and the other way around.

 

[ookook]

I am interested.

 

[sholditch]

Whole point of this thread though is that teams taking QB early are set up better for the long haul. The only real way is to evaluate this draft in 2-3 years time and even then over the span of the next 5-6 years. Not sure what if anything this little test will prove. Also, I'd prefer a forum draft to a live one.

 

[Instinctive]

Let's run it as a real dynasty then. I'm ok with ESPN or Flea, whatever works. They're both free and can give us what we need. ESPN is much better for drafting, but if we slow draft in the draft forum it won't matter.

 

[Go deep]

Whole point of this thread though is that teams taking QB early are set up better for the long haul. The only real way is to evaluate this draft in 2-3 years time and even then over the span of the next 5-6 years. Not sure what if anything this little test will prove. Also, I'd prefer a forum draft to a live one.

I agree, we wont be able to tell much, but maybe some of us will at least learn something from it. As good as i am at FF i am always up for learning more.We may get an idea after this year, sure it wont prove anything, but we could have a better idea.

 

[Go deep]

I am interested.

What are your qualifications? Just kidding, youre in.

 

[Donsmith753]

Will we get started as soon as we've got 12 guys? I don't want to suggest that the other teams will be irrelevant but they are really more of a filler to help solve this argument.

Looking forward to getting started with this.

 

[Go deep]

Will we get started as soon as we've got 12 guys? I don't want to suggest that the other teams will be irrelevant but they are really more of a filler to help solve this argument.Looking forward to getting started with this.

Yeah, i will want to get started ASAP. Is someone willing to set up a draft on one of the free sites? i would also like to use a message board so we can comment as we go. I always like to hear what other people are thinking. Like i said, we may as well learn something from this if nothing more.

 

[Go deep]

For everyone who is going to do this, please make sure you are available for the duration of the draft. If you have time issues, please dont join.

 

[No Way Jose]

Here is a startup where 4 QB's were taken in the first round.....These are all friends of mine that I would say half are novice players.

Startup ppr

 

[Donsmith753]

http://games.espn.go.com/ffl/welcome/createleague

Is "league manager" what we're looking for here?

 

[SSOG]

You keep talking about not having to worry about the QB position if you draft one in the first round. I have never drafted a QB anywhere in the first 5 rounds of any start-up dynasty draft, and i never had to worry about the QB position. I can draft Eli Manning in the 6th round, and not have to worry about the QB position for 5+years. I can add Flacco in round 8, and Bradford in round 11, and my QB's are set for a long time.

You also say that you can just get RB's later, but when? Especially if you dont take one for the first 4 rounds? So you plan to suck the first year, and then take a rookie RB with your 1st round rookie pick? What happens if that rookie RB turns into any number of rookie RB's that dont pan out. Youre team will then what, still suck in year two? So do you plan on just sucking until you finally hit on a RB in the rookie draft?

Your philosophy puzzles me. Take a QB in the first, so you dont have to worry about the easiest position to fix for the next 6-8 years. However, neglect the position where acquiring good players is almost impossible to do, because why, the have more turnover?

I doubt you will find anyone who drafts for the future more than I, so the redraft talk is silly. If anything, drafting a QB in the first is probably smarter in redraft than dynasty. If it doesnt work out, you only have to suffer for a year.

Saying you can draft Eli Manning and then not have to worry about your QB position for 5+ years is true... if, of course, you're not worried about the fact that EVERY SINGLE TEAM IN THE LEAGUE WILL BE OUTSCORING YOU AT THE QB POSITION. Over the last 4 years, Manning has finished 10th, 13th, 13th, and 10th. Aaron Rodgers outscored Eli Manning by as much last year as Ray Rice outscored Willis McGahee- meaning Rice in the 1st and Eli in the 6th would have netted you as many points as Rodgers in the 1st and McGahee in the 12th. The difference between Rodgers (QB1) and Manning (QB10) last year was the same as the difference between Thomas Jones (RB6) and Darren Sproles (RB34). I would be as worried if my starting QB was Eli Manning as I would be if my starting RBs were Jerome Harrison and Darren McFadden. Again, you don't seem to realize that Aaron Rodgers was THIRD IN SEASON-ENDING VBD LAST YEAR. He was more valuable than Ray Rice or Maurice Jones-Drew. As for when you can acquire RBs... there are still RBs available outside of the first four rounds. Tons of them, in fact. I don't have any dynasty ADP data, but going off of the FBGs staff rankings submitted in the last month, here is a brief list of RBs available outside of the top 48- Ronnie Brown, Joseph Addai, C.J. Spiller, Donald Brown, Ben Tate, Montario Hardesty, Michael Bush, Marion Barber, Tashard Choice, Fred Jackson, etc. You've got some prior studs with injury concerns, some very highly ranked rookies, a guy who was a top-4 rookie draft pick last year (and still the heir apparent to the explosive Indy offense), you've got Addai (who has been a top-12 RB in 3 of the last 4 seasons, including an RB9 finish last year). Lots of quality RBs. They have some warts, but if you shotgun enough RBs with warts, you'll likely find someone. And if you don't, there's always trade. And if you can't trade, there are the late-season gems. And if you miss out on them, there's next year's rookie draft. And if those guys bust, then there's trades next year, and next year's gems, and the year after's rookie draft, and trades the year after, and the year after's late-season gems, and so on.

And pointing out that rookie RBs can bust is the height of silliness. Your reasoning is "rookie RBs can bust, so in the startup draft spend a first or second round draft pick on a sure thing. You know, like Matt Forte or Steve Slaton". Or, worse, you're advocating taking a 27-year-old RB with an extensive injury history (Steven Jackson) over a 26-year-old QB who has the 4th most VBD of any player over the last two years combined, behind Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, and Drew Brees. Oh yeah, by the way, that Drew Brees guy? He plays QB, too.

I agree with the longevity issue, but not with the "I don't have to worry about" stuff.

What I think is being undervalued is how easy it is to draft rookie QBs relatively late and hold onto them. When did Ryan and Flacco go in dynasty rookie drafts? Stafford? Henne? Even better, Freemen was there in the late 3rd last year.

Ryan and Stafford went in about the same place as Ray Rice, Maurice Jones-Drew, and Chris Johnson. Flacco went about where Desean Jackson was going. Henne and Freeman were available a bit later, as were Brian Brohm and Brodie Croyle. Also worth pointing out that the highest finish by any QB in that entire group so far was Matt Ryan's QB15 finish as a rookie. Those are guys who would be getting you KILLED for years if you were forced to rely on them. They might develop into a quality starter one day, but the ranks of quality starters are currently pretty full. They've got a LONG way to go if they want to catch up to Rodgers, Rivers, Romo, Schaub, Brees, Manning, Brady, etc.

Not true. By taking a QB in the first, not only are you getting your RB1 after everyone else, you are also getting your RB2 after everyone else. Actually, if i dont take Eli Manning until round 7, and you take Rodgers in round one, I am picking all my RB's and WR's one round ahead of you, until round 7.

Not true. The difference between QB/RB/WR/WR/RB and RB/RB/WR/WR/QB is only two players- the QB, and one of the two RBs (the one who moves from the 1st to the 5th). The other RB remains exactly the same. Sure, the arbitrary role we assign to him (RB1, RB2, whatever) might change, but in terms of total changes to the team the only difference is the QB and ONE of the two RBs.

And if i am picking question marks at RB in round 1, what are you getting in later rounds? I can still get a proven producer at QB in rounds 6-10. Maybe not as good as Rodgers, but the gap is alot closer than my RB's and yours.

Unless your RB is Chris Johnson or Adrian Peterson, then no, the gap is SUBSTANTIALLY WIDER between Rodgers and Eli than it is between a bottom-half-of-the-first RB and a later-round RB. As I said earlier, the difference between Aaron Rodgers and Eli Manning last year was the same as the difference between Thomas Jones and Darren Sproles. Nobody is saying that you should take Rodgers over Chris Johnson or Adrian Peterson, here... we're saying that you should take him over DeAngelo Williams (a 27-year old RB in a timeshare coming off an injury) or Knowshon Moreno (a guy with a 3.8 career ypc).

 

[J-Dawg]

I'm interested and would take Rodgers as high as 5th.

 

[Go deep]

You keep talking about not having to worry about the QB position if you draft one in the first round. I have never drafted a QB anywhere in the first 5 rounds of any start-up dynasty draft, and i never had to worry about the QB position. I can draft Eli Manning in the 6th round, and not have to worry about the QB position for 5+years. I can add Flacco in round 8, and Bradford in round 11, and my QB's are set for a long time.

You also say that you can just get RB's later, but when? Especially if you dont take one for the first 4 rounds? So you plan to suck the first year, and then take a rookie RB with your 1st round rookie pick? What happens if that rookie RB turns into any number of rookie RB's that dont pan out. Youre team will then what, still suck in year two? So do you plan on just sucking until you finally hit on a RB in the rookie draft?

Your philosophy puzzles me. Take a QB in the first, so you dont have to worry about the easiest position to fix for the next 6-8 years. However, neglect the position where acquiring good players is almost impossible to do, because why, the have more turnover?

I doubt you will find anyone who drafts for the future more than I, so the redraft talk is silly. If anything, drafting a QB in the first is probably smarter in redraft than dynasty. If it doesnt work out, you only have to suffer for a year.

Saying you can draft Eli Manning and then not have to worry about your QB position for 5+ years is true... if, of course, you're not worried about the fact that EVERY SINGLE TEAM IN THE LEAGUE WILL BE OUTSCORING YOU AT THE QB POSITION. Over the last 4 years, Manning has finished 10th, 13th, 13th, and 10th. Aaron Rodgers outscored Eli Manning by as much last year as Ray Rice outscored Willis McGahee- meaning Rice in the 1st and Eli in the 6th would have netted you as many points as Rodgers in the 1st and McGahee in the 12th. The difference between Rodgers (QB1) and Manning (QB10) last year was the same as the difference between Thomas Jones (RB6) and Darren Sproles (RB34). I would be as worried if my starting QB was Eli Manning as I would be if my starting RBs were Jerome Harrison and Darren McFadden. Again, you don't seem to realize that Aaron Rodgers was THIRD IN SEASON-ENDING VBD LAST YEAR. He was more valuable than Ray Rice or Maurice Jones-Drew. As for when you can acquire RBs... there are still RBs available outside of the first four rounds. Tons of them, in fact. I don't have any dynasty ADP data, but going off of the FBGs staff rankings submitted in the last month, here is a brief list of RBs available outside of the top 48- Ronnie Brown, Joseph Addai, C.J. Spiller, Donald Brown, Ben Tate, Montario Hardesty, Michael Bush, Marion Barber, Tashard Choice, Fred Jackson, etc. You've got some prior studs with injury concerns, some very highly ranked rookies, a guy who was a top-4 rookie draft pick last year (and still the heir apparent to the explosive Indy offense), you've got Addai (who has been a top-12 RB in 3 of the last 4 seasons, including an RB9 finish last year). Lots of quality RBs. They have some warts, but if you shotgun enough RBs with warts, you'll likely find someone. And if you don't, there's always trade. And if you can't trade, there are the late-season gems. And if you miss out on them, there's next year's rookie draft. And if those guys bust, then there's trades next year, and next year's gems, and the year after's rookie draft, and trades the year after, and the year after's late-season gems, and so on.

And pointing out that rookie RBs can bust is the height of silliness. Your reasoning is "rookie RBs can bust, so in the startup draft spend a first or second round draft pick on a sure thing. You know, like Matt Forte or Steve Slaton". Or, worse, you're advocating taking a 27-year-old RB with an extensive injury history (Steven Jackson) over a 26-year-old QB who has the 4th most VBD of any player over the last two years combined, behind Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, and Drew Brees. Oh yeah, by the way, that Drew Brees guy? He plays QB, too.

I agree with the longevity issue, but not with the "I don't have to worry about" stuff.

What I think is being undervalued is how easy it is to draft rookie QBs relatively late and hold onto them. When did Ryan and Flacco go in dynasty rookie drafts? Stafford? Henne? Even better, Freemen was there in the late 3rd last year.

Ryan and Stafford went in about the same place as Ray Rice, Maurice Jones-Drew, and Chris Johnson. Flacco went about where Desean Jackson was going. Henne and Freeman were available a bit later, as were Brian Brohm and Brodie Croyle. Also worth pointing out that the highest finish by any QB in that entire group so far was Matt Ryan's QB15 finish as a rookie. Those are guys who would be getting you KILLED for years if you were forced to rely on them. They might develop into a quality starter one day, but the ranks of quality starters are currently pretty full. They've got a LONG way to go if they want to catch up to Rodgers, Rivers, Romo, Schaub, Brees, Manning, Brady, etc.

Not true. By taking a QB in the first, not only are you getting your RB1 after everyone else, you are also getting your RB2 after everyone else. Actually, if i dont take Eli Manning until round 7, and you take Rodgers in round one, I am picking all my RB's and WR's one round ahead of you, until round 7.

Not true. The difference between QB/RB/WR/WR/RB and RB/RB/WR/WR/QB is only two players- the QB, and one of the two RBs (the one who moves from the 1st to the 5th). The other RB remains exactly the same. Sure, the arbitrary role we assign to him (RB1, RB2, whatever) might change, but in terms of total changes to the team the only difference is the QB and ONE of the two RBs.

And if i am picking question marks at RB in round 1, what are you getting in later rounds? I can still get a proven producer at QB in rounds 6-10. Maybe not as good as Rodgers, but the gap is alot closer than my RB's and yours.

Unless your RB is Chris Johnson or Adrian Peterson, then no, the gap is SUBSTANTIALLY WIDER between Rodgers and Eli than it is between a bottom-half-of-the-first RB and a later-round RB. As I said earlier, the difference between Aaron Rodgers and Eli Manning last year was the same as the difference between Thomas Jones and Darren Sproles. Nobody is saying that you should take Rodgers over Chris Johnson or Adrian Peterson, here... we're saying that you should take him over DeAngelo Williams (a 27-year old RB in a timeshare coming off an injury) or Knowshon Moreno (a guy with a 3.8 career ypc).

I understand the risk of RB's like Mendenhall and Wells, but do you have any guarantees with Rodgers? sure, its probable he finishes as a top 5 QB, but your acting as though it is a sure thing.As far as Eli Manning, he threw for over 4000 yards and 27 TD's last season. With the Giants trending more towards the passing game and further from the running game, i think those are pretty much his floor numbers, with room to get to 4300 yards and 30+ TD's. Which are basically Rodgers numbers - the rushing totals.

Im not suggesting Manning is in Rodgers tier, but i think Manning has a better shot at putting up similar numbers to Rodgers as a RB you would take in the 7th round has of putting up numbers like Mendenhalls.

 

[Go deep]

I'm interested and would take Rodgers as high as 5th.

Your in J-Dawg, and feel free to pick BPA.

 

[Go deep]

Lets start a list of participants.Go DeepDonsmith753 (QB in first round)Instinctive(QB in first round?)sholditchookookJ-Dawg6 to go.

Bump, half way there

 

[Instinctive]

I'm interested and would take Rodgers as high as 5th.

Your in J-Dawg, and feel free to pick BPA.

If he wants Rodgers at 5in order to be in, I'll take the 4 spot and go BPA. I'd like to be the Rodgers guy, but it's not too big a deal to me.

 

[Donsmith753]

We decided what site we're using? Should we start a seperate thread for this league?

 

[Go deep]

I'm interested and would take Rodgers as high as 5th.

Your in J-Dawg, and feel free to pick BPA.

If he wants Rodgers at 5in order to be in, I'll take the 4 spot and go BPA. I'd like to be the Rodgers guy, but it's not too big a deal to me.

Its up to you, if you want Rodgers, he is yours. If you dont mind picking 4th, thats fine too.I am currently trying to set up the draft on ESPN, is everyone OK iwth that?

 

[Donsmith753]

I'm fine with that. We're slow drafting right?

 

[Go deep]

We decided what site we're using? Should we start a seperate thread for this league?

A seperate thread is a good idea. I am currently setting up the draft on ESPN, if thats OK with everyone?

 

[Instinctive]

I'm interested and would take Rodgers as high as 5th.

Your in J-Dawg, and feel free to pick BPA.

If he wants Rodgers at 5in order to be in, I'll take the 4 spot and go BPA. I'd like to be the Rodgers guy, but it's not too big a deal to me.

Its up to you, if you want Rodgers, he is yours. If you dont mind picking 4th, thats fine too.I am currently trying to set up the draft on ESPN, is everyone OK iwth that?

Alright, I want Rodgers

 

[J-Dawg]

So we're going to be doing this as an actual league or just a mock draft?

 

[Instinctive]

We decided what site we're using? Should we start a seperate thread for this league?

A seperate thread is a good idea. I am currently setting up the draft on ESPN, if thats OK with everyone?

Slow draft right?

 

[Go deep]

We decided what site we're using? Should we start a seperate thread for this league?

A seperate thread is a good idea. I am currently setting up the draft on ESPN, if thats OK with everyone?

Slow draft right?

Yes.I created a seperate thread. For those who are already in, please check in. For those who are interested in joining, please post in that thread.

 

[Buckna]

I won't slam the QB in the 1st round people but the #1 pro argument I keep seeing is the assumption that the QB your targeting will have longevity and productivity (5-8 years of above average production keeps being thrown around.) I don't know how much I would trust such an assumption. There are tons of threads about RB turnover in the top 10, I would like to see some stats on how often and how long QB's that score in the top 10 stay in the top 10 (or the top 5.) There are tons of threads about RB turnover in the top 10.

Instead of throwing Peyton Manning's name around over and over again, give me some stats about the guys not named Peyton. He's an abberration (7 top 3 finishes, 10 out of 12 years in the top 5, NEVER missed a game in 12 seasons,) not a norm. Let's see some numbers on the Farve's, Warner's, McNabb's, Culpepper's, Brady's & Bree's over the years. But let's also not forget the Palmer's or the Vick's either who were at one time consider the top young dynasty QB's.

 

[SSOG]

I understand the risk of RB's like Mendenhall and Wells, but do you have any guarantees with Rodgers? sure, its probable he finishes as a top 5 QB, but your acting as though it is a sure thing.As far as Eli Manning, he threw for over 4000 yards and 27 TD's last season. With the Giants trending more towards the passing game and further from the running game, i think those are pretty much his floor numbers, with room to get to 4300 yards and 30+ TD's. Which are basically Rodgers numbers - the rushing totals. Im not suggesting Manning is in Rodgers tier, but i think Manning has a better shot at putting up similar numbers to Rodgers as a RB you would take in the 7th round has of putting up numbers like Mendenhalls.

I think you have a funny idea of what "floor" means. Eli passes for 3250, 3350, 3250, and 4050 in four consecutive years... and his floor is 4050? Huh?At the end of the day, Eli has ranked 10th, 13th, 13th, and 10th in the last 4 years. He's a 29 year old, 6-year veteran who has only finished higher than 10th once in his entire career- in the weakest season for QB production in the last decade. And even in that season, he produced a whopping 23 VBD. Aaron Rodgers has produced ten times as much VBD over the last two seasons. Again, the difference between Aaron Rodgers and Eli Manning was the difference between Thomas Jones and Darren Sproles.

I won't slam the QB in the 1st round people but the #1 pro argument I keep seeing is the assumption that the QB your targeting will have longevity and productivity (5-8 years of above average production keeps being thrown around.) I don't know how much I would trust such an assumption. There are tons of threads about RB turnover in the top 10, I would like to see some stats on how often and how long QB's that score in the top 10 stay in the top 10 (or the top 5.) There are tons of threads about RB turnover in the top 10.Instead of throwing Peyton Manning's name around over and over again, give me some stats about the guys not named Peyton. He's an abberration (7 top 3 finishes, 10 out of 12 years in the top 5, NEVER missed a game in 12 seasons,) not a norm. Let's see some numbers on the Farve's, Warner's, McNabb's, Culpepper's, Brady's & Bree's over the years. But let's also not forget the Palmer's or the Vick's either who were at one time consider the top young dynasty QB's.

Here's a list of every QB who has scored 340+ fantasy points twice before their 29th birthdayaunte Culpepper (age 23, 25, and 27)Dan Marino (age 23 and 25)Peyton Manning (age 24 and 28)Randall Cunningham (25 and 27)Brett Favre (25, 26, 27, and 28)Aaron Rodgers (25 and 26)Those are, in my mind, Aaron Rodgers peers- the guys who had multiple not just high-level seasons, but UBERSTUD seasons by age 30. Here's how they fared from age 27 onward (Rodgers will be 27 this season):* Culpepper posted the 2nd best fantasy season in QB history at age 27, then shredded his knee at 28 and never made a fantasy impact again. He finished with 193 VBD at age 27 or later.* Marino never put up another top-2 finish after age 27, but he put together a HoF career featuring a boatload of top-10 finishes and remained fantasy relevant for 12 more years. He finished with 528 VBD at age 27 or later.* Peyton Manning has been Peyton Manning, piling up top-3 finishes like they're going out of style. He's accumulated 652 VBD since his 27th birthday, and he's not slowing down yet.* Randall Cunningham was all over the map. He only played more than 7 games FOUR TIMES after his 27th birthday... but in those 4 seasons, he finished 1st (in 16 games), 2nd (in 15 games), 10th (in 14 games), and 2nd (in 15 games). In other words, when he was healthy, he was an uberstud... but he was rarely healthy. Still, he managed to accumulate 443 VBD after his 27th birthday.* Brett Favre has been an ageless wonder with a whopping TWELVE top-12 finishes since his 27th birthday. All in all, he's accumulated 578 VBD since his 27th birthday, with the possibility to add to that again this year.Of the 5 players who had as much uberstud history as Rodgers at as young of an age as Rodgers, 3 continued their studly ways for another decade. The other 2 were both essentially top-2 QBs when healthy, but had their careers wrecked by injuries.If you extend the criteria a bit to look at QBs with a pair of 340 point seasons through age 30 instead of through age 28, you add three new names to the list: Kurt Warner, Dan Fouts, and Drew Brees. I think those three names pretty much speak for themselves, too.While it's sketchy to take someone like Tony Romo or Philip Rivers in the 1st, in my mind the historical comparables make Aaron Rodgers in the 1st a no-brainer move.Edit: To put a little bit of perspective on those "VBD values since age 27" earlier in this post... Thomas Jones has 3 top-10 RB finishes and 6 top-24 RB finishes. His career VBD is... 276. Frank Gore's VBD-to-date is 286. Joseph Addai's VBD-to-date is 177. Ryan Grant's is 97. Most of those RBs in the 12-15 range will be lucky to get to 193 career VBD- a total Culpepper compiled in a single season at age 27 before getting injured at age 28.

 

[CalBear]

I won't slam the QB in the 1st round people but the #1 pro argument I keep seeing is the assumption that the QB your targeting will have longevity and productivity (5-8 years of above average production keeps being thrown around.) I don't know how much I would trust such an assumption. There are tons of threads about RB turnover in the top 10, I would like to see some stats on how often and how long QB's that score in the top 10 stay in the top 10 (or the top 5.) There are tons of threads about RB turnover in the top 10.Instead of throwing Peyton Manning's name around over and over again, give me some stats about the guys not named Peyton. He's an abberration (7 top 3 finishes, 10 out of 12 years in the top 5, NEVER missed a game in 12 seasons,) not a norm. Let's see some numbers on the Farve's, Warner's, McNabb's, Culpepper's, Brady's & Bree's over the years. But let's also not forget the Palmer's or the Vick's either who were at one time consider the top young dynasty QB's.

At any position there will be people who look like young studs who wind up never doing anything, or having one great year and then disappearing. There is a lot of turnover on any leader board in the Not For Long league. But it is clear that franchise QBs have better longevity and productivity than any other position.Favre, you say? 14 top-10 finishes, eight top-5 finishes, three #1 finishes. 1165 career VBD points. Culpepper had 4 top-2 finishes and 512 VBD points--far better than any of the second-tier RBs on the lists above. McNabb was never under consideration as a first-round pick, nor was Brady before 2008 nor Brees before 2007. Warner got hurt (twice).Let's be clear; if you're thinking about taking a QB in the first round, it's because he has a relatively high probability of top-5 performance for a significant period of time. You're talking about Manning, Montana (842 VBD), Young (888 VBD), Elway (807 VBD). You're not talking about Matt Ryan. Stud QB VBD production won't match the stud RBs, but it beats the pants off the RBs you can get late in the first round. Aside to stat geeks: Emmit Smith appears to be the career RB leader for VBD points at 1320, followed by Payton at 1318, with Tomlinson and Sanders in the 1200s. #1 overall with yet another claim to being the greatest football player of all time: Jerry Rice with 1615 career VBD points. Also notable: Tony Gonzalez with 750.

 

[Rockchild]

I won't slam the QB in the 1st round people but the #1 pro argument I keep seeing is the assumption that the QB your targeting will have longevity and productivity (5-8 years of above average production keeps being thrown around.) I don't know how much I would trust such an assumption. There are tons of threads about RB turnover in the top 10, I would like to see some stats on how often and how long QB's that score in the top 10 stay in the top 10 (or the top 5.) There are tons of threads about RB turnover in the top 10.Instead of throwing Peyton Manning's name around over and over again, give me some stats about the guys not named Peyton. He's an abberration (7 top 3 finishes, 10 out of 12 years in the top 5, NEVER missed a game in 12 seasons,) not a norm. Let's see some numbers on the Farve's, Warner's, McNabb's, Culpepper's, Brady's & Bree's over the years. But let's also not forget the Palmer's or the Vick's either who were at one time consider the top young dynasty QB's.

At any position there will be people who look like young studs who wind up never doing anything, or having one great year and then disappearing. There is a lot of turnover on any leader board in the Not For Long league. But it is clear that franchise QBs have better longevity and productivity than any other position.Favre, you say? 14 top-10 finishes, eight top-5 finishes, three #1 finishes. 1165 career VBD points. Culpepper had 4 top-2 finishes and 512 VBD points--far better than any of the second-tier RBs on the lists above. McNabb was never under consideration as a first-round pick, nor was Brady before 2008 nor Brees before 2007. Warner got hurt (twice).Let's be clear; if you're thinking about taking a QB in the first round, it's because he has a relatively high probability of top-5 performance for a significant period of time. You're talking about Manning, Montana (842 VBD), Young (888 VBD), Elway (807 VBD). You're not talking about Matt Ryan. Stud QB VBD production won't match the stud RBs, but it beats the pants off the RBs you can get late in the first round. Aside to stat geeks: Emmit Smith appears to be the career RB leader for VBD points at 1320, followed by Payton at 1318, with Tomlinson and Sanders in the 1200s. #1 overall with yet another claim to being the greatest football player of all time: Jerry Rice with 1615 career VBD points. Also notable: Tony Gonzalez with 750.

I think this post describes the situation perfectly. I don't think anyone is advocating taking a QB in the top 4 or 5 but from the 8 spot out a good case can be made for it and only if you think that that QB is a uberstud and not just a good QB. In our initial keeper league draft in 1995(we were all new to FF) a team took Favre in the late first and kept him as his QB for the next 14 years. He won a championship and has been in the most finals over that time. He never had to worry about trying to replace his QB and reaped the rewards. I understand it is one situation and a special player but shows that it's not necessarily a bad thng to do.

 

[SSOG]

Here's a list of every QB who has scored 340+ fantasy points twice before their 29th birthdayaunte Culpepper (age 23, 25, and 27)Dan Marino (age 23 and 25)Peyton Manning (age 24 and 28)Randall Cunningham (25 and 27)Brett Favre (25, 26, 27, and 28)Aaron Rodgers (25 and 26)Those are, in my mind, Aaron Rodgers peers- the guys who had multiple not just high-level seasons, but UBERSTUD seasons by age 30. Here's how they fared from age 27 onward (Rodgers will be 27 this season):* Culpepper posted the 2nd best fantasy season in QB history at age 27, then shredded his knee at 28 and never made a fantasy impact again. He finished with 193 VBD at age 27 or later.* Marino never put up another top-2 finish after age 27, but he put together a HoF career featuring a boatload of top-10 finishes and remained fantasy relevant for 12 more years. He finished with 528 VBD at age 27 or later.* Peyton Manning has been Peyton Manning, piling up top-3 finishes like they're going out of style. He's accumulated 652 VBD since his 27th birthday, and he's not slowing down yet.* Randall Cunningham was all over the map. He only played more than 7 games FOUR TIMES after his 27th birthday... but in those 4 seasons, he finished 1st (in 16 games), 2nd (in 15 games), 10th (in 14 games), and 2nd (in 15 games). In other words, when he was healthy, he was an uberstud... but he was rarely healthy. Still, he managed to accumulate 443 VBD after his 27th birthday.* Brett Favre has been an ageless wonder with a whopping TWELVE top-12 finishes since his 27th birthday. All in all, he's accumulated 578 VBD since his 27th birthday, with the possibility to add to that again this year.Of the 5 players who had as much uberstud history as Rodgers at as young of an age as Rodgers, 3 continued their studly ways for another decade. The other 2 were both essentially top-2 QBs when healthy, but had their careers wrecked by injuries.If you extend the criteria a bit to look at QBs with a pair of 340 point seasons through age 30 instead of through age 28, you add three new names to the list: Kurt Warner, Dan Fouts, and Drew Brees. I think those three names pretty much speak for themselves, too.While it's sketchy to take someone like Tony Romo or Philip Rivers in the 1st, in my mind the historical comparables make Aaron Rodgers in the 1st a no-brainer move.Edit: To put a little bit of perspective on those "VBD values since age 27" earlier in this post... Thomas Jones has 3 top-10 RB finishes and 6 top-24 RB finishes. His career VBD is... 276. Frank Gore's VBD-to-date is 286. Joseph Addai's VBD-to-date is 177. Ryan Grant's is 97. Most of those RBs in the 12-15 range will be lucky to get to 193 career VBD- a total Culpepper compiled in a single season at age 27 before getting injured at age 28.

One more note on this: in case anyone thinks that there's some special significance to the "two seasons of 340+ fantasy points", or that I'm gerrymandering cutoffs to get the most favorable sample possible... lowering the threshold to "two seasons of 320+ fantasy points through age 30" only adds Donovan McNabb (age 24 and 28), Tony Romo (27 and 29), and Philip Rivers (27 and 28).If you set the cutoff at 300 fantasy points instead of 320 fantasy points, that opens the gates to guys who were never considered anywhere NEAR the 1st round in dynasty startups- guys like Aaron Brooks, Jim Everett, and Jeff Blake. In other words, guys who are completely irrelevant to a discussion of whether it's worth it to spend a 1st round dynasty pick on a QB.Carson Palmer, whose name has been brought up a couple of times, had 332 and 307 fantasy points at age 26 and 27 (the seasons that established him as a potential 1st round pick). Aaron Rodgers, by comparison, scored 348 and 405 fantasy points over the last two seasons.

 

[Go deep]

Do any of the pro first round QB guys consider a players trade value when drafting? After the intitial draft, the hardest positon to address is RB, the easiest is probably QB. Are you taking that into consideration? SSOG stated at one point that he could draft a QB in the first, then get his WR's next and worry about his RB's later. Thats great in theory, but it near impossible to do. Heck, by the time you fixed your RB spots, your QB would only have a few years left and you would be in the same position as the guys who drafted RB's early in the intial draft.

I understand the thought proccess in drafting a QB early, and it seems "safe", i just dont think it is the best way to start a dynasty team.