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Taking My Shot at Greatness in the Daily Space (1 Viewer)

David Dodds

David Dodds

Administrator
Starting the Year with $50,000 in FanDuel and will be writing an e-book about the experience including weekly screenshots to the bankroll, etc

Each week I will recap the events and then also cover a major strategy. Most of the thoughts will make my daily column each week, but I will take all of those pieces and spiff up to assemble a book. I expect this to be part funny, sheer stupidity at times.

I might crash and burn and lose everything. I might win a ton of cash.

 
David Dodds said:
Starting the Year with $50,000 in FanDuel and will be writing an e-book about the experience including weekly screenshots to the bankroll, etc

Each week I will recap the events and then also cover a major strategy. Most of the thoughts will make my daily column each week, but I will take all of those pieces and spiff up to assemble a book. I expect this to be part funny, sheer stupidity at times.

I might crash and burn and lose everything. I might win a ton of cash.
Click to expand...
Are you referring to your weekly fanduel subscriber article - for the updates I mean?

Little bummed as im not a subscriber this season but love the idea. Good luck sir.

 
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Run It Up said:
David Dodds said:
Starting the Year with $50,000 in FanDuel and will be writing an e-book about the experience including weekly screenshots to the bankroll, etc

Each week I will recap the events and then also cover a major strategy. Most of the thoughts will make my daily column each week, but I will take all of those pieces and spiff up to assemble a book. I expect this to be part funny, sheer stupidity at times.

I might crash and burn and lose everything. I might win a ton of cash.
Click to expand...
Are you referring to your weekly fanduel subscriber article - for the updates I mean?

Little bummed as im not a subscriber this season but love the idea. Good luck sir.
Click to expand...
Correct. I will have notes, tidbits, strategy,etc that I post weekly regarding this journey. Then my plan is to mold this into a book over the summer. Not looking to sell the book, but will likely add it as subscriber content behind our paywall for people interested in improving their experience within the daily games (or maybe just as big caution on how not to be stupid)

 
Possible Chapter Headings:

- Why One Should Not Bet $17,000 with Nick Foles in Week 7

- Maybe Kickers do Matter

- What the Hell Was I Thinking Part 2?

- Who Would Known It Was Statistically possible to Lose 95% of One's Lineups

 
I took $1,500 and turned in to $7,000 last year. It's not a given I am going to win, but I think I have an edge, because of all the work I do to create very accurate projections. There are a lot of pitfalls to avoid though including: roster diversification, variance, bankroll management, etc. I am doing it at these nosebleed levels, because this is the level that will get my attention.

I believe the games are beatable. At least today. But just like online poker was beatable early, it got WAY tougher. That could very well happen here as early as this year. Regardless if I win or lose money here, hopefully I can figure some things out along the way to help the FBG subscribers to become winning daily players.

 
For example, things I plan on trying:

100 head to head games at each of the different levels $1, $5, $10, $20, $50, $100 using 4 different lineups 25X each at each price point. I might even do this over a few weeks. The thought is that the lower games should be easier, but are they?

Are 3 man, 5 man, 10 man, 50/50s or head to head better ROI investments over the long haul?

etc

 
For those of us who have never played FanDuel in our lives, can we get quick cliffs on exactly how it works?

Is it like with betting sites, where they post something like "Drew Brees, 311.5 yards" and you pick over or under.

Or is it always a head-to-head thing against one or more people?

TIA, and good luck.

 
Raider,

Every week they lay out prices for all the players. You have a cap ($60K is normal) to choose 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 PK, and 1 Def without spending more than the cap. You then enter this into tournaments, head to head to head, 3 man, 5 man, 20 person 50/50 where 1/2 cash etc. You can't see other's lineups until the 1st game starts and the whole roster is locked down.

They have Sunday only, ones that include the Thursday game, Sunday late games, varying cap limits, etc for diversity

 
Got it, thanks.

So I assume this is something we cannot "tail" like we would with a gambling pick, since presumably you don't want the whole world knowing your lineup in advance?

 
Raider Nation said:
Got it, thanks.

So I assume this is something we cannot "tail" like we would with a gambling pick, since presumably you don't want the whole world knowing your lineup in advance?
Click to expand...
I give you guys all the tools (and even suggested lineups) in my articles. Because of the amount of cash, risk management forces me to diversify across some different lineups. One of my articles compares my projections to the salaries and identifies the very best production for the value. It's safe to assume my lineup will be around these situations as well.

 
My Recap each week will show all of my work (after the fact). But you will see how my lineups do indeed match very closely to the articles I am writing for the site.

 
David Dodds said:
I believe the games are beatable. At least today. But just like online poker was beatable early, it got WAY tougher.
Click to expand...
Interesting thoughts. I read an article last week about a guy who has quit poker to go work for a daily fantasy sports competitor of Fanduel. He said he made 25k on the side last year from fantasy baseball and that there are a bunch of people already making a living from it.

Link from PokerNews for those interested

http://www.pokernews.com/muck/interview-jon-aguiar-retires-from-poker-for-daily-fantasy.htm

 
David Dodds said:
For example, things I plan on trying:

100 head to head games at each of the different levels $1, $5, $10, $20, $50, $100 using 4 different lineups 25X each at each price point. I might even do this over a few weeks. The thought is that the lower games should be easier, but are they?

Are 3 man, 5 man, 10 man, 50/50s or head to head better ROI investments over the long haul?

etc
Click to expand...
What percent of your bankroll would this risk? I would never expose more than 10 percent on a given week. I have bet NFL seriously and professionally for 20 years, turning 1500-7000 does not mean you should risk 50,000 unless you are prepared to lose it and a lot more if you chase
 
sjdogs said:
David Dodds said:
For example, things I plan on trying:

100 head to head games at each of the different levels $1, $5, $10, $20, $50, $100 using 4 different lineups 25X each at each price point. I might even do this over a few weeks. The thought is that the lower games should be easier, but are they?

Are 3 man, 5 man, 10 man, 50/50s or head to head better ROI investments over the long haul?

etc
Click to expand...
What percent of your bankroll would this risk? I would never expose more than 10 percent on a given week. I have bet NFL seriously and professionally for 20 years, turning 1500-7000 does not mean you should risk 50,000 unless you are prepared to lose it and a lot more if you chase
Click to expand...
That's likely very sound risk management, but what fun would that be for people reading this book? They want a roller-coaster and I will likely give them that. Hopefully it's not just a death plunge. Of course I am prepared to lose everything. No one should approach something like this without considering that they could lose everything. I know my data gets better with every logged NFL game so I will likely start the reason somewhat slower, but I am pretty sure I will be wagering 30-50% of my bankroll per week when it feels appropriate. I plan on dealing with risk/variance a few different ways: multiple lineups (likely 4 main ones per week), never relying on any player for more than 30% of my rosters, multiple contests, enough 50/50s and head to head events to smooth the variance, etc

 
I actually think your angle is going be better in the first few weeks. You have done way more research and have way more data already than the average player. As things become more clarified for everyone else, the luck factor increases. Maybe more importantly, the first few weeks have a lot of casual players (at least it did last year) and some of them playing off bonuses/promotions or just trying it for the 1st time. By week 17, you're playing against the people who still have money in their account because they know what they're doing.

If it were me, I would be ready to play as many games as possible out of the gate. The competition gets harder as weeks go on.

 
Truman said:
David Dodds said:
I believe the games are beatable. At least today. But just like online poker was beatable early, it got WAY tougher.
Click to expand...
Interesting thoughts. I read an article last week about a guy who has quit poker to go work for a daily fantasy sports competitor of Fanduel. He said he made 25k on the side last year from fantasy baseball and that there are a bunch of people already making a living from it.

Link from PokerNews for those interested

http://www.pokernews.com/muck/interview-jon-aguiar-retires-from-poker-for-daily-fantasy.htm
Click to expand...
that was a good read

 
David this is incredible. I can't wait to read your weekly takes on players and how the week before went. I really wish I could invest that much coin into FanDuel as I think 2013 is the big tipping point in the Daily Fantasy World.

Best of Luck!

 
cheese said:
I actually think your angle is going be better in the first few weeks. You have done way more research and have way more data already than the average player. As things become more clarified for everyone else, the luck factor increases. Maybe more importantly, the first few weeks have a lot of casual players (at least it did last year) and some of them playing off bonuses/promotions or just trying it for the 1st time. By week 17, you're playing against the people who still have money in their account because they know what they're doing.

If it were me, I would be ready to play as many games as possible out of the gate. The competition gets harder as weeks go on.
Click to expand...
Wow...I think you are dead-on. Maybe just play the first few weeks and put a hard cap on it come week 5-6.

 
Great point on getting your money in early!

Last season I turned nothing but freeroll entries into a bankroll I turned into over $1000. I missed out on over $2k one week alone because Schaub had a stinker vs the Pats so I finished 3rd instead of 1st in a bigger contest (one TD and I win).

I have played almost exclusively the big 2k entry leagues for $1, $2, or $5 that can pay out big-time "pot odds" ... but it sounds like the better play is to do the 2-20 size leagues with better odds of not needing a near perfect lineup? I manage to break even most week and hit just enough to keep raising my bankroll though with this approach.

I have not taken that plunge on the H2H format mostly because of the time it takes to set and diversify especially on Sunday leading up to kickoff. How much do you anticipate trying the large leagues vs the H2H leagues?

 
Truman said:
David Dodds said:
I believe the games are beatable. At least today. But just like online poker was beatable early, it got WAY tougher.
Click to expand...
Interesting thoughts. I read an article last week about a guy who has quit poker to go work for a daily fantasy sports competitor of Fanduel. He said he made 25k on the side last year from fantasy baseball and that there are a bunch of people already making a living from it.

Link from PokerNews for those interested

http://www.pokernews.com/muck/interview-jon-aguiar-retires-from-poker-for-daily-fantasy.htm
Click to expand...
"That’s how things went from last October until a few months ago after we raised $7 million in funding. "

wow

 
I think this will be an interesting experiment to follow over the course of the season. Looking forward to it.

 
I need to stay far far away from fanduel. Could see losing a lot of money. Post a link here next year when the book is done.

 
Keith Overton has convinced me that a good book needs a Great Ending. So in typical All-In Fashion, I plan on putting the entire bankroll in play in week 16 (my final week of this craziness). Giddy about the whole experience.

 
You are a mad man. I would definitely look to go bigger early as well as a lot of the "steals" salary wise seem to be more prevalent earlier in the year. I feel like the longer you wait the longer you give them to adjust player salaries accordingly.

 
David Dodds said:
Keith Overton has convinced me that a good book needs a Great Ending. So in typical All-In Fashion, I plan on putting the entire bankroll in play in week 16 (my final week of this craziness). Giddy about the whole experience.
Click to expand...
No matter the sum?

:popcorn:

 
[icon] said:
David Dodds said:
Keith Overton has convinced me that a good book needs a Great Ending. So in typical All-In Fashion, I plan on putting the entire bankroll in play in week 16 (my final week of this craziness). Giddy about the whole experience.
Click to expand...
No matter the sum?

:popcorn:
Click to expand...
Yep going All-In. I will utilize risk management principals to try and handle variance and such, but I will put it all in in Week 16 regardless of sum. Everyone like s a cliff-hanger. This should be one for the ages.

 
Good luck!

I turned $2200 in poker winnings into $300 in losses in the last 3 months. And it wasn't because the competition was stiff, it was because they were idiots that kept getting their money in with a 10% chance to win and sucking out.

Grrrr .... variance.

 
Good luck David, will be fun to sweat this one over your shoulder.

Do you have an O/U on expected winnings?

 
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