chris1969
Footballguy
Ok for some of you guys this is probably nothing new, but for others it may help so I thought I would post it here. Eventually, I plan on getting motivated enough to write software to support this, but that is at least another year away. For the time being, the way I support this is with a bunch of spreadsheets which probably take half as long to make as it would to write the software itself, but habits are hard to break.
Step #1 Realize before you even start preparing, that no matter who you draft, after the draft is over, FF is a week to week proposition just like the NFL. Don't get attached to anybody and think weekly points over total points.Don't stop preparing until the draft is over! The ones who prepare the most, win. It's that simple.
Step #2 Project your own stats for everything. Buy every FF magazine you can and rip out every cheat-sheet inside those mags. Read every little tidbit about every player you can and come to your own conclusion about how they'll perform. Use one source's stats as a base and adjust from there. I use DD's stats, because they are already in a form I can manipulate. This is the step that can make or break your season, so this is where you should spend the most time.
Step #3 Turn Projected stats into total and weekly fantasy points. This is a pretty easy step because DD will do it for you. Just enter your scoring system and do a mock draft for more players than you plan on being drafted and look at the weekly totals in DD. I spend more time in this step than most, because I adjust the weekly totals according to my own SOS, but you can do really well by sticking to DD's.
Step #4 Set your baseline. DD normally uses the 100 pick method, but I use a hybrid between the weakest starter method and the 100 pick method. I take the total number of starters multiplied by the total number of teams and then use ADP to determine the number of players that are drafted at each position by that pick number. (ie... a 12 team league with 10 starters would have a baseline of 120)I absolutely do not strive to get a starting line-up by this pick number, I simply take the best value until I get to this number.
Step#5 This is the hardest step to explain and also the one that separates what I do over what most VBD drafters do. Every time I draft a player or someone else drafts one, it effects the value of the rest of the players on the board. In step number 2, in addition to the statistics I add a bye week factor, a hand cuffing factor, a by committee factor, a play-off factor, a risk/reward factor (I'll explain this one later) and an injury factor. For an example, when I have a player that I draft who has a bye week in week 8, all the players in that position that have a good match-up in that bye week become more valuable. They move up on the list based on the their projected stats for that week and more importantly the guys with bad match-ups move down. In addition to those factors separately I keep track of a need factor, a demand factor, a max player factor, and a free agent factor. The need factor is simply based on the number of players I have at each position. As I draft in a position, my need in that position goes down. The demand factor goes down as other people draft a player at each position. When someone drafts the max number of players in any position their threat to draft another is 0. This works out great when every other player has drafted the max players at any position, you can then wait till the last round to draft that position. The free agent factor is figured out by taking the total roster size multiplied by the number of teams and looking at the free agents on the board after that last pick. It is only used to keep me from drafting a back-up at a position where there will be plenty of players available when the draft is over.
Step #6 Once your baseline is reached (pick #120 in the example) you switch from value based drafting to risk/reward drafting, this step is more of an art than a science. You have to keep in mind the starters you haven't drafted yet vs the demand factor. I try and get those spots filled along with filling in depth at each position. The risk/reward factor is pretty simple. The risk is the floor for a player, (The lowest you think he'll score) expressed as a percentage of your projection. The Reward is a percentage added to your projection that you think is the best a player can do. In this step I tend not to take too many risks early and instead concentrate on handcuffs, good play-off players, by committee players, ect... As the draft progresses I take more risks to get greater rewards. I have never walked into a draft knowing exactly what I'll do in this step and never will. You play it by ear and try to make logical decisions given all the info you have. The better your preparation, the better you'll do in this step.
I hope this helps the newer guys and if any of you have questions or suggestions I'm more than willing to listen.
Step #1 Realize before you even start preparing, that no matter who you draft, after the draft is over, FF is a week to week proposition just like the NFL. Don't get attached to anybody and think weekly points over total points.Don't stop preparing until the draft is over! The ones who prepare the most, win. It's that simple.
Step #2 Project your own stats for everything. Buy every FF magazine you can and rip out every cheat-sheet inside those mags. Read every little tidbit about every player you can and come to your own conclusion about how they'll perform. Use one source's stats as a base and adjust from there. I use DD's stats, because they are already in a form I can manipulate. This is the step that can make or break your season, so this is where you should spend the most time.
Step #3 Turn Projected stats into total and weekly fantasy points. This is a pretty easy step because DD will do it for you. Just enter your scoring system and do a mock draft for more players than you plan on being drafted and look at the weekly totals in DD. I spend more time in this step than most, because I adjust the weekly totals according to my own SOS, but you can do really well by sticking to DD's.
Step #4 Set your baseline. DD normally uses the 100 pick method, but I use a hybrid between the weakest starter method and the 100 pick method. I take the total number of starters multiplied by the total number of teams and then use ADP to determine the number of players that are drafted at each position by that pick number. (ie... a 12 team league with 10 starters would have a baseline of 120)I absolutely do not strive to get a starting line-up by this pick number, I simply take the best value until I get to this number.
Step#5 This is the hardest step to explain and also the one that separates what I do over what most VBD drafters do. Every time I draft a player or someone else drafts one, it effects the value of the rest of the players on the board. In step number 2, in addition to the statistics I add a bye week factor, a hand cuffing factor, a by committee factor, a play-off factor, a risk/reward factor (I'll explain this one later) and an injury factor. For an example, when I have a player that I draft who has a bye week in week 8, all the players in that position that have a good match-up in that bye week become more valuable. They move up on the list based on the their projected stats for that week and more importantly the guys with bad match-ups move down. In addition to those factors separately I keep track of a need factor, a demand factor, a max player factor, and a free agent factor. The need factor is simply based on the number of players I have at each position. As I draft in a position, my need in that position goes down. The demand factor goes down as other people draft a player at each position. When someone drafts the max number of players in any position their threat to draft another is 0. This works out great when every other player has drafted the max players at any position, you can then wait till the last round to draft that position. The free agent factor is figured out by taking the total roster size multiplied by the number of teams and looking at the free agents on the board after that last pick. It is only used to keep me from drafting a back-up at a position where there will be plenty of players available when the draft is over.
Step #6 Once your baseline is reached (pick #120 in the example) you switch from value based drafting to risk/reward drafting, this step is more of an art than a science. You have to keep in mind the starters you haven't drafted yet vs the demand factor. I try and get those spots filled along with filling in depth at each position. The risk/reward factor is pretty simple. The risk is the floor for a player, (The lowest you think he'll score) expressed as a percentage of your projection. The Reward is a percentage added to your projection that you think is the best a player can do. In this step I tend not to take too many risks early and instead concentrate on handcuffs, good play-off players, by committee players, ect... As the draft progresses I take more risks to get greater rewards. I have never walked into a draft knowing exactly what I'll do in this step and never will. You play it by ear and try to make logical decisions given all the info you have. The better your preparation, the better you'll do in this step.
I hope this helps the newer guys and if any of you have questions or suggestions I'm more than willing to listen.
