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Tampa Bay vs Green Bay in the NFC Championship Game...Brady vs Rodgers (1 Viewer)

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
This is simply the week of thread not the game thread.  

Green Bay opened -3.5 

Tampa Bay won 38-10 earlier this year and I think in general they match up well but I also think Green Bay has a huge advantage, sure Brady has won in the cold his entire career but the rest of the Bucs don't see temperatures under 50 much all year. To discount the weather, the temperature and there will be fans in the stands. 

I am sure we are going to hear from a lot of Green Bay fans, there's a lot more of them. Green Bay has been an outstanding team the last 2 seasons and it really would be right if they moved on to the Super Bowl, their head coach has been perfect for Rodgers and it's a shame it took the team so long to run Mike McCarthy out of there. 

Brady's 1st NFC Conference Championship 

Rodgers 5th NFC Conference Championship

 

rockaction

Footballguy
Go Bucs. Any finger poked in the Patriots eye is a fun one, but I'm rooting for Tampa simply because they have so much offensive firepower that I think they can stay with Buffalo and KC. I don't think Green Bay has the receivers to hang with the AFC teams.

 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Go Packers.

I'm going to the Super Bowl and don't wanna see Brady in it.
My son has already instructed me he must have a Brady jersey, as a lifelong Phinsfan to have to buy a Brady jersey is gonna drive me nuts but I also root for the Bucs and I thoroughly enjoyed how Brady was able to make the right moves in the 2nd Half and capitalize on his Defense, that's who won the football game. Maybe he'd like a Shaq Barrett jersey instead. 

 

Pipes

Footballguy
Go Bucs. Any finger poked in the Patriots eye is a fun one, but I'm rooting for Tampa simply because they have so much offensive firepower that I think they can stay with Buffalo and KC. I don't think Green Bay has the receivers to hang with the AFC teams.
GB  just scored 32 against the #1 defense in the NFL.  I know Donald wasn't 100% but the rest of the Rams D didn't do much.  Packers oline is dominant right now combined with the running game and a lights out Rodgers they have plenty of firepower to keep up with the AFC representative.  

Going to this game Tampa scares me.  They matchup well against GB and Brady isn't likely to have to crap games in a row in the playoffs.  The Pack really need to bring their A game on Sunday.

 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
GB  just scored 32 against the #1 defense in the NFL.  I know Donald wasn't 100% but the rest of the Rams D didn't do much.  Packers oline is dominant right now combined with the running game and a lights out Rodgers they have plenty of firepower to keep up with the AFC representative.  

Going to this game Tampa scares me.  They matchup well against GB and Brady isn't likely to have to crap games in a row in the playoffs.  The Pack really need to bring their A game on Sunday.
I think the Bucs are likely about a 30% chance of winning the game if I am shooting from the hip. Brady is the X Factor to some degree but I also am interested in the combo of Jones/Fournette, Brady seemed alright making adjustments and taking what they would give him. I don't believe Green Bay can play man on man as well next week like the Saints did. Most of the Bucs big weapons at WR were mainly quiet for the most part. 

30 degrees and 60% chance of showers/light snow, perfect throwing weather 😂

Bucs need 150 yards on the ground from their RB tandem, they achieve that and they have a better shot to win the game. 

 

Capella

CAPELLODINHO
Packers D is not nearly as good as WFT and especially NO so the Bucs should move the ball better, but obviously the Packers offense way better than both and Rodgers playing at an all-time level. Should be fun. If Davis can lock up Adams like he did Thomas I like the Bucs chances. 

 

CletiusMaximus

Footballguy
People will say the game earlier this season is in the rear view and doesn’t matter, but that game was an absolute old-fashioned butt-kicking. The Bucs were more physical, faster, had a better gameplan and left no doubt which team was better on that day across all team groups on offense and defense. 
 

 

CletiusMaximus

Footballguy
I’m also viewing this game in part as a sort of referendum on a “draft BPA for the future and re-sign your own guys” approach as contrasted with the “mortgage the future to take a shot now” approach to team building.  The Packers have been far more successful in terms of wins, division titles and playoff appearances the past 25 years, but only have two Lombardies to show for it, while the Glazers have one.  None in the last ten years.  This game won’t change either team’s approach to life, but might provide some fodder for the message board warriors.  
 

 

Doug B

Footballguy
People will say the game earlier this season is in the rear view and doesn’t matter, but that game was an absolute old-fashioned butt-kicking. The Bucs were more physical, faster, had a better gameplan and left no doubt which team was better on that day across all team groups on offense and defense. 
Week 9, Saints at Buccaneers? :shrug:  

 

Pipes

Footballguy
Packers D is not nearly as good as WFT and especially NO so the Bucs should move the ball better, but obviously the Packers offense way better than both and Rodgers playing at an all-time level. Should be fun. If Davis can lock up Adams like he did Thomas I like the Bucs chances. 
Packers pass defense is playing really well right now.  Rashaan Gary has really stepped up and their pass rush is looking really, really good.  They are still suspect against the run though so as long as GB doesn't jump on them early and they don't have to abandoned the run it should be a really tight game.  Also I don't see Davis having anywhere near the success against Adams as he did Thomas.  

 

Capella

CAPELLODINHO
Packers pass defense is playing really well right now.  Rashaan Gary has really stepped up and their pass rush is looking really, really good.  They are still suspect against the run though so as long as GB doesn't jump on them early and they don't have to abandoned the run it should be a really tight game.  Also I don't see Davis having anywhere near the success against Adams as he did Thomas.  
He’s obviously not going to hold him to 0-0. But Adams only went for 6-60 in October. He doesn’t have to shut him out to be effective. 

 
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Grahamburn

Footballguy
#Bucs are designating DT Vita Vea for return from injured reserve. He will begin practicing Wednesday and could be activated for Sunday's NFC title game. Vea fractured his ankle against the Bears in Oct.
Rick Stroud.

 

strykerpks

Footballguy
Packers D is not nearly as good as WFT and especially NO so the Bucs should move the ball better, but obviously the Packers offense way better than both and Rodgers playing at an all-time level. Should be fun. If Davis can lock up Adams like he did Thomas I like the Bucs chances. 
16
14
16
18

Last 4 weeks of GB D points allowed. I'm not saying they're the 85 Bears by any means but one of those weeks Derek Henry (OPY IMO) was essentially stuffed. Packers play too much soft coverage especially in short yardage situations, and too much 3-man rush for my liking, so there are certainly warts that can be picked apart. With that said they have gotten much better heading into the post season and are riding some momentum. Let's not compare them to WooFT please. TIA

 

Capella

CAPELLODINHO
16
14
16
18

Last 4 weeks of GB D points allowed. I'm not saying they're the 85 Bears by any means but one of those weeks Derek Henry (OPY IMO) was essentially stuffed. Packers play too much soft coverage especially in short yardage situations, and too much 3-man rush for my liking, so there are certainly warts that can be picked apart. With that said they have gotten much better heading into the post season and are riding some momentum. Let's not compare them to WooFT please. TIA
WFT had a top-5 defense this year, maybe even top-3. Rest of the team sucked but that D was excellent. 

 

Leroy Hoard

Footballguy
I hate to be that guy, but it's not a matchup of QBs. It's a matchup of each (plus the rest of their offense) vs the opposing defense. The better QB could easily lose the game.

 

Capella

CAPELLODINHO
Aaaand they're watching the Packer D in the NFCCG

WooFT was #2 in this metric. Fine. GB was #9. They're not good but they're not awful

https://www.footballdb.com/stats/teamstat.html?group=D&cat=T
Definitely not awful. DVOA has GB defense #14. My point was the Bucs should have an easier time moving the ball than against WFT and NO who ranked #3 and 2. Of course GB has the #1 offense by a mile so it evens out. 
 

Bucs #1 in DVOA, GB #3, Bills and Chiefs 4 and 5. The nerds know their stuff. 

 

strykerpks

Footballguy
Definitely not awful. DVOA has GB defense #14. My point was the Bucs should have an easier time moving the ball than against WFT and NO who ranked #3 and 2. Of course GB has the #1 offense by a mile so it evens out. 
 

Bucs #1 in DVOA, GB #3, Bills and Chiefs 4 and 5. The nerds know their stuff. 
What does Pecota say? Pythagoras? Kenpom? Your argument was "GB D is not as good as WooFT #2 or NO #4 (in the link)" No ####.

I'm just picking a fight to pick a fight. Let's get old school old yeller in this thread instead of DVOA, Zips, VRBO etc.

 

rockaction

Footballguy
What does Pecota say? Pythagoras? Kenpom? Your argument was "GB D is not as good as WooFT #2 or NO #4 (in the link)" No ####.

I'm just picking a fight to pick a fight. Let's get old school old yeller in this thread instead of DVOA, Zips, VRBO etc.
WFT was #3 in DVOA this year on defense, GB was #17, just for edification. It's the metric I use, too. It seems like a pretty good data point to compare one defense to another.

 

Capella

CAPELLODINHO
What does Pecota say? Pythagoras? Kenpom? Your argument was "GB D is not as good as WooFT #2 or NO #4 (in the link)" No ####.

I'm just picking a fight to pick a fight. Let's get old school old yeller in this thread instead of DVOA, Zips, VRBO etc.
Lol ok then y’all better pray 🙏 for snow 

 
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rockaction

Footballguy
PS for the record, I would have a few hundred beers with both Cappy and Rock
Same here, man. I'd just skip the beer these days and be no fun.

I do not know what it is the past month. Probably pretty improved, though. I can tell you that Green Bay's Weighted DVOA, or that which takes recency into account, is #14, so probably even better than that the past four games.

 

strykerpks

Footballguy
I may check in later tonight but I gotta wish you all farewell for now. I don't check the SP very often anymore because of DVOA nerds and whatever. Sometimes stats don't tell the whole story. It's just fun to talk ####. 

 

Spanky267

Footballguy
My son has already instructed me he must have a Brady jersey, as a lifelong Phinsfan to have to buy a Brady jersey is gonna drive me nuts but I also root for the Bucs and I thoroughly enjoyed how Brady was able to make the right moves in the 2nd Half and capitalize on his Defense, that's who won the football game. Maybe he'd like a Shaq Barrett jersey instead. 
Get him a Devin White jersey.

 

Grahamburn

Footballguy
Mike Pettine has lost eight straight games against Tom Brady, giving up an average of 34 points in those losses.

2020: Bucs 38-10
2018: Patriots 31-17
2013: Patriots 23-21
2013: Patriots 34-20
2012: Patriots 29-26
2012: Patriots 49-19
2011: Patriots 30-21
2011: Patriots 37-16
 

When facing a Pettine-led defense (Jets from 2009-12, Bills 2013, Packers 2018-present), Brady is 10-3, competing 64% of his passes for an average of 269 yards per game to go with 24 touchdowns and seven interceptions.

 

strykerpks

Footballguy
Mike Pettine has lost eight straight games against Tom Brady, giving up an average of 34 points in those losses.

2020: Bucs 38-10
2018: Patriots 31-17
2013: Patriots 23-21
2013: Patriots 34-20
2012: Patriots 29-26
2012: Patriots 49-19
2011: Patriots 30-21
2011: Patriots 37-16
 
How many of those are mid-2010's Jets or Bills or Browns? TIA
 

 

strykerpks

Footballguy
I was literally just explaining to my kids over Christmas break how this games used to be billed by Berman as "the Bay of Pigs."  How timely.
I tried to explain the NFC Central to my kids the other day and somehow why Tampa was in that division. They couldn't grasp it and why games in Tampa were essentially home games. We're old

 

Alex P Keaton

Footballguy
Mike Pettine has lost eight straight games against Tom Brady, giving up an average of 34 points in those losses.

2020: Bucs 38-10
2018: Patriots 31-17
2013: Patriots 23-21
2013: Patriots 34-20
2012: Patriots 29-26
2012: Patriots 49-19
2011: Patriots 30-21
2011: Patriots 37-16
 
This is exactly what week 6 felt like.  Like Pettine was absolutely incompetent in his gameplan AND has zero ability to make in-game adjustments.

 

Grahamburn

Footballguy
IvanKaramazov said:
I was literally just explaining to my kids over Christmas break how this games used to be billed by Berman as "the Bay of Pigs."  How timely.
Miss those Sapp/Favre battles.

 

Manster

Footballguy
I feel like tommy is gonna show his age in this one, and the TB D won't feast like they did against a completely done Brees......it all comes down to the GB D and how well they can get to tommy.

 

Grahamburn

Footballguy
I feel like tommy is gonna show his age in this one, and the TB D won't feast like they did against a completely done Brees......it all comes down to the GB D and how well they can get to tommy.
What makes you think they'll get to him?

 

NE_REVIVAL

Footballguy
I feel like tommy is gonna show his age in this one, and the TB D won't feast like they did against a completely done Brees......it all comes down to the GB D and how well they can get to tommy.
IMO from a Tampa pov, first and foremost it is whether or not they can run on GBs def, if TB can run the ball they are a very difficult team to beat. If they can't run it it is so much harder for them to protect, get in rhythm and get their shots down field. Imo Arob will likely move the ball vs TB secondary regardless whether GB can run it or not but it will be an awfully long day for TB if they can do both.

I don't follow GB that closely but my 2k ft view is very good def, good secondary, better against pass than run, probably not as good but about on par with the front 7s they faced in last 2 games.

Should be a great game!

 

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