It seems to me that in most cases the consensus is that the WLB in this defensive scheme will be the better scoring fantasy player ie: Cato June, Derrick Brooks, and the rookies Chad Greenway and Ernie Sims.
In the case of the Tampa Bay Bucs - in my leagues scoring - a little more agressive 2 pts tackles, 1 pt assist, 2 pts sack, 1 pt .05 sack 2 pt FF, 3 pt FR, 3 pt interception 1 pt PD - Quarles actually outpointed Brooks. Quarles had 103 solos, 30 assists, 1 int and 1 sack = 253 pts. Brooks 93 solos 32 assists 1 Int, 3 sacks = 240 pts.
My question is then that Barrett Ruud - heir apparent to Quarles should be just as valuable of a player in Tampa Bay - why? In Indy its Cato June the WLB, in Minnesota they are saying it will be Greenway and Sims in Detroit. Wouldn't the MLB in both those clubs be as valuable as the WLB? Or is it the talent of the MLB that outweighs the slant of the scheme? Or does TB do something different than other clubs using the same scheme?
Lot of different factors will determine which player/position is more valuable.In general, the MLB value is somewhat depressed in a Tampa-2 scheme because of the alignment of the backers. The Mike must drop back in coverage and
may align a step further back as a hedge to get back and help in the deep middle. Most Tampa-2 schemes spill ballcarriers toward the weak side of the formation and ask the Will to play more coverage than they may in other schemes. Both boost the stats of the Will.
More specifically, you need to determine...
1) How often does the team play the Tampa-2?
Tampa and Indy use the scheme almost exclusively...Buffalo and Detroit almost certainly will not. The less often the team plays the LB in coverage, the more valuable the MLB should be and vice versa.
2) Does the team play right/left or weak/strong when they align in the Tampa-2?
Tampa has almost always aligned weak/strong while Indy prefers a right/left alignment. That will affect the value of the WLB (and the SLB). Hard to say what happens for the new teams using this scheme, but I'd lean toward weak/strong alignments for all three given the personnel.
3) How aggressively will the team play the scheme?
All forms of the Tampa-2 are aggressive, but some play more press coverage, others blitz the QB more frequently. Recently, Lovie Smith's schemes have been the most aggressive - think Adam Archuleta in STL, Brian Urlacher and his multiple sacks last season, and Charles Tillman or Mike Brown coming on blitzes also. Perry Fewell, the new DC in Buffalo, is a Lovie Smith man and so you may see Donte Whitner or London Fletcher have more value here than in other places, particularly if Takeo Spikes can't get it done. Rod Marinelli (DET) and Mike Tomlin (MIN) are probably closer to the original Dungy style.
4) Who's the better player on the defense? Can the MLB cover? Can the Will pursue?
Always important. Urlacher can overcome some of the disadvantages of alignment because he's got ridiculous speed and instincts. Even so, Briggs still nearly equaled his production last year. I'd guess that both Greenway and Sims have better value than their Mike partners for the forseeable future, because none of the mess of backers in DET or MIN have shown any real ability to handle the dual role the scheme requires IMO. Fletcher and Spikes should have pretty comparable value in Buffalo, but Fletch may continue to be the better tackler if the Bills play the Tampa-2 only part-time.
I'll be honest, I'm still surprised at the year's turned in by Shelton Quarles and Gary Brackett last year. IMO, both were flukes in their own way. Quarles had a career year. Whether it was because he was motivated by the presence of Ruud, benefited from Brooks slow burn with age, or just took three years to settle into the role is hard to say. But Hardy Nickerson was a solid player and routinely lagged behind Brooks in the day. Gary Brackett probably benefited from the fact that Cato June is blech IMO and he stayed on the field for three downs for the most part.
With regard to Ruud...I think he has good value in either position simply because he looks likely to be the best linebacker on that roster long term. He's likely to have better cover stats than Quarles (who's never had great ball skills in coverage) if he stays in the middle and is instinctive and quick enough to get to the ball as an MLB. Both skills translate well to the Will also. So he'll be a fine fantasy option.
