Tank Dell vs Nico Collins...what am I missing? (1 Viewer)

[Banger]

Last year Nico was a 3rd year player while Tank was a rookie. Nico had a very solid year last year while Tank unfortunately got hurt in week 13. Through week 12 last year Nico had 73 targets / 50 catches / 800 yards / 5 TDs (160 pts) while Tank had 75 targets / 47 catches / 709 yard / 7 TDs (159.9 pts). So Nico outperformed Tank by .1 points last year when both were playing and healthy yet this year Nico is WR16 while Tank is WR32, why? If you love the Texans offense like most do, why wouldn't you let someone else take Nico and scoop Tank everywhere you can?

 

[ffmail4me]

I'd say durability concerns are valid with Tank. Nico doesn't have those concerns.

 

[Banger]

I'd say durability concerns are valid with Tank. Nico doesn't have those concerns.

He broke a bone in his leg and he's healed, it happens...it's a violent sport. It's not like he tore his knee or has chronic muscle issues like Watson/Toney.

 

[ffmail4me]

I'd say durability concerns are valid with Tank. Nico doesn't have those concerns.

He broke a bone in his leg and he's healed, it happens...it's a violent sport. It's not like he tore his knee or has chronic muscle issues like Watson/Toney.

True, but he also weights what, 165 pounds? Its a violent sport. I'm cheering for the guy, I have zero shares, but I would prefer my WRs to weigh at least as much as I do (190s) if not bigger

 

[Banger]

I'd say durability concerns are valid with Tank. Nico doesn't have those concerns.

He broke a bone in his leg and he's healed, it happens...it's a violent sport. It's not like he tore his knee or has chronic muscle issues like Watson/Toney.

True, but he also weights what, 165 pounds? Its a violent sport. I'm cheering for the guy, I have zero shares, but I would prefer my WRs to weigh at least as much as I do (190s) if not bigger

the weight is a fair point but his game is speed and quickness and if you can perform you can perform. It's not as if your bones are weaker if you weigh less. Devonta Smith is 170 pounds but it's not a knock against him?

I drafted Amon Ra as a rookie and there were some of the same bias's against him. It took several years performing at a top level until he finally got his due.

 

[Ilov80s]

I am team Tank but there is a worry between the 3 WRs, they all kind of become a difficult to predict roller coaster ride.

 

[jm192]

I've thought through this 10,000 times this off-season.

I currently have them:

Nico WR12. He had those 2 monster games late in the season. I think the time without Dell allowed Nico to establish more of a rapport with Stroud. I think he's a true alpha/the clear X receiver. He will draw the other team's top CB. He will be on the field every single play. He is huge and is going to be a bigger red zone threat. He also just had a bigger total season. 80 catches for 1297 yards and 8 TD's is...really nice. I actually think Nico is undervalued right now.

I have Dell at WR24. I think he's a very good receiver and I'll be ecstatic to have him. I'm even targeting him. I'm sure there will be weeks where he outscores Nico. That being said, I think Diggs affects Dell more than Nico. Both guys are similar. Both guys can play outside. Both guys can be very good from the slot. Whereas I think Nico is a lock as the X and is on the field every single passing play--Dell may not be. I don't think it's going to be 50% or 60%. But I think Nico sees SOME advantage here. If Tank is going at WR32, he's also undervalued. Maybe even Moreso than Nico.

I have Diggs at WR37. I think he's probably washed as far as being an ELITE fantasy receiver. I think he's the kind of guy that has more value to the Texans offense than your fantasy team. And I'm totally ok being wrong. I've thought about moving him down, but I'll probably take my chances at WR37. And he won't be there at WR37. So at that point it doesn't matter.

All of this as a guy who traded Nico away for Kyler Murray after Burrow hurt his wrist(1 QB). No ownership bias.

 

[Banger]

I am team Tank but there is a worry between the 3 WRs, they all kind of become a difficult to predict roller coaster ride.

that uncertainty is certainly a worry but it should be a worry for both players, no? For whatever reason Collins's ADP seems unaffected. Is there a reason why Tank would be more impacted than Nico with the arrival of Diggs?

 

[satch]

Your point is well taken. As many have said, Nico profiles as the classic alpha WR. He broke out in his first season with Stroud, and the Texans just made sure Nico isn’t going anywhere. It’s very reasonable to expect an ascending Collins and Stroud to pick up where they left off and then some.

Tank had a great rookie season and will likely have another very good season. As you mentioned, his game is speed, which often equals inconsistency. The big plays aren’t going to be there every week. I also think he caught defenses by surprise to an extent as a rookie, which won’t happen in 2024. Add in the slight build and Dell just doesn’t feel as safe and consistent as Collins.

 

[travdogg]

I like the idea of drafting both. I think they can easily co-exist, especially if Stroud has a big 2nd year leap like almost all the elite QB's (Mahomes, Jackson, Burrow, Herbert) did. I think they can both be top-15 WRs, especially if Diggs has indeed lost something.

I will dispute that Dell is just a big play guy. He's an outstanding route runner, which combined with his speed makes him really difficult to cover 1-1. Sure a CB may occasionally overpower him, but if he misses that jam, he just got cooked, because he isn't catching Dell from behind.

Collins is a sneaky great RAC guy. Like AJ Brown, he's a threat to catch a slant or screen and just bounce off guys.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I'd say durability concerns are valid with Tank. Nico doesn't have those concerns.

He broke a bone in his leg and he's healed, it happens...it's a violent sport. It's not like he tore his knee or has chronic muscle issues like Watson/Toney.

He’s kind of a little guy.

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

I am team Tank but there is a worry between the 3 WRs, they all kind of become a difficult to predict roller coaster ride.

that uncertainty is certainly a worry but it should be a worry for both players, no? For whatever reason Collins's ADP seems unaffected. Is there a reason why Tank would be more impacted than Nico with the arrival of Diggs?

Again, Tank is 5'8" 165lb. Only 1WR has been impactful at ~170lbs and that was DeSean Jackson. I'm betting that most FFL GMs do not feel Tank can handle the impact of a full NFL season at that playing weight. Even speed guys like Tyreek Hill play in the 190lb range. Tank may be the freak outlier in the sample, but I'm not betting a high draft pick on it.

 

[Banger]

Your point is well taken. As many have said, Nico profiles as the classic alpha WR. He broke out in his first season with Stroud, and the Texans just made sure Nico isn’t going anywhere. It’s very reasonable to expect an ascending Collins and Stroud to pick up where they left off and then some.

Tank had a great rookie season and will likely have another very good season. As you mentioned, his game is speed, which often equals inconsistency. The big plays aren’t going to be there every week. I also think he caught defenses by surprise to an extent as a rookie, which won’t happen in 2024. Add in the slight build and Dell just doesn’t feel as safe and consistent as Collins.

I get the profile difference which is why I brought up ARSB which seems silly now but it wasn't a couple years ago when I was having similar arguments in his favor. He had the same bias against him. Nico was a 3rd year player and Tank was playing in his first NFL games with a rookie QB but when both we're healthy the numbers were identical. If I were to choose between Nico and Tank I'd choose Nico by a hair but one guy is being drafted early 3rd while the other is drafted in 5th/6th round.

Don't really get your point about speed = inconsistency....I think the opposite...speed kills which is why every team looks to add as much as possible.

 

[Banger]

			Nico										Tank
YR	WK	OPP	oSNAP	TARG	REC	YD	TD	PPG		YR	WK	OPP	oSNAP	TARG	REC	YD	TD	PPG
2023	1	BAL	54	11	6	80	0	14		2023	1	BAL	37	4	3	34	0	6.4
2023	2	IND	52	9	7	146	1	27.6		2023	2	IND	66	10	7	72	1	20.2
2023	3	JAX	37	3	2	34	0	5.4		2023	3	JAX	34	7	5	145	1	25.5
2023	4	PIT	54	9	7	168	2	35.8		2023	4	PIT	50	3	1	16	0	2.6
2023	5	ATL	51	4	3	39	0	6.9		2023	5	ATL	21	4	3	57	0	8.7
2023	6	NO	46	6	4	80	0	12		2023	8	CAR	45	4	3	16	0	4.6
2023	8	CAR	42	6	4	30	0	7		2023	9	TB	61	11	6	114	2	29.4
2023	9	TB	57	5	3	54	1	14.4		2023	10	CIN	72	14	6	56	1	17.6
2023	11	ARI	51	11	7	65	0	13.5		2023	11	ARI	51	10	8	149	1	28.9
2023	12	JAX	46	9	7	104	1	23.4		2023	12	JAX	48	8	5	50	1	16
			490	73	50	800	5						485	75	47	709	7

these are the side by side numbers thru 10 games. Even the snap counts were nearly identical.

 

[Ilov80s]

I am team Tank but there is a worry between the 3 WRs, they all kind of become a difficult to predict roller coaster ride.

that uncertainty is certainly a worry but it should be a worry for both players, no? For whatever reason Collins's ADP seems unaffected. Is there a reason why Tank would be more impacted than Nico with the arrival of Diggs?

I guess it’s probably more likely that Nico is on the field in 2 and 3 sets. When Texans go 2 wide, how often is the other guy Tank cs Diggs?

But I agree with you and am generally avoiding all Texans.

 

[jm192]

I am team Tank but there is a worry between the 3 WRs, they all kind of become a difficult to predict roller coaster ride.

that uncertainty is certainly a worry but it should be a worry for both players, no? For whatever reason Collins's ADP seems unaffected. Is there a reason why Tank would be more impacted than Nico with the arrival of Diggs?

I guess it’s probably more likely that Nico is on the field in 2 and 3 sets. When Texans go 2 wide, how often is the other guy Tank cs Diggs?

But I agree with you and am generally avoiding all Texans.

This.

Nico will always be on the field.

In regards to avoiding them, I think it will have a little bit of a 49ers feel. Some weeks will be Nico weeks. Some weeks will be Dell weeks. Maybe a few Diggs weeks peppered in.

But at the end of the year, you're probably glad you had Deebo/Aiyuk.

 

[Banger]

I am team Tank but there is a worry between the 3 WRs, they all kind of become a difficult to predict roller coaster ride.

that uncertainty is certainly a worry but it should be a worry for both players, no? For whatever reason Collins's ADP seems unaffected. Is there a reason why Tank would be more impacted than Nico with the arrival of Diggs?

I guess it’s probably more likely that Nico is on the field in 2 and 3 sets. When Texans go 2 wide, how often is the other guy Tank cs Diggs?

But I agree with you and am generally avoiding all Texans.

fair question and I don't know the answer and don't know enough about the Texans offense to know how they plan on utilizing Diggs in their scheme. I'm guessing they are figuring that out themselves.

My guess is the FF community isn't being that scientific about it. They look at how Nico performed last year and don't realize that both players were nearly identical stat wise/snap wise when they played side by side.

 

[jm192]

I am team Tank but there is a worry between the 3 WRs, they all kind of become a difficult to predict roller coaster ride.

that uncertainty is certainly a worry but it should be a worry for both players, no? For whatever reason Collins's ADP seems unaffected. Is there a reason why Tank would be more impacted than Nico with the arrival of Diggs?

I guess it’s probably more likely that Nico is on the field in 2 and 3 sets. When Texans go 2 wide, how often is the other guy Tank cs Diggs?

But I agree with you and am generally avoiding all Texans.

fair question and I don't know the answer and don't know enough about the Texans offense to know how they plan on utilizing Diggs in their scheme. I'm guessing they are figuring that out themselves.

It's a game of making educated guesses based on information and reasoning.

Nico is not like the others. He is huge and physical. He is not a slot guy. He is the X. I don't think there's really a question about Nico's role.

Diggs and Dell are more similar. As I said earlier, both guys can play outside or the slot.

Simply trying to reason it out--If anyone is affected by Diggs, it's not Nico. Nico's snaps have no competition. That's why I think Nico has a higher upside and should be drafted higher.

 

[crushedspirit]

Nico is a true Alpha X WR who can succeed without Tank as was easily shown. He drew all the coverage and still exploded without Dell.

Take Nico away and see how Tank performs drawing all the coverage that Nico takes.

Then you'll find your answer.

 

[Banger]

Nico is a true Alpha X WR who can succeed without Tank as was easily shown. He drew all the coverage and still exploded without Dell.

Take Nico away and see how Tank performs drawing all the coverage that Nico takes.

Then you'll find your answer.

Nico was a non-factor his first 2 years in the league (90th / 79th)...his ascension has everything to do with CJ Stroud's breakout

 

[jm192]

Nico is a true Alpha X WR who can succeed without Tank as was easily shown. He drew all the coverage and still exploded without Dell.

Take Nico away and see how Tank performs drawing all the coverage that Nico takes.

Then you'll find your answer.

Nico was a non-factor his first 2 years in the league (90th / 79th)...his ascension has everything to do with CJ Stroud's breakout

I disagree there.

Nico was considered raw coming out. I think he evolved into a much better receiver last year. He had his own breakout.
Having great QB play helps WR's.
Having great WR play helps QB's.

As far as "what they did before this guy came along..."

We've never seen Dell in the NFL without Stroud.
We've never seen Stroud in the NFL without Nico/Dell.

I think if Nico/Dell were playing with someone like Cousins or Stafford, they would still be very good.
I think if Stroud was throwing to the likes of McLaurin and Tee Higgins, he would still be very good.

I think all 3 guys are very good players and they're all better off because they play together.

 

[TVT 0 N S T A]

Nico is a true Alpha X WR who can succeed without Tank as was easily shown. He drew all the coverage and still exploded without Dell.

Take Nico away and see how Tank performs drawing all the coverage that Nico takes.

Then you'll find your answer.

Nico was a non-factor his first 2 years in the league (90th / 79th)...his ascension has everything to do with CJ Stroud's breakout

Yeah, I disagree with the take that defenses were shifting coverage to Nico Collins. Difficult to call Nico Collins a true Alpha X, when last year was the first year he was able to embody that. This is a chicken and the egg type question, but I believe Tank Dell is the better value with his current ADP. I don't see a situation where I own either receiver in redraft but arguments can be made, before Tank Dell and/or Stroud came along - Nico was nobody.

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

Your point is well taken. As many have said, Nico profiles as the classic alpha WR. He broke out in his first season with Stroud, and the Texans just made sure Nico isn’t going anywhere. It’s very reasonable to expect an ascending Collins and Stroud to pick up where they left off and then some.

Tank had a great rookie season and will likely have another very good season. As you mentioned, his game is speed, which often equals inconsistency. The big plays aren’t going to be there every week. I also think he caught defenses by surprise to an extent as a rookie, which won’t happen in 2024. Add in the slight build and Dell just doesn’t feel as safe and consistent as Collins.

I get the profile difference which is why I brought up ARSB which seems silly now but it wasn't a couple years ago when I was having similar arguments in his favor. He had the same bias against him. Nico was a 3rd year player and Tank was playing in his first NFL games with a rookie QB but when both we're healthy the numbers were identical. If I were to choose between Nico and Tank I'd choose Nico by a hair but one guy is being drafted early 3rd while the other is drafted in 5th/6th round.

Don't really get your point about speed = inconsistency....I think the opposite...speed kills which is why every team looks to add as much as possible.

ARSB is 6' tall and 202lbs. He and Tank aren't of a similar build.

 

[Banger]

BTW...I have no issue with Nico and think he's a very good WR. Last year I had him and Dell in different leagues (not both on one team) and I saw them as largely interchangeable as they were both productive week to week.

We all think have our thoughts and speculation about how the Texans plan on using the wr's but does anyone have anything more concrete from the team / beat writers that indicates what the potential splits might be?

 

[Banger]

Your point is well taken. As many have said, Nico profiles as the classic alpha WR. He broke out in his first season with Stroud, and the Texans just made sure Nico isn’t going anywhere. It’s very reasonable to expect an ascending Collins and Stroud to pick up where they left off and then some.

Tank had a great rookie season and will likely have another very good season. As you mentioned, his game is speed, which often equals inconsistency. The big plays aren’t going to be there every week. I also think he caught defenses by surprise to an extent as a rookie, which won’t happen in 2024. Add in the slight build and Dell just doesn’t feel as safe and consistent as Collins.

I get the profile difference which is why I brought up ARSB which seems silly now but it wasn't a couple years ago when I was having similar arguments in his favor. He had the same bias against him. Nico was a 3rd year player and Tank was playing in his first NFL games with a rookie QB but when both we're healthy the numbers were identical. If I were to choose between Nico and Tank I'd choose Nico by a hair but one guy is being drafted early 3rd while the other is drafted in 5th/6th round.

Don't really get your point about speed = inconsistency....I think the opposite...speed kills which is why every team looks to add as much as possible.

ARSB is 6' tall and 202lbs. He and Tank aren't of a similar build.

I understand that...my point was more about bias's and thinking we know something when we don't and keeping an open mind. There are constantly exceptions to situations ...Manning was a choker until he wasn't, Tomlinson was going to break down due to his touch count and proceeded to break records, I could go on. This isn't a situation where it's a rookie draft and we aren't sure that Dell could be productive playing with the big boys. He proved as a rookie at that height and weight that he could make an impact and the only thing that's changed is the addition of Diggs.

this was his injury. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EN_TO3GeJd8

He got rolled up in a run play. It could've happened to any player on the field..,his height / weight had nothing to do with his injury. The same thing happens to 6'6" 300+ pound lineman routinely.

 

[MrSoup]

Bro got his leg broken on a terrible play call. If I recall, he was lined up tight to the formation, run blocking on a goal line run between the tackles. Never again.

 

[Banger]

Bro got his leg broken on a terrible play call. If I recall, he was lined up tight to the formation, run blocking on a goal line run between the tackles. Never again.

not the smartest play call....

 

[JoeJoe88]

Nico’s Perception Reception statistics are a thing of beauty. No doubt his ascension has a lot to do with Stroud, but had an incredible season last year, and it wasn’t solely because of the upgraded QB play. He is not a fluke.

 

[Dan Lambskin]

I think the entire Texans offense is overvalued, doubtful I end up with any of them on my teams

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

Your point is well taken. As many have said, Nico profiles as the classic alpha WR. He broke out in his first season with Stroud, and the Texans just made sure Nico isn’t going anywhere. It’s very reasonable to expect an ascending Collins and Stroud to pick up where they left off and then some.

Tank had a great rookie season and will likely have another very good season. As you mentioned, his game is speed, which often equals inconsistency. The big plays aren’t going to be there every week. I also think he caught defenses by surprise to an extent as a rookie, which won’t happen in 2024. Add in the slight build and Dell just doesn’t feel as safe and consistent as Collins.

I get the profile difference which is why I brought up ARSB which seems silly now but it wasn't a couple years ago when I was having similar arguments in his favor. He had the same bias against him. Nico was a 3rd year player and Tank was playing in his first NFL games with a rookie QB but when both we're healthy the numbers were identical. If I were to choose between Nico and Tank I'd choose Nico by a hair but one guy is being drafted early 3rd while the other is drafted in 5th/6th round.

Don't really get your point about speed = inconsistency....I think the opposite...speed kills which is why every team looks to add as much as possible.

ARSB is 6' tall and 202lbs. He and Tank aren't of a similar build.

I understand that...my point was more about bias's and thinking we know something when we don't and keeping an open mind. There are constantly exceptions to situations ...Manning was a choker until he wasn't, Tomlinson was going to break down due to his touch count and proceeded to break records, I could go on. This isn't a situation where it's a rookie draft and we aren't sure that Dell could be productive playing with the big boys. He proved as a rookie at that height and weight that he could make an impact and the only thing that's changed is the addition of Diggs.

this was his injury. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EN_TO3GeJd8

He got rolled up in a run play. It could've happened to any player on the field..,his height / weight had nothing to do with his injury. The same thing happens to 6'6" 300+ pound lineman routinely.

Right, but you're asking why is ADP is significantly lower than NIco's. His measurables are the reason. If he were 6' 190lb, we'd have folks talking about him like he's the next Tyreek.

 

[Banger]

Your point is well taken. As many have said, Nico profiles as the classic alpha WR. He broke out in his first season with Stroud, and the Texans just made sure Nico isn’t going anywhere. It’s very reasonable to expect an ascending Collins and Stroud to pick up where they left off and then some.

Tank had a great rookie season and will likely have another very good season. As you mentioned, his game is speed, which often equals inconsistency. The big plays aren’t going to be there every week. I also think he caught defenses by surprise to an extent as a rookie, which won’t happen in 2024. Add in the slight build and Dell just doesn’t feel as safe and consistent as Collins.

I get the profile difference which is why I brought up ARSB which seems silly now but it wasn't a couple years ago when I was having similar arguments in his favor. He had the same bias against him. Nico was a 3rd year player and Tank was playing in his first NFL games with a rookie QB but when both we're healthy the numbers were identical. If I were to choose between Nico and Tank I'd choose Nico by a hair but one guy is being drafted early 3rd while the other is drafted in 5th/6th round.

Don't really get your point about speed = inconsistency....I think the opposite...speed kills which is why every team looks to add as much as possible.

ARSB is 6' tall and 202lbs. He and Tank aren't of a similar build.

I understand that...my point was more about bias's and thinking we know something when we don't and keeping an open mind. There are constantly exceptions to situations ...Manning was a choker until he wasn't, Tomlinson was going to break down due to his touch count and proceeded to break records, I could go on. This isn't a situation where it's a rookie draft and we aren't sure that Dell could be productive playing with the big boys. He proved as a rookie at that height and weight that he could make an impact and the only thing that's changed is the addition of Diggs.

this was his injury. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EN_TO3GeJd8

He got rolled up in a run play. It could've happened to any player on the field..,his height / weight had nothing to do with his injury. The same thing happens to 6'6" 300+ pound lineman routinely.

Right, but you're asking why is ADP is significantly lower than NIco's. His measurables are the reason. If he were 6' 190lb, we'd have folks talking about him like he's the next Tyreek.

but last year they had the same measurables and their stats were identical....not sure why this year their measurables would suddenly kick in and make a difference. I can understand if Diggs was due to split time / play Dell's role then that would make sense. An ADP difference based on measurables is the exact bias I'm referring to.

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

Your point is well taken. As many have said, Nico profiles as the classic alpha WR. He broke out in his first season with Stroud, and the Texans just made sure Nico isn’t going anywhere. It’s very reasonable to expect an ascending Collins and Stroud to pick up where they left off and then some.

Tank had a great rookie season and will likely have another very good season. As you mentioned, his game is speed, which often equals inconsistency. The big plays aren’t going to be there every week. I also think he caught defenses by surprise to an extent as a rookie, which won’t happen in 2024. Add in the slight build and Dell just doesn’t feel as safe and consistent as Collins.

I get the profile difference which is why I brought up ARSB which seems silly now but it wasn't a couple years ago when I was having similar arguments in his favor. He had the same bias against him. Nico was a 3rd year player and Tank was playing in his first NFL games with a rookie QB but when both we're healthy the numbers were identical. If I were to choose between Nico and Tank I'd choose Nico by a hair but one guy is being drafted early 3rd while the other is drafted in 5th/6th round.

Don't really get your point about speed = inconsistency....I think the opposite...speed kills which is why every team looks to add as much as possible.

ARSB is 6' tall and 202lbs. He and Tank aren't of a similar build.

I understand that...my point was more about bias's and thinking we know something when we don't and keeping an open mind. There are constantly exceptions to situations ...Manning was a choker until he wasn't, Tomlinson was going to break down due to his touch count and proceeded to break records, I could go on. This isn't a situation where it's a rookie draft and we aren't sure that Dell could be productive playing with the big boys. He proved as a rookie at that height and weight that he could make an impact and the only thing that's changed is the addition of Diggs.

this was his injury. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EN_TO3GeJd8

He got rolled up in a run play. It could've happened to any player on the field..,his height / weight had nothing to do with his injury. The same thing happens to 6'6" 300+ pound lineman routinely.

Right, but you're asking why is ADP is significantly lower than NIco's. His measurables are the reason. If he were 6' 190lb, we'd have folks talking about him like he's the next Tyreek.

but last year they had the same measurables and their stats were identical....not sure why this year their measurables would suddenly kick in and make a difference. I can understand if Diggs was due to split time / play Dell's role then that would make sense. An ADP difference based on measurables is the exact bias I'm referring to.

ADP based on measurables means that the majority of FFL owners think Dell is too fragile at his size to play in 17 NFL games. It's that simple.

 

[TripItUp]

Last year Nico was a 3rd year player while Tank was a rookie. Nico had a very solid year last year while Tank unfortunately got hurt in week 13. Through week 12 last year Nico had 73 targets / 50 catches / 800 yards / 5 TDs (160 pts) while Tank had 75 targets / 47 catches / 709 yard / 7 TDs (159.9 pts). So Nico outperformed Tank by .1 points last year when both were playing and healthy yet this year Nico is WR16 while Tank is WR32, why? If you love the Texans offense like most do, why wouldn't you let someone else take Nico and scoop Tank everywhere you can?

Because NICO is expected to play the most snaps, while it's unclear how many Tank will play.

Aslo, tank is pop warner sized.

 

[crushedspirit]

Nico’s Perception Reception statistics are a thing of beauty. No doubt his ascension has a lot to do with Stroud, but had an incredible season last year, and it wasn’t solely because of the upgraded QB play. He is not a fluke.

This x100

The signs were there and many drafted him even with not knowing that Stroud would perform like he did.

Diggs will cut into Dell's role while Nico stays on the field in every WR set. Nico's role remains unchanged and his floor is higher due to that reality.

 

[BobbyLayne]

I've thought through this 10,000 times this off-season.

I currently have them:

Nico WR12. He had those 2 monster games late in the season. I think the time without Dell allowed Nico to establish more of a rapport with Stroud. I think he's a true alpha/the clear X receiver. He will draw the other team's top CB. He will be on the field every single play. He is huge and is going to be a bigger red zone threat. He also just had a bigger total season. 80 catches for 1297 yards and 8 TD's is...really nice. I actually think Nico is undervalued right now.

I have Dell at WR24. I think he's a very good receiver and I'll be ecstatic to have him. I'm even targeting him. I'm sure there will be weeks where he outscores Nico. That being said, I think Diggs affects Dell more than Nico. Both guys are similar. Both guys can play outside. Both guys can be very good from the slot. Whereas I think Nico is a lock as the X and is on the field every single passing play--Dell may not be. I don't think it's going to be 50% or 60%. But I think Nico sees SOME advantage here. If Tank is going at WR32, he's also undervalued. Maybe even Moreso than Nico.

I have Diggs at WR37. I think he's probably washed as far as being an ELITE fantasy receiver. I think he's the kind of guy that has more value to the Texans offense than your fantasy team. And I'm totally ok being wrong. I've thought about moving him down, but I'll probably take my chances at WR37. And he won't be there at WR37. So at that point it doesn't matter.

All of this as a guy who traded Nico away for Kyler Murray after Burrow hurt his wrist(1 QB). No ownership bias.

Similar. I review/adjust my redraft rankings almost daily & currently have it:

• Collins WR15
• Dell WR18
• Diggs WR30

I’m basing this on the youngsters already have a connection with Stroud will be playing mostly outside. I also think it’s worth asking if we’ve seen Collins peak (prob no), have we seen Dell’s peak (def no), and will we see Diggs return to peak (likely no.)

 

[pinkstapler]

For all the injury concerns around Tank, people seem to be glossing over the fact Nico has missed 12 games the past 3 seasons and appears to already be banged up in training camp right now. He is far from the model picture of health. He's a great WR, but using the fear of Tank getting injured to prop up Nico when Nico's history with injuries is just as bad if not worse seems like a poor argument.

 

[jm192]

BTW...I have no issue with Nico and think he's a very good WR. Last year I had him and Dell in different leagues (not both on one team) and I saw them as largely interchangeable as they were both productive week to week.

We all think have our thoughts and speculation about how the Texans plan on using the wr's but does anyone have anything more concrete from the team / beat writers that indicates what the potential splits might be?

It's a game of predict the future.
I think the nature of the game is dealing with this speculation.

There are countless situations we don't know anything concrete on. So we are stuck formulating educated guesses. Is Burrow's wrist ok? Is Watson's shoulder ok? How do I think the Rams will use Corum and what does that mean for Kyren? How much volume can Jameson Williams earn and what does that mean for the other pass catchers? Are the Falcons REALLY going to keep giving work to Allgier?

I think it's likely Diggs affects Dell. I believe pretty strongly that Diggs affects Dell more than Nico. So I'm acting on that. Therefore Dell goes a little lower than he would if Diggs hadn't come. It's probably not a lot lower. But mentally, I'm accounting for it.

Could that be wrong? Absolutely. But what I can't do is say "I don't know FOR 100% CERTAIN so I'll pretend it doesn't exist."

But we're literally playing a game of trying to predict the future. You can't say "We don't know that for certain." There's so much we don't know for certain.

 

[Banger]

BTW...I have no issue with Nico and think he's a very good WR. Last year I had him and Dell in different leagues (not both on one team) and I saw them as largely interchangeable as they were both productive week to week.

We all think have our thoughts and speculation about how the Texans plan on using the wr's but does anyone have anything more concrete from the team / beat writers that indicates what the potential splits might be?

It's a game of predict the future.
I think the nature of the game is dealing with this speculation.

There are countless situations we don't know anything concrete on. So we are stuck formulating educated guesses. Is Burrow's wrist ok? Is Watson's shoulder ok? How do I think the Rams will use Corum and what does that mean for Kyren? How much volume can Jameson Williams earn and what does that mean for the other pass catchers? Are the Falcons REALLY going to keep giving work to Allgier?

I think it's likely Diggs affects Dell. I believe pretty strongly that Diggs affects Dell more than Nico. So I'm acting on that. Therefore Dell goes a little lower than he would if Diggs hadn't come. It's probably not a lot lower. But mentally, I'm accounting for it.

Could that be wrong? Absolutely. But what I can't do is say "I don't know FOR 100% CERTAIN so I'll pretend it doesn't exist."

But we're literally playing a game of trying to predict the future. You can't say "We don't know that for certain." There's so much we don't know for certain.

Totally get it and agree and that's what fantasy football is largely about...making your bets with incomplete information and then seeing how they pay off. In making my bets I just try and get as much information as possible, process it and make my best educated guess. The Texans are an offense I want to put chips down on this year so I was just trying to see if anyone had any coach speak / beat writer evidence stating that player X has been running these routes, in 2 WR sets (X & Y have consistently been on the field), we brought in Diggs to be the slot guy, etc.. I've literally heard nothing (outside of Shark Pool speculation) regarding Diggs planned usage.

I posted this thread because I did have both players last year and viewed them as interchangeable and looking at the difference between their ADPs it jumped out to me. I think there is an incorrect perception (backed up by Nico's ADP) that Nico dominated touches/snaps/targets but they were nearly identical across the board...the big difference is Dell got hurt and Nico did not.

I don't have any concrete Diggs info yet (outside of Keenum saying he looks good)...how he's fitting in, what role he's playing, is he going to be a locker room issue in Texas, did the Bills move him because he's near the end or does he have more left in the tank. I'm certainly listening but my conclusion so far is that I'll let someone else take Nico and I'll load up on Dell where I can.

 

[pinkstapler]

BTW...I have no issue with Nico and think he's a very good WR. Last year I had him and Dell in different leagues (not both on one team) and I saw them as largely interchangeable as they were both productive week to week.

We all think have our thoughts and speculation about how the Texans plan on using the wr's but does anyone have anything more concrete from the team / beat writers that indicates what the potential splits might be?

It's a game of predict the future.
I think the nature of the game is dealing with this speculation.

There are countless situations we don't know anything concrete on. So we are stuck formulating educated guesses. Is Burrow's wrist ok? Is Watson's shoulder ok? How do I think the Rams will use Corum and what does that mean for Kyren? How much volume can Jameson Williams earn and what does that mean for the other pass catchers? Are the Falcons REALLY going to keep giving work to Allgier?

I think it's likely Diggs affects Dell. I believe pretty strongly that Diggs affects Dell more than Nico. So I'm acting on that. Therefore Dell goes a little lower than he would if Diggs hadn't come. It's probably not a lot lower. But mentally, I'm accounting for it.

Could that be wrong? Absolutely. But what I can't do is say "I don't know FOR 100% CERTAIN so I'll pretend it doesn't exist."

But we're literally playing a game of trying to predict the future. You can't say "We don't know that for certain." There's so much we don't know for certain.

Totally get it and agree and that's what fantasy football is largely about...making your bets with incomplete information and then seeing how they pay off. In making my bets I just try and get as much information as possible, process it and make my best educated guess. The Texans are an offense I want to put chips down on this year so I was just trying to see if anyone had any coach speak / beat writer evidence stating that player X has been running these routes, in 2 WR sets (X & Y have consistently been on the field), we brought in Diggs to be the slot guy, etc.. I've literally heard nothing (outside of Shark Pool speculation) regarding Diggs planned usage.

I posted this thread because I did have both players last year and viewed them as interchangeable and looking at the difference between their ADPs it jumped out to me. I think there is an incorrect perception (backed up by Nico's ADP) that Nico dominated touches/snaps/targets but they were nearly identical across the board...the big difference is Dell got hurt and Nico did not.

I don't have any concrete Diggs info yet (outside of Keenum saying he looks good)...how he's fitting in, what role he's playing, is he going to be a locker room issue in Texas, did the Bills move him because he's near the end or does he have more left in the tank. I'm certainly listening but my conclusion so far is that I'll let someone else take Nico and I'll load up on Dell where I can.

"
Stefon Diggs 'appears to be' Texans No. 1 WR early in camp
11 days ago via Fantasy Pros
According to Texans beat reporter DJ Bien-Aime, Stefon Diggs has led all Houston wide receivers in targets and catches through the first eight practices of training camp.
Analysis:Bien-Aime added that Nico Collins has been second in targets, followed by Tank Dell. It is still early in camp, but it remains a situation to monitor nonetheless. "

Also, I believe Nico did get hurt last year. He left the game against the Jets early only having 1 target before exiting, then he missed the following week completely against the Titans, and played limited touches week 16 against the Browns. Counted as one missed game, but really it translated to about 2.5 games based on usage.

 

[TakiToki]

I'm nowhere near accepting of the notion that this offense is high-powered enough to feed any of these mouths, much less multiple of them.

Stroud played very well as a rookie but was also sun-running with mid-to-high teens of dropped interceptions.

Mixon has good hands and can absorb a high workload as a runner.

To me, this looks like a recipe for disappointing WR bulk stats as a unit.

 

[TVT 0 N S T A]

I'm nowhere near accepting of the notion that this offense is high-powered enough to feed any of these mouths, much less multiple of them.

Stroud played very well as a rookie but was also sun-running with mid-to-high teens of dropped interceptions.

Mixon has good hands and can absorb a high workload as a runner.

To me, this looks like a recipe for disappointing WR bulk stats as a unit.

This.

I don't think they will be a terrible offense, but I think there is a lot of hype around these guys and there are just too many mouths to feed. I like Mixon in redraft because I think opportunities will be there but I have referred to this offense as Fantasy Football Whack-A-Mole and I still very much believe that in Redraft.

It isn't to say I don't like Nico Collins but i like guys going around him better - Drake London, DK Metcalf, Devante Adams, Chris Olave, Isaiah Pacheco, Jaylen Waddle, DJ Moore all go around Nico Collins area and those players have more talent than Nico Collins does. The first 4 guys I named are the bonafide alpha X everyone is claiming Nico is.

Tank Dell/Diggs is the area where things get a little more murky - Zay Flowers, Malik Nabers, a group of decent RB's... it depends on what your approach is.

 

[rschroeder1]

For all the injury concerns around Tank, people seem to be glossing over the fact Nico has missed 12 games the past 3 seasons and appears to already be banged up in training camp right now. He is far from the model picture of health. He's a great WR, but using the fear of Tank getting injured to prop up Nico when Nico's history with injuries is just as bad if not worse seems like a poor argument.

I disagree with this assessment. Football is inherently a violent sport, and injuries are not going to be equally distributed. If Collins suffered from recurring soft tissue injury, like Alshon Jeffery, there would be ample reason to be concerned. His injury history suggests more so that he's been a victim of playing football more than anything else.

2021

Pro Bowl cornerback Denzel Ward caught Collins from behind for a routine tackle, driving his shoulder into the dirt. Right away, the receiver knew something was wrong. Re-enacting the scene here, Collins could barely lift his arm to signal first down. He prayed it was just a stinger, felt pain in his collarbone and stayed on the field.

Collins recalls his right arm helplessly “hanging.” As if it completely malfunctioned.

In 2022, he suffered a pulled groin and foot sprain.

In 2023, he suffered a calf strain.

None of these are linked or recurring.

 

[-jb-]

.

Fantasy Football Whack-A-Mole

well-articulated.

 

[pinkstapler]

For all the injury concerns around Tank, people seem to be glossing over the fact Nico has missed 12 games the past 3 seasons and appears to already be banged up in training camp right now. He is far from the model picture of health. He's a great WR, but using the fear of Tank getting injured to prop up Nico when Nico's history with injuries is just as bad if not worse seems like a poor argument.

I disagree with this assessment. Football is inherently a violent sport, and injuries are not going to be equally distributed. If Collins suffered from recurring soft tissue injury, like Alshon Jeffery, there would be ample reason to be concerned. His injury history suggests more so that he's been a victim of playing football more than anything else.

2021

Pro Bowl cornerback Denzel Ward caught Collins from behind for a routine tackle, driving his shoulder into the dirt. Right away, the receiver knew something was wrong. Re-enacting the scene here, Collins could barely lift his arm to signal first down. He prayed it was just a stinger, felt pain in his collarbone and stayed on the field.

Collins recalls his right arm helplessly “hanging.” As if it completely malfunctioned.

In 2022, he suffered a pulled groin and foot sprain.

In 2023, he suffered a calf strain.

None of these are linked or recurring.

They are reoccuring in the fact he hasn't played a full season in 3 years lol. Regardless, you completely missed my point. People who are trying to make the point of Nico over Tank because of injury are factually wrong, especially considering Nico has a record of suffering injuries every year the past 3 years, meanwhile they are just projecting injuries to Tank because "he 2 smol". There are a lot of legitimate good arguments to be made on why someone would have Nico ahead of Tank, I'd agree with a lot of them myself. But the injury argument is unfounded and dumb. Projecting injuries tends to always be unfounded and dumb outside obvious chronic cases IMO. Normally what people are dancing around but not saying is a players willingness and ability to play through injuries, as I'd agree with you, football is a violent sport and the only people who aren't banged up come December are the ones riding the bench every game.

 

[pinkstapler]

I'm nowhere near accepting of the notion that this offense is high-powered enough to feed any of these mouths, much less multiple of them.

Stroud played very well as a rookie but was also sun-running with mid-to-high teens of dropped interceptions.

Mixon has good hands and can absorb a high workload as a runner.

To me, this looks like a recipe for disappointing WR bulk stats as a unit.

This.

I don't think they will be a terrible offense, but I think there is a lot of hype around these guys and there are just too many mouths to feed. I like Mixon in redraft because I think opportunities will be there but I have referred to this offense as Fantasy Football Whack-A-Mole and I still very much believe that in Redraft.

It isn't to say I don't like Nico Collins but i like guys going around him better - Drake London, DK Metcalf, Devante Adams, Chris Olave, Isaiah Pacheco, Jaylen Waddle, DJ Moore all go around Nico Collins area and those players have more talent than Nico Collins does. The first 4 guys I named are the bonafide alpha X everyone is claiming Nico is.

Tank Dell/Diggs is the area where things get a little more murky - Zay Flowers, Malik Nabers, a group of decent RB's... it depends on what your approach is.

Feel like this is a great point too. I've gotten hardly any Nico in my drafts, and it's not because I don't like him as a player or his talent, it's really his ADP. I've gotten Diggs the most, and again, it's not because I think he's the best WR on the team, but when I can snag him as my WR3 in the fourth round it feels like a steal. Also I don't buy the decline. Regardless, Pittman is the only other WR in that range I'm buying so it just works out Diggs winds up being at the top of my queue that point in the draft.

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

I'm nowhere near accepting of the notion that this offense is high-powered enough to feed any of these mouths, much less multiple of them.

Stroud played very well as a rookie but was also sun-running with mid-to-high teens of dropped interceptions.

Mixon has good hands and can absorb a high workload as a runner.

To me, this looks like a recipe for disappointing WR bulk stats as a unit.

This.

I don't think they will be a terrible offense, but I think there is a lot of hype around these guys and there are just too many mouths to feed. I like Mixon in redraft because I think opportunities will be there but I have referred to this offense as Fantasy Football Whack-A-Mole and I still very much believe that in Redraft.

It isn't to say I don't like Nico Collins but i like guys going around him better - Drake London, DK Metcalf, Devante Adams, Chris Olave, Isaiah Pacheco, Jaylen Waddle, DJ Moore all go around Nico Collins area and those players have more talent than Nico Collins does. The first 4 guys I named are the bonafide alpha X everyone is claiming Nico is.

Tank Dell/Diggs is the area where things get a little more murky - Zay Flowers, Malik Nabers, a group of decent RB's... it depends on what your approach is.

Yep. Also, opposing DCs now have tape on CJ Stroud and his habits. It would not surprise me to see him regress a good bit as a still very young starting QB.

 

[rschroeder1]

For all the injury concerns around Tank, people seem to be glossing over the fact Nico has missed 12 games the past 3 seasons and appears to already be banged up in training camp right now. He is far from the model picture of health. He's a great WR, but using the fear of Tank getting injured to prop up Nico when Nico's history with injuries is just as bad if not worse seems like a poor argument.

I disagree with this assessment. Football is inherently a violent sport, and injuries are not going to be equally distributed. If Collins suffered from recurring soft tissue injury, like Alshon Jeffery, there would be ample reason to be concerned. His injury history suggests more so that he's been a victim of playing football more than anything else.

2021

Pro Bowl cornerback Denzel Ward caught Collins from behind for a routine tackle, driving his shoulder into the dirt. Right away, the receiver knew something was wrong. Re-enacting the scene here, Collins could barely lift his arm to signal first down. He prayed it was just a stinger, felt pain in his collarbone and stayed on the field.

Collins recalls his right arm helplessly “hanging.” As if it completely malfunctioned.

In 2022, he suffered a pulled groin and foot sprain.

In 2023, he suffered a calf strain.

None of these are linked or recurring.

They are reoccuring in the fact he hasn't played a full season in 3 years lol. Regardless, you completely missed my point. People who are trying to make the point of Nico over Tank because of injury are factually wrong, especially considering Nico has a record of suffering injuries every year the past 3 years, meanwhile they are just projecting injuries to Tank because "he 2 smol". There are a lot of legitimate good arguments to be made on why someone would have Nico ahead of Tank, I'd agree with a lot of them myself. But the injury argument is unfounded and dumb. Projecting injuries tends to always be unfounded and dumb outside obvious chronic cases IMO. Normally what people are dancing around but not saying is a players willingness and ability to play through injuries, as I'd agree with you, football is a violent sport and the only people who aren't banged up come December are the ones riding the bench every game.

I would agree, for the most part it's a fool's errand to draft players based on forecasting future injuries, outside of those recurring soft tissue injuries. There are a couple studies out there that don't find a correlation between BMI and injury risk in professional football, in Dell's case. I think it's entirely fair to cast Dell's injury as "something that happens in professional football."

 

[pinkstapler]

For all the injury concerns around Tank, people seem to be glossing over the fact Nico has missed 12 games the past 3 seasons and appears to already be banged up in training camp right now. He is far from the model picture of health. He's a great WR, but using the fear of Tank getting injured to prop up Nico when Nico's history with injuries is just as bad if not worse seems like a poor argument.

I disagree with this assessment. Football is inherently a violent sport, and injuries are not going to be equally distributed. If Collins suffered from recurring soft tissue injury, like Alshon Jeffery, there would be ample reason to be concerned. His injury history suggests more so that he's been a victim of playing football more than anything else.

2021

Pro Bowl cornerback Denzel Ward caught Collins from behind for a routine tackle, driving his shoulder into the dirt. Right away, the receiver knew something was wrong. Re-enacting the scene here, Collins could barely lift his arm to signal first down. He prayed it was just a stinger, felt pain in his collarbone and stayed on the field.

Collins recalls his right arm helplessly “hanging.” As if it completely malfunctioned.

In 2022, he suffered a pulled groin and foot sprain.

In 2023, he suffered a calf strain.

None of these are linked or recurring.

They are reoccuring in the fact he hasn't played a full season in 3 years lol. Regardless, you completely missed my point. People who are trying to make the point of Nico over Tank because of injury are factually wrong, especially considering Nico has a record of suffering injuries every year the past 3 years, meanwhile they are just projecting injuries to Tank because "he 2 smol". There are a lot of legitimate good arguments to be made on why someone would have Nico ahead of Tank, I'd agree with a lot of them myself. But the injury argument is unfounded and dumb. Projecting injuries tends to always be unfounded and dumb outside obvious chronic cases IMO. Normally what people are dancing around but not saying is a players willingness and ability to play through injuries, as I'd agree with you, football is a violent sport and the only people who aren't banged up come December are the ones riding the bench every game.

I would agree, for the most part it's a fool's errand to draft players based on forecasting future injuries, outside of those recurring soft tissue injuries. There are a couple studies out there that don't find a correlation between BMI and injury risk in professional football, in Dell's case. I think it's entirely fair to cast Dell's injury as "something that happens in professional football."

In my meaningless, unfounded, and completely subjective opinion; I'd bet on both of them missing a couple games this season tbh. But considering when I look at people who project actual stats for players in the NFL, they almost always project for missed time; yeah it's not much of a limb to go out on for pretty much any NFL player to miss time haha. I'm mainly hoping I don't have to see them lining up Dell in the back field to block on a short field anymore though. That just seems to be asking for trouble.