Target LJ in week 5-6 and reap the benefit (1 Viewer)

[NatronIsMean]

I posted this in another thread, but thought I'd bring it up in a new post.

LJ faces a horrific schedule in the near future:

Opponent and D-Rank against the Run*

*For D-Rank against the Run, I used (last years Points Allowed to RBs * .80) + (Week 1 Points Allowed to RBs *.20)

02 @ CHI - 9

03 - MIN - 7

04 @ SD - 8

05 - JAC - 12

By that point, his value should be relatively low. He will also have his BYE week coming up. Depending on some factors (how the offense looks overall, how the oline is performing, how healthy he looks, etc), he should have a very nice latter 2/3 performance:

06 - CIN - 21

07 - OAK - 27

08 - BYE

09 - GB - 15

10 - DEN - 25

11 @ IND - 27

12 - OAK - 27

13 - SD - 8

14 @ DEN - 25

15 - TEN - 24

16 @ DET - 26

We don't know how these defenses are truly going to be yet. It's something that I'll continue to track. However, by week 5-6, we should have a pretty damn good idea.

There's plenty of risk with LJ this year, but if this were an obvious move, it wouldn't be worth analyzing. Thoughts?

 

[HoTnickZ]

I'd target him even sooner as incentive for the LJ owner to give him up. The buy right before his schedule softens is a little too transparent.

Maybe before week 4 in Jax, Tenn managed to run all over them and their offense shouldn't negate the KC run opportunities.

 

[Random]

I posted this in another thread, but thought I'd bring it up in a new post.

LJ faces a horrific schedule in the near future:

Opponent and D-Rank against the Run*

*For D-Rank against the Run, I used (last years Points Allowed to RBs * .80) + (Week 1 Points Allowed to RBs *.20)

02 @ CHI - 9

03 - MIN - 7

04 @ SD - 8

05 - JAC - 12

By that point, his value should be relatively low. He will also have his BYE week coming up. Depending on some factors (how the offense looks overall, how the oline is performing, how healthy he looks, etc), he should have a very nice latter 2/3 performance:

06 - CIN - 21

07 - OAK - 27

08 - BYE

09 - GB - 15

10 - DEN - 25

11 @ IND - 27

12 - OAK - 27

13 - SD - 8

14 @ DEN - 25

15 - TEN - 24

16 @ DET - 26

We don't know how these defenses are truly going to be yet. It's something that I'll continue to track. However, by week 5-6, we should have a pretty damn good idea.

There's plenty of risk with LJ this year, but if this were an obvious move, it wouldn't be worth analyzing. Thoughts?

Great observation NatronIsMean. Wish I'd heard about this before. Do you have a website I can subscribe to?

 

[BLOX]

This thread should be deleted. Plus, the OP didn't cite his original source. That's plagarism.

 

[BoltzNBrew]

While the last 2 games of the KC schedule is somewhat favorable KC is a very bad team this year. Until they prove they can pass they will have a hard time running.

 

[BroadwayG]

Groundbreaking news.

 

[Sid G]

This thread should be deleted. Plus, the OP didn't cite his original source. That's plagarism.

The original source could be one of about five different places I've seen this observation made, not just this site. Not to rule out the possibility that he came up with it on his own--there's no law that says you have to read every article/post at a site before posting yourself.

 

[NatronIsMean]

Wow. I definitely am not a premium guy here, and did not steal info if that is the insinuation.

For the record, If anyone wants a copy of the stat spreadsheet that I use for this, I'm happy to email it to you. I threw it up here last season a bunch of times for what it's worth.

Here are some screenshots to show where my numbers (and theory) came from:

NatronTracker Spreadsheet

Another Screenshot

The Points Against RBs Formula

So while maybe not original, I'm the last guy to steal a theory and try to pawn it as my own. I really get nothing out of it.

 

[el-gato-grande]

As an LJ owner, I would say you couldn't trade him right now and get any value. For top backs that are struggling, you almost have to ride it out otherwise you're almost conceding the season unless someone in your league would be willing to part with SJAX, Gore, LT, or a top QB for LJ. You just can't make up the points otherwise.

 

[NatronIsMean]

As an LJ owner, I would say you couldn't trade him right now and get any value. For top backs that are struggling, you almost have to ride it out otherwise you're almost conceding the season unless someone in your league would be willing to part with SJAX, Gore, LT, or a top QB for LJ. You just can't make up the points otherwise.

I totally agree. I'm an LJ owner actually, but this post is targeted at someone that is not but is a saavy owner and wants to get a later-season stud. I think LJ will be studly later as long as he doesn't get worn down in this brutal beginning schedule.

 

[Dirty Weasel]

FWIW, I just traded away Westbrook and Witten for LJ. Yes, it sounds steep, but it's a 10-teamer and I already have Gates. I know Westy may outscore LJ for a few weeks, but that's the price I was willing to pay.

 

[Judge Smails]

Shrewd LJ drafters were aware of and expected the slow start with the holdout and tough schedule. If we can just be .500 the first month or so the future is bright. For those that start 0-4, well.....

I'm holding. He'll outscore many of the RB's currently being crowed about (Addai, etc.) by boatloads later on.

 

[mcjc4]

Shrewd LJ drafters were aware of and expected the slow start with the holdout and tough schedule. If we can just be .500 the first month or so the future is bright. For those that start 0-4, well.....

I'm holding. He'll outscore many of the RB's currently being crowed about (Addai, etc.) by boatloads later on.

If you don't get to 2-2 and are 0-4 or 1-3, in most leagues you have lost your 1st round of division games and the odds are probably not good for you to make the playoffs. I don't believe anyone who is "SHRWED" drafts a player in the 1st 5 picks and knows they may start 0-4 or 1-3. Anyone who drafted LJ believed he would sahre carries week 1 and then assume he would LJ of old by week 2. The fact is, this team is brutal, LJ is now stuck on a team that can not produce any offense around him. everyone is game planning to stop him.I thought I got a steal in an auction with gonzo for $3.00 out of $100.00. What I realize after the pre-season and week 1 is, I got is a player on the backside of his carrer playing with the worst offense in the NFL. I hope they paly Cleveland week 15! i would have said Houston week 16, but we all saw how that went.

 

[Judge Smails]

Shrewd LJ drafters were aware of and expected the slow start with the holdout and tough schedule. If we can just be .500 the first month or so the future is bright. For those that start 0-4, well.....

I'm holding. He'll outscore many of the RB's currently being crowed about (Addai, etc.) by boatloads later on.

If you don't get to 2-2 and are 0-4 or 1-3, in most leagues you have lost your 1st round of division games and the odds are probably not good for you to make the playoffs. I don't believe anyone who is "SHRWED" drafts a player in the 1st 5 picks and knows they may start 0-4 or 1-3. Anyone who drafted LJ believed he would sahre carries week 1 and then assume he would LJ of old by week 2. The fact is, this team is brutal, LJ is now stuck on a team that can not produce any offense around him. everyone is game planning to stop him.I thought I got a steal in an auction with gonzo for $3.00 out of $100.00. What I realize after the pre-season and week 1 is, I got is a player on the backside of his carrer playing with the worst offense in the NFL. I hope they paly Cleveland week 15! i would have said Houston week 16, but we all saw how that went.

Whatever. I thought long and hard about the LJ pick at 4. It came down to this. I thought that there was a good chance that he would substantially outscore any available RB in the second half of the season and the playoffs. I don't want to just make the playoffs - I'm trying to win a Superbowl. My plan then was to make sure I had quality depth at RB to be able to weather the storm. So I took AP as my RB3 in the 4th round. Romo, Steve Smith, MN defense an AP led me to 1-0 start and high points in the league. I agree with you that the Chiefs are brutal. But come week 6 or so, there will be many 30 carry, 130 yard days plus 1-2 TD's for Mr. Johnson. Don't be so quick to cry genius. And what the hell does your 2nd paragraph have to do anything?

 

[LHUCKS]

It's obviously safe to assume LJ will improve once his schedule softens up but don't expect 2005 LJ, teams will be stacking the box given the struggling QB play. Also, as KC is eliminated from playoff contention early there would be no reason to run LJ into the ground.

Ok to buy low on LJ, just don't expect too much.

 

[maxwell1295]

I'm hoping he gets shut down this weekend so I can try to steal him away in a couple of leagues...

 

[Tau837]

It's obviously safe to assume LJ will improve once his schedule softens up but don't expect 2005 LJ, teams will be stacking the box given the struggling QB play. Also, as KC is eliminated from playoff contention early there would be no reason to run LJ into the ground.

2006 LJ will be just fine, thanks. 137 yards and 1.2 TDs per game will be just fine.I have no idea why everyone in this thread is assuming that a slow start for LJ could equate to 0-4, 1-3, or even 2-2. Don't you guys draft good players with your other picks? I expect to make the playoffs, slow start or not. And I expect LJ to be big for me then.

 

[Judge Smails]

It's obviously safe to assume LJ will improve once his schedule softens up but don't expect 2005 LJ, teams will be stacking the box given the struggling QB play. Also, as KC is eliminated from playoff contention early there would be no reason to run LJ into the ground.

2006 LJ will be just fine, thanks. 137 yards and 1.2 TDs per game will be just fine.I have no idea why everyone in this thread is assuming that a slow start for LJ could equate to 0-4, 1-3, or even 2-2. Don't you guys draft good players with your other picks? I expect to make the playoffs, slow start or not. And I expect LJ to be big for me then.

No, but I'm in a shark league where the other owners draft well too. So, if I'm sitting my first round pick this week, and they are not, you'd have to think they might have a slight advantage. The drafting of AP for me has made the difference.

 

[NatronIsMean]

It's obviously safe to assume LJ will improve once his schedule softens up but don't expect 2005 LJ, teams will be stacking the box given the struggling QB play. Also, as KC is eliminated from playoff contention early there would be no reason to run LJ into the ground.

2006 LJ will be just fine, thanks. 137 yards and 1.2 TDs per game will be just fine.I have no idea why everyone in this thread is assuming that a slow start for LJ could equate to 0-4, 1-3, or even 2-2. Don't you guys draft good players with your other picks? I expect to make the playoffs, slow start or not. And I expect LJ to be big for me then.

No, but I'm in a shark league where the other owners draft well too. So, if I'm sitting my first round pick this week, and they are not, you'd have to think they might have a slight advantage. The drafting of AP for me has made the difference.

I'm an AP owner as well, and TOTALLY agree regarding the desire to build for the end of the season. I'm in a very competitive league, where for whatever reason, 8 of 12 teams make the playoffs. That really discounts the regular season, and adds to the need to really rock out in weeks 14-16. So for me, I'm banking that I will make the playoffs, and am betting that AP and LJ will be key factors late in the season.

 

[Tau837]

It's obviously safe to assume LJ will improve once his schedule softens up but don't expect 2005 LJ, teams will be stacking the box given the struggling QB play. Also, as KC is eliminated from playoff contention early there would be no reason to run LJ into the ground.

2006 LJ will be just fine, thanks. 137 yards and 1.2 TDs per game will be just fine.I have no idea why everyone in this thread is assuming that a slow start for LJ could equate to 0-4, 1-3, or even 2-2. Don't you guys draft good players with your other picks? I expect to make the playoffs, slow start or not. And I expect LJ to be big for me then.

No, but I'm in a shark league where the other owners draft well too. So, if I'm sitting my first round pick this week, and they are not, you'd have to think they might have a slight advantage. The drafting of AP for me has made the difference.

Who said to sit him? I didn't. I'm playing him.

 

[NatronIsMean]

It's obviously safe to assume LJ will improve once his schedule softens up but don't expect 2005 LJ, teams will be stacking the box given the struggling QB play. Also, as KC is eliminated from playoff contention early there would be no reason to run LJ into the ground.

2006 LJ will be just fine, thanks. 137 yards and 1.2 TDs per game will be just fine.I have no idea why everyone in this thread is assuming that a slow start for LJ could equate to 0-4, 1-3, or even 2-2. Don't you guys draft good players with your other picks? I expect to make the playoffs, slow start or not. And I expect LJ to be big for me then.

No, but I'm in a shark league where the other owners draft well too. So, if I'm sitting my first round pick this week, and they are not, you'd have to think they might have a slight advantage. The drafting of AP for me has made the difference.

Who said to sit him? I didn't. I'm playing him.

I'm starting him as well. I live in Chicago and see the Bears a lot. They're the type of defense normally can give up yards, but stop the offense in some way or another prior to the offense reaching the endzone. KC doesn't have a great offense (a bad one, actually), but if used right it will power run and involve a good TE, which are the two ways to attack the Bears. I think LJ gets 100 combined yards, and he or Gonzo get the TD if there is one. We'll see, but I'd rather start him than Julius Jones or a WR...

 

[largentslovechild]

Ok to buy low on LJ, just don't expect too much.

To do that, it means an owner is willing to sell low. And that's not possible.

 

[LHUCKS]

Ok to buy low on LJ, just don't expect too much.

To do that, it means an owner is willing to sell low. And that's not possible.

Not right now, but LJ owners will start loosening up with a few more bad weeks.