Tatum Bell -- sell quickly, or possible buy low candidate now? (1 Viewer)

[Lambert]

FBG maxim - every player has value ... the question is what that value is right now. The problem is that, in statistical terms, the range of likely outcomes for Tatum is so much wider than for most players. Mike Bell could take over and never look back, leaving Tatum completely worthless ... on the other hand, if Tatum gets healthy and keeps the #1 RB slot he seemed to have going into last week's game for the entire season, he could definitely finish as a top-5 RB for the 2nd half of the season.

On the other end of the spectrum, you have players like Edge or Reuben Droughns who, absent some freak unexpected injury, have a much shorter distance between their likely floor and likely ceiling. The chances of Edge or Reuben being a top-5 RB for the 2nd half of the season are pretty slim, but the chances of them becoming totally worthless in the 2nd half are also pretty slim.

Here's the question --

(1) Given the huge upside AND downside of Tatum right now, what's his value to you going forward? What RBs do you put at a similar value -- i.e., what would you give for him, or what would it take for you to give him up if you had him?

(2) Would you be more likely to try to buy him low now if you don't have him, or dump him for whatever you can get if you did have him?

 

[Macdaddy_2004]

I'm trying to buy - I'm weak at RB and the risk is worth it

 

[Rushmore]

FBG maxim - every player has value ... the question is what that value is right now. The problem is that, in statistical terms, the range of likely outcomes for Tatum is so much wider than for most players. Mike Bell could take over and never look back, leaving Tatum completely worthless ... on the other hand, if Tatum gets healthy and keeps the #1 RB slot he seemed to have going into last week's game for the entire season, he could definitely finish as a top-5 RB for the 2nd half of the season.On the other end of the spectrum, you have players like Edge or Reuben Droughns who, absent some freak unexpected injury, have a much shorter distance between their likely floor and likely ceiling. The chances of Edge or Reuben being a top-5 RB for the 2nd half of the season are pretty slim, but the chances of them becoming totally worthless in the 2nd half are also pretty slim.Here's the question -- (1) Given the huge upside AND downside of Tatum right now, what's his value to you going forward? What RBs do you put at a similar value -- i.e., what would you give for him, or what would it take for you to give him up if you had him?(2) Would you be more likely to try to buy him low now if you don't have him, or dump him for whatever you can get if you did have him?

A couple of threads down is a post that I started that is asking this question. I'm wondering the same thing. This turf-toe injury freaks me out. I was offered Reggie Bush straight up in a .5/rec. redraft league and am wondering if I should take it just to get "something" for him before it's too late.

 

[Lambert]

FBG maxim - every player has value ... the question is what that value is right now. The problem is that, in statistical terms, the range of likely outcomes for Tatum is so much wider than for most players. Mike Bell could take over and never look back, leaving Tatum completely worthless ... on the other hand, if Tatum gets healthy and keeps the #1 RB slot he seemed to have going into last week's game for the entire season, he could definitely finish as a top-5 RB for the 2nd half of the season.On the other end of the spectrum, you have players like Edge or Reuben Droughns who, absent some freak unexpected injury, have a much shorter distance between their likely floor and likely ceiling. The chances of Edge or Reuben being a top-5 RB for the 2nd half of the season are pretty slim, but the chances of them becoming totally worthless in the 2nd half are also pretty slim.Here's the question -- (1) Given the huge upside AND downside of Tatum right now, what's his value to you going forward? What RBs do you put at a similar value -- i.e., what would you give for him, or what would it take for you to give him up if you had him?(2) Would you be more likely to try to buy him low now if you don't have him, or dump him for whatever you can get if you did have him?

A couple of threads down is a post that I started that is asking this question. I'm wondering the same thing. This turf-toe injury freaks me out. I was offered Reggie Bush straight up in a .5/rec. redraft league and am wondering if I should take it just to get "something" for him before it's too late.

Sorry, didn't see your thread ... I'm actually looking at the possibility from the other side. I'm thinking if I have the depth at RB such that if I trade for Tatum and he turns out to be a total bust, I'm not dead in the water. On the other hand, if he hits his ceiling, it could significantly improve my chances of winning my league.

 

[EnterSandman]

LAST week was the week to sell at close to full value, I traded him and Colston for SA.

 

[massraider]

Here's the question -- (1) Given the huge upside AND downside of Tatum right now, what's his value to you going forward? What RBs do you put at a similar value -- i.e., what would you give for him, or what would it take for you to give him up if you had him?

I don't think his value has changed that much. I never thought he was going to be an iron man, and think he's capable of monster games. Perhaps he's not a week in and week out consistent guy, but I'll take the .250 hitter that has a monster game every once in a while as my #2. For most people he's a #2, maybe #3. Monster games from your #2 is great, that's one way to win your championship. It's been my experience that while consistency and depth is nice, one or two studs can win the whole thing. i'd rather take the gamble on big games.

(2) Would you be more likely to try to buy him low now if you don't have him, or dump him for whatever you can get if you did have him?

I have Mike Bell in 1 league, I don't own Tatum at all. But I'd be trying to buy him if I could. But I doubt many Tatum owners are selling. The Denver RB is a gold mine, and most owners want some sort of a claim. that's why Ced Cobbs is still on dynasty rosters (and he should be).

 

[Rushmore]

FBG maxim - every player has value ... the question is what that value is right now. The problem is that, in statistical terms, the range of likely outcomes for Tatum is so much wider than for most players. Mike Bell could take over and never look back, leaving Tatum completely worthless ... on the other hand, if Tatum gets healthy and keeps the #1 RB slot he seemed to have going into last week's game for the entire season, he could definitely finish as a top-5 RB for the 2nd half of the season.On the other end of the spectrum, you have players like Edge or Reuben Droughns who, absent some freak unexpected injury, have a much shorter distance between their likely floor and likely ceiling. The chances of Edge or Reuben being a top-5 RB for the 2nd half of the season are pretty slim, but the chances of them becoming totally worthless in the 2nd half are also pretty slim.Here's the question -- (1) Given the huge upside AND downside of Tatum right now, what's his value to you going forward? What RBs do you put at a similar value -- i.e., what would you give for him, or what would it take for you to give him up if you had him?(2) Would you be more likely to try to buy him low now if you don't have him, or dump him for whatever you can get if you did have him?

A couple of threads down is a post that I started that is asking this question. I'm wondering the same thing. This turf-toe injury freaks me out. I was offered Reggie Bush straight up in a .5/rec. redraft league and am wondering if I should take it just to get "something" for him before it's too late.

Sorry, didn't see your thread ... I'm actually looking at the possibility from the other side. I'm thinking if I have the depth at RB such that if I trade for Tatum and he turns out to be a total bust, I'm not dead in the water. On the other hand, if he hits his ceiling, it could significantly improve my chances of winning my league.

No prob. I just welcome the discussion on it. As much as everyone likes to post about Tatum Bell on here, there sure isn't a lot of it going on now. I'd like to know more about turf toe injuries and if there are different grades of these injuries etc. Every time I've seen turf toe injuries, they have been very bad news for the athlete who gets it. I was just watching the Broncos/Colts on replay and Mike looked good, although it was vs. a pourous D.

 

[Lambert]

FBG maxim - every player has value ... the question is what that value is right now. The problem is that, in statistical terms, the range of likely outcomes for Tatum is so much wider than for most players. Mike Bell could take over and never look back, leaving Tatum completely worthless ... on the other hand, if Tatum gets healthy and keeps the #1 RB slot he seemed to have going into last week's game for the entire season, he could definitely finish as a top-5 RB for the 2nd half of the season.On the other end of the spectrum, you have players like Edge or Reuben Droughns who, absent some freak unexpected injury, have a much shorter distance between their likely floor and likely ceiling. The chances of Edge or Reuben being a top-5 RB for the 2nd half of the season are pretty slim, but the chances of them becoming totally worthless in the 2nd half are also pretty slim.Here's the question -- (1) Given the huge upside AND downside of Tatum right now, what's his value to you going forward? What RBs do you put at a similar value -- i.e., what would you give for him, or what would it take for you to give him up if you had him?(2) Would you be more likely to try to buy him low now if you don't have him, or dump him for whatever you can get if you did have him?

A couple of threads down is a post that I started that is asking this question. I'm wondering the same thing. This turf-toe injury freaks me out. I was offered Reggie Bush straight up in a .5/rec. redraft league and am wondering if I should take it just to get "something" for him before it's too late.

Sorry, didn't see your thread ... I'm actually looking at the possibility from the other side. I'm thinking if I have the depth at RB such that if I trade for Tatum and he turns out to be a total bust, I'm not dead in the water. On the other hand, if he hits his ceiling, it could significantly improve my chances of winning my league.

No prob. I just welcome the discussion on it. As much as everyone likes to post about Tatum Bell on here, there sure isn't a lot of it going on now. I'd like to know more about turf toe injuries and if there are different grades of these injuries etc. Every time I've seen turf toe injuries, they have been very bad news for the athlete who gets it. I was just watching the Broncos/Colts on replay and Mike looked good, although it was vs. a pourous D.

So are you inclined to take Bush for Tatum, straight up? If not, what would you take for Tatum right now?