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I rarely chime in on DEN running back threads, but I do think Bell is extremely undervalued heading into the '06 season. IMO, Shanahan has called Bell a 5-10 carry RB simply as a motivational ploy. If I simply look at the ABC's of the Bell's situation, I find it difficult to value him him so low this year...* In '05, Bell had 921 yards and 8 TD's sharing carries primarily with Mike Anderson.
I believe it was more of an emphasis of his opinion... it's underlined, not link.As for me .... I won't touch a Denver RB until after my initial starting skill players are covered (7th or 8th round). But, I don't want to tied up 3 roster spots just to get 1 starter! And if I have to guess who it is each week, forget it!!
I disagree. I don't think that Bell is incapable of getting 20 carries a game, I just think that he won't get the opportunity in Denver. I would not be surprised to see him wind up in another city and rush for 1300+ yards at some other point in his career. I think he's a very good buy-low candidate in Dynasty.
I have no problem ranking Bell comparable to Parker and Taylor. I don't like ranking him above Droughns, though, since Droughns is now officially a Proven Commodity . I also think that when Bell's rookie contract expires and he hits free agency, his value will definitely increase.
Last year, as a "motivational ploy", Shanahan named Mike Anderson the starter and dropped Darius Watts to the fifth string. The result? Mike Anderson was the starter for the whole season, and Darius Watts was a game-day inactive in all but 2 games (iirc).The lesson? Mike Shanahan doesn't do "motivational ploys".
...but on the flip-side of the coin, Shanahan had also pimped players like David Terrell and Cecil Sapp to the tune of 0 yards receiving and 21 yards rushing last year.Shanahan is the master of curve ball. I believe the people who are banking on Dayne's carries leaping from 53 last year to nearly 300 this year (...adding Mike Anderson's 239 carries to Dayne's 53) will be sorely disappointed.
Let's call a spade a spade here...Only 15% of Bell's carries (25 vs 148) were in the "12+" range. I would much rather base Bell's skills on his 6.1 average on 148 carries, as opposed to his 2.6 average on 25 measily carries.
Great post. Bell has so few carries in this range, that it's just not meaningful. Why should the "Bell can't carry the load" crowd get to do all the bad math? Where are the people pointing out that:Bell's YPC in 2004 shows the reverse trend: higher in 11+ carries than in carries 1-10.Or that Bell's YPC in 16+ carries last year was 4.7and then saying, Wow that guy can handle the load!
Shanahan never pimped Terrell or Sapp. He says he likes their work ethic and he thinks they could produce if they were in a certain role, but he has never once overestimated or exaggerated their role with the team. I also don't think anyone's banking on Dayne getting 300 carries this year (I have him estimated to about 270, which is what Anderson would have gotten if he hadn't missed weeks 1 and 17).I agree that Tatum Bell could easily have value under the right circumstances, I just don't think those circumstances are very likely. I also *strongly* disagree with the description of Shanahan as "the master of curve ball". If anything, he's a very straight shooter. He has always been very honest with a player's role with the team. Jeff Legwold, the #1 Broncos Insider, has said the exact same thing- believe what Shanny tells you.
Dayne's 8 games carrying the ball last year...First 4 = 20 carries for 151 yards (7.55 yrds/carry)
That could be said for any Denver RB. Certainly, a fair amount of their success (certainly in terms of TDs and YPC) is a function of the offense. We have seen that with Portis and Droughns. But, Bell is a very explosive player, IMO. One of the few backs in the league that can go the distance on any play. Very talented. Very athletic. He's a good one cut and go north and south with speed kind of runner and can also turn the corner. But, he has to show that he can be a guy that moves the chains more consistently to be a full time RB. I think he still really needs to be given a chance to show that he can or cannot do that in Denver.As for other team's interest, I think just by way of the fact that he can be a playmaker for you, a guy than can add a dimension to your running game that most teams do not have, other teams would be interested in giving him a look, if Denver were to ever quit on him or he decide to try his hand elsewhere. So, I think there definately would be some interest, if he were to become available.
Taylor a top 10 stud?
Rumor up here in the northland is that he couldn't put down the oreos and climb off the couch long enough to keep the starting job that he was signed to fill. I would not be surprised to see another year of RBBC (although in snazzy new uni's).
Again, I disagree. Lots of backs have had horsies on their helmets, but only one of them has posted a better ypc in ANY season than Bell has in the last two. I think on a team that values boom-or-bust RBs very highly, Bell is a 1200+ yard rusher. And I'm usually one of the more outspoken Bell critics on the board, at least in terms of the expectations that he's going to be the featured back in Denver.
