Tatum's Bell tolls in 2006 (1 Viewer)

[strattkatt]

For all the sudden Mike Bell marks - Here's a reminder of what you may have forgot. (Warning: Soundtrack is uncensored, which is a shame because the music goes well with the highlights. Turn the volume down if the kids are around.)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n5zFFYxuMRM

I'll be watching camp and reading Cecil's reports, but Mike has a long way to go to convince me he can do this to NFL defenses.

 

[Otis]

Sweet. I had a ton to get off my chest regarding this Denver running back situation and nowhere to vent it.

Thanks.

 

[PatsWillWin]

I understand that I'm not contributing anything, but I'm getting tired of the "Bell Tolls" for Tatum and Mike Bell lately.

 

[Otis]

I understand that I'm not contributing anything, but I'm getting tired of the "Bell Tolls" for Tatum and Mike Bell lately.

O RLY?

 

[Keys Myaths]

Sweet. I had a ton to get off my chest regarding this Denver running back situation and nowhere to vent it.Thanks.

 

[broncofan13000]

:honda:

Not really related to camp, but saw this over on Broncosfreak board courtesy of Denver27OG

Tatum Bell Highlight Package

He's fun to watch

edit to add: watching the blocking is almost as good as his runs.

edit: oops quoted wrong highlights...

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Good info in here.

 

[fossdboss]

For all the sudden Mike Bell marks - Here's a reminder of what you may have forgot. (Warning: Soundtrack is uncensored, which is a shame because the music goes well with the highlights. Turn the volume down if the kids are around.)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n5zFFYxuMRM

I'll be watching camp and reading Cecil's reports, but Mike has a long way to go to convince me he can do this to NFL defenses.

There are 20 runs and one reception in this highlight reel (not counting replays from different angles.) The total yardage total of those 20 runs is ~ 496 yards. That is more than half of Tatum's rushing yards last year. His YPC on the other 153 carries he had last year drops to around 2.78 if you remove these runs. He either breaks a big one or gets nada.I think it is obvious from this video what a talent Tatum is, but I also demonstrates why Shanahan continues to be disenchanted with TBell. He doesn’t want to make an “all or nothing” (my words not his) type back his starter. He wants a guy who can consistently move the chains and stay healthy which TBell has not shown he can do.

I am not saying that MBell is definitely the answer, just that I see this video as evidence for why TBell will not be the full-time starter.

 

[Ron_Mexico]

There are 20 runs and one reception in this highlight reel (not counting replays from different angles.) The total yardage total of those 20 runs is ~ 496 yards. That is more than half of Tatum's rushing yards last year. His YPC on the other 153 carries he had last year drops to around 2.78 if you remove these runs. He either breaks a big one or gets nada.I think it is obvious from this video what a talent Tatum is, but I also demonstrates why Shanahan continues to be disenchanted with TBell. He doesn’t want to make an “all or nothing” (my words not his) type back his starter. He wants a guy who can consistently move the chains and stay healthy which TBell has not shown he can do. I am not saying that MBell is definitely the answer, just that I see this video as evidence for why TBell will not be the full-time starter.

exactly.

 

[Lightning Fast Whip]

Tatum is being way under rated in fantasy right now. If my draft last night was any indication this Mike Bell stuff has allowed Tatum to slip 20 places lower in drafts. Considering in limited role he was good for almost 1000 yards and 8 TDs what is the downside? Skeletor better be careful or he'll have Tatum joining Lelie in doing the "Kennison" this year...and there are teams who would give up a 3rd or 4th rounder for Tatum right about now.

 

[Borat]

Is it just me, or was that, like, 6 different rushing attempts from 37 different angles?

Not to mention there were a couple of ~5 yard runs in there. I thought this was supposed to be a highlight reel?

Also, it's irrelevant to any discussion of Bell as a player, but what a poor selection for the soundtrack. Hasn't this guy complained about playing time on several occassions?

 

[Borat]

There are 20 runs and one reception in this highlight reel (not counting replays from different angles.) The total yardage total of those 20 runs is ~ 496 yards. That is more than half of Tatum's rushing yards last year. His YPC on the other 153 carries he had last year drops to around 2.78 if you remove these runs. He either breaks a big one or gets nada.I think it is obvious from this video what a talent Tatum is, but I also demonstrates why Shanahan continues to be disenchanted with TBell. He doesn’t want to make an “all or nothing” (my words not his) type back his starter. He wants a guy who can consistently move the chains and stay healthy which TBell has not shown he can do. I am not saying that MBell is definitely the answer, just that I see this video as evidence for why TBell will not be the full-time starter.

Good analysis. There's a reason this guy can't even beat out Ron Dayne.

 

[Lightning Fast Whip]

If DD can't get healthy does anyone think Kubiak might like a guy who knows the Denver system?

 

[strattkatt]

For all the sudden Mike Bell marks - Here's a reminder of what you may have forgot. (Warning: Soundtrack is uncensored, which is a shame because the music goes well with the highlights. Turn the volume down if the kids are around.)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n5zFFYxuMRM

I'll be watching camp and reading Cecil's reports, but Mike has a long way to go to convince me he can do this to NFL defenses.

There are 20 runs and one reception in this highlight reel (not counting replays from different angles.) The total yardage total of those 20 runs is ~ 496 yards. That is more than half of Tatum's rushing yards last year. His YPC on the other 153 carries he had last year drops to around 2.78 if you remove these runs. He either breaks a big one or gets nada.I think it is obvious from this video what a talent Tatum is, but I also demonstrates why Shanahan continues to be disenchanted with TBell. He doesn’t want to make an “all or nothing” (my words not his) type back his starter. He wants a guy who can consistently move the chains and stay healthy which TBell has not shown he can do.

I am not saying that MBell is definitely the answer, just that I see this video as evidence for why TBell will not be the full-time starter.

This type of dialogue is what I was hoping for..I'm still in "evaluate" mode on Tatum and will definitely include this view as I fine tune my opinion. I also agree, however, with LFW that he is still undervalued - just maybe not as much as I might've been thinking.

 

[fossdboss]

For all the sudden Mike Bell marks - Here's a reminder of what you may have forgot. (Warning: Soundtrack is uncensored, which is a shame because the music goes well with the highlights. Turn the volume down if the kids are around.)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n5zFFYxuMRM

I'll be watching camp and reading Cecil's reports, but Mike has a long way to go to convince me he can do this to NFL defenses.

There are 20 runs and one reception in this highlight reel (not counting replays from different angles.) The total yardage total of those 20 runs is ~ 496 yards. That is more than half of Tatum's rushing yards last year. His YPC on the other 153 carries he had last year drops to around 2.78 if you remove these runs. He either breaks a big one or gets nada.I think it is obvious from this video what a talent Tatum is, but I also demonstrates why Shanahan continues to be disenchanted with TBell. He doesn’t want to make an “all or nothing” (my words not his) type back his starter. He wants a guy who can consistently move the chains and stay healthy which TBell has not shown he can do.

I am not saying that MBell is definitely the answer, just that I see this video as evidence for why TBell will not be the full-time starter.

This type of dialogue is what I was hoping for..I'm still in "evaluate" mode on Tatum and will definitely include this view as I fine tune my opinion. I also agree, however, with LFW that he is still undervalued - just maybe not as much as I might've been thinking.

I will concede that he may be undervalued given all the MBell hype. But he is still a guy that I will never draft for the simple reason that I don't want to be chewing Tums all day when he has games of 7 carries for 21 yards.

 

[Battles]

Damn. The Denver line can make some BIG holes. Glad someone finally made a video showing the OL's good work.

 

[RabidRabbit]

I hate the *%&$#$ Bell Toll crap too.

 

[SSOG]

For all the sudden Mike Bell marks - Here's a reminder of what you may have forgot. (Warning: Soundtrack is uncensored, which is a shame because the music goes well with the highlights. Turn the volume down if the kids are around.)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n5zFFYxuMRM

I'll be watching camp and reading Cecil's reports, but Mike has a long way to go to convince me he can do this to NFL defenses.

I have to say, that video clearly illustrates one of Bell's biggest flaws. Look how many of those "highlight" runs were plays where he just bounced it outside and beat the defense to the corner. Denver's bread-and-butter running plays are between the tackles.

 

[MLBrandow]

Tatum is being way under rated in fantasy right now. If my draft last night was any indication this Mike Bell stuff has allowed Tatum to slip 20 places lower in drafts. Considering in limited role he was good for almost 1000 yards and 8 TDs what is the downside? Skeletor better be careful or he'll have Tatum joining Lelie in doing the "Kennison" this year...and there are teams who would give up a 3rd or 4th rounder for Tatum right about now.

No there aren't, or he'd be long gone.Tatum Bell's carry splits over 2 years:

1-5: 108/568/3TD (5.3avg)

6-10: 80/520/5TD (6.5avg)

11+: 60/229/3TD, FL (3.8avg)

INS: 199/860/8TD, 3FUM, FL (4.3avg)

OUT: 49/457/3TD (9.3avg)

G1-8: 80/562/5TD (7.0avg)

G9-16: 93/359/3TD, FL (3.9avg)

This guy clearly is a 3rd down back, and he also is the opposite of what the Denver system needs.

Talent has never been his problem. Endurance has.

 

[Amishboy]

For all the sudden Mike Bell marks - Here's a reminder of what you may have forgot. (Warning: Soundtrack is uncensored, which is a shame because the music goes well with the highlights. Turn the volume down if the kids are around.)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n5zFFYxuMRM

I'll be watching camp and reading Cecil's reports, but Mike has a long way to go to convince me he can do this to NFL defenses.

There are 20 runs and one reception in this highlight reel (not counting replays from different angles.) The total yardage total of those 20 runs is ~ 496 yards. That is more than half of Tatum's rushing yards last year. His YPC on the other 153 carries he had last year drops to around 2.78 if you remove these runs. He either breaks a big one or gets nada.I think it is obvious from this video what a talent Tatum is, but I also demonstrates why Shanahan continues to be disenchanted with TBell. He doesn’t want to make an “all or nothing” (my words not his) type back his starter. He wants a guy who can consistently move the chains and stay healthy which TBell has not shown he can do.

I am not saying that MBell is definitely the answer, just that I see this video as evidence for why TBell will not be the full-time starter.

Not to mention his numerous broken tackles. The guy goes down with a stiff breeze. Talented - Undoubtedly

Starting RB - NO

 

[SSOG]

Tatum is being way under rated in fantasy right now. If my draft last night was any indication this Mike Bell stuff has allowed Tatum to slip 20 places lower in drafts. Considering in limited role he was good for almost 1000 yards and 8 TDs what is the downside? Skeletor better be careful or he'll have Tatum joining Lelie in doing the "Kennison" this year...and there are teams who would give up a 3rd or 4th rounder for Tatum right about now.

No there aren't, or he'd be long gone.Tatum Bell's carry splits over 2 years:

1-5: 108/568/3TD (5.3avg)

6-10: 80/520/5TD (6.5avg)

11+: 60/229/3TD, FL (3.8avg)

INS: 199/860/8TD, 3FUM, FL (4.3avg)

OUT: 49/457/3TD (9.3avg)

G1-8: 80/562/5TD (7.0avg)

G9-16: 93/359/3TD, FL (3.9avg)

This guy clearly is a 3rd down back, and he also is the opposite of what the Denver system needs.

Last time- Tatum Bell *IS NOT A THIRD DOWN BACK*. He is a Change of Pace back. He gets work on first, second, *AND* third downs. In fact, if anything, he's probably the worst 3rd-down back on the team. He has the worst hands and the worst blocking, and 3rd-down is always a passing down if there are 3+ yards to go- meaning the ideal 3rd down back is a great blocker and receiving threat. Bell is neither.Anyway, even if someone was willing to spend a 3rd rounder for Bell (and I truly think someone would be), Denver wouldn't do it. Bell is a contributer, someone who is actively contributing to their chance to win on a more or less weekly basis. He's not a special teams performer here. He actively won AT LEAST one game for Denver last year. Why would Denver trade that- trade a guy with that sort of home-run threat on a 10-carry average- for a third rounder? I'd guess that well under half of all third round RBs have as much of an impact on their team as Tatum Bell has had.

Tatum Bell is a valuable commodity... in his Change of Pace role. If you put him in a role for which he is not suited, then he ceases to become a valuable commodity. If you refuse to use him, then he ceases to become a valuable commodity. As it currently stands, though, Bell is definitely a valuable commodity, and probably one of the 20 most important performers on the team.

 

[moleculo]

Tatum is being way under rated in fantasy right now. If my draft last night was any indication this Mike Bell stuff has allowed Tatum to slip 20 places lower in drafts. Considering in limited role he was good for almost 1000 yards and 8 TDs what is the downside? Skeletor better be careful or he'll have Tatum joining Lelie in doing the "Kennison" this year...and there are teams who would give up a 3rd or 4th rounder for Tatum right about now.

No there aren't, or he'd be long gone.Tatum Bell's carry splits over 2 years:

1-5: 108/568/3TD (5.3avg)

6-10: 80/520/5TD (6.5avg)

11+: 60/229/3TD, FL (3.8avg)

INS: 199/860/8TD, 3FUM, FL (4.3avg)

OUT: 49/457/3TD (9.3avg)

G1-8: 80/562/5TD (7.0avg)

G9-16: 93/359/3TD, FL (3.9avg)

This guy clearly is a 3rd down back, and he also is the opposite of what the Denver system needs.

Last time- Tatum Bell *IS NOT A THIRD DOWN BACK*. He is a Change of Pace back. He gets work on first, second, *AND* third downs. In fact, if anything, he's probably the worst 3rd-down back on the team. He has the worst hands and the worst blocking, and 3rd-down is always a passing down if there are 3+ yards to go- meaning the ideal 3rd down back is a great blocker and receiving threat. Bell is neither.Anyway, even if someone was willing to spend a 3rd rounder for Bell (and I truly think someone would be), Denver wouldn't do it. Bell is a contributer, someone who is actively contributing to their chance to win on a more or less weekly basis. He's not a special teams performer here. He actively won AT LEAST one game for Denver last year. Why would Denver trade that- trade a guy with that sort of home-run threat on a 10-carry average- for a third rounder? I'd guess that well under half of all third round RBs have as much of an impact on their team as Tatum Bell has had.

Tatum Bell is a valuable commodity... in his Change of Pace role. If you put him in a role for which he is not suited, then he ceases to become a valuable commodity. If you refuse to use him, then he ceases to become a valuable commodity. As it currently stands, though, Bell is definitely a valuable commodity, and probably one of the 20 most important performers on the team.

SSoG is on the money (as usual). Here's what I had to say about Tatum in the spotlight thread:

... It is even possible that the other half of RBBC is not currently on the Denver roster.

One thing I have noticed about Bell which could be indicative of his role on the team is 3rd down production. in 2005, he had 30 rushes for 14 first downs and 3 TD's, 8 receiving targets for only three receptions and a single first down. not quite 44% conversion ratio. In 2004, Bell had a conversion rate of 37%. Anderson, on the other hand, had a 2005 conversion ratio of 69%, Droughns in 2004 was 60%, Portis in 2003 was only 48%, but Portis in 2002 was 56%. I distinctly remember against the Giants last year - Bell had three separate receiving targets on 3rd down - 1 he caught and was just short of the first down, and two dropped passes in the open field.

...

Bell is NOT a viable 3rd down back.

 

[fornov]

Here are my thoughts (not that anyone asked me):

1. Yes he is a "all or nothing" type back, but that can be OK - ask Barry Sanders.

2. No, I do not think Bell is as good as Sanders, but he is the same type of RB.

3. Bell is way underrated in fantasy circles right now. As Lightning pointed out, he was RB22 last year as his own team's RB2. Why can't he do that again?

4. I've always thought a Running Back's most important skill is Running. No one is questioning this in Bell. He can learn patience, cutbacks, receiving, blocking, etc. No one can teach a guy how to get to the corner.

5. Disagree with Borat - Most of those runs were replayed once. There were some 5 (or fewer) yard runs, but those were all TD runs.

6. Agree with Borat - I hate that song.

7. The "Bell Tolls" line sucks.

8. The Denver OL is amazing.

9. Some of those runs show us what announcers are talking about when they say someone has an "extra gear."

10. Amishboy - I see your logo, and no offense, but he sure did torch the Redskins last year. I'm surprised you weren't impressed with him.

 

[Marc Levin]

Sweet. I had a ton to get off my chest regarding this Denver running back situation and nowhere to vent it.Thanks.

I just spewed beer on my keyboard leaughinh at this one.In seriousness, Cecil has always acknowledged how great Bell is when he gets to the outside - hecommented on how Bel looks to poip everything to the outside rather than cutting back. The reason Mike Bell i sstarting is that he is currently the best cutback runner on the team - that cut between th etackles is the Brocos' bread and butter.No doubt that when Bell gets to the corner first, he is INCREDIBLE (caps on that fully intended). It's when he fails to do what he is supposed to do between the tackles on the 15 or so carries per game that the team runs there - that is what cost him the starting job the last two years.

 

[Marc Levin]

Considering in limited role he was good for almost 1000 yards and 8 TDs what is the downside?

because those numbers were sporadic - not consistent - which makes it hard to invest in his current 4th rounfd ADP.You must get MBell for good value, and, probably after this Friday night's game, MBell's ADP will jump into the 6th round - or, actually, his draft position in YOUR (you being anyone) draft will probably rise to one round after whenever TBell is selected.

 

[Keys Myaths]

Sweet. I had a ton to get off my chest regarding this Denver running back situation and nowhere to vent it.

Thanks.

I just spewed beer on my keyboard leaughinh at this one.

Seems your keys got stuck, ML.

 

[Marc Levin]

There are 20 runs and one reception in this highlight reel (not counting replays from different angles.) The total yardage total of those 20 runs is ~ 496 yards. That is more than half of Tatum's rushing yards last year. His YPC on the other 153 carries he had last year drops to around 2.78 if you remove these runs. He either breaks a big one or gets nada.I think it is obvious from this video what a talent Tatum is, but I also demonstrates why Shanahan continues to be disenchanted with TBell. He doesn’t want to make an “all or nothing” (my words not his) type back his starter. He wants a guy who can consistently move the chains and stay healthy which TBell has not shown he can do. I am not saying that MBell is definitely the answer, just that I see this video as evidence for why TBell will not be the full-time starter.

Good analysis. There's a reason this guy can't even beat out Ron Dayne.

he won't "beat out" anyone if Mike Shanahan is firmly convinced he needs to stay around 10-12 touches per game. if Shannie was going to replace Dayne (which he did) wouldn't the natural selection to "see" how he can handle it be TBell? Instead, he took a big guy who is tough and can take the pounding and stay fresh (read: Mike Anderson). MBell is more a Mike Anderson clone than RDayne - Dayne sux.

 

[Marc Levin]

Sweet. I had a ton to get off my chest regarding this Denver running back situation and nowhere to vent it.

Thanks.

I just spewed beer on my keyboard leaughinh at this one.

Seems your keys got stuck, ML.

will do that to you.

 

[fornov]

Considering in limited role he was good for almost 1000 yards and 8 TDs what is the downside?

because those numbers were sporadic - not consistent - which makes it hard to invest in his current 4th rounfd ADP.You must get MBell for good value, and, probably after this Friday night's game, MBell's ADP will jump into the 6th round - or, actually, his draft position in YOUR (you being anyone) draft will probably rise to one round after whenever TBell is selected.

I've been in a discussion on a different thread about consistency. To make a long story short, Doug Drinen has studied players' consistency from one week to the next, and found that it is not predictive of his future seasons' levels of consistency. A player may be a steady scorer one season, and then sporadic the next with no way to predict it (and vice versa). In other words, consistency is not consistent.I know that by watching what Bell does, we feel like he is an "all or nothing" guy, but do we really have evidence to suggest he will remain that way? I think we do not.

 

[Marc Levin]

Considering in limited role he was good for almost 1000 yards and 8 TDs what is the downside?

because those numbers were sporadic - not consistent - which makes it hard to invest in his current 4th rounfd ADP.You must get MBell for good value, and, probably after this Friday night's game, MBell's ADP will jump into the 6th round - or, actually, his draft position in YOUR (you being anyone) draft will probably rise to one round after whenever TBell is selected.

I've been in a discussion on a different thread about consistency. To make a long story short, Doug Drinen has studied players' consistency from one week to the next, and found that it is not predictive of his future seasons' levels of consistency. A player may be a steady scorer one season, and then sporadic the next with no way to predict it (and vice versa). In other words, consistency is not consistent.I know that by watching what Bell does, we feel like he is an "all or nothing" guy, but do we really have evidence to suggest he will remain that way? I think we do not.

Yeah - that study was for players who were starters with a lot of opp., yet still inconsistent fantasy scorers. Sporadic does not = inconsistent. "Sporadic" socring is a result of inconsostent OPPORTUNITIES - not inconsistent PRODUCTION.I have NO QUESTION in my mind that if TBell were given 20 touches a game, he'd be a fantasy superstar - the QUESTION is whether he gets more than 12 touches a game.

We can expect a LOT of inconsistency - in fact, we can PREDICT a lot of inconsistency - from TBell if he is not the starter.

 

[SSOG]

Considering in limited role he was good for almost 1000 yards and 8 TDs what is the downside?

because those numbers were sporadic - not consistent - which makes it hard to invest in his current 4th rounfd ADP.You must get MBell for good value, and, probably after this Friday night's game, MBell's ADP will jump into the 6th round - or, actually, his draft position in YOUR (you being anyone) draft will probably rise to one round after whenever TBell is selected.

I've been in a discussion on a different thread about consistency. To make a long story short, Doug Drinen has studied players' consistency from one week to the next, and found that it is not predictive of his future seasons' levels of consistency. A player may be a steady scorer one season, and then sporadic the next with no way to predict it (and vice versa). In other words, consistency is not consistent.I know that by watching what Bell does, we feel like he is an "all or nothing" guy, but do we really have evidence to suggest he will remain that way? I think we do not.

Okay, well, let's put it this way. I know that Tatum Bell will get about 12 carries a game. An RB who gets 20 carries @ 4 ypc finishes with 80 carries. For Bell to match that, he'd need to average 6.67 yards per carry. I suppose we can simplify this "Bell is inconsistant" arguement to "Bell is a quality start when he gets 6.67+ ypc, and a poor fantasy start when he gets 5 or fewer ypc". Now, good luck predicting which games Bell will go off for 6.67+ yards per carry, because there's really no rhyme or reason to it.That's the big difference between Bell and the players in Drinen's study. Bell's inconsistancy has to do with his lack of opportunity. If he was getting 20 carries a game, then I might buy an arguement that he could become less inconsistant... but as long as he's getting 12 carries a game, he's going to be DREADFULLY inconsistant. He's only going to hold value in games where he scores a TD or games where he averages 7 or more yards per carry. I mean, you might as well start Brandon Jacobs and hope for a TD plunge.

Edit: beaten by Levin. Even when he's a little sloshed he's quick on the reply. Way to go Levin!

 

[fornov]

Considering in limited role he was good for almost 1000 yards and 8 TDs what is the downside?

because those numbers were sporadic - not consistent - which makes it hard to invest in his current 4th rounfd ADP.You must get MBell for good value, and, probably after this Friday night's game, MBell's ADP will jump into the 6th round - or, actually, his draft position in YOUR (you being anyone) draft will probably rise to one round after whenever TBell is selected.

I've been in a discussion on a different thread about consistency. To make a long story short, Doug Drinen has studied players' consistency from one week to the next, and found that it is not predictive of his future seasons' levels of consistency. A player may be a steady scorer one season, and then sporadic the next with no way to predict it (and vice versa). In other words, consistency is not consistent.I know that by watching what Bell does, we feel like he is an "all or nothing" guy, but do we really have evidence to suggest he will remain that way? I think we do not.

Yeah - that study was for players who were starters with a lot of opp., yet still inconsistent fantasy scorers. Sporadic does not = inconsistent. "Sporadic" socring is a result of inconsostent OPPORTUNITIES - not inconsistent PRODUCTION.I have NO QUESTION in my mind that if TBell were given 20 touches a game, he'd be a fantasy superstar - the QUESTION is whether he gets more than 12 touches a game.

We can expect a LOT of inconsistency - in fact, we can PREDICT a lot of inconsistency - from TBell if he is not the starter.

Ah, good point. So now we must only decide if he will be the starter. I guess we're back to where we started. :( My only response to that is that most of the time talent wins out, and I agree Dayne SSSUUUUX. Is MBell the answer? Too soon to tell. I still suspect TBell will become the starter, in which case he easily vaults into the RB6-10 range, maybe higher. That's tremendous for a guy being drafted where he is.

 

[fossdboss]

Okay, well, let's put it this way. I know that Tatum Bell will get about 12 carries a game. An RB who gets 20 carries @ 4 ypc finishes with 80 carries. For Bell to match that, he'd need to average 6.67 yards per carry. I suppose we can simplify this "Bell is inconsistant" arguement to "Bell is a quality start when he gets 6.67+ ypc, and a poor fantasy start when he gets 5 or fewer ypc". Now, good luck predicting which games Bell will go off for 6.67+ yards per carry, because there's really no rhyme or reason to it.

That's the big difference between Bell and the players in Drinen's study. Bell's inconsistancy has to do with his lack of opportunity. If he was getting 20 carries a game, then I might buy an arguement that he could become less inconsistant... but as long as he's getting 12 carries a game, he's going to be DREADFULLY inconsistant. He's only going to hold value in games where he scores a TD or games where he averages 7 or more yards per carry. I mean, you might as well start Brandon Jacobs and hope for a TD plunge.

Edit: beaten by Levin. Even when he's a little sloshed he's quick on the reply. Way to go Levin!

Shanahan has had plenty of opportunity to increase that workload and hasn't. It's never gonna happen.

 

[Marc Levin]

Shanahan has had plenty of opportunity to increase that workload and hasn't. It's never gonna happen.

Bite your toungue.There's a good chance he will see different running from both Ron Dayne and MBell in real game situations than he saw in practice. If he gets pissed off at half a yard and a pile of dust, we will se a LOT more TBell - and TBell will be the starter by game 3.If MBell takes the reins and runs through real NFL defenses the way he's run through the Broncos' practice D, you are spot-on.

 

[Marc Levin]

To add to my own comment, Shannie will always play the runner he feels is the best for the team.

If TBell is the best runner on the teasm, he will be the starter.

BTW, SSOG, great post.

(Especially since you said what I said - it's a big circle jerk!)

 

[MLBrandow]

Last time- Tatum Bell *IS NOT A THIRD DOWN BACK*. He is a Change of Pace back. He gets work on first, second, *AND* third downs.

I agree completely. I use the terms "third down back" and "change of pace back" interchangably, which is admittedly a bit of a fault of mine. I'll make a more concerted effort to choose my words more carefully.What my point was is that he's not capable of being a feature back, but he is certainly very good at contributing in his role.

 

[Keys Myaths]

To add to my own comment, Shannie will always play the runner he feels is the best for the team.If TBell is the best runner on the teasm, he will be the starter.

The only one who thinks Tatum Bell doesn't have a shot at the starter's job is Tatum Bell.When TB decides to bear down and quit this bout of feeling sorry for himself, he could have a shot.

 

[MLBrandow]

To add to my own comment, Shannie will always play the runner he feels is the best for the team.If TBell is the best runner on the teasm, he will be the starter.

The only one who thinks Tatum Bell doesn't have a shot at the starter's job is Tatum Bell.When TB decides to bear down and quit this bout of feeling sorry for himself, he could have a shot.

Also, when he has enough stamina to be effective 20-25 times a game for an entire season.

 

[Keys Myaths]

To add to my own comment, Shannie will always play the runner he feels is the best for the team.If TBell is the best runner on the teasm, he will be the starter.

The only one who thinks Tatum Bell doesn't have a shot at the starter's job is Tatum Bell.When TB decides to bear down and quit this bout of feeling sorry for himself, he could have a shot.

Also, when he has enough stamina to be effective 20-25 times a game for an entire season.

Which, I think TB can do, but that's on him as well.

 

[Lightning Fast Whip]

Considering in limited role he was good for almost 1000 yards and 8 TDs what is the downside?

because those numbers were sporadic - not consistent - which makes it hard to invest in his current 4th rounfd ADP.You must get MBell for good value, and, probably after this Friday night's game, MBell's ADP will jump into the 6th round - or, actually, his draft position in YOUR (you being anyone) draft will probably rise to one round after whenever TBell is selected.

I've been in a discussion on a different thread about consistency. To make a long story short, Doug Drinen has studied players' consistency from one week to the next, and found that it is not predictive of his future seasons' levels of consistency. A player may be a steady scorer one season, and then sporadic the next with no way to predict it (and vice versa). In other words, consistency is not consistent.I know that by watching what Bell does, we feel like he is an "all or nothing" guy, but do we really have evidence to suggest he will remain that way? I think we do not.

Okay, well, let's put it this way. I know that Tatum Bell will get about 12 carries a game. An RB who gets 20 carries @ 4 ypc finishes with 80 carries. For Bell to match that, he'd need to average 6.67 yards per carry. I suppose we can simplify this "Bell is inconsistant" arguement to "Bell is a quality start when he gets 6.67+ ypc, and a poor fantasy start when he gets 5 or fewer ypc". Now, good luck predicting which games Bell will go off for 6.67+ yards per carry, because there's really no rhyme or reason to it.That's the big difference between Bell and the players in Drinen's study. Bell's inconsistancy has to do with his lack of opportunity. If he was getting 20 carries a game, then I might buy an arguement that he could become less inconsistant... but as long as he's getting 12 carries a game, he's going to be DREADFULLY inconsistant. He's only going to hold value in games where he scores a TD or games where he averages 7 or more yards per carry. I mean, you might as well start Brandon Jacobs and hope for a TD plunge.

Edit: beaten by Levin. Even when he's a little sloshed he's quick on the reply. Way to go Levin!

Consistency- I think it's being overrated if you are willing to sacrifice Fantasy Production for less variability. In fact I believe volatility could in more cases than not be a benefit to a team. just one example- Owners of equal skill are drafting...one has a Top 3 pick..the other has whatever the worse draft slot is. Assume They are the 2 best managers in the league and always make the playoffs. Does The non top 3 pick guy want both of them to be perfectly consistent? For every point of production you sacrifice for consistency you give up explosiveness to opponents while making them more explosive with higher expected production (the player is going somewhere eventually when an owner doesn't buy the sacrifice is worth the cost.). OK so in a perfectly done draft with even amount of injuries why would the number 1 Team want to accept variability? Because if he doesn't and sacrifices production to avoid it he loses some of his edge/cushion of being the best team and serves up a volatile player who might be able to boost a team past him with an explosive playoff preformance. While for him if he has the higher production player slide to him he gains even more of a production edge and gives less volatility to a future opponent that needs variability to defeat him.So in short the variability is going to go somewhere..isn't worth sacrificing production to avoid it. Increase your expected points per week is a good thing. Teams are close in a good draft league...can't sacrifice production and think it isn't going to hurt because you are more consistent. What if you miss the points wildcard playoff spot because you sacrificed even 1% production? Raise production you'll have more points...raise points and you have even more room for volatility.

 

[Lightning Fast Whip]

oh and 20 carries for 80 yards times 16 games is a 1280 yard RB. Tatum gets drafted much later than the guys expected to put up 1280 yards...when he starts dropping out of Top 50 because of the Mike Bell hype he is a value even at last years numbers. He's not coming off a major surgery, he's not old, he's not out of shape,he's attended off season workouts, he's not missed practices or threatened to hold out or leave camp(yet), he still has at least his last seasons roll. There's value with serious upside potential here folks...the only risk is if he gets angry enough about being snubbed for increased role he does something extreme. Or I suppose if someone really believes Mike Bell is the greatest thing since TD and Tatum wont even get his 12 carries. Aint gonna happen..I'm 97% sure Tatum will get his 10-14 a game if healthy. More if Shanny changes his mind or if traded.

 

[Lightning Fast Whip]

Add he hasn't got too much mileage for the guys who worry about that sort of thing