Tavon Austin - O/U 1,200 yards from scrimmage. (1 Viewer)

[Eminence]

I think there is a lot of discussion about player talent on these boards and not enough about actual production. Most of the times it feels like people are afraid to spit a number out.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I have the under. I have him at 885 receiving yards and 125 rushing yards. 6 total TDs.

 

[cstu]

Should have put the O/U at 1000, which I think he can reach. 70/800 receiving, 20/200 rushing.

 

[Adam Harstad]

I'm a Tavon Austin fan and supporter, but I'm way under on 1200 YFS. If you'd said All-Purpose yards, then I think 1200 would have been a more interesting target (though I think that would be a pretty easy over).

 

[Ack88]

Under.

Not because I doubt Austin's ability. Rather, I doubt Bradford's ability to stay healthy and the backups are poor.

If Austin had consistent QB play, he'd be a legit top 15 wr in a ppr format.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

Rams haven't had a 700 yard WR since 2008, when Torry Holt got just under 800 yards. Yeah good luck with that over. Poll is a landslide.

 

[PhantomJB]

If you look at Austin's last four games they totaled 211 receiving / 135 rushing. That extrapolates out to 844 / 540 = 1,384 total yards. And that was with the mighty Kellen Clemons under center.

I know, I know. Small sample size, big plays, cherry picking, etc. But it was his rookie year and he did finish strong stat-wise and only one game in that span <65 total yards.

It is interesting to see how confident people are in Cordarelle Patterson in comparison. One could argue Patterson's game is similarly dependent on explosive plays but his last four games only extrapolate out to 1,160 for a full season. Yet Patterson's ADP is WR15 and Austin's is WR42.

I'm just saying there's a chance.

 

[George Jefferson Airplane]

Under but I think it'll be closer than people think.

 

[jurb26]

Should have put the O/U at 1000, which I think he can reach. 70/800 receiving, 20/200 rushing.

Agreed,Mathis is a much better O/U. I have him close to those numbers as well in my projections. 90 targets, 54 receptions, 732 yds, 5 TDs

17 carries, 160 yds, 1 TD.

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

I like him quite a bit, but yes definitely under.

 

[Sake-Bombers]

I'm clearly in the minority here, but I think with a year under his belt, reports the game is slowing down for him and the support that Snead and Fisher have for him, that he'll be a focal point of the offense. I voted the over.

Ultimately, situations like this are for me where I learn a lot from these boards. Here's a player where my expectations are pretty clearly shown to be different than the broad consensus. So I take that information and assume that the majority of my leagues will be less optimistic on Austin and am able to adjust plans accordingly.

 

[TheFanatic]

I went with the over. But I'm biased as a homer and an owner.

 

[Anarchy99]

The number of WR that have had 1200 yfs has been on the rise the last few years. Went from 6 to 10 to 12 to 14 over the past 3 seasons. I would be inclined to vote no, but it may not be such a crazy thing to ask or consider.

 

[Ditka Butkus]

Not in that division.

 

[BroadwayG]

Max bet lightning on the under

 

[cstu]

The number of WR that have had 1200 yfs has been on the rise the last few years. Went from 6 to 10 to 12 to 14 over the past 3 seasons. I would be inclined to vote no, but it may not be such a crazy thing to ask or consider.

No, it's not when you consider his rushing numbers. If he gets 300 yards rushing he'd only need 900 receiving to reach 1200.

 

[False Start]

Never seen a guy hated so much, even though he virtually matched stats with Patterson and has the exact same opportunity to produce.

Production is production and opportunity is opportunity, they both have it and the only difference in each player is size, and that does not equate to stats. The value difference is the lack of knowledge that some have.

Its popular right now to like Patterson and not Austin, but it was also the popular decision that Lacy was just another Bama back. See how the popular decision isnt always right.

 

[Adam Harstad]

The number of WR that have had 1200 yfs has been on the rise the last few years. Went from 6 to 10 to 12 to 14 over the past 3 seasons. I would be inclined to vote no, but it may not be such a crazy thing to ask or consider.

No, it's not when you consider his rushing numbers. If he gets 300 yards rushing he'd only need 900 receiving to reach 1200.

Given the fact that only twice in NFL history* has a WR rushed for even 200 yards (Percy Harvin 2011, Bo Roberson 1962**), I would say expecting Tavon Austin to hit 300 would, in fact, be "such a crazy thing to ask or consider". 150-200 rushing yards seems reasonably achievable, but 300 rushing yards would be a historically impressive accomplishment.

* this could be three times, depending on how you deal with Josh Cribbs in 2009. He was listed as a WR, but much/most of his running came as a wildcat QB, and his rushing yards outnumbered his receiving yards by a factor of nearly 3 to 1.

** Roberson was in the middle of a position switch, playing almost exclusively as a runner in 1961 and almost exclusively as a receiver in 1963. Such position switches were quite common at the time, and several other successful WRs have eclipsed 200 rushing yards earlier in their career when they were still RBs. Eric Metcalf would be the most recent such example- he frequently topped 300 rushing yards as an RB in Cleveland, but only had 163 more rushing yards remaining in his career after Atlanta shifted him to WR.

Edit: Here's the complete list of "WRs" with 200+ rushing yards, as produced by the HDD. It's important to note that, for the purposes of the HDD, any player who was listed as a WR at any point during his career will be considered a WR for his entire career. Brad Smith and Josh Cribbs hit the mark as wildcat QBs, Metcalf, Taylor, Jackson, Mitchell, and Morris hit the mark as RBs before later being moved to WR, and Marlin Briscoe hit the mark as a starting QB before getting moved to WR. Briscoe is an interesting story- injuries forced him into the lineup for the Broncos as the first black quarterback of the modern era, but despite handily outperforming the other QBs on the roster, Denver cut him after the season and no other team was willing to sign him unless he switched positions.

 

[Anarchy99]

The number of WR that have had 1200 yfs has been on the rise the last few years. Went from 6 to 10 to 12 to 14 over the past 3 seasons. I would be inclined to vote no, but it may not be such a crazy thing to ask or consider.

No, it's not when you consider his rushing numbers. If he gets 300 yards rushing he'd only need 900 receiving to reach 1200.

Given the fact that only twice in NFL history* has a WR rushed for even 200 yards (Percy Harvin 2011, Bo Roberson 1962**), I would say expecting Tavon Austin to hit 300 would, in fact, be "such a crazy thing to ask or consider". 150-200 rushing yards seems reasonably achievable, but 300 rushing yards would be a historically impressive accomplishment.

* this could be three times, depending on how you deal with Josh Cribbs in 2009. He was listed as a WR, but much/most of his running came as a wildcat QB, and his rushing yards outnumbered his receiving yards by a factor of nearly 3 to 1.

** Roberson was in the middle of a position switch, playing almost exclusively as a runner in 1961 and almost exclusively as a receiver in 1963. Such position switches were quite common at the time, and several other successful WRs have eclipsed 200 rushing yards earlier in their career when they were still RBs. Eric Metcalf would be the most recent such example- he frequently topped 300 rushing yards as an RB in Cleveland, but only had 163 more rushing yards remaining in his career after Atlanta shifted him to WR.

Edit: Here's the complete list of "WRs" with 200+ rushing yards, as produced by the HDD. It's important to note that, for the purposes of the HDD, any player who was listed as a WR at any point during his career will be considered a WR for his entire career. Brad Smith and Josh Cribbs hit the mark as wildcat QBs, Metcalf, Taylor, Jackson, Mitchell, and Morris hit the mark as RBs before later being moved to WR, and Marlin Briscoe hit the mark as a starting QB before getting moved to WR. Briscoe is an interesting story- injuries forced him into the lineup for the Broncos as the first black quarterback of the modern era, but despite handily outperforming the other QBs on the roster, Denver cut him after the season and no other team was willing to sign him unless he switched positions.

I was think more along the lines of a Joey Galloway or Ernest Givins type season with 1050 receiving yards and 150 rushing yards. Ultimately I don't think Austin will hit 1200 yfs as I don't think he will get much more than 900 yards receiving. But it's an interesting thing to at least consider.

 

[Adam Harstad]

I was think more along the lines of a Joey Galloway or Ernest Givins type season with 1050 receiving yards and 150 rushing yards. Ultimately I don't think Austin will hit 1200 yfs as I don't think he will get much more than 900 yards receiving. But it's an interesting thing to at least consider.

I agree on both counts. I think 150 rushing yards is an eminently sensible rushing projection, and I also think it will be difficult for Austin to get the other 1050 receiving.