TE Brent Celek (1 Viewer)

[karmarooster]

in 2009 Celek had a pretty nice season, finishing with 76 catches for 971 yards and 8 TDs, good enough for TE4 in my PPR league. however there are some major differences in the 2 games he played with Kolb vs. the 14 he played with McNabb.

Celek had three 100+ yard games, two of which came in weeks 2 and 3 when Kolb started for an injured McNabb. In those two games, he had 16 catches, 208 yards, and a TD. obviously this is an exercise in absurdity (but it's fun)... prorated to 16 games that's something like 124 catches for 1600 yards.

Per game totals:

McNabb - 14 games, 4.3 catches, 55 yards, .5 TDs

Kolb - 2 games, 8 catches, 104 yards, .5 TDs

For whatever reason, Celek was significantly more valuable when Kolb was playing QB than McNabb. I would suspect Kolb was reluctant to test the CBs and took the safer option by checking down to Celek. Additionally the numbers are inflated because Kolb threw for over 300 yards in both games, due to playing catch up vs. the Saints and blowing out a poor KC defense. Finally, in weeks 2 and 3, Maclin was not playing as well as he did later in the season and I don't think saw as many snaps.

So how much would you predict an increase in Celek's production next year, if any? Also, does anyone have the numbers for the difference in the number or targets Celek saw from each QB?

If you split the difference between Celek's per game totals and project to 16 games, it comes out to 98 catches. Sounds pretty crazy, but on a pass-happy offense with deep threats on the outside like Jackson and Maclin, and a lack of a running game, Celek could have lots of room to roam the middle and join the top tier of TEs.

 

[KellysHeroes]

No increase, those games were also before Maclin became involved.

 

[offdee]

New QB's tend to rely on their TE more often.....shorter routes (less time from converging Defensive pressures) and easier pre-snap reads due to defensive mismatches and easier defensive breakdown due to the TE lining up close to/within the offensive line.

As QB's grow more comfortable and the game slows down for them their TE dependency is lessened.

 

[ClownDogs]

He will still be the Top 5 TE he was last year.

 

[gianmarco]

New QB's tend to rely on their TE more often.....shorter routes (less time from converging Defensive pressures) and easier pre-snap reads due to defensive mismatches and easier defensive breakdown due to the TE lining up close to/within the offensive line.

As QB's grow more comfortable and the game slows down for them their TE dependency is lessened.

Wasn't the above actually proved to be a myth?

 

[Wyld Stallyns]

1. I would suspect Kolb was reluctant to test the CBs and took the safer option by checking down to Celek. 2. Additionally the numbers are inflated because Kolb threw for over 300 yards in both games 3. Finally, in weeks 2 and 3, Maclin was not playing as well as he did later in the season and I don't think saw as many snaps.

These three points are what have me tempering my enthusiasm for Celek with Kolb permanently at the helm... I was initially going to increase his numbers in my projections, but the more I considered things I decided it'd be safest to leave his ranking where it was with McNabb at QB and just note that his upside/ceiling is a considerably higher now.

 

[phillyphan07]

I would say the Kolb-Celek relationship has more to do with the fact that they were both drafted in 2007 and both spent 07-08 on the second team offense (Kolb behind McNabb, Celek behind LJ Smith)... So when Kolb was pressed into service in early 2009 he probably had by far the most practice reps with Celek (who by 2009 was on the 1st team) than the other receivers.

Now that Kolb is going to have a whole offseason with Jackson, Maclin and Celek I wouldnt expect to see him favor Celek over the WRs

 

[karmarooster]

if you think Celek is going to continue at his pace with McNabb... then he's actually going to regress because his numbers from last season were inflated from playing with Kolb for two games....

now does that make ANY sense?

ie, Celek will regress to 68 catches next year because he's playing with Kolb the whole year, without the opportunity to play with 2009 Kolb for two games to bump his numbers up to 76 catches....

 

[CaptainHook]

super high on him

 

[karmarooster]

btw, does anyone have firm evidence that Maclin's second half of the season negatively affected Celek's numbers over that time?

In the final 8 games of the season, Maclin didn't play in week 15 and had a 0 catch game in week 14. not counting the game he didn't play, but including his 0 catch game, he averaged 4.3 catches per game.

over the final 8 games, Celek played in every game and averaged 4.5 catches per game.

finally, and this may be the most telling number.... over the first 8 games - excluding the two games with Kolb - Celek averaged 4 catches per game.

so actually his numbers went UP in the later season when Maclin began to show some promise.

 

[Multiple Scores]

Uptick for sure. I'm not sure how much more he could get, guy had almost 1000 yards and 8 tds last year. In my top 3 TEs, was in my top 5 before this. In a dynasty this is a great guy to have, many years of huge numbers on the horizon.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

He finished 4th at TE last year with a different QB. To me, it's dangerous to draft him in that same area regardless of the two games he did have with Kolb. Defenses will be preparing for Kolb every week and they'll find out what his weaknesses are and try to exploit them. Celek is a good player, but if I had to bet a million dollars on whether he would improve off last year or if he'll decline, I'd have to say he'd decline with a new QB under center.

 

[3nOut]

New QB's tend to rely on their TE more often.....shorter routes (less time from converging Defensive pressures) and easier pre-snap reads due to defensive mismatches and easier defensive breakdown due to the TE lining up close to/within the offensive line.

As QB's grow more comfortable and the game slows down for them their TE dependency is lessened.

This wasn't the case for Sanchez and Keller last year. In fact, Sanchez started looking for Keller more toward the end of the season.

 

[Steelfan7]

New QB's tend to rely on their TE more often.....shorter routes (less time from converging Defensive pressures) and easier pre-snap reads due to defensive mismatches and easier defensive breakdown due to the TE lining up close to/within the offensive line.As QB's grow more comfortable and the game slows down for them their TE dependency is lessened.

Unless the qb and te build a trust and chemistry as the season progresses.

 

[bweiser]

he is available in my no-TE, keeper league.

i don't pick until no. 22. i hope he is there.

 

[loose circuits]

Celek was clearly lobbying for Kolb a few weeks ago when I heard him on Sirius radio. I think they have that Romo/Witten type of love for each other.