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TE data - Targets, Snaps, Routes, Blocking %, Alignment (1 Viewer)

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
As some of you have noticed I'm a bit obsessed with Tight Ends the last couple seasons. Specifically, what are the characteristics of successful FF TEs as it relates to game data? We all know who the elite Tight Ends are and how much of a premium you will pay in redraft to acquire one. I've never liked that from a VBD/resource allocation view. But how do we differentiate between the next tier and the fodder? The position continually frustrates FF managers, because seemingly the only way to have a good week is to hope to get lucky with a touchdown.

There is a better way.

We can go beyond standard/advance receiving stats and evaluate which TEs have true upside based on how their team is deploying them. That's the whole point of this exercise - identify who is likely to make the jump from low end TE1 to Top 5, the type of performance that will win FF championships.

Before we get to Week 1, a few explanatory remarks to frame this.
  • Route % - also called route participation by some, it's simply the number of routes divided by the snaps. Context matters. Irv Smith had a high route % but barely stayed on the field (18 snaps.) Freiermuth, Goedert, Hockendson & Kittle (when healthy) rarely come off the field as they are good blockers. NOTE: very weird week for Kyle Pitts, who seldom blocked as a rookie. Worth monitoring.

  • Target % - the simple equation is targets divided by routes; how often were they targeted when they ran a route. Not listed in this table is market share, or the % of a team's targets the player has.

  • Blocking % - sorry for the limited data pull, I cannot easily find this from free sites. Only the Top Ten is listed. You can infer players were blocking a lot in the game by the alignment / routes but it's an incomplete picture. This does NOT refer to run blocking, this is the % of pass plays the TE stays in to help with protection. This was a normal week for Freiermuth, a really strange wacky one for Pitts. When Kittle is back you will notice he is virtually the only highly productive TE who stays in more than 13% fo the time (usually around 15% +/- 1.5%.)

  • Routes - how many routes run. The minimum threshold here for TE1 hopefuls is 23 routes per game. Besides the usual suspects, I would feel really good if I owned Hayden Hurst or Tyler Higbee. Kylen Granson would appear to be ahead of Moe Allie-Cox for the TE pass catching role for Indy. Tyler Conklin, under everyone's radar and available everywhere, is the biggest surprise. I wouldn't go grab him tonight, but definitely keep an eye on that.

  • Plays/Snaps - not the same number because of penalties. I include both because I'm interested in the last 3 columns, where TEs line up on the field, even if the play didn't count.

  • Targets - You may have noticed this is sorted by routes run - it all starts there. You need Snaps first, but then alignment and play calling determines routes. When TEs see an uptick in routes, that's good - but targets are earned. Players see Targets because they're open. Seems elementary, but it bears mentioning. Snaps alone are not enough. Guys don't see the ball coming their way because they're the last man standing (the "somebody has to catch the ball" crutch argument) - they accumulate targets because they did their job and achieved separation. Or they're strong like bull and their QB trusts them in a 50-50.

  • Out Slot Tight - often overlooked for Tight Ends, here is where the pass catchers differentiate themselves. Pitts spends way more time at WR than TE (which is, again, why Week 1 was bizarre for him.) Mark Andrews, ZAch Ertz and Travis Kelce (among others) thrive in the slot.
 
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BobbyLayne

Footballguy
PlayerTeamRoute %Target %Blocking %RoutesPlaysSnapsTargetsOutSlotTightRZin20RZin10RZin5
Hayden HurstCIN71.43%16.00%2.86%507570872147221
Tyler ConklinNYJ63.89%15.22%13.89%467772712947111
Dalton SchultzDAL68.75%20.45%6.25%446764902938000
Tyler HigbeeLAR68.25%25.58%4.76%4362631172729100
Evan EngramJAX81.82%11.11%2.27%365044432423000
Darren WallerLV74.47%17.14%2.13%354947612127111
Albert OkwuegbunamDEN76.19%18.75%n/a324442631724111
Dallas GoedertPHI48.48%12.50%15.15%326666451942000
Pat FreiermuthPIT55.56%33.33%18.52%305654102846111
Travis KelceKC71.43%30.00%n/a304542911727210
Kylen GransonIND60.00%23.33%10.00%305050721632000
Kyle PittsATL50.00%23.33%18.33%306160732830000
Zach ErtzARI81.08%13.33%n/a303837432510220
Mark AndrewsBAL64.44%24.14%n/a294545713311000
T. J. HockensonDET46.67%25.00%n/a286360721645100
Juwan JohnsonNO62.79%18.52%n/a274543502520100
Hunter HenryNE62.79%11.11%n/a274343321229000
David NjokuCLE37.88%4.00%n/a257066102050000
Logan ThomasWAS57.14%25.00%n/a244742632222100
Gerald EverettLAC53.49%17.39%n/a234343401132211
Dawson KnoxBUF53.49%8.70%n/a235043231327000
Brevin JordanHou54.76%8.70%n/a234142201625000
Austin HooperTEN59.46%9.09%n/a224037221622000
Cameron BrateTB45.24%15.79%n/a19404231633000
Isaiah LikelyBAL75.00%22.22%n/a18252441186110
Mo Alie-CoxIND36.73%11.11%n/a18504920842000
Robert TonyanGB77.27%29.41%n/a17372251912100
Jonnu SmithNE43.59%23.53%n/a17393943630000
Tre' McKittyLAC34.88%26.67%n/a15394340633110
Ian ThomasCAR45.45%20.00%n/a15343331132000
Mike GesickiMIA56.00%7.14%n/a14252510817000
Cole KmetCHI29.79%7.14%n/a14474711937000
Harrison BryantCLE42.42%28.57%n/a14343340628100
Noah FantSEA48.15%30.77%n/a13302742721110
Irv Smith JrMIN72.22%15.38%n/a1319182379100
Jody FortsonKC50.00%9.09%n/a11242210618110
C.J. UzomahNYJ50.00%0.00%n/a11232201517000
Will DisslySEA31.25%30.00%n/a10343230626000
Noah GrayKC27.78%20.00%n/a10373620433210
Colby ParkinsonSEA42.11%25.00%n/a8201922414000
O.J. HowardHOU33.33%50.00%n/a412122138100
Taysom HillNO20.00%33.33%n/a311151056000
Greg DulcichDENPlaceholder; on IR until Week 5--------------------
George KittleSF--------------------------
 
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BobbyLayne

Footballguy
Anyway, feel free to give me any feedback. This was hand entered so please LMK if you spot any errors.

I tried to list anyone in FF who was conceivably relevant but happy to pull data on other TEs if you are interested in specific teams position battles.

If people are interested in seeing this the ROS let me know, bc I don't want to clog up the board if it's not of interest.
 

zamboni

Footballguy
Great stuff, Bobby. The TE seems to be more of a wasteland than ever, so any edge to finding diamonds in the rough is great.

It may not show up in the stats, but I tend to look for TEs that are either the #1 or #2 passing options for their teams. That introduces guys like Kmet and Njoku, who didn’t fare well in the week 1 stats and are hardly in productive. pass-friendly offenses. But I try to keep them on the radar.
 

The Dude

Footballguy
It's a great accumulation of data. Not sure the blocking % is worth tracking. Might help to sort by target percent and then move target count to the right of that.

Appreciate your effort
 

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
Great stuff, Bobby. The TE seems to be more of a wasteland than ever, so any edge to finding diamonds in the rough is great.

It may not show up in the stats, but I tend to look for TEs that are either the #1 or #2 passing options for their teams. That introduces guys like Kmet and Njoku, who didn’t fare well in the week 1 stats and are hardly in productive. pass-friendly offenses. But I try to keep them on the radar.

Good point, thanks - I meant to bring that up bc it’s crucial. It’s super rare to see two Top 36 WRs and Top 12 TE. Actually, except in seasons where a trio suffered injuries at different times, it’s very hard for a QB to support 3 FF relevant receivers.

You’re spot on - virtually no Top 5 (or nearly so) TEs were not a Top 2 option on their own team.

Which brings up another point: for a TE to achieve a Top 5 season, they’ll need either 1) 90+ targets, or 2) 10+ TDs.

2003-21 (19!seasons / 95 Top 5 TE seasons)
  • Under 90 Targets + Under 10 TDs - 0 Top 5 TE seasons
  • Under 90 Targets + 10+ TDs - 5 Top 5 TE seasons
  • Over 90 Targets + Under 10 TDs - 72 Top 5 seasons (5/5 last year)
  • Over 90 Targets + 10+ TDs - 18 Top 5 seasons
 

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
FYI

The last time a team had two top 24 WRs and a top 5 tight end was the 2013 Denver Broncos. Peyton Manning threw 55 touchdown passes that year.

Five teams in the last 5 seasons - 5/160 or 1/32 - have had three receivers with 100+ targets:
  • 2018 NYG (2 WR + Saquon)
  • 2019 CAR (2WR + CMC)
  • 2020 CIN (3 WR)
  • 2020 PIT (3 WR)
  • 2020 WAS (McLaurin, McKissic, Logan Thomas)
 
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QuizGuy66

Footballguy
Confirms what I thought about Hurst. Uzomah's 2021 numbers with the Bengals seem like an absolute floor for Hayden Hurst with the Bengals in 2022 and I think he'll see much more. He did get an end zone target (and it might be the one stat I would suggest @BobbyLayne if you have it - RedZone/Endzone Target Share

Great stuff!

(Edited for Clarity)

-QG
 
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BobbyLayne

Footballguy
It's a great accumulation of data. Not sure the blocking % is worth tracking. Might help to sort by target percent and then move target count to the right of that.

Appreciate your effort

Thanks for the feedback.

Pass blocking is, interestingly, a very predictive and sticky stay. It also travels from team to team (Ertz, Engram.) It tells you what kind of guy you are dealing with. It makes a lot of sense - if your TE is on the field for a pass play but he stays in to block, he might as well be sitting in the stands.

That stickiness also tends to work with smaller sample sizes to see how a guy might operate before they even get the high snap share or route participation. That’s what makes it exciting to track! We can see guys learning their craft but not yet the FT starter are trending toward developing into a pass catching TE.

Conversely, it’s why guys like Njoku and OJ Howard will unlikely to be elite FF tight ends. They’re better RL tight ends bc it’s highly valued - trans love having that kind of player to max protect.

Mark Andrews only blocked on 1.3% of his pass plays last year. He ran 623 routes. Here's how some routes run for other TEs would change with similar usage
  • Dalton Schultz 589 -> 645
  • Tyler Conklin 480 -> 570
  • George Kittle 464 -> 527
  • Hunter Henry 441 ->492
That's 50-90 more routes for each.
 

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
Confirms what I thought about Hurst. Uzomah's number seem like an absolute floor for him and I think he'll see much more. He did get an end zone target (and it might be the one stat I would suggest @BobbyLayne if you have it - RedZone/Endzone Target Share

Great stuff!

-QG

Sure, easy to pull in. Maybe next week.

(There’s so much data here already, I had to do separate posts bc I exceeded the character count limit when I posted the table.)
 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
I don't know if this is the right thread or not but I saw Tight End and if anyone has the chance since I know he was not drafted in many leagues, grab Gerald Everett from the Chargers. It might be too late, he had 50/TD Week 1 but the Chargers have some injuries and their WRs might not be quite as good as everyone seems to think. I don't want to go down that road too far but Everett did alright in Seattle last year when they were a mess, he seems happy to be on the Chargers and he just might be the sleeper TE of the year mainly due to his QB.

Did Tonyan notch 11 TDs in 2020?

I don't think Everett is a gifted TE/Athlete/Receiver but he has a big arm QB that wants to hit him down the field. 54 yds on 3 catches, they want to exploit the TE in L.A.

Hayden Hurst also seems like a quick pick up if you don't have one of the top TEs. Schultz as an example should also slide down several notches.

Everett and Hurst have QBs that will make them look better than they are but that only makes it easier to find them.
 

Ilov80s

Footballguy
Awesome stuff and maybe I prematurely dropped Granson in dynasty. He might even pop up on redraft radar soon.

Also I feel like maybe I got too excited for Everett. I might have spent too much on him this week.
 

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
I don't know if this is the right thread or not but I saw Tight End and if anyone has the chance since I know he was not drafted in many leagues, grab Gerald Everett from the Chargers. It might be too late, he had 50/TD Week 1 but the Chargers have some injuries and their WRs might not be quite as good as everyone seems to think. I don't want to go down that road too far but Everett did alright in Seattle last year when they were a mess, he seems happy to be on the Chargers and he just might be the sleeper TE of the year mainly due to his QB.

Did Tonyan notch 11 TDs in 2020?

I don't think Everett is a gifted TE/Athlete/Receiver but he has a big arm QB that wants to hit him down the field. 54 yds on 3 catches, they want to exploit the TE in L.A.

Hayden Hurst also seems like a quick pick up if you don't have one of the top TEs. Schultz as an example should also slide down several notches.

Everett and Hurst have QBs that will make them look better than they are but that only makes it easier to find them.

Hurst did run a ton of routes - they also ran 93 plays or something crazy, so look at the route % / target % for a better idea of his utilization. Good but not an outlier.

Everett 4 targets, same as six other Chargers....including Tre' McKitty, the other TE.

The thing we're trying to focus on here is does the data indicate a TE will have a Top 5 season. Because we're looking for an edge. The majority of us play in 12 team leagues. If you don't have a Top 5 TE, then by definition you have a below average TE.

Could Everett have a Top 5 TE season like Robert Tonyan, who accomplished it with a record low 59 targets? In theory, yes. But it's an edge case.

Since 2003 - 19 years of data, 95 Top 5 TE seasons - only 5 guys have had a Top 5 season with less than 90 targets and 10+ TDs.

Same question applies to both Everett and Hurst: do you believe they will be a Top 2 target on their own team? Barring injury, seems unlikely.

Though with Keenan Allen out, who knows. But in the first game no one stepped up - seven different guys had four targets.

Hamstring injuries can linger. So let's look at his history. In his 6th year, and his targets have increased every year (he's on his third team, first year with Chargers): 32-50-60-62-63-?? Nice progression. But doesn't seem like he's dominating his own position over McKitty or about to increase his market share for the team. But what's his competition, Joshua Palmer, DeAndre Carter, the aforementioned McBride. Which brings us to Ekeler and Mike Williams. Yeah, that's not happening is it.

Hurst is in a market share with Chase and Tee Higgins. Everyone stays healthy, probably not a future Top 5 TE.

We're looking for above average, and if the guy isn't a Top Two on his own team, then you need TDs. Those are variable, hard to predict, and the least sticky year over year. That's why all the other metrics are being examined - because they are predictive and sticky.
 

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
Uzomah's number seem like an absolute floor for him and I think he'll see much more.

Missed this earlier. C.J. ran 11 routes in 22 snaps for the Jets Week 1, zero targets. Conklin seems like the lead dog there.

Tyler was buried on the depth chart and mostly a STer his first 3 years with the Vikes; last year with Irv Smith lost for the year, he saw 924 and ran 444 routes, 87 targets, 16 RZ looks (2 of his 3 TDs were inside the 5.) Obviously that offense always went through Cook and the WRs, and maybe the Jets will spread it around in a similar manner. Point being, he profiles as a good candidate if he starts earning more targets. Which might be hard with Moore, Wilson, the pass catching RBs.....but worth monitoring for sure.
 

The Dude

Footballguy
Pass blocking is, interestingly, a very predictive and sticky stay. It also travels from team to team (Ertz, Engram.) It tells you what kind of guy you are dealing with. It makes a lot of sense - if your TE is on the field for a pass play but he stays in to block, he might as well be sitting in the stands.

That stickiness also tends to work with smaller sample sizes to see how a guy might operate before they even get the high snap share or route participation. That’s what makes it exciting to track! We can see guys learning their craft but not yet the FT starter are trending toward developing into a pass catching TE.

Conversely, it’s why guys like Njoku and OJ Howard will unlikely to be elite FF tight ends. They’re better RL tight ends bc it’s highly valued - trans love having that kind of player to max protect.

Mark Andrews only blocked on 1.3% of his pass plays last year. He ran 623 routes. Here's how some routes run for other TEs would change with similar usage
  • Dalton Schultz 589 -> 645
  • Tyler Conklin 480 -> 570
  • George Kittle 464 -> 527
  • Hunter Henry 441 ->492
That's 50-90 more routes for each.

but isn’t that just a factor of route %? your math is lowering block % and shifting output to route %. Route percent is just easier to evaluate - but it’s jour data. Thanks for the reply
 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
I don't know if this is the right thread or not but I saw Tight End and if anyone has the chance since I know he was not drafted in many leagues, grab Gerald Everett from the Chargers. It might be too late, he had 50/TD Week 1 but the Chargers have some injuries and their WRs might not be quite as good as everyone seems to think. I don't want to go down that road too far but Everett did alright in Seattle last year when they were a mess, he seems happy to be on the Chargers and he just might be the sleeper TE of the year mainly due to his QB.

Did Tonyan notch 11 TDs in 2020?

I don't think Everett is a gifted TE/Athlete/Receiver but he has a big arm QB that wants to hit him down the field. 54 yds on 3 catches, they want to exploit the TE in L.A.

Hayden Hurst also seems like a quick pick up if you don't have one of the top TEs. Schultz as an example should also slide down several notches.

Everett and Hurst have QBs that will make them look better than they are but that only makes it easier to find them.

Hurst did run a ton of routes - they also ran 93 plays or something crazy, so look at the route % / target % for a better idea of his utilization. Good but not an outlier.

Everett 4 targets, same as six other Chargers....including Tre' McKitty, the other TE.

The thing we're trying to focus on here is does the data indicate a TE will have a Top 5 season. Because we're looking for an edge. The majority of us play in 12 team leagues. If you don't have a Top 5 TE, then by definition you have a below average TE.

Could Everett have a Top 5 TE season like Robert Tonyan, who accomplished it with a record low 59 targets? In theory, yes. But it's an edge case.

Since 2003 - 19 years of data, 95 Top 5 TE seasons - only 5 guys have had a Top 5 season with less than 90 targets and 10+ TDs.

Same question applies to both Everett and Hurst: do you believe they will be a Top 2 target on their own team? Barring injury, seems unlikely.

Though with Keenan Allen out, who knows. But in the first game no one stepped up - seven different guys had four targets.

Hamstring injuries can linger. So let's look at his history. In his 6th year, and his targets have increased every year (he's on his third team, first year with Chargers): 32-50-60-62-63-?? Nice progression. But doesn't seem like he's dominating his own position over McKitty or about to increase his market share for the team. But what's his competition, Joshua Palmer, DeAndre Carter, the aforementioned McBride. Which brings us to Ekeler and Mike Williams. Yeah, that's not happening is it.

Hurst is in a market share with Chase and Tee Higgins. Everyone stays healthy, probably not a future Top 5 TE.

We're looking for above average, and if the guy isn't a Top Two on his own team, then you need TDs. Those are variable, hard to predict, and the least sticky year over year. That's why all the other metrics are being examined - because they are predictive and sticky.
This is going to be one of the more enlightening threads of the season, I can tell that already.
 

jabarony

Footballguy
Great stuff, Bobby. The TE seems to be more of a wasteland than ever, so any edge to finding diamonds in the rough is great.

It may not show up in the stats, but I tend to look for TEs that are either the #1 or #2 passing options for their teams. That introduces guys like Kmet and Njoku, who didn’t fare well in the week 1 stats and are hardly in productive. pass-friendly offenses. But I try to keep them on the radar.
I don't know that Njoku is even the top TE on that team. They pay him as such, but give me H. Bryant. I know Njoku hasn't produced. Bryant still may.
 

zamboni

Footballguy
Great stuff, Bobby. The TE seems to be more of a wasteland than ever, so any edge to finding diamonds in the rough is great.

It may not show up in the stats, but I tend to look for TEs that are either the #1 or #2 passing options for their teams. That introduces guys like Kmet and Njoku, who didn’t fare well in the week 1 stats and are hardly in productive. pass-friendly offenses. But I try to keep them on the radar.
I don't know that Njoku is even the top TE on that team. They pay him as such, but give me H. Bryant. I know Njoku hasn't produced. Bryant still may.
Yeah I guess I was trying to chase the contract, lack of pass catchers in that offense, and significant athleticism. Just may not be there though.
 

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
Wish I would have read this before going after Everett. @BobbyLayne any non obvious TEs you like for an upside play?

Before I ran the data today, I would have said Logan Thomas. After looking it over, I'd so no. I always forget the 2020 breakout was mostly because he led the league in Slot WR snaps. Same HC/OC but they prefer to use Samuel (41 slot snaps) then Dotson (30 in the slot) for that role, Logan lined up there 22 times.

ASIDE - Samuel was a red hot add, but Dotson led all WRs in snaps. Curtis mostly played in 11 formations, 3 snaps on the boundary. Over time I think his market share wanes until he's the 4th option, but we'll see.

Back to TE recs....

I like Engram. 4th in targets week 1 behind Kirk, Zay Jones and MJJ - that has to change. He's always hurt, has gone long stretches without scoring, was overdrafted a few times - the FF community is down on him. Post hupe he could be a value. He fits the alogment and route utilization metrics better than anyone who might be on your WW. The key will be if he can pass Zay & MJJ to brecome the 2nd option. The "alpha" is a Slot WR so I think it's possible.

Conklin, discussed upthread.

Juwan Johnson. It's looking like Troutman will be the blocking TE. JJ is a late bloomer, but he's starting to develop his craft, getting used in the Slot often. Decent run blocker so he might stay on the field, but regardless, he's intriguing. But the path to Top 2 is impossible, right? MT/Kamara/Juice. But good sleeper to monitor. UDFA couple years ago, def a long shot.

I don't think today I could say I've found the next Delanie Walker or Logan Thomas, someone who has been in the league for years but is finally ready to break out. That does happen every few years, and it's why I keep churning through this stuff trying to refine the process.
 

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
Great stuff, Bobby. The TE seems to be more of a wasteland than ever, so any edge to finding diamonds in the rough is great.

It may not show up in the stats, but I tend to look for TEs that are either the #1 or #2 passing options for their teams. That introduces guys like Kmet and Njoku, who didn’t fare well in the week 1 stats and are hardly in productive. pass-friendly offenses. But I try to keep them on the radar.
I don't know that Njoku is even the top TE on that team. They pay him as such, but give me H. Bryant. I know Njoku hasn't produced. Bryant still may.

Bryant is a good football player, widely expected to grow into a starting TE when he was drafted a few years ago. With Hooper gone maybe he sees the field more. He did have a stretch his rookie year where Baker trusted him.

Week 1 38 plays, 14 routes, 4 targets. 6 Slot snaps, 38 Tight. Not happening for him yet but def a guy who could see a bigger role.
 

travdogg

Footballguy
Uzomah's number seem like an absolute floor for him and I think he'll see much more.

Missed this earlier. C.J. ran 11 routes in 22 snaps for the Jets Week 1, zero targets. Conklin seems like the lead dog there.

Tyler was buried on the depth chart and mostly a STer his first 3 years with the Vikes; last year with Irv Smith lost for the year, he saw 924 and ran 444 routes, 87 targets, 16 RZ looks (2 of his 3 TDs were inside the 5.) Obviously that offense always went through Cook and the WRs, and maybe the Jets will spread it around in a similar manner. Point being, he profiles as a good candidate if he starts earning more targets. Which might be hard with Moore, Wilson, the pass catching RBs.....but worth monitoring for sure.
Big fan of Conklin. Also, might help his case that the Jets WRs are mostly smurfs.
 

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
Pass blocking is, interestingly, a very predictive and sticky stay. It also travels from team to team (Ertz, Engram.) It tells you what kind of guy you are dealing with. It makes a lot of sense - if your TE is on the field for a pass play but he stays in to block, he might as well be sitting in the stands.

That stickiness also tends to work with smaller sample sizes to see how a guy might operate before they even get the high snap share or route participation. That’s what makes it exciting to track! We can see guys learning their craft but not yet the FT starter are trending toward developing into a pass catching TE.

Conversely, it’s why guys like Njoku and OJ Howard will unlikely to be elite FF tight ends. They’re better RL tight ends bc it’s highly valued - trans love having that kind of player to max protect.

Mark Andrews only blocked on 1.3% of his pass plays last year. He ran 623 routes. Here's how some routes run for other TEs would change with similar usage
  • Dalton Schultz 589 -> 645
  • Tyler Conklin 480 -> 570
  • George Kittle 464 -> 527
  • Hunter Henry 441 ->492
That's 50-90 more routes for each.

but isn’t that just a factor of route %? your math is lowering block % and shifting output to route %. Route percent is just easier to evaluate - but it’s jour data. Thanks for the reply

Nope. I see why you are thinking they are inverse, but strictly speaking they are not.

Route % is how often they ran a route. Includes all snaps - both passing and running plays.

Blocking % is how often they stayed in to block - for pass plays only.

They're not relational, they don't affect each other. Obviously when they pass block more, they will run less routes. But the two metrics are measuring different things (tangentially related but not the same.)

You're missing the larger point - Blocking % is predictive. It travels. It really tells you what kind of TE you are looking at, and it reveals who that player will probably always be - guys that excel at getting open don't waste snaps to pass block.

Route participation is not nearly as predictive and is indicative of factors that don't relate to the specific TE we're trying to evaluate.
 

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
Tiny, tiny data issue - there seems to be a discrepancy for some of the TE between plays and total(Out + Slot + Tight).

Sorry if my explain in post 1 was lacking.

Plays/Snaps - not the same number because of penalties. I include both because I'm interested in the last 3 columns, where TEs line up on the field, even if the play didn't count.

For most of the guys, Plays are greater than Snaps. Some are exactly the same. The ones with more Plays than Snaps were on the field when penalties wiped out the plays. But I wanted to see where they lined up whether the snap counted or not.

For a couple guys, Plays are less than Snaps. That's bc they played positions other than TE/WR. Who knows where Taysom Hill lined up for his 15 snaps, 11 were at TE/WR. A couple of the guys had a few plays at H back or FB, and my sources don't account for that.

I'll keep digging around to see if I can unearth more complete alignment stats, would be nice to clean it up and have everything tie out in an orderly fashion.
 

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
Anyway, I'm no TE guru. I found a couple different sources with a different way of looking at the position. I found out the hard way I can't post links to them bc they are direct FBG competitors. I've been trying to share this info for a couple years with posts here and there, but it hasn't been registering with most.

Decided the only workaround is to start compiling my own data and confirm the theories I have been espousing actually hold true. It's served me well the past few years and the community is better when we share info, but I'm learning as I go, right along with everyone else.
 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Wish I would have read this before going after Everett. @BobbyLayne any non obvious TEs you like for an upside play?
I can count $12 Million reasons why Everett might be ahead of the other Tight Ends at least in terms of expected output or production. 6-3/240, he's not there to run block for the Chargers.
I can count $5 Million they gave him just for signing, it's not huge dollars but it wasn't chump change either.

@BobbyLayne my question for you if Engram is available, he only had 4/28 this week, likely will remain on waivers in my league...would you cut Everett? I understand how you broke the numbers down, well done. I still feel strongly Everett should be a solid option as the season continues.

Good news is we get a 1st hand look tomorrow night with no interruptions or other games to distract. I will be fascinated to watch some of the things you have brought to light in here.
 
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BobbyLayne

Footballguy
Wish I would have read this before going after Everett. @BobbyLayne any non obvious TEs you like for an upside play?
I can count $12 Million reasons why Everett might be ahead of the other Tight Ends at least in terms of expected output or production. 6-3/240, he's not there to run block for the Chargers.
I can count $5 Million they gave him just for signing, it's not huge dollars but it wasn't chump change either.

@BobbyLayne my question for you if Engram is available, he only had 4/28 this week, likely will remain on waivers in my league...would you cut Everett? I understand how you broke the numbers down, well done. I still feel strongly Everett should be a solid option as the season continues.

Good news is we get a 1st hand look tomorrow night with no interruptions or other games to distract. I will be fascinated to watch some of the things you have brought to light in here.

We would not have to spend much time at OTC or Spotrac to conclude salaries and guaranteed money are more a function of time of service, not talent or production.

No, I would not drop Everett for Engram. I wouldn't hold him to begin with, but that is moot.

I was just using him as an example of the profile we are looking for, but Evan has not been very fun to own in FF for the most part. Now if he catches fire like he did his rookie year or the first month of 2019, that would be exciting. Because he has disappointed so often, I doubt anyone is going to beat you to him.

(ASIDE - TDs are variable and the least sticky....right...right? but man alive, 10 TDs in his last 51 games? wouldn't you accidentally fall into the end zone once in awhile after catching 200+ passes? the guy he is catching balls from might take a leap, but he threw 10 TDs.)

But looking at their offense, you could see a path to him being an above average TE again. Maybe.
 

The Dude

Footballguy
Pass blocking is, interestingly, a very predictive and sticky stay. It also travels from team to team (Ertz, Engram.) It tells you what kind of guy you are dealing with. It makes a lot of sense - if your TE is on the field for a pass play but he stays in to block, he might as well be sitting in the stands.

That stickiness also tends to work with smaller sample sizes to see how a guy might operate before they even get the high snap share or route participation. That’s what makes it exciting to track! We can see guys learning their craft but not yet the FT starter are trending toward developing into a pass catching TE.

Conversely, it’s why guys like Njoku and OJ Howard will unlikely to be elite FF tight ends. They’re better RL tight ends bc it’s highly valued - trans love having that kind of player to max protect.

Mark Andrews only blocked on 1.3% of his pass plays last year. He ran 623 routes. Here's how some routes run for other TEs would change with similar usage
  • Dalton Schultz 589 -> 645
  • Tyler Conklin 480 -> 570
  • George Kittle 464 -> 527
  • Hunter Henry 441 ->492
That's 50-90 more routes for each.

but isn’t that just a factor of route %? your math is lowering block % and shifting output to route %. Route percent is just easier to evaluate - but it’s jour data. Thanks for the reply

Nope. I see why you are thinking they are inverse, but strictly speaking they are not.

Route % is how often they ran a route. Includes all snaps - both passing and running plays.

Blocking % is how often they stayed in to block - for pass plays only.

They're not relational, they don't affect each other. Obviously when they pass block more, they will run less routes. But the two metrics are measuring different things (tangentially related but not the same.)

You're missing the larger point - Blocking % is predictive. It travels. It really tells you what kind of TE you are looking at, and it reveals who that player will probably always be - guys that excel at getting open don't waste snaps to pass block.

Route participation is not nearly as predictive and is indicative of factors that don't relate to the specific TE we're trying to evaluate.
Interesting. Do you think it’s a better measure of routes and blocking with a denominator of number of pass plays?

do you have an idea how to adjust for positive game script like early large lead resulting in more run plays that would cause less attractive stats for tes?
 

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
Hayden Hurst also seems like a quick pick up if you don't have one of the top TEs.

See, I'm learning along with everyone else. I'm also getting old and forget details.

The Bengals ran 100 snaps in the OT loss. Tee Higgins played 25 before getting concussed.

When he clears the protocol, order will be restored, and Hayden will go back to being a disappointment.

This stuff is not so easy lol but it is fun.
 

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
nteresting. Do you think it’s a better measure of routes and blocking with a denominator of number of pass plays?

do you have an idea how to adjust for positive game script like early large lead resulting in more run plays that would cause less attractive stats for tes?

Right now a big issue for me is just finding the raw data I want. As of tonight I can only find Blocking % for TEs for the Top 10 TE route runners. Suboptimal.

Once I figure out where to get more raw data without buying subscriptions, then I'll worry about fancy ways to slice and dice the data.
 

zamboni

Footballguy
I can count $12 Million reasons why Everett might be ahead of the other Tight Ends at least in terms of expected output or production. 6-3/240, he's not there to run block for the Chargers.
I can count $5 Million they gave him just for signing, it's not huge dollars but it wasn't chump change either.
If money were the case, we’d see guys like Njoku and Jonnu Smith get a lot more opportunities. Seems like TEs are often paid as much for their blocking as they are for their pass catching prowess.
 

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
How do we feel about Schultz now that Dak is out? His wk1 numbers were good

Wish I knew what to think. Is it really going to be Cooper Rush? No Ben Dinucci experience this year? What's Garrett Gilbert up to these days, teaching gym class somewhere?

Dalton is my TE in redraft. I had Kmet (lololololol) and don't really have room/plans for a backup. Gonna be a rough month. Maybe.

Conventional wisdom (aka too lazy to think) says young QBs love the security blanket of a reliable TE. Well Cooper was chucking it to WRs in his only start. Back in college he utilized TEs a fair amount in 3 of his 4 years (including the aforementioned Tyler Conklin, #freupchips.)

Couldn't we just think good thoughts and hope this turns out OK?
 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Hayden Hurst also seems like a quick pick up if you don't have one of the top TEs.

See, I'm learning along with everyone else. I'm also getting old and forget details.

The Bengals ran 100 snaps in the OT loss. Tee Higgins played 25 before getting concussed.

When he clears the protocol, order will be restored, and Hayden will go back to being a disappointment.

This stuff is not so easy lol but it is fun.
One of the things interesting about Hurst from your stats was that he lined up in several places. Outside, Inside/Slot and Tight, shows a little versatility. I also think Uzomah had a few big games last year and Cinci/Burrow shows a knack for finding that spot. Hurst is not super talented but he was drafted 25th overall in 2018 and Burrow is perhaps the most talented QB he has worked with and he has almost no one pushing him for playing time/targets at TE.

The kind of TE Hurst is, you know it's up and down but there might be enough to just plug him in and on the weeks you hit, bonus.
Andrews didn't exactly light it up last week and he went 2nd Rd, almost 1st Rd in my 1.5PPR for TEs. I'm sure he bounces back this week with better numbers but Everett was No 4 for the Week

BTW: This is a lot to digest :thumbup:
 

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
BTW: This is a lot to digest :thumbup:

Yeah, we're probably not going to discover discover plutonium by accident in this thread.

But rn it's just looking at one week of data. It's going to be interesting to see what we identify and discover over the course of the season.

Sucks the data I am pulling isn't available until Wednesday, a lot of waivers run Tuesday night.
 

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
Rich Cimini

@RichCimini
·
Sep 12

Jets offensive snap counts: Most noteworthy is TE C.J. Uzomah — only 23 of 84 snaps. Tyler Conklin is the “receiving” TE and they were in passing-mode the entire fourth quarter. #Jets

***************

In post 1 I mentioned context matters. A few posts up I opined why we shouldn't get too excited about Hurst. Now I'm casting doubt on Conklin, as the Week 1 game script may not be indicative to how the Jets usually want to run their offense.

***************

A lot of folks post their rankings or make predictions and do so in a fairly straightforward, bold & declarative manner. It's pretty easy to follow. Plant your flag, defend the position.

My mind is NOT wired like that. I do understand that it might be frustrating for some. I get it.

I don't come to binary conclusions about players. I think about a range of outcomes. I think about the probability of each of those outcomes.

As I uncover more data, my view shifts slightly. That's what is beautiful about data. We just have to follow where it leads us.

Like I said, I am not an expert on Tight Ends, and I didn't start this thread to simply vomit my thoughts. This thread should be the community learning together.

My objective is it should not be about opinions. It should be simply asking, "what is the data trying to tell us?"
 

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
Ironically, I will now offer a post almost purely opinion based.

Cole Kmet played in exceptionally bad weather last week. I would like to think there is still hope he could be a Top 5 TE or see production close to that.

But it's really a bet on how much you believe in Justin Fields. Both Mooney and Kmet played far better with Andy Dalton than they did the rookie version of Fields.

I cut Kmet this week to pick up a bye week WR. I did this knowing my TE1 (Schultz) might be in for a temporary dip.

Kmet saw 93 targets a year ago. His market share was 17.4% and I expect that to increase. But from a roster construction view, I kind of hate backup QBs and TEs - they're just t i t s on a bull if you have good starters. I usually carry 6-8 RBs (7 rn), and 3-4 are just lottery tickets. One of them was a pre-emptive Jeff Wilson pickup, so yippee, 2-4 weeks of production before he tears his meniscus sitting down or some flukey thing (I didn't make that up, actually happened to him once.)

Point is, everyone was recommending Kmet should be dumped. This year's tiny sample size would tell you 47 snaps and 14 routes is not a path to success. My gut - and a TON of data from last year, when he was very unlucky and had zero TDs - tells me he is going to be a good TE1. Eventually.
 

TwinTurbo

Footballguy
Ironically, I will now offer a post almost purely opinion based.

Cole Kmet played in exceptionally bad weather last week. I would like to think there is still hope he could be a Top 5 TE or see production close to that.

But it's really a bet on how much you believe in Justin Fields. Both Mooney and Kmet played far better with Andy Dalton than they did the rookie version of Fields.

I cut Kmet this week to pick up a bye week WR. I did this knowing my TE1 (Schultz) might be in for a temporary dip.

Kmet saw 93 targets a year ago. His market share was 17.4% and I expect that to increase. But from a roster construction view, I kind of hate backup QBs and TEs - they're just t i t s on a bull if you have good starters. I usually carry 6-8 RBs (7 rn), and 3-4 are just lottery tickets. One of them was a pre-emptive Jeff Wilson pickup, so yippee, 2-4 weeks of production before he tears his meniscus sitting down or some flukey thing (I didn't make that up, actually happened to him once.)

Point is, everyone was recommending Kmet should be dumped. This year's tiny sample size would tell you 47 snaps and 14 routes is not a path to success. My gut - and a TON of data from last year, when he was very unlucky and had zero TDs - tells me he is going to be a good TE1. Eventually.
The Bears have a top 5 easiest schedule and maybe the easiest for TE. I wouldn't give up on Kmet yet.
 

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
Ironically, I will now offer a post almost purely opinion based.

Cole Kmet played in exceptionally bad weather last week. I would like to think there is still hope he could be a Top 5 TE or see production close to that.

But it's really a bet on how much you believe in Justin Fields. Both Mooney and Kmet played far better with Andy Dalton than they did the rookie version of Fields.

I cut Kmet this week to pick up a bye week WR. I did this knowing my TE1 (Schultz) might be in for a temporary dip.

Kmet saw 93 targets a year ago. His market share was 17.4% and I expect that to increase. But from a roster construction view, I kind of hate backup QBs and TEs - they're just t i t s on a bull if you have good starters. I usually carry 6-8 RBs (7 rn), and 3-4 are just lottery tickets. One of them was a pre-emptive Jeff Wilson pickup, so yippee, 2-4 weeks of production before he tears his meniscus sitting down or some flukey thing (I didn't make that up, actually happened to him once.)

Point is, everyone was recommending Kmet should be dumped. This year's tiny sample size would tell you 47 snaps and 14 routes is not a path to success. My gut - and a TON of data from last year, when he was very unlucky and had zero TDs - tells me he is going to be a good TE1. Eventually.
The Bears have a top 5 easiest schedule and maybe the easiest for TE. I wouldn't give up on Kmet yet.

Two posts up, I agree. Lot of favorable factors and last week was a slopfest - that will skew data.
 

FairWarning

Footballguy
This is really good stuff Bobby. I would be interested in seeing this for the entire season. I had 3 TEs between the FBG contest and my league and they combined for Blutarski numbers - 0.0. (Kittle, Kmet, Likely).
 

QuizGuy66

Footballguy
Uzomah's number seem like an absolute floor for him and I think he'll see much more.

Missed this earlier. C.J. ran 11 routes in 22 snaps for the Jets Week 1, zero targets. Conklin seems like the lead dog there.

Tyler was buried on the depth chart and mostly a STer his first 3 years with the Vikes; last year with Irv Smith lost for the year, he saw 924 and ran 444 routes, 87 targets, 16 RZ looks (2 of his 3 TDs were inside the 5.) Obviously that offense always went through Cook and the WRs, and maybe the Jets will spread it around in a similar manner. Point being, he profiles as a good candidate if he starts earning more targets. Which might be hard with Moore, Wilson, the pass catching RBs.....but worth monitoring for sure.

Sorry I totally screwed the way I phrased this - I meant to say "Uzomah's 2021 <-- Numbers Should Be An Absolute floor for Hurst in 2022" - sorry about that :bag:

I think Hurst is a big upgrade in terms of how he'll impact the passing game.

-QG
 

OldMilwaukee

IBL Representative
  • Routes - how many routes run. The minimum threshold here for TE1 hopefuls is 23 routes per game. Besides the usual suspects, I would feel really good if I owned Hayden Hurst or Tyler Higbee. Kylen Granson would appear to be ahead of Moe Allie-Cox for the TE pass catching role for Indy. Tyler Conklin, under everyone's radar and available everywhere, is the biggest surprise. I wouldn't go grab him tonight, but definitely keep an eye on that.

I would.......better a little early than late.
 

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