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2023 TE data - Targets, Snaps, Routes, Blocking %, Alignment (2 Viewers)

Top Ten Route Data

Full Table tomorrow

Route Data
TeamTeamRoute %Blocking %RoutesPlaysSnapsTargets
Travis KelceKC70.00%8.90%63909016
Gerald EverettLAC60.90%9.80%56929214
Hayden HurstCIN72.50%2.90%5069698
Darren WallerLV73.50%2.90%50688114
Tyler ConklinNYJ63.90%13.90%4672727
Dalton SchultzDAL68.80%6.30%4464649
Tyler HigbeeLAR69.40%4.80%43626211
Evan EngramJAX81.81%2.30%3644444
Dallas GoedertPHI48.50%15.20%3266664
Tre' McKittyLAC39.00%15.60%3077774
 
Top Ten Route Data

Full Table tomorrow

Route Data
TeamTeamRoute %Blocking %RoutesPlaysSnapsTargets
Travis KelceKC70.00%8.90%63909016
Gerald EverettLAC60.90%9.80%56929214
Hayden HurstCIN72.50%2.90%5069698
Darren WallerLV73.50%2.90%50688114
Tyler ConklinNYJ63.90%13.90%4672727
Dalton SchultzDAL68.80%6.30%4464649
Tyler HigbeeLAR69.40%4.80%43626211
Evan EngramJAX81.81%2.30%3644444
Dallas GoedertPHI48.50%15.20%3266664
Tre' McKittyLAC39.00%15.60%3077774
That Engram route % really stands out IMO. From what I've gathered from a lot of analysts that really track this stuff, an 80% route rate or higher is pretty elite in terms of TE usage.
 
Everett > Higbee

As good as Allen and Williams are-- Kupp is another animal.
Herbert > stafford too
Agree with your comments but we also need to consider a healthy Parham. I expect him to steal goal line looks (at a minimum).
McKitty is also involved as shown upthread. When Parnham is healthy, they may not dress all three of them, but it does seem that Everett has to contend with other TEs. Higbee seems to have the job mainly to himself.
 
Top Ten Route Data

Full Table tomorrow

Route Data
TeamTeamRoute %Blocking %RoutesPlaysSnapsTargets
Travis KelceKC70.00%8.90%63909016
Gerald EverettLAC60.90%9.80%56929214
Hayden HurstCIN72.50%2.90%5069698
Darren WallerLV73.50%2.90%50688114
Tyler ConklinNYJ63.90%13.90%4672727
Dalton SchultzDAL68.80%6.30%4464649
Tyler HigbeeLAR69.40%4.80%43626211
Evan EngramJAX81.81%2.30%3644444
Dallas GoedertPHI48.50%15.20%3266664
Tre' McKittyLAC39.00%15.60%3077774
That Engram route % really stands out IMO. From what I've gathered from a lot of analysts that really track this stuff, an 80% route rate or higher is pretty elite in terms of TE usage.
Ever since he's been in the league, Engram has basically been incapable of blocking. I think you have no worries on that front.

He also has a good shot at being one of his team's top two targets. Only threats are MJones and Etienne.

Throw in a seemingly functional offense and I think he has the best chance to be this year's late-round breakout. Which of course doesn't mean it will happen
 
Love this thread.
Thoughts on Irv Smith? If he hadn't let that 60 yarder go right through his hands, he would be a hot waiver pickup, especially since he was likely dropped after week 1.

Engram has route %, but I'm going to guess his aDOT is pretty low. Doesn't look like very high upside, but I guess you could do worse than 7 catches for 46 yards.

Can Isaiah Likely become the third option in Baltimore?

For those of us stuck in tight end wasteland in deep leagues (I'm assuming Higbee, Everett, and Logan Thomas already owned), I think we're likely looking at Conklin, Engram, Likely, or Juwan Johnson.
 
Everett > Higbee

As good as Allen and Williams are-- Kupp is another animal.
Herbert > stafford too
Agree with your comments but we also need to consider a healthy Parham. I expect him to steal goal line looks (at a minimum).
McKitty is also involved as shown upthread. When Parnham is healthy, they may not dress all three of them, but it does seem that Everett has to contend with other TEs. Higbee seems to have the job mainly to himself.

Parnham has been an in-line blocking TE who rarely lines up in the slot or wide. Occasionally stays in to block. All of which points to lower route participation.

He will see RZ looks - 3 TDs each of his first two seasons, Herbert trusts him - but I don’t think he will significantly impact the Everett.
 
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For those of us stuck in tight end wasteland in deep leagues (I'm assuming Higbee, Everett, and Logan Thomas already owned), I think we're likely looking at Conklin, Engram, Likely, or Juwan Johnson.
Leaving aside Likely for a moment (see previous post), I would rank the others Engram >>>>>>>>>>>> Johnson>Conklin. Engram has been an elite TE before and has the highest upside. With JJ and Conklin, the best you can really hope for is that they become usable starters (I suppose it's always possible they could go Full Barnidge, but I wouldn't bet on it)
 
Can Isaiah Likely become the third option in Baltimore?
I don't see it. Outside of the brief window when Gronk and the Murderer were both Top 5 options, have there been any other situations where a team had two startable TEs?
The 2019 Eagles had two startable TEs in Ertz (finished 5th in fantasy among TEs) and Goedert (finished 10th). Apart from them the Gronk/Hernandez pairing was the only other one I could find that fit the criteria.
 
Can Isaiah Likely become the third option in Baltimore?
I don't see it. Outside of the brief window when Gronk and the Murderer were both Top 5 options, have there been any other situations where a team had two startable TEs?
The 2019 Eagles had two startable TEs in Ertz (finished 5th in fantasy among TEs) and Goedert (finished 10th). Apart from them the Gronk/Hernandez pairing was the only other one I could find that fit the criteria.

2018 BAL was throwing to four different TEs, rookie Andrews was the only streamer at TE17. But it was a fascinating TE room: Nick Boyle, Maxx Williams, and Hayden Hurst finished TE48, TE57, and TE60.

2019: TE5, TE35, TE37 (sans Maxx who went to the desert.) The bottom two soaked up 80 targets and 61-670-4.

Then Hurst escaped to ATL and Boyle became injury prone. It was a run.
 
Glad Kittle is trending toward playing this week, but I kind of feel like given his fragile health, I have to hold on to Engram for now. 12-team league and I'm pretty confident he would get scooped up if I let him go
 
Can Isaiah Likely become the third option in Baltimore?
I don't see it. Outside of the brief window when Gronk and the Murderer were both Top 5 options, have there been any other situations where a team had two startable TEs?
So you're saying it's not likely.
Not only is it not likely, it's not Likely
But it would be like Likely to be likely.:loco:
 
Gerald Everett is like 3-3 on good games vs duds or limited production but I want to say that he seems to be involved on a lot of snaps. The Chargers have no problem deploying Everett and Parham on several TE sets. I think Everett is a sneaky play this week at Tight End, even in the flex for leagues that allow it and I am looking at him closely this week.

Zach Ertz continues to pay dividends.
Dawson Knox continues to float on the waiver wires in a lot of my redrafts, think he's well worth the pick up, 35/TD last week, he'll be up and down but he's just coming off injuries going back to vicious take down in Week 1, I was surprised he didn't break something on that play. He's just getting healthy and they have issues at WR all the time, injuries is what I mean vs skill set, they got plenty of talent but Knox can get 30-40 and a TD just eating the bread crumbs in this offense.
587/9TDs a year ago, he's TD dependent but he's likely to hit a TD 2-3x in the next 4 weeks with Jets Vikes and Browns as some of the better match ups for him. On a bye week this week so nobody will grab him, makes an excellent TE2 if you have that kind of roster and flexibility. Some leagues you see teams only carry 1 TE like they do at QB.
 
Last 4 Weeks:

Route Data
NameTeamRoute %Blocking %RoutesSnapsTargets
Greg DulcichDEN60.28.410016612
Dawson KnoxBUF59.46.79816515
T.J. HockensonMIN57.813.99616625
Travis KelceKC61.416.39415325
Foster MoreauLV46.511.09320014
Evan EngramJAX66.78.6701055
Dalton SchultzDAL42.313.56916317
Pat FreiermuthPIT68.34.06910119
Mark AndrewsBAL57.64.26811815
Jordan AkinsHOU77.09.2678711
 
Two guys I likes as possible streamers this week both play in the same game. Logan Thomas vs a NYG team who is bad vs TE and Daniel Bellinger for a NYG team desperate for receiving options.
 
Two guys I likes as possible streamers this week both play in the same game. Logan Thomas vs a NYG team who is bad vs TE and Daniel Bellinger for a NYG team desperate for receiving options.

Logan was losing targets to John Bates last week. He ran 119 routes the first 4 games (29.8 /g.) Since returning from injury, he's run 94 in 5 g, average of 18.8.

Like the Bellinger call, he seems to have good chemistry with Jones. But the BAL game was the only time this season he's run more than 17 routes but some of the peripherals are good. Low ADOT but he does have decent YAC numbers (6.5) and he was targeted on 24.2% of his routes run Weeks 3-6. If his snap count resembles how they used him versus the Ravens he might have a good stretch run.
 
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So I don’t need to read this entire thread, is there a TLDR version of what we’re looking for here? I assume highest % of route running is the first/min indicator of fantasy success, and then # of snaps?

ETA : duh. Down to targets I guess at the end of the day. But there must be more?
 
Doing this again?
Great work

Probably not.

It was somewhat interesting but the overall ROI wasn't worth amount of work It took to pull data from several sites each week. Route participation (Route Run/snaps) and blocking percentage (pass protection snaps/passing down snaps) are important things to a consider for TEs, but the predictive value is lacking. It was frustrating to come to the realization the effort I put into it didn't help myself or anyone relying upon it.

I have a premium sub at PFF this year and might choose to pull something together - the data I need will be marginally easier to pull - but it's not a priority. At the moment I'm doing deep dives into all 32 teams and building season long projections. If I do revisit this uncover a more robust TE methodology that appears to be more predictive I will happily publish it.
 
I said I wasn't gonna do it this year, yet here we are. Finally found a resource that would give me the data I wanted in a flat file.

I still don't have any strong evidence this data is predictive. It's interesting to nerd out on, but does it help us win championships? IDK. Then again, lots of nerdy people in TSP so I think it will be well received.


Having a Top TE is an awesome advantage. The annual problem is not screwing up your foundational roster build by taking a TE too early. I got lucky this year, my backup was Sam LaPorta. Value play of the year. Even I, biggest Lions fanatic here, had no idea he'd be this good.

However, I do strongly believe the same basic tenets for what makes an elite TE in FF still hold true.
  • TWO paths to finishing as a TE1 through TE5:
    • 90 or more targets
    • 10 or more touchdowns
    • That’s it. You either get 90+ targets. Or you get 10+ touchdowns. How do e know that? Well, every top five PPR tight end going back to Randy McMichael in 2003 has had either 90+ targets, 10+ touchdowns, or both. ONE exception: 2020 Mark Andrews who finished as TE5 with 88 targets and seven touchdowns. While missing two games with COVID. Andrews would have gotten those two targets had he not gotten sick. From our sample size of 100 tight ends that finished top five, here is the distribution of how they got there.

      Under 10 TDsOver 10 TDs
      Under 90 Targets07
      Over 90 Targets7320

      Of those 100 tight ends, over the last 20 years, only sevenof them got there by having double-digit touchdowns with less than 90 targets. Last year the banged up George Kittle pulled it off.
  • MUST be a Top 2 target on his own team- there are exceptions once or twice a decade
  • RUN at least 25 routes per game (technically it's more like 22-23 but rounding up for margin of error.)
  • ALIGNMENT - line up the majority of snaps in the Slot or Wide; TEs who spend the majority of their snaps iNLINE are there bc they block well and will be more likely to chip or pass block instead of running routes.
  • PASS BLOCKING - stay in to block less than 7.5% of the time (there are exceptions, this one is the least sticky)
  • MAN COVERAGE - all NFL tight ends can (presumably) catch the ball when they are schemed open and no one is covering them, Most NFL tight ends can find the soft spot in a zone, sit down, turn, catch, fall down. Elite TEs can win in man to man. It’s a crucial skill and they need it to even get the opportunity to line up in the slot or at wide receiver.

Tight ends sorted by targets; Top 30 with 19 or more through Week 10.

PLAYERTEAMGTRECCOMP %YARDSYPRLgTDADoTYACYAC /RECCCTCCCC %DRDR %FDFUMMTFPASS SNAPSRRROUTE %YPRRPASS BLKPBLK %SLOTSLOT %WIDEWIDE %INLINEINLINE %NFL PRtng
T.J. HockensonMIN9786076.9%5489.12936.62293.816531.3%57.7311635631889.3%1.72205.6%12936.2%4211.8%18552.0%102.9
Travis KelceKC8705781.4%59710.55347.02744.812433.3%23.4300627124690.8%2.4393.3%14051.7%5620.7%7025.8%109.3
Evan EngramJAX8595186.4%4428.73404.02965.84375.0%11.9192817113981.3%3.181911.1%5331.0%2414.0%8952.0%121.2
Sam LaPortaDET8594372.9%43410.14546.91824.210770.0%48.5220527924688.2%1.76259.0%7670.0%7025.1%13247.3%116.1
Mark AndrewsBLT8554174.5%47711.63867.91874.67342.9%48.9250627225192.3%1.9072.6%22080.9%248.8%269.6%136.7
Dallas GoedertPHI9523873.1%41010.84925.32235.98450.0%25.0230733530691.3%1.34133.9%17251.3%3610.7%12637.6%92.6
Kyle PittsATL9503264.0%38912.239111.7882.813538.5%13.0200227526094.5%1.5031.1%17162.2%7226.2%3211.6%86.2
Darren WallerNYG8503672.0%38310.62708.11484.113430.8%00.0180128425088.0%1.53196.7%14551.1%5820.4%7927.8%84.0
Cole KmetCHI9494183.7%3749.12356.21613.94125.0%30.0221328924685.1%1.523411.8%14550.2%238.0%11740.5%115.5
Dalton SchultzHST8473370.2%45013.63147.61544.74125.0%410.8191425922787.6%1.98176.6%10339.8%2911.2%12146.7%111.1
 
PLAYERTEAMGTRECCOMP %YARDSYPRLgTDADoTYACYAC /RECCCTCCCC %DRDR %FDFUMMTFPASS SNAPSRRROUTE %YPRRPASS BLKPBLK %SLOTSLOT %WIDEWIDE %INLINEINLINE %NFL PRtng
Logan ThomasWAS8453373.3%3119.42736.91544.712433.3%25.7151231227788.8%1.12227.1%15750.3%8727.9%6821.8%114.2
Dalton KincaidBUF8444090.9%3398.52214.41734.34250.0%00.0161726124493.5%1.3910.4%14354.8%5219.9%6123.4%96.9
David NjokuCLV8433274.4%31910.04123.32678.36466.7%00.0131928924083.0%1.332910.0%10937.7%269.0%15152.2%100.8
Zach ErtzARZ7422764.3%1876.91717.0511.97342.9%412.980020318691.6%1.0131.5%11154.7%2512.3%6733.0%62.3
Jonnu SmithATL9423481.0%42212.46026.42657.85480.0%25.6191925721784.4%1.942810.9%14154.9%3312.8%7228.0%114.5
Jake FergusonDAL8423276.2%32810.34036.01745.49333.3%38.6170825222488.9%1.46156.0%10039.7%239.1%12750.4%121.9
George KittleSF8423276.2%44313.83839.61785.66350.0%411.1200626122184.7%2.00228.4%7930.3%166.1%16262.1%133,3
Hunter HenryNE9412765.9%27710.32139.5592.211654.5%26.9180027424790.1%1.12134.7%14151.5%217.7%11140.5%99.3
Tyler HigbeeLA9402665.0%28611.03397.61104.28450.0%310.3140034329886.9%0.96277.9%9828.6%5716.6%18854.8%86.0
Trey McBrideARZ9392871.8%28710.32716.91264.56466.7%26.7140316814787.5%1.9595.4%7041.7%127.1%7846.4%79.8
 
PLAYERTEAMGTRECCOMP %YARDSYPRLgTDADoTYACYAC /RECCCTCCCC %DRDR %FDFUMMTFPASS SNAPSRRROUTE %YPRRPASS BLKPBLK %SLOTSLOT %WIDEWIDE %INLINEINLINE %NFL PRtng
Cade OttonTB8382873.7%2458.82436.31144.16233.3%13.4121232126783.2%0.92319.7%12839.9%5416.8%13140.8%105.7
Chigoziem OkonkwoTEN8352468.6%1737.22007.2793.37342.9%311.180424219982.2%0.872510.3%12652.1%2711.2%7129.3%67.9
Luke MusgraveGB82027135.0%2499.23716.51415.23133.3%13.6100223820686.6%1.21239.7%9841.2%187.6%12150.8%105.5
Tyler ConklinNYJ82026130.0%29311.33707.51204.67571.4%00.0100124221789.7%1.35145.8%13756.6%239.5%8233.9%103.7
Dawson KnoxBUF7191578.9%1026.81517.2624.1500.0%316.770120517484.9%0.59188.8%8842.9%3316.1%7637.1%45.6
Kylen GransonIND7191684.2%17010.64517.5734.62150.0%211.1110018216992.9%1.0131.6%9250.5%2011.0%6636.3%90.0
Hayden HurstCAR8191684.2%17010.64818.5644.04250.0%15.970222119990.0%0.8552.3%9844.3%4018.1%8237.1%61.4
Mike GesickiNE91919100.0%1598.41819.7613.25360.0%00.080020619695.1%0.8121.0%15273.8%3617.5%188.7%101.3
Gerald EverettLAC71921110.5%1678.02923.51145.4100.0%14.51321217113981.3%1.201911.1%5331.0%2414.0%8952.0%121.2
Taysom HillNO91920105.3%1427.11915.8623.13133.3%00.040217515387.4%0.9331.7%8649.1%4123.4%3117.7%105.2
 
KEYGgames playedLglongest receptionDRon target dropsRRroutes run on passing snapsSLOT snaps line up as slot WR
TtargetsADoTaverage depth of targetDR %on target passes droppedRoute %route participation of all passing snapsSLOT %percentage of snaps in slot
RECreceptionsYACyards after catchFDfirst downsYPRRyards per route runWIDEsnaps lined up as wide receiver
COMP %completion percentageCCcontested catchesFUMfumblesPASS BLKpass block snapsWIDE %percentage of snaps on boundary
YPRyards per receptionCCTcontested targetsMTFmissed tackles forcedPBLK %% of pass block snapsINLINEsnaps lined up as inline TE
CC %contested throws completedper passing snap playedINLINE %percentage of snaps lined up next to OT
NFL PRtngpasser rating when targeted
 
Posts I'll try to get to later this week:
  • TE Receiving vs Scheme (stats v man + stats v zone)
  • TE data from Slot WR alignment
  • TE data from Receiving Depth (Deep 20+, Intermediate 10-19, Short 0-9, Behind LOS)
  • NOT going to bother pulling RZ stats as that is widely available, and it's not in the flat files I have. Would have to manually input data from other resources - too much of a time suck.
LMK if Top 30 covers all the fantasy relevant TEs (I think it does but LMK if you view it differently.) Irv Smith, Juwan Johnson, Michael Mayer didn't make the cut. Nor did handcuff TEs who are sure to be productive if the stud has an injury (Noah Gray, Isaiah Likely.)
 
Great stuff again, Bobby (y) This is how you find gems at a very tough position to navigate.

As a Kincaid owner, I didn't realize how much he was pass blocking - that's gotta stop for us FF owners.

And love the Randy McMichael call out - haven't heard that guy's name in probably 15 years.
 
Thanks Bobby.. great info. I think your Musgrave and Conklin targets and receptions are swapped in the first table. You got them catching more balls then they had targets… just noticed. Same for Everett and Taysom Hill.
 
Thanks Bobby.. great info. I think your Musgrave and Conklin targets and receptions are swapped in the first table. You got them catching more balls then they had targets… just noticed. Same for Everett and Taysom Hill.

Thanks

I’ll see about correcting it when I get home. I was sent a flat file that I realized - after I imported & stated stripping out the TE days - was partially updated. I had to go through & manually input a couple columns, not surprised to hear there are errors; was dog tired last night. Got a corrected file today so I’ll check the data against that when I get home.

I have target & alignment data for all positions. Might do a WR thread and RB thread. Or I could make this one thread a repository for all, but that seems unwieldy.

edit

NARRATOR He did not make the corrections he promised; in fact, he was never seen again.

Maybe Friday guys busy af week
 
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