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TE draft strategy (1 Viewer)

ignatiusjreilly

ignatiusjreilly

Footballguy
In recent years, there was a strategy for drafting TEs created by an analyst at a FBG competitor that we frequently discussed here (but never linked to). This year, the entire series has been moved behind that site's paywall, rendering the linking question moot. But even if we don't have access to that particular analyst's recommendations, we can pretty much reconstruct it ourselves to identify TEs to target.

The two main things to look at when identifying top TEs are:
  • Are they likely be be first or second on their team in targets?
  • Do they stay in to block on less than 15% of their team's pass plays
(There were other criteria like ADOT and how often they line up at WR, but they weren't as determinative as the first two).

Then when it comes to drafting, you either pay up for the top guys or you wait and then pair relatively safe options with higher upside guys.

So put it all together and what does it mean for 2024? I don't know, I haven't done all the research yet. But just in terms of Top 2 on their team in targets, there are a few mid/late round guys who are jumping out at me:
  • Njoku: only real competition for targets behind Cooper is Jeudy. I like DN's odds
  • Ferguson: Replace "Cooper" with "Lamb" and "Jeudy" with "Brandin Cooks". Then re-read the sentence above
  • Pitts: I mean, I don't trust him. But it's down to him vs Bijan for second-most targets
  • Kincaid: Kind of ambiguous receiver room, but I could easily see him leading the team in targets
  • Freiermuth: Don't love him overall, but in terms of targets, who do they have besides Pickens?
  • Henry: Who else are they throwing it to?
  • Hock: Obviously you have to stash him for awhile, but if he comes back strong he'll be challenging Addison for Top 2
Guys I would be fading based on likely target share:
  • Schultz -- incredibly crowded receiver room
  • Musgrave -- ditto
  • Kmet -- megaditto
  • Goedert: The effect that he and DSmith have on each other's target share is well documented
  • Jonnu -- if you draft him, you're basically praying for a Tyreek/Waddle injury
  • Bowers -- not sure I see him outtargeting Meyers. And LaPorta aside, I still don't like going after rookie TEs
Now, in terms of how this will play out in my actual drafts, in my mocks my strategy has mostly been consider McBride or Andrews in the 4th/5th, Kittle in the 5th/6th and then aim for the Ferguson/Njoku tier. The one I can't make up my mind on is Engram. Last year he managed to be a top TE despite fighting Ridley and Kirk for target share. This year that will be Kirk and Brian Thomas. So maybe he does still have a good chance. But something about last year's performance felt unsustainable
 
I like Coop but that site I dislike a lot. Was the only thing I ever read there.

I think the Henry take is off - couldn't we have asked the same question every year in NE? Don't think he competes for tops in targets.

My real strategy is "draft Ferguson he's wildly undervalued" btu I wonder if Njoku is too.

Kittle is also an interesting fade, but he's always broken the rules of this with mega efficiency.
 
Instinctive said:
I like Coop but that site I dislike a lot. Was the only thing I ever read there.
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Same

Instinctive said:
I think the Henry take is off - couldn't we have asked the same question every year in NE? Don't think he competes for tops in targets.

My real strategy is "draft Ferguson he's wildly undervalued" btu I wonder if Njoku is too.

Kittle is also an interesting fade, but he's always broken the rules of this with mega efficiency.
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Yeah, not sure how I feel about Henry. He was decent for stretches last year, but if the goal is to find TE6 or better production, not sure if he's worth an investment

I was way down on Kittle last year, but I've reversed course somewhat this year. He's obviously uber-talented, and yes, he's the one TE who can still be productive despite blocking a lot. I also just think there may be some upheaval in SF this year, and whatever the odds are for combined Aiyuk/Deebo games, I'm taking the under.

Was targeting Ferguson in a draft last night but ended up with Njoku. I think I'm OK with it (other than having to root for Watson)
 
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I'm locked in on McBride, Andrews, Kincaid in rounds 4 and 5. Period.

I think all these guys could end up being the #1 TE.

And if you miss on that tier, there's a slippery slope where all of a sudden you miss out on Kittle, Pitts, Engram, Fergasun, Njoku it seems.

I'm locking it up somewhat early. I'm confident in those guys and don't want to be scrambling late for T. Hill.
 
I am pretty comfortable taking any of top 8 tight ends this season. I think you can make a legit case for any of them to finish as TE 1 overall and I think you can make a legit bust case for all of them.

If I miss out on all of them, then I am taking 2 or 3 guys from Musgrave or later and hoping I find a diamond in the rough.
 
msudaisy26 said:
I am pretty comfortable taking any of top 8 tight ends this season. I think you can make a legit case for any of them to finish as TE 1 overall and I think you can make a legit bust case for all of them.

If I miss out on all of them, then I am taking 2 or 3 guys from Musgrave or later and hoping I find a diamond in the rough.
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Same. Tonight I did my last NFFC rotowire draft. Typically Kelce & LaPorta go late 2nd, early 3rd. Then a run in the 4th, and I'm usually catching the tail end with a Pitts or Kittle in the 5th or Ferguson in the 6th

This one was bananas.

Kelce 4.10
LaPorta 4.11
McBride (Me) 5.07
Kincaid 6.05
Andrews 6.06
Pitts 6.09
Engram 7.02
Kittle 7.06
Ferguson 7.11
Njoku 8.03

I am still not sure why I passed on LaPorta in the 4.06 spot - mostly because teams 7-12 were thin at RB, and KWIII made it to 4.06

When teams 10-11 went TE-TE my heart sunk, thinking "well, there's the run. Crap!" Could not believe McBride made it to 5.07 - Sometimes drafts get weird. This was one of them.

In my home league on Sat I'm fully targeting that Kincaid-Andrews-Pitts-Kittle-Engram tier. In most of my drafts so far, those 5 guys go within about 15 picks of each other. If I miss them, I'm praying for Ferguson. And if I miss him, I'm holding my nose and taking Njoku, or going Hock + Otton or Henry or Juwon late.
 
ignatiusjreilly said:
Yeah, not sure how I feel about Henry. He was decent for stretches last year, but if the goal is to find TE6 or better production, not sure if he's worth an investment
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I got him 3rd to last round tonight. He returned to practice, and a good TE is a rookie QBs best friend, or so the story goes. If he's your backup, you only really need him for a week unless it's TE-P & you're gonna flex him.
 
Sleeper - Mike Gesicki - Cincinnati Bengals
Dude went over 700 yds receiving in '20 and '21, then fell out of favor with the new HC and then was in New England last season
6th different starting QB in 5-6 years for Mike, finally paired with a true franchise QB
We've seen other guys have their best seasons at TE for the Bengals in recent years, Gesicki might be the next one to experience some success.
He is starting but does not block very well so i think they will use him more in passing situations
 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
msudaisy26 said:
I am pretty comfortable taking any of top 8 tight ends this season. I think you can make a legit case for any of them to finish as TE 1 overall and I think you can make a legit bust case for all of them.

If I miss out on all of them, then I am taking 2 or 3 guys from Musgrave or later and hoping I find a diamond in the rough.
Click to expand...
Same. Tonight I did my last NFFC rotowire draft. Typically Kelce & LaPorta go late 2nd, early 3rd. Then a run in the 4th, and I'm usually catching the tail end with a Pitts or Kittle in the 5th or Ferguson in the 6th

This one was bananas.

Kelce 4.10
LaPorta 4.11
McBride (Me) 5.07
Kincaid 6.05
Andrews 6.06
Pitts 6.09
Engram 7.02
Kittle 7.06
Ferguson 7.11
Njoku 8.03

I am still not sure why I passed on LaPorta in the 4.06 spot - mostly because teams 7-12 were thin at RB, and KWIII made it to 4.06

When teams 10-11 went TE-TE my heart sunk, thinking "well, there's the run. Crap!" Could not believe McBride made it to 5.07 - Sometimes drafts get weird. This was one of them.

In my home league on Sat I'm fully targeting that Kincaid-Andrews-Pitts-Kittle-Engram tier. In most of my drafts so far, those 5 guys go within about 15 picks of each other. If I miss them, I'm praying for Ferguson. And if I miss him, I'm holding my nose and taking Njoku, or going Hock + Otton or Henry or Juwon late.
Click to expand...
I'm not leaving drafts with one of those three.
 
Ministry of Pain said:
Sleeper - Mike Gesicki - Cincinnati Bengals
Dude went over 700 yds receiving in '20 and '21, then fell out of favor with the new HC and then was in New England last season
6th different starting QB in 5-6 years for Mike, finally paired with a true franchise QB
We've seen other guys have their best seasons at TE for the Bengals in recent years, Gesicki might be the next one to experience some success.
He is starting but does not block very well so i think they will use him more in passing situations
Click to expand...
"Their best season" <> "Good fantasy season".

I've seen no evidence that Taylor/Burrow have a particularly TE-friendly offense. And MG has zero chance of being Top 2 in targets
 
kyoun1e said:
Hot Sauce Guy said:
msudaisy26 said:
I am pretty comfortable taking any of top 8 tight ends this season. I think you can make a legit case for any of them to finish as TE 1 overall and I think you can make a legit bust case for all of them.

If I miss out on all of them, then I am taking 2 or 3 guys from Musgrave or later and hoping I find a diamond in the rough.
Click to expand...
Same. Tonight I did my last NFFC rotowire draft. Typically Kelce & LaPorta go late 2nd, early 3rd. Then a run in the 4th, and I'm usually catching the tail end with a Pitts or Kittle in the 5th or Ferguson in the 6th

This one was bananas.

Kelce 4.10
LaPorta 4.11
McBride (Me) 5.07
Kincaid 6.05
Andrews 6.06
Pitts 6.09
Engram 7.02
Kittle 7.06
Ferguson 7.11
Njoku 8.03

I am still not sure why I passed on LaPorta in the 4.06 spot - mostly because teams 7-12 were thin at RB, and KWIII made it to 4.06

When teams 10-11 went TE-TE my heart sunk, thinking "well, there's the run. Crap!" Could not believe McBride made it to 5.07 - Sometimes drafts get weird. This was one of them.

In my home league on Sat I'm fully targeting that Kincaid-Andrews-Pitts-Kittle-Engram tier. In most of my drafts so far, those 5 guys go within about 15 picks of each other. If I miss them, I'm praying for Ferguson. And if I miss him, I'm holding my nose and taking Njoku, or going Hock + Otton or Henry or Juwon late.
Click to expand...
I'm not leaving drafts with one of those three.
Click to expand...
Also, Protip: DO NOT use that list for ADP. To say that’s atypical of every draft I’ve done would be a wild understatement.
 
kyoun1e said:
I'm locked in on McBride, Andrews, Kincaid in rounds 4 and 5. Period.

I think all these guys could end up being the #1 TE.

And if you miss on that tier, there's a slippery slope where all of a sudden you miss out on Kittle, Pitts, Engram, Fergasun, Njoku it seems.

I'm locking it up somewhat early. I'm confident in those guys and don't want to be scrambling late for T. Hill.
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I get the logic, but targeting the mid-round TEs is mostly what I've done in recent years and it hasn't really worked out for me.

2021: Hock/Pitts
2022: Kittle
2023: Andrews

Only TE success I've had was when I took SLP very late last year. I also think that the RBs/WRs you're missing out on in the 4-6 range represent a huge opportunity cost., especially this year
 
ignatiusjreilly said:
Ministry of Pain said:
Sleeper - Mike Gesicki - Cincinnati Bengals
Dude went over 700 yds receiving in '20 and '21, then fell out of favor with the new HC and then was in New England last season
6th different starting QB in 5-6 years for Mike, finally paired with a true franchise QB
We've seen other guys have their best seasons at TE for the Bengals in recent years, Gesicki might be the next one to experience some success.
He is starting but does not block very well so i think they will use him more in passing situations
Click to expand...
"Their best season" <> "Good fantasy season".

I've seen no evidence that Taylor/Burrow have a particularly TE-friendly offense. And MG has zero chance of being Top 2 in targets
Click to expand...
53/700/6TD...if he can beat that his career year would be pretty decent for most GMs
73/780/2 was another season total, this actually might be more in PPR

His resume is better than Uzomah and Hayden Hurst
He's undrafted in many leagues, sleeper IMO

He might stay sleeping, that's possible but I think he's worth a look
What are the Bengals running out at WR3? Gesicki lines up in the slot a lot and has Chase plus Higgins taking coverage away from him
My guess is he might be wide open sometimes
 
ignatiusjreilly said:
Paging @BobbyLayne: I seem to recall you doing some of the research on this stuff that I'm too lazy to do
Click to expand...

:shrug:

I punted TE this year then drafted Bowers as TE11 off the board and Likely as TE20. Does that look like a guy who knows what he is doing?

(league drafted 21 TEs....18 round redraft w/ mandatory TE + WR/RB/TE Flex and 6 bench spots)


WRT my deep dive TE research a few years ago, it was a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury signifying nothing.

I wasn't able to come up with anything sticky (predictive), but agree with Andrew's general guidelines.
  • More snaps in the Slot and Wide tend to yield higher value targets
  • inline guys rarely end up TE1 unless they have an insane efficiency and get lucky on the TD rate (Robert Tonyan circa 2020 - and his 3 TD game was vs 3rd/4th stringers)
  • Top 2 target on their own team
  • Stays into block less than X % of the passing snaps.
But the latter stat is garbage...15%? That only eliminates 4 TEs (Bellinger, Hooper, Mayer, Smythe ). 7% or higher? 24 of those, and it includes Kittle, Kmet, LaPorta, Njoku and Schultz, e.g., half of the Top Ten.

It's nice to know you need either:
  • 90-95 targets, or
  • double digit TDs
Every Top 5 TE of the last 20+ years had one or the other, and the latter has high variance year over year. LaPorta had 10, five guys had 6, five guys had 5. GLWT

But even targets becomes less useful because you cannot legislate usage. Coaches gonna coach, ya know (looking at you, Arthur Smith.)

Take a Top 5 (Kelce, LaPorta, Andrews, McBride, Kincaid) or throw some darts is my advice.

Last year I drafted Kincaid and after Week 1 traded him for LaPorta. Also had Njoku. So that was nice.

This year? Guess I am streaming.
 
I’m thinking of doing the crazy strategy of punting the TE position and drafting hockensen late, putting him IR and snagging Taysom hill as a worst resort if there’s no goood TE value left.
 
Banger said:
I’m thinking of doing the crazy strategy of punting the TE position and drafting hockensen late, putting him IR and snagging Taysom hill as a worst resort if there’s no goood TE value left.
Click to expand...
It’s pretty risky. If you miss Hock you’re hosed. And I’ve seen people snipe Hock after going elite TE just to hose the team that’s sitting on that strategy. Taysom Hill too.

I love the Hill/Hock strategy, but if you miss, your TEs will be Juwon/Otton or Otton/Henry or some such.

Personally, I’d reserve the Hock strategy for if you end up with NJoku. But if you can pull it off, I agree it can present an advantage.
 
Banger said:
I’m thinking of doing the crazy strategy of punting the TE position and drafting hockensen late, putting him IR and snagging Taysom hill as a worst resort if there’s no goood TE value left.
Click to expand...
Just wrapped up a big TEP draft tonight and got skunked at TE. I would like to stress it was not a plan, at all, was ready to pounce a few times but they kept just going out of my reach.

IR is not an option in these leagues and Taysom is a QB.

But I thought that Zach Ertz, who is close to free even in TEP leagues, made a nice compliment to Hockenson. At least in a league were you get 2 points if you catch a 5 yard curl and fall down, Ertz might be one of those strong out of the gate types due to target comp. Just FYI as a non-Taysom option pairing.
 
menobrown said:
But I thought that Zach Ertz, who is close to free even in TEP leagues, made a nice compliment to Hockenson. At least in a league were you get 2 points if you catch a 5 yard curl and fall down, Ertz might be one of those strong out of the gate types due to target comp. Just FYI as a non-Taysom option pairing.
Click to expand...
You need to hope Sinnott hasn’t impressed too much in camp. If you can get both, even better. Ertz is gettin up there in years.

ETA: yikes
 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
menobrown said:
But I thought that Zach Ertz, who is close to free even in TEP leagues, made a nice compliment to Hockenson. At least in a league were you get 2 points if you catch a 5 yard curl and fall down, Ertz might be one of those strong out of the gate types due to target comp. Just FYI as a non-Taysom option pairing.
Click to expand...
You need to hope Sinnott hasn’t impressed too much in camp. If you can get both, even better. Ertz is gettin up there in years.

ETA: yikes
Click to expand...
Honestly have zero concerns on the TE pecking order in Washington, at least not for the early weeks.
 
menobrown said:
He went about 5 rds before I took Ertz. Which might be fine if a high upside shot for production later in the year is the goal.
Click to expand...
If I punt TE I’m filling all this away as a fallback.

That said, this is the 1st year in a long time I’m determined to not fall out of the top 6-7.
 
I drafted Mike Gesicki in a league for the exact same reasons that MOP outlined. I have Hock and Ferg but he's worth a last round flyer I think. nothing much to add except that I generally agree with the OP but I don't think Kincaid will be #1 on his team.
 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
menobrown said:
But I thought that Zach Ertz, who is close to free even in TEP leagues, made a nice compliment to Hockenson. At least in a league were you get 2 points if you catch a 5 yard curl and fall down, Ertz might be one of those strong out of the gate types due to target comp. Just FYI as a non-Taysom option pairing.
Click to expand...
You need to hope Sinnott hasn’t impressed too much in camp. If you can get both, even better. Ertz is gettin up there in years.

ETA: yikes
Click to expand...
I live in fear that someone will publish a similar injury chart about me
 
ignatiusjreilly said:
kyoun1e said:
I'm locked in on McBride, Andrews, Kincaid in rounds 4 and 5. Period.

I think all these guys could end up being the #1 TE.

And if you miss on that tier, there's a slippery slope where all of a sudden you miss out on Kittle, Pitts, Engram, Fergasun, Njoku it seems.

I'm locking it up somewhat early. I'm confident in those guys and don't want to be scrambling late for T. Hill.
Click to expand...
I get the logic, but targeting the mid-round TEs is mostly what I've done in recent years and it hasn't really worked out for me.

2021: Hock/Pitts
2022: Kittle
2023: Andrews

Only TE success I've had was when I took SLP very late last year. I also think that the RBs/WRs you're missing out on in the 4-6 range represent a huge opportunity cost., especially this year
Click to expand...
As someone who took Kelce last year in the first round of like every league, taking a TE this year in round 4 or 5 feels late. Lol.

I feel good about any of Andrews, McBride, Kincaid. Each have a legit chance of being #1 TE. Andrews back healthy...McBride was on fire last year and now Murray is another year removed from injury and another weapon (Harrison) to open holes in the D...Kincaid could be the #1 target in Buffalo (be damned Knox).

Only other target I'm interested after this tier is Ferguson, but I keep getting sniped.
 
Banger said:
I’m thinking of doing the crazy strategy of punting the TE position and drafting hockensen late, putting him IR and snagging Taysom hill as a worst resort if there’s no goood TE value left.
Click to expand...
This may be my break glass in case of emergency if I totally snap during drafts this week and miss out on my Andrews/McBride/Kincaid tier even though I keep saying I'm not.
 
If any of you think you're going to be sneaky and grab Tayom late, you'll be in for a big surprise.

You're not the only one thinking that. He goes far earlier than you would expect.
 
I think this thread is sleeping on 2 TE prospects that could crack bottom TE1/mid TE2 value, and offer good platoon TE rotations.

Tyler Conklin NYJ - We all know Rodgers appreciates quality receiving targets. After Watson, Mike Williams might not be his type of WR and offers Conklin valuable target share. NYJ Offense could be a Top 12 Offense in Yards/Scoring and Conklin offers value to A Rodgers.

Noah Fant Sea - Seattle has a new OC and is looking at more distribution of targets. 26 yo Fant was a 1st round pick in 2019 and has shown athleticism and effort this preseason. Camp reports indicated his talent is showing and offers valuable options to Geno to take advantage of his talent

For me, Jake Ferguson Dal is a solid TE1 value due to targets available and expected more passing due to weak RB room.
 
Birdie048 said:
I think this thread is sleeping on 2 TE prospects that could crack bottom TE1/mid TE2 value, and offer good platoon TE rotations.

Tyler Conklin NYJ - We all know Rodgers appreciates quality receiving targets. After Watson, Mike Williams might not be his type of WR and offers Conklin valuable target share. NYJ Offense could be a Top 12 Offense in Yards/Scoring and Conklin offers value to A Rodgers.

Noah Fant Sea - Seattle has a new OC and is looking at more distribution of targets. 26 yo Fant was a 1st round pick in 2019 and has shown athleticism and effort this preseason. Camp reports indicated his talent is showing and offers valuable options to Geno to take advantage of his talent

For me, Jake Ferguson Dal is a solid TE1 value due to targets available and expected more passing due to weak RB room.
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Good post. Fant is one of my favorite late TE targets. Can be had for practically nothing. Ferguson is my favorite TE target if I miss out on the top players at the position, and can sometimes be had after Pitts, Engram, Kittle, and Njoku as well.
 
i've been paying the 3rd round of cost of kelce or laporta often. if i strike out there i usually wait for ferguson unless other mid-tier guys drop like engram does sometimes. i also just punt sometimes and take goedert late. goedert seems like last of the line safe to me. prolly catches a ton of passes though prolly not many tds
 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
farfromforgotten said:
Fant is one of my favorite late TE targets
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Same. I snuck him into a trade coming back to me this offseason in a TE-P league as a “balancing piece”. Super happy if he hits. The talent is there and now his competition is not. Plus his OC likes move TE.
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Fant or Friermuth? Or Jonnu Smith? I kept drafting for value on Sunday and ended up with Friermuth (14 team redraft). Keep hearing Washington will be on the field because of his blocking so a bit concerned. But other than Pickens, they don’t have much else in the receiving game.
 
efactor said:
Fant or Friermuth? Or Jonnu Smith? I kept drafting for value on Sunday and ended up with Friermuth (14 team redraft). Keep hearing Washington will be on the field because of his blocking so a bit concerned. But other than Pickens, they don’t have much else in the receiving game.
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Fant.

I have it Fant ~> Smith ~> Mouth

I tried to pay a 1st for ‘Mouth in a TE-P format before last season. Thankfully for me, the owner harshly rejected it. lol

Mostly I want no part of that receiving offense under Wilson. I have a share of Warren, but good RB can eat on bad offenses. Even if (when) Fields takes over, he’s very hit & miss with the TE. Kmet would have a couple big games then vanish.

Love the player, hate the situation.
 
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