Note: This is my first attempt at cinching up my offseason dynasty rankings (which will get blown up by FA and the draft) - the who, where and why of them - please feel free to offer feedback, differing opinions - the point is to stimulate discussion.
Tier 1: Dallas Clark, Antonio Gates, Jason Witten - Clark is the oldest, but he's still #1 because he is showing no signs of slowing down, and he plays the most WR-like role in the best passing offense. Gates gets the slight edge over Witten because he is more of a red zone target, but they are virtually indistinguishable in PPR leagues. These are the guys who are major pieces of good passing games with top notch QBs at the helm. All have at least 2-3 good years left. The best of the best.
Tier 2: Vernon Davis, Jermichael Finley - Davis could easily be in Tier 1 by himself by mid-season, but we need to see him do it for more than one year before we get out the anointing oils (apologies to Bill Parcells). Finley has looked elite for an even shorter period of time, but he has barely scratched the surface of his potential (he turns 23 in March!), and he is in a prolific passing attack with a QB who was really leaning on him at year's end. The only thing keeping these guys out of Tier 1 is a longer track record of elite production.
Tier 3: Kellen Winslow, Zach Miller (OAK) - These guys have the skills to be Tier 1 TEs, but they are mired in remedial passing attacks. Both are great buy lows on the chance that their QBs get things together in 2010, because they are both better pass catchers than any WR on the roster.
Tier 4: Brent Celek, Chris Cooley, Heath Miller, Greg Olsen, Dustin Keller, John Carlson - All of these guys have the ability to be among the best non-elite options because of top talent or situation, but they are also otherwise held back because those with the top situations don't have top pass-catching talent, and vice versa. Celek seems to be the most stable because both McNabb and Kolb love throwing to him, and DeSean Jackson will keep that middle open for Celek. Cooley is a little overrated as he is likely past his peak and Fred Davis emerged as a viable TE target in his own right after Cooley went down. Heath Miller probably produced at his ceiling last year, and Greg Olsen near his floor, but both are likely to stay near those outer reaches of their production ranges - Pittsburgh's strength is still the pass, and Mike Martz is unkind to TEs. A patient dynasty owner could get Olsen cheap now, maybe even cheaper in September if his early numbers are as bad as Vernon Davis's were under Martz in SF. Keller is talented enough to be a lot higher on this list, but his role is limited by a quality pair of WRs and a run-first offense. Carlson may be on the best buy low options at this position. He and the Seahawks slogged through a horrible 2009, and he still managed to match his quality rookie year numbers. The long-term QB situation in Seattle is murky, but so is the WR situation, so Carlson could easily emerge as one of those TEs who is a primary target in his team's passing game.
Tony Gonzalez: In a tier all his own, and worth overpaying for if you are in a win now mode and don't have a top 10 TE or the patience to wait for Olsen/Keller/Carlson to fulfill their potential. He has two years left in the league, tops, and his age started to slightly show last year.
Tier 5: Visanthe Shiancoe, Owen Daniels: Shiancoe could be top 10 again next year if Brett Favre returns, but when Favre leaves, he drops to the backup fantasy TE ranks. A good one-year buy if you feel sure Favre will return and you need help at TE, especially in non-PPR leagues. Daniels is dicey because he lacks a long term deal, and while he was perfect for Houston's offense, he might not be as productive in another scheme. James Casey could also cut into his production if Daniels stays in Houston. Daniels is a great "put your money where your mouth is" player - if you believe in him, the price will never be lower than it is right now.
Tier 6: Jared Cook, Brandon Pettigrew - This is the swing for the fences tier. Cook has MORE physical talent than Finley if you can believe it (although he's not quite as natural a pass catcher) - top 5 is within his reach and a banged-up ankle made his rookie year look like a bust. Pettigrew has a torn ACL, but it did appear that he had receiving ability Oklahoma State criminally underutilized, and Matthew Stafford was relying on him more right before the injury. Pettigrew also has a chance to be very prominent in the Lions passing game with no #2 WR to speak of and defenses willing to triple cover Calvin Johnson.
Tier 7: Fred Davis, Kevin Boss, Tony Scheffler - Im afraid these guys have limited upside and just aren't part of the recipe of a winning fantasy team. Both are better in non-PPR as they'll never stretch the field, but they are decent red zone options. Davis has to share with Cooley and Boss has to share with a plethora of talented young wideouts. Neither one is a special talent when it comes to ripping the seams or making athletic catches. Give Davis a bump if Campbell catches on in Washington this year because the QB leaned on Davis in the red zone. Scheffler doesn't seem to fit in what Josh McDaniels is doing, and his game is so one-dimensional that you have to wonder if anyone is going to go out of their way to make him a big part of their passing game - but Scheffler is still talented enough to merit a spot just outside of the top 20.
Tier 8: Shawn Nelson, Zach Miller (JAX), James Casey, Chase Coffman, Travis Beckum, Evan Moore - The prospect tier. Ranking them is a matter of taste, here's my justification for the current order, which can change in my mind without much effort: Nelson is a natural passcatcher and the Bills need someone to work the middle of the field somethin' fierce. Miller showed great speed and athleticism in a limited role, as he learns the position he should do more, albeit in a limited passing game. I still believe in Casey, but I worry about the lack of clarity on his true home position and a lack of impact after Daniels went down. Coffman's foot still wasn't right and he is behind the curve, although opportunity is there as the Bengals don't have a true #2 WR. Beckum has been left in the dust by the Giants WRs and Kevin Boss isn't going anywhere. Moore has great ball skills, but he is in a terrible offense and his opportunity might have been by default, not earned (see also: Zach Hilton). All are worth 3rd round rookie picks from this year.
Tier 9: Jeremy Shockey, Todd Heap - These guys are the bargain basement version of Gonzo. One or two years of shelf life and decent production left.
Worth a Roster Spot in Deep Leagues: Marcedes Lewis (more talented that #s, but inconsistent and used a lot to block), David Thomas (in a sick pass offense, some chemistry with Brees, but very limited talent), Martellus Bennett (top 10 physical talent, but missed big opportunity and not a natural receiver), Dante Rosario (could be very productive on another team if he could stay healthy, better receiver than many ahead of him on this list), Cornelius Ingram (big-time talent, but tore same ACL twice), Anthony Fasano (little upside, but a decent bye week fill-in after seemingly getting back in coaches good graces), Ben Watson (top-notch physical talent, but inconsistent), Bo Scaife (role should shrink considerably this year, limited talent, but good track record), Gary Barnidge (Underrated hands and speed, but stuck in three-headed TE rotation), Delanie Walker (deserves more love, could break out on second team)
Tier 1: Dallas Clark, Antonio Gates, Jason Witten - Clark is the oldest, but he's still #1 because he is showing no signs of slowing down, and he plays the most WR-like role in the best passing offense. Gates gets the slight edge over Witten because he is more of a red zone target, but they are virtually indistinguishable in PPR leagues. These are the guys who are major pieces of good passing games with top notch QBs at the helm. All have at least 2-3 good years left. The best of the best.
Tier 2: Vernon Davis, Jermichael Finley - Davis could easily be in Tier 1 by himself by mid-season, but we need to see him do it for more than one year before we get out the anointing oils (apologies to Bill Parcells). Finley has looked elite for an even shorter period of time, but he has barely scratched the surface of his potential (he turns 23 in March!), and he is in a prolific passing attack with a QB who was really leaning on him at year's end. The only thing keeping these guys out of Tier 1 is a longer track record of elite production.
Tier 3: Kellen Winslow, Zach Miller (OAK) - These guys have the skills to be Tier 1 TEs, but they are mired in remedial passing attacks. Both are great buy lows on the chance that their QBs get things together in 2010, because they are both better pass catchers than any WR on the roster.
Tier 4: Brent Celek, Chris Cooley, Heath Miller, Greg Olsen, Dustin Keller, John Carlson - All of these guys have the ability to be among the best non-elite options because of top talent or situation, but they are also otherwise held back because those with the top situations don't have top pass-catching talent, and vice versa. Celek seems to be the most stable because both McNabb and Kolb love throwing to him, and DeSean Jackson will keep that middle open for Celek. Cooley is a little overrated as he is likely past his peak and Fred Davis emerged as a viable TE target in his own right after Cooley went down. Heath Miller probably produced at his ceiling last year, and Greg Olsen near his floor, but both are likely to stay near those outer reaches of their production ranges - Pittsburgh's strength is still the pass, and Mike Martz is unkind to TEs. A patient dynasty owner could get Olsen cheap now, maybe even cheaper in September if his early numbers are as bad as Vernon Davis's were under Martz in SF. Keller is talented enough to be a lot higher on this list, but his role is limited by a quality pair of WRs and a run-first offense. Carlson may be on the best buy low options at this position. He and the Seahawks slogged through a horrible 2009, and he still managed to match his quality rookie year numbers. The long-term QB situation in Seattle is murky, but so is the WR situation, so Carlson could easily emerge as one of those TEs who is a primary target in his team's passing game.
Tony Gonzalez: In a tier all his own, and worth overpaying for if you are in a win now mode and don't have a top 10 TE or the patience to wait for Olsen/Keller/Carlson to fulfill their potential. He has two years left in the league, tops, and his age started to slightly show last year.
Tier 5: Visanthe Shiancoe, Owen Daniels: Shiancoe could be top 10 again next year if Brett Favre returns, but when Favre leaves, he drops to the backup fantasy TE ranks. A good one-year buy if you feel sure Favre will return and you need help at TE, especially in non-PPR leagues. Daniels is dicey because he lacks a long term deal, and while he was perfect for Houston's offense, he might not be as productive in another scheme. James Casey could also cut into his production if Daniels stays in Houston. Daniels is a great "put your money where your mouth is" player - if you believe in him, the price will never be lower than it is right now.
Tier 6: Jared Cook, Brandon Pettigrew - This is the swing for the fences tier. Cook has MORE physical talent than Finley if you can believe it (although he's not quite as natural a pass catcher) - top 5 is within his reach and a banged-up ankle made his rookie year look like a bust. Pettigrew has a torn ACL, but it did appear that he had receiving ability Oklahoma State criminally underutilized, and Matthew Stafford was relying on him more right before the injury. Pettigrew also has a chance to be very prominent in the Lions passing game with no #2 WR to speak of and defenses willing to triple cover Calvin Johnson.
Tier 7: Fred Davis, Kevin Boss, Tony Scheffler - Im afraid these guys have limited upside and just aren't part of the recipe of a winning fantasy team. Both are better in non-PPR as they'll never stretch the field, but they are decent red zone options. Davis has to share with Cooley and Boss has to share with a plethora of talented young wideouts. Neither one is a special talent when it comes to ripping the seams or making athletic catches. Give Davis a bump if Campbell catches on in Washington this year because the QB leaned on Davis in the red zone. Scheffler doesn't seem to fit in what Josh McDaniels is doing, and his game is so one-dimensional that you have to wonder if anyone is going to go out of their way to make him a big part of their passing game - but Scheffler is still talented enough to merit a spot just outside of the top 20.
Tier 8: Shawn Nelson, Zach Miller (JAX), James Casey, Chase Coffman, Travis Beckum, Evan Moore - The prospect tier. Ranking them is a matter of taste, here's my justification for the current order, which can change in my mind without much effort: Nelson is a natural passcatcher and the Bills need someone to work the middle of the field somethin' fierce. Miller showed great speed and athleticism in a limited role, as he learns the position he should do more, albeit in a limited passing game. I still believe in Casey, but I worry about the lack of clarity on his true home position and a lack of impact after Daniels went down. Coffman's foot still wasn't right and he is behind the curve, although opportunity is there as the Bengals don't have a true #2 WR. Beckum has been left in the dust by the Giants WRs and Kevin Boss isn't going anywhere. Moore has great ball skills, but he is in a terrible offense and his opportunity might have been by default, not earned (see also: Zach Hilton). All are worth 3rd round rookie picks from this year.
Tier 9: Jeremy Shockey, Todd Heap - These guys are the bargain basement version of Gonzo. One or two years of shelf life and decent production left.
Worth a Roster Spot in Deep Leagues: Marcedes Lewis (more talented that #s, but inconsistent and used a lot to block), David Thomas (in a sick pass offense, some chemistry with Brees, but very limited talent), Martellus Bennett (top 10 physical talent, but missed big opportunity and not a natural receiver), Dante Rosario (could be very productive on another team if he could stay healthy, better receiver than many ahead of him on this list), Cornelius Ingram (big-time talent, but tore same ACL twice), Anthony Fasano (little upside, but a decent bye week fill-in after seemingly getting back in coaches good graces), Ben Watson (top-notch physical talent, but inconsistent), Bo Scaife (role should shrink considerably this year, limited talent, but good track record), Gary Barnidge (Underrated hands and speed, but stuck in three-headed TE rotation), Delanie Walker (deserves more love, could break out on second team)
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Plenty of personal choice here, though, there is a good argument for any of these guys to finish top 2.I think Cook deserves to be higher based on upside; I love him as a TE2 on a dynasty team. I think Pettigrew looked like he has limited upside based on athleticism, but top 10 potential. The ACL is a worry, though. Pettigrew's ranking is about right, but I think Cook is much more likely to break out, and thus should be well ahead of Pettigrew.I like Fred Davis as a dynasty TE2 as well. He looks talented enough to be a TE1, just not a top end kind of guy. I like him significantly better than Boss and Scheffler in the same tier. Cooley's return dampens Fred Davis' prospects for now.I like Nelson and Z.Miller (Jax) to leap above Boss/Scheffler/Pettigrew based on upside as well, though we are getting into lower TE2s or TE3s here, so it is a pick your poison type of situation. Great list and very sound logic behind the rankings, Sig. 
