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TE Greg Olsen in for a big season? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Garts
- Start date
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
alot of talk about this. Makes me think it wont happen. top 10 is probably a lock. Top 5 is iffy IMO
Hester to me is in the best position to have a large uptick in production probably a servicable WR2/3 this season
Maybe Earl Bennett/a rookie can step up as well.
Cutler seemed to spread the wealthy but I dont think he will nearly throw the ball as much as he used to
Hester to me is in the best position to have a large uptick in production probably a servicable WR2/3 this season
Maybe Earl Bennett/a rookie can step up as well.
Cutler seemed to spread the wealthy but I dont think he will nearly throw the ball as much as he used to
Lott's Fingertip
Footballguy
Players I would take before Olsen:
Witten - top 5 lock
Gates - top 5 if healthy
Gonzo - seems to be in a great situation in ATL, top 5
Winslow - not a lock, especially with his health, but should get plenty of targets
Dallas Clark - #2 receiver of Peyton....
Daniels - yardage beast with top 5 upside if he catches some TDs
Cooley - always a good bet for top 6
Players I would take around the same time as Olsen:
Keller - getting a bigger piece of the pie with Coles gone
Carlson - I like Olsen better... Carlson is solid, but may have benefitted from the inexplicable amount of WR injuries in Seattle.
Z.Miller - similar chance of succes as Olsen, but I like Olsen's phycical attributes better
Shockey - playing healthy in a top 3 passing offense, but is always an injury risk
~~~~~~
Those are the only guys that have a reasonable shot at top 5 TE, imo. I like Olsen and Keller best of that 2nd group, and Olsen has the better QB, so I probably draft Olsen around TE8.
I think Olsen has to beat out 3 of Winslow, Clark, Cooley and Daniels to get to top 5. I doubt he beats out Clark due to Clark's situation. Winslow has stud TE abilities, so I think only an injury let's Olsen pass him. Daniels and Cooley can be reasonably passed by Olsen.
Still puts him at TE6 at best, imo. Barring injury, of course.
Witten - top 5 lock
Gates - top 5 if healthy
Gonzo - seems to be in a great situation in ATL, top 5
Winslow - not a lock, especially with his health, but should get plenty of targets
Dallas Clark - #2 receiver of Peyton....
Daniels - yardage beast with top 5 upside if he catches some TDs
Cooley - always a good bet for top 6
Players I would take around the same time as Olsen:
Keller - getting a bigger piece of the pie with Coles gone
Carlson - I like Olsen better... Carlson is solid, but may have benefitted from the inexplicable amount of WR injuries in Seattle.
Z.Miller - similar chance of succes as Olsen, but I like Olsen's phycical attributes better
Shockey - playing healthy in a top 3 passing offense, but is always an injury risk
~~~~~~
Those are the only guys that have a reasonable shot at top 5 TE, imo. I like Olsen and Keller best of that 2nd group, and Olsen has the better QB, so I probably draft Olsen around TE8.
I think Olsen has to beat out 3 of Winslow, Clark, Cooley and Daniels to get to top 5. I doubt he beats out Clark due to Clark's situation. Winslow has stud TE abilities, so I think only an injury let's Olsen pass him. Daniels and Cooley can be reasonably passed by Olsen.
Still puts him at TE6 at best, imo. Barring injury, of course.
BoulderBob
Footballguy
Olsen is a stud on the football field, and now he has QB with some accuracy. It also helps that these two have been spotted in public together quite a bit. A good relationship is a nice sign for Olsen owners.
Hester and Forte will have nice seasons, but Olsen is the man to own in Chicago, at least for the next two years. 1000 yards and 8TD's is pretty much a lock, imo...
Hester and Forte will have nice seasons, but Olsen is the man to own in Chicago, at least for the next two years. 1000 yards and 8TD's is pretty much a lock, imo...
Multiple Scores
Footballguy
The difference from the #10 TE to #5 TE in a non ppr is a whopping 18 points and 34 in non ppr. Olsen was #10 in nonppr and #9 in ppr last season. I don't think it's unrealistic whatsoever to imagine either him getting 60 more yards, 2 TDS to make him top 5 in a non ppr, or in the case of ppr 60 more yards, 2 TDS, 16 more catches. Were talking about 1 catch a game, 3-4 more yards a game and an extra TD every 8 weeks.
packersfan
Footballguy
I think he's going to be huge this season. I think he has Top 5 potential. The Bears' WRs are pretty poor and Cutler loves throwing to his TE. He may need to rely on Olsen (and Forte) even more in the passing game due to the lack of talent Chicago has at WR. The great thing about Olsen is he's still flying under the radar in drafts right now. He has an ADP of 97 according to Mock Draft Central and is the 8th TE being drafted.
Trey
Footballguy
Step away from the kool aid... I'm quite on on Olsen but to say that 1000/8 for ANY TE is a lock is outrageous.
PlasmaDogPlasma
Footballguy
I drafted Olsen as a rookie and am as high on his talent as anyone, but Desmond Clark is still the #1 TE in Chicago isn't he? Dustin Keller seems to have a much better situation for a big season than Olsen.
BuckeyeArt
Footballguy
Where did you see that (the playbook struggles)?
Banger
Footballguy
He was tied for 9th last year, was 4 pts behind Cooley and 11 pts behind Daniels. Both of those guys are in the same situation and Olsen's has improved dramatically. I'll have to read up on/follow during camp how they are going to use him and the rapport between Cutler/Olsen but he's definitely high on my radar as Daniels was at this time last year. Visnathe Shiancoe or whatever his name is was 5th last year and Olsen can't be the 5th best TE? Depending on how they use him he could be top 3 IMO. Who is their redzone target? Hester? Cmon. It's gonna be a TE, probably Olsen, he can possibly grab 7-9 tds.Lott said:
Cookiemonster
Footballguy
Scratch Gonzo and Winslow for my list. New teams, really old (or old-bodies), new systems, new coach... I'm not saying they're out of my top 10, but are great candidates to move down a few notches.
Clark may still be in town, but Olsen's new QB preferred his athletic TE (Scheffler) to his "starting, #1" TE when passes were flying, and Cutler threw to TEs quite a bit in his old offense. Rookie QBs usually hit their TEs more often than they do later in their careers 'cause it's an easier throw to a bigger target. Higher percentage passes, if you will. IMO, Cutler will make friends with his TE 1st, especially having a proven ground game, and play-action-monster this year in Hester at WR taking safeties' attention. Orton couldn't hit the downfield ball anything like Cutler and the middle of the field will be a little bigger than Chicago fans are used to seeing.
If by saying top 5, you mean #5-6 area, I agree.
If you mean #3-4 (inside the top 5), I would need to drink a lot more Kool-Aid.
Clark may still be in town, but Olsen's new QB preferred his athletic TE (Scheffler) to his "starting, #1" TE when passes were flying, and Cutler threw to TEs quite a bit in his old offense. Rookie QBs usually hit their TEs more often than they do later in their careers 'cause it's an easier throw to a bigger target. Higher percentage passes, if you will. IMO, Cutler will make friends with his TE 1st, especially having a proven ground game, and play-action-monster this year in Hester at WR taking safeties' attention. Orton couldn't hit the downfield ball anything like Cutler and the middle of the field will be a little bigger than Chicago fans are used to seeing.
If by saying top 5, you mean #5-6 area, I agree.
If you mean #3-4 (inside the top 5), I would need to drink a lot more Kool-Aid.
MAC_32
Footballguy
The only reason to buy into any Chicago pass catcher is if you believe their scheme will change with Cutler in tow. Every year some Chicago pass catcher is talked up, sometimes multiple, and every year their best one is an average fantasy producer at best. Since Lovie took over the number of Chicago pass catchers to eclipse 1000 yds or 6 TD's is zero. Cutler could change that, but unless one of them falls to a very good value I will have my sights set elsewhere. Depending on camp reports Bennett could end up on my teams (if Knox blows up he's a possibility too) but I doubt anyone else in their passing gamedoes.
I think this could be a year to wait on TE's. Gates still has some lingering injury concerns, Winslow and Gonzalez are on new teams. Witten should be in a good shape (although Bennett may continue to steal some TD's). Clark, Cooley and Daniels still look solid, but Olsen, Carlson, Keller and Zach Miller are all very intriguing for different reasons and could each come reasonably close to the guys mentioned above. When you consider that they'll be around a few rounds later, it just seems that the smart play this year is to wait a bit.
Lott's Fingertip
Footballguy
First, I agree with the point that there isn't a heck of a lot of difference between 5th and 9th TEs.But for Olsen to be 5th, he has to beat out a lot of good TEs. I agree that it can happen. He is unlikely to beat out Witten, Gonzo, and Clark. All three of those are very talented TEs in very good situations.Then there is Gates. He finished #4 in an injury-plaqued season. He may not be 100%, but he is oging to be healthier than he was last year. Gates is the best target on a good offense with a good QB. Those are 4 guys that Olsen is unlikely to pass in the rankings. Winslow has shown to be elite when healthy, it's hard not to put him above Olsen, unless you are predicting injury.Daniels had 862 yards and 762 yards the last 2 season. You say Olsen was just behind him and needs very little to pass him.... okay, but Daniels also had only 2 TDs last year, while Kevin Walters had 8 TDs on 10 fewer catches than Daniels. Daniels has the same opportunity to improve that Olsen has, so Olsen might need more than the 11 points he trailed Olsen by last year to pass him this year. Daniels had 5 TDs on 1/2 the catches in his rookie season; he is capable of catching TDs.Cooley had 1 TD last year, after having no less than 6 in any of the previous 4 years. So, again, Olsen might need considerably more than the 4 points he trailed Cooley last year in order to pass him this year.Desmond Clard is still around cutting into Olsen's upside as well. He had 41/367 last year playing alongside Olsen. Olsen is clearly the better passcatcher of the two, but Clark will still get a decent portion of TE targets.~~~~~I am not at all down on Olsen. He has a great skillset and very good opportunity. A few years ago he would be a heavy favorite to finish as a top5 TE... but there are a lot of very good TEs out there. Some of these very good TEs still have very good upside themselves, and Olsen is going to have to beat them out along with the established studs to get to elite TE status.#5 or #6 is Olsen's ceiling, IMO, unless more than one TE above him gets injured.Top 3? Who does he pass to get there? Serious question.
Well, if Cutler can develop a rapport with Olsen like he had with Scheffler, he could be in for a big season. I would like to see a more established receiver tandem on the outside to truly occupy those safeties so Olsen could have free reign in the middle of the field. Still, he has the potential to do really well.
Lott's Fingertip
Footballguy
Regarding vet TEs falling because of a team switch, I just don't buy it. Winslow had 89/875 in his 1st year starting (he tore up his knee EARLY in his rookie season). Gonzo switching teams isn't a concern to me.
There have been several rookie TEs to produce. Keller put up 48 for 535 as a rookie. McMichael put up 485 as a rook. Carlson 55/600+ as a rook. Heath Miller 450 as a rook. Zack Miller 450 as a rook. Shockey was a monster as a rook.
I just don't think an elite TE like Gonzo is going to plummet because he went to ATL.
A lesser talent might struggle. Going from a good situation to a bad situation might hinder a good TE's stats. Gonzo is going to a similar offensive situation (good RB, one good WR), except he now gets a much better QB.
He may not get 1000+ yards, but 750 is his FLOOR, and 850-900 is likely, imo.
In short, Gonzo and Winslow are elite TE talents that are going to get plenty of targets.
There have been several rookie TEs to produce. Keller put up 48 for 535 as a rookie. McMichael put up 485 as a rook. Carlson 55/600+ as a rook. Heath Miller 450 as a rook. Zack Miller 450 as a rook. Shockey was a monster as a rook.
I just don't think an elite TE like Gonzo is going to plummet because he went to ATL.
A lesser talent might struggle. Going from a good situation to a bad situation might hinder a good TE's stats. Gonzo is going to a similar offensive situation (good RB, one good WR), except he now gets a much better QB.
He may not get 1000+ yards, but 750 is his FLOOR, and 850-900 is likely, imo.
In short, Gonzo and Winslow are elite TE talents that are going to get plenty of targets.
Banger
Footballguy
Would anyone have predicted Shiancoe to finish 5th last year ahead of Cooley, Daniels, Scheffler, Winslow, etc.. I'm not expecting him to be a top 3 TE but it wouldn't shock me. The Bears spent those picks and brought in Cutler for a reason. I don't expect him to throw the ball as much as he did in Denver but I'd expect his TD total to be close and those TD's have to go somewhere. Who is going to be the redzone recipient? Their offense was geared heavily toward the TE in the endzone last year and I'd expect that to continue with better accuracy and success. If he ends up top 5, top 3 whatever, it will depend largely on his TD output. If Cutler adds 150 yards and 3 tds which I don't think is totally unreasonable he's top 3-5. He finished 9th last year and his situation has improved quite a bit due to Cutler IMO and moreso than probably any top 10 TE. He'll still be a lot cheaper than a lot of the top guys you mentioned but will have a very nice upside. I'm a big believer in Cutler and basing alot of the improvement based on him, the type of offense they run (especially in the redzone) and the lack of other decent targets.
King of the Wolfies
Footballguy
Olsen has a great situation to be top 3, but he will likely be held back by typical horrible Chicago play calling.
BuckeyeArt
Footballguy
If he gets those stats (850-900), then he is producing at 2005-06 levels and he has plummeted. An almost 30% drop in FPs qualifies as a plummet.
Lott's Fingertip
Footballguy
It's all relative. A 15-20% (not 30%) drop from last year's high numbers may seem dramatic, but it's only a point or so a game.That said, I am 90% confident Gonzo reaches 850-900 yards. I would draft him with the expectation that he gets around 1000, with a ceiling of around 1200.
In any case, it takes a whole lot of kool aid to put Olsen ahead of Gonzo.
Banger
Footballguy
Lott...I agree with a lot of your posts in the thread, good stuff. I just want to be clear, I'm not advocating taking Olsen over Gonzo (that's nuts) nor would I expect him to outperform him. Is it possible? yes. Probable? no. Everything would need to break right for Olsen and break wrong for Gonzo but that's really not the point of the thread. I basically see his downside as his ADP (ranked 9th right now) and his upside 5 or so spots higher if he gets a couple more TDs and a hundred more yards. Gonzo I'd imagine you'd probably have to grab in the 4th or so and Olsen you can probably get 5 rounds later (I'm pulling those numbers out of thin air but you get the point). I think he's good value with a decent floor.
steelcitysledgehammers
Footballguy
I'm a Bears fan who thinks Olsen could be a HUGE surprise this year. I think our dearth at WR will lead to a lot more opportunities for him. Last year, it wasn't uncommon for Olsen to line up at WR and I think we'll continue to see that this season considering there's nothing else (proven) to put out there. I think the coaches realize he's our best receiving threat and are going to work the passing offense around him. I very much believe our offense is going to look like the San Diego offense Norv's been running the past few years. Heavy on the running game, a passing game designed around the TE and the occasional deep strike to Hester to keep defenses honest.
I would not be surprised if he ended up with 1000/10 if no one else steps up at the receiver position.
Go Bears!
J
I would not be surprised if he ended up with 1000/10 if no one else steps up at the receiver position.
Go Bears!
J
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
He's been with the team 2 weeks and he hasn't digested the entire playbook? I'm dropping him to TE2 status...That said, I actually read reports that Ryan & Gonzo were already in sync.
Lott's Fingertip
Footballguy
I agree wholeheartedly with your assessment. He is great value at TE8.I like the guy, I drafted him in one dynasty but had to let him go last year due to roster constraints. In my other dynasty league he is probably going to be my starter over Shockey. Once upon a time it was a good strategy to take the stud TE early.... at the time there were only a handful of reliable TEs.Now the drop off is not very big, and a guy like Olsen can easily jump into the 800 yard, 8+ TD club and be among the studs. On a week to week basis, he could outscore the top TEs 40% or more of the time.... which is what will hopefully make him a great value. I like his chances to exceed 700 yards, and his ceiling is certainly higher. If he becomes a good redzone target and gets his TDs up, there;s nothing not to like, especially drafting him late.He is a guy I will target in my redraft leagues, because I really don't care to take TEs early.
Banger
Footballguy
I agree with your TE draft strategy and several years ago when there were the big 3 and there was a huge dropoff the strategy is different than it is today (at least for me). Last year I loved Daniels since he could be had cheap, good passing offense, etc. and I grabbed Carlson after the first couple weeks and they were a fine tandem throughout the year. I haven't really dug into a lot of the positions yet and possible value plays but early on Olsen has caught my attention. Admittedly a lot of it has to do with man Cutler man crush but he's a 3rd year guy (no I'm not suggesting some 3rd year breakout TE theory), he's pretty talented and a good pass catcher, now has a great QB, has possibly the worst set of WR's in the NFL to compete with, he's cheap (at least now) and their offense seems to revolve around the TE in the redzone. What's not to like?
Holy Schneikes
Footballguy
There are only two guys I'd rather have at TE this year, Gates and Witten. No one else has a clear advantage over Olsen in my mind.
There are SO many things in his favor right now that he'll have to try pretty hard to screw it up.
He is EXTREMELY athletic. People forget what he did at the combine, but it was ridiculous. He is very likely the best receiver on the team (which is THE #1 reason for fantasy football TE dominance). He just got a top notch QB that seems to like to focus on a big, athletic receiving option. He's entering his 3rd year, a very common point for a TE explosion (Gonzo went from 59/621/2 in his 2nd year to 76/849/11 in his 3rd year, Winslow had his big year in his 3rd, Shockey's big year was his 3rd, etc.).
Get him late if you can, but he's the kind of player on the upswing that can really make a difference in a fantasy season.
There are SO many things in his favor right now that he'll have to try pretty hard to screw it up.
He is EXTREMELY athletic. People forget what he did at the combine, but it was ridiculous. He is very likely the best receiver on the team (which is THE #1 reason for fantasy football TE dominance). He just got a top notch QB that seems to like to focus on a big, athletic receiving option. He's entering his 3rd year, a very common point for a TE explosion (Gonzo went from 59/621/2 in his 2nd year to 76/849/11 in his 3rd year, Winslow had his big year in his 3rd, Shockey's big year was his 3rd, etc.).
Get him late if you can, but he's the kind of player on the upswing that can really make a difference in a fantasy season.
Great post
Lott's Fingertip
Footballguy
Shockey exploded in his rookie year.Winslow missed his rookie year due to motorcycle accident... then exploded in year 2. He improved his yards and had 2 more TDs in year 3, but his breakout was clearly year 2.Gates broke out in year 2. Daniels broke out in year 2. Witten in year 2. Cooley in year 2. Heap in year 2.Nothing magical about year 3.Just sayin'...ETA: I expect Olsen to improve, possibly dramatically... but it has little to do with year 3 and a lot to do with jay Cutler.
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Holy Schneikes
Footballguy
I agree, nothing magical about the third year. Perhaps I overemphasized that. The real point is, LOTS of guys are still developing at his age and we have likely not seen what he can do yet. He had a solid 2nd year, and the 3rd year is often better (even if it's not a "breakout"), even in some of the examples you gave.
Lott's Fingertip
Footballguy
I concur.
Multiple Scores
Footballguy
(RotoWire) Olsen has established himself as a favorite target of new quarterback Jay Cutler, the Chicago Sun-Times reports. Analysis: "He's a very good receiver, but he's a good tight end, too," offensive coordinator Ron Turner said of Olsen. "Greg has worked hard on his blocking. But he can be a receiver, too, no question about it. We're seeing the evolution of Greg in his third year." With Olsen's talent and growth and the presence of Cutler, a breakout appears to be on the horizon.
barista
Footballguy
Re: Des Clark – he's not the #1... (maybe on the chart - as the blocking TE).
Garts
Footballguy
Gopher State
Footballguy
He have a break out year as a blocker, Bears are a run first team. Olson will not finish top 10, but he's a good TE to take late in FF drafts.
Cookiemonster
Footballguy
Yeah. That's why they went out to get Cutler. The guy who also made Scheffler a viable FFB TE and Scheff IMO, is not quite as good of a reciever and not even in the same neighborhood blocking. Olson will push top 5 or 6 if he stays healthy.He have a break out year as a blocker, Bears are a run first team. Olson will not finish top 10, but he's a good TE to take late in FF drafts.
Lott's Fingertip
Footballguy
Olsen finished as TE10 last year.He have a break out year as a blocker, Bears are a run first team. Olson will not finish top 10, but he's a good TE to take late in FF drafts.
