Team Spotlight: Detroit Lions (1 Viewer)

[Maurile Tremblay]

See the pinned thread for links to each team spotlight.

I'll start off by posting my projections to get us going. The idea is for others to post their own projections as well, or to comment on the projections posted by others.

Overall

510 pass attempts for 297 receptions, 3324 yards, 19 touchdowns, and 19 interceptions; 449 rushes for 1864 yards and 12 touchdowns.

QB

Matthew Stafford: 277 of 478 passing for 3109 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 18 interceptions; 49 rushes for 223 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Shaun Hill: 20 of 32 passing for 215 yards, 1 touchdowns, and 1 interceptions; 3 rushes for 14 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Drew Stanton: 0 of 0 passing for 0 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

RB

Jahvid Best: 174 rushes for 713 yards and 5 touchdowns; 28 receptions for 201 yards and 1 touchdowns.

Kevin Smith: 97 rushes for 372 yards and 2 touchdowns; 32 receptions for 252 yards and 1 touchdowns.

Maurice Morris: 77 rushes for 325 yards and 1 touchdowns; 8 receptions for 55 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Aaron Brown: 8 rushes for 32 yards and 0 touchdowns; 5 receptions for 36 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Cedric Peerman: 12 rushes for 48 yards and 0 touchdowns; 3 receptions for 23 yards and 0 touchdowns.

DeDe Dorsey: 8 rushes for 34 yards and 0 touchdowns; 2 receptions for 12 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Jerome Felton: 12 rushes for 47 yards and 0 touchdowns; 3 receptions for 19 yards and 0 touchdowns.

WR

Calvin Johnson: 67 receptions for 973 yards and 6 touchdowns; 6 rushes for 34 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Nate Burleson: 31 receptions for 392 yards and 3 touchdowns; 2 rushes for 11 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Bryant Johnson: 14 receptions for 160 yards and 1 touchdowns; 2 rushes for 11 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Derrick Williams: 7 receptions for 89 yards and 1 touchdowns; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Dennis Northcutt: 8 receptions for 95 yards and 0 touchdowns; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Brian Clark: 8 receptions for 84 yards and 0 touchdowns; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Adam Jennings: 8 receptions for 94 yards and 1 touchdowns; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

TE

Brandon Pettigrew: 29 receptions for 302 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Tony Scheffler: 39 receptions for 476 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Will Heller: 8 receptions for 63 yards and 1 touchdowns.

Jake Nordin: 0 receptions for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Dan Gronkowski: 0 receptions for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

 

[Dawg Pound 69]

Receptions are much lower than QB completions ?

Calvin will be around 85 catches. And Peerman was cut and signed by the Bengals.

 

[lyon812]

Receptions are much lower than QB completions ?

There's actually 300 receptions there.28+32+8+5+3+2+3+67+31+14+7+8+8+8+29+39+8

 

[The Real Hipster Doofus]

See the pinned thread for links to each team spotlight.

I'll start off by posting my projections to get us going. The idea is for others to post their own projections as well, or to comment on the projections posted by others.

Overall

510 pass attempts for 297 receptions, 3324 yards, 19 touchdowns, and 19 interceptions; 449 rushes for 1864 yards and 12 touchdowns.

QB

Matthew Stafford: 277 of 478 passing for 3109 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 18 interceptions; 49 rushes for 223 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Shaun Hill: 20 of 32 passing for 215 yards, 1 touchdowns, and 1 interceptions; 3 rushes for 14 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Drew Stanton: 0 of 0 passing for 0 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

RB

Jahvid Best: 174 rushes for 713 yards and 5 touchdowns; 28 receptions for 201 yards and 1 touchdowns.

Kevin Smith: 97 rushes for 372 yards and 2 touchdowns; 32 receptions for 252 yards and 1 touchdowns.

Maurice Morris: 77 rushes for 325 yards and 1 touchdowns; 8 receptions for 55 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Aaron Brown: 8 rushes for 32 yards and 0 touchdowns; 5 receptions for 36 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Cedric Peerman: 12 rushes for 48 yards and 0 touchdowns; 3 receptions for 23 yards and 0 touchdowns.

DeDe Dorsey: 8 rushes for 34 yards and 0 touchdowns; 2 receptions for 12 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Jerome Felton: 12 rushes for 47 yards and 0 touchdowns; 3 receptions for 19 yards and 0 touchdowns.

WR

Calvin Johnson: 67 receptions for 973 yards and 6 touchdowns; 6rushes for 34 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Nate Burleson: 31 receptions for 392 yards and 3 touchdowns; 2rushes for 11 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Bryant Johnson: 14 receptions for 160 yards and 1 touchdowns; 2rushes for 11 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Derrick Williams: 7 receptions for 89 yards and 1 touchdowns; 0rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Dennis Northcutt: 8 receptions for 95 yards and 0 touchdowns; 0rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Brian Clark: 8 receptions for 84 yards and 0 touchdowns; 0rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Adam Jennings: 8 receptions for 94 yards and 1 touchdowns; 0rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

TE

Brandon Pettigrew: 29 receptions for 302 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Tony Scheffler: 39 receptions for 476 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Will Heller: 8 receptions for 63 yards and 1 touchdowns.

Jake Nordin: 0 receptions for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Dan Gronkowski: 0 receptions for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

All I will say is I think you are WAYYYYYY off the reservation with this projection.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

And Peerman was cut and signed by the Bengals.

Thanks. I missed that.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

See the pinned thread for links to each team spotlight.

I'll start off by posting my projections to get us going. The idea is for others to post their own projections as well, or to comment on the projections posted by others.

Overall

510 pass attempts for 297 receptions, 3324 yards, 19 touchdowns, and 19 interceptions; 449 rushes for 1864 yards and 12 touchdowns.

QB

Matthew Stafford: 277 of 478 passing for 3109 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 18 interceptions; 49 rushes for 223 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Shaun Hill: 20 of 32 passing for 215 yards, 1 touchdowns, and 1 interceptions; 3 rushes for 14 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Drew Stanton: 0 of 0 passing for 0 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

RB

Jahvid Best: 174 rushes for 713 yards and 5 touchdowns; 28 receptions for 201 yards and 1 touchdowns.

Kevin Smith: 97 rushes for 372 yards and 2 touchdowns; 32 receptions for 252 yards and 1 touchdowns.

Maurice Morris: 77 rushes for 325 yards and 1 touchdowns; 8 receptions for 55 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Aaron Brown: 8 rushes for 32 yards and 0 touchdowns; 5 receptions for 36 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Cedric Peerman: 12 rushes for 48 yards and 0 touchdowns; 3 receptions for 23 yards and 0 touchdowns.

DeDe Dorsey: 8 rushes for 34 yards and 0 touchdowns; 2 receptions for 12 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Jerome Felton: 12 rushes for 47 yards and 0 touchdowns; 3 receptions for 19 yards and 0 touchdowns.

WR

Calvin Johnson: 67 receptions for 973 yards and 6 touchdowns; 6rushes for 34 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Nate Burleson: 31 receptions for 392 yards and 3 touchdowns; 2rushes for 11 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Bryant Johnson: 14 receptions for 160 yards and 1 touchdowns; 2rushes for 11 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Derrick Williams: 7 receptions for 89 yards and 1 touchdowns; 0rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Dennis Northcutt: 8 receptions for 95 yards and 0 touchdowns; 0rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Brian Clark: 8 receptions for 84 yards and 0 touchdowns; 0rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Adam Jennings: 8 receptions for 94 yards and 1 touchdowns; 0rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

TE

Brandon Pettigrew: 29 receptions for 302 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Tony Scheffler: 39 receptions for 476 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Will Heller: 8 receptions for 63 yards and 1 touchdowns.

Jake Nordin: 0 receptions for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Dan Gronkowski: 0 receptions for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

All I will say is I think you are WAYYYYYY off the reservation with this projection.

Considering out of 3 years he has had only one season above those numbers(in general). I don't think he is WAYYYYY off the reservation.

 

[The Real Hipster Doofus]

See the pinned thread for links to each team spotlight.

I'll start off by posting my projections to get us going. The idea is for others to post their own projections as well, or to comment on the projections posted by others.

Overall

510 pass attempts for 297 receptions, 3324 yards, 19 touchdowns, and 19 interceptions; 449 rushes for 1864 yards and 12 touchdowns.

QB

Matthew Stafford: 277 of 478 passing for 3109 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 18 interceptions; 49 rushes for 223 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Shaun Hill: 20 of 32 passing for 215 yards, 1 touchdowns, and 1 interceptions; 3 rushes for 14 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Drew Stanton: 0 of 0 passing for 0 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

RB

Jahvid Best: 174 rushes for 713 yards and 5 touchdowns; 28 receptions for 201 yards and 1 touchdowns.

Kevin Smith: 97 rushes for 372 yards and 2 touchdowns; 32 receptions for 252 yards and 1 touchdowns.

Maurice Morris: 77 rushes for 325 yards and 1 touchdowns; 8 receptions for 55 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Aaron Brown: 8 rushes for 32 yards and 0 touchdowns; 5 receptions for 36 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Cedric Peerman: 12 rushes for 48 yards and 0 touchdowns; 3 receptions for 23 yards and 0 touchdowns.

DeDe Dorsey: 8 rushes for 34 yards and 0 touchdowns; 2 receptions for 12 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Jerome Felton: 12 rushes for 47 yards and 0 touchdowns; 3 receptions for 19 yards and 0 touchdowns.

WR

Calvin Johnson: 67 receptions for 973 yards and 6 touchdowns; 6rushes for 34 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Nate Burleson: 31 receptions for 392 yards and 3 touchdowns; 2rushes for 11 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Bryant Johnson: 14 receptions for 160 yards and 1 touchdowns; 2rushes for 11 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Derrick Williams: 7 receptions for 89 yards and 1 touchdowns; 0rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Dennis Northcutt: 8 receptions for 95 yards and 0 touchdowns; 0rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Brian Clark: 8 receptions for 84 yards and 0 touchdowns; 0rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Adam Jennings: 8 receptions for 94 yards and 1 touchdowns; 0rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

TE

Brandon Pettigrew: 29 receptions for 302 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Tony Scheffler: 39 receptions for 476 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Will Heller: 8 receptions for 63 yards and 1 touchdowns.

Jake Nordin: 0 receptions for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Dan Gronkowski: 0 receptions for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

All I will say is I think you are WAYYYYYY off the reservation with this projection.

Considering out of 3 years he has had only one season above those numbers(in general). I don't think he is WAYYYYY off the reservation.

He put up 67/984/5 last season. A season in which he missed two full games, as well as being significantly injured for a portion of the other games. The games he did play in, he had a rookie QB in Stafford or two of the worst QB's to start games last season in Culpepper and Stanton. The Lions have added Best, Sheffler and Burleson to take some pressure off of Johnson this offseason. Stafford is a year older. Short of injury, I don't see any way Calvin's numbers stay right where they were last season. He put up 78/1331/12 as a ROOKIE, on a team that was absolutely awful. I have said it in every thread where Calvin is discussed and I will repeat it here. If he does not get injured, Calvin is an 80/1200/9 WR at a minimum, and I would bet the house that he ends up closer to 90/1400/15 than he does to the numbers Maurile has projected here. There are a lot of people here who are missing the boat on Calvin.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

See the pinned thread for links to each team spotlight.

I'll start off by posting my projections to get us going. The idea is for others to post their own projections as well, or to comment on the projections posted by others.

Overall

510 pass attempts for 297 receptions, 3324 yards, 19 touchdowns, and 19 interceptions; 449 rushes for 1864 yards and 12 touchdowns.

QB

Matthew Stafford: 277 of 478 passing for 3109 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 18 interceptions; 49 rushes for 223 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Shaun Hill: 20 of 32 passing for 215 yards, 1 touchdowns, and 1 interceptions; 3 rushes for 14 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Drew Stanton: 0 of 0 passing for 0 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

RB

Jahvid Best: 174 rushes for 713 yards and 5 touchdowns; 28 receptions for 201 yards and 1 touchdowns.

Kevin Smith: 97 rushes for 372 yards and 2 touchdowns; 32 receptions for 252 yards and 1 touchdowns.

Maurice Morris: 77 rushes for 325 yards and 1 touchdowns; 8 receptions for 55 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Aaron Brown: 8 rushes for 32 yards and 0 touchdowns; 5 receptions for 36 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Cedric Peerman: 12 rushes for 48 yards and 0 touchdowns; 3 receptions for 23 yards and 0 touchdowns.

DeDe Dorsey: 8 rushes for 34 yards and 0 touchdowns; 2 receptions for 12 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Jerome Felton: 12 rushes for 47 yards and 0 touchdowns; 3 receptions for 19 yards and 0 touchdowns.

WR

Calvin Johnson: 67 receptions for 973 yards and 6 touchdowns; 6rushes for 34 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Nate Burleson: 31 receptions for 392 yards and 3 touchdowns; 2rushes for 11 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Bryant Johnson: 14 receptions for 160 yards and 1 touchdowns; 2rushes for 11 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Derrick Williams: 7 receptions for 89 yards and 1 touchdowns; 0rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Dennis Northcutt: 8 receptions for 95 yards and 0 touchdowns; 0rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Brian Clark: 8 receptions for 84 yards and 0 touchdowns; 0rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Adam Jennings: 8 receptions for 94 yards and 1 touchdowns; 0rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

TE

Brandon Pettigrew: 29 receptions for 302 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Tony Scheffler: 39 receptions for 476 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Will Heller: 8 receptions for 63 yards and 1 touchdowns.

Jake Nordin: 0 receptions for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Dan Gronkowski: 0 receptions for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

All I will say is I think you are WAYYYYYY off the reservation with this projection.

Considering out of 3 years he has had only one season above those numbers(in general). I don't think he is WAYYYYY off the reservation.

He put up 67/984/5 last season. A season in which he missed two full games, as well as being significantly injured for a portion of the other games. The games he did play in, he had a rookie QB in Stafford or two of the worst QB's to start games last season in Culpepper and Stanton. The Lions have added Best, Sheffler and Burleson to take some pressure off of Johnson this offseason. Stafford is a year older. Short of injury, I don't see any way Calvin's numbers stay right where they were last season. He put up 78/1331/12 as a ROOKIE, on a team that was absolutely awful. I have said it in every thread where Calvin is discussed and I will repeat it here. If he does not get injured, Calvin is an 80/1200/9 WR at a minimum, and I would bet the house that he ends up closer to 90/1400/15 than he does to the numbers Maurile has projected here. There are a lot of people here who are missing the boat on Calvin.

He put up 48 for 756 4 tds as a rookie.I think Calvin is a heck of an athlete....but I think he will never live up to the expectations.

Plus adding all the talent around him...could diminish his #'s....look at Colston and Jennings last year.

 

[jurb26]

Those passing numbers as a whole seem awful low to me. Det amassed almost 3500 yds and 16 TDs last year with Stafford being a rookie, missing lots of time and the weapons being significantly worse than it appears this years will be. I think 3300/18 is far too conservative for the passing numbers.

 

[The Real Hipster Doofus]

See the pinned thread for links to each team spotlight.

I'll start off by posting my projections to get us going. The idea is for others to post their own projections as well, or to comment on the projections posted by others.

Overall

510 pass attempts for 297 receptions, 3324 yards, 19 touchdowns, and 19 interceptions; 449 rushes for 1864 yards and 12 touchdowns.

QB

Matthew Stafford: 277 of 478 passing for 3109 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 18 interceptions; 49 rushes for 223 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Shaun Hill: 20 of 32 passing for 215 yards, 1 touchdowns, and 1 interceptions; 3 rushes for 14 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Drew Stanton: 0 of 0 passing for 0 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

RB

Jahvid Best: 174 rushes for 713 yards and 5 touchdowns; 28 receptions for 201 yards and 1 touchdowns.

Kevin Smith: 97 rushes for 372 yards and 2 touchdowns; 32 receptions for 252 yards and 1 touchdowns.

Maurice Morris: 77 rushes for 325 yards and 1 touchdowns; 8 receptions for 55 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Aaron Brown: 8 rushes for 32 yards and 0 touchdowns; 5 receptions for 36 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Cedric Peerman: 12 rushes for 48 yards and 0 touchdowns; 3 receptions for 23 yards and 0 touchdowns.

DeDe Dorsey: 8 rushes for 34 yards and 0 touchdowns; 2 receptions for 12 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Jerome Felton: 12 rushes for 47 yards and 0 touchdowns; 3 receptions for 19 yards and 0 touchdowns.

WR

Calvin Johnson: 67 receptions for 973 yards and 6 touchdowns; 6rushes for 34 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Nate Burleson: 31 receptions for 392 yards and 3 touchdowns; 2rushes for 11 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Bryant Johnson: 14 receptions for 160 yards and 1 touchdowns; 2rushes for 11 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Derrick Williams: 7 receptions for 89 yards and 1 touchdowns; 0rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Dennis Northcutt: 8 receptions for 95 yards and 0 touchdowns; 0rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Brian Clark: 8 receptions for 84 yards and 0 touchdowns; 0rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Adam Jennings: 8 receptions for 94 yards and 1 touchdowns; 0rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

TE

Brandon Pettigrew: 29 receptions for 302 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Tony Scheffler: 39 receptions for 476 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Will Heller: 8 receptions for 63 yards and 1 touchdowns.

Jake Nordin: 0 receptions for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Dan Gronkowski: 0 receptions for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

All I will say is I think you are WAYYYYYY off the reservation with this projection.

Considering out of 3 years he has had only one season above those numbers(in general). I don't think he is WAYYYYY off the reservation.

He put up 67/984/5 last season. A season in which he missed two full games, as well as being significantly injured for a portion of the other games. The games he did play in, he had a rookie QB in Stafford or two of the worst QB's to start games last season in Culpepper and Stanton. The Lions have added Best, Sheffler and Burleson to take some pressure off of Johnson this offseason. Stafford is a year older. Short of injury, I don't see any way Calvin's numbers stay right where they were last season. He put up 78/1331/12 as a ROOKIE, on a team that was absolutely awful. I have said it in every thread where Calvin is discussed and I will repeat it here. If he does not get injured, Calvin is an 80/1200/9 WR at a minimum, and I would bet the house that he ends up closer to 90/1400/15 than he does to the numbers Maurile has projected here. There are a lot of people here who are missing the boat on Calvin.

He put up 48 for 756 4 tds as a rookie.I think Calvin is a heck of an athlete....but I think he will never live up to the expectations.

Plus adding all the talent around him...could diminish his #'s....look at Colston and Jennings last year.

Sorry you are right I mixed my years up. That was not his rookie year. Still think people are missing the boat on Calvin big time.

 

[Hendo]

I think Calvin is a heck of an athlete....but I think he will never live up to the expectations.Plus adding all the talent around him...could diminish his #'s....look at Colston and Jennings last year.

Calvin is 10x the talent of both. Detroit also does not have an apt Drew Brees in a spread offense, nor the weapons that GB has even after their offseason additions. I usually agree on these boards but im betting Calvin Johnson comes close to his 1300yrd season then the one he's projected here barring injury. Either way i hope people view it this way so i can get Calvin much cheaper then I anticipated. I just dont see it however

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

I think Calvin is a heck of an athlete....but I think he will never live up to the expectations.

Plus adding all the talent around him...could diminish his #'s....look at Colston and Jennings last year.

Calvin is 10x the talent of both. Detroit also does not have an apt Drew Brees in a spread offense, nor the weapons that GB has even after their offseason additions. I usually agree on these boards but im betting Calvin Johnson comes close to his 1300yrd season then the one he's projected here barring injury. Either way i hope people view it this way so i can get Calvin much cheaper then I anticipated. I just dont see it however

These are the things that get people carried away with stats or perceptions of players. Detroit remember how awesome Boss Bailey was going to be?

I think Calvin is talented and can produce....but the year in year out top 3 dynasty WR and 1500 yard 15 TD seasons are hard to live up to.

 

[Hendo]

I think Calvin is a heck of an athlete....but I think he will never live up to the expectations.

Plus adding all the talent around him...could diminish his #'s....look at Colston and Jennings last year.

Calvin is 10x the talent of both. Detroit also does not have an apt Drew Brees in a spread offense, nor the weapons that GB has even after their offseason additions. I usually agree on these boards but im betting Calvin Johnson comes close to his 1300yrd season then the one he's projected here barring injury. Either way i hope people view it this way so i can get Calvin much cheaper then I anticipated. I just dont see it however

These are the things that get people carried away with stats or perceptions of players. Detroit remember how awesome Boss Bailey was going to be?

I think Calvin is talented and can produce....but the year in year out top 3 dynasty WR and 1500 yard 15 TD seasons are hard to live up to.

ok what in my reply implied nothing but facts? You will be hard pressed to find 10 people out of 100 who think either Marquis Colston or Gregg Jennings is a better talent. How is New Orleans offense remotely comparable to Detroit's? i'd actually love to hear this... and i'd rate GB's weapons and a more experienced elite QB spreading the ball around far superior to Detroit's. I just think both are a really poor comparison to make a point on Calvins supposed projected numbers here.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

I think Calvin is a heck of an athlete....but I think he will never live up to the expectations.

Plus adding all the talent around him...could diminish his #'s....look at Colston and Jennings last year.

Calvin is 10x the talent of both. Detroit also does not have an apt Drew Brees in a spread offense, nor the weapons that GB has even after their offseason additions. I usually agree on these boards but im betting Calvin Johnson comes close to his 1300yrd season then the one he's projected here barring injury. Either way i hope people view it this way so i can get Calvin much cheaper then I anticipated. I just dont see it however

These are the things that get people carried away with stats or perceptions of players. Detroit remember how awesome Boss Bailey was going to be?

I think Calvin is talented and can produce....but the year in year out top 3 dynasty WR and 1500 yard 15 TD seasons are hard to live up to.

ok what in my reply implied nothing but facts? You will be hard pressed to find 10 people out of 100 who think either Marquis Colston or Gregg Jennings is a better talent. How is New Orleans offense remotely comparable to Detroit's? i'd actually love to hear this... and i'd rate GB's weapons and a more experienced elite QB spreading the ball around far superior to Detroit's. I just think both are a really poor comparison to make a point on Calvins supposed projected numbers here.

Sensitive much?

10X the talent IMO means Jennings, Jennings, Jennings, Jennings, Jennings, Jennings, Jennings, Jennings, Jennings, Jennings < Calvin Johnson. I happen to think that isn't accurate.

Detroit adding Jahvid Best, Tony Scheffler, Burleson to Pettigrew(hopefully healthy), Stafford. I said adding the other talent could diminish his #'s....it did happen in NO, it did happen in GB, it did happen in Philly(desean), etc.

I agree with the projections and would think anything above 1100 yards is a bonus to his FF team until he and the talent around him can be more consistent and healthy.

 

[PhantomJB]

See the pinned thread for links to each team spotlight.

I'll start off by posting my projections to get us going. The idea is for others to post their own projections as well, or to comment on the projections posted by others.

Overall

510 pass attempts for 297 receptions, 3324 yards, 19 touchdowns, and 19 interceptions; 449 rushes for 1864 yards and 12 touchdowns.

QB

Matthew Stafford: 277 of 478 passing for 3109 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 18 interceptions; 49 rushes for 223 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Shaun Hill: 20 of 32 passing for 215 yards, 1 touchdowns, and 1 interceptions; 3 rushes for 14 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Drew Stanton: 0 of 0 passing for 0 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

RB

Jahvid Best: 174 rushes for 713 yards and 5 touchdowns; 28 receptions for 201 yards and 1 touchdowns.

Kevin Smith: 97 rushes for 372 yards and 2 touchdowns; 32 receptions for 252 yards and 1 touchdowns.

Maurice Morris: 77 rushes for 325 yards and 1 touchdowns; 8 receptions for 55 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Aaron Brown: 8 rushes for 32 yards and 0 touchdowns; 5 receptions for 36 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Cedric Peerman: 12 rushes for 48 yards and 0 touchdowns; 3 receptions for 23 yards and 0 touchdowns.

DeDe Dorsey: 8 rushes for 34 yards and 0 touchdowns; 2 receptions for 12 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Jerome Felton: 12 rushes for 47 yards and 0 touchdowns; 3 receptions for 19 yards and 0 touchdowns.

WR

Calvin Johnson: 67 receptions for 973 yards and 6 touchdowns; 6rushes for 34 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Nate Burleson: 31 receptions for 392 yards and 3 touchdowns; 2rushes for 11 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Bryant Johnson: 14 receptions for 160 yards and 1 touchdowns; 2rushes for 11 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Derrick Williams: 7 receptions for 89 yards and 1 touchdowns; 0rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Dennis Northcutt: 8 receptions for 95 yards and 0 touchdowns; 0rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Brian Clark: 8 receptions for 84 yards and 0 touchdowns; 0rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Adam Jennings: 8 receptions for 94 yards and 1 touchdowns; 0rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

TE

Brandon Pettigrew: 29 receptions for 302 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Tony Scheffler: 39 receptions for 476 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Will Heller: 8 receptions for 63 yards and 1 touchdowns.

Jake Nordin: 0 receptions for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Dan Gronkowski: 0 receptions for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

All I will say is I think you are WAYYYYYY off the reservation with this projection.

Considering out of 3 years he has had only one season above those numbers(in general). I don't think he is WAYYYYY off the reservation.

He put up 67/984/5 last season. A season in which he missed two full games, as well as being significantly injured for a portion of the other games. The games he did play in, he had a rookie QB in Stafford or two of the worst QB's to start games last season in Culpepper and Stanton. The Lions have added Best, Sheffler and Burleson to take some pressure off of Johnson this offseason. Stafford is a year older. Short of injury, I don't see any way Calvin's numbers stay right where they were last season. He put up 78/1331/12 as a ROOKIE, on a team that was absolutely awful. I have said it in every thread where Calvin is discussed and I will repeat it here. If he does not get injured, Calvin is an 80/1200/9 WR at a minimum, and I would bet the house that he ends up closer to 90/1400/15 than he does to the numbers Maurile has projected here. There are a lot of people here who are missing the boat on Calvin.

Shhhhhhh. Let sleeping dogs lie. Better for the Calvin believers come draft time. ;-)

 

[aardball44]

in case we ever get around to talking about Detroit's defense in this thread.

 

[ty247]

in case we ever get around to talking about Detroit's defense in this thread.

Much improved.. you'll see some improvement this year, but I don't think they break top 20 until next year following a nice draft and gel time.

 

[LBH]

this could be the first year Calvin isnt triple teamed. Im looking forward to seeing what he can do

 

[whitewizard]

it was not until year 4 that marvin broke out. calvin has been a consistent producer over the last 3 years, and while he has been banged up now and again he still maintains dominant play in the NFL.

only time will tell if calvin becomes a marvin harrison, but the better options will open him up to be more consistent and have a higher floor.

the 1400+ seasons are harder to obtain in a more potent offense but the 1100+, 9TD seasons become much more reliable.

there are a few question marks on how well stafford and calvin will produce but an improvement should be in order with a more balanced attack. i know we all demand the stars to step into hall of fame mode right away but sometimes it takes a while. still though playing 14 games with a rookie calvin still produced slightly above average #s. a 2nd year with his QB, in a offense with more options should dictate a increase in production to the tune of 1200, 11 TDs.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

I think Jerome Felton will be used a little more this year near the goaline and he's not a bad receiving fullback. I guess we'll have to see how they use Best and how healthy K. Smith is but I'd be very very surprised if Felton doesn't score a TD this year.

Count me in the group that thinks Calvin will receive for 1000 plus yards this year, Stafford should improve this year and that will directly benefit Megatron.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Those passing numbers as a whole seem awful low to me. Det amassed almost 3500 yds and 16 TDs last year with Stafford being a rookie, missing lots of time and the weapons being significantly worse than it appears this years will be. I think 3300/18 is far too conservative for the passing numbers.

This was my first thought. I can't imagine the numbers being worse than last year. First, Stafford was a rookie. Calvin missed time and even when he played, he was double and even triple covered for most of the year because nobody else could get open. This is also the first time Calvin will not have a new offensive coordinator, so he knows the system now. Last year, the receiving options after Calvin were Bryant Johnson, Northcutt, and Pettigrew, a rookie who missed a lot of early practice time. Now, Burleson is here and while he is not great by any stretch, he is a huge upgrade over what the Lions put out last year. Add Scheffler and especially a game breaking RB in Best and I can't imagine fewer passing yards than last year. While the Lions line is not all that good, I think adding Sims makes a big difference compared to Loper and Ramirez. The left guard spot has been a major weakness for the last 10 years and it should be solid now. I also think defenses had a big advantage last year knowing all they had to do was cover Calvin. They knew nobody else was much of a threat. Best changes that a lot. The offense should be more balanced now and there should be fewer 3rd and long situations. The run blocking was not good last year, but a lot of that was on the RBs not being quick enough to hit the holes. I also think Linehan will use a lot of screens and draws with Best and that will slow the pass rush down. Overall, I think there will be a modest improvement in the offense with some upside. Much will depend on Stafford's development.

 

[Tau837]

One way to think about the projections of Detroit's passing totals is to consider how many teams typically pass for as much as 3324 yards and 19 TDs:

Teams with as many as 3324 passing yards:

2009 - 21

2008 - 19

2007 - 23

2006 - 19

2005 - 22

Teams with as many as 19 passing TDs:

2009 - 20

2008 - 18

2007 - 19

2006 - 19

2005 - 19

So are there 19-20 teams that can sensibly be expected to have more passing yards than Detroit? Are there 18 teams that can sensibly be expected to have more passing TDs than Detroit? If the answer to both is yes, then from a historical perspective it makes sense to project Detroit this way in a general sense. I don't think it's unreasonable.

Also, I think something that is throwing people off more than the totals is the spread of the receiving numbers. If Maurile projected Calvin with 1200 receiving yards instead of 973 and didn't even list Peerman (who we know must be removed), Felton, Clark, and Jennings, I doubt everyone would be objecting as much.

 

[Tau837]

Also, Maurile is not projecting "worse numbers".

Overall

510 pass attempts for 297 receptions, 3324 yards, 19 touchdowns, and 19 interceptions; 449 rushes for 1864 yards and 12 touchdowns.

He is projecting a significant increase in rushing over last year's performance of 405/1608/9 (3.97 ypc). He's projecting another 44 attempts, 3 more TDs, and a significant improvement to 4.15 ypc.As for passing, last year Detroit was 316/586 (53.9%) for 3470 passing yards (5.92 ypa), 16 TDs, and 32 interceptions, for an overall QB rating of 58.0. Maurile is projecting improvements in completion percentage (58.2%), ypa (6.52), TDs (19), interceptions (19), and thus to QB rating (74.7).

It seems there is a lot of complaining about droppping by 146 passing yards while ignoring the projected improvements in every other category. The only reason passing yards are lower in his projection is because he projects 76 fewer passing attempts.

 

[Catbird]

Also, Maurile is not projecting "worse numbers".

Overall

510 pass attempts for 297 receptions, 3324 yards, 19 touchdowns, and 19 interceptions; 449 rushes for 1864 yards and 12 touchdowns.

He is projecting a significant increase in rushing over last year's performance of 405/1608/9 (3.97 ypc). He's projecting another 44 attempts, 3 more TDs, and a significant improvement to 4.15 ypc.As for passing, last year Detroit was 316/586 (53.9%) for 3470 passing yards (5.92 ypa), 16 TDs, and 32 interceptions, for an overall QB rating of 58.0. Maurile is projecting improvements in completion percentage (to 58.2%), TDs, interceptions, and QB rating (to 74.7).

It seems there is a lot of complaining about droppping by 146 passing yards while ignoring the projected improvements in every other category.

The question is not whether the projected drop in passing is small, but how do you project the passing numbers to be WORSE with Burleson added, Best (to increase RB pass options and force defenses to run focus), Calvin projected to play 16, Stafford in his second year and the clearly better defense to get the ball back sooner and in better position?

 

[Tau837]

Also, Maurile is not projecting "worse numbers".

Overall

510 pass attempts for 297 receptions, 3324 yards, 19 touchdowns, and 19 interceptions; 449 rushes for 1864 yards and 12 touchdowns.

He is projecting a significant increase in rushing over last year's performance of 405/1608/9 (3.97 ypc). He's projecting another 44 attempts, 3 more TDs, and a significant improvement to 4.15 ypc.As for passing, last year Detroit was 316/586 (53.9%) for 3470 passing yards (5.92 ypa), 16 TDs, and 32 interceptions, for an overall QB rating of 58.0. Maurile is projecting improvements in completion percentage (to 58.2%), TDs, interceptions, and QB rating (to 74.7).

It seems there is a lot of complaining about droppping by 146 passing yards while ignoring the projected improvements in every other category.

The question is not whether the projected drop in passing is small, but how do you project the passing numbers to be WORSE with Burleson added, Best (to increase RB pass options and force defenses to run focus), Calvin projected to play 16, Stafford in his second year and the clearly better defense to get the ball back sooner and in better position?

He didn't project passing numbers to be worse. He projected 76 fewer passing attempts but more TDs, fewer interceptions, improved completion percentage, and improved ypa. And the projected improvement is by fairly substantial margins. People are looking at the total passing yards and not everything else... it's not that hard to understand.ETA: And I don't think you should assume he projects Calvin (or any player) to play 16. He doesn't show projected games, and I suspect he is projecting less than 16 games for most, if not all, players, based on historical trends. But Maurile will have to explain that.

Meanwhile, for those who disagree with his projections, let's see your projections.

 

[nysfl2]

Also, Maurile is not projecting "worse numbers".

Overall

510 pass attempts for 297 receptions, 3324 yards, 19 touchdowns, and 19 interceptions; 449 rushes for 1864 yards and 12 touchdowns.

He is projecting a significant increase in rushing over last year's performance of 405/1608/9 (3.97 ypc). He's projecting another 44 attempts, 3 more TDs, and a significant improvement to 4.15 ypc.As for passing, last year Detroit was 316/586 (53.9%) for 3470 passing yards (5.92 ypa), 16 TDs, and 32 interceptions, for an overall QB rating of 58.0. Maurile is projecting improvements in completion percentage (to 58.2%), TDs, interceptions, and QB rating (to 74.7).

It seems there is a lot of complaining about droppping by 146 passing yards while ignoring the projected improvements in every other category.

The question is not whether the projected drop in passing is small, but how do you project the passing numbers to be WORSE with Burleson added, Best (to increase RB pass options and force defenses to run focus), Calvin projected to play 16, Stafford in his second year and the clearly better defense to get the ball back sooner and in better position?

He may also be accounting for the fact that Detroit's defense should be improved next year, leading to closer games and fewer garbage time passing yards.

 

[PhantomJB]

Meanwhile, for those who disagree with his projections, let's see your projections.

I'm projecting Megatron at 78 catches, 1085 yds, 14 yds/catch and 8 TD's. Here is the backup.http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_...sort/receptions

Go to the above 2009 stats website. It will show that Johnson ranked #32 in receptions and #27 in yards. But if you sort by targets as indicated in the table below, you will see that he ranked #11.

This resulted in a 49% "catch %", the lowest of the Top 20 receivers. THIS IS THE KEY STAT THAT RESULTED IN HIS LOWER THAN EXPECTED TOTAL CATCHES IN 2009. It also makes total sense given the amount of double and triple teams he got last year, plus the injuries that limited his ability to separate.

Personally, I see no reason why his targets would decrease next year, and keeping him at 136 keeps the projection conservative IMO. With the additions of Burleson, Scheffler and Best and both Stafford and the whole offense in its 2nd year, I see Megatron increasing his "catch %" significantly to, call it 57%, which is still below last year's overall receiver averages. I kept his Y/catch in between his own 2009 average of 15yds and overall top 10 average of 13 yds.

2009 Top 20 Targeted Receivers

Catches Targets Catch % Yards Y/Catch TDs

1 A. Johnson 101 170 59% 1569 15.5 9

2 R. White 85 165 52% 1153 13.6 11

3 W. Welker 123 162 76% 1348 11 4

4 S. Smith (NYG) 107 159 67% 1220 11.4 7

5 B. Marshall 101 154 66% 1120 11.1 10

6 L. Fitzgerald 97 153 63% 1092 11.3 13

7 R. Wayne 100 149 67% 1264 12.6 10

8 R. Moss 83 138 60% 1264 15.2 13

S. Holmes 79 138 57% 1248 15.8 5

10 H. Ward 95 137 69% 1167 12.3 6

11 C. Johnson 67 136 49% 984 14.7 5

12 T. Gonzalez 83 135 61% 867 10.4 6

TJ Housh 79 135 59% 911 11.5 3

14 D. Mason 73 132 55% 1028 14.1 7

D. Clark 100 132 76% 1106 11.1 10

16 S. Smith (CAR) 65 130 50% 982 15.1 7

17 V. Davis 78 129 60% 965 12.4 13

18 C. Ochocinco 72 128 56% 1047 14.5 9

19 K. Winslow 77 127 61% 884 11.5 5

20 A. Boldin 84 126 67% 1024 12.2 4

Avgs (Top 20) 87.45 141.75 62% 1112.15 12.865 7.85

Avgs (Top 10) 97.1 152.5 64% 1244.5 12.98 8.8

C. Johnson (catch % =57%) 77.52 136 57% 1085.28 14 8

From a talent perspective, I think Johnson is easily Top 10. There are well documented reasons why his 2009 production didn't match his talent. With most of those reasons ostensibly addressed, his stats should re-align with his talent. Overlaying this onto the overall 2009 league averages is the approach I would take in arriving at Megatron's stats, which are most relevant from a FF standpoint. The other Lions' role players will revolve around Calvin's stats.

 

[bmsarvis]

this could be the first year Calvin isnt triple teamed. Im looking forward to seeing what he can do

 

[Tau837]

I see Megatron increasing his "catch %" significantly to, call it 57%

Calvin's catch percentage by year:2007 - 50.5%2008 - 51.7%2009 - 48.9%I agree that his catch percentage has contributed to him not performing better and that it is lower than other WRs with similar talent. However, this could be due to a number of factors:1. Double and triple coverage2. Runs mostly medium and deep routes, which tend to be lower percentage3. He just doesn't have great hands - he had 8 drops last yearI'm not sure I see any justification to think he will suddenly elevate his catch percentage well above where it has been for 3 years running. If I am an opposing defense, I'll still be doubling Calvin and challenging Burleson and Best to beat me.

 

[Scooby1974]

I agree that his catch percentage has contributed to him not performing better and that it is lower than other WRs with similar talent. However, this could be due to a number of factors:

1. Double and triple coverage

2. Runs mostly medium and deep routes, which tend to be lower percentage

3. He just doesn't have great hands - he had 8 drops last year

I'm not sure I see any justification to think he will suddenly elevate his catch percentage well above where it has been for 3 years running. If I am an opposing defense, I'll still be doubling Calvin and challenging Burleson and Best to beat me.

[/quote

I don't understand why Detroit wouldn't try to get Calvin the ball on some quick slants and jump balls like Denver did with Marshall last year. Run him some screens and crossing patterns. I could see CJ2 performing much the same way as Marshall, then add in the medium and deep routes as well to keep everyone guessing. Detroit has an absolute monster here, they have GOT to figure out how to get him open and increase that reception %. If they do, everyone wins.

 

[Da Guru]

I would bump up Bests receptions. From what I have been hearing the Lions are planning to use Best a little like Percy Harvin. Best will probably get quite a few WR screens and will be a good decoy for CJ when lined up in the slot.

CJs receptions are tough to predict due to his problems staying healthy. A 16 game CJ should have no problem pushing 85-90 receptions.

I see Stafford as a 20-20 guy this year.

 

[heidbrink]

I see Megatron increasing his "catch %" significantly to, call it 57%

Calvin's catch percentage by year:2007 - 50.5%

2008 - 51.7%

2009 - 48.9%

I agree that his catch percentage has contributed to him not performing better and that it is lower than other WRs with similar talent. However, this could be due to a number of factors:

1. Double and triple coverage

2. Runs mostly medium and deep routes, which tend to be lower percentage

3. He just doesn't have great hands - he had 8 drops last year

I'm not sure I see any justification to think he will suddenly elevate his catch percentage well above where it has been for 3 years running. If I am an opposing defense, I'll still be doubling Calvin and challenging Burleson and Best to beat me.

gotta say...that's the first time I've heard Megatron's hands questioned.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

I agree that his catch percentage has contributed to him not performing better and that it is lower than other WRs with similar talent. However, this could be due to a number of factors:

1. Double and triple coverage

2. Runs mostly medium and deep routes, which tend to be lower percentage

3. He just doesn't have great hands - he had 8 drops last year

I'm not sure I see any justification to think he will suddenly elevate his catch percentage well above where it has been for 3 years running. If I am an opposing defense, I'll still be doubling Calvin and challenging Burleson and Best to beat me.

[/quote

I don't understand why Detroit wouldn't try to get Calvin the ball on some quick slants and jump balls like Denver did with Marshall last year. Run him some screens and crossing patterns. I could see CJ2 performing much the same way as Marshall, then add in the medium and deep routes as well to keep everyone guessing. Detroit has an absolute monster here, they have GOT to figure out how to get him open and increase that reception %. If they do, everyone wins.

It was next to impossible to throw Calvin a slant because with no threat of a running game, the LBs dropped back into those zones and there was little room to throw. That doesn't count the CB and safety that were all around him.

 

[Scooby1974]

I agree that his catch percentage has contributed to him not performing better and that it is lower than other WRs with similar talent. However, this could be due to a number of factors:

1. Double and triple coverage

2. Runs mostly medium and deep routes, which tend to be lower percentage

3. He just doesn't have great hands - he had 8 drops last year

I'm not sure I see any justification to think he will suddenly elevate his catch percentage well above where it has been for 3 years running. If I am an opposing defense, I'll still be doubling Calvin and challenging Burleson and Best to beat me.

[/quote

I don't understand why Detroit wouldn't try to get Calvin the ball on some quick slants and jump balls like Denver did with Marshall last year. Run him some screens and crossing patterns. I could see CJ2 performing much the same way as Marshall, then add in the medium and deep routes as well to keep everyone guessing. Detroit has an absolute monster here, they have GOT to figure out how to get him open and increase that reception %. If they do, everyone wins.

It was next to impossible to throw Calvin a slant because with no threat of a running game, the LBs dropped back into those zones and there was little room to throw. That doesn't count the CB and safety that were all around him.

That makes complete sense. Looking forward, with Best drawing some attention out of the backfield, perhaps this is a route they can take THIS YEAR?

 

[Scooby1974]

I see Megatron increasing his "catch %" significantly to, call it 57%

Calvin's catch percentage by year:2007 - 50.5%

2008 - 51.7%

2009 - 48.9%

I agree that his catch percentage has contributed to him not performing better and that it is lower than other WRs with similar talent. However, this could be due to a number of factors:

1. Double and triple coverage

2. Runs mostly medium and deep routes, which tend to be lower percentage

3. He just doesn't have great hands - he had 8 drops last year

I'm not sure I see any justification to think he will suddenly elevate his catch percentage well above where it has been for 3 years running. If I am an opposing defense, I'll still be doubling Calvin and challenging Burleson and Best to beat me.

gotta say...that's the first time I've heard Megatron's hands questioned.

Same! Check out these hands... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vZ20h3p3k2Q

 

[Tau837]

I see Megatron increasing his "catch %" significantly to, call it 57%

Calvin's catch percentage by year:2007 - 50.5%

2008 - 51.7%

2009 - 48.9%

I agree that his catch percentage has contributed to him not performing better and that it is lower than other WRs with similar talent. However, this could be due to a number of factors:

1. Double and triple coverage

2. Runs mostly medium and deep routes, which tend to be lower percentage

3. He just doesn't have great hands - he had 8 drops last year

I'm not sure I see any justification to think he will suddenly elevate his catch percentage well above where it has been for 3 years running. If I am an opposing defense, I'll still be doubling Calvin and challenging Burleson and Best to beat me.

gotta say...that's the first time I've heard Megatron's hands questioned.

There was quite a bit of discussion about his hands in the Dynasty Rankings thread a few weeks back, if you're interested.Also, note that I said it *could* be due to those factors. I'm not saying he has bad hands, I just think it's possible he doesn't have great hands... which would contribute to a poor catch percentage. There must be a reason for his drops.

 

[PhantomJB]

I see Megatron increasing his "catch %" significantly to, call it 57%

Calvin's catch percentage by year:2007 - 50.5%

2008 - 51.7%

2009 - 48.9%

I agree that his catch percentage has contributed to him not performing better and that it is lower than other WRs with similar talent. However, this could be due to a number of factors:

1. Double and triple coverage

2. Runs mostly medium and deep routes, which tend to be lower percentage

3. He just doesn't have great hands - he had 8 drops last year

I'm not sure I see any justification to think he will suddenly elevate his catch percentage well above where it has been for 3 years running. If I am an opposing defense, I'll still be doubling Calvin and challenging Burleson and Best to beat me.

gotta say...that's the first time I've heard Megatron's hands questioned.

There was quite a bit of discussion about his hands in the Dynasty Rankings thread a few weeks back, if you're interested.Also, note that I said it *could* be due to those factors. I'm not saying he has bad hands, I just think it's possible he doesn't have great hands... which would contribute to a poor catch percentage. There must be a reason for his drops.

That's fine. Keep his catch % at 50%. But then this becomes almost completely a projection based on historicals (and not presumed positive changes to situation as noted above) so it would then make sense to bump his 2010 targets up to a full season since he only played 14 games (really only 12-13 since he got injured I think during the PIT game and was totally hobbled in the SEA game). 16/14 * 136 = 155 * 50% = 78. Same answer and still conservative IMO. Those # of targets are very consistent with other receivers in his talent tier in 2009 including AJ, Fitz, White and Marshall.Anyway, to each his own.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

I am using a catch percentage of 49.38 for Calvin Johnson. I believe that's above his career percentage.

I love Johnson's skills. But I'm already giving him 50% of the Lions' WR targets. I can't see going any higher than that. (Calvin Johnson and Andre Johnson are the only two WRs in the league that high, and I think I only have two other guys higher than 40 percent.)

It is possible that I have the Lions' WRs as a group getting too few targets. Right now, I have the WRs getting 53% of the team's targets, which is the same as they got last year. That's a bit below average, but not super extreme. It's higher than the Saints, Niners, or Raiders, and pretty similar to the Titans, Chargers, Cowboys, Ravens, Redskins, and Bucs.

 

[Tau837]

I see Megatron increasing his "catch %" significantly to, call it 57%

Calvin's catch percentage by year:2007 - 50.5%

2008 - 51.7%

2009 - 48.9%

I agree that his catch percentage has contributed to him not performing better and that it is lower than other WRs with similar talent. However, this could be due to a number of factors:

1. Double and triple coverage

2. Runs mostly medium and deep routes, which tend to be lower percentage

3. He just doesn't have great hands - he had 8 drops last year

I'm not sure I see any justification to think he will suddenly elevate his catch percentage well above where it has been for 3 years running. If I am an opposing defense, I'll still be doubling Calvin and challenging Burleson and Best to beat me.

gotta say...that's the first time I've heard Megatron's hands questioned.

There was quite a bit of discussion about his hands in the Dynasty Rankings thread a few weeks back, if you're interested.Also, note that I said it *could* be due to those factors. I'm not saying he has bad hands, I just think it's possible he doesn't have great hands... which would contribute to a poor catch percentage. There must be a reason for his drops.

That's fine. Keep his catch % at 50%. But then this becomes almost completely a projection based on historicals (and not presumed positive changes to situation as noted above)

I'm not saying it has to be the same as historical averages. What I'm saying is that there should normally be some justification for expecting a radical change in performance.Certainly there are plenty of valid projections made because someone thinks another player will break out and outperform what he's done in the past. That's fine. In this case, I think Johnson has established a fairly consistent track record over a reasonably large sample size, and I'm not personally seeing any justification for such a huge increase.

 

[gheemony]

I agree that his catch percentage has contributed to him not performing better and that it is lower than other WRs with similar talent. However, this could be due to a number of factors:

1. Double and triple coverage

2. Runs mostly medium and deep routes, which tend to be lower percentage

3. He just doesn't have great hands - he had 8 drops last year

I'm not sure I see any justification to think he will suddenly elevate his catch percentage well above where it has been for 3 years running. If I am an opposing defense, I'll still be doubling Calvin and challenging Burleson and Best to beat me.

[/quote

I don't understand why Detroit wouldn't try to get Calvin the ball on some quick slants and jump balls like Denver did with Marshall last year. Run him some screens and crossing patterns. I could see CJ2 performing much the same way as Marshall, then add in the medium and deep routes as well to keep everyone guessing. Detroit has an absolute monster here, they have GOT to figure out how to get him open and increase that reception %. If they do, everyone wins.

The way to check this is with yards per target. WRs that run deep and medium routes are not penalized for lower catch percentages on more difficult routes. Makes it easier to compare a Wes Welker to someone like Calvin.

 

[PhantomJB]

I am using a catch percentage of 49.38 for Calvin Johnson. I believe that's above his career percentage.I love Johnson's skills. But I'm already giving him 50% of the Lions' WR targets. I can't see going any higher than that. (Calvin Johnson and Andre Johnson are the only two WRs in the league that high, and I think I only have two other guys higher than 40 percent.)It is possible that I have the Lions' WRs as a group getting too few targets. Right now, I have the WRs getting 53% of the team's targets, which is the same as they got last year. That's a bit below average, but not super extreme. It's higher than the Saints, Niners, or Raiders, and pretty similar to the Titans, Chargers, Cowboys, Ravens, Redskins, and Bucs.

First, I completely appreciate and respect both the methodology and work put into these projections and so hopefully my comments are more feedback than argumentative.As a Lions fan with unbridled optimism, Johnson's numbers stood out on the low end but then realized I was looking at them in a vacuum just here in this thread. So I went through all your individual team projection threads just to understand a little more the overall methodology and also to see what CJ's ranking and numbers would be relative to the rest of the league. I'm sure at some point the composite projections will be coming out which rank everyone next to each other (or does it exist somewhere I haven't seen?). But in case they haven't, here is a manual compilation sorted by yards and I may have missed a few guys since I did it fairly quickly. Just another way I suppose to provide a top-down overlay and reality check in addition to the exhaustive bottom-up methodology, which I'm sure will be done at some point.Personally, I would be surprised if Nicks, Ward and Cotchery outperform Megatron for the season but stranger things have happened. But lining them up side-by-side helps put the whole thread into perspective so none of us gets overly caught up in arguing any particular projection in a vaccum before all the projections are finalized and posted. Catches Yds1 L. Fitzgerald 104 13752 A. Johnson 97 12983 R. Wayne 92 12324 M. Austin 77 11665 R. White 81 11296 G. Jennings 75 11097 C. Ochocinco 78 10848 S. Rice 77 10639 R. Moss 73 105910 S. Smith (CAR) 77 105611 H. Nicks 70 102912 H. Ward 86 102813 J. Cotchery 79 98714 T. Gonzalez 87 97415 C. Johnson 67 97316 D. Clark 86 95917 L. Evans 66 95518 D. Jackson 63 94319 M. Colston 69 94020 V. Jackson 58 93121 A. Boldin 69 89022 B. Marshall 71 875 Other Notables A. Gates 71 880 M. Crabtree 61 797 V. Davis 80 893 S. Smith 85 897 K. Britt 61 915

 

[red stripe]

Really think this is a case of people looking more at last year than the situation how are the Lions not going to be much improved on offense with a little bit of luck everyone here has a lot of upside. They have clearly improved the team in EVERY WAY only possible exception might be defensive backfield but it's going to be difficult to be any worse than the last couple years. Not going to try to project but I think most would agree Calvin is a transcendant talent at WR and those types of players tend to rise to the top

 

[Bradford4Prez]

Maurile,

I find it very, very hard to believe that Kevin Smith will have more catches and yards than Best. He's a probable backup to a sexy new RB with good receiving skills.

Just my two cents

 

[whitewizard]

in respect to his hands, they are not black holes of awesomeness, but they are not bad by any stretch of the imagination. usually he comes up in the clutch as long as he has some day light between him and his 4 defenders.

he will have better production this year with more experience in the system, with the guys around him, and with better weapons to draw the coverage off him.

the offense will not have to be run through him to be successful, which will let him be good and have more opportunities.

 

[saintfool]

Derrick Williams: 7 receptions for 89 yards and 1 touchdowns; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

so speedy williams has almost no value or opportunity as the slot WR?

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

I'd say MT predicting 0 stats for our third string QB is a good sign. In years past that guy would have three starts listed.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

See the pinned thread for links to each team spotlight.

I'll start off by posting my projections to get us going. The idea is for others to post their own projections as well, or to comment on the projections posted by others.

Overall

510 pass attempts for 297 receptions, 3324 yards, 19 touchdowns, and 19 interceptions; 449 rushes for 1864 yards and 12 touchdowns.

QB

Matthew Stafford: 277 of 478 passing for 3109 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 18 interceptions; 49 rushes for 223 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Shaun Hill: 20 of 32 passing for 215 yards, 1 touchdowns, and 1 interceptions; 3 rushes for 14 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Drew Stanton: 0 of 0 passing for 0 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

RB

Jahvid Best: 174 rushes for 713 yards and 5 touchdowns; 28 receptions for 201 yards and 1 touchdowns.

Kevin Smith: 97 rushes for 372 yards and 2 touchdowns; 32 receptions for 252 yards and 1 touchdowns.

Maurice Morris: 77 rushes for 325 yards and 1 touchdowns; 8 receptions for 55 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Aaron Brown: 8 rushes for 32 yards and 0 touchdowns; 5 receptions for 36 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Cedric Peerman: 12 rushes for 48 yards and 0 touchdowns; 3 receptions for 23 yards and 0 touchdowns.

DeDe Dorsey: 8 rushes for 34 yards and 0 touchdowns; 2 receptions for 12 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Jerome Felton: 12 rushes for 47 yards and 0 touchdowns; 3 receptions for 19 yards and 0 touchdowns.

WR

Calvin Johnson: 67 receptions for 973 yards and 6 touchdowns; 6rushes for 34 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Nate Burleson: 31 receptions for 392 yards and 3 touchdowns; 2rushes for 11 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Bryant Johnson: 14 receptions for 160 yards and 1 touchdowns; 2rushes for 11 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Derrick Williams: 7 receptions for 89 yards and 1 touchdowns; 0rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Dennis Northcutt: 8 receptions for 95 yards and 0 touchdowns; 0rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Brian Clark: 8 receptions for 84 yards and 0 touchdowns; 0rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Adam Jennings: 8 receptions for 94 yards and 1 touchdowns; 0rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

TE

Brandon Pettigrew: 29 receptions for 302 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Tony Scheffler: 39 receptions for 476 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Will Heller: 8 receptions for 63 yards and 1 touchdowns.

Jake Nordin: 0 receptions for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Dan Gronkowski: 0 receptions for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

All I will say is I think you are WAYYYYYY off the reservation with this projection.

Considering out of 3 years he has had only one season above those numbers(in general). I don't think he is WAYYYYY off the reservation.

He put up 67/984/5 last season. A season in which he missed two full games, as well as being significantly injured for a portion of the other games. The games he did play in, he had a rookie QB in Stafford or two of the worst QB's to start games last season in Culpepper and Stanton. The Lions have added Best, Sheffler and Burleson to take some pressure off of Johnson this offseason. Stafford is a year older. Short of injury, I don't see any way Calvin's numbers stay right where they were last season. He put up 78/1331/12 as a ROOKIE, on a team that was absolutely awful. I have said it in every thread where Calvin is discussed and I will repeat it here. If he does not get injured, Calvin is an 80/1200/9 WR at a minimum, and I would bet the house that he ends up closer to 90/1400/15 than he does to the numbers Maurile has projected here. There are a lot of people here who are missing the boat on Calvin.

what he said.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

See the pinned thread for links to each team spotlight.

I'll start off by posting my projections to get us going. The idea is for others to post their own projections as well, or to comment on the projections posted by others.

Overall

510 pass attempts for 297 receptions, 3324 yards, 19 touchdowns, and 19 interceptions; 449 rushes for 1864 yards and 12 touchdowns.

QB

Matthew Stafford: 277 of 478 passing for 3109 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 18 interceptions; 49 rushes for 223 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Shaun Hill: 20 of 32 passing for 215 yards, 1 touchdowns, and 1 interceptions; 3 rushes for 14 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Drew Stanton: 0 of 0 passing for 0 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

RB

Jahvid Best: 174 rushes for 713 yards and 5 touchdowns; 28 receptions for 201 yards and 1 touchdowns.

Kevin Smith: 97 rushes for 372 yards and 2 touchdowns; 32 receptions for 252 yards and 1 touchdowns.

Maurice Morris: 77 rushes for 325 yards and 1 touchdowns; 8 receptions for 55 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Aaron Brown: 8 rushes for 32 yards and 0 touchdowns; 5 receptions for 36 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Cedric Peerman: 12 rushes for 48 yards and 0 touchdowns; 3 receptions for 23 yards and 0 touchdowns.

DeDe Dorsey: 8 rushes for 34 yards and 0 touchdowns; 2 receptions for 12 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Jerome Felton: 12 rushes for 47 yards and 0 touchdowns; 3 receptions for 19 yards and 0 touchdowns.

WR

Calvin Johnson: 67 receptions for 973 yards and 6 touchdowns; 6rushes for 34 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Nate Burleson: 31 receptions for 392 yards and 3 touchdowns; 2rushes for 11 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Bryant Johnson: 14 receptions for 160 yards and 1 touchdowns; 2rushes for 11 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Derrick Williams: 7 receptions for 89 yards and 1 touchdowns; 0rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Dennis Northcutt: 8 receptions for 95 yards and 0 touchdowns; 0rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Brian Clark: 8 receptions for 84 yards and 0 touchdowns; 0rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Adam Jennings: 8 receptions for 94 yards and 1 touchdowns; 0rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

TE

Brandon Pettigrew: 29 receptions for 302 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Tony Scheffler: 39 receptions for 476 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Will Heller: 8 receptions for 63 yards and 1 touchdowns.

Jake Nordin: 0 receptions for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Dan Gronkowski: 0 receptions for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

All I will say is I think you are WAYYYYYY off the reservation with this projection.

Considering out of 3 years he has had only one season above those numbers(in general). I don't think he is WAYYYYY off the reservation.

He put up 67/984/5 last season. A season in which he missed two full games, as well as being significantly injured for a portion of the other games. The games he did play in, he had a rookie QB in Stafford or two of the worst QB's to start games last season in Culpepper and Stanton. The Lions have added Best, Sheffler and Burleson to take some pressure off of Johnson this offseason. Stafford is a year older. Short of injury, I don't see any way Calvin's numbers stay right where they were last season. He put up 78/1331/12 as a ROOKIE, on a team that was absolutely awful. I have said it in every thread where Calvin is discussed and I will repeat it here. If he does not get injured, Calvin is an 80/1200/9 WR at a minimum, and I would bet the house that he ends up closer to 90/1400/15 than he does to the numbers Maurile has projected here. There are a lot of people here who are missing the boat on Calvin.

He put up 48 for 756 4 tds as a rookie.I think Calvin is a heck of an athlete....but I think he will never live up to the expectations.

Plus adding all the talent around him...could diminish his #'s....look at Colston and Jennings last year.

Calvin isn't just a "number 1 receiver" He is a freak of nature and a god with wheels and moves. IF the offense takes a step frorward CJ will blow up, The only thing keeping him down (besides injuries) is the fact that teams 2x and 3x cover him because the other areas of the offense were weak as hell. No way teams can devote that kind of attention to him with Burleson, scheffler and Best/smith combo. Plus stafford has a full year under his belt. And a full offseason to work. I'm excited at what this year could bring.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

I think Calvin is a heck of an athlete....but I think he will never live up to the expectations.

Plus adding all the talent around him...could diminish his #'s....look at Colston and Jennings last year.

Calvin is 10x the talent of both. Detroit also does not have an apt Drew Brees in a spread offense, nor the weapons that GB has even after their offseason additions. I usually agree on these boards but im betting Calvin Johnson comes close to his 1300yrd season then the one he's projected here barring injury. Either way i hope people view it this way so i can get Calvin much cheaper then I anticipated. I just dont see it however

These are the things that get people carried away with stats or perceptions of players. Detroit remember how awesome Boss Bailey was going to be?

I think Calvin is talented and can produce....but the year in year out top 3 dynasty WR and 1500 yard 15 TD seasons are hard to live up to.

go watch the tape. you are arguing theory, CJ is fact (video exhibit A) .He's randy Moss but he went to Georgia Tech. Too many guys argue #'s, not enough have seen enough G Tech/Lions names to know how truly awesome he is.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Just becase