Team Spotlight: Washington Redskins (1 Viewer)

[Maurile Tremblay]

See the pinned thread for links to each team spotlight.

I'll start off by posting my projections to get us going. The idea is for others to post their own projections as well, or to comment on the projections posted by others.

Overall

511 pass attempts for 308 receptions, 3399 yards, 20 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions; 433 rushes for 1818 yards and 13 touchdowns.

QB

Donovan McNabb: 290 of 479 passing for 3197 yards, 19 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions; 50 rushes for 263 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Rex Grossman: 18 of 32 passing for 202 yards, 1 touchdowns, and 1 interceptions; 3 rushes for 5 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Richard Bartel: 0 of 0 passing for 0 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Colt Brennan: 0 of 0 passing for 0 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

RB

Clinton Portis: 180 rushes for 748 yards and 5 touchdowns; 22 receptions for 171 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Larry Johnson: 75 rushes for 297 yards and 2 touchdowns; 10 receptions for 85 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Willie Parker: 67 rushes for 270 yards and 1 touchdowns; 15 receptions for 112 yards and 1 touchdowns.

P.J. Hill: 19 rushes for 73 yards and 1 touchdowns; 4 receptions for 32 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Anthony Alridge: 19 rushes for 73 yards and 1 touchdowns; 4 receptions for 27 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Ryan Torain: 15 rushes for 59 yards and 0 touchdowns; 3 receptions for 21 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Mike Sellers: 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns; 15 receptions for 109 yards and 1 touchdowns.

WR

Santana Moss: 49 receptions for 691 yards and 4 touchdowns; 3 rushes for 15 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Devin Thomas: 46 receptions for 545 yards and 3 touchdowns; 3 rushes for 15 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Malcolm Kelly: 40 receptions for 525 yards and 2 touchdowns; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Marko Mitchell: 16 receptions for 201 yards and 1 touchdowns; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Terrence Austin: 6 receptions for 81 yards and 0 touchdowns; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Anthony Armstrong: 0 receptions for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Roydell Williams: 0 receptions for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Marques Hagans: 0 receptions for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

TE

Chris Cooley: 47 receptions for 503 yards and 4 touchdowns.

Fred Davis: 26 receptions for 263 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Sean Ryan: 4 receptions for 33 yards and 0 touchdowns.

 

[dgreen]

 

[fatness]

I think the combined reception numbers for Kelly and Thomas will be close to what you predict, but I have no idea at all how it will break down between them. I'd think Thomas would get the edge because Kelly is more likely to be injured.

I think the passing totals for McNabb are low. I think the reception #'s for TE's are low, as are the rushing totals for Portis. I think either Johnson or Parker will not make the team.

 

[(HULK)]

Clinton Portis: 180 rushes for 748 yards and 5 touchdowns; 22 receptions for 171 yards and 0 touchdowns.Larry Johnson: 75 rushes for 297 yards and 2 touchdowns; 10 receptions for 85 yards and 0 touchdowns.Willie Parker: 67 rushes for 270 yards and 1 touchdowns; 15 receptions for 112 yards and 1 touchdowns.

You really think thats all Shanahan can get out of these 3?I would suggest that the team will rush for much more than the 1520 you project. They rushed for 1510 last year. They added a pro-bowl QB who will keep defenses honest, and a future Hall of Fame coach who is known for getting more out of running backs than people thought those backs were capable of. And you gave them a 10 yard bump in total rushing yardage.Shanahan's Recent History of rushing yards with the Broncos:08: 1862 yards07: 195706: 215205: 253904: 233303: 262902: 226601: 187700: 2311I think projecting anything less than 2000 team rushing yards is a serious error.

 

[dgreen]

I would suggest that the team will rush for much more than the 1520 you project.

He projected:

433 rushes for 1818 yards and 13 touchdowns.

 

[(HULK)]

I would suggest that the team will rush for much more than the 1520 you project.

He projected:

433 rushes for 1818 yards and 13 touchdowns.

Doh! Over looked the QB and WR rushing numbers.I still think this team rushes for over 2K yards regardless.

 

[dgreen]

I think your YPA numbers are a bit low. You are projecting 6.65 yds per pass attempt. McNabb's career number is 6.93 and he's at 7.26 the last three seasons. In 2009, the Redskins (with Zorn, Campbell, and approximately 1 second of pass protection) were at 6.55. I don't think McNabb and Shanahan (both of them) are more important factors than last year's Redskins' YPA.

Coaching and offensive scheme the last couple years were absolutely pathetic. There will be a significant changes under this coaching staff. They will scheme ways to give the QB more time. McNabb will be able to improvise on his own to buy more time. I expect the screen game to improve and play diagrams to be more effective. McNabb throws a much better deep ball than Campbell, so they should connect on a few more of those.

 

[Mainevent]

Are the passing and receiving numbers supposed to align?

18 rec TDs =/= and 20 passing TDs

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Are the passing and receiving numbers supposed to align?

Yes. If I have one guy projected for 0.8 passing TDs, and two guys projected for 0.4 receiving TDs each, the numbers will align, but they won't look aligned after rounding.

 

[Mainevent]

Are the passing and receiving numbers supposed to align?

Yes. If I have one guy projected for 0.8 passing TDs, and two guys projected for 0.4 receiving TDs each, the numbers will align, but they won't look aligned after rounding.

Fair enough.ETA: Thanks for putting these projections out.

 

[dgreen]

I usually do projections in the Summer, but I may do some earlier. For now, I'm just going to throw out some more thoughts on MT's projections.

I think your total number of plays is too low. Right now, you have them at 944 plays, which doesn't include sacks. That's 20 more plays than last year's team and, as I've said, last year's team was pathetic and may not be the best place to start projections. The Texans (Kyle Shanahan) ran 1018 plays that did not result in a sack. I'm not saying that is the best comparison, either, but it might be closer than the 2009 Redskins. I'll probably start with a team projection of 1000 plays, which would include about 35 sacks. So, about 965 pass and rush attempts. The 1000 plays and 35 sacks would have been about average for the NFL in 2009. Of course, I think 2009 was a pretty crazy year, at least passing-wise. Not sure if those will hold up in 2010.

How did you go about getting your 944 offensive plays? Is total number of plays your starting point when making projections?

 

[Todem]

I am a huge Portis fan since his college days at the "U". But last season....he looked done. His burst which is the most important aspect of his running style...looks like it has slowed down a lot.

I look for Larry Johnson to emerge as the lead dog and have a pretty damm good year. Unless Portis has a major off-season and regains the burst that made him so electric then his days as a lead back are over. Johnson in a very limted role looked pretty good last season with the Bengals.....and I am sure is fired up and ready to re-gain his starting status. Of course I could be way off-base. But I think Shanny wants a truck and Johnson is a big man with some deceptive speed and soft hands.

Johnson - 200 carries 1020 Yards 7 TD's 25 Receptions 200 Yards 2 TD's

Portis - 125 Carries 500 Yards 2 TD's 15 Receptions 113 Yards 0 TD's

Parker 70 Carries 240 Yards 0 TD's

 

[dgreen]

I am a huge Portis fan since his college days at the "U". But last season....he looked done. His burst which is the most important aspect of his running style...looks like it has slowed down a lot.

"Done" can be a tricky term. He was out of shape, unmotivated, and saw very few holes. IF he's in shape, motivated, and gets improved blocking, I think he'll miraculously no longer be "done".

 

[Todem]

I am a huge Portis fan since his college days at the "U". But last season....he looked done. His burst which is the most important aspect of his running style...looks like it has slowed down a lot.

"Done" can be a tricky term. He was out of shape, unmotivated, and saw very few holes. IF he's in shape, motivated, and gets improved blocking, I think he'll miraculously no longer be "done".

Hence the off-season mention. He needs a great off-season to get "it" back. I have my doubts though with his age and carries. Washington never used him right IMO. He has been beaten up pretty bad the last 3 years.

 

[Sidewinder16]

But I think Shanny wants a truck and Johnson is a big man with some deceptive speed and soft hands.

What makes you say that? His history with RBs would seem to suggest otherwise. Other than Mike Anderson, any RB to get 1000 yds under Shanahan has been in the 200-210 lb. range (Terrell Davis, Clinton Portis, Olandis Gary, Tatum Bell, Reuben Droughns).I'm not saying Johnson can't be "the guy". I'm just wondering why you think his size makes him the odds-on favorite.

 

[finito]

But I think Shanny wants a truck and Johnson is a big man with some deceptive speed and soft hands.

What makes you say that? His history with RBs would seem to suggest otherwise. Other than Mike Anderson, any RB to get 1000 yds under Shanahan has been in the 200-210 lb. range (Terrell Davis, Clinton Portis, Olandis Gary, Tatum Bell, Reuben Droughns).I'm not saying Johnson can't be "the guy". I'm just wondering why you think his size makes him the odds-on favorite.

Droughns was in the 220-225 area IIRC, he was a bit bigger than those other guys. But I see your point. Be interesting what Shanny does with these RBs.

 

[Sidewinder16]

But I think Shanny wants a truck and Johnson is a big man with some deceptive speed and soft hands.

What makes you say that? His history with RBs would seem to suggest otherwise. Other than Mike Anderson, any RB to get 1000 yds under Shanahan has been in the 200-210 lb. range (Terrell Davis, Clinton Portis, Olandis Gary, Tatum Bell, Reuben Droughns).I'm not saying Johnson can't be "the guy". I'm just wondering why you think his size makes him the odds-on favorite.

Droughns was in the 220-225 area IIRC, he was a bit bigger than those other guys. But I see your point. Be interesting what Shanny does with these RBs.

Hmm. You may be right. I was originally looking through PFR and they list Droughns weight at 207. Everywhere else seems to list him at 220.

 

[fatness]

But I think Shanny wants a truck and Johnson is a big man with some deceptive speed and soft hands.

What makes you say that? His history with RBs would seem to suggest otherwise. Other than Mike Anderson, any RB to get 1000 yds under Shanahan has been in the 200-210 lb. range (Terrell Davis, Clinton Portis, Olandis Gary, Tatum Bell, Reuben Droughns).I'm not saying Johnson can't be "the guy". I'm just wondering why you think his size makes him the odds-on favorite.

Droughns was in the 220-225 area IIRC, he was a bit bigger than those other guys. But I see your point. Be interesting what Shanny does with these RBs.

Wasn't Droughns on the roster as a fullback, and promoted to tailback due to several injuries to tailbacks?

 

[hooptd]

WR

Santana Moss: 49 receptions for 691 yards and 4 touchdowns; 3 rushes for 15 yards and 0 touchdowns.Devin Thomas: 46 receptions for 545 yards and 3 touchdowns; 3 rushes for 15 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Malcolm Kelly: 40 receptions for 525 yards and 2 touchdowns; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Marko Mitchell: 16 receptions for 201 yards and 1 touchdowns; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Terrence Austin: 6 receptions for 81 yards and 0 touchdowns; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Anthony Armstrong: 0 receptions for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Roydell Williams: 0 receptions for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Marques Hagans: 0 receptions for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

TE

Chris Cooley: 47 receptions for 503 yards and 4 touchdowns.

Fred Davis: 26 receptions for 263 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Sean Ryan: 4 receptions for 33 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Moss has had 70, 79 and 61 receptions in the last 3 years. Why do you think he'll only get 49 now that he's got a better QB throwing to him?

 

[dgreen]

Quotes from Kyle Shanahan:

"First thing with a third down back is you want a guy who can block. We have the best blocker as a back in Clinton Portis that I've ever been around," he said. "So I think we do have a third down back."

"You would always love to have that bonus as a coach, have some catching guys, stuff like that. But that's just a bonus," Shanahan said. "That's not necessarily what you're trying to win games with...But what you've got to have is a guy who can block and pick up protections. And we've got that."

Previously, Shanahan had also said that Portis is the #1 back. Then this:

"We honestly don't even talk about it. We haven't even talked about Clinton being the first. I just said that because I assume he is," Shanahan said. "It really doesn't matter. Whoever is best for that defense that week. There's no two or three. There's really no four or five. Bobby Turner, he's as good as any running back coach there ever was. He's got his way of working with those guys. He'll throw our last guy in with the second group sometimes to get that guy going, help someone out. So no one really knows until cuts come."

So, right now, Shanahan sees Portis as filling the 3rd down role. Of course, he references his blocking abilities and doesn't necessarily say that role will lead to a lot of receptions. But, it could be how Portis reaches a decent number of touches.

 

[dgreen]

My optimistic, but I hope not over-the-top-crazy optimistic, projections for the 2010 Washington Redskins:

Total Plays: 1,010Pass Plays: 570 (including sacks)Rush Plays: 440Total Yards: 5,545Pass Yards: 3,660 (including sack yardage)Rush Yards: 1,885Passing		 COMP  ATT  COMP%   YDS  Y/A  TD  INT  SACK SCKYDMcNabb	317  510   62.2  3695  7.2  23   11   27   200Grossman   18   30   60.0   180  6.0   1	2	3	15TOTAL	 335  540   62.0  3875  7.2  24   13   30   215Rushing		  ATT   YDS   YPA   TDPortis	200   850   4.3	7Johnson   150   625   4.2	5McNabb	 35   170   4.9	1Torain	 30   115   3.8	1Austin	  5	40   8.0	0Sellers	10	35   3.5	0Thomas	  5	30   6.0	0Moss		2	10   5.0	0Grossman	3	10   3.3	0TOTAL	 440  1885   4.3   14Receiving		   REC   YDS   YPR   TDMoss		50   665  13.3	4Cooley	  50   575  11.5	6Thomas	  40   530  13.3	5Kelly	   35   505  14.4	2Davis	   40   450  11.3	4Portis	  35   280   8.0	1Wade		20   255  12.8	1Torain	  25   175   7.0	1Galloway	10   150  15.0	0Austin	  10   140  14.0	0Johnson	 10	75   7.5	0Sellers	 10	75   7.5	0TOTAL	  335  3875  11.6   24