Teams Looking For RBs Next Yr, Per Pasquarelli (1 Viewer)

[zamboni]

-- Tailbacks Will Be In Demand Despite Flukish Stats -- from FFMastermind.com ESPN's Len Pasquarelli reports only four of the top 10 teams in the league in rushing offense are currently either in or tied for first place in their divisions, a dramatic reduction from the past few seasons. And just three of the NFL's top 10 individual rushers play for clubs currently holding first-place perches. But based on discussions over the past week with several NFL general managers, talks that revolved around looking forward to offseason personnel priorities, this disconnect between the running game and overall success is largely regarded as an aberration. The prevailing wisdom is that you still win by running the football -- the record for teams that have rushed 30 or more times in games through the first 12 weeks of the 2003 campaign is 119-30 -- and that's why several teams will be ardently seeking to really upgrade their backfields after this season. No team figures to be more aggressive in rectifying its tailback situation than the Dallas Cowboys, where HC Bill Parcells almost certainly won't go into a second season with RB Troy Hambrick as the starter, and will do just about whatever it takes to land a quality runner. The Detroit Lions have go get some running game help for QB Joey Harrington, or their young quarterback could continue to regress, as he has in some areas this year. Oakland needs some new blood at the position and, with QB Tom Brady emerging now as one of the NFL's top quarterbacks, imagine how much better the New England offense could be if the Patriots land a top-shelf runner. The Washington Redskins, Pittsburgh Steelers and Tampa Bay Bucs must galvanize the tailback position. Tennessee could be in that group as well, depending on the future of RB Eddie George, whose contract now greatly outdistances his production. Of course, the problem for any team seeking to upgrade at tailback is that there are not many standout veterans who will be in the free agent pool, and the strength of the position in the draft probably won't be discernable until the underclass prospects commit. This is not, as it currently stacks up, a particularly strong senior assemblage of tailbacks. As for the veterans, RB Duce Staley of Philadelphia could be the best of a dubious crop, and some team might have to overpay to land the former Eagles starter. --------------------With perhaps a few exceptions, I think he nailed most teams that will likely be looking for new starting RBs next year.That said, he is the only observer I've heard so far that has said it could be a weak RB draft (although to be fair, he said it depends on who declares for the draft)Also, I disagree with his comment about some team perhaps "overpaying" to land Staley. I don't see any team making such a move. I'd be surprised if Staley even gets signed away to be the de facto starter - to compete to be a starter, sure, but not to be the man.

 

[Sinrman]

It will be a very interesting offseason, indeed. But there aren't many big names that will be available next season for teams to pick up. Since I haven't followed college football as closely as years before, I can't really comment on the RB crop for 2004. But what I have read, along with Pasquarelli, all point to a weaker crop than in recent years. I wouldn't be surprised to see my boy Chris Perry of Michigan going out for the draft, and unless he is blackballed or something, Maurice Clarett likely will too if he's within the age range. Other than that, I really wouldn't know.But either way, I don't think it will matter as much, since a lot of those teams that Pasquarelli mentions won't want to spend much time grooming a rookie RB and waiting for a rookie to develop. But where to go? Staley? I'm not too convinced about him being a solid producer. Others I could see being let go could be James Stewart, Stacy Mack, and Charlie Garner. The Lions do indeed to make a change at RB and get some younger talent to help out Harrington, Rogers, etc. With the rise of Davis, I don't see a place for Mack in Houston anymore, so it wouldn't surprise me to see him let go. And finally, I think Oakland will finally take the hit and fully start the youth movement there, and make way for Justin Fargas.

 

[Genghis Khan]

Barry Sanders and Ricky Watters sighting!

 

[Greg R]

Don't be surprised if you see Houston let Mack go, and then draft another RB with kick returning ability in the draft to be their third RB and to backup JJ Moses as the special teams guy. But I don't think they'll pay any kind of early round pick for one.

 

[sparkky]

I thought Mack only signed a one year deal anyway. So, ya I'm thinking he's available to someone.

 

[Slash]

Kevan Barlow will be a hot commodity this off-season. Dallas and Pittsburgh have been rumored to really like his skills, and these two teams are in need of a new future starter. Either Barlow is starting elsewhere next year because a team pries Barlow away from SF through restricted free agency, or a team forces San Francisco's hand into making Barlow the starter in SF next year with a nice new contract.

 

[johnny bravo]

I wouldn't be surprised to see my boy Chris Perry of Michigan going out for the draft,

i'm surprised "your boy" hasn't informed you that he is a senior.

 

[zamboni]

Monday morning bump - particularly for those keeper/dynasty leaguers out of contention

 

[Couch Potato]

Of the teams Lenny P. mentions, I think the four most likely to take a RB in round 1 of the NFL draft are Detroit, Tampa Bay, Dallas and New England.(1 or 2) SJackson, (1 or 2) KJones, (3 or 4) CWilliams and one of (3 or 4) GJones/MTurner/CPerry/CHouston could go to those teams.Pittsburgh is in good position to land Manning or Roesthlisberger at QB in round 1 unless both Oakland and Arizona pick ahead of them and take these guys. If the QBs are gone, the Steelers may go RB in round one as well and end up with SJackson or KJones. They have some other needs though, and they may look at round 2 for a RB and get one of the other RBs mentioned above or another from a rather deep group (MMoore/CBenson/etc., depending on preference and who declares for the draft). Lenny also mentions Oakland, Tennessee and Washington as possible RB shoppers. I think the Raiders will give Fargas his shot before they invest big money or a high pick in a RB. Maybe they'll do something in 2005 if Fargas doesn't shine, but not yet. Similarly, the Titans seem happy with their 2003 draftee Chris Brown, and I think he'll get his chance before they go looking elsewhere.Washington is a likely candidate to go after Kevan Barlow or Duce Staley; these players have the pass-catching ability needed in Spurrier's O, and Snyder has proven he has no problem going after vets. They also are going to audition Ladell Betts in the remaining weeks of 2003 to evaluate whether they need to go outside at all. I can see Washington drafting a RB on day one, just not in round 1.

 

[bostonfred2]

Pasquarelli didn't mention Corey Dillon (and probably can't), but he's all but gone from Cincinatti between his attitude and Rudi's production. New England has two first rounders with which to move up if a top RB really catches their eye. Not really Belicheck's style to trade up, but it's important to note.

 

[Big Score]

Didn't Fargas recently tear up his knee?If it was a bad knee injury, the Raiders could well be in the RB shopping mix.

 

[RKade]

Don't be surprised if you see Houston let Mack go, and then draft another RB with kick returning ability in the draft to be their third RB and to backup JJ Moses as the special teams guy. But I don't think they'll pay any kind of early round pick for one.

There was NEVER the Texans intention to keep Mack for more than one season, it's 100% that he will be gone after this year.And as for Dillon, there is NO way he is going to leave Cinn unless they can get a lot in return. Lewis has made it clear that Dillon is a special player and all great coaches know that players who produce big time, you don't just let go. What this article shows is that you can never have enough RBs in your stable since there are so few quality men who can tote the rock.Edit: What about Wheat? This guy never gets the pub but when he plays he is very solid IMO.

 

[Keerock]

Pittsburgh is in good position to land Manning or Roesthlisberger at QB in round 1 unless both Oakland and Arizona pick ahead of them and take these guys.

You are assuming that Roethlisberger enters the draft, which is far from a given. As a Redskin alum/fan (OK, I may start calling them the RedHawks soon), I hope he stays for his Senior year.

 

[Big Score]

And as for Dillon, there is NO way he is going to leave Cinn unless they can get a lot in return.

I think this is exactly what happens with Dillon. Cincy might even Franchise him just to make sure thay get a #1 pick out of him. Parcells & the Cowboys perhaps? Tuna has shown in the past he's not afraid to do a deal like this, ala Martin from the Pats to the Jets. Jerry Jones certainly isn't scared to spend money and he wants a winner.

 

[Couch Potato]

Didn't Fargas recently tear up his knee?If it was a bad knee injury, the Raiders could well be in the RB shopping mix.

MCL, not ACL. Much different time frame for healing.

 

[Couch Potato]

You are assuming that Roethlisberger enters the draft, which is far from a given. As a Redskin alum/fan (OK, I may start calling them the RedHawks soon), I hope he stays for his Senior year.

True, he hasn't stated he'll come out. Nor should he since the season isn't over. He needs to keep saying all the right things and be a team guy. I think that he will come out though. When a player can be a top-10 pick and land a big contract, he generally comes out. Peyton Manning didn't come out in 1997, and it worked out well for him, so maybe you'll get your wish.

 

[Big Score]

Didn't Fargas recently tear up his knee?If it was a bad knee injury, the Raiders could well be in the RB shopping mix.

MCL, not ACL. Much different time frame for healing.

Gotcha. That's why I said if it was a bad knee injury. Good to hear it was more of the minor variety.

 

[ravnzfan]

a little early for the 'left coasters' to be perusing the boards, isn't it Bruce?You've got a playoff game I thought you'd be scouting for, buddy!on topic...I'm not too sure about DillonLewis HAS to say the right things, as he WILLS the Bungles into playoff contention...at least until next week Rudi and Bennett have done exceptional work at the tailback position, and I'd expect CINN to free up the money w/Dillon to bolster the 'D' even morethis HC is a Defensive guy, after all, and would love to grab a McAllister-type as a shut down corner...maybe the Champ?, from Danny-boy

 

[beto]

I got to watch Kevin Jones against Virginia, he is a really nice RB. Excellent burst, speed and vision. He has also been working on his inside running and pass catching a lot this year. If he declares he will be a star.Chris Perry looked like an NFL player against a very good Ohio State D. His stock may be rising as well.

 

[Goat Herders]

Kevin Jones will be the first back taken.After that, even though I've been pimping Jackson all fall, its a toss-up between he and Cedric Benson. If you thought Perry looked good againt OhioState (he did), then you should have seen Benson plow through A & M for 280 and 4 scores at one of the most hostile environments in college football.HERD

 

[beto]

After that, even though I've been pimping Jackson all fall, its a toss-up between he and Cedric Benson. If you thought Perry looked good againt OhioState (he did), then you should have seen Benson plow through A & M for 280 and 4 scores at one of the most hostile environments in college football

You're kidding right? A&M is a joke this yearI've seen CB run a few time and I am not really that impressed. Not much wiggle there.

 

[RKade]

And as for Dillon, there is NO way he is going to leave Cinn unless they can get a lot in return.

I think this is exactly what happens with Dillon. Cincy might even Franchise him just to make sure thay get a #1 pick out of him. Parcells & the Cowboys perhaps? Tuna has shown in the past he's not afraid to do a deal like this, ala Martin from the Pats to the Jets. Jerry Jones certainly isn't scared to spend money and he wants a winner.

ONLY if a team is willing to give a top #1 pick for him will they possibly trade Cory, anything less won't happen.Cory is solid and Lewis seems to really like him. Does Dillon have a split personality? Yes but Lewis knows how great this guy is in their system. You don't see Dillon riding the pine and Rudi getting all the snaps do you? That just shows you how much Lewis likes him and knows they NEED him down the stretch.As for Dallas, their first round pick will be too low for Cinn to swap Dillon. No way in hell they do this.Cinn won't trade Dillon to Dallas, that's a 100% fact. I am sure though that Dallas would LOVE to make that trade though.

 

[RKade]

a little early for the 'left coasters' to be perusing the boards, isn't it Bruce?You've got a playoff game I thought you'd be scouting for, buddy!on topic...I'm not too sure about DillonLewis HAS to say the right things, as he WILLS the Bungles into playoff contention...at least until next week Rudi and Bennett have done exceptional work at the tailback position, and I'd expect CINN to free up the money w/Dillon to bolster the 'D' even morethis HC is a Defensive guy, after all, and would love to grab a McAllister-type as a shut down corner...maybe the Champ?, from Danny-boy

Doesn't make sense. Their defense is fine as is and can be bolstered through the draft and through cheap FA pickup in the offseason. Unless they can get a top 7 pick for Dillon they don't make the deal. Dillon doesn't hurt them cap wise and Rudi comes cheap.If you just think about his logically then it makes NO SENSE whatsoever to trade Dillon on "iffy" type players that may take years to develop. The guy can give you 1300 yards and CIN has NO reason to trade him for anything but a sure thing top pick.How about this: If YOU were the CIN GM, would you trade away Dillon for a late 1st round pick? If so, this will go down as the biggest mistake ever.

 

[Jason Wood]

Just wanted to make a point re: teams not having the patience to groom a rookie RB. Rookie RBs can, and often are studly from jump street. Getting a young talented RB with fresh legs is a great way to go for teams looking for an instant upgrade. Drafting a high round QB is an investment in patience, WRs often take two to three years before you know if you made the right decision, but by and large high round rookie RBs yield immediate dividends if they're ever meant to contribute.Cheers

 

[Goat Herders]

You're kidding right? A&M is a joke this yearI've seen CB run a few time and I am not really that impressed. Not much wiggle there.

We'll see, but I'm fairly certain when it comes time for the 2nd or 3rd RB to be chosen, Benson will be there. You don't have to be impressed. But the Texas O-line has been marginal at best all season. Despite that, the Longhorns have the most balanced offense in college football (only team over 220 in the ground and air each game) and Benson is a big component of why. To be frank, he has a style very similar to other notable Texas RBs like Ricky and Earl. He falls forward and runs low. Considering that he's the first UTexas back to go for 1000 yards in his first 3 season (Preist kept Ricky from getting 1000 as a freshman), I suspect the scouts will notice. Benson and Jones have almost identical stats (5.6ypc and 20TDs for Jones, 5.4 and 20 for Benson) if that matters to you.HERD

 

[Anarchy99]

I don't see Dillon being a Bengal next season. He has been a cancer on and off the field and IMO does not seem to be a good fit for the new coaching philosophy.I also think many are overvaluing Dillion. He has had a lot of miles and his tread will very soon be wearing thin. He's 28 with almost 2,000 caries. He's probably only got another 2 top seasons left in him. Those that think he is worth a Top 7 draft pick might be dreaming.This may be the perfect example of addition by subtraction. The Cowboys seemed to express an interest in him. It wouldn't shock me if the Boys gave up a second and a fourth rounder to get him, if they don't think they can get a decent RB late in the first.

 

[Sidewinder16]

Kevin Jones will be the first back taken.

FWIW, Jones is now saying he may stay another year. He was reported to say, before the UVa game, there was a 50/50 chance he would come out. Immediately after the game he was asked again and he said he is leaning more towards staying now. The team meltdown this year has left a bad taste in his mouth and he may want another shot at competing for the championship.There is still a lot of time left for him to contemplate what he can do with a few million dollars, but just wanted to let everyone know this is what he is currently saying. This was reported locally (Roanke Times) yesterday and I don't have a web link.

 

[rabidfireweasel]

I think Benson will be picked early if he declares. In his freshman year he looked like a god, and all the hype that followed him out of high school where he was a 4X time Texas player of the year seemed on the money. His sophmore year he slipped a bit, although much of it simply may have been unreasonable expectations. Since the loss to OK (it seems like people always say this when talking about Texas) Benson has simply been dominant. He does fall forward and has good size.

 

[malice]

I'm guessing the Lions either take Perry in the draft (to keep the hometown fan base happy) or actively pursue Barlow. Mooch knows what Barlow can do and he could still use either Morris/Stewart/Gary as the "Hearst" man while Barlow gets up to speed.I'd also be surprised if someone doesn't make a favorable offer for Travis Henry. He's shown how valuable he can be to an offense and that he's willing to play through pain. I could see him going to the Jets or some other division rival so he can show the Bills how he really felt about them drafting McGahee.

 

[downtowndragons]

I don't see Pittsburgh taking a QB or RB in the first round. O-Line O-Line O-Line!Then some secondary improvements. After that, developmental QB, about the fourth round.RB? I wouldn't be surprised to see Dillon or Barlow in a black & gold uniform. But I would bet that Haynes or Brown will be starting for the Steelers next year. Probably Haynes.If Tommy Gun is thru, I'd look for a vet to come in and start.

 

[Gator Shawn]

i'm surprised "your boy" hasn't informed you that he is a senior.

Quality Humor....

 

[guderian]

Do NFL prospects ever come out and say they are leaving for the pros? Locally there are a lot of homers that say Nick Saban has said he loves Baton Rouge and has no intention of leaving, but if he gets the right NFL offer he's a goner. The same goes for any NFL prospect "I love it here, I want to compete for a national championship, I told my grandmother I was going to finish college...a $10 million signing bonus did you say? Sorry gramma...". They all saw what happened to Magahee and Roy Williams ended up being the only major first round offensive prospect that I recall actually staying in college. Maybe one or two first round prospects will stay, but the vast majority of these guys are going pro.

 

[heyshady]

Chris Perry looked like an NFL player against a very good Ohio State D. His stock may be rising as well.

Don't get me wrong, Perry did look good in that game. But at a minimum, the Michigan O-line was responsible for at least half his production. They simply blew the DL and LBs out of every play. He was 10 yards down field before he came across an OSU defensive player that wasn't lying on their back, and more than likely that player was either a freshman or soph as 4 out of 5 safeties/nickel backs were 1st or 2nd year players. You must've noticed them all bouncing off his thighs and whiffing on tackles? Chris Perry at full speed in the open field against 2 or 3 first and second year safeties is not a fair fight and is not a true indicator of how well he will do in the NFL.

 

[JohnnyU]

I think Benson will be picked early if he declares. In his freshman year he looked like a god, and all the hype that followed him out of high school where he was a 4X time Texas player of the year seemed on the money. His sophmore year he slipped a bit, although much of it simply may have been unreasonable expectations. Since the loss to OK (it seems like people always say this when talking about Texas) Benson has simply been dominant. He does fall forward and has good size.

The other Cedric is better. Houston that is.

 

[Newman]

Kevin Jones will be the first back taken.After that, even though I've been pimping Jackson all fall, its a toss-up between he and Cedric Benson. If you thought Perry looked good againt OhioState (he did), then you should have seen Benson plow through A & M for 280 and 4 scores at one of the most hostile environments in college football.HERD

You can in no way compare what Perry did against OSU to what Benson did against A&M. A&M has one of the worst rush defenses in the country. Their overall defense is brutal. Putting up numbers against them is nothing special. In fact, Benson has put up good numbers in the back half of the season on some very suspect run defenses. I've honestly never thought that highly of him. As another poster suggested, he doesn't seem to possess a lot of moves. I personally have been more impressed with Jones, Jackson, and Perry, but what do I know. Haven't seen any '04 mock drafts, so you may very well be right about where he projects (assuming he declares) according to the scouting services.

 

[Goat Herders]

Just try and remember that there was shock at the RB position in the draft recently when (1) Jamal Lewis went ahead of Thomas Jones and (2) Edgerrin James went ahead of Ricky Williams. I'm simply stating that we shouldn't be surpirsed when a guy like Benson goes A LOT higher then you might think. A & M aside, keep in mind that oftentimes, defenses have poor stats because people perform well against them. Last I checked, the "Blackshirts" were back too, and then Texas went and beat the crap out of them and now the Huskers are looking for a new coach. HERD

 

[beto]

Don't get me wrong, Perry did look good in that game. But at a minimum, the Michigan O-line was responsible for at least half his production. They simply blew the DL and LBs out of every play. He was 10 yards down field before he came across an OSU defensive player that wasn't lying on their back, and more than likely that player was either a freshman or soph as 4 out of 5 safeties/nickel backs were 1st or 2nd year players. You must've noticed them all bouncing off his thighs and whiffing on tackles? Chris Perry at full speed in the open field against 2 or 3 first and second year safeties is not a fair fight and is not a true indicator of how well he will do in the NFL.

Now I have heard everything. The safeties on one of the best Ds in college football were responsible for Perry's performance?I'm a Michigan homer but this is one of the weaker excuses I've seen for why Chris Perry isn't as good as he looks.

 

[Jason Wood]

It's nothing better than conjecture on all our parts right now to propose which RBs are going to be ahead of the pack. Certainly Steven Jackson will carry the highest grade into the combine, but any of these guys can pull into the top 10 (or fall a round or two) depending on what they do in the All Star games, combine, and private workouts.Cheers

 

[downtowndragons]

Off the cuff predictionsBarlow takes the Mooch train to Detroit;Henry is scarfed up by New England;CuMar is traded to Dallas;Dillon ends up in TB;Stillers hold with Haynes starting and Amos/Brown for change up.

 

[tommyboy]

Kevin Jones will be the first back taken.After that, even though I've been pimping Jackson all fall, its a toss-up between he and Cedric Benson. If you thought Perry looked good againt OhioState (he did), then you should have seen Benson plow through A & M for 280 and 4 scores at one of the most hostile environments in college football.HERD

Stephen Jackson will be the #1 RB drafted, go bet on it.

 

[tommyboy]

http://www.nfldraftblitz.com/mockdraft.htm

 

[TLEF316]

that mock is bogus. andrew walter in the first round? and at #11? no way. the cardinals wouldnt even take Suggs last year from ASU, so dont there is no reason to take walter that high

 

[TheLaw]

Pittsburgh is in good position to land Manning or Roesthlisberger at QB in round 1 unless both Oakland and Arizona pick ahead of them and take these guys. If the QBs are gone, the Steelers may go RB in round one as well and end up with SJackson or KJones. They have some other needs though, and they may look at round 2 for a RB and get one of the other RBs mentioned above or another from a rather deep group (MMoore/CBenson/etc., depending on preference and who declares for the draft).

I think the Steelers absolutely MUST draft a CB in round 1. If I ran the team, I would figure a way to get rid of Dwayne Washington (cut him if cap allows it). Then I move Chad Scott to safety - draft a CB (Gamble from OSU?) and sign a vet for the other CB. As has happened often in recent history, the Steelers can find a solid RB later in the draft IMO - CB and o-lin depth are a higher priority though I would think - although I wouldn't mind one of those second round RBs either.i dunno - we suck.

 

[RKade]

Off the cuff predictionsBarlow takes the Mooch train to Detroit;Henry is scarfed up by New England;CuMar is traded to Dallas;Dillon ends up in TB;Stillers hold with Haynes starting and Amos/Brown for change up.

CuMar is about overDillon is GOING NOWHERE!!!!Haynes? You've got to be kidding. Get ready for another disapointing year for the Steelers then.

 

[Capella]

I could see Dillon to the Bucs, if the salaries work. Personally, I don't care who they get, but the Bucs need some young talent and speed at the offensive skill positions.I can't believe week 13 has ended and I'm thinking about the draft.5-7 sucks.

 

[8623]

I could see Dillon to the Bucs, if the salaries work. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Bucs end up with Charlie Garner.

Cowboys are more likely IMO.

 

[XNOUGHT]

I could see Dillon to the Bucs, if the salaries work. Personally, I don't care who they get, but the Bucs need some young talent and speed at the offensive skill positions.I can't believe week 13 has ended and I'm thinking about the draft.5-7 sucks.

:rotflmao:

 

[Jason Wood]

I could see Dillon to the Bucs, if the salaries work. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Bucs end up with Charlie Garner.

Cowboys are more likely IMO.

I don't agree, I think Parcells would rather draft a young stud (a la Curtis Martin in NE) than take on a back with Dillon's considerable workload and prima donna attitude. I'd frankly be surprised if he and Jerry Jones green lit that deal.Cheers

 

[Capella]

I could see Dillon to the Bucs, if the salaries work. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Bucs end up with Charlie Garner.

Cowboys are more likely IMO.

I don't agree, I think Parcells would rather draft a young stud (a la Curtis Martin in NE) than take on a back with Dillon's considerable workload and prima donna attitude. I'd frankly be surprised if he and Jerry Jones green lit that deal.Cheers

Dillon would fit in here...no way Gruden wants to play a young RB on a team which will have one more chance...Dillon could probably be had rather cheap and he's the between the tackles runner Chucky wants.He may go to Dallas, I'm just saying that seeing him at RayJay next year won't shock me.

 

[Marvelous]

Off the cuff predictionsBarlow takes the Mooch train to Detroit;Henry is scarfed up by New England;CuMar is traded to Dallas;Dillon ends up in TB;Stillers hold with Haynes starting and Amos/Brown for change up.

My predictionsillon goes nowhere unless Cincy want to dump him (cut or traded for low draft pick like a 4th rounder). No team is going to give a lot up for a 28 year old rb with a known attitude.Barlow stays in SF. Barlow is a restricted free agent. SF makes a tender at 3rd round or 1st round $, and no one wants him for that amount.Henry stays in Buffalo. Why trade him when Magahee is totally unproven and coming off a major injury? Has he already shown enough in practice that they know he has the same talent and had durability? That is impossible. By the way, Henry has a cap friendly contract, which makes trading more desirable, but also keeping him more desirable.Sorry, I just don't see many rbs switching teams.