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Teams that took a step foward in 06, (1 Viewer)

comfortably numb

Footballguy
Lets look at some poor teams from 05 that took a step foward in 06 into the playoffs, or into playoff contention, and see if you think some of these teams will take a step back in 07.

JETS

TEN

PHI

GB

NO

STL

SF

These teams improved from 2005, do you think any of these teams will decline in 08?

If so how much of a decline?

GB will have the #1 pick in the 08 Draft?

PHI wins 4 games?

NO wins 9 games but still makes the playoffs?

 
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SF fan here:

Based on the schedule for teams in the NFC Werst, I could easily see all four teams in the 6-10 to 10-6 range. In fact I could see them all between 7 and 9 wins, with the Division Champ coming down to tie-breakers. I'll say 49ers continue to improve, finish 9-7, and are on the bubble for the playoffs.

 
49ers have no shot, matchups with the AFC North and NFC South won't be easy... look for seattle to rebound and take the division as usually. Everyone picks trendy every off season by going with the cardinals etc, isnt going to happen again.

 
49ers have no shot, matchups with the AFC North and NFC South won't be easy... look for seattle to rebound and take the division as usually. Everyone picks trendy every off season by going with the cardinals etc, isnt going to happen again.

 
comfortably numb said:
JETSTENPHIGBNOSTLSF
Of that group the team most likely to go backwards imo is GB because of the uncertainty with Favre and the RB situation. The current core isn't good enough to make them a title contender and will not be with the team when they are a contender so at some point they are going to have to rebuild. They finished strong to go to 8-8 in the worst division in football(half their wins came against DET/MIN and another cheap win against a CHI team that didn't seem to care). I don't think the future in GB is all that bright.Outside of that group it wouldn't surprise me if the Chargers came back to earth with five less wins next season. They were 14-2 with arguably the most talented roster in the NFL last year but what are the odds Tomlison scores over 30 TD's again? Would it really surprise anyone if "slumped" all the way down to 20 TD's next season? That would cost a couple of games imo. They have already lost the OC that orchestrated that offense and who knows who'll be making the playcalling next year? Cameron was the the most important piece of the puzzle for them to keep. That may cost them a couple of games. Rumors are circulating that their DC is likely the next to go. It's looking more and more like they'll be losing one their best OLman from '06 to FA. Sure he's a gaurd and can be replaced but continuity in the OL is often overlooked. Plenty of people talk about Merriman/Castillo/McCree/Jammer when talking about the Chargers but Donnie Edwards has always been one of the key pieces of that defense and perhaps just as importantly the last time he missed a game was in '98 when that slacker only played in 15 games for the Chiefs instead of 16. For that matter he's only missed two games his entire career. He's a rock on that defense and people don't realize how much he did for the defense until after he's gone. One of the better coverage LB's in the game and I don't see anyone else on the current roster ready to take over in that capacity.I'm not all sour grapes with the Chargers but there are real causes for concern. They have a young nucleus tied up to contracts for the next several years and AJ Smith has been a witch at bringing in talent so we'll see how he does replacing Edwards/Dielman. It's hard to guess how the SD offense will react to the loss of Cameron but I'm a big fan of "if it ain't broke...." and it's difficult to imagine anyone else stepping in and making that offense as efficient as it was in '06. I'd peg 10-6 as the probable record for next year but 9-7 is also pretty likely. That's a swing of five games.... which may be the most in the NFL next year.
 
Well the team I see least likely to regress is Philly. This "step up" year is really a step up from a trainwreck year, which was horribly worse than the other years they had. Additionally, they still had some key injuries, so they may end up healthier next year, and the 2 big division rivals have question marks:

Giants - RB & coach/player relationship.

Cowboys - Coach? Owens in year 2 causing cancer?

I see NO & SD drifting backwards, mainly because of their extreme success this year. It's quite possible that SD has more playoff success next year, but 4 leas wins, which would be an overall imporvement, but still a regular season step back.

GB is highly Favre-dependent.

JETS & TEN look top be stable.

STL/SF will probably have one slide back, as AZ almost has to improve.

 
STL/SF will probably have one slide back, as AZ almost has to improve.
That's a good point about ARZ and they could effect either STL or SF.
I'll believe AZ will improve when I see it. I've thought, incorrectly, for the past few years that this has to be the year due to X, Y or Z and year after year they are picking top 10.
 
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The Buffalo Bills will be nowhere near 7-9.

They're going to lose both Nate Clements and London Fletcher. They could get rid of McGahee (that may actually help them I suppose, depending on the replacement) and their O-line is still not very good.

Kansas City is a disaster waiting to happen on the o-line. Their QB situation is a mess. Their interior D-line is bad as is their linebacker corps and their cornerbacks have Father Time breathing down their necks.

 
facook said:
SF fan here:Based on the schedule for teams in the NFC Werst, I could easily see all four teams in the 6-10 to 10-6 range. In fact I could see them all between 7 and 9 wins, with the Division Champ coming down to tie-breakers. I'll say 49ers continue to improve, finish 9-7, and are on the bubble for the playoffs.
I meant which team will decline, not continue to improve.
 
comfortably numb said:
JETSTENPHIGBNOSTLSF
Of that group the team most likely to go backwards imo is GB because of the uncertainty with Favre and the RB situation. The current core isn't good enough to make them a title contender and will not be with the team when they are a contender so at some point they are going to have to rebuild. They finished strong to go to 8-8 in the worst division in football(half their wins came against DET/MIN and another cheap win against a CHI team that didn't seem to care). I don't think the future in GB is all that bright.Outside of that group it wouldn't surprise me if the Chargers came back to earth with five less wins next season. They were 14-2 with arguably the most talented roster in the NFL last year but what are the odds Tomlison scores over 30 TD's again? Would it really surprise anyone if "slumped" all the way down to 20 TD's next season? That would cost a couple of games imo. They have already lost the OC that orchestrated that offense and who knows who'll be making the playcalling next year? Cameron was the the most important piece of the puzzle for them to keep. That may cost them a couple of games. Rumors are circulating that their DC is likely the next to go. It's looking more and more like they'll be losing one their best OLman from '06 to FA. Sure he's a gaurd and can be replaced but continuity in the OL is often overlooked. Plenty of people talk about Merriman/Castillo/McCree/Jammer when talking about the Chargers but Donnie Edwards has always been one of the key pieces of that defense and perhaps just as importantly the last time he missed a game was in '98 when that slacker only played in 15 games for the Chiefs instead of 16. For that matter he's only missed two games his entire career. He's a rock on that defense and people don't realize how much he did for the defense until after he's gone. One of the better coverage LB's in the game and I don't see anyone else on the current roster ready to take over in that capacity.I'm not all sour grapes with the Chargers but there are real causes for concern. They have a young nucleus tied up to contracts for the next several years and AJ Smith has been a witch at bringing in talent so we'll see how he does replacing Edwards/Dielman. It's hard to guess how the SD offense will react to the loss of Cameron but I'm a big fan of "if it ain't broke...." and it's difficult to imagine anyone else stepping in and making that offense as efficient as it was in '06. I'd peg 10-6 as the probable record for next year but 9-7 is also pretty likely. That's a swing of five games.... which may be the most in the NFL next year.
Good points with GBI agree, they're are alot of ?? in the offense.On the SD comments, do you think the probabilty of them missing the playoffs is Good?
 
Baltimore Ravens.

McNair did not play all that well as the season wore on and will be another year older. Ray Lewis will also be a year older and if they lose Adalius Thomas to free agency that would be a huge hit.

They'll also be playing a first place schedule next season so I think it will be tough for them to go 13-3 again.

oops, I may have read this wrong. I thought you meant teams that took a step forward in 2006 that might take a step back in 2007. I am not sure what to expect for 2008.

 
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They're not on your list, but I believe the Ravens had the biggest increase of wins over last year of any team in the league, going from 6 wins to 13. Considering you've got other 6 win teams from 05 (e.g., PHI, STL) I don't see why they are not on your list as well.

The Ravens could have a very good year in 07 and would be unlikekly to match this year's success, and a "less-than-very-good" year is a very distinct possibility.

 
Baltimore Ravens.

McNair did not play all that well as the season wore on and will be another year older. Ray Lewis will also be a year older and if they lose Adalius Thomas to free agency that would be a huge hit.

They'll also be playing a first place schedule next season so I think it will be tough for them to go 13-3 again.

oops, I may have read this wrong. I thought you meant teams that took a step forward in 2006 that might take a step back in 2007. I am not sure what to expect for 2008.
Crap, your right, sorry, corrections have been made.
 
They're not on your list, but I believe the Ravens had the biggest increase of wins over last year of any team in the league, going from 6 wins to 13. Considering you've got other 6 win teams from 05 (e.g., PHI, STL) I don't see why they are not on your list as well.The Ravens could have a very good year in 07 and would be unlikekly to match this year's success, and a "less-than-very-good" year is a very distinct possibility.
Your right, They should be on the list, I must have forgot them.I don't think 13 wins are gonna happen for them, but I expect 10 or 11I think they finally have a viable WR in Clayton to complement Mason, Heap is also a great target.They will continue to find a way to run the ball, the Oline is still solid.The D just always seems to be tough, not to mention 2 wins against CLE :goodposting:
 
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comfortably numb said:
Lets look at some poor teams from 05 that took a step foward in 06 into the playoffs, or into playoff contention, and see if you think some of these teams will take a step back in 07.JETSTENPHIGBNOSTLSFBALThese teams improved from 2005, do you think any of these teams will decline in 08?If so how much of a decline?GB will have the #1 pick in the 08 Draft?PHI wins 4 games?NO wins 9 games but still makes the playoffs?
 
They're not on your list, but I believe the Ravens had the biggest increase of wins over last year of any team in the league, going from 6 wins to 13. Considering you've got other 6 win teams from 05 (e.g., PHI, STL) I don't see why they are not on your list as well.

The Ravens could have a very good year in 07 and would be unlikekly to match this year's success, and a "less-than-very-good" year is a very distinct possibility.
Your right, They should be on the list, I must have forgot them.

I don't think 13 wins are gonna happen for them, but I expect 10 or 11

I think they finally have a viable WR in Clayton since Mason left, Heap is a great target.

They will continue to find a way to run the ball, the Oline is still solid.

The D just always seems to be tough, not to mention 2 wins against CLE :banned:
:goodposting: Mason left? Did I miss something? :loco:
 
They're not on your list, but I believe the Ravens had the biggest increase of wins over last year of any team in the league, going from 6 wins to 13. Considering you've got other 6 win teams from 05 (e.g., PHI, STL) I don't see why they are not on your list as well.

The Ravens could have a very good year in 07 and would be unlikekly to match this year's success, and a "less-than-very-good" year is a very distinct possibility.
Your right, They should be on the list, I must have forgot them.

I don't think 13 wins are gonna happen for them, but I expect 10 or 11

I think they finally have a viable WR in Clayton since Mason left, Heap is a great target.

They will continue to find a way to run the ball, the Oline is still solid.

The D just always seems to be tough, not to mention 2 wins against CLE :thumbup:
:D Mason left? Did I miss something? :thumbup:
DOHI changed it to refelect what my brain was thinking :X

 
They're not on your list, but I believe the Ravens had the biggest increase of wins over last year of any team in the league, going from 6 wins to 13. Considering you've got other 6 win teams from 05 (e.g., PHI, STL) I don't see why they are not on your list as well.

The Ravens could have a very good year in 07 and would be unlikekly to match this year's success, and a "less-than-very-good" year is a very distinct possibility.
Your right, They should be on the list, I must have forgot them.

I don't think 13 wins are gonna happen for them, but I expect 10 or 11

I think they finally have a viable WR in Clayton since Mason left, Heap is a great target.

They will continue to find a way to run the ball, the Oline is still solid.

The D just always seems to be tough, not to mention 2 wins against CLE :bag:
Mason left?According to nflpa.orgis under contract through 2009

 
On the SD comments, do you think the probabilty of them missing the playoffs is Good?
I'd say they have a better than 50% chance to make the playoffs but it's lower than most currently think. I don't think they are as much a lock to make the playoffs next year as CAR was this year for instance. People don't realize how rare it is for an entire offensive unit to be as healthy as the Charger offese was this year. Between Cameron leaving and expecting an average injury year for the offense I expect that group to come back to the pack. The defense could actually be better if Wade Philips stays and they can get an entire season out of Merriman/Castillo/Phillips w/ Cromartie playing more but as I mentioned earlier people underestimate the loss of Edwards and his 16 games every single season. The defense might be slightly better(big if since the DC is one of the top cantidates in DAL) but it won't offset the offense coming back to the pack imo. I expect DEN/SD to be in a dog-fight for the division title for the next few years based on both Rivers and Cutler being better than I expected. Herm Edwards is a good HC but does KC realize they need to turn the page with that franchise or are they just goint to try and make one last run with same core of players? If so that's a mistake. It just seems to me oak has no direction whatsoever and it's a better than 50% chance we'll see another HC/QB next year.
 
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Dallas should be on the list just because they are getting a new coach.

I'd also nominate the Ravens.

 
comfortably numb said:
JETSTENPHIGBNOSTLSF
Of that group the team most likely to go backwards imo is GB because of the uncertainty with Favre and the RB situation. The current core isn't good enough to make them a title contender and will not be with the team when they are a contender so at some point they are going to have to rebuild. They finished strong to go to 8-8 in the worst division in football(half their wins came against DET/MIN and another cheap win against a CHI team that didn't seem to care). I don't think the future in GB is all that bright.Outside of that group it wouldn't surprise me if the Chargers came back to earth with five less wins next season. They were 14-2 with arguably the most talented roster in the NFL last year but what are the odds Tomlison scores over 30 TD's again? Would it really surprise anyone if "slumped" all the way down to 20 TD's next season? That would cost a couple of games imo. They have already lost the OC that orchestrated that offense and who knows who'll be making the playcalling next year? Cameron was the the most important piece of the puzzle for them to keep. That may cost them a couple of games. Rumors are circulating that their DC is likely the next to go. It's looking more and more like they'll be losing one their best OLman from '06 to FA. Sure he's a gaurd and can be replaced but continuity in the OL is often overlooked. Plenty of people talk about Merriman/Castillo/McCree/Jammer when talking about the Chargers but Donnie Edwards has always been one of the key pieces of that defense and perhaps just as importantly the last time he missed a game was in '98 when that slacker only played in 15 games for the Chiefs instead of 16. For that matter he's only missed two games his entire career. He's a rock on that defense and people don't realize how much he did for the defense until after he's gone. One of the better coverage LB's in the game and I don't see anyone else on the current roster ready to take over in that capacity.I'm not all sour grapes with the Chargers but there are real causes for concern. They have a young nucleus tied up to contracts for the next several years and AJ Smith has been a witch at bringing in talent so we'll see how he does replacing Edwards/Dielman. It's hard to guess how the SD offense will react to the loss of Cameron but I'm a big fan of "if it ain't broke...." and it's difficult to imagine anyone else stepping in and making that offense as efficient as it was in '06. I'd peg 10-6 as the probable record for next year but 9-7 is also pretty likely. That's a swing of five games.... which may be the most in the NFL next year.
:yes: In a replay of 2005 the Chargers go 9-7 and are out of playoffs in 2007.
 
Mungo and godsbrother are right -- it'll be the Ravens for the variety of reasons already mentioned. That was why the playoff loss was so particularly disappointing, not because of the ancient history with the Colts, but because most of us around here saw the window of opportunity being very very narrow. They'll be hard pressed to get back into the playoffs in the tough AFC.

 
JETSTENPHIGBNOSTLSF
Of that group the team most likely to go backwards imo is GB because of the uncertainty with Favre and the RB situation. The current core isn't good enough to make them a title contender and will not be with the team when they are a contender so at some point they are going to have to rebuild. They finished strong to go to 8-8 in the worst division in football(half their wins came against DET/MIN and another cheap win against a CHI team that didn't seem to care). I don't think the future in GB is all that bright.
Not sure I really agree with this. From what I understand, the Packers are actually the youngest team in the league right now. No one knows what Favre will do, though early indications are that he will come back. And it also sounds like Green wants to re-sign with the team. Three rookies this year made the All-Rookie team, and Woodson and Pickett were great additions to go along with Kampman's continued growth. IMO the Packers need a third WR to go along with Driver and Jennings, improvement at TE, safety help, and a third corner. That's not half bad. They obviously need help, but it's far from what the above poster suggests.
 
JETSTENPHIGBNOSTLSF
Of that group the team most likely to go backwards imo is GB because of the uncertainty with Favre and the RB situation. The current core isn't good enough to make them a title contender and will not be with the team when they are a contender so at some point they are going to have to rebuild. They finished strong to go to 8-8 in the worst division in football(half their wins came against DET/MIN and another cheap win against a CHI team that didn't seem to care). I don't think the future in GB is all that bright.
Not sure I really agree with this. From what I understand, the Packers are actually the youngest team in the league right now. No one knows what Favre will do, though early indications are that he will come back. And it also sounds like Green wants to re-sign with the team. Three rookies this year made the All-Rookie team, and Woodson and Pickett were great additions to go along with Kampman's continued growth. IMO the Packers need a third WR to go along with Driver and Jennings, improvement at TE, safety help, and a third corner. That's not half bad. They obviously need help, but it's far from what the above poster suggests.
I think it really depends on what positions you're talking about. They may be one of the youngest teams in the league but all their best "talent position" players are old. Favre/Green/Driver are 38/30/32 and they accounted for the vast majority of GB's offensive production last season. Even though all three had very good years the team still had two wins against DET, two wins against MIN and a win against an apathetic CHI team that would have killed them if the game had been played earlier in the year and it would have meant something in the standings to CHI. That's three wins against everyone else(even one of those came against ARZ). Those are six of the softest wins you'll ever see. I like the youth and direction of their defense though they really are going to need to replace both starting CB's very soon. But on offense I don't see much help waiting in the wings. I like both Jennings/Morency but they combined for about 1200 yards last season and I'm not convinced either is ready to step up to be a #1 for a full season.
 
I remember reading in Pro Football Prospectus a couple of seasons ago, that teams who make a big jump from one season to the nest (4+ wins improvement), often fall back the next year.

Probably look at NO, Jets. Just find the teams with the easy schedules this year, and stayed injury-free. Law of averages comes into play.

 
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If the Saints add a starting quality MLB or OLB and a starting CB, please tell me how they take a step back? Their only FA on offense is RT Jon Stinchcomb. Colston, Bush, Evans, Harper, and Strief all got starting experience and some of them even got playoff experience as a rookie. I could understand a drop off from #1 offense to maybe top 5 offense, but with a better defense, how can they do worse than 10-6?

 
If the Saints add a starting quality MLB or OLB and a starting CB, please tell me how they take a step back? Their only FA on offense is RT Jon Stinchcomb. Colston, Bush, Evans, Harper, and Strief all got starting experience and some of them even got playoff experience as a rookie. I could understand a drop off from #1 offense to maybe top 5 offense, but with a better defense, how can they do worse than 10-6?
First place schedule instead of last place schedule.
 
The Buffalo Bills will be nowhere near 7-9.They're going to lose both Nate Clements and London Fletcher. They could get rid of McGahee (that may actually help them I suppose, depending on the replacement) and their O-line is still not very good.Kansas City is a disaster waiting to happen on the o-line. Their QB situation is a mess. Their interior D-line is bad as is their linebacker corps and their cornerbacks have Father Time breathing down their necks.
you are right- they may add 2-3 wins.The OL performance at end of the year was light years ahead of where they started. They will add a OG and improve just with continuity.
 
The Buffalo Bills will be nowhere near 7-9.They're going to lose both Nate Clements and London Fletcher. They could get rid of McGahee (that may actually help them I suppose, depending on the replacement) and their O-line is still not very good.Kansas City is a disaster waiting to happen on the o-line. Their QB situation is a mess. Their interior D-line is bad as is their linebacker corps and their cornerbacks have Father Time breathing down their necks.
you are right- they may add 2-3 wins.The OL performance at end of the year was light years ahead of where they started. They will add a OG and improve just with continuity.
Their offense may be better, but their defense will be worse.
 
The Buffalo Bills will be nowhere near 7-9.They're going to lose both Nate Clements and London Fletcher. They could get rid of McGahee (that may actually help them I suppose, depending on the replacement) and their O-line is still not very good.
Funny, I was thinking just the opposite. The Bills seem to finally be putting it all together. They will break .500 next year for sure.
 
The Buffalo Bills will be nowhere near 7-9.They're going to lose both Nate Clements and London Fletcher. They could get rid of McGahee (that may actually help them I suppose, depending on the replacement) and their O-line is still not very good.
Funny, I was thinking just the opposite. The Bills seem to finally be putting it all together. They will break .500 next year for sure.
Wilson is cheap and they'll end up losing too many of their defensive starters to free agency.
 
The Buffalo Bills will be nowhere near 7-9.

They're going to lose both Nate Clements and London Fletcher. They could get rid of McGahee (that may actually help them I suppose, depending on the replacement) and their O-line is still not very good.
Funny, I was thinking just the opposite. The Bills seem to finally be putting it all together. They will break .500 next year for sure.
Wilson is cheap and they'll end up losing too many of their defensive starters to free agency.
How many is too many? Seriously.I doubt they lose Fletcher. But I'm 99% positive they lose Clements. But I'm not too worried about that loss.

There are still some young D players growing, on the cusp of special even, which will be an improvement in some areas. And the Bills have a shot at some solid D help in the draft.

I'm just not sure there's any real reason to think they will digress in '07. Unless you're a Phins fan :wub:

 
First place schedule instead of last place schedule.
Not nearly as much of a factor as it used to be, considering there are only 2 opponents determined by the prior year finish now, as opposed to six (IIRC?) in the past.
NO gets:Home: Zona, STL, JAC, TEN, PHI + divisionAway: S.F., Seattle, Houston, Indy, Bears + divisionCompared to this year:Home: PHI, WASH, BALT, CIN, 4th place NFC west teamAway: DAL, NYGIANTS, CLE, PITT, 4th place NFC northThey played the NFC East and AFC North this year which is probably more difficult then their draw next year of AFC South and NFC West. They most likely won't decline due to a weak NFC West and getting their hardest games on the road meaning they should be able to get 6 or 7 wins out of the divisional games. Then some easy games against the Falcons and Bucs they are the favorite to win the division.
 
If the Saints add a starting quality MLB or OLB and a starting CB, please tell me how they take a step back? Their only FA on offense is RT Jon Stinchcomb. Colston, Bush, Evans, Harper, and Strief all got starting experience and some of them even got playoff experience as a rookie. I could understand a drop off from #1 offense to maybe top 5 offense, but with a better defense, how can they do worse than 10-6?
That's a lot of ifs huh? I don't think they'll necessarily improve. The corner position is a problem and isn't one of the d linemen taking off? I'm not saying they'll be 3-13, but I don't think they'll be in the NFC title game again either.
 
Since the Jets drafting a RB and rolling with Clemons isn't such a crazy idea, they could. It's probably ideal to go with Clemons in 08 but they sure liked him last summer and everyone expected him to see some time in 06.

 
If the Saints add a starting quality MLB or OLB and a starting CB, please tell me how they take a step back? Their only FA on offense is RT Jon Stinchcomb. Colston, Bush, Evans, Harper, and Strief all got starting experience and some of them even got playoff experience as a rookie. I could understand a drop off from #1 offense to maybe top 5 offense, but with a better defense, how can they do worse than 10-6?
That's a lot of ifs huh? I don't think they'll necessarily improve. The corner position is a problem and isn't one of the d linemen taking off? I'm not saying they'll be 3-13, but I don't think they'll be in the NFC title game again either.
A lot of ifs? How is gaining 2 starting positions big "ifs?" New Orleans is 28 mil under the cap and have a full draft. You're saying that it's not possible to find 2 starters given that scenario? Charles Grant wants to test the FA waters but he will be 29 at kickoff time and has maybe 3 years left of high-end production. His production has decreased the last couple of years(10 sacks to 4) and Will Smith is the star of the line. I say offer him fair value but don't overpay. He is replaceable.
 
I see the Jets going backwards a bit, at least as far as the W-L totals go. They may actually be a better team, but almost no injuries and a cake schedule isn't on the horizon for 2007. Much tougher schedule and still too many more holes to fill. 8-8 seems a reasonable expectation.

I think SF continues to improve as will Tenn.

 
Not a team that improved in 2007 but the Giants...

No RB

1 WR

Defensive backfield is deplorable

LBs are weak

QB is still learning.

Big slide, and IMHO the G-men are entering a long dark period of football.

 
No mention of Indy?

Being in the Super Bowl kinda leaves them little room to prevent taking a step back. The $7 million they'll be showing over the salary cap going into next season won't help either. They are a team primed to be blown up in the next couple of seasons.

 
Put me down for NO.

They played over their heads all year.

With a tougher schedule coming they will be more close to .500.

8-8, 9-7 type of team.

 

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