'Synesthesia said:
'moleculo said:
just so we are clear - what are you trying to argue here? Are you trying to claim that yards are more important than points, or that the 2008 Broncos had a top 5 offense? I'm cool with deconstructing each one, but neither is really germane to the whole cutler v. Tebow debate. The former might be worth another thread, the latter is pretty ridiculous to continue.
Disagreeing with someone who says yards are unimportant is not the same as saying yards are more important than points. Both yards and points are important in terms of measuring a unit's effectiveness.
In a short run, points are kind of a random event. They come on groups of 7, which is rather dis-continuous; and they are impacted by lots of variables. Especially in the FF world - Jerome Bettis used to have stat lines with 5 yards rushing and 3 TD's; he was the goal line back, where Fast Willie Parker did most of the heavy lifting between the 20's. Here, FWP was more valuable because yards were more consistent than points, Bettis was just as likely to not get the TD, whereas FWP would always get yards. Point I'm trying to make here is that in the FF world, we over-emphasize yards because we are used to comparing small samples - a single players game or season. However, in a long run and dealing with macro levels (i.e. a whole team), yardage is simply an unnecessary surrogate for points. Over a span of 16 games, and considering the impact of all players on a team, why not look at points directly?
The only reason yards are meaningful in the first place is that the more yards you have, the higher probability that you will score points. Again, over the course of a whole season, points are the much more important statistic.
No one ever won a game because they out gained their opponent, whereas every single game in the history of the NFL was decided by who scored the most points. Nothing else matters in the NFL outside of scoring points. Frankly, I'm shocked this is even questioned; it should be self-evident.
'Synesthesia said:
I'm arguing that Denver had a top 5 offense in 2008. I'm making this argument in response to your (ludicrous) claim that Cutler helmed the
16th best offense in 2008. I feel this is germane to the Cutler vs. Tebow debate because it seems that a major reason you're selecting Tebow over Cutler is because Cutler has never QB'd an elite offense. I find that reason to be demonstrably false, and have been in the process of doing just that- demonstrating it to be false.
2008 Denver Broncos- 32nd in starting field position, 32nd in takeaways, decimated by injury, and yet still 1st in yards per drive, 9th in points per drive. Elite offense, almost entirely on the strength of Cutler's arm. Period.
Well then, I don't know what to tell you. I was a cutler fan back before he pouted his way out of town. I watched every snap of that 2008 season, and I can tell you that the 2008 Broncos was not a dominant offense. My eyeballs said so, and the meaningful stats say so. They consistently fell flat on their faces time and time again, including a 3 game flop to end the season.If you want to say that they were ineffective in converting yards to stats because of the running game, or because the D was so terrible or because special teams sucked, I won't argue, but those have no bearing on the fact that the Denver O was mediocre at best.
If you want to separate things further and say that the Bronco passing O was top 5, I'll give you that. but you can't look at how bad the running game was* and tell me that this unbalanced offense was significantly better than average. In fact, it astounds me when you tell me how bad the running game was* (and make the excuse about injuries), but still consider this O to be dominant. It just doesn't make sense. Great passing game and terrible running game average out to mediocre offense**. That's what a close inspection of data suggests should happen, that's what purely subjective observations says happened, and that's what the points ranking says happened.
If you want to give cutler a pass for all of the RB injuries, that's your prerogative. The facts remain though that this team was woefully inadequate in terms of punching it in and lighting the scoreboard.
Let me ask you this - why was a team that led the league in yards per drive only 16th in scoring? How do you rationalize that?
eta:
* running game wasn't bad. Very good ypa, very low attempts was a result of cycling through backs through games. cutler was in the unenvious position of trying to do it all w/ no rushing support at all for several games, and that really skewed the numbers.
** except for Arizona - top passing O, terrible rushing O, but scored TD's and was a top offense despite horrible balance.