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This depends highly on the league and your roster needs. I would generally favor your argument in a shallow league, but in a deep league I often prefer the opposite. Of course, you can't paint the picture black or white because each scenario differs.
I'm not too good myself, so don't listen to me. I'll provide some very unhelpful advice anyway.
Actually, I would probably take that without thinking too much. I think it's more likely that Green continues to be a perennial #1 than that either of those guys ever has another top 10 season. Garcon had a billion targets last season, but that should change with DeSean/Roberts/Reed all around. I don't think he's anywhere near as good as his FF numbers from last year would suggest. Just the right guy in the right place for a season. Brown is a nice player, but more of a FF WR2 in the long term if I had to guess. He probably just had his career year, so it's not a good time to buy him.
The AC forum also can be of some help - but that needs to be taken with the same grain of salt in as the trade thread - which is to say you quite often have the same people offering their opinion in every single thread and no one is an expert on every trade for every player in every league context (although a few here feel otherwise).
In a dynasty league, I would take it in a heartbeat as well.EBF said:
So a WR1 has more value than 2 WR2s? I disagree.EBF said:
When it comes to dynasty roster building, absolutely. I think one of the biggest mistakes people make managing dynasty teams is thinking too much in terms of their immediate lineup. Let's say you're in a start 2 WR league and you have absolutely nothing but Demaryius Thomas. Your lineup looks like this:
Have you done the math? The difference between WR1 and WR13 is larger than the difference between WR13 and WR25.
Same here.cstu said:
This is a good and well articulated post. Really good job breaking this down. I will say that there's a couple caveats to this, though. First, there's the fact that a true stud is hard to define. Right now, people are paying ridiculous prices for sammy watkins. Is he a true stud or not? How can you tell without seeing how he plays with ej manuel. My fear is that manuel plays well enough to keep that job for ten years but not well enough to ever crack the top 5 or even 10 wrs. If that's the case, then not only is it a huge mistake to trade the sun and the moon for 1.1, but if you own 1.1, its a huge mistake not to trade it.
You will almost never get consensus, unless it is an incredibly lopsided trade. Take the criticism of others with a grain of salt; opinions of trades are based on a snapshot in time and situations are always changing. If you are making trades for "breakout" candidates or giving up 1 stud for 3 prospects, you will always have people telling you it was a bad move.
This is an EXCELLENT post. Well stated, EBF.
This is also a very good post.
I think guys like Brown and Garcon had fluke seasons last year. Garcon more so than Brown. Great players can have great seasons without any luck needed, but a merely good player needs the stars to align for that to happen. So even knowing that a good player can occasionally have a great year, I'd still readily package two good players for one great one. Now how do you decide who's great? That is not an easy question to answer, but often times you know it when you see it. Guys like Demaryius and VJax are on another planet in terms of physical talent compared with the likes of Garcon and Brown.bostonfred said:
I don't think there's ever a time where it makes a lot of sense to break your star player into a lot of smaller pieces. Like I said, it's easier to move from this team...
In this example, we have a short lineup (six starting players) and you have two studs. With such a short lineup, I feel like you're now in stud acquisition mode. If you had a deeper lineup - add a couple flex spots, maybe - I'd be in prospect acquisition mode (going after the guys you referred to as bin 3 guys - like many of the rookie receivers this year).
Here's the problem with the McCoy/Dez lineup. It's hard to have any kinds of prospects on your team and not have enough players to make that a fairly competitive team. With four players left to add, I don't want to be competitive this year. So here's my approach with that team. First, you have to trade McCoy for prospects. He's a 26 year old stud whose value will never be higher, and you're not going to be much more than a borderline contender with this team in 2014. The guys I'd be looking for? One good option is to go after running backs like Christine Michael and Carlos Hyde, who should be great later, but aren't now. If you're going to rebuild, you want to give yourself the best chance of getting the #1 pick next year. Another option is an elite WR prospect. In most formats, that's the right play. But with Dez on board, and only two starting WR spots, I think that's a mistake. It's a lot easier to find "OK" receivers than "OK" running backs. If things work out right next year, you want your lineup to look like this:
So now let's change your scenario by one stud, anchor player - call it Brees but any stud will do - and you're now too close to be rebuilding:bostonfred said:
I don't know if I have much more to add to the discussion, but that's EXACTLY the type of deal that I think is poison. If you need to fill out a lineup, you want to add players like Vereen and Roddy to Demaryius without giving up a mega star. That can be done either through waivers, by aiming lower, or by trading non-premium picks. Whatever it is, you shouldn't give up anything premium for complementary players because complementary players are common and relatively easy to find.
Without getting into it too much, for me it basically boils down to the idea that your ultimate goal is to assemble your dream team. The exact specifics of that team are going to vary a little bit depending on the year. If you could have your pick of the perfect dynasty roster right now, who would you choose? For me I'd probably say:
That is an interesting way of thinking about it, but if you can't come close to assembling the dream roster in the short-term - doesn't it make sense to build for the dream roster in the future. Specifically, your dream roster 2018 is going to look way different than the dream roster today. In fact, it might not have any of those same players on it.
Well, everyone has a price. To go back to my earlier post:
I think it almost never makes sense to move a bin 1 player for an assortment of bin 2 players.
Yea, I actually had that exact thing happen to me last year. Lost Martin/Julio/Crabtree/Blackmon from a team that had won the league a year prior. Started strong in that league, but faded into irrelevance as the injuries/suspensions mounted. I think it's always good to have depth and that you should probably operate under the assumption that you're going to lose 1-2 projected starters over the course of the season due to injuries, suspension, and underperformance.
No, the rest of my post doesn't deal with a different topic entirely. For the second time, you've responded to my post but skipped over the point of what I'm trying to say to return to the same point you make in every thread. I get it. You think stud talent is the most important thing. Everyone knows that you think that by now. Jonathan Stewart's mom called and said, EBF, man, let it go. We get it.
The point - the very specific and only point I was making, and only in response to you ignoring it the first time around - was that I disagree with you in two specific cases. When you're nowhere near close to fielding a lineup, you should be willing to trade a stud for prospects with stud potential, and preferably one that won't win now, because your goal is to field a lineup with multiple studs. And two, when you finally get that all stud lineup, and you have a short window, I'm willing to downgrade a stud to make sure I have depth. I know that you're not. I think that's a loser mentality. It sounds good in the short run, but when you're working on a window that's four years, max, with a guy like Manning, or a receiver who relies on him, you can't risk losing a whole year to some crappy injury. Having that all stud team is great, but even if you stay healthy the entire year, all it does is get you to the playoffs as a favorite. But if you don't have any depth behind those guys, one injury can knock you out of the playoffs, or out of that first round bye, and it's a lot more likely that that will happen than that the downgrade from Demaryius Thomas to a guy like Roddy who should be a very good receiver this year in his own right.
See, that's just really bad luck. But the good news is that you got a good draft pick out of it. And that's unusual for a team with an all stud lineup. Normally, an injury or two weakens you a little, but you limp to the playoffs and lose.But your case is a little different from the one I discussed earlier. All of your guys are young, and for the most part, none of them have an expiration date the way that Julius and Demaryius Thomas do. So your window is wide open. In your case, I'd never trade a stud to get pieces. In your extreme injury case, I'd actually be happy to get a good draft pick in case one of those studs turned into a pumpkin, ilke Blackmon did (and like Gronk or TRich might depending how this year goes).
I don't think D Thomas depends on Manning to the extent that you seem to believe, but that's a minor point here.
I think thomas is good enough to be good with osweiler. I just don't know if he's great enough to be great. I think larry fitzgerald is a better player than thomas, and we saw what happened when his qb retired. So I look at thomas as two players in one. He's the stud wr for the next couple years until manning retires, and he's the elite prospect who might or might not get good qb play starting the year after that. I like him, but I devalue him some because of it, and I definitely take it into consideration when looking at my upcoming window for my team.
I'm in this league with EBF and he had a bad luck year with injuries. However, he did exactly what he's telling people not to do. In August he traded his future 1st for Darren Sproles. Due to the bad luck, that pick turned out to be the 1.05(Carlos Hyde). In November, he traded away 1.11(Kelvin Benjamin) + his devy pick 1.5(Laquan Treadwell) + Gresham for Christine Michael. I know he LOVES Michael, but that would be an overpay I think now with names involved.
