The 1st overall pick (1 Viewer)

[Macdaddy_2004]

Pretty straight forward question.

Its either ADP or Chris Johnson. Who are you going with and why? It's a really tough decision. Johnson had an amazing season last year and even if everything goes right this year it will be hard to duplicate.

You can't deny ADP and his 18TD's either.

I can see one of these two putting up elite RB1 numbers this year - the question is who will it be and why.

Obviously ADP plays in an overall better offence but Johnson will always be involved in the game even if the Titans fall behind. This is a tough call.

 

[fridayfrenzy]

Go with the Average Draft Position

 

[Macdaddy_2004]

Seriously its a tough decision if you have the #1 pick this year.

 

[Mello]

Unless you have a crystal ball that works (in which case, go to Vegas) you might as well flip a coin. I'd probably lean toward CJ since he is the majority of the Titans offense where the Vikings have other options to go to. I don't think you can go wrong with either though.

 

[fridayfrenzy]

Seriously its a tough decision if you have the #1 pick this year.

Not really.Unless one of them gets injured, you'll get top 5 numbers out of both of them, so it's not that big of deal. You need to focus on the rest of your draft instead of focusing a bunch of time on who the #1 pick should be.You won't win or lose because of who your #1 pick was, you'll win or lose based on your later picks.

 

[Sabertooth]

It isn't a tough decision. Adrian Peterson is a great back who has produced through a bunch of different scenarios. He's had bad QBs, good QBs, split carries, had wideout help, no wideout help, he's produced while tight ends were producing and while they weren't.

Chris Johnson caught the perfect storm last season. To his credit he was money. But situations are volatile and we've only got one year of production to base our opinions on.

ADP is the choice. His is far more likely to finish in the top 3 or 4 and just as likely to finish #1. Same ceiling, higher floor. Also he has much better character than Chris Johnson. I could see Johnson pulling some tomfoolery if he don't get paid. Adrian is a pro's pro and he'll just work that much harder if he feels slighted.

Just my opinion of course. Adrian is the best running back of this generation. You are likely to regret passing on him.

 

[Instinctive]

I like AD.

If Favre comes back, he gets all the TDs again. If favre doesn't come back, he becomes a massive centerpiece, similar to CJ last year.

CJ will probably close on 2000 total this year though, which makes him tough to turn down. I think AD scores more TDs and my only redraft is TD-heavy, so that's who I'd take...MJD is a challenger for RB1 there also.

 

[Chargers86]

PPR go with CJ.

 

[One]

Adrian is the best running back of this generation. You are likely to regret passing on him.

I'm a huge fan of Peterson, but I'd like to know what you think he's done to be considered "the best running back of this generation."

 

[Cookiemonster]

Peterson, myself. Maybe a slightly smaller piece of a significantly bigger pie. Now no Chet to share with, caught a lot more balls last year, should catch more this year and will still get all or more carries... Of Taylor's 137 touches for 721 yards and two scores, Peterson will take up at least 10-20% of that and maybe as much as 1/2.

I think Johnson relies more on the pieces (namely VY) around him to keep the field open and would not produce as well in lean times like Peterson has already shown he can. That, and 20 pounds.

Those are a few reasons that I agree with Sabertooth's call on Peterson as a similar ceiling and higher floor and that's before you even mention the CJ grumblings about camp and contract. He'll probably still be starting week 1, but the chance of it going to week 3 and missing 1/8 of your fantasy season leaves me no decision to make.

 

[Cookiemonster]

Adrian is the best running back of this generation. You are likely to regret passing on him.

I'm a huge fan of Peterson, but I'd like to know what you think he's done to be considered "the best running back of this generation."

Just my opinion (and mine is no better than many on this board), Peterson is the best RB I have watched since Barry, Bo & Sweetness.

 

[Texasmouth]

Ray Rice?

ADP always scares me because I just feel like I am waiting on the guy to get hurt...

CJ- with all of this holdout BS and his big mouth, I could see him getting one of those lingering, annoying injuries like a hammy or turf toe.

Ray Rice is on a great team that is going to play smash mouth football. He also has Cam Cameron who made LT into the greatest fantasy RB since Marshall Faulk, who Cam Cameron had a part in as well. I could see Rice finishing the year as the best overall fantasy RB.

 

[Cookiemonster]

Ray Rice?ADP always scares me because I just feel like I am waiting on the guy to get hurt...CJ- with all of this holdout BS and his big mouth, I could see him getting one of those lingering, annoying injuries like a hammy or turf toe. Ray Rice is on a great team that is going to play smash mouth football. He also has Cam Cameron who made LT into the greatest fantasy RB since Marshall Faulk, who Cam Cameron had a part in as well. I could see Rice finishing the year as the best overall fantasy RB.

While I agree that Rice is just as likely as the other two to finish #1, I don't think he has the potential to put up 2500 and 20+. I could see the other two doing that and why I have Rice 3a to MJDs 3b.

 

[butcher boy]

Yeah why limit yourself to those 2 guys. The first round is about taking a guy who will put up guaranteed points. I could see taking anyone from ADP to Andre Johnson with the first pick. \

Hell, it could be debated that Frank Gore has less question marks and more upside than ADP this year.

 

[Sabertooth]

Adrian is the best running back of this generation. You are likely to regret passing on him.

I'm a huge fan of Peterson, but I'd like to know what you think he's done to be considered "the best running back of this generation."

Don't you watch football? He's amazing.

 

[rizzler]

Hell, it could be debated that Frank Gore has less question marks and more upside than ADP this year.

I'd like to hear the argument... 2 rookie OL give him the edge over AP?compare stats, situation and skill... i give all 3 edges to APim not knocking gore, hes a beast, but not on AP's level

 

[One]

Adrian is the best running back of this generation. You are likely to regret passing on him.

I'm a huge fan of Peterson, but I'd like to know what you think he's done to be considered "the best running back of this generation."

Don't you watch football? He's amazing.

Ah, I thought you had something statistical to back it up. Nevermind.

 

[Sabertooth]

Adrian is the best running back of this generation. You are likely to regret passing on him.

I'm a huge fan of Peterson, but I'd like to know what you think he's done to be considered "the best running back of this generation."

Don't you watch football? He's amazing.

Ah, I thought you had something statistical to back it up. Nevermind.

No, I actually watch the games. You should try it some time.

 

[One]

Adrian is the best running back of this generation. You are likely to regret passing on him.

I'm a huge fan of Peterson, but I'd like to know what you think he's done to be considered "the best running back of this generation."

Don't you watch football? He's amazing.

Ah, I thought you had something statistical to back it up. Nevermind.

No, I actually watch the games. You should try it some time.

Had AP all last year. Watched every game. Someone piss in your coffee this morning?

 

[baconisgood]

PPR go with CJ.

CJ had 7 more receptions that ADP last season and Chester Taylor has gone and left his 2.8 receptions per game are open and available.

 

[No Way Jose]

If you play in a league that deducts for fumbles take CJ.

 

[Sabertooth]

Had AP all last year. Watched every game. Someone piss in your coffee this morning?

No. Well, maybe but it must have been watered down. It didn't smell like vitamins or anything.

 

[rizzler]

Had AP all last year. Watched every game. Someone piss in your coffee this morning?

No. Well, maybe but it must have been watered down. It didn't smell like vitamins or anything.

ensure those close to your cereal are on a steady diet of asparagus... you'll never eat a powl of pisspy puffs again!

 

[Abraham]

PPR go with CJ.

CJ had 7 more receptions that ADP last season and Chester Taylor has gone and left his 2.8 receptions per game are open and available.

Am I the only one who didn't realize this? That's amazing.

 

[FUBAR]

Adrian is the best running back of this generation. You are likely to regret passing on him.

I'm a huge fan of Peterson, but I'd like to know what you think he's done to be considered "the best running back of this generation."

Don't you watch football? He's amazing.

Ah, I thought you had something statistical to back it up. Nevermind.

No, I actually watch the games. You should try it some time.

I take it you haven't seen any Titans games then. I like Peterson a lot, but I'm not convinced he's better than Tomlinson in his prime and find CJ better in 2009 anyway, hard to say for their career just yet. I'm taking CJ but that has as much to do with my being a Titans fan as which I think is actually better. (just very happy to have both in one league)

 

[FUBAR]

PPR go with CJ.

CJ had 7 more receptions that ADP last season and Chester Taylor has gone and left his 2.8 receptions per game are open and available.

Am I the only one who didn't realize this? That's amazing.

that you didn't know he doubled his # of receptions from 2008 and 2007? I guess that's amazing, you seem to know your stuff otherwise. Probably has something to do with the extra 100 passes Favre threw vs. the mess in Minnesota in 08. I'm not sure whether to expect "regression to the mean" or continued receptions now even assuming Favre plays. It's only 2 years but CJ has been consistent with receptions. I won't use receptions as the reason to take CJ, but I will use his 4 fumbles in 2 years vs. 20 in 3 for AD.

 

[Abraham]

PPR go with CJ.

CJ had 7 more receptions that ADP last season and Chester Taylor has gone and left his 2.8 receptions per game are open and available.

Am I the only one who didn't realize this? That's amazing.

that you didn't know he doubled his # of receptions from 2008 and 2007? I guess that's amazing, you seem to know your stuff otherwise. Probably has something to do with the extra 100 passes Favre threw vs. the mess in Minnesota in 08. I'm not sure whether to expect "regression to the mean" or continued receptions now even assuming Favre plays. It's only 2 years but CJ has been consistent with receptions. I won't use receptions as the reason to take CJ, but I will use his 4 fumbles in 2 years vs. 20 in 3 for AD.

I had a good idea about Peterson's receptions, I guess I just thought Johnson had more then 50 receptions.

 

[John 14:6]

I'm a Viking fan and have Adrian Peterson in my main league. That said, I'd pick Chris Johnson #1. However, I'm not so sold on CJ that I'd trade AP straight up for him. If the young Viking linemen can improve some this year, if AP can cut down on the fumbles and drops, and if he's fully healed from his small injury last year, he coudl finish as the top RB.

 

[AB in DC]

As long as Chris Johnson keeps threatening to hold out, stick with Peterson.

 

[No Way Jose]

As long as Chris Johnson keeps threatening to hold out, stick with Peterson.

Do you guys really think that he is not gonna play? He is just playing the game, he will be there.

 

[eoMMan]

Why isn't this a pole?

 

[Eviloutsider]

I like MJD more than Johnson but less than Peterson.

 

[butcher boy]

Hell, it could be debated that Frank Gore has less question marks and more upside than ADP this year.

I'd like to hear the argument... 2 rookie OL give him the edge over AP?compare stats, situation and skill... i give all 3 edges to APim not knocking gore, hes a beast, but not on AP's level

Gore put up his numbers last year behind the worst OL in the league, and with a QB half of the year that scared no one with deep passes so opposing teams could stack the box. The 2 rookie OL will be a huge improvement, and alex smith is starting the season this year instead of Hill.

 

[TitansFan10]

Profootballtalk.com reports that the Titans have worked out a "short-term" fix with regard to Chris Johnson's contract.

The restructured contract reportedly "solves the financial problems between team and player," at least for 2010. Johnson's rookie deal had three years and about $3.6 million in salary left on it, so it sounds like a large chunk of money was added to his 2010 compensation. No new years were added. After skipping all OTAs, Johnson should now be considered no threat to hold out. We project him to lead all rushers in fantasy points again this year.

 

[No Way Jose]

Profootballtalk.com reports that the Titans have worked out a "short-term" fix with regard to Chris Johnson's contract.

 

[jude]

Seriously its a tough decision if you have the #1 pick this year.

Disagree. It very likely will be the easiest decision all draft. Both are studs and if you pick the wrong one, you can't be faulted for taking a risk as both have performed exceptionally high for multiple years. And if one goes down with an injury, well that's just bad luck.

 

[Instinctive]

Isn't contract a moot point for CJ? I thought they reached some terms late yesterday or early today...

 

[Tchula]

I go with ADP for these reasons. 1.ADP is the only back to finish in the top 5 every year since ADP was a rookie. 2.CJ had over 400 carries last season. It is highly likely he will again this season. If he does, probability suggests it will wear him down. 3.CJ had an abnormally high number of long yardage TD's last season. Odds are that will not repeat itself. 4.CJ has that new contract he wanted. History suggests he has less to play for now that he got his. 5.The Titans are likely not a playoff caliber team. If they have nothing to play for at the end of the year, it makes sense to rest the franchise player. The Vikings might be playing for home field advantage or the division and need every win possible.

 

[TheFanatic]

I own both, in different leagues obviously, and would go with ADP over CJ at the 1.1

 

[[icon]]

I can see one of these two putting up elite RB1 numbers this year -

Next thing you know you'll be telling us water is wet.

Unless one of them gets injured, you'll get top 5 numbers out of both of them, so it's not that big of deal. You need to focus on the rest of your draft instead of focusing a bunch of time on who the #1 pick should be.

You won't win or lose because of who your #1 pick was, you'll win or lose based on your later picks.

I always found it amusing how much analysis goes on over 1st round picks, when the draft is typically won or lost much later on...

 

[One]

Seriously its a tough decision if you have the #1 pick this year.

Disagree. It very likely will be the easiest decision all draft.

+1. You can't go wrong.

 

[TheFanatic]

I can see one of these two putting up elite RB1 numbers this year -

Next thing you know you'll be telling us water is wet.

Unless one of them gets injured, you'll get top 5 numbers out of both of them, so it's not that big of deal. You need to focus on the rest of your draft instead of focusing a bunch of time on who the #1 pick should be.

You won't win or lose because of who your #1 pick was, you'll win or lose based on your later picks.

I always found it amusing how much analysis goes on over 1st round picks, when the draft is typically won or lost much later on...

Good call. I always felt you could lose your season in the first round but not win it. You win your season with guys in the 5th, 6th, 7th, etc....

 

[Football Jones]

I have CJ & MJD a tight 1-2. AP is a clear step below them, IMO. There's multiple reasons the Vikes went out & got Toby Gerhart. One reason is Gerhart very likely could be there GL back (& that's actually what I'm predicting). AP's fumble problems are real. Don't ignore it. Great RB, but it's a weakness of his (at least right now). Nothing hurts a team more than getting down near the GL & having a TO.

For PPR leagues, the distance is even greater between CJ/MJD & AP. As far as the race between CJ & MJD, MJD could easily end up as the highest-scoring player in FF this season if their OL improves &/or Garrard progresses a little bit.

 

[John 14:6]

I'm surprised there hasn't been a "wrong forum" post yet...

 

[Ray_T]

It isn't a tough decision. Adrian Peterson is a great back who has produced through a bunch of different scenarios. He's had bad QBs, good QBs, split carries, had wideout help, no wideout help, he's produced while tight ends were producing and while they weren't.Chris Johnson caught the perfect storm last season. To his credit he was money. But situations are volatile and we've only got one year of production to base our opinions on. ADP is the choice. His is far more likely to finish in the top 3 or 4 and just as likely to finish #1. Same ceiling, higher floor. Also he has much better character than Chris Johnson. I could see Johnson pulling some tomfoolery if he don't get paid. Adrian is a pro's pro and he'll just work that much harder if he feels slighted. Just my opinion of course. Adrian is the best running back of this generation. You are likely to regret passing on him.

I agree. this is one of those situations where you gotta look at the track record, and ADP has been producing at a high level from day one.Chris Johnson has only produced at this level for one season which leads a person to think 'what if this is the only year he does this?'I do think he is the real deal, but in a redraft, you gotta go with the sure thing and ADP is as close to a sure thing as you're gonna find.

 

[Instinctive]

I always felt you could lose your season in the first round but not win it. You win your season with guys in the 5th, 6th, 7th, etc....

Completely disagree. If you had LT in the 1st his record setting season, or Marshall Faulk in either of his, or even CJ last year, that homerun type of pick did more to win your league than perhaps Steve Slaton did to lose it.Now, you have to hit that homerun, which is pretty much one guy a year...

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

I can see one of these two putting up elite RB1 numbers this year -

Next thing you know you'll be telling us water is wet.

Unless one of them gets injured, you'll get top 5 numbers out of both of them, so it's not that big of deal. You need to focus on the rest of your draft instead of focusing a bunch of time on who the #1 pick should be.

You won't win or lose because of who your #1 pick was, you'll win or lose based on your later picks.

I always found it amusing how much analysis goes on over 1st round picks, when the draft is typically won or lost much later on...

Good call. I always felt you could lose your season in the first round but not win it. You win your season with guys in the 5th, 6th, 7th, etc....

That is true, but can you blame a guy who knows he has the No. 1 pick in the draft and he feels like discussing it a bit a month or so before a draft?I think another great discussion is after you take Chris Johnson at No. 1, in a 12 team draft who are you looking to snag realisticaly on the following turn, depending upon your scoring of course.

I'm just saying, I have no problems with people who have the No. 1 pick being a little geeked up and going over who they should take with the No. 1 pick. I haven't had the NO. 1 pick in a major draft in several years myself, so my advice to those that have it enjoy it because you don't get it every year. It doesn't gaurantee you anything but it's fun to have and it's not like the guy who gets the No. 1 pick in the draft is going to give it away to the guy who has the 12th pick for nothing either.

For what it's worth, Chris Johnson is easily the NO. 1 pick. I have ADP as my No. 4 back right now.

 

[newteech]

Surprising thing I read today - no back in the history of the NFL has had 2 seasons of rushing for more than 2000 yards.

I think I'd take ADP.

 

[One]

Surprising thing I read today - no back in the history of the NFL has had 2 seasons of rushing for more than 2000 yards.I think I'd take ADP.

Johnson didn't need 2,000 yards to end up RB1 over AP.Chris Johnson had 75 more fantasy points than Adrian Peterson in my PPR league last season.In terms of yardage, that's 750 yards difference. CJ would have outscored Peterson with only 1,300 rushing yards.

2.CJ had over 400 carries last season.

Johnson had 358 carries.

4.CJ has that new contract he wanted.

This is false. He got a band-aid of a contract change, he and Tenn will re-discuss his contract again later.

5.The Titans are likely not a playoff caliber team. If they have nothing to play for at the end of the year, it makes sense to rest the franchise player.

Kinda like last season?

Chris Johnson caught the perfect storm last season. To his credit he was money. But situations are volatile and we've only got one year of production to base our opinions on.

Besides LenDale White leaving, how has his situation changed?

 

[fruity pebbles]

You people saying CJ has only had one good year realize that he had 1500 yards and 10 TDs in 2008 correct? 400 yards less than AP and the same number of TDs. That with over 100 fewer carries and in 15 games vs the 16 games AP played. In a ppr he scored only 17 points less than AP in one fewer game.