The 2024 Overlooked Offense - there's gold in them there teams (1 Viewer)

[The Dude]

Seems like every year a team or two blow up - not just past expectations but to top 10 offenses. Take Dallas from 2024. Here are some characteristics I think Dallas had that we should have spotted pre-draft


-Above average defense that could smash weaker teams (their defense wasn't great against good teams)
-Weak schedule
-Good offensive unit (o-line, QB, WR, TE)
- A change in playcallers (Winslow to Mccarthy) to a more throw heavy scheme

There may be other factors and not all these are required for an offense to blow up.

So who are some candidates for blow up players?

Falcons - easy schedule, new OC. McVay tree likes to throw the ball. Only 5 teams threw the ball over 62% of the time last year - 3 of those offenses run by McVay tree (Vikes, Bengals, Seahawks)
Pitts may be a steal; Mooney as well

Seattle - new HC, OC, OLine C - but the last 2 have no NFL experience. 7th easiest schedule which may help o-line.
With some hesitancy, Metcalf could go off

Colts - weak schedule. No change in playcalling but getting back a healthy QB and a healthier Taylor. Steichen is the only playcaller to score more TDs rushing than passing each of the last 3 seasons.
Taylor may make a run at top 3 RB

Shoot holes or do your own call outs

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Tennessee Titans

 

[Chaka]

Colts QB & RB are both being drafted in the top 5 at their position. Can we really consider them overlooked?

Personally I think Cleveland may be overlooked with Amari around the 25th WR off the board and Deshaun the 21st QB. Jerome Ford is currently the 40th RB off the board, he's not great but he's probably better than that. Personally I am in the camp that Deshaun is not washed. He is two years removed from any real news about what an ####### he is and is seemingly healthy. He'll turn 29 next month so I think he potentially has a lot of football ahead of him. If he recaptures even 80% of what he was in Houston the entire Cleveland offense will prove to be undervalued.

 

[Chaka]

Tennessee Titans

Because?

I'm just having trouble seeing this one. @Bri has been providing daily updates and my biggest takeaway from them is Levis may be on the rise but he's also been consistently inconsistent. They may outperform ADP but how high do we see anyone on that offense rising?

 

[BobbyLayne]

Tennessee Titans

Can get on board this, IF the right side of the OLine holds up. I feel like Levis has just about THE widest range of outcomes. He can make plays and he has no fear, on the bad way. 30-30 is on the table. Or he balls out in Y2. Y1-Y2 is a huge take a leap forward for RBs, I love Spears in a slightly expanded but still mostly a PPR machine. Age concerns aside, be wary of betting against DHop, and Ridley is def poised for a career year.

Love the Callahans; expecting the young HC to do good things over the next 2-3 years, while the old man is flat out the best OL coach in the NFL. May not win many games but they’re gonna be fun to watch.

 

[Chaka]

Sticking with the AFC South. Could this be the year that everything finally "clicks" for Trevor Lawrence and he goes from being a Mark Brunnell (good not great) into the "generational talent" he was projected to be when he was drafted? If it happens for him, and it certainly could, the Jags could be a lot better on offense than their respective ADPs suggest (Lawrence QB16, Kirk WR30 even ETN RB10 could get a bump).

 

[Chaka]

The way Bo Nix is looking so far in Denver the Broncos could be a pleasant surprise. I don't want to read too much into a rookie preseason but in today's pass happy NFL, rookie QBs with great coaching can bring out good/great offensive performances.

 

[cheese]

Tennessee Titans

Because?

I'm just having trouble seeing this one. @Bri has been providing daily updates and my biggest takeaway from them is Levis may be on the rise but he's also been consistently inconsistent. They may outperform ADP but how high do we see anyone on that offense rising?

Callahan is just not going to call anything but a pass-happy offense. They were throwing at one of the highest rates in the league last year with Jake Browning. If you just think Will Levis can replicate Jake Browning, then Levis and his pass catchers are going way too low.

 

[Chaka]

I think people are closely monitoring Washington and Chicago already. But there could still be some value there even as their respective skill position players are creeping up draft boards since the preseason kicked off.

 

[Chaka]

Tennessee Titans

Because?

I'm just having trouble seeing this one. @Bri has been providing daily updates and my biggest takeaway from them is Levis may be on the rise but he's also been consistently inconsistent. They may outperform ADP but how high do we see anyone on that offense rising?

Callahan is just not going to call anything but a pass-happy offense. He was throwing at one of the highest rates in the league last year with Jake Browning. If you just think Will Levis can replicate Jake Browning, then Levis and his pass catchers are going way too low.

I'm not sure that I do.

Maybe the coaching will make all the difference but Browning put up really impressive numbers overall (70% completions, 8 yards/attempt). I am not entirely ready to call Callahan a QB whisperer yet but, if he is then, yes the Titans can absolutely exceed expectations.

 

[Chaka]

Tampa Bay may be a tad underrated. I hate that they lost Canales though. Liam Coen was pretty unimpressive in his one season as OC for the Rams in 2022 but he did get some solid performances out of Mayfield with very limited time to learn the offense. I don't like that McVay let him walk (or fired him) to go be the OC at Kentucky (really?).

But, Mayfield is a talented QB and if he has actually turned his career around and 2023 wasn't just a blip on an otherwise downward trajectory then the Bucs, not the trendy Falcons, will be atop the NFC South again and several Bucs players will likely have exceeded their ADPs.

 

[Chaka]

My first impulse was to say Arizona but, looking at the ADP charts they are probably just as likely being overdrafted than underdrafted. Murray QB8, Harrison WR9, McBride TE3. The only one who is probably not being overdrafted ATM is Conner (RB20).

 

[Chaka]

@The Dude thanks for this thread, it's a nice thought exercise.

 

[cheese]

Tennessee Titans

Because?

I'm just having trouble seeing this one. @Bri has been providing daily updates and my biggest takeaway from them is Levis may be on the rise but he's also been consistently inconsistent. They may outperform ADP but how high do we see anyone on that offense rising?

Callahan is just not going to call anything but a pass-happy offense. He was throwing at one of the highest rates in the league last year with Jake Browning. If you just think Will Levis can replicate Jake Browning, then Levis and his pass catchers are going way too low.

I'm not sure that I do.

Maybe the coaching will make all the difference but Browning put up really impressive numbers overall (70% completions, 8 yards/attempt). I am not entirely ready to call Callahan a QB whisperer yet but, if he is then, yes the Titans can absolutely exceed expectations.

I see what you mean, but even if it doesn’t work for efficiency, it could still work for fantasy. Levis in that offense without efficiency gives us like a Sam Howell 2023 year right?

 

[Anarchy99]

Falcons - Hard for all the players in question to have banner years . . . Bijan already considered a Top 3 RB, London a Top 12 WR, and Pitts a Top 6-7 TE. Mooney could see more work with Moore going on IR, but ATL already has high fantasy expectations and a lot of mouths to feed. Many sites already have them projected at 600+ passing attempts. Not sure where more production comes from . . . it's already baked into the projections.

Seahawks - I see 3 WR getting a very similar target share. Metcalf saw fewer targets with the addition of JSN. Barring injury to JSN or Lockett, I don't see where Metcalf organically sees a huge jump in targets. I thought I saw the new regime was going to have a more balanced offense (which would help Walker more than the WRs).

Colts - Taylor is already viewed by many as a Top 3-5 RB for this season. That being said, in the games Richardson played last year, QBs owned 25% of the carry share (29 to 85) . . . but Taylor wasn't playing then. Who knows what to take from such a small sample size, but that ratio may cut into the projected RB carries and scoring opportunities (Richardson 4 TD in 5 games). If they want to give Taylor a huge chunk of the RB workload, then his projections could work out . . . but I am curious if they might reduce his workload more than they did in the past.

 

[Anarchy99]

My first impulse was to say Arizona but, looking at the ADP charts they are probably just as likely being overdrafted than underdrafted. Murray QB8

Since he entered the league (5 years ago), Murray ranks QB7 in fantasy ppg. Over the past 4 years, that jumps to 3rd. That being said, his past two seasons haven't been as strong, but Murray should still be a solid bet to be a QB1 for fantasy in ppg when he plays.

 

[Bri]

Tennessee Titans

Because?

I'm just having trouble seeing this one. @Bri has been providing daily updates and my biggest takeaway from them is Levis may be on the rise but he's also been consistently inconsistent. They may outperform ADP but how high do we see anyone on that offense rising?

I would venture a guess they're the most debated team BUT everyone's drafted late so it's important to sorta make a mental note of that.
With TDs it's easy to guess anyone outperforms their ADP. That's always the case with every player but for the Titans it seems ugh. I put everyone down for five TDs to start and kind of go from there.
Everyone is a catch-22 type. Pollard could rock in PPR or Spears could but I doubt they both do. They're being drafted as subs.
Hopkins and Ridley seem to be drafted as third fourth WR maybe because you grabbed a couple RBs or went TE or somesuch. Ridley and Levis are outstanding when hot but clearly they can get cold. Levis loves Hopkins as every QB has and...idk that I want to pick between these two either.
TEs- Whyle seems to have the starting spot but Chig is playing FB and slot and once you start projecting opportunities you sort of put the brakes on and remember Cincinnati doesn't use the TEs alot. BUT their OC (who isn't calling plays) is from Jax where they do.
It's constant back n forth.
I can get behind anyone having a great year or down year.

As Bobby said the right side of the OL is a prob and they decided to go with two guys that haven't been the solution previously so that's a bit weird but I simply assume Daddy Callahan knows what he's doing. I sure have doubts in the players there but they've beaten out everyone brought in and....idk. Now the Titans are starting four drafted tackles and a C so it's a bit weird.

Levis is everything. He's got as good an arm as anyone and can make mistakes and look like a rookie. It's so difficult to project every second year QB and Levis has a zillion variables with staff and new players.

Somewhere in here is Boyd, Chestnut, and Jackson(s) possibly taking reps away. I like Boyd because he seems to own that he's older and lost a step. I really like last pick Chestnut. I don't think there's a better last pick in FF. Any time they miss Henry or need the tough yards or GL carry....I just think work is going to keep popping up for this kid. He's pretty impressive surprisingly and us Titans fans have been waiting a few years for him to get a shot so who knows what happens if he does impress. Jahquan is small or short speed. Every team has one. Kearis looks like a better pro than college and he always gets hurt so idk if he makes it.
Burks I'm not getting burned on. I've got him as a sub if someone gets hurt and at that time I'll pick him off the WW. Apparently I don't care how much he's improved when I'm drafting. As I've said Hopkins practiced after being injured so his injury was not a concern and already the magical reports of him healing and being ready for week one. So don't draft Burks thinking Nuk is beginning out with an injury.

 

[Scoresman]

Titans are not going to be a top 10 offense. They are on the rise and made good moves this offseason, but it's going to take more than one year to turn that around.

I have the Cots and Falcons entering the top 10 who weren't there last year.

I have the Rams and Vikings dropping out.

Other teams with an outside shot at top 10? I'd say GB and CIN are the best bets.

 

[Scoresman]

In order for TEN to make the top 10, they would have to gain about 1,000 more total yards than last year, all while having lost one of the greatest RBs going right now.

 

[Chaka]

Falcons - Hard for all the players in question to have banner years . . . Bijan already considered a Top 3 RB, London a Top 12 WR, and Pitts a Top 6-7 TE. Mooney could see more work with Moore going on IR, but ATL already has high fantasy expectations and a lot of mouths to feed. Many sites already have them projected at 600+ passing attempts. Not sure where more production comes from . . . it's already baked into the projections.

Mooney is definitely someone I will target with a late round pick. He may outperform Pitts who, despite coaching issues still hasn't really looked the part of the mismatch nightmare he was projected to be when he came out.

Cousins also seems to have some room to outperform his QB18 ADP.

 

[Bri]

Falcons - Hard for all the players in question to have banner years . . . Bijan already considered a Top 3 RB, London a Top 12 WR, and Pitts a Top 6-7 TE. Mooney could see more work with Moore going on IR, but ATL already has high fantasy expectations and a lot of mouths to feed. Many sites already have them projected at 600+ passing attempts. Not sure where more production comes from . . . it's already baked into the projections.

Seahawks - I see 3 WR getting a very similar target share. Metcalf saw fewer targets with the addition of JSN. Barring injury to JSN or Lockett, I don't see where Metcalf organically sees a huge jump in targets. I thought I saw the new regime was going to have a more balanced offense (which would help Walker more than the WRs).

The Falcons lack depth at WR and many questions McCloud as WR3. I like the lofty projections but most of their young talent is going to have to step up. They've been more balanced and like London- I'd double him every play. If Mooney or McCloud become a problem I'll adjust but ...most of them are like big time now and we'll see.
The Falcons coach seems to be hypocritical about their RBs. Algeier isn't getting work then he appreciates him and he is. Bijan gets tired. He's not Barry or Emmett or Henry. He needs breathers and is clearly on the sideline and it's fine to sub someone in. How does that affect his stats? Some have said because he was so sick last year he developed that. Maybe but the workhorses never look that out of breath and he's already an adonis so I can't imagine it's a workout issue.

The Seahawks can't block for the run. I read a lot of them recently and it's a constant concern. The Titans big two DL were wayyy too much for them to handle. They were rotating players on the right and it didn't seem to matter if it was the Titans gems or no name DL. Usually if lines can't do one thing well they fall apart. I gotta wonder about Geno staying upright if the line is bad. The articles aren't overly positive either about the OL. Mostly creative bandaid phrases with free agents and I feel like my old self can "smell" a problem.

Metcalf looks phenomenal according to everyone. As if somehow one of the freakiest athletes got bigger n stronger or something outlandish. Lockett has a lot of people questioning him and for all the praise JSN gets, they seem to like Bobo near the goalline and on key third downs like if there's a play to be made, he'll make it. I question JSNs TD totals because of that

 

[Chaka]

Titans are not going to be a top 10 offense.

Is top 10 offense the benchmark for this thread?

If they are projected to be bottom 10, and they effectively are with QB, WR, RB or TE really not projected to be drafted as a starting option at their position (Levis QB24, Chig TE24, Ridley WR34, Hopkins WR44, Pollard RB27, Spears RB34) and they perform in the 12-16 range, isn't that also worth being mentioned in this thread?

 

[Bri]

In order for TEN to make the top 10, they would have to gain about 1,000 more total yards than last year, all while having lost one of the greatest RBs going right now.

This has become a question of eras and I don't like the debate.
Are two talented scat backs of 2024 better than a sled dog from the 80s and 90s?

I like my sled dogs

 

[Scoresman]

Titans are not going to be a top 10 offense.

Is top 10 offense the benchmark for this thread?

If they are projected to be bottom 10, and they effectively are with QB, WR, RB or TE really not projected to be drafted as a starting option at their position (Levis QB24, Chig TE24, Ridley WR34, Hopkins WR44, Pollard RB27, Spears RB34) and they perform in the 12-16 range, isn't that also worth being mentioned in this thread?

I mean, it's in the first sentence of the thread.

I definitely think TEN will be improved. They are going in the right direction. I think their realistic ceiling this year is somewhere in the middle. 14-17.

 

[Anarchy99]

Bijan gets tired. He's not Barry or Emmett or Henry.

The days of the bell cow, 300+ touch backs are few and far between. There were 6 of them last year. Bijan averaged 22 and 23 touches a game his last two seasons in college. That dropped to 16 in the NFL (but he played more games). He still ranked 12th in RB touches. I've seen projections where he gets 2 more carries a game to get him into the Top 3 fantasy scoring wise. That doesn't seem unreasonable, but I wonder if that will increase the likelihood that he tweaks something and misses some time.

 

[Chaka]

I mean, it's in the first sentence of the thread.

Oh please, what does the OP know?

 

[The Dude]

I thought about adding Titan and Broncos to the list but IMO not enough talent to ascend to a top offense.

Also thought about the Bears but don't thin they are ready

 

[The Dude]

Colts QB & RB are both being drafted in the top 5 at their position. Can we really consider them overlooked?

Chaka and all, what are your thoughts here: I think the Colts are in a similar situation to Dallas last year but with a twist:

2023: Dallas had a RB and WR both usually drafted in the 5-10 spot at their position. The running game under produced and opened the door for Lamb to crush.

2024: Colts have an easy schedule. They are unlikely to have a WR to ascend much over their ADP due to the nature of the offense - more rushing TDs than passing. It looks to me in this case that the RB may crush and score 12 or more TDs and move into top 3 or so RBs.

 

[Chaka]

Colts QB & RB are both being drafted in the top 5 at their position. Can we really consider them overlooked?

Chaka and all, what are your thoughts here: I think the Colts are in a similar situation to Dallas last year but with a twist:

2023: Dallas had a RB and WR both usually drafted in the 5-10 spot at their position. The running game under produced and opened the door for Lamb to crush.

2024: Colts have an easy schedule. They are unlikely to have a WR to ascend much over their ADP due to the nature of the offense - more rushing TDs than passing. It looks to me in this case that the RB may crush and score 12 or more TDs and move into top 3 or so RBs.

Anything ultimately can represent being overlooked if you achieve higher than where you're taken. But Jonathan Taylor is being drafted as the number four running back already, so if he finishes is the number three, or even number one running back does that make him, in the context of this thread, overlooked today?

It's your thread so you get to make that decision.

 

[Chardo1]

Good thread, but I don't agree with the initial example. Dallas was the #3 scoring team in 2022, and #1 the year before that, Last season should not have surprised anyone.

 

[The Dude]

Good thread, but I don't agree with the initial example. Dallas was the #3 scoring team in 2022, and #1 the year before that, Last season should not have surprised anyone.

I could have spelled it out better. More looking at platers that blew up in an ascending offense - like Lamb - people weren’t seeing that ctoming

 

[Chardo1]

Good thread, but I don't agree with the initial example. Dallas was the #3 scoring team in 2022, and #1 the year before that, Last season should not have surprised anyone.

I could have spelled it out better. More looking at platers that blew up in an ascending offense - like Lamb - people weren’t seeing that ctoming

Many did see it coming. Lamb was huge the year before, 107-1359-9, Those are monster numbers. He blew up further because the running game disappointed and he got an extra 25 targets. I guess what you're looking for is, which top WR is on a team that may struggle more with the run, causing even more passing. Nico Collins? Davante Adams? JaMarr Chase?

 

[Scoresman]

Good thread, but I don't agree with the initial example. Dallas was the #3 scoring team in 2022, and #1 the year before that, Last season should not have surprised anyone.

I could have spelled it out better. More looking at platers that blew up in an ascending offense - like Lamb - people weren’t seeing that ctoming

Many did see it coming. Lamb was huge the year before, 107-1359-9, Those are monster numbers. He blew up further because the running game disappointed and he got an extra 25 targets. I guess what you're looking for is, which top WR is on a team that may struggle more with the run, causing even more passing. Nico Collins? Davante Adams? JaMarr Chase?

Nabers
McLaurin
Ridley

 

[3nOut]

For where they are being drafted, I kind of like some of the Commanders starters.

 

[Deamon]

Also some similar discussion here:

Predicting the Top Offenses

One of the main things that makes drafting a particular player attractive is if he plays on a top offense. This would suggest that accurately predicting who the top offenses are going to be should be a valuable exercise. I do my projections by team so I can easily see where I have each team...

forums.footballguys.com

Surprisingly good offenses this year?

So last year I was taken by surprise by my Miami Dolphins. I did not see Hill and Waddle doing what they did and I certainly didn't see Tua lighting it up until he got hurt. I was also Surprised by Detroit, but not as much bc good o lines lead to good fantasy outcomes. So lets talk about...

forums.footballguys.com

 

[TheDirtyWord]

No for ARI?

Drew Petzig got pretty solid reviews his 1st year as OC with a rough QB situation.

Now you've got Kyler back to 100%

Skill position talent included MHJ, Connor, McBride, Wilson and Dortch. They've made some investments in the OL (Jonah Williams and 3rd rounder Isaiah Adams) although work still necessary here. But the defense is still a major project.

But this would be my vote

 

[Ilov80s]

I am big on Seattle over performing- especially DK, JSN and Fant.

I also think the Jags are being overlooked- much of it because of some bad injury luck and poor OL play. They made efforts to fix the line. TLaw got hyped last year, underperformed and now he's getting written off for fantasy but he's still a very talented young QB. ETN was on pace to be a top 5 RB before the offensive wheels came off. I think Ridley was pretty blah, so was Zay. Bringing in Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas is actually an improvement IMO and makes the offense so much more explosive.