The Audible - news and notes 4/3/09 (1 Viewer)

[Cecil Lammey]

http://podcast.footballguys.com/2009/Footb...2009-Vol66a.mp3

In This Episode: Cecil Lammey and Sigmund Bloom break down the top stories from around the NFL. Topics include: Jay Cutler traded to the Bears, can Kyle Orton be a solid starter with Josh McDaniels, more potential trades on the horizon, plus more!

enjoy!

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[Jason Wood]

Cecil, Denver got the better end of the deal? Yikes

Now, to be fair, they MAY get the better end of the deal, but that's only if they really hit home runs with those 1sts and 3rd.

 

[Jason Wood]

Orton will throw about 25 touchdowns!??!?!

Bro..in the last decade there have been 59 instances of QBs throwing 25 or more TDs, an average of just six per season.

And those 59 instances all came via just 25 different signal callers.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/h...c&display=p

 

[foxco]

Orton will throw about 25 touchdowns!??!?!Bro..in the last decade there have been 59 instances of QBs throwing 25 or more TDs, an average of just six per season. And those 59 instances all came via just 25 different signal callers.

Not impossible. Orton threw 18 last year with poor wide recievers (and missing a game and a half). Not outlandish to think he could end up with 7 more TDs with Marshall/Royal instead of the mush he used to have in Chicago.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Nice! THANKS

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Orton will throw about 25 touchdowns!??!?!Bro..in the last decade there have been 59 instances of QBs throwing 25 or more TDs, an average of just six per season. And those 59 instances all came via just 25 different signal callers.

Not impossible. Orton threw 18 last year with poor wide recievers (and missing a game and a half). Not outlandish to think he could end up with 7 more TDs with Marshall/Royal instead of the mush he used to have in Chicago.

He could have thrown 25 in Chicago if he could hit an open receiver down the field.

 

[Jason Wood]

Orton will throw about 25 touchdowns!??!?!Bro..in the last decade there have been 59 instances of QBs throwing 25 or more TDs, an average of just six per season. And those 59 instances all came via just 25 different signal callers.

Not impossible. Orton threw 18 last year with poor wide recievers (and missing a game and a half). Not outlandish to think he could end up with 7 more TDs with Marshall/Royal instead of the mush he used to have in Chicago.

You have less than 6 25+ TD seasons in the league each year, you're going to project Kyle Orton as one of them? Seriously?Just to put some flesh on those bones, last year Kyle Orton threw 18 TDs in 465 attempts, a 3.9% TD conversion rate. Assuming he maintains that same rate, he would need to throw 646 times to throw 25 TD passes. Meanwhile last year's 3.9% rate was the best of Orton's career. Even if you want to argue he can raise his TD conversion rate in Denver, let's say to 4.3% conversion rate...He would need 581 attempts. Keep in mind that 4.3% would be a) one of the league's best rates typically and b) higher than Cutler's own TD% in Denver.

 

[Jason Wood]

Bloom, GREAT point about Jacksonville being smart to investigate Sanchez if for no other reason than leverage. A team like Jacksonville that assumes it won't be picking that high most seasons absolutely should recognize the power of being in the position to take a franchise QB, even if they have no intention. Gives them a ton of leverage on draft day. Well said

 

[todisco1]

Orton will throw about 25 touchdowns!??!?!Bro..in the last decade there have been 59 instances of QBs throwing 25 or more TDs, an average of just six per season. And those 59 instances all came via just 25 different signal callers.

Not impossible. Orton threw 18 last year with poor wide recievers (and missing a game and a half). Not outlandish to think he could end up with 7 more TDs with Marshall/Royal instead of the mush he used to have in Chicago.

You have less than 6 25+ TD seasons in the league each year, you're going to project Kyle Orton as one of them? Seriously?Just to put some flesh on those bones, last year Kyle Orton threw 18 TDs in 465 attempts, a 3.9% TD conversion rate. Assuming he maintains that same rate, he would need to throw 646 times to throw 25 TD passes. Meanwhile last year's 3.9% rate was the best of Orton's career. Even if you want to argue he can raise his TD conversion rate in Denver, let's say to 4.3% conversion rate...He would need 581 attempts. Keep in mind that 4.3% would be a) one of the league's best rates typically and b) higher than Cutler's own TD% in Denver.

Do you think it's possible that:A) Orton improves, as this would only be his 3rd season startingB) With the best WRs he has had by far, his conversion rate could improve quite dramaticallyI don't think it's going to happen, but I do think 22-23 TDs is definitely possible.

 

[Jason Wood]

Orton will throw about 25 touchdowns!??!?!Bro..in the last decade there have been 59 instances of QBs throwing 25 or more TDs, an average of just six per season. And those 59 instances all came via just 25 different signal callers.

Not impossible. Orton threw 18 last year with poor wide recievers (and missing a game and a half). Not outlandish to think he could end up with 7 more TDs with Marshall/Royal instead of the mush he used to have in Chicago.

You have less than 6 25+ TD seasons in the league each year, you're going to project Kyle Orton as one of them? Seriously?Just to put some flesh on those bones, last year Kyle Orton threw 18 TDs in 465 attempts, a 3.9% TD conversion rate. Assuming he maintains that same rate, he would need to throw 646 times to throw 25 TD passes. Meanwhile last year's 3.9% rate was the best of Orton's career. Even if you want to argue he can raise his TD conversion rate in Denver, let's say to 4.3% conversion rate...He would need 581 attempts. Keep in mind that 4.3% would be a) one of the league's best rates typically and b) higher than Cutler's own TD% in Denver.

Do you think it's possible that:A) Orton improves, as this would only be his 3rd season startingB) With the best WRs he has had by far, his conversion rate could improve quite dramaticallyI don't think it's going to happen, but I do think 22-23 TDs is definitely possible.

Anything is possible, but let's also not forget a) this is a new system [for Orton and the Broncos] and b) why on Earth would we assume Orton would be MORE efficient than Cutler was with the same players?

 

[Cecil Lammey]

Woodrow, I had a feeling you might enjoy some of my thoughts on Kyle Orton! he can succeed in this system, it's very similar to what he ran in college at Purdue. Downfield accuracy isn't as important in this system as it is in a traditional offense. Marshall=Moss, Royal=Welker Running game will be a RBBC, and a total mess for fantasy football.

I believe in this system, and even though he hasn't had 4 years in it like Matt Cassell, I believe that Orton can run it effectively. He has not been protected like this, with a couple of bookend tackles that are still underrated league wide. Jay was sacked only 11 times in 2008. Ryan Clady and Ryan Harris should once again be outstanding, and create a nice pocket for Kyle. Unlike Jay, who was forcing things to Marshall early on - then learned to look elsewhere - then went back to throwing/forcing to Marshall when he was pressured, I believe that Kyle will run the system. Dump it off when he needs to, and throw it away whenever necessary. Take what's there, and drain the clock.

Never in the history of the NFL has there been an offense who was top 2 in yards, and not in the top half of scoring offenses. The 2008 Broncos could move the ball up and down the field through the air. However, they would break down when it was time to score TDs. Some of that was the predictable play calling, crazy ### play calling (bubble screens to Daniel Graham!?!), and Jay Cutler forcing the ball.

Finally Kyle is in a contract year, and if he wants to stay in Denver he'll have to have a career year. AND REMEMBER, Kyle Orton was not a "throw in" on this deal. he was very important to the trade getting done. Coach McDaniels wanted a QB that can be effective in this system, whether that was Matt Cassell, Brady Quinn, or Kyle Orton. He wanted one of those guys over Jay Cutler. (Denver did not want Jason Campbell).

I trust in the coach, I trust in the system, I know the playmakers/OL around him, and I believe that an effective QB in this system could throw for 25 TD passes in 2009. I do not think that he'll throw for more than 25, but 20-25 is realistic.

 

[Jason Wood]

Woodrow, I had a feeling you might enjoy some of my thoughts on Kyle Orton! he can succeed in this system, it's very similar to what he ran in college at Purdue. Downfield accuracy isn't as important in this system as it is in a traditional offense. Marshall=Moss, Royal=Welker Running game will be a RBBC, and a total mess for fantasy football. I believe in this system, and even though he hasn't had 4 years in it like Matt Cassell, I believe that Orton can run it effectively. He has not been protected like this, with a couple of bookend tackles that are still underrated league wide. Jay was sacked only 11 times in 2008. Ryan Clady and Ryan Harris should once again be outstanding, and create a nice pocket for Kyle. Unlike Jay, who was forcing things to Marshall early on - then learned to look elsewhere - then went back to throwing/forcing to Marshall when he was pressured, I believe that Kyle will run the system. Dump it off when he needs to, and throw it away whenever necessary. Take what's there, and drain the clock. Never in the history of the NFL has there been an offense who was top 2 in yards, and not in the top half of scoring offenses. The 2008 Broncos could move the ball up and down the field through the air. However, they would break down when it was time to score TDs. Some of that was the predictable play calling, crazy ### play calling (bubble screens to Daniel Graham!?!), and Jay Cutler forcing the ball.Finally Kyle is in a contract year, and if he wants to stay in Denver he'll have to have a career year. AND REMEMBER, Kyle Orton was not a "throw in" on this deal. he was very important to the trade getting done. Coach McDaniels wanted a QB that can be effective in this system, whether that was Matt Cassell, Brady Quinn, or Kyle Orton. He wanted one of those guys over Jay Cutler. (Denver did not want Jason Campbell). I trust in the coach, I trust in the system, I know the playmakers/OL around him, and I believe that an effective QB in this system could throw for 25 TD passes in 2009. I do not think that he'll throw for more than 25, but 20-25 is realistic.

But you're speaking of this 'system' as though it's plug and play. Marshall does NOT equal Moss. When Marshall is healthy he's a great talent, but he's not Randy Moss. Meanwhile Marshall isn't healthy, and we don't know if he's going to be suspended, and we don't know how he'll handle his new coach, and we can't guess how he'll handle Kyle Orton as his QB. I'll concede the Royal/Welker comparison for the sake of the conversation. But why on Earth would I accept that McDaniels = Belichick or McCoy = McDaniels? How many Pats assistants have replicated the "Patriots system" in their new digs? And how many times have we seen this kind of thing before. Have all WCO disciples been plug and play? Tell that to the Lions [Mary M and Mooch], tell that to the 49ers in the last decade, tell that to the Texans. Have all 3-4s worked the same? It's great that you believe in the 'system.' But every cog in the wheel here is unproven. And again, you said on the show you could reasonably EXPECT 25 TDs out of Kyle Orton. That's crazy talk. That's his high upside, tops. Jay Cutler, who no credible person would argue isn't a better QB than Kyle Orton, threw 25 TDs last year and that was with 600+ attempts, a porous defense and no running game. If you really believe in the coaches and the "system" then you also believe they'll find a way to get the defense improved and to get the running game going. That means fewer attempts for Orton, which means 25 TDs is a pipe dream.There's a HUGE difference between 20 TDs over a 16-game season and 25 TDs. Saying "20-25 TDs" is akin to saying a RB is going to get "20-25 carries per game." Sound good when you say it but the reality makes it very hard to accomplish.If Orton wins the job, and if he keeps hit, and if McDaniels is a good head coach, and if McCoy is a good OC, and if Marshall's mind is right and if Marshall is healthy, and if the RBBC works, I could see Orton with 20-22 TDs. Maybe.

 

[GECKO]

bueno

continuar con mis amigos

 

[Pictus Cat]

Excellent Faceoff Preview.

 

[Rockchild]

[if Orton wins the job, and if he keeps hit, and if McDaniels is a good head coach, and if McCoy is a good OC, and if Marshall's mind is right and if Marshall is healthy, and if the RBBC works, I could see Orton with 20-22 TDs. Maybe.

Last year, Cassell threw 21 TD's in this system that he had 3 years to learn and everyone else has been in that system for at least a couple of years. I would, at best, expect Orton to duplicate his numbers from last year.

 

[Jason Wood]

[if Orton wins the job, and if he keeps hit, and if McDaniels is a good head coach, and if McCoy is a good OC, and if Marshall's mind is right and if Marshall is healthy, and if the RBBC works, I could see Orton with 20-22 TDs. Maybe.

Last year, Cassell threw 21 TD's in this system that he had 3 years to learn and everyone else has been in that system for at least a couple of years. I would, at best, expect Orton to duplicate his numbers from last year.

And let's not forget that a) it was the Patriots, not the system, b) McDaniels viewed Cassel as superior to Cutler, Orton is most certainly not

 

[Chase Stuart]

Never in the history of the NFL has there been an offense who was top 2 in yards, and not in the top half of scoring offenses.

The '69 49ers ranked 2nd in the NFL in yards and 10th (out of 16 teams) in yards. If you combine the AFL-NFL for that season, SF still ranked 2nd in yards and 18th in points. What happened the next season? Their QB had one of the greatest seasons in NFL history and won the MVP.The '96 Jags ranked 2nd in yards and were tied for 14th in points scored (out of 30 teams). They went 11-5 the next season.The '83 Chargers ranked 1st in yards but 13th in points scored; the '77 Bears were 3rd/14th; the Unitas Colts twice in the '60s had similar splits.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Orton will throw about 25 touchdowns!??!?!

Bro..in the last decade there have been 59 instances of QBs throwing 25 or more TDs, an average of just six per season.

And those 59 instances all came via just 25 different signal callers.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/h...c&display=p

While true, 92 QBs over that span have averaged 1.5 TD/game or more, which is pretty much what you're going to need to do that. Implicit in Lammey's projection is that Orton will play 16 games. I'd say the odds of that are unlikely, so I certainly wouldn't project Orton for 25 TDs. But if I knew he was going to stay healthy, I'd say he had a 30% shot at it. So not totally unreasonable.

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

Never in the history of the NFL has there been an offense who was top 2 in yards, and not in the top half of scoring offenses.

The '69 49ers ranked 2nd in the NFL in yards and 10th (out of 16 teams) in yards. If you combine the AFL-NFL for that season, SF still ranked 2nd in yards and 18th in points. What happened the next season? Their QB had one of the greatest seasons in NFL history and won the MVP.The '96 Jags ranked 2nd in yards and were tied for 14th in points scored (out of 30 teams). They went 11-5 the next season.The '83 Chargers ranked 1st in yards but 13th in points scored; the '77 Bears were 3rd/14th; the Unitas Colts twice in the '60s had similar splits.

how many of those teams switched the qb, rb, and head coach and didn't have their #1 wr for numerous games? just curious

 

[Chase Stuart]

[if Orton wins the job, and if he keeps hit, and if McDaniels is a good head coach, and if McCoy is a good OC, and if Marshall's mind is right and if Marshall is healthy, and if the RBBC works, I could see Orton with 20-22 TDs. Maybe.

Last year, Cassell threw 21 TD's in this system that he had 3 years to learn and everyone else has been in that system for at least a couple of years. I would, at best, expect Orton to duplicate his numbers from last year.

And let's not forget that a) it was the Patriots, not the system, b) McDaniels viewed Cassel as superior to Cutler, Orton is most certainly not

Agreed. I think it's more likely than not that Orton and the Broncos fall flat on their face this year.