SpaceCowboy
Footballguy
First of all, let's look at the schedule:
I've noted teams that there's no big advantage over, team's that there's a great advantage over, and possibilities in qb changes, injuries to players and situations that have high risk.
1 FAVRE (enough said), + 2 rookie offensive lineman starting in their first NFL game
2 Detroit (week two with a new offense)
3 Minnesota (week three with a new offense)
4 Seattle (no advantage)
5 Buffalo (could be a quarterback change that week, regardless will probably be ugly)
6 Arizona (if the o line for Arizona has not gelled by then, they could be in trouble. Also, Kurt Warner could be hurt by then and we may see a really raw Matt Leinart or just a really bad John Navarre) Also note Chicago's defense is probably still smarting from the whooping Edgerrin James put on them 2 years ago.
7 ALEX SMITH (enough said)
8 Miami (Need to see if Culpepper is recovered from his knee injury + horrible start to last season)
9 NY Giants (no advantage)
10 NYJ (2 rookie offensive lineman should be a little seasoned by then, but this offense is/will be in shambles)
11 New England (no advantage)
12 Minnesota (Is Tavaris Jackson getting looks by now? If not, no real advantage)
13 St. Louis (o-line is horrid, Bulger could very well be out by then)
14 Tampa Bay (no advantage)
15 Detroit (no advantage)
16 Green Bay (week 17 - no way to tell)
Taking week 17 out of the data, because I'm assuming that Chicago will have the division locked up, and probably the #2 seed as the NFC South and NFC East continue to pound each other, I have concurred that the Bears have numerous games, especially early in the season, where there defense could score great numbers. I believe the Bears scored 11 total defensive/special teams touchdowns last year. While that number will be tough to duplicate, also noted is the special teams unit should be MUCH better this year without Bobby Wade muffing two kicks a game. I'm not sure if Daniael Manning will be retuning kicks, but I'm sure that Deven Hester will be a factor in the returns game.
They also added special teams aces in Dante Wesley and Brendon Ayanbedejo, who will also help the return game and the kickoff and punt teams. Punter Brad Maynard lead the league in punts inside the 20 since he joined the league in 1997 with 242, and has 114 since he joined Da Bears in 2001.
I believe that this will lead to many offenses begins their drives back deep in their own zones, which will lead to punt returns for td's, int's for td's, and possible fumble recoveries for td's.
The defense is ball hawking in camp so far, and have a chip on their collective shoulders after the embarassing loss to Steve Smith. They have another year of experience under Lovie Smith, more speed, and most importantly, more depth. While there were times in games last year that the rotation seemed tired, this year they have added Mark Anderson, Dusty Davoracek, Danieal Manning, and Ricky Manning Jr.
MY ONLY WORRY: If you are in a league that puts heavy regard into points against, I'm sure that you're already thinking that Chicago is the way to go. I do not expect them to give up as few points as they did last year, mostly because they don't have the pressure of knowing that if they give up 14 points they will lose the game. I think they played a little more agressive towards the end of the season with Grossman in there, and it obviously showed in the Panthers playoff game. I think that that was an anomaly, due to injuries and of course poor game planning, and footing. This agressive playing will lead to more turnovers....
The proof is in the pudding. Look at your defensive stats in STL pre-Love, during Lovie, and post-Lovie. It's not even close...
In conclusion, I would not be shy about taking a defense early this year. But only if that defense is the Chicago Bears. I'm not saying 3rd or 4th round, but if you have a nice solid core group, maybe wait on that starting qb, and grab a defense that you know is going to get you some good points every week.
And if you're in need of a certain position, you can always trade them - after they play the 49ers.
Oh, and if Brett Favre continues at his pace that he's throwing in camp, we could have 11 interceptions after the first week
I've noted teams that there's no big advantage over, team's that there's a great advantage over, and possibilities in qb changes, injuries to players and situations that have high risk.
1 FAVRE (enough said), + 2 rookie offensive lineman starting in their first NFL game
2 Detroit (week two with a new offense)
3 Minnesota (week three with a new offense)
4 Seattle (no advantage)
5 Buffalo (could be a quarterback change that week, regardless will probably be ugly)
6 Arizona (if the o line for Arizona has not gelled by then, they could be in trouble. Also, Kurt Warner could be hurt by then and we may see a really raw Matt Leinart or just a really bad John Navarre) Also note Chicago's defense is probably still smarting from the whooping Edgerrin James put on them 2 years ago.
7 ALEX SMITH (enough said)
8 Miami (Need to see if Culpepper is recovered from his knee injury + horrible start to last season)
9 NY Giants (no advantage)
10 NYJ (2 rookie offensive lineman should be a little seasoned by then, but this offense is/will be in shambles)
11 New England (no advantage)
12 Minnesota (Is Tavaris Jackson getting looks by now? If not, no real advantage)
13 St. Louis (o-line is horrid, Bulger could very well be out by then)
14 Tampa Bay (no advantage)
15 Detroit (no advantage)
16 Green Bay (week 17 - no way to tell)
Taking week 17 out of the data, because I'm assuming that Chicago will have the division locked up, and probably the #2 seed as the NFC South and NFC East continue to pound each other, I have concurred that the Bears have numerous games, especially early in the season, where there defense could score great numbers. I believe the Bears scored 11 total defensive/special teams touchdowns last year. While that number will be tough to duplicate, also noted is the special teams unit should be MUCH better this year without Bobby Wade muffing two kicks a game. I'm not sure if Daniael Manning will be retuning kicks, but I'm sure that Deven Hester will be a factor in the returns game.
They also added special teams aces in Dante Wesley and Brendon Ayanbedejo, who will also help the return game and the kickoff and punt teams. Punter Brad Maynard lead the league in punts inside the 20 since he joined the league in 1997 with 242, and has 114 since he joined Da Bears in 2001.
I believe that this will lead to many offenses begins their drives back deep in their own zones, which will lead to punt returns for td's, int's for td's, and possible fumble recoveries for td's.
The defense is ball hawking in camp so far, and have a chip on their collective shoulders after the embarassing loss to Steve Smith. They have another year of experience under Lovie Smith, more speed, and most importantly, more depth. While there were times in games last year that the rotation seemed tired, this year they have added Mark Anderson, Dusty Davoracek, Danieal Manning, and Ricky Manning Jr.
MY ONLY WORRY: If you are in a league that puts heavy regard into points against, I'm sure that you're already thinking that Chicago is the way to go. I do not expect them to give up as few points as they did last year, mostly because they don't have the pressure of knowing that if they give up 14 points they will lose the game. I think they played a little more agressive towards the end of the season with Grossman in there, and it obviously showed in the Panthers playoff game. I think that that was an anomaly, due to injuries and of course poor game planning, and footing. This agressive playing will lead to more turnovers....
The proof is in the pudding. Look at your defensive stats in STL pre-Love, during Lovie, and post-Lovie. It's not even close...
In conclusion, I would not be shy about taking a defense early this year. But only if that defense is the Chicago Bears. I'm not saying 3rd or 4th round, but if you have a nice solid core group, maybe wait on that starting qb, and grab a defense that you know is going to get you some good points every week.
And if you're in need of a certain position, you can always trade them - after they play the 49ers.
Oh, and if Brett Favre continues at his pace that he's throwing in camp, we could have 11 interceptions after the first week
It might be a sin for me, but I'm going with them this season.
