The Big 12...2008 WR Tier 1 (1 Viewer)

[NFL-ons]

The scoring differential in the projections between the #5 and #12 WR is equal to the difference from the #13 to #15 RB. I generally am not at all concerned who I get at WR if I don't get one the the very early elite guys.

I think you are likely right David, but there is certainly a difference in the way CHad Johnson scores his 200 and the way someone like Colston or Edwards might score theirs...I just like a WR that every week puts up 10-20 over someone that scores 40 and then disappears for 5 weeks. The Big 12 will likly not finish the way they are being projected but I feel like there is at least 5-6 in here that are almost locks to put up very strong numbers. I think if you examine all these WR you will find a couple that you are going to like better than others.

I left out the more important part of WR strategy (at least in my case). I generally am pretty good at finding the guys that will approach the fantasy WR1 numbers that you are citing here . . . except I draft them 5-10 rounds later than the guys on your list. So while it might be nice to pick and chose and get the "tight guy" from your list, I don't worry too much if I don't get the one I one (or some years if I get any of them).I took a quick look at the WRs that rounded out my squads last year to see if I was prematurely patting myself on the back, but I think I did a decent job as Welker, Jennings, Bowe, Curtis, Walter, Crayton, and Holmes were all on at least two of them.IMO, each owner needs to know what he/she can do best and run with that. If you are good at waiting on TEs and still get good TE production, more power to you. I generaly have not had much success doing that, so I would be more inclined to take a TE early and hit on a WR late than vice versa.I have had teams with awesome WRs drafted early. I think one year I took Harrison and Owens at the turn and SSmith at the next turn (PPR league), eniding up with 3 Top 5 receivers. I still struggled because my RBs didn't pan out, my QBs never did much, and other than WR my scoring was terrible. To be clear, I am not married to any one strategy, but as I said earlier, if I can't get one of the elite WR I usually choose to wait.

I was reading the thread and came across this posting. I realize it does follow the subject, but it is an interesting current tangent. I follow a similar approach to drafting wrs. Last year I was very confident in Welker and Edwards, but I do not have the same confidence in any player(s) who could be ADP values or sleeper wrs this year.The players listed above definately performed significantly above their ADPs last year. It is also interesting that only one of them, Walters, really benefitted from an injury to another player on their team. I was hoping you would give us some insight into the players you are targeting this year.I have enjoyed this thread and your 2nd tier MOP and am anxiously awaiting your third. I hope you do continue with sleepers after you complete the tiers.

 

[BigRed]

From an auction draft angle, no freakin way will I own 2 "top" WRs. The expense isn't justified and I can likely find some real bargains in the mid/late rounds.

 

[Team Legacy]

I think the WR are actually fairly easy to figure out. It's really a matter of comfort level, where you are slotted in redrafts, and how many real studs you think you will need from your WR trio that you typically start in most leagues. Some people think it is much easier to wait on WR until rounds 4/5 and start drafting them for the next 3-4 rounds, others want to try and secure 2 from the Big 12…that's what I'm calling the top12 WR, more to follow.

My personal belief in drafting WR is to try and go with some proven commodity over the sizzle of a WR going into their 2nd, 3rd, or 4th year but has yet to prove a whole lot. As I look at the field this year, I do see some guys in the next tier after the Big 12 that could challenge and find their way into that top tier but nothing is for sure and actually you have to use a leap of faith for some of them which I think is a gross misstep for some of the FF owners out there.

I usually lead out with the RB thread but this year it seems I have a much clearer look at the WR position. We have a nice group at the top of guys in their 30s, some in their primes, and some that are still fairly young like Fitzgerald and Colston. I see no reason to make a wild prediction, or to tear apart the top tier all that much. There are some differences which I will highlight but a lot of the top tier is simply pick up a weapon and keep moving. Let's jump into this.

The "Big 12"

I think this is a great name for the top tier of WR…we could split it up even more but there are some fundamental traits that almost all of these WR share. 1st of all, most of them have had 100+ catch season on the resume, or a double digit TD season, perhaps multiple for many, and they have been at the top or near the top during their careers as well…so they have a track record. I will use David Dodd's projection rankings, these are not necessarily my own, although by and large they are pretty strong.

1. Randy Moss: (1.09) Last year he posts 98/1,493/23 TD…one of the best ever in FF or the NFL for that matter. Will he repeat his numbers? Probably not but would it really surprise owners if this guy had another 90 catches, close to 1,500 yds again, and about 15-20 TD, even if he isn't breaking the single season record again? You take Moss if you have the chance, probably after the 1st 4-5 RB are off the board, moss is in play as a safe pick. But there is not need to reach as one can do a lot of damage with some of the others.

2. Reggie Wayne: (2.05) Over the last 4 years his receptions have climbed steadily. His ypc hovers around 14.5-15.5 despite some rather average speed. He has posted double digit TD in 2of the last 4 years and came within 1 TD of doing it 3 out of 4. He is super consistent, and like Randy moss has one of the best QBs in the game throwing him the ball. I don't know that I see him as the#1 WR in FF but he has been top5 the past 2 seasons and he is the #1 option on a very high octane offense…a pretty safe pick that just can't be worse than about 80/1200/8 and that would be the floor assuming he is healthy. You might not win with just picking Reggie Wayne but you won't lose either.

3. Terrell Owens: (2.03) 83-1250-14 TD…that is what Owens has avg since arriving in Dallas. Forget about his long term prospects in Dyansty…this guy will win you a championship. He can score form anywhere, some could argue that Dallas might even be better on offense this season. Owens is #2 on my list right behind Mr Moss.

4. Larry Fitzgerald: (2.08) 100-1,400-10 TD is what he posted in '05 and '07…is he one of those every other year types? I doubt it but I do have some reservations about the guy and Arizona in general. I want Leinart to be the guy but he hasn't shown a lot when he has been on the field. How fast they would yank Leinart for Warner is anyone's guess but I would like to see some consistency form his QB position. I don't have a real good reason but Fitz has not made it on to my teams so far since he has been in the league. I always end up going with Wayne or Owens, or someone along those lines. Guy has finished 2 and 5th in the past 3 years and never finished worse than 30th his rookie year…guy is a stud.

5. Andre Johnson: (2.10) The guy had 100+ catches with David Carr zipping it to him 2 years ago. Last season AJ had 60/850/8 TD in basically 8-9 games…this is why so many people are high on him. If Schaub can stay on the field and they can connect like they did at the beginning of the season…lookout. Johnson has the skills to be top2 if he plays all season. There is a lot of risk here…OK maybe a lot is actually too much…but he isn't quite as safe as some others right around here. Even is he plays 12 games, those 12 games he will be a top10 WR almost every week.

6. Chad Johnson: (3.06) Avg 90-1,400-8 TD the past 5 years, ranked 3,9,4,4,and 6th last year. Why no love? Forget his attitude, contract, all that jazz, none of it means anything to FF owners, it doesn't. His biggest problems for owners is that he will score 30 one week and then he doesn't do much the next few weeks. He scored 30+ against Cleveland in week 2 last year, had a couple games where he scored over 10 points in non PPR leagues but not until week 12 where he has 103 yds and 3 TD does he do a whole lot during the season. I would rather have the guy that scores 15 points a week 5 weeks in a row than the guy that scores 40 and then puts up 6 the next 4 weeks…those weeks could kill me. Chad is not #6 on my list, he would be more towards the back of the Big 12.

7. Braylon Edwards: (2.06) Tore it up last year with 80-1289-16 TD…OK so he won't duplicate his TD total again but I bet he could easily hit the reception and yardage totals again. This guy has gotten better and better since his rookie year and I think he will remain in the top10-15 of WR for years to come. A definite stud and dynasty bonanza for owners. If you can live with his numbers but replace the 16 TD with 8-10, than I think you will be fine.

8. TJ Houshmandzadeh: (3.02) Career year with 112-1,143-12 TD…Wes Welker turned up a notch here. The Bengals are going to be allowing a lot of points again, their running game is a mystery right now, the one thing they can do is line up and throw the football. Palmer needs some time but they can create a lot of points for FF owners. I actually don't think TJ's all that talented and his ypc sort of leads some credence to my theory but you just cannot deny production. And to think you can have this guy on the turn and possibly be your WR2??? He will again be teamed with LT/ADP to form a pretty nasty 2 some, 3 some depending on the other WR you pair with him.

9. Steve Smith: (2.12) Had another down year last year but still had 87-1000-7 TD…I love this guy to rebound this year. Delhomme is back, but if he were to go down, Matt Moore doesn't look as bad this year as an option. Mush and Hackett were brought in to take some of the pressure off. Stewart joins DeAngelo to make for an exciting dup at RB, OL has been upgraded…what's not to like? I have him ranked higher than #9. To be able to get him on the turn in the 2/3…WOW!!!

10. Torry Holt: (3.09) He is absolutely overlooked. He finished 35th as a rookie and since then he has rankings of 7th, 8th, 15th, 2nd, 7th, 6th, 6th, and 13th last season as he logged 93 catches 1,189 and 7 TD. He has seen his avg slip to about 12.8-13.0 ypc over the last 3 years. Is he on the decline? Sure but he is safe to finish in the top15 for sure.

11. Marques Colston: (3.01) Went form 14th as a rookie to 8th last season. Went form 70 catches as a rookie to 98 last year…this guy is only going to get better. Plays on a high octane offense, is the WR1, nothing to not like about this guy. I have him ranked much higher than #11.

Can you imagine starting off with some combo of LT/ADP at RB, then on the turn in rounds 2/3 you get to choose between Steve Smith, Marques Colston, and TJ Housh…pick 2 please. Unfair!!!

12. Plaxico Burress: (3.10) Was on pace with Randy Moss last season for the 1st 5 or 6 weeks. He has posted back to back double digit TD seasons. That is extremely hard to achieve but it also means he is the red zone target and Eli has no problem delivering him the ball in those situations.

If I were to list my Big 12 from this list it would look something like this…

1. R.Moss

2. T.Owens

3. R.Wayne

4. S.Smith

5. M.Colston

6. B.Edwards

7. L.Fitzgerald

8. A.Johnson

9. TJ Housh

10. Chad Johnson

11. Plax Burress

12. Torry Holt

This might not seem like much of a difference. And I guess to some it's not but I definitely am starting to gravitate towards some of these WR over other ones in the same group.

So who do you like based on ADP, where you can get them…does this cast a spotlight on the draft spots…are some of them looking worse and worse?

First of all... The BIG 12 is a terrible name. Nothing more creative than that? The Dangerous Dozen, The Thundering Twelve, I dunno, but the Big 12 is kinda lame.Secondly, it is nearly BLASPHEMY to include Plaxico in this group, I mean we're talking ELITE right? Moss/Wayne tier. Even though he had a huge points season, 7 of 16 games Plax scored in SINGLE DIGITS. He had his QB healthy all year, sure he played thru pain, but I would have rather him NOT played at all and tried somebody else. Most leagues are H2H and PPR these days, and last year PLAX was a nightmare to count on. The point of this thread is to name the TOP ELITE TIER of WRs right, well t's just not possible to include him in the same breath as Reggie Wayne who had EXACTLY ZERO games in single digits. Plax is certainly in the next tier with Welker, Boldin, Marshall and others.

Good effort here as usual MOP, but I think it's HEAVEN'S ELEVEN this year.

 

[TaxMan]

I think the WR are actually fairly easy to figure out. It's really a matter of comfort level, where you are slotted in redrafts, and how many real studs you think you will need from your WR trio that you typically start in most leagues. Some people think it is much easier to wait on WR until rounds 4/5 and start drafting them for the next 3-4 rounds, others want to try and secure 2 from the Big 12…that's what I'm calling the top12 WR, more to follow.

My personal belief in drafting WR is to try and go with some proven commodity over the sizzle of a WR going into their 2nd, 3rd, or 4th year but has yet to prove a whole lot. As I look at the field this year, I do see some guys in the next tier after the Big 12 that could challenge and find their way into that top tier but nothing is for sure and actually you have to use a leap of faith for some of them which I think is a gross misstep for some of the FF owners out there.

I usually lead out with the RB thread but this year it seems I have a much clearer look at the WR position. We have a nice group at the top of guys in their 30s, some in their primes, and some that are still fairly young like Fitzgerald and Colston. I see no reason to make a wild prediction, or to tear apart the top tier all that much. There are some differences which I will highlight but a lot of the top tier is simply pick up a weapon and keep moving. Let's jump into this.

The "Big 12"

I think this is a great name for the top tier of WR…we could split it up even more but there are some fundamental traits that almost all of these WR share. 1st of all, most of them have had 100+ catch season on the resume, or a double digit TD season, perhaps multiple for many, and they have been at the top or near the top during their careers as well…so they have a track record. I will use David Dodd's projection rankings, these are not necessarily my own, although by and large they are pretty strong.

1. Randy Moss: (1.09) Last year he posts 98/1,493/23 TD…one of the best ever in FF or the NFL for that matter. Will he repeat his numbers? Probably not but would it really surprise owners if this guy had another 90 catches, close to 1,500 yds again, and about 15-20 TD, even if he isn't breaking the single season record again? You take Moss if you have the chance, probably after the 1st 4-5 RB are off the board, moss is in play as a safe pick. But there is not need to reach as one can do a lot of damage with some of the others.

2. Reggie Wayne: (2.05) Over the last 4 years his receptions have climbed steadily. His ypc hovers around 14.5-15.5 despite some rather average speed. He has posted double digit TD in 2of the last 4 years and came within 1 TD of doing it 3 out of 4. He is super consistent, and like Randy moss has one of the best QBs in the game throwing him the ball. I don't know that I see him as the#1 WR in FF but he has been top5 the past 2 seasons and he is the #1 option on a very high octane offense…a pretty safe pick that just can't be worse than about 80/1200/8 and that would be the floor assuming he is healthy. You might not win with just picking Reggie Wayne but you won't lose either.

3. Terrell Owens: (2.03) 83-1250-14 TD…that is what Owens has avg since arriving in Dallas. Forget about his long term prospects in Dyansty…this guy will win you a championship. He can score form anywhere, some could argue that Dallas might even be better on offense this season. Owens is #2 on my list right behind Mr Moss.

4. Larry Fitzgerald: (2.08) 100-1,400-10 TD is what he posted in '05 and '07…is he one of those every other year types? I doubt it but I do have some reservations about the guy and Arizona in general. I want Leinart to be the guy but he hasn't shown a lot when he has been on the field. How fast they would yank Leinart for Warner is anyone's guess but I would like to see some consistency form his QB position. I don't have a real good reason but Fitz has not made it on to my teams so far since he has been in the league. I always end up going with Wayne or Owens, or someone along those lines. Guy has finished 2 and 5th in the past 3 years and never finished worse than 30th his rookie year…guy is a stud.

5. Andre Johnson: (2.10) The guy had 100+ catches with David Carr zipping it to him 2 years ago. Last season AJ had 60/850/8 TD in basically 8-9 games…this is why so many people are high on him. If Schaub can stay on the field and they can connect like they did at the beginning of the season…lookout. Johnson has the skills to be top2 if he plays all season. There is a lot of risk here…OK maybe a lot is actually too much…but he isn't quite as safe as some others right around here. Even is he plays 12 games, those 12 games he will be a top10 WR almost every week.

6. Chad Johnson: (3.06) Avg 90-1,400-8 TD the past 5 years, ranked 3,9,4,4,and 6th last year. Why no love? Forget his attitude, contract, all that jazz, none of it means anything to FF owners, it doesn't. His biggest problems for owners is that he will score 30 one week and then he doesn't do much the next few weeks. He scored 30+ against Cleveland in week 2 last year, had a couple games where he scored over 10 points in non PPR leagues but not until week 12 where he has 103 yds and 3 TD does he do a whole lot during the season. I would rather have the guy that scores 15 points a week 5 weeks in a row than the guy that scores 40 and then puts up 6 the next 4 weeks…those weeks could kill me. Chad is not #6 on my list, he would be more towards the back of the Big 12.

7. Braylon Edwards: (2.06) Tore it up last year with 80-1289-16 TD…OK so he won't duplicate his TD total again but I bet he could easily hit the reception and yardage totals again. This guy has gotten better and better since his rookie year and I think he will remain in the top10-15 of WR for years to come. A definite stud and dynasty bonanza for owners. If you can live with his numbers but replace the 16 TD with 8-10, than I think you will be fine.

8. TJ Houshmandzadeh: (3.02) Career year with 112-1,143-12 TD…Wes Welker turned up a notch here. The Bengals are going to be allowing a lot of points again, their running game is a mystery right now, the one thing they can do is line up and throw the football. Palmer needs some time but they can create a lot of points for FF owners. I actually don't think TJ's all that talented and his ypc sort of leads some credence to my theory but you just cannot deny production. And to think you can have this guy on the turn and possibly be your WR2??? He will again be teamed with LT/ADP to form a pretty nasty 2 some, 3 some depending on the other WR you pair with him.

9. Steve Smith: (2.12) Had another down year last year but still had 87-1000-7 TD…I love this guy to rebound this year. Delhomme is back, but if he were to go down, Matt Moore doesn't look as bad this year as an option. Mush and Hackett were brought in to take some of the pressure off. Stewart joins DeAngelo to make for an exciting dup at RB, OL has been upgraded…what's not to like? I have him ranked higher than #9. To be able to get him on the turn in the 2/3…WOW!!!

10. Torry Holt: (3.09) He is absolutely overlooked. He finished 35th as a rookie and since then he has rankings of 7th, 8th, 15th, 2nd, 7th, 6th, 6th, and 13th last season as he logged 93 catches 1,189 and 7 TD. He has seen his avg slip to about 12.8-13.0 ypc over the last 3 years. Is he on the decline? Sure but he is safe to finish in the top15 for sure.

11. Marques Colston: (3.01) Went form 14th as a rookie to 8th last season. Went form 70 catches as a rookie to 98 last year…this guy is only going to get better. Plays on a high octane offense, is the WR1, nothing to not like about this guy. I have him ranked much higher than #11.

Can you imagine starting off with some combo of LT/ADP at RB, then on the turn in rounds 2/3 you get to choose between Steve Smith, Marques Colston, and TJ Housh…pick 2 please. Unfair!!!

12. Plaxico Burress: (3.10) Was on pace with Randy Moss last season for the 1st 5 or 6 weeks. He has posted back to back double digit TD seasons. That is extremely hard to achieve but it also means he is the red zone target and Eli has no problem delivering him the ball in those situations.

If I were to list my Big 12 from this list it would look something like this…

1. R.Moss

2. T.Owens

3. R.Wayne

4. S.Smith

5. M.Colston

6. B.Edwards

7. L.Fitzgerald

8. A.Johnson

9. TJ Housh

10. Chad Johnson

11. Plax Burress

12. Torry Holt

This might not seem like much of a difference. And I guess to some it's not but I definitely am starting to gravitate towards some of these WR over other ones in the same group.

So who do you like based on ADP, where you can get them…does this cast a spotlight on the draft spots…are some of them looking worse and worse?

First of all... The BIG 12 is a terrible name. Nothing more creative than that? The Dangerous Dozen, The Thundering Twelve, I dunno, but the Big 12 is kinda lame.Secondly, it is nearly BLASPHEMY to include Plaxico in this group, I mean we're talking ELITE right? Moss/Wayne tier. Even though he had a huge points season, 7 of 16 games Plax scored in SINGLE DIGITS. He had his QB healthy all year, sure he played thru pain, but I would have rather him NOT played at all and tried somebody else. Most leagues are H2H and PPR these days, and last year PLAX was a nightmare to count on. The point of this thread is to name the TOP ELITE TIER of WRs right, well t's just not possible to include him in the same breath as Reggie Wayne who had EXACTLY ZERO games in single digits. Plax is certainly in the next tier with Welker, Boldin, Marshall and others.

Good effort here as usual MOP, but I think it's HEAVEN'S ELEVEN this year.

I still think it's the BIG 12, just put Calvin Johnson instead of Plax.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

First of all... The BIG 12 is a terrible name. Nothing more creative than that? The Dangerous Dozen, The Thundering Twelve, I dunno, but the Big 12 is kinda lame.Secondly, it is nearly BLASPHEMY to include Plaxico in this group, I mean we're talking ELITE right? Moss/Wayne tier. Even though he had a huge points season, 7 of 16 games Plax scored in SINGLE DIGITS. He had his QB healthy all year, sure he played thru pain, but I would have rather him NOT played at all and tried somebody else. Most leagues are H2H and PPR these days, and last year PLAX was a nightmare to count on. The point of this thread is to name the TOP ELITE TIER of WRs right, well t's just not possible to include him in the same breath as Reggie Wayne who had EXACTLY ZERO games in single digits. Plax is certainly in the next tier with Welker, Boldin, Marshall and others.Good effort here as usual MOP, but I think it's HEAVEN'S ELEVEN this year.

Keep in mind that I am trying to mirror the projections and ADP of these players. Most of these guys will go in the 2nd and 3rd round...so we are talking about putting together a road map for the upcoming draft. The next tier I did was basically 13-24 and that was round 4-6th basically. I like the Big 12 because of the college reference. Thundering Twelve? Hmmmmm

 

[FUBAR]

First of all... The BIG 12 is a terrible name. Nothing more creative than that? The Dangerous Dozen, The Thundering Twelve, I dunno, but the Big 12 is kinda lame.Secondly, it is nearly BLASPHEMY to include Plaxico in this group, I mean we're talking ELITE right? Moss/Wayne tier. Even though he had a huge points season, 7 of 16 games Plax scored in SINGLE DIGITS. He had his QB healthy all year, sure he played thru pain, but I would have rather him NOT played at all and tried somebody else. Most leagues are H2H and PPR these days, and last year PLAX was a nightmare to count on. The point of this thread is to name the TOP ELITE TIER of WRs right, well t's just not possible to include him in the same breath as Reggie Wayne who had EXACTLY ZERO games in single digits. Plax is certainly in the next tier with Welker, Boldin, Marshall and others.Good effort here as usual MOP, but I think it's HEAVEN'S ELEVEN this year.

Keep in mind that I am trying to mirror the projections and ADP of these players. Most of these guys will go in the 2nd and 3rd round...so we are talking about putting together a road map for the upcoming draft. The next tier I did was basically 13-24 and that was round 4-6th basically. I like the Big 12 because of the college reference. Thundering Twelve? Hmmmmm

I still think you could go with the Big X, but include 11.

 

[kethnaab]

Randy Moss is in a class by himself. I don't expect him to repeat last season, but even if we see regression to the norm, his "norm" (i.e. averages outside of Oakland) is 90/1412/15. Yes, 23 is more than he's ever scored, but he has had 17+ on 3 separate occasions, 15+ on 4. Moss is the only one that will be able to outperform similar to a RB1/2.

TO and Wayne are in the next tier of what I consider "RB locks", i.e. WRs that will perform almost as well as RB2/3s and better in PPR than many RB1s.

No other WRs have any chance to do it consistently. Braylon won't hit 16, nor will he get close. He'll hit 12 tops (Which still makes him a WR stud). Andre Johnson has Moss-like potential, but does not have Moss-like consistency nor a NE-like QB. He has produced 100+ catches with a stud like David Carr throwing to him, but until last season, he never had any combination of YPC/TDs, and last season, he was great in 7 of his 9 games, but that still leaves 2 games where he was average and 7 where he was a big fat 0. As mentioned earlier, Smith is another one whose ADP doesn't match his production. 1 real season where he was insane, then several "solid" seasons, but hardly stud-like. The only guy who seems poised to truly put up "elite" WR #s is Colston. He put up 98/1200/11 in what amounts to 12 games, since Brees was beyond horrible his first 4 games last year and Colston is only going to get better.

I like Braylon. Alot. But aside from Moss, I don't see any of these guys as being more draftable than a solid RB2/low-RB1 like MBIII, Portis, etc. Even at the turn in a PPR league, I gotta get a solid RB1.

anyway, the WRs as I see it

1) Moss - the only one that will outperform any # of RB1s during any given season

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2) TO - moreso than Reggie Wayne. His jumping, speed and strength make him a deep threat and a red zone threat

3) Reggie Wayne - here because it's Peyton throwing to him.

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T4) Braylon Edwards, Marques Colston - I don't trust Braylon's QB situation enough, Colston has a legit shot at matching Wayne/TO moreso than anyone. i think Braylon regresses to the norm and ends up with similar catch/yardage #s, but with 3-5 less TDs. I think Colston breaks 100/1300/10 next season.

T6) Andre Johnson/Larry Fitzgerald - both also have near-Moss-like potential, but only in different situations. AJohn has to be healthy, and Fitz has to have a healthy Warner and a moderately healthy Boldin to get up that high. I just don't fully trust him with a healthy Leinart. With Warner in 05 and 07, Fitz is 100/1400. With Leinart in 06, he doesn't break 1000 yards (Granted, that was 13 games, but still)

8) Ocho - he is one of the few WRs that can win games by himself. Unfortunately, he does that 4 times a year, plays as a solid WR1/2 another 4 games a year, and snores the rest of the time. I take Ocho, but ONLY if I have a steady guy that I trust, i.e. Colston, Wayne, TO, etc. I need a guy at one slot that will produce 10 points consistently so I can have Ocho and his alternating 7-pt/30-pt games. However, he still puts up 90/1300 on a consistent basis and he rarely has games where he is below 5 points. Regardless, he is frustrating as hell and if he could spread his scoring out a bit (7 TDs in 3 games, 1 TD in the other 13 during 2007), he'd be up higher

9) the rest - Brandon Marshall, Steve Smith, Housh, Plax, Holt - these guys have "something" missing for me to even consider taking them ahead of a RB2. Marshall lacks sensibility. Tons of talent and a good situatoin, but he's a moron, and until he stops acting like a moron, I can't put him in the true top level. He has the potential if he can get his head on straight, but that's a big "if".

Steve Smith's extremely high ADP puzzles me. He is a known quantity, a guy that has performed consistently, aside from 1 season. One time, he was a fantasy stud. In 3 other seasons, he was remarkably consistent. 83-88 receptions, 7 or 8 TDs, 1000-1175 yards. Either he or Delhomme seem to miss games these last few years. The potential is there (witness 103/1563/12 in 05), but that seemed like one of those "everything coming together" seasons rather than a standard ceiling.

Housh simply isn't all that talented. If Ocho doesn't draw all the double-teams, Housh doesn't get the catches, plain and simple. He wasn't any better than Wes Welker last season, aside from some extra red zone looks, and that only happened because he didn't have a 6'4 red zone monster named Moss at the wideout to compete with.

Some of Plax's problem and Holt's problems are similar. Very questionable QB, age, and injury issues. Plax has all the talent in the world at his disposal and has finally grown up, but his inconsistency is more maddening than Ocho's. He scored in the first 6 games, went the next 4 without a score, had a good game, a cruddy game, a good game, fell apart for 2 games, then had a 2-TD game against NE. He may have won 2 games on his own, but he lost several others. 7 games < 5 points. In 2 of the games he scored, he STILL had under 10 points. Then a 20-point game and the 32-point onslaught in week 1.

Holt is obviously going downhill. His numbers suggest that. His numbers and situation also suggest that he will still be good for 1100ish yards and close to double-digit TDs.

I think those are the first 2 tiers. I understand the idea of having a 12-man tier, but I don't think the last 4 should be on the same tier as the first 8.

 

[Bri]

MOP,good postHow about age here? It seems we're at a point where a good chunk of the top 20 are older. Plax's not practicing due to ankle now this off-season's unhappy with contract or maybe that the sun's out-at some point its gotta bite him that he's not putting the time in, doesn't it? Also might not be this thread but if he's not practicing, Steve Smith is getting 1st team reps. Thoughts on that? Where he'd rank?I don't "follow" ranking Colston 11th. You did say he went from 14th to 8th, then real positive things- so it's actually a drop for him.

ignored? MOP? :sniff:

 

[Ministry of Pain]

MOP,good postHow about age here? It seems we're at a point where a good chunk of the top 20 are older. Plax's not practicing due to ankle now this off-season's unhappy with contract or maybe that the sun's out-at some point its gotta bite him that he's not putting the time in, doesn't it? Also might not be this thread but if he's not practicing, Steve Smith is getting 1st team reps. Thoughts on that? Where he'd rank?I don't "follow" ranking Colston 11th. You did say he went from 14th to 8th, then real positive things- so it's actually a drop for him.

ignored? MOP? :sniff:

The rankings in the OP are David Dodds or FBG...I rerank them at the end if you notice my friend. Thanks for the kind words as well.

 

[Duckboy]

If I were to list my Big 12 from this list it would look something like this…

1. R.Moss

2. T.Owens

3. R.Wayne

4. S.Smith

5. M.Colston

6. B.Edwards

7. L.Fitzgerald

8. A.Johnson

9. TJ Housh

10. Chad Johnson

11. Plax Burress

12. Torry Holt

This might not seem like much of a difference. And I guess to some it’s not but I definitely am starting to gravitate towards some of these WR over other ones in the same group.

So who do you like based on ADP, where you can get them…does this cast a spotlight on the draft spots…are some of them looking worse and worse?

Forgot I hadn't commented in this one (did in 13-24) so thanks for the bump and to MOP for the topic (no mercy in FIX for you though, bro).I'd rank them in ppr redraft:

1. R.Wayne

2. T.Owens

3. R.Moss - these 3 are almost a tossup

4. S.Smith

5. L.Fitzgerald

6. Chad Johnson

7. M.Colston - some uncertainty but can win you games week to week

8. A.Johnson

9. TJ Housh

10. B.Edwards

11. Torry Holt

12. Plax Burress (would actually bump him down a tier and put Boldin up one)

Given ADP for these, if I'm drafting early, I'm hoping to land a combo of Smith and CJ/Colston at 2/3; mid, whichever of the top 3 falls (hopefully) and one of the 8-11; late, one of the top 3 and hope for Holt who seems to drop.

 

[Bri]

(I know it's top 12 but...)well how do you feel about the age of the top 30 or so WRs? Who is going to be too old and slow down or start to slow down in 2008? I'm starting to feel like I've had Moss, Harrison, and Owens in my top 5 for a real long time and Holt isn't too far behind em'. Mason was too old last year but was a gem for PPR. There's a handful of them and just about as I blow off the age as it hasn't been a factor, I remember being burned at some point in the past for doing just that so....thoughts on the age of some of the WRs? Bruce, Toomer...there's quite a few.

I'd be curious as to your thoughts on Toomer, Plax, and Smith, oh and Sinorice(if any). As I mentioned above, all that practice time has to help Smith.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

(I know it's top 12 but...)well how do you feel about the age of the top 30 or so WRs? Who is going to be too old and slow down or start to slow down in 2008? I'm starting to feel like I've had Moss, Harrison, and Owens in my top 5 for a real long time and Holt isn't too far behind em'. Mason was too old last year but was a gem for PPR. There's a handful of them and just about as I blow off the age as it hasn't been a factor, I remember being burned at some point in the past for doing just that so....thoughts on the age of some of the WRs? Bruce, Toomer...there's quite a few.I'd be curious as to your thoughts on Toomer, Plax, and Smith, oh and Sinorice(if any). As I mentioned above, all that practice time has to help Smith.

30 something WR that are not in the top3...not named Moss and Owens, those other guys get shoved out to pasture way too soon. Driver, Galloway, Ward, Mason, there are tons of productive WR that don't stretch the field everytime but are workhorse types that always grind out their 80+ catches and reward their owners. Toomer is still going to play, likely post about 750 yds and 5-6 TD along the way, Plax is a little preoccupied with his contract at the moment, and Smith is going to come along but I don't see him "breaking out" this season.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

If I were to list my Big 12 from this list it would look something like this…

1. R.Moss

2. T.Owens

3. R.Wayne

4. S.Smith

5. M.Colston

6. B.Edwards

7. L.Fitzgerald

8. A.Johnson

9. TJ Housh

10. Chad Johnson

11. Plax Burress

12. Torry Holt

This might not seem like much of a difference. And I guess to some it’s not but I definitely am starting to gravitate towards some of these WR over other ones in the same group.

So who do you like based on ADP, where you can get them…does this cast a spotlight on the draft spots…are some of them looking worse and worse?

Forgot I hadn't commented in this one (did in 13-24) so thanks for the bump and to MOP for the topic (no mercy in FIX for you though, bro).I'd rank them in ppr redraft:

1. R.Wayne

2. T.Owens

3. R.Moss - these 3 are almost a tossup

4. S.Smith

5. L.Fitzgerald

6. Chad Johnson

7. M.Colston - some uncertainty but can win you games week to week

8. A.Johnson

9. TJ Housh

10. B.Edwards

11. Torry Holt

12. Plax Burress (would actually bump him down a tier and put Boldin up one)

Given ADP for these, if I'm drafting early, I'm hoping to land a combo of Smith and CJ/Colston at 2/3; mid, whichever of the top 3 falls (hopefully) and one of the 8-11; late, one of the top 3 and hope for Holt who seems to drop.

hey Ducky whats the uncertainty with Colston? to me he's a safer play than S.Smith due to QB consistency alone. I'd take him before Chad as well.

 

[moose162]

Is this based on basic scoring? In ppr you have to have several options ahead of Plax.

When I clicked on the thread, I asked myself who the top 12 would be, the first 11 were fairly clear and obvious. Plax probably deserves to be #12, but there's an apparent drop off IMO from 11 to 12-20ish. I might drop Housh down to #11 and see a drop off ther as well, so maybe it should be the Big X + 2?

FBG/Dodds has Boldin, Holmes, Cal Johnson, Marshall, Welker, Bowe, Roy, Roddy, Jennings, Curtis, Galloway, Crotchery as the next 12 WR...they all have some serious questions but I think we all are most comfortable with Welker...I would next be OK with a Galloway as my WR2/3...but I dont see anyone better than Plax at the moment.

I don't know about Welker. To me Patriots receivers are almost as bad as Denver backs. Moss being the exception, because well, he's Randy Moss..

 

[David Yudkin]

Is this based on basic scoring? In ppr you have to have several options ahead of Plax.

When I clicked on the thread, I asked myself who the top 12 would be, the first 11 were fairly clear and obvious. Plax probably deserves to be #12, but there's an apparent drop off IMO from 11 to 12-20ish. I might drop Housh down to #11 and see a drop off ther as well, so maybe it should be the Big X + 2?

FBG/Dodds has Boldin, Holmes, Cal Johnson, Marshall, Welker, Bowe, Roy, Roddy, Jennings, Curtis, Galloway, Crotchery as the next 12 WR...they all have some serious questions but I think we all are most comfortable with Welker...I would next be OK with a Galloway as my WR2/3...but I dont see anyone better than Plax at the moment.

I don't know about Welker. To me Patriots receivers are almost as bad as Denver backs. Moss being the exception, because well, he's Randy Moss..

I see no similarities AT ALL with regard to NE receivers. Please explain.

 

[moose162]

Is this based on basic scoring? In ppr you have to have several options ahead of Plax.

When I clicked on the thread, I asked myself who the top 12 would be, the first 11 were fairly clear and obvious. Plax probably deserves to be #12, but there's an apparent drop off IMO from 11 to 12-20ish. I might drop Housh down to #11 and see a drop off ther as well, so maybe it should be the Big X + 2?

FBG/Dodds has Boldin, Holmes, Cal Johnson, Marshall, Welker, Bowe, Roy, Roddy, Jennings, Curtis, Galloway, Crotchery as the next 12 WR...they all have some serious questions but I think we all are most comfortable with Welker...I would next be OK with a Galloway as my WR2/3...but I dont see anyone better than Plax at the moment.

I don't know about Welker. To me Patriots receivers are almost as bad as Denver backs. Moss being the exception, because well, he's Randy Moss..

I see no similarities AT ALL with regard to NE receivers. Please explain.

They're all so unpredictable since Belichick can put anyone in there and Brady will make it work. David Givens and Jabar Gaffney are names just as obscure as Olandis Gary and Reuben Droughns. Plus New England can win in so many ways that its unfair to assume Welker will play a significant role again this year.

 

[menobrown]

Marques Colston: (3.01) Went form 14th as a rookie to 8th last season. Went form 70 catches as a rookie to 98 last year…this guy is only going to get better. Plays on a high octane offense, is the WR1, nothing to not like about this guy. I have him ranked much higher than #11.

Can you imagine starting off with some combo of LT/ADP at RB, then on the turn in rounds 2/3 you get to choose between Steve Smith, Marques Colston, and TJ Housh…pick 2 please. Unfair!!!

Just started an online WCOFF satellite league from the 1 spot yesterday. Started with LT/Chad Johnson/Colston. I'm pretty happy with that.

I'm in that league with you and I think you got off to an outstanding start. I thought you had an outstanding draft all the way through for that matter.

 

[menobrown]

10. Torry Holt: (3.09) He is absolutely overlooked. He finished 35th as a rookie and since then he has rankings of 7th, 8th, 15th, 2nd, 7th, 6th, 6th, and 13th last season as he logged 93 catches 1,189 and 7 TD. He has seen his avg slip to about 12.8-13.0 ypc over the last 3 years. Is he on the decline? Sure but he is safe to finish in the top15 for sure.

I think Holt is the best value here. He put up essentially 1,200-7 despite being in arguably a worse situation than any big-time WR in the league last year(Steve Smith included.)The yardage and catches seem like locks and may increase with Bruce gone(unless McMichael breaks out or Avery is a fast learner) and the TD's will go up just from having a running threat and a competent QB. Why can't Holt have 100 catches 1,300 yards and 10 TD's? This guy is going in the 4th round in most drafts as a WR2.

People want to say he's on the decline but really how many guys would have been better in that situation last year?

I'm going to go the other way here. In your last sentence you say "people say he is on the decline". They say this because it's true. His total fantasy points have declined 5 straight years. His fantasy points per game have declined 4 out of the last 5 years. He is 32 and playing with a chronic knee injury that he is doing a great job of gutting out but unless he reverses a trend that is 5 years in the making he is going to disappoint.

 

[cstruk]

If I were to list my Big 12 from this list it would look something like this…

1. R.Moss

2. T.Owens

3. R.Wayne

4. S.Smith

5. M.Colston

6. B.Edwards

7. L.Fitzgerald

8. A.Johnson

9. TJ Housh

10. Chad Johnson

11. Plax Burress

12. Torry Holt

This might not seem like much of a difference. And I guess to some it’s not but I definitely am starting to gravitate towards some of these WR over other ones in the same group.

So who do you like based on ADP, where you can get them…does this cast a spotlight on the draft spots…are some of them looking worse and worse?

Thank you for your efforts as this has been one of the more interesting threads lately.I am having a bit of a problem ranking TO that high but this has to do with drafting Harrison in the second round last year as that was the "safe pick." So I am a little bit leery of picking a 35 year old WR. As a result, I have them ranked

1. Moss

2. Wayne

3. AJohnson (assuming he looks healthy in preseason)

4. Colston

5. TO

6. Edwards

7. Fitz

8. TJ Housh

9. S. Smith

10. Holt

11. C. Johnson

12. A. Boldin (much better value than Fitz)

In one of my leasgues, I have the 12/13 picks and plan on going WR/WR. Granted this is a ppr league with a 1RB/3WR/1FLEX starting lineup requirement as I like playing in leagues where drafting RBs is not the only option to winning the league. At the moment, I am thinking Wayne and AJ or Colston(hoping to trade down) in the 1st and 2nd rounds with Graham as my RB1 at 3.12. 4.01 would be Boldin, Brees or an RB although I am sure that I can get another RB I am comfortable with later such as Lendale White or Forte or a couple of others. I would really like to get Boldin at 4.01 and get McNabb and and Lendale White or Cothchery at the 5.12/6.01 turn and have a lineup of:

McNabb

E. Graham

Lendale White/Cothchery

R. Wayne

A. Johnson

A. Boldin

If my RBs don't work out, I am much better about findng a RB on the waiver wire due to the numerous injuries every year at the RB spot than I am picking up a stud WR.

Granted, in this league I only have to play 1RB, but I would take Moss 4th (maybe 5th) as I think that only LT, S. Jackson and Westbrook will outscore Moss in a ppr league. A. Peterson may and Addai is questionable at best. Granted with the only 1RB starting requirement, picking a RB is not a no-brainer in the 1st round as I see Moss scoring more than all of the RBs other than the top 3 that I have listed so if I was making that decision I could always draft Moss and go 1RB and 4WR.

Thanks again for an entertaining thread!

 

[David Yudkin]

Is this based on basic scoring? In ppr you have to have several options ahead of Plax.

When I clicked on the thread, I asked myself who the top 12 would be, the first 11 were fairly clear and obvious. Plax probably deserves to be #12, but there's an apparent drop off IMO from 11 to 12-20ish. I might drop Housh down to #11 and see a drop off ther as well, so maybe it should be the Big X + 2?

FBG/Dodds has Boldin, Holmes, Cal Johnson, Marshall, Welker, Bowe, Roy, Roddy, Jennings, Curtis, Galloway, Crotchery as the next 12 WR...they all have some serious questions but I think we all are most comfortable with Welker...I would next be OK with a Galloway as my WR2/3...but I dont see anyone better than Plax at the moment.

I don't know about Welker. To me Patriots receivers are almost as bad as Denver backs. Moss being the exception, because well, he's Randy Moss..

I see no similarities AT ALL with regard to NE receivers. Please explain.

They're all so unpredictable since Belichick can put anyone in there and Brady will make it work. David Givens and Jabar Gaffney are names just as obscure as Olandis Gary and Reuben Droughns. Plus New England can win in so many ways that its unfair to assume Welker will play a significant role again this year.

I'm not sure I agree to any of this. First there was Troy Brown and practically no one else. Then there was Branch and Givens for 3-4 years. Then there was no one. Last year there was Moss and Welker. Brown had one solid year, but up until last year NE receivers were fantasy after thoughts for the most part.The reason why they were unpredictable (fantasy wise) for 7 years is that they didn't have anyone exceedingly good to play at WR. Now they do. Moss and Welker were very consistent last year.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Hey guys,

I am getting a lot of PMs for this stuff, and I am moving for the next few days...gonna be MIA for awhile. If you do a search, I also did 13-24, and 25-36 according to FBG projections, just hit search and you can find all 3. I'm really glad you folks are enjoying these threads, very positive posts, PMs, and feedback.

Mucho Gracias Amigos