The big three Fantasy Players this year (1 Viewer)

[ramsfan]

Hello all,

Every year, there are a clear top "few" players who are consensus picks at the top.

This year, it is clearly LJ, SA, and LT. Looking at Dodd's projections, the dropoff to the next player (4th) is significant.

I also feel the 4-XX picks are pretty tightly packed.

Just wondering if anyone has paid attention to this over the years, and does anyone feel this is the biggest dropoff in recent years?

I am wondering if the teams with the top 3 picks will have a HUGE advantage this year, or if this is normal FF stuff.

 

[Thorpe]

Do you mean biggest dropoff after 3 picks, or biggest dropoff after a few picks? It used to Faulk, Edge, and then everyone else.

 

[reg]

I am wondering if the teams with the top 3 picks will have a HUGE advantage this year, or if this is normal FF stuff.

Pretty normal.

 

[jerseys finest]

same thing... different year/players

there always seems to be a top few players, then a relative drop off.. its never as drastic as its assumed to be in the offseason

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Pretty normal.

 

[ffchamp1]

Hello all,

Every year, there are a clear top "few" players who are consensus picks at the top.

This year, it is clearly LJ, SA, and LT. Looking at Dodd's projections, the dropoff to the next player (4th) is significant.

I also feel the 4-XX picks are pretty tightly packed.

Just wondering if anyone has paid attention to this over the years, and does anyone feel this is the biggest dropoff in recent years?

I am wondering if the teams with the top 3 picks will have a HUGE advantage this year, or if this is normal FF stuff.

I will be in the minority on this but I feel the drop between 1-12 is the closest it has been in years. The three that most tout as the dominant backs, all come with big questions for me.

LT- I do not believe that Rivers will be able to move the chains with the same results as Brees did.

LJ, Herm Edwards, is not **** Vermiel and the offense will be a huge letdown across the board

SA, got the fat contract and if history proves true, he will tail off. That being said, I would take him #1 because of what he has done and the offense he runs in.

Tom

 

[cws3030]

in redrafts this is the year to have the 3rd pick.

 

[fruity pebbles]

I like Portis and think he'll be better than atleast one of the so called big 3 this year.

 

[AhrnCityPahnder]

I like Portis and think he'll be better than atleast one of the so called big 3 this year.

Enough to take him above any of those three?

 

[joffer]

looking at my projections so far the largest point drop comes after #1 - LJ

 

[mad sweeney]

I like Portis and think he'll be better than atleast one of the so called big 3 this year.

I've heard that every year since he went to WAS. Didn't buy it then, don't buy it now. LJ seems like the big thing based on last year but the new HC drops him a tad. But he did get the rushing title with CMart so not too much. Otherwise those top 3 are a plateau of their own, but at least one of them will NOT perofrm to that level. It MIGHT be Portis that jumps in there, but not enough of a chance that I'd pick him over any of those 3. And there's just as much a chance it's someone other than Portis that makes the jump this year.

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

looking at my projections so far the largest point drop comes after #1 - LJ

ditto

 

[AhrnCityPahnder]

I like Portis and think he'll be better than atleast one of the so called big 3 this year.

I've heard that every year since he went to WAS. Didn't buy it then, don't buy it now. LJ seems like the big thing based on last year but the new HC drops him a tad. But he did get the rushing title with CMart so not too much. Otherwise those top 3 are a plateau of their own, but at least one of them will NOT perofrm to that level. It MIGHT be Portis that jumps in there, but not enough of a chance that I'd pick him over any of those 3. And there's just as much a chance it's someone other than Portis that makes the jump this year.

I agree. I'm seeing a LOT of Portis love going on round these parts and I'm not feeling it either. I'm pretty sure I wouldn't take him before the 8 or 9 spot this year.

 

[Assani Fisher]

Since I have Clinton Portis as #3 and LT2 as #4, I guess I would say 'no' to your question.

 

[jurb26]

Since I have Clinton Portis as #3 and LT2 as #4, I guess I would say 'no' to your question.

The answer is absolutly no. I actually have far less confidence in this years "top tier" than any I can remember in a while. Hell, I don't even think it's a top 3. It should be a top 4.

 

[jurb26]

I like Portis and think he'll be better than atleast one of the so called big 3 this year.

I've heard that every year since he went to WAS. Didn't buy it then, don't buy it now. LJ seems like the big thing based on last year but the new HC drops him a tad. But he did get the rushing title with CMart so not too much. Otherwise those top 3 are a plateau of their own, but at least one of them will NOT perofrm to that level. It MIGHT be Portis that jumps in there, but not enough of a chance that I'd pick him over any of those 3. And there's just as much a chance it's someone other than Portis that makes the jump this year.

No you haven't, nobody was making this arguement last year. The great thing about POrtis is that none of us will have to pick him over these 3 guys, so it's a pointless question. Much like SA and LT last year.

 

[The Jerk]

LJ, Herm Edwards, is not **** Vermiel and the offense will be a huge letdown across the board

I keep seeing people posting this same general idea, but the numbers don't bear this out.During the 2004 season, with Herm Edwards as his head coach, Curtis Martin led the league in rushing -- at age 31, no less -- as well as having:

the most rushing yards in his career

the most rushing attempts in his career

the highest yards per carry in his career

the most total yards from scrimmage in his career

the most total touches in his career (tied his previous high)

Martin's 14 total TDs in 2004 is the most he has had as a Jet and was his best since his first two pro seasons as a Patriot in 1996-97.

Now there may be a dropoff in KC offensive production this year, but it will probably come from injuries and/or age, especially of the offensive line. If Herm Edwards stays true to his track record, it won't be because of his philosophy.

 

[reg]

LJ, Herm Edwards, is not **** Vermiel and the offense will be a huge letdown across the board

I keep seeing people posting this same general idea, but the numbers don't bear this out.During the 2004 season, with Herm Edwards as his head coach, Curtis Martin led the league in rushing -- at age 31, no less -- as well as having:

the most rushing yards in his career

the most rushing attempts in his career

the highest yards per carry in his career

the most total yards from scrimmage in his career

the most total touches in his career (tied his previous high)

Martin's 14 total TDs in 2004 is the most he has had as a Jet and was his best since his first two pro seasons as a Patriot in 1996-97.

Now there may be a dropoff in KC offensive production this year, but it will probably come from injuries and/or age, especially of the offensive line. If Herm Edwards stays true to his track record, it won't be because of his philosophy.

I don't think Herm even knows what his track record is.Jets rushing philosophy under Herm:

2001 - 445 rushing attempts (4th highest)

2002 - 400 rushing attempts (11th lowest)

2003 - 409 rushing attempts (4th lowest)

2004 - 527 rushing attempts (3rd highest)

2005 - 384 rushing attempts (2nd lowest)

Yes he does feed the ball to one back, which favors LJ, but who knows how many times they will run the ball this year?

 

[Buckna]

Since I have Clinton Portis as #3 and LT2 as #4, I guess I would say 'no' to your question.

The answer is absolutly no. I actually have far less confidence in this years "top tier" than any I can remember in a while. Hell, I don't even think it's a top 3. It should be a top 4.

I agree here. I actually have it as a tier of 4 but all 4 have major question marks in my mind and are less of a lock to repeat this year than ever. If you are picking early it will all come down to personal preference. I have LJ as my #1 right now, but that may change come late August/early September.

 

[Wadsworth]

Since I have Clinton Portis as #3 and LT2 as #4, I guess I would say 'no' to your question.

But would you take Portis at 3 if LT2 was there? I see guys all the time make projections that are bold, but come draft day they make the "safe" pick.I'm sure you know what you are doing and are likely the acception to this scenerio. But, with most people it's easy to make the projection, but hard to pull the trigger when it comes time.

 

[Bankerguy]

I don't see the gap from Tier 1 to Tier 2 as bigger (points wise) this year than in year past. What I do see is the size of Tier 2 being bigger (Number of players) than I can remember in many years.

It's a great year to have a later pick in your draft. I think hitting on your round 2-4 picks will be absolutely critical. Can't draft a busts, or you will be done...imo. Unless there is some waiver wire darling this year or a significant injury to a big RB.

 

[Rounders]

I don't see the gap from Tier 1 to Tier 2 as bigger (points wise) this year than in year past. What I do see is the size of Tier 2 being bigger (Number of players) than I can remember in many years.

It's a great year to have a later pick in your draft. I think hitting on your round 2-4 picks will be absolutely critical. Can't draft a busts, or you will be done...imo. Unless there is some waiver wire darling this year or a significant injury to a big RB.

you had to go and say it didn't you.

 

[KCC]

same thing... different year/players

there always seems to be a top few players, then a relative drop off.. its never as drastic as its assumed to be in the offseason

This is a great point. When the mags start coming out and touting the "Big 3" (or 4 for those drinking the Portis koolaid ) evryone will be over-valuing those first three picks even more than now. Anyone ending up in the top 3 draft slots should take the time to shop their pick around.

 

[John Mamula]

I am wondering if the teams with the top 3 picks will have a HUGE advantage this year

no

 

[mad sweeney]

I like Portis and think he'll be better than atleast one of the so called big 3 this year.

I've heard that every year since he went to WAS. Didn't buy it then, don't buy it now. LJ seems like the big thing based on last year but the new HC drops him a tad. But he did get the rushing title with CMart so not too much. Otherwise those top 3 are a plateau of their own, but at least one of them will NOT perofrm to that level. It MIGHT be Portis that jumps in there, but not enough of a chance that I'd pick him over any of those 3. And there's just as much a chance it's someone other than Portis that makes the jump this year.

No you haven't, nobody was making this arguement last year. The great thing about POrtis is that none of us will have to pick him over these 3 guys, so it's a pointless question. Much like SA and LT last year.

As a matter of fact I have. All alst 2 offseasons this board was peppered with Portis (and McAllister) love, how he's better than SA, how Gibbs' smashmouth will propel him to the top, how it was Portis not Shanahan. Only difference this year is that Deuce isn't in the mix anymore. Obviously LJ wasn't in the mix but CP was pimped by many over Priest, Edge, SA, though few put him above LT. Go back and look, you'll see mad CP love touting him as a top 3 back...

 

[jurb26]

I like Portis and think he'll be better than atleast one of the so called big 3 this year.

I've heard that every year since he went to WAS. Didn't buy it then, don't buy it now. LJ seems like the big thing based on last year but the new HC drops him a tad. But he did get the rushing title with CMart so not too much. Otherwise those top 3 are a plateau of their own, but at least one of them will NOT perofrm to that level. It MIGHT be Portis that jumps in there, but not enough of a chance that I'd pick him over any of those 3. And there's just as much a chance it's someone other than Portis that makes the jump this year.

No you haven't, nobody was making this arguement last year. The great thing about POrtis is that none of us will have to pick him over these 3 guys, so it's a pointless question. Much like SA and LT last year.

As a matter of fact I have. All alst 2 offseasons this board was peppered with Portis (and McAllister) love, how he's better than SA, how Gibbs' smashmouth will propel him to the top, how it was Portis not Shanahan. Only difference this year is that Deuce isn't in the mix anymore. Obviously LJ wasn't in the mix but CP was pimped by many over Priest, Edge, SA, though few put him above LT. Go back and look, you'll see mad CP love touting him as a top 3 back...

Hardly anyone was pimping Portis as a top tier RB last year and most had him as a 2nd round RB. I think your memory is way off. I drafted Portis in the 2nd round and 3rd round in leagues last year. If IIRC, his ADP was round 1.12 or so.

 

[Q-Bert]

looking at my projections so far the largest point drop comes after #1 - LJ

Me too.

 

[Mr. Mojo]

I totally agree with the dropoff after the first 3.

I'm really hoping I have one of the first 3 picks in this year's draft.

 

[Keg]

I like Portis and think he'll be better than atleast one of the so called big 3 this year.

I've heard that every year since he went to WAS. Didn't buy it then, don't buy it now. LJ seems like the big thing based on last year but the new HC drops him a tad. But he did get the rushing title with CMart so not too much. Otherwise those top 3 are a plateau of their own, but at least one of them will NOT perofrm to that level. It MIGHT be Portis that jumps in there, but not enough of a chance that I'd pick him over any of those 3. And there's just as much a chance it's someone other than Portis that makes the jump this year.

No you haven't, nobody was making this arguement last year. The great thing about POrtis is that none of us will have to pick him over these 3 guys, so it's a pointless question. Much like SA and LT last year.

As a matter of fact I have. All alst 2 offseasons this board was peppered with Portis (and McAllister) love, how he's better than SA, how Gibbs' smashmouth will propel him to the top, how it was Portis not Shanahan. Only difference this year is that Deuce isn't in the mix anymore. Obviously LJ wasn't in the mix but CP was pimped by many over Priest, Edge, SA, though few put him above LT. Go back and look, you'll see mad CP love touting him as a top 3 back...

Hardly anyone was pimping Portis as a top tier RB last year and most had him as a 2nd round RB. I think your memory is way off. I drafted Portis in the 2nd round and 3rd round in leagues last year. If IIRC, his ADP was round 1.12 or so.

i got portis at 2.2(14th overall) last yr

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

LJ, Herm Edwards, is not **** Vermiel and the offense will be a huge letdown across the board

I keep seeing people posting this same general idea, but the numbers don't bear this out.During the 2004 season, with Herm Edwards as his head coach, Curtis Martin led the league in rushing -- at age 31, no less -- as well as having:

the most rushing yards in his career

the most rushing attempts in his career

the highest yards per carry in his career

the most total yards from scrimmage in his career

the most total touches in his career (tied his previous high)

Martin's 14 total TDs in 2004 is the most he has had as a Jet and was his best since his first two pro seasons as a Patriot in 1996-97.

Now there may be a dropoff in KC offensive production this year, but it will probably come from injuries and/or age, especially of the offensive line. If Herm Edwards stays true to his track record, it won't be because of his philosophy.

Also, the Chiefs will run the same offensive system as they have for the past five years. The new offensive coordinator has been the Chiefs' offensive line coach for the past nine seasons, so they will definitely keep the same blocking schemes.The one difference is that Herm Edwards has said that they'll run more to protect a lead when they're ahead. I don't see that as a negative for LJ.

(Which is not to say he'll play up to his stats from the second half of 2005. That'd be nearly impossible.)

 

[dotman]

There is only a top 2 this year, LT and LJ...Shaun is in for a letdown season.