The case for Jake Plummer (1 Viewer)

[moleculo]

Jake Plummer is currently being drafted as the 14th QB off the boards, going in mid round 9 in 12 team leagues per antsports.com. I think that this represents tremendous value, as Plummer has an excellent chance to finish near the top 5.

Consider:

2004 –threw for 4089 yards, 27 TDs, and 20 ints – good enough for 5th in the league.

2005 – threw for 3366 yards, 18 TD’s, and 7 pics – good enough for 11th in the league.

What was the difference between 2004 and 2005?

Looking at some numbers: in 2004, Denver had 534 rushing attempts and 521 passing attempts – almost a 51/49 split. In 2005, Denver had 542 rushing attempts, and only 465 passing attempts – almost a 54/46 split. In other words, in terms of play selection, Denver was much more conservative in 2005 than they were in 2004, but this should be obvious by the extreme reduction in interceptions. This run/pass ratio, by the way, is the most skewed towards the run that Denver has had in the past 10 years.

I believe that Shanahan looked to slow things down in 2005 and win via the run. This was a conscious effort and a deliberate play. And, it was very successful until the AFCCG, where they found themselves up against a 3-4 defense and the Broncos weren’t versatile enough to work around it.

I believe that this off season, Shanahan has made a conscious effort to bring the team back closer to a 50/50 split. Denver must become more balanced to beat the Pittsburgh’s and the New England’s of the league. This intent can be seen in the off-season moves – five draft picks went to address the passing game specifically – Jay Cutler, Javon Walker, Tony Scheffler, Brandon Marshall, and Dominick Hixon. No RB’s were drafted, no lineman until late, no defensive players until late. It is clear to me that the Broncos play selection in 2006 should be closer to 2004 to 2005.

In the pre-season so far:

Vs Det: 33 passes, 32 rushes

Vs Ten: 20 passes, 45 rushes – discount this, as Broncos were well ahead early.

Vs Hou: 31 passes, 31 rushes.

So my theory of balanced play selection seems to hold true, with the exception of the Ten game (this must be considered an anomaly, unless you think that Denver will be winning 28-3 by halftime in most games).

Jake has been durable. The only game he did not start was the SD game, after all playoff implications had been sewn up. He should not be considered an injury risk, and Cutler has no realistic shot at unseating Jake. Shanahan has no history of yanking QB’s once the season is under way.

Jake has looked good in camp, per most of Lammey’s reports. His targets have all looked good, and are healthy (minus Marshall and Hixon).

I see no reason for Jake to be drafted as low as he currently is.

Presently, I am projecting Plummer at 491 for 297, 3700 yards, 23 TD’s, 13 ints. These numbers should place Plummer somewhere in the 5-10 range, in the neighborhood of McNabb, Bulger, Eli, etc.

 

[Gr00vus]

You've just about split the difference in your projections between 2004 and 2005 stats. That seems about right to me, although I always err on the side of conservatism, so I'm a bit lower than you.

I figure 3500 yds 22 tds 15 ints is realistic, not far from your projections. Could be better if Walker is all the way back and Sheffler and Marshall can contribute their first year. I think there'll be more pressure on Jake to win games than before as the running game doesn't seem to be quite as threatening as it has in the past - could mean bigger numbers but could also mean more ints.

He's been slipping far in drafts I've been in - mid teens and later every time. I don't understand it - people like Culpepper better than him for instance.

 

[diesel7982]

Good posting.

There was some discussion of this back in June.

Plummer should likely be a top 10 QB this year, but hasnt been drafted anything close to that.

 

[None_More_Black]

I am targeting j.plummer in all my drafts. Even last year I got him as qb 14 after a great season. I think this has something to do with people getting burned by him in the past as he was the andre johnson of the late 90s. I don't think the denver run game will be as good as last year and walker should add another passing threat. I also like that his int total has gotten much better(at least last year) as he has aged as my main league has -2 for interceptions. I think 3400-3800, 22-25 tds are very probable for him. The rush yards and occasional rushing td is a nice bonus as well. Sheffler(sp?) looks pretty good too.

 

[intrinsic]

ive been targetting Delhomme if he slips beyond 7 or so and definitely Jake as the 2 QBs that will far out perform their ADP, thanks for the stats to back up the feeling i have.

 

[diesel7982]

In the pre-season so far:

Vs Det: 33 passes, 32 rushes

Vs Ten: 20 passes, 45 rushes – discount this, as Broncos were well ahead early.

Vs Hou: 31 passes, 31 rushes.

I dont think this should be discounted however. Denver is the top team in the league over the past decade at getting a lead in the first quarter. Denver is a very good team that will blow several teams out, and Plummer will throw 20-22 passes in these games.

 

[Grigs Allmoon]

Jake Plummer is currently being drafted as the 14th QB off the boards, going in mid round 9 in 12 team leagues per antsports.com. I think that this represents tremendous value, as Plummer has an excellent chance to finish near the top 5.

I couldn't agree more...I got him VERY late as my starter after getting a stockpile of RBs, and WRs. I'm very happy with him as my starter.And in real life, I can't understand why he gets no love. Last year he was a legit MVP candidate, and people seem like it's just a matter of time before Cutler comes in.

 

[RatMan]

I'm targeting Plummer as well, but the ADPs I've been looking at have him going in approximately the 9th-10th round.

 

[kaso]

I have targetted Plummer in both my leagues this year.

Both league score the same, 1 pt for 20 yards throwing... 6 pt TDs...

In the first league (drafted on May 29th), I selected him in the 8th round at spot 8.03. He was the 10th QB off the boards at the time.

In the second league (drated on August 27th), I selected him in the 8th round again at the 8.04 spot. He was the 12th QB off the board at that time.

I am happy with the value that I will be getting from him at that spot.

 

[Grigs Allmoon]

I'm targeting Plummer as well, but the ADPs I've been looking at have him going in approximately the 9th-10th round.

And that is a STEAL...

 

[moleculo]

You've just about split the difference in your projections between 2004 and 2005 stats. That seems about right to me, although I always err on the side of conservatism, so I'm a bit lower than you.I figure 3500 yds 22 tds 15 ints is realistic, not far from your projections. Could be better if Walker is all the way back and Sheffler and Marshall can contribute their first year. I think there'll be more pressure on Jake to win games than before as the running game doesn't seem to be quite as threatening as it has in the past - could mean bigger numbers but could also mean more ints.He's been slipping far in drafts I've been in - mid teens and later every time. I don't understand it - people like Culpepper better than him for instance.

I use a 3 year average as the baseline for my projections, and go from there. Makes sense that I basically split the difference.I seriously do not understand why he has slipped as low either.

 

[rockbottom895]

Absolutlely excellent post. I have been a die hard Broncos fan all my life, and what you say about Shanahan is correct. He will try to balance out the rushing and passing, therefore giving Plummer more chance to strive. The only question I have for you, is Jay Cutler. If Plummer goes into the season, listening to the doubts and rumors, there is no chance that he will perform to his highest potential. In order for him to be one of those Top 10 Quarterback's, he would need to be relaxed. In my opinion, I believe that the only way he will reach thoes numbers, is if Shanahan reinsures his starting job in Denver.

 

[moleculo]

Absolutlely excellent post. I have been a die hard Broncos fan all my life, and what you say about Shanahan is correct. He will try to balance out the rushing and passing, therefore giving Plummer more chance to strive. The only question I have for you, is Jay Cutler. If Plummer goes into the season, listening to the doubts and rumors, there is no chance that he will perform to his highest potential. In order for him to be one of those Top 10 Quarterback's, he would need to be relaxed. In my opinion, I believe that the only way he will reach thoes numbers, is if Shanahan reinsures his starting job in Denver.

In 1999, Bubby Brister was the starting QB all of pre-season, and Griese got the nod after the last pre-season game, and remained the starter for several years. This is the only time Shannahan has ever benched/replaced a QB EVER. (to be fair, Shanahans only QB's were Elway, Young, Griese, and Plummer). Regardless, the Denver O is difficult to pick up, and as bright as Cutler is and as quickly as he is learning it, Shanahan will not give Cutler the start. Not in 2006, and I expect an open competition in 2007.If Plummer does not play in pre-season game 4 this weekend, that sohuld be all the assurance Plummer needs.

 

[Gr00vus]

If Jake's healthy and the season is still any way in question, there's no way Cutler starts a meaningful game this year.

Jake's got nothing to worry about - this Cutler challenging for the job this year pub is all gossip and message board tom-foolery. There's no basis in reality for it at all.

 

[RatMan]

I'm targeting Plummer as well, but the ADPs I've been looking at have him going in approximately the 9th-10th round.

And that is a STEAL...

I agree. Plummer in the 9th round will be very good value. I mentioned it only because I was suprised to hear others saying he's slipping as far as the mid teens.I will probably pull the trigger in the 9th round, depending on how the draft is going.

 

[Brewdude]

This has been surprising me as well. I don't see why people think he'll do worse than his last two years.

I grabbed him in two of my three 12-team leagues.

7.11 -- 16th QB off the board

8.08 -- 11th QB taken

10.11 -- 16th QB taken

I think he'll finish the season ranked higher than where he was drafted in all three drafts.

 

[rascal]

I took Bulger in the 7th (8th QB taken) and Jake in the 10th (14Qb taken). I'm happy with it. I would have taken Brooks the following round but with limited roster space I didn't want 3 QB spots. Plus Brooks scares me.

 

[SSOG]

I believe that this off season, Shanahan has made a conscious effort to bring the team back closer to a 50/50 split. Denver must become more balanced to beat the Pittsburgh’s and the New England’s of the league. This intent can be seen in the off-season moves – five draft picks went to address the passing game specifically – Jay Cutler, Javon Walker, Tony Scheffler, Brandon Marshall, and Dominick Hixon. No RB’s were drafted, no lineman until late, no defensive players until late. It is clear to me that the Broncos play selection in 2006 should be closer to 2004 to 2005.

In the pre-season so far:

Vs Det: 33 passes, 32 rushes

Vs Ten: 20 passes, 45 rushes – discount this, as Broncos were well ahead early.

Vs Hou: 31 passes, 31 rushes.

So my theory of balanced play selection seems to hold true, with the exception of the Ten game (this must be considered an anomaly, unless you think that Denver will be winning 28-3 by halftime in most games).

Jake has been durable. The only game he did not start was the SD game, after all playoff implications had been sewn up. He should not be considered an injury risk, and Cutler has no realistic shot at unseating Jake. Shanahan has no history of yanking QB’s once the season is under way.

Jake has looked good in camp, per most of Lammey’s reports. His targets have all looked good, and are healthy (minus Marshall and Hixon).

I see no reason for Jake to be drafted as low as he currently is.

Presently, I am projecting Plummer at 491 for 297, 3700 yards, 23 TD’s, 13 ints. These numbers should place Plummer somewhere in the 5-10 range, in the neighborhood of McNabb, Bulger, Eli, etc.

First off, I don't like the fact that you swept the Tennessee game under the rug. It happened, and it PROVES that Denver's perfectly willing to turtle up when they have the lead. The reason that Denver ran so much last season was because they LED so much last season.To wit:

Denver Blowouts (i.e. 10+ point lead by halftime)-

18 passes vs. 37 runs against KC

26 passes vs. 44 runs against Jacksonville

24 passes vs. 34 runs against New England

35 passes vs. 36 runs against Philly

22 passes vs. 38 runs against Oakland

26 passes vs. 47 runs against NYJets

29 passes vs. 40 runs against Oakland

Total = 180 passes to 276 runs (39.5% passes)

All other Wins (game was within 7 points until the end of the 3rd quarter)

37 passes vs. 26 runs against SD

25 passes vs. 28 runs against Washington

24 passes vs. 20 runs against Dallas

33 passes vs. 32 runs against Baltimore

37 passes vs. 37 runs against Buffalo

26 passes vs. 32 runs against New England (playoffs)

Close losses (losses by 7 points or fewer)-

29 passes vs. 33 runs against NYGiants

29 passes vs. 29 runs against Kansas City

Total of all close games (wins and losses) = 240 passes to 237 runs (50.3% passes)

Big losses (losses by 7+ points)-

48 passes vs. 20 runs against Miami

30 passes vs. 21 runs against Pittsburgh (playoffs)

Total = 78 passes to 41 runs (65.5% passes)

Not included: Week 17 against San Diego, when Denver rested starters and BVP played half of the game.

Congratulations, you've just demonstrated that Shanahan hasn't changed his playcalling tendencies in the slightest little bit this season compared to last.

Now, if you want to demonstrate that Denver will have a more balanced run/pass ratio, you have to show that Denver will be worse than last year. Personally, my opinion is that Denver has IMPROVED from last year, and that last year's schedule was BRUTAL (hardest in the league according to opponant's average adjusted winning percentage). I could easily see Denver taking part in just as many blowouts this year as last.

 

[SSOG]

For what it's worth, I do think that Plummer's the QB steal of the year this season, but I think you're taking exactly the WRONG tact to argue that.

I would make the arguement as follows:

Denver rushed for 25 TDs last season. This is the most since Terrell Davis made defenses look like Pop-Warner squads in 1998 (Denver racked up 26 rushing TDs that season). Realistically, that's going to come back more in line with the average numbers.

Add to this Javon Walker, who got 9 TDs on 41 catches in 2003 and 12 TDs in 2004 (so he's obviously a good red-zone target). Add to this Tony Scheffler, who has the chance to become the first receiving TE used in the red zone since Sharpe left town. The result is that Plummer has a new glut of passing options in the red zone. That's bound to help his TD numbers.

Final point for consideration: pro-rate Plummer's 2003 numbers, and he finishes 5th in the league that year. In 2004, he finished 5th in the league. In 2005, he finished 11th. Personally, that 11th place finish is looking like more of an aberration than the 5th place finish in 2004.

I don't know if Denver's run/pass ratio will change or remain the same- I think in large part that's going to be determined by whether Denver has the lead or not, and since Denver is historically the best team in the league at jumping to an early lead, I think there's going to be a good chance we'll see a lot more runs this season. I just expect Plummer to be a lot more productive with the passes he DOES get this season.

 

[Bizkiteer]

J. Plummer is to QB's what W. Dunn is to RB's, always undervalued. Surprisingly does what he needs to do week in and week out, but you can't get a sniff for him tradewise in FF.

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

It's those years in Arizona that people can't get past.

Fine by me.

 

[moleculo]

First off, I don't like the fact that you swept the Tennessee game under the rug. It happened, and it PROVES that Denver's perfectly willing to turtle up when they have the lead. The reason that Denver ran so much last season was because they LED so much last season.

true. They will run more often when they have the lead. While I have no doubts that Denver will be a better team than last year, however that does not always translate into a better record. There will be close games, there will be losses.

To witenver Blowouts (i.e. 10+ point lead by halftime)-18 passes vs. 37 runs against KC26 passes vs. 44 runs against Jacksonville24 passes vs. 34 runs against New England35 passes vs. 36 runs against Philly22 passes vs. 38 runs against Oakland26 passes vs. 47 runs against NYJets29 passes vs. 40 runs against OaklandTotal = 180 passes to 276 runs (39.5% passes)All other Wins (game was within 7 points until the end of the 3rd quarter)37 passes vs. 26 runs against SD25 passes vs. 28 runs against Washington24 passes vs. 20 runs against Dallas33 passes vs. 32 runs against Baltimore37 passes vs. 37 runs against Buffalo26 passes vs. 32 runs against New England (playoffs)Close losses (losses by 7 points or fewer)-29 passes vs. 33 runs against NYGiants29 passes vs. 29 runs against Kansas CityTotal of all close games (wins and losses) = 240 passes to 237 runs (50.3% passes)Big losses (losses by 7+ points)-48 passes vs. 20 runs against Miami30 passes vs. 21 runs against Pittsburgh (playoffs)Total = 78 passes to 41 runs (65.5% passes)

so you are telling me that Denver only ran more than they did vs Tenn once last year? I think it's safe to assume that >45 rushes = anomaly. (ok, fine. make it 40 rushes and you are still talking about 3 games...)

Congratulations, you've just demonstrated that Shanahan hasn't changed his play calling tendencies in the slightest little bit this season compared to last.Now, if you want to demonstrate that Denver will have a more balanced run/pass ratio, you have to show that Denver will be worse than last year. Personally, my opinion is that Denver has IMPROVED from last year, and that last year's schedule was BRUTAL (hardest in the league according to opponent’s average adjusted winning percentage). I could easily see Denver taking part in just as many blowouts this year as last.

no I don't. When the Denver offense was at it's best and easily had the game in the bag by halftime ALOT - I'm talking about the 1998 SB team, that had a 12 game willing streak - they had a 52/48 run/pass ratio. In 1997, another high powered SB team, the ratio was nearly 50/50. This offense clicks the best when it is balanced. The pass opens up the run, and vice versa. Again, the run/pass ratio of 2005 was the most lopsided towards the run that Shanahan has ever had.Again, I am basing my assumption on a (slight) shift in offensive philosophy based on personnel moves aimed directly at improving the passing offense. The pre-season evidence is too small to prove my theory, but it does not disprove it either. Pre-season trends were presented as FYI type of info and should not be relied on anyhow.

For what it's worth, I do think that Plummer's the QB steal of the year this season, but I think you're taking exactly the WRONG tact to argue that.I would make the arguement as followsenver rushed for 25 TDs last season. This is the most since Terrell Davis made defenses look like Pop-Warner squads in 1998 (Denver racked up 26 rushing TDs that season). Realistically, that's going to come back more in line with the average numbers.Add to this Javon Walker, who got 9 TDs on 41 catches in 2003 and 12 TDs in 2004 (so he's obviously a good red-zone target). Add to this Tony Scheffler, who has the chance to become the first receiving TE used in the red zone since Sharpe left town. The result is that Plummer has a new glut of passing options in the red zone. That's bound to help his TD numbers.Final point for consideration: pro-rate Plummer's 2003 numbers, and he finishes 5th in the league that year. In 2004, he finished 5th in the league. In 2005, he finished 11th. Personally, that 11th place finish is looking like more of an aberration than the 5th place finish in 2004.I don't know if Denver's run/pass ratio will change or remain the same- I think in large part that's going to be determined by whether Denver has the lead or not, and since Denver is historically the best team in the league at jumping to an early lead, I think there's going to be a good chance we'll see a lot more runs this season. I just expect Plummer to be a lot more productive with the passes he DOES get this season.

also all good arguements.

 

[njxbean]

I think the bottom line is, plummer either plays very well, or cutler comes in. I think plummer steps it up!

 

[[icon]]

I think the bottom line is, plummer either plays very well, or cutler comes in.

What makes you think this?Seriously... interested your logic on why a playoff contender would hand over the keys to an unproven n00b.... it's not going to happen unless Jake REALLY REALLY stinks up the joint and puts the Broncos out of playoff contention early (which won't happen). I don't think Plummer needs to play "very well"... I think he just has to play a step about very bad.

 

[mr. furley]

got Plummer in the 9th round of my 12-team draft

 

[njxbean]

' date='Aug 31 2006, 09:32 AM' post='5426017']

I think the bottom line is, plummer either plays very well, or cutler comes in.

What makes you think this?Seriously... interested your logic on why a playoff contender would hand over the keys to an unproven n00b.... it's not going to happen unless Jake REALLY REALLY stinks up the joint and puts the Broncos out of playoff contention early (which won't happen). I don't think Plummer needs to play "very well"... I think he just has to play a step about very bad.

that fact that denver and shannie have man love for culter. couple that with the fact that shannie is a mad man! and the fact that he wasnt thrilled with plummer last year even though he had a decent season.

 

[moleculo]

' date='Aug 31 2006, 09:32 AM' post='5426017']

I think the bottom line is, plummer either plays very well, or cutler comes in.

What makes you think this?Seriously... interested your logic on why a playoff contender would hand over the keys to an unproven n00b.... it's not going to happen unless Jake REALLY REALLY stinks up the joint and puts the Broncos out of playoff contention early (which won't happen). I don't think Plummer needs to play "very well"... I think he just has to play a step about very bad.

that fact that denver and shannie have man love for culter. couple that with the fact that shannie is a mad man! and the fact that he wasnt thrilled with plummer last year even though he had a decent season.

I have no idea where you are getting any of this from.

 

[[icon]]

' date='Aug 31 2006, 09:32 AM' post='5426017']

I think the bottom line is, plummer either plays very well, or cutler comes in.

What makes you think this?Seriously... interested your logic on why a playoff contender would hand over the keys to an unproven n00b.... it's not going to happen unless Jake REALLY REALLY stinks up the joint and puts the Broncos out of playoff contention early (which won't happen). I don't think Plummer needs to play "very well"... I think he just has to play a step about very bad.

that fact that denver and shannie have man love for culter. couple that with the fact that shannie is a mad man! and the fact that he wasnt thrilled with plummer last year even though he had a decent season.

You've told me nothing here. So shanahan likes Cutler... does that mean he's going to tank his playoff chances by giving the keys to a rookie? Hell no. Denver is an astounding 32-11 when he starts. Who's better? NE (Brady) and Indy (Peyton)... nobody else. Some Quotes:"Jake is our quarterback," Broncos linebacker Al Wilson said. "He led us to the AFC Championship Game last year, and we're going to ride his back. That's the bottom line. We believe in Jake, and we believe he can take us where we want to be. So there is no quarterback controversy"--Why did Denver jump up to take Cutler with the 11th pick of the draft ... especially after Plummer played so well last year. The perception at the time was that coach Mike Shanahan, frustrated by the loss in the AFC Championship Game, decided he'd gone as far as he could with Plummer, and that if he were to return to a Super Bowl he'd have to make a change at quarterback."It's totally untrue," Shanahan said. "I thought Jay Cutler was the best quarterback in the draft, and to get him with that pick -- the 11th pick -- was something we couldn't pass up. You want as much depth at the quarterback position as you can have."

 

[Brasco]

First off, I don't like the fact that you swept the Tennessee game under the rug. It happened, and it PROVES that Denver's perfectly willing to turtle up when they have the lead. The reason that Denver ran so much last season was because they LED so much last season.To witenver Blowouts (i.e. 10+ point lead by halftime)-18 passes vs. 37 runs against KC26 passes vs. 44 runs against Jacksonville24 passes vs. 34 runs against New England35 passes vs. 36 runs against Philly22 passes vs. 38 runs against Oakland26 passes vs. 47 runs against NYJets29 passes vs. 40 runs against OaklandTotal = 180 passes to 276 runs (39.5% passes)All other Wins (game was within 7 points until the end of the 3rd quarter)37 passes vs. 26 runs against SD25 passes vs. 28 runs against Washington24 passes vs. 20 runs against Dallas33 passes vs. 32 runs against Baltimore37 passes vs. 37 runs against Buffalo26 passes vs. 32 runs against New England (playoffs)Close losses (losses by 7 points or fewer)-29 passes vs. 33 runs against NYGiants29 passes vs. 29 runs against Kansas CityTotal of all close games (wins and losses) = 240 passes to 237 runs (50.3% passes)Big losses (losses by 7+ points)-48 passes vs. 20 runs against Miami30 passes vs. 21 runs against Pittsburgh (playoffs)Total = 78 passes to 41 runs (65.5% passes)Not included: Week 17 against San Diego, when Denver rested starters and BVP played half of the game.Congratulations, you've just demonstrated that Shanahan hasn't changed his playcalling tendencies in the slightest little bit this season compared to last.Now, if you want to demonstrate that Denver will have a more balanced run/pass ratio, you have to show that Denver will be worse than last year. Personally, my opinion is that Denver has IMPROVED from last year, and that last year's schedule was BRUTAL (hardest in the league according to opponant's average adjusted winning percentage). I could easily see Denver taking part in just as many blowouts this year as last.

Good stuff SSOG! However, put me in the camp that believes that Denver's defense is going to be worse this season. Everything came together for Denver last season. They seemingly led every game for most of the game. They had an amazing TO ratio of like +20 or so. Of which there was a rather inordinate amount of fumbles recovered (which tend to be flukier then INTs). This led to big leads and low pressure on Plummer and the D, not to mention tons of running. I just don't see that repeating. Denver still can't pressure the QB on defense (low amount of sacks last season), and they lost Pryce in the offseason (big loss, as he was the only D-linemen on their team that ever warranted double teams). So the sacks aren't going to get better. Defensively, Denver was forced to blitz almost every down to put any pressure on the QB. I don't see an improved D-line, so I'm not sure how they think this will change any (obviously blitzing all the time is risky). Chances are the turnover ratio will not be +20 again. So basically, I don't see Denver playing with the lead nearly as much this season. Which probably equates to more passes. So long story short, yeah, Plummer should put up better raw stats then last season and will be a nice value pick!

 

[WisWolvrns]

and for the cutler pick, how often does Denver get a chance to pick in the top half of the NFL draft??

they have been a solid team for a long time and typically are picking in the later half of the draft every season. So getting the opportunity to trade up and grab who they thought was a franchise QB was a coupe on draft day.

Even if cutler doesn't start till 2008, its still a huge pick. Since in all probability, Denver will not have an early pick in 2007 or 2008 and the Plummer would be getting older and needing a replacement and without cutler this season in the fold, who would Denver have to start?

How many other NFL teams have gone from playoff contention to a death spiral of revolving QBs after their franchise QB retires? In the NFL, an above average QB can make or break your season.

 

[redman]

Why is everyone surprised by Plummer's ADP? Doesn't this happen every year? Without checking I don't think there's been a year in the last 5 where his ADP was above where he ended the year, and that's only gotten more true since he arrived in Denver.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

I was the last one in my 12-team $$$ league to draft a QB this year - took Plummer at 8.5 after the first team took their backup and I got nervous about a possible QB run (which didn't come). Plummer was the 13th QB off the board. Picked up Vick at 10.5 (QB18**) and Kitna at 14.5 (QB 24) as insurance. Just to give you an idea of where these guys might be going.

**Our league gives 1 pt/50 yards passing and 1 pt/25 rushing for QBs, with all TDs 6, so Vick is somewhat de-valued compared to a standard scoring league.

 

[rascal]

First off, I don't like the fact that you swept the Tennessee game under the rug. It happened, and it PROVES that Denver's perfectly willing to turtle up when they have the lead. The reason that Denver ran so much last season was because they LED so much last season.

true. They will run more often when they have the lead. While I have no doubts that Denver will be a better team than last year, however that does not always translate into a better record. There will be close games, there will be losses.

To witenver Blowouts (i.e. 10+ point lead by halftime)-18 passes vs. 37 runs against KC26 passes vs. 44 runs against Jacksonville24 passes vs. 34 runs against New England35 passes vs. 36 runs against Philly22 passes vs. 38 runs against Oakland26 passes vs. 47 runs against NYJets29 passes vs. 40 runs against OaklandTotal = 180 passes to 276 runs (39.5% passes)All other Wins (game was within 7 points until the end of the 3rd quarter)37 passes vs. 26 runs against SD25 passes vs. 28 runs against Washington24 passes vs. 20 runs against Dallas33 passes vs. 32 runs against Baltimore37 passes vs. 37 runs against Buffalo26 passes vs. 32 runs against New England (playoffs)Close losses (losses by 7 points or fewer)-29 passes vs. 33 runs against NYGiants29 passes vs. 29 runs against Kansas CityTotal of all close games (wins and losses) = 240 passes to 237 runs (50.3% passes)Big losses (losses by 7+ points)-48 passes vs. 20 runs against Miami30 passes vs. 21 runs against Pittsburgh (playoffs)Total = 78 passes to 41 runs (65.5% passes)

so you are telling me that Denver only ran more than they did vs Tenn once last year? I think it's safe to assume that >45 rushes = anomaly. (ok, fine. make it 40 rushes and you are still talking about 3 games...)

Congratulations, you've just demonstrated that Shanahan hasn't changed his play calling tendencies in the slightest little bit this season compared to last.Now, if you want to demonstrate that Denver will have a more balanced run/pass ratio, you have to show that Denver will be worse than last year. Personally, my opinion is that Denver has IMPROVED from last year, and that last year's schedule was BRUTAL (hardest in the league according to opponent’s average adjusted winning percentage). I could easily see Denver taking part in just as many blowouts this year as last.

no I don't. When the Denver offense was at it's best and easily had the game in the bag by halftime ALOT - I'm talking about the 1998 SB team, that had a 12 game willing streak - they had a 52/48 run/pass ratio. In 1997, another high powered SB team, the ratio was nearly 50/50. This offense clicks the best when it is balanced. The pass opens up the run, and vice versa. Again, the run/pass ratio of 2005 was the most lopsided towards the run that Shanahan has ever had.Again, I am basing my assumption on a (slight) shift in offensive philosophy based on personnel moves aimed directly at improving the passing offense. The pre-season evidence is too small to prove my theory, but it does not disprove it either. Pre-season trends were presented as FYI type of info and should not be relied on anyhow.

For what it's worth, I do think that Plummer's the QB steal of the year this season, but I think you're taking exactly the WRONG tact to argue that.I would make the arguement as followsenver rushed for 25 TDs last season. This is the most since Terrell Davis made defenses look like Pop-Warner squads in 1998 (Denver racked up 26 rushing TDs that season). Realistically, that's going to come back more in line with the average numbers.Add to this Javon Walker, who got 9 TDs on 41 catches in 2003 and 12 TDs in 2004 (so he's obviously a good red-zone target). Add to this Tony Scheffler, who has the chance to become the first receiving TE used in the red zone since Sharpe left town. The result is that Plummer has a new glut of passing options in the red zone. That's bound to help his TD numbers.Final point for consideration: pro-rate Plummer's 2003 numbers, and he finishes 5th in the league that year. In 2004, he finished 5th in the league. In 2005, he finished 11th. Personally, that 11th place finish is looking like more of an aberration than the 5th place finish in 2004.I don't know if Denver's run/pass ratio will change or remain the same- I think in large part that's going to be determined by whether Denver has the lead or not, and since Denver is historically the best team in the league at jumping to an early lead, I think there's going to be a good chance we'll see a lot more runs this season. I just expect Plummer to be a lot more productive with the passes he DOES get this season.

also all good arguements.

You can throw out the 1998 and 1997 data because Jake Plummer is not John Elway and Shanny doesn't trust Jake like that. The past several years Shanny has shown time and time again, that when he gets a lead he goes into a cowher type shell mode. If it's a blowout Plummer will not get that many passes. The only game last year that went against that grain was against Philly when they made an impressive comeback and Shanny went back on the offensive.

 

[Buckychudd]

I was the last one in my 12-team $$$ league to draft a QB this year - took Plummer at 8.5 after the first team took their backup and I got nervous about a possible QB run (which didn't come). Plummer was the 13th QB off the board. Picked up Vick at 10.5 (QB18**) and Kitna at 14.5 (QB 24) as insurance. Just to give you an idea of where these guys might be going.**Our league gives 1 pt/50 yards passing and 1 pt/25 rushing for QBs, with all TDs 6, so Vick is somewhat de-valued compared to a standard scoring league.

In my two redraft leagues I've picked up Jake as my QB1 with my eight and ninth round picks....it was as late as I felt comfortable taking him.

 

[piston pete griffin]

Got Plummer as a backup to McNabb about 15 QBs in. I'm quite happy.

 

[Brewdude]

' date='Aug 31 2006, 09:32 AM' post='5426017']

I think the bottom line is, plummer either plays very well, or cutler comes in.

What makes you think this?Seriously... interested your logic on why a playoff contender would hand over the keys to an unproven n00b.... it's not going to happen unless Jake REALLY REALLY stinks up the joint and puts the Broncos out of playoff contention early (which won't happen). I don't think Plummer needs to play "very well"... I think he just has to play a step about very bad.

that fact that denver and shannie have man love for culter. couple that with the fact that shannie is a mad man! and the fact that he wasnt thrilled with plummer last year even though he had a decent season.

Dude, you need to provide a link or something. I've not heard him say anything bad about Plummer.The Broncos were 13-3 last year and Plummer's play was a big part of that. He didn't do well in the Championship game, but neither did the defense...it was a team debacle.Shanny has said Plummer is the man. Cutler is doing well, but there's no way he takes the reins from Plummer this year, barring injury. Maybe next year, but I think Jake is still the starter next year too. 2008 is Cutler's year. It's a perfect situation for all involved, IMO. Cutler wants to play, but he also realizes he has a lot to learn. We'll see him in some mop-up duty this year, but not because of Jake's play.Plummer is a great value play in your draft!

 

[2112]

I'm targeting Plummer as well, but the ADPs I've been looking at have him going in approximately the 9th-10th round.

And that is a STEAL...

Yup - got Plummer at 11.10, the 15th QB taken in a 12-teamer. (but I'm classically a late-round QB drafter)

 

[Native]

' date='Aug 31 2006, 08:32 AM' post='5426017']

I think the bottom line is, plummer either plays very well, or cutler comes in.

What makes you think this?Seriously... interested your logic on why a playoff contender would hand over the keys to an unproven n00b.... it's not going to happen unless Jake REALLY REALLY stinks up the joint and puts the Broncos out of playoff contention early (which won't happen). I don't think Plummer needs to play "very well"... I think he just has to play a step about very bad.

I stated this is another thread, but I think more relevant here. The Broncos drafted Jay Cutler high to be the QB of the future. Therefore, I wouldnt be surprised if they gave him some sporadic opportunities during the course of the year to acclimate him to the speed of the NFL. Everyone agrees that Cutler has looked great in camp; in fact, hes already claimed the backup job. If Plummer struggles at any point this year, I wouldnt be surprised if Shanny pulled Jake (even for a half) in order to give Cutler some playing time. I can also see Plummer having a quicker leash in blowouts to give Cutler some additional reps. Point is, I definitely see Cutler recieiving some playing time as the season progresses. While Plummer may not lose the starting job altogether, he should lose some playing time throughout the year - and that should definitely cut into his numbers.There are a few examples of highly-drafted QB's receiving playing time their rookie years despite their clearcut role as a backup:1) First off, I think back to Eli Manning's rookie year. Kurt Warner was playing well and the Giants were playing competitve football. Still, Coughlin waited for Warner to make just one minor mistake before giving Eli the football. That was an extreme example, because the Giants actually tanked the second half of the season in order to get Eli the experience he needed. 2) When Mike Vick was a rookie in 2001, Dan Reeves would give bring him off the bench for 1-2 series at a time to expose him to the rigors of the NFL. Vick cut into Chris Chandlers playing time just enough so that he wouldnt be a succesful Fantasy QB. Vick had 1100 total yards, while Chandler had ~3000 total yards. When QB's are drafted high, it never surprises me if they get sporadic playing time during their rookie year to get upto speed. Obviosuly this doesnt apply to all rookie QB's (Philip Rivers comes to mind), but its something to take into consideration.

 

[bocksheesh]

I like Jake Plummer, and took him in one of my leagues, but the one limitation on Plummer's numbers that I don't think we've seen much until very recently is that the Denver Defense has become very, very good.

So there are going to be increasingly fewer game situations where Plummer is going to have to throw a ton of passes. This helps him in cutting down his notorious interceptions. But I just feel like ultimately Plummer is a QB that plays on a team with too good of a defense and too good of a running game to be a truly elite QB.

 

[bobspruill]

I like Jake Plummer, and took him in one of my leagues, but the one limitation on Plummer's numbers that I don't think we've seen much until very recently is that the Denver Defense has become very, very good.So there are going to be increasingly fewer game situations where Plummer is going to have to throw a ton of passes. This helps him in cutting down his notorious interceptions. But I just feel like ultimately Plummer is a QB that plays on a team with too good of a defense and too good of a running game to be a truly elite QB.

True, but if you're drafting QB1 at the time when Plummer's going off the board, consistency is what you want. In his Broncos incarnation, Plummer seldom has huge weeks, but he seldom has horrible ones, either. If all you're looking to do is not to have your QB position lose the game for you, he's just about perfect.I like a little more upside from my QB, and I also tend to take them earlier, so I haven't really found myself in a place to take Plummer. But if you're going to go all RB/WR deep into the draft, he is a valuable pick.

 

[staggerlee]

Got Plummer as my third QB in round 11 of 10 team league.

Other QB's are Warner, Big Ben, and Leftwich.

Most guys were done with their 2nd QB's before I drafted the Snake.

He is inconsistent but I figure the other guys I got are too so what the hell.

 

[Wingnut]

I took Plummer as my QB2 at 9.01 in a league where td passes = 6 pts. 14th QB to be drafted.

I feel I got tremendous value. QBs picked ahead of him include Big Ben, Bledsoe, Warner, Vick.

:happydance:

 

[SSOG]

Again, I am basing my assumption on a (slight) shift in offensive philosophy based on personnel moves aimed directly at improving the passing offense. The pre-season evidence is too small to prove my theory, but it does not disprove it either. Pre-season trends were presented as FYI type of info and should not be relied on anyhow.

My problem with your post is that you posted Denver's preseason numbers as if they represent some shift in offensive philosophy, when in reality they match last year's offensive philosophy almost EXACTLY. If anything, they're even *MORE* run-heavy than last year's stats (31% passes in the blowout, as opposed to 39% last year, although the same 50/50 split in close games). You said your theory that Denver would have a more balanced play selection was holding true through the preseason, when in reality, if the preseason demonstrated anything, it's that Denver's running *MORE* when it has the lead. Of course, I don't assign any value to that, because of the small sample size... I just felt the need to point out that the preseason numbers were indicating the exact opposite of what you said they were indicating.

Good stuff SSOG! However, put me in the camp that believes that Denver's defense is going to be worse this season. Everything came together for Denver last season. They seemingly led every game for most of the game. They had an amazing TO ratio of like +20 or so. Of which there was a rather inordinate amount of fumbles recovered (which tend to be flukier then INTs). This led to big leads and low pressure on Plummer and the D, not to mention tons of running. I just don't see that repeating. Denver still can't pressure the QB on defense (low amount of sacks last season), and they lost Pryce in the offseason (big loss, as he was the only D-linemen on their team that ever warranted double teams). So the sacks aren't going to get better. Defensively, Denver was forced to blitz almost every down to put any pressure on the QB. I don't see an improved D-line, so I'm not sure how they think this will change any (obviously blitzing all the time is risky). Chances are the turnover ratio will not be +20 again. So basically, I don't see Denver playing with the lead nearly as much this season. Which probably equates to more passes. So long story short, yeah, Plummer should put up better raw stats then last season and will be a nice value pick!

I don't disagree with your conclusion that Denver's Defense is likely to regress, and that it's TO margin is likely to decrease, but I do disagree with some of your specific conclusions.First off, regarding fumbles- fumbles DO tend to be random, but the leading cause of fumbles is sacks, and Denver's sack value is almost certain to increase (for the same reason its turnover margin is destined to decrease- regression to the mean). Even if Denver recovers a lower percentage, I see them forcing more. Besides, while the 16 fumbles accounted for a lot of the turnovers, it was the 20 INTs that were the driving force, and those are less random. I expect the INT numbers to fall a bit now that Bailey is healthy again, because teams will stop testing him all the time (his 8 INTs last year were a career high because teams kept thinking he was gimpy and throwing it his way- a mistake I doubt they'll repeat this year).Also, while Denver didn't get a ton of sacks, they brought a TON of pressure last year. So much pressure that the STANDARD game-plan was pretty much all 3-step drops and quick throws- which is why Denver got so few sacks. Opponents saw them bringing SO MUCH pressure that they relied entirely on max-protect or dump-offs. With fewer blitzes, opponents will start using more 5 and 7 step drops, which should yield more sacks. I know, it sounds counterintuitive, but it's true. If you have any tapes from last season, watch the film and you'll see Denver bringing hellacious pressure and knocking the QB down all game long, only to have him unload it just before he gets hit.Regarding how big of a loss Pryce was... it wasn't as big of a loss as you'd think. He's still solid, but just a shadow of his former self. And as for being the only DL that commanded double-teams... actually, Pryce wasn't even the most-doubled DL last season. Gerard Warren was. Warren was CONSTANTLY doubled, while Pryce was generally left 1-on-1. If Bailey didn't have such a ridiculous season, Warren would have been named Denver's defensive MVP.Also, the scheme Denver ran last year called for the DLine to hold up blockers so the blitzers could come in untouched. The scheme Denver is going to run this season is going to call for the DL to shoot gaps and try to enter the backfield themselves, rather than waiting for the blitzers to come in. This, too, should result in more sacks.And as for whether Denver won't be playing as much with the lead... under Shanahan, no team in the NFL is anywhere NEAR as good as Denver in 1st-quarter point differential. Denver's always gotten leads in a hurry, whether with Plummer, Griese, or Elway.I see Plummer's attempts coming up this season, but not a whole lot. I figure he'll finish somewhere between where he did in 2004 and 2005 in terms of attempts.

and for the cutler pick, how often does Denver get a chance to pick in the top half of the NFL draft??

I 100% agree with your points, and I realize this was a rhetorical question, but I'll answer anyway.Denver has picked in the top half of the draft three times in Shanahan's 12 seasons. They picked 11th this season (their original pick was 28th, iirc, before they traded up so much), and before that the highest they'd picked was 15th (twice). It's a truly mind-boggling accomplishment, and one that I don't think enough people realize the importance of. Shanahan had NEVER been in the position to grab a franchise QB before. Ever. Denver's the only team in the entire NFL that hasn't had a top-10 selection in the past 12 years.

Shanny has said Plummer is the man. Cutler is doing well, but there's no way he takes the reins from Plummer this year, barring injury. Maybe next year, but I think Jake is still the starter next year too. 2008 is Cutler's year. It's a perfect situation for all involved, IMO.

I agree. Not a common opinion, but I'm not at all as certain as everyone else that Cutler's going to be the guy in 2007. Plummer's around, Plummer's pretty cheap, and Cutler will be here for a long time. Might as well give Plummer two years to win and teach Cutler what's what.

 

[SSOG]

Got Plummer as my third QB in round 11 of 10 team league.

Other QB's are Warner, Big Ben, and Leftwich.

Most guys were done with their 2nd QB's before I drafted the Snake.

He is inconsistent but I figure the other guys I got are too so what the hell.

Plummer has failed to score 12 points only 7 times in his 43 games with Denver. One of those times was last year in week 17 against San Diego, when everyone knew he'd be sitting the second half. Discount that game, and Plummer failed to hit 12 points only 6 times in 42 games (14.3%). For comparison purposes, using the last 3 seasons and discounting all games where the QB was pulled early because it was meaningless...

Peyton Manning- failed to hit 12 points 5 out of 45 games (11.1%)

Tom Brady- 7 out of 47 (14.9%)

Marc Bulger- 4 out of 37 (10.8%)

Donovan McNabb- 8 out of 40 (20%)

Plummer's consistency is even more remarkable due to the fact that the more points you score, the more consistant you'll naturally be (If you score 500 points, you're going to tend to have more games over 12 points than if you only post 240 total points). All of those 4 QBs outscored Plummer by a handy margin in terms of points per game, and yet Plummer breaks 12 points just as frequently as they do.

 

[[icon]]

' date='Aug 31 2006, 08:32 AM' post='5426017']

I think the bottom line is, plummer either plays very well, or cutler comes in.

What makes you think this?Seriously... interested your logic on why a playoff contender would hand over the keys to an unproven n00b.... it's not going to happen unless Jake REALLY REALLY stinks up the joint and puts the Broncos out of playoff contention early (which won't happen). I don't think Plummer needs to play "very well"... I think he just has to play a step about very bad.

I stated this is another thread, but I think more relevant here. The Broncos drafted Jay Cutler high to be the QB of the future. Therefore, I wouldnt be surprised if they gave him some sporadic opportunities during the course of the year to acclimate him to the speed of the NFL. Everyone agrees that Cutler has looked great in camp; in fact, hes already claimed the backup job. If Plummer struggles at any point this year, I wouldnt be surprised if Shanny pulled Jake (even for a half) in order to give Cutler some playing time. I can also see Plummer having a quicker leash in blowouts to give Cutler some additional reps. Point is, I definitely see Cutler recieiving some playing time as the season progresses. While Plummer may not lose the starting job altogether, he should lose some playing time throughout the year - and that should definitely cut into his numbers.There are a few examples of highly-drafted QB's receiving playing time their rookie years despite their clearcut role as a backup:1) First off, I think back to Eli Manning's rookie year. Kurt Warner was playing well and the Giants were playing competitve football. Still, Coughlin waited for Warner to make just one minor mistake before giving Eli the football. That was an extreme example, because the Giants actually tanked the second half of the season in order to get Eli the experience he needed. 2) When Mike Vick was a rookie in 2001, Dan Reeves would give bring him off the bench for 1-2 series at a time to expose him to the rigors of the NFL. Vick cut into Chris Chandlers playing time just enough so that he wouldnt be a succesful Fantasy QB. Vick had 1100 total yards, while Chandler had ~3000 total yards. When QB's are drafted high, it never surprises me if they get sporadic playing time during their rookie year to get upto speed. Obviosuly this doesnt apply to all rookie QB's (Philip Rivers comes to mind), but its something to take into consideration.

Did you even read the quotes I posted? Cutler was NOT taken with pretty much a top overall pick and was NOT targeted as being the franchise player for the Broncos. Cutler was taken becuase they felt he was the top QB in the draft and he happened to fall to them. They saw it as value and snatched him up. Shanny has gone on record on MULTIPLE occations saying he's in no rush to move him into the spot... that he's not ready... and tha Plummer has done NOTHING to lose the job. The Broncos have the 3rd best record in the NFL during their current QBs tenure.. that says something. The players respond to Plummer.. they look up to him... he's the leader and face of this franchise right now. Anyone who thinks that Shannahan is going to disturb that chemistry on a playoff contender just because they got good value on a QB in the draft should have their head examined. Hell.. look at Shanny's history in San Francisco... he has NO problem letting top young talents sit and learn while old vets who get the job done are in the game. The ONLY way Cutler sees anything more than garbage time this year is if:1) Plummer is hurt2) Plummer plays like he's hurt (as in horrible... not just "not really good")3) The Broncos completely flop and fall out of playoff contention very earlyThat's it. I'm MORE than willing to wager any amount of to back it up... so please... by ALL MEANS.... if any of you are confident that Cutler will start more than 1 game (possibly week 17) this year outside the outlined circumstances above.... step forward. I'll be more than happy to take your money.

 

[Brasco]

Also, while Denver didn't get a ton of sacks, they brought a TON of pressure last year. So much pressure that the STANDARD game-plan was pretty much all 3-step drops and quick throws- which is why Denver got so few sacks. Opponents saw them bringing SO MUCH pressure that they relied entirely on max-protect or dump-offs. With fewer blitzes, opponents will start using more 5 and 7 step drops, which should yield more sacks. I know, it sounds counterintuitive, but it's true. If you have any tapes from last season, watch the film and you'll see Denver bringing hellacious pressure and knocking the QB down all game long, only to have him unload it just before he gets hit.

That's a good point, and I never really thought of it in that manner. Hopefully, Courtney Brown will be good to go and the D-line can stay healthy. Sounds like the new schemes will rely a lot on the front 4's ability to put pressure on the qb.

 

[njxbean]

' date='Aug 31 2006, 01:59 PM' post='5427944']

' date='Aug 31 2006, 08:32 AM' post='5426017']

I think the bottom line is, plummer either plays very well, or cutler comes in.

What makes you think this?Seriously... interested your logic on why a playoff contender would hand over the keys to an unproven n00b.... it's not going to happen unless Jake REALLY REALLY stinks up the joint and puts the Broncos out of playoff contention early (which won't happen). I don't think Plummer needs to play "very well"... I think he just has to play a step about very bad.

I stated this is another thread, but I think more relevant here. The Broncos drafted Jay Cutler high to be the QB of the future. Therefore, I wouldnt be surprised if they gave him some sporadic opportunities during the course of the year to acclimate him to the speed of the NFL. Everyone agrees that Cutler has looked great in camp; in fact, hes already claimed the backup job. If Plummer struggles at any point this year, I wouldnt be surprised if Shanny pulled Jake (even for a half) in order to give Cutler some playing time. I can also see Plummer having a quicker leash in blowouts to give Cutler some additional reps. Point is, I definitely see Cutler recieiving some playing time as the season progresses. While Plummer may not lose the starting job altogether, he should lose some playing time throughout the year - and that should definitely cut into his numbers.There are a few examples of highly-drafted QB's receiving playing time their rookie years despite their clearcut role as a backup:1) First off, I think back to Eli Manning's rookie year. Kurt Warner was playing well and the Giants were playing competitve football. Still, Coughlin waited for Warner to make just one minor mistake before giving Eli the football. That was an extreme example, because the Giants actually tanked the second half of the season in order to get Eli the experience he needed. 2) When Mike Vick was a rookie in 2001, Dan Reeves would give bring him off the bench for 1-2 series at a time to expose him to the rigors of the NFL. Vick cut into Chris Chandlers playing time just enough so that he wouldnt be a succesful Fantasy QB. Vick had 1100 total yards, while Chandler had ~3000 total yards. When QB's are drafted high, it never surprises me if they get sporadic playing time during their rookie year to get upto speed. Obviosuly this doesnt apply to all rookie QB's (Philip Rivers comes to mind), but its something to take into consideration.

Did you even read the quotes I posted? Cutler was NOT taken with pretty much a top overall pick and was NOT targeted as being the franchise player for the Broncos. Cutler was taken becuase they felt he was the top QB in the draft and he happened to fall to them. They saw it as value and snatched him up. Shanny has gone on record on MULTIPLE occations saying he's in no rush to move him into the spot... that he's not ready... and tha Plummer has done NOTHING to lose the job. The Broncos have the 3rd best record in the NFL during their current QBs tenure.. that says something. The players respond to Plummer.. they look up to him... he's the leader and face of this franchise right now. Anyone who thinks that Shannahan is going to disturb that chemistry on a playoff contender just because they got good value on a QB in the draft should have their head examined. Hell.. look at Shanny's history in San Francisco... he has NO problem letting top young talents sit and learn while old vets who get the job done are in the game. The ONLY way Cutler sees anything more than garbage time this year is if:1) Plummer is hurt2) Plummer plays like he's hurt (as in horrible... not just "not really good")3) The Broncos completely flop and fall out of playoff contention very earlyThat's it. I'm MORE than willing to wager any amount of to back it up... so please... by ALL MEANS.... if any of you are confident that Cutler will start more than 1 game (possibly week 17) this year outside the outlined circumstances above.... step forward. I'll be more than happy to take your money.

It aint that far fetched for plummer to play bad . all im sayin is that if he does, its not far fetched that we will see cutler.

 

[Native]

' date='Aug 31 2006, 12:59 PM' post='5427944']

' date='Aug 31 2006, 08:32 AM' post='5426017']

I think the bottom line is, plummer either plays very well, or cutler comes in.

What makes you think this?Seriously... interested your logic on why a playoff contender would hand over the keys to an unproven n00b.... it's not going to happen unless Jake REALLY REALLY stinks up the joint and puts the Broncos out of playoff contention early (which won't happen). I don't think Plummer needs to play "very well"... I think he just has to play a step about very bad.

I stated this is another thread, but I think more relevant here. The Broncos drafted Jay Cutler high to be the QB of the future. Therefore, I wouldnt be surprised if they gave him some sporadic opportunities during the course of the year to acclimate him to the speed of the NFL. Everyone agrees that Cutler has looked great in camp; in fact, hes already claimed the backup job. If Plummer struggles at any point this year, I wouldnt be surprised if Shanny pulled Jake (even for a half) in order to give Cutler some playing time. I can also see Plummer having a quicker leash in blowouts to give Cutler some additional reps. Point is, I definitely see Cutler recieiving some playing time as the season progresses. While Plummer may not lose the starting job altogether, he should lose some playing time throughout the year - and that should definitely cut into his numbers.There are a few examples of highly-drafted QB's receiving playing time their rookie years despite their clearcut role as a backup:1) First off, I think back to Eli Manning's rookie year. Kurt Warner was playing well and the Giants were playing competitve football. Still, Coughlin waited for Warner to make just one minor mistake before giving Eli the football. That was an extreme example, because the Giants actually tanked the second half of the season in order to get Eli the experience he needed. 2) When Mike Vick was a rookie in 2001, Dan Reeves would give bring him off the bench for 1-2 series at a time to expose him to the rigors of the NFL. Vick cut into Chris Chandlers playing time just enough so that he wouldnt be a succesful Fantasy QB. Vick had 1100 total yards, while Chandler had ~3000 total yards. When QB's are drafted high, it never surprises me if they get sporadic playing time during their rookie year to get upto speed. Obviosuly this doesnt apply to all rookie QB's (Philip Rivers comes to mind), but its something to take into consideration.

Did you even read the quotes I posted? if any of you are confident that Cutler will start more than 1 game (possibly week 17) this year outside the outlined circumstances above.... step forward. I'll be more than happy to take your money.

Did YOU read one word I said? I NEVER said Cutler was going to start a game. I said he will see some sporadic action during the year (injury, blowout, tough outing, etc). If you wouldnt be so argumentative, youd see that we pretty much agree on every point.

 

[moleculo]

' date='Aug 31 2006, 12:59 PM' post='5427944']

' date='Aug 31 2006, 08:32 AM' post='5426017']

I think the bottom line is, plummer either plays very well, or cutler comes in.

What makes you think this?Seriously... interested your logic on why a playoff contender would hand over the keys to an unproven n00b.... it's not going to happen unless Jake REALLY REALLY stinks up the joint and puts the Broncos out of playoff contention early (which won't happen). I don't think Plummer needs to play "very well"... I think he just has to play a step about very bad.

I stated this is another thread, but I think more relevant here. The Broncos drafted Jay Cutler high to be the QB of the future. Therefore, I wouldnt be surprised if they gave him some sporadic opportunities during the course of the year to acclimate him to the speed of the NFL. Everyone agrees that Cutler has looked great in camp; in fact, hes already claimed the backup job. If Plummer struggles at any point this year, I wouldnt be surprised if Shanny pulled Jake (even for a half) in order to give Cutler some playing time. I can also see Plummer having a quicker leash in blowouts to give Cutler some additional reps. Point is, I definitely see Cutler recieiving some playing time as the season progresses. While Plummer may not lose the starting job altogether, he should lose some playing time throughout the year - and that should definitely cut into his numbers.There are a few examples of highly-drafted QB's receiving playing time their rookie years despite their clearcut role as a backup:1) First off, I think back to Eli Manning's rookie year. Kurt Warner was playing well and the Giants were playing competitve football. Still, Coughlin waited for Warner to make just one minor mistake before giving Eli the football. That was an extreme example, because the Giants actually tanked the second half of the season in order to get Eli the experience he needed. 2) When Mike Vick was a rookie in 2001, Dan Reeves would give bring him off the bench for 1-2 series at a time to expose him to the rigors of the NFL. Vick cut into Chris Chandlers playing time just enough so that he wouldnt be a succesful Fantasy QB. Vick had 1100 total yards, while Chandler had ~3000 total yards. When QB's are drafted high, it never surprises me if they get sporadic playing time during their rookie year to get upto speed. Obviosuly this doesnt apply to all rookie QB's (Philip Rivers comes to mind), but its something to take into consideration.

Did you even read the quotes I posted? if any of you are confident that Cutler will start more than 1 game (possibly week 17) this year outside the outlined circumstances above.... step forward. I'll be more than happy to take your money.

Did YOU read one word I said? I NEVER said Cutler was going to start a game. I said he will see some sporadic action during the year (injury, blowout, tough outing, etc). If you wouldnt be so argumentative, youd see that we pretty much agree on every point.

Cutler may see some PT, but not enough to significantly effect Plummers FF numbers. Cutler should be a non-issue with regards to Plummers projections for 2006.

 

[SSOG]

Cutler may see some PT, but not enough to significantly effect Plummers FF numbers. Cutler should be a non-issue with regards to Plummers projections for 2006.

If anything, Cutler seeing action should HELP Plummer. If Cutler's in the game, odds are Denver's leading by 21 or more... and if Denver's leading by 21 or more, odds are Plummer already has at least a pair of scores.