Hot Diggity Dog
Footballguy
I was inspired by the Death and Loss of religion thread, because the decline of religion of all kinds and across all societies in the world at least correlates to the population replacement rates of societies plummeting. But there is a lot more to this phenomenon then just that factor alone. It would be interesting to hear other people's reaction to this.
So, what is happening? Virtually all societies and nations across the world are now in a population decline, except the poorest countries in the world. At current rates South Korea will have 4 people for every 100 that are alive now in the year 2100, China will halve its population somewhere between the year 2050 and 2060 and continue on a downward path from there. Ethnicities and cultures like Russian and Japanese will disappear by the end of the century. There just won't be enough people to keep these places alive. The numbers are pretty straight forward on this and at some point, it is a process that a population cannot recover from.
So, why does this matter? Anyone under the age of 50 is going to witness a huge economic contraction in their lifetime first of all. Even if AI and automation can maintain output levels there isn't going to be enough people to maintain consumption. It seems logical to me that a lot of things are just going to go away because the economies of scale won't justify their production. And as production slows and international trade stops, I think there will a bit of a feedback loop where the more fragile but important supply chains fall apart, like global food production. It will vary from not getting many types of foods than ones that can be grown locally to whole nations facing starvation as access to fertilizer and food supplies stops. Beyond that who knows exactly what happens, how does an aged population care for itself? How do governments continue with dwindling resources of both population and money? All kinds of things we take for granted in an expanding industrialized world are fragile and lack of maintenance, and demand could stop or greatly curtail mass production of say electricity. Nothing that has been built will not crumble away if isn't maintained.
So, why is this happening? The cause of this isn't political, although some policies of different countries might hinder or hasten it. The main trends that correlate with the population decline are, urbanization, industrialization, higher levels of education, higher levels of national wealth, and declining rates of religious belief. The different levels of causation for each category certainly can be argued. I do think that this combination of factors has produced a belief system that rises up in every society that has gone down this path to modern industrialization, no matter their political or ethnic conditions and beliefs. Something, or probably more correctly many things, about this modern world that has been built slows what might have previously been considered the most basic urge of any species, mammalian anyways, having sex and reproducing. It is amazing when you research it, how little sex modern people have compared even to their grandparent's generation. The only people that worldwide that reproduce at a more rate that expands their population are the 1% people in regard to wealth, the highly religious, and the poorest countries mostly located in Sub Saharran Africa. An understanding of the why could lead us to an understanding of what really is fulfilling to people and how a future society could be built build that is technological and sustainable long term.
So, what do you think? This is a pretty broad stroke coverage of this topic, but I hope there is interest in it.
So, what is happening? Virtually all societies and nations across the world are now in a population decline, except the poorest countries in the world. At current rates South Korea will have 4 people for every 100 that are alive now in the year 2100, China will halve its population somewhere between the year 2050 and 2060 and continue on a downward path from there. Ethnicities and cultures like Russian and Japanese will disappear by the end of the century. There just won't be enough people to keep these places alive. The numbers are pretty straight forward on this and at some point, it is a process that a population cannot recover from.
So, why does this matter? Anyone under the age of 50 is going to witness a huge economic contraction in their lifetime first of all. Even if AI and automation can maintain output levels there isn't going to be enough people to maintain consumption. It seems logical to me that a lot of things are just going to go away because the economies of scale won't justify their production. And as production slows and international trade stops, I think there will a bit of a feedback loop where the more fragile but important supply chains fall apart, like global food production. It will vary from not getting many types of foods than ones that can be grown locally to whole nations facing starvation as access to fertilizer and food supplies stops. Beyond that who knows exactly what happens, how does an aged population care for itself? How do governments continue with dwindling resources of both population and money? All kinds of things we take for granted in an expanding industrialized world are fragile and lack of maintenance, and demand could stop or greatly curtail mass production of say electricity. Nothing that has been built will not crumble away if isn't maintained.
So, why is this happening? The cause of this isn't political, although some policies of different countries might hinder or hasten it. The main trends that correlate with the population decline are, urbanization, industrialization, higher levels of education, higher levels of national wealth, and declining rates of religious belief. The different levels of causation for each category certainly can be argued. I do think that this combination of factors has produced a belief system that rises up in every society that has gone down this path to modern industrialization, no matter their political or ethnic conditions and beliefs. Something, or probably more correctly many things, about this modern world that has been built slows what might have previously been considered the most basic urge of any species, mammalian anyways, having sex and reproducing. It is amazing when you research it, how little sex modern people have compared even to their grandparent's generation. The only people that worldwide that reproduce at a more rate that expands their population are the 1% people in regard to wealth, the highly religious, and the poorest countries mostly located in Sub Saharran Africa. An understanding of the why could lead us to an understanding of what really is fulfilling to people and how a future society could be built build that is technological and sustainable long term.
So, what do you think? This is a pretty broad stroke coverage of this topic, but I hope there is interest in it.
I’m doing my part!
