The Cost of Doing Business in 2019 (dynasty) (1 Viewer)

[Soulfly3]

So, this got me thinking... Dynasty PPR

Last week, I made an offer of MIke Evans + 2019 1st +2020 1st for Tyreek Hill. It was rejected.

Flash forward a week later, and we are wondering if Tyreek Hill will ever see the field again. 

Do you, in this day and age of "walking on eggshells", have much more reservation about making HUGE offers/blockbuster deals, knowing that w social media and big brother seemingly everywhere, you're one wrong step away from ruining your roster?

I got shivers thinking about how many yrs that trade would've set me back if Hill does get slapped

 

[fruity pebbles]

I gotta say dynasty is like a minefield these days. Used to be just injuries setting you back. Now the suspensions are an even more dangerous aspect. You can literally put a dent in a championship team overnight.

 

[menobrown]

Do you, in this day and age of "walking on eggshells", have much more reservation about making HUGE offers/blockbuster deals, knowing that w social media and big brother seemingly everywhere, you're one wrong step away from ruining your roster?

No reservations in a general sense because you could just as easily be trading away a future problem as acquiring one.

 

[garlicduck]

So, this got me thinking... Dynasty PPR

Last week, I made an offer of MIke Evans + 2019 1st +2020 1st for Tyreek Hill. It was rejected.

Flash forward a week later, and we are wondering if Tyreek Hill will ever see the field again. 

Do you, in this day and age of "walking on eggshells", have much more reservation about making HUGE offers/blockbuster deals, knowing that w social media and big brother seemingly everywhere, you're one wrong step away from ruining your roster?

I got shivers thinking about how many yrs that trade would've set me back if Hill does get slapped

Well, I think it is definitely something you keep in the back of your mind, especially if they have been in trouble before.  Guys like Zeke, Josh Gordon, Le'veon Bell, Antonio Calloway, Dede Westbrook, Kareem Hunt, Aaron Hernandez  etc. etc. you have to remember and take it into account.  I think we all understand that we are taking risks with some of these players but when they haven't been in trouble in-a-while, we tend to forget and it can come back to haunt us.  Some owners want nothing to do with them...no matter the price.  

I think it's something you factor in, just like age, injury history and team offense.  At the end of the day, like Josh Gordon and Kareem Hunt, it sucks if you lose one of your prime time players.  But I guess it is no different (worse) than losing someone to injury - except, in most leagues you can't even use IR for these types of situations...  I've held Gordon in some leagues for years with little to show and I'm still not sure whether to cut bait.   

 

[Interseptopus]

it's no different than trading in season and watching your guy tear his acl in his next game. 

So no, I dont have any more reservation than I ever have. 

 

[Soulfly3]

it's no different than trading in season and watching your guy tear his acl in his next game. 

So no, I dont have any more reservation than I ever have. 

sure, but those guys are back the next season, usually without issue.

we're starting to see some LONG term/repeat suspensions, which I suspect will only get worse with time

 

[fruity pebbles]

Tyreek should come as no surprise to anyone. Prolly should have been factored into his value but I like others didn’t really. Hunt I had no idea he was a pinhead. That kind came out of nowhere for me. Maybe I should have been paying closer attention.

 

[Arodin]

At the end of the day, though, it’s still one player.  Any dynasty team should have a plan for what to do if they lose their best player, whether to injury, suspension, early retirement (looking at you Calvin!).

Often that costs you a title or two, but as others note, it happens regularly from injury.  

I suppose if I had a team with Antonio, Tyreek, Bell and Odell all on the same roster I might be reeling from all the moves of the past 365 days.  But I’d probably also have a handful of prior titles to ease any future pain.

I’m also wondering how new this is,  ADP spent a year on the commissioner’s list a while back, and I remember the team that had him as RB1 finishing at the bottom last year.  Vick, Burress did jailtime a decade ago and likely hurt dynasty rosters in the process.  

Because some of these incidents are horrific, I am hoping it’s just a statistical quirk that we got two high profile cases in the same year, and not a sign of a worsening trend.  Psychologically I expect the impact of crazy trades like Antonio and Odell is getting conflated with bad behavior in owner’s minds as “higher risk” which is probably fair.  There does seem to be increasing risk of sudden value changes to star players these days.

 

[cloppbeast]

Josh Gordon?

 

[Leroy Hoard]

I think the equation is actual ability ÷ by dumbassness. 

As long as the first remains higher than the second, you still have a job waiting for you.

 

[Slider]

Talent overrides any risk usually. There's a very small number of guys that have a lot of both. 

 

[ZWK]

Losing guys who you thought were cornerstone pieces has always been part of the game. Hakeem Nicks, Trent Richardson, and Percy Harvin were all younger than Tyreek Hill is now when they had their last big season.

 

[-OZ-]

No reservations in a general sense because you could just as easily be trading away a future problem as acquiring one.

As a guy who traded Kareem Hunt last year, yep 

 @   shivers 

 

[Andy Dufresne]

As a guy who traded Kareem Hunt last year, yep 

 @   shivers 

<_<

 

[-OZ-]

<_<

Karma got me though. I'll need to start Kirk or Robby Anderson with Tyreek out. 

 

[NightStalkers]

For me I think you have to put some guys in a don't draft box.  Like Tyreek, Zeke, Hunt, and Mixon.  They have either been suspended or  have previous incidents.  With Zeke I don't really know if he did something or not but no matter what if any of these 3 has an issue a lifetime ban is possible.  Kind of like drafting or trading for Gronk not knowing if he will even continue  his career.  So I pass on those guys....

 

[-OZ-]

For me I think you have to put some guys in a don't draft box.  Like Tyreek, Zeke, Hunt, and Mixon.  They have either been suspended or  have previous incidents.  With Zeke I don't really know if he did something or not but no matter what if any of these 3 has an issue a lifetime ban is possible.  Kind of like drafting or trading for Gronk not knowing if he will even continue  his career.  So I pass on those guys....

Certainly understand the sediment, but to me it's a matter of risk acceptance or not. Taking these guys in the first round is too much risk, taking them at a discount could be a winning move. 

It is too easy to forget about some of these past mistakes, or to assume they've learned. We all like to think the best for these guys.

 

[Hankmoody]

As a guy who traded Kareem Hunt last year, yep 

 @   shivers 

Traded him in 3 leagues

 

[NightStalkers]

Certainly understand the sediment, but to me it's a matter of risk acceptance or not. Taking these guys in the first round is too much risk, taking them at a discount could be a winning move. 

It is too easy to forget about some of these past mistakes, or to assume they've learned. We all like to think the best for these guys.

My view is it has to be stupid value to do anything with those guys.  But nothing like current trade values or ADP would be acceptable.  I had Zeke for a few weeks last offseason and moved him for Kamara and Conner before the Leveon situation...

 

[ghostguy123]

it's no different than trading in season and watching your guy tear his acl in his next game. 

So no, I dont have any more reservation than I ever have. 

It is different because it is in addition to injury.

I have never really been a big fan of making blockbusters where I give 3-4 very valuable pieces for one elite valuable piece because so much changes so fast in FF, and more and more suspensions just adds to that hesitancy for me

 

[bostonfred]

Certainly understand the sediment, but to me it's a matter of risk acceptance or not. Taking these guys in the first round is too much risk, taking them at a discount could be a winning move. 

It is too easy to forget about some of these past mistakes, or to assume they've learned. We all like to think the best for these guys.

I don't know if you can truly understand the sediment until it settles down, and even then it can be multi layered even if it's rock solid. 

 

[Soulfly3]

Anyways... I paid Evans + 2019 2nd + 2020 1st for Odell Beckham (for obvious Browns reasons) and I am fairly confident this will be my last blockbuster dynasty trade.

I absolutely love trading, but the knucklehead factor os the league is bordering out of control. 

Perhaps if the league at least rids itself of their asinine marijuana legislation, I'll open up a slight bit more... But I've suddenly become more risk adverse after almost landing Hill and destroying a solid franchise for a couple seasons

 

[Leroy Hoard]

 Taking these guys in the first round is too much risk, taking them at a discount could be a winning move. 

Much like the way some NFL gms look at it. Taking a shot in the 2nd is not as bad as possibility blowing a 1st.

 

[tangfoot]

Last week, I made an offer of MIke Evans + 2019 1st +2020 1st for Tyreek Hill. It was rejected.

This was a terrible offer to begin with and would have set you back even in the absence of any incident by Hill.  I understand that dynasty owners have "their guys", but I can't see any reason to add to Evans to get Reek, and certainly not a pair of 1sts.

 

[Spin]

So, this got me thinking... Dynasty PPR

Last week, I made an offer of MIke Evans + 2019 1st +2020 1st for Tyreek Hill. It was rejected.

Flash forward a week later, and we are wondering if Tyreek Hill will ever see the field again. 

Do you, in this day and age of "walking on eggshells", have much more reservation about making HUGE offers/blockbuster deals, knowing that w social media and big brother seemingly everywhere, you're one wrong step away from ruining your roster?

I got shivers thinking about how many yrs that trade would've set me back if Hill does get slapped

I traded Wes Welker, Jason Witten and about 35% of our leagues FAAB for Aaron Hernandez.  Literally never got to use him.  That stung for a while and definitely made me more hesitant to pull the trigger down the road.  

 

[voiceofunreason]

I traded Wes Welker, Jason Witten and about 35% of our leagues FAAB for Aaron Hernandez.  Literally never got to use him.  That stung for a while and definitely made me more hesitant to pull the trigger down the road.  

I was in a salary cap league with Hernandez,  Gordon and Blackmon. Whoops.

 

[cloppbeast]

FF has turned ino deciphering police reports, watching surveillance footage, and reading witness testimonies; or figuring the odds a guy will smoke pot again.

I miss the days of guessing Mike Shanahan's starting running back. 

 

[tangfoot]

FF has turned ino deciphering police reports, watching surveillance footage, and reading witness testimonies; or figuring the odds a guy will smoke pot again.

I miss the days of guessing Mike Shanahan's starting running back. 

All of this is just a

 

[bucksoh]

So, this got me thinking... Dynasty PPR

Last week, I made an offer of MIke Evans + 2019 1st +2020 1st for Tyreek Hill. It was rejected.

Flash forward a week later, and we are wondering if Tyreek Hill will ever see the field again. 

Do you, in this day and age of "walking on eggshells", have much more reservation about making HUGE offers/blockbuster deals, knowing that w social media and big brother seemingly everywhere, you're one wrong step away from ruining your roster?

I got shivers thinking about how many yrs that trade would've set me back if Hill does get slapped

If I was a Hill owner would accept that deal fast as I could.  Crazy to turn that deal down!

 

[Soulfly3]

If I was a Hill owner would accept that deal fast as I could.  Crazy to turn that deal down!

he not only turned it down, he responded with an "LOL" over txt. 

I was actually shocked. I'm the type that generally offers a VERY fair offer to start, or even overpay (like in this case). I thought he'd say yes, immediately.

Anyways, it was obviously for the better... Ended up with Odell, on my Brownies  

 

[BigTex]

Yes, i’ve been turned down a few times in which I was CLEARLY overpaying for a player that I absolutely wanted on my team only to be relieved later in the year as I watched that player fail for or not live up to his potential for whatever reason.

For instance, after Carolina’s Super Bowl run I went hard for Cam Newton. I offered Carr and A. Smith a long with two 1st and two 2nd rounders. I’m so glad he turned it down. I ended up winning the Championship anyway and have a young stud of team including QBs. Luck is my starter with  Mayfield, Wentz, and Trubisky on the bench. Had I made the trade it would have set me back a bit but I was loaded with picks.

Now I don’t offer trades like that, the idea of overpaying for that player you want is not a part of my strategy anymore. Now It’s draft well, manage well and make smart lineup decisions and leave the “luck” to the fantasy gods.

Tex

 

[Dr. Octopus]

There's always going to be some element of luck involved in any trade (and all other aspects of FF) - so I don't see how this Hill situation changes the landscape much.

 

[ghostguy123]

There's always going to be some element of luck involved in any trade (and all other aspects of FF) - so I don't see how this Hill situation changes the landscape much.

Because there are more and more situations popping up these days where players are done when you wouldn't figure they would be.  Players retiring ala Calvin Johnson, more guys ruined with substance ala Gordon.  Now more guys ruined with DV and whatnot.  

It just adds to the risk of putting your eggs in one basket

 

[tangfoot]

Because there are more and more situations popping up these days where players are done when you wouldn't figure they would be.  Players retiring ala Calvin Johnson, more guys ruined with substance ala Gordon.  Now more guys ruined with DV and whatnot.  

It just adds to the risk of putting your eggs in one basket

You've mentioned two specific players. Can you think of any other examples of players relevant to dynasty leagues who would qualify for your "more and more situations" blanket statement?  Because I can't.

Hunt's value took a big hit, but he's back on a team and his value will definitely rise as long as he's productive.  Anyone else?

 

[Interseptopus]

Because there are more and more situations popping up these days where players are done when you wouldn't figure they would be.  Players retiring ala Calvin Johnson, more guys ruined with substance ala Gordon.  Now more guys ruined with DV and whatnot.  

It just adds to the risk of putting your eggs in one basket

sorry, but this is nothing new. Robert Smith and Barry Sanders retired early. 

Guys have had substance issues for years. Ricky Williams quit a season to go smoke pot. Michael Irvin loved his cocaine. 

And legal troubles have always been an issue. It's not new or unique to 2019. The NFL may have always turned a blind eye until cameras were everywhere and captured Ray Rice, but it's nothing new

 

[ghostguy123]

. The NFL may have always turned a blind eye until cameras were everywhere and captured Ray Rice, but it's nothing new

Seems this is the new part.

 

[Interseptopus]

Seems this is the new part.

I can admit that the chances of having your player suspended these days for DV is higher than it was 10 years ago, but I dont think it's anything new from the last 5 years. 

To refer back to the OP, I think blockbuster deals were never a guarantee, and I never liked putting all of my eggs in one basket. Maybe today there is 1 more risk, but the percent of people that fall into that 1 more risk is so small I dont think it's a big issue that would stop me from making a big trade. 

It's just a reminder that the NFL stands for Not For Long... sometimes dynasty players forget that 

 

[Conan Troutman]

Whoops didn't want to post anything, please ignore/delete.