The DB's (1 Viewer)

[Rovers]

First, let me preface with the scoring in my two IDP Dynasty leagues, because our scoring is more aggresive for Defensive players as compared to FBG's and Zealot scoring:

Tackle - 2

Asst tackle - 1

Sack - 3

Fumble recovery - 2

Forced Fumble - 3

Interception - 3

Safety - 3

Pass defended - 1.5

Defensive TD - 6

In looking over the FBG rankings, I see several things that I think deserve another look. I will list a players rankings in the order that they appear on the site....

McGraw

Bloom

Culcasi

Bramel

Rudnicki

Eric Coleman- 42-9-7-17-13-17.6 avg, ranked 15 overall.

While Coleman has put up nice numbers in his first two years, there are rumors the new CS didn't like what they saw on film. Part of that may be attributable to the fact that Ty Law often ball hawked, and could not cover deep. That made Coleman often play somewhat out of position because Law left his assignments. The Jets didn't spend a thrid round pick on Eric Smith out of Michigan St for no reason at all. That draft pick was directed squarely at Coleman. If you own Coleman, get Smith while he's still cheap. You can thank me later. With a low of 42, and a high of 7, clearly there are wildly varying opinions on Coleman.

Donte Whitner - *-22-17-22-18-28.0 avg, ranked 25 overall.

McGraw obviously missed Whitner here, but I have to wonder if even with that, 25 is too high. Even as a Whitner owner, he still has to beat out Bowen to start, and that is no slam dunk, by a long shot, and Coy Wire is still hanging around. I could see a rotation at SS in Buffalo, and with that much uncertainty, I'm reluctant to plug Whitner in this high. He stays on my taxi squad for now.

Shawntae Spencer - *-49-5-30-48- 38.6 avg, ranked 35 overall.

This CB is WAY under rated, except by Culcasi, who I think has him too high at 5. Spencer was the #14 DB in my scoring systems last year, and even at that, is an emerging player. As bad as SF's offense was, and the D snaps Spencer enjoyed, teams weren't throwing at him.... no need to throw against SF to win. Still, he still had 74 T's, 9 asst's, 4 INT's, 1 TD, and 19 passes defensed in his second year. That was in 15 games and 14 starts (due to injury). I think he's a LOCK for top 20. While I think SF as a team, and an offense is under ranked this year, Spencer should again enjoy plenty of D snaps again this year.

Lito Sheppard - Only Bloom even ranked him at all. Lito didn't retire.... he just got hurt. He's back, and he's healthy. Opponents didn't have to pass much against Philly last year, and Sheppard missed the last 6 games. But, if you go back to 2004, Sheppard had very solid numbers in 15 games. In 2004:

2 TD's

59 tackles

5 asst's

5 INT's

19 passes defensed

In ten games in 2005:

27 Tackles

4 asst's

3 INT's

9 passes defensed

If Philly is a competitive team this year, which I think they will be, Sheppard could put up numbers similar to 2004. Having Sheldon Brown on the other side, I think teams will test Sheppard as much as they can in 2006. We all know.... CB's that score FF points do so because they get picked on. I think teams will test Sheppards health and abilty to cover, especially early in the season.

Just some observations on my part, for discussion.

 

[Bob_Magaw]

hey rovers,

thanx for the feedback... double check the rankings... i have whitner listed (at #15, highest staff ranking, i think)... here is upside on faceoff from few weeks ago... i also have spencer & am high on him, though cracker & jene have highest staff rankings on him...

back to whitner, i would be very, very surprised if he isn't starting by week one... he has far more athletic ability & talent than bowen... i don't think they took him at #8 to sit him on the bench... everything i have heard from early reports are that they think he will pick up things quickly & looks very game ready...

i have some of the same concerns as you do about coleman, which is why i have one of the lower rankings... i think he will do much better than #42 if he retains job, but i had to factor in possibility he could lose job... he was the subject of another one of the upcoming faceoffs (should be posted to site any day), & i mentioned the smith pick as a negative...

http://www.footballguys.com/06faceoff-WhitDo99.php

Safety seems to be the defensive version of RB in that the learning curve isn't as steep for rookies to make an early impact. In 2005, Kerry Rhodes finished top 5 among safeties in tackles last season. In 2004, Gibril Wilson could have led all safeties in tackles (on prorated basis), Madieu Williams was top 5 and Erik Coleman near top 10 (Wilson and Coleman were top 5 last season, and Williams might have been if not for injury). In 2003, Ken Hamlin was top 5 among safeties in tackles and Mike Doss was top 10.

Fellow Buckeye alum and slightly undersized SS Doss is sometimes cited as a comp player. Despite being more decorated (three-time All-American, like Ohio State legend Archie Griffin), the rookie has superior speed, quickness, coverage ability and instincts and hits just as hard, which should translate to a more accomplished pro career. Explosive "mighty mite" Bob Sanders (like teammate Doss and Whitner carries the undersized label but hits bigger than his size) is a better comp... but even that founders on coverage deficiencies of the Colts Pro Bowler. While the "Hitman" has blown up more opponents than the Tomahawk cruise missile program, Whitner isn't exactly a slacker in the no nonsense, super intense, hard-nosed run support department.

Among the top four DBs in the draft coveted for their well rounded run support and coverage skills (as well as the elite athleticism to line up at S or CB), Whitner may end up the only SS... a coveted secondary position in IDP scoring. Michael Huff is expected to reprise Charles Woodson's hybrid FS/CB rover role, Jason Allen lined up at FS in mini-camp and Jimmy Williams will play CB. While the Bills were widely questioned for selecting him with the 8th overall pick (top 10 safeties are rare... before Huff and Whitner, Sean Taylor and Roy Williams were the last two), the fact that new GM Marv Levy could have better maximized the value of the pick is a separate issue from whether the controversial prospect is a blue chip talent, has an NFL ready game and the ability to make a big impact in IDP leagues.

 

[Chaos Commish]

Hey Bob,

I'm with you on Whitner, but the site is not keeping up with you. In redraft rankings you have are the highest on Whitner. In dynasty rankings you have him unranked.

I figured you were anticipating a great rookie campaign and a career ending injury.

I'm sure it's an oversight.

Ranking DBs is a thankless task, but I appreciate a consensus of opinion like we have here. It helps, but like Rovers I see several rankings that are questionable to me. I agree with the consensus more than Rovers on Whitner. I think Rovers is right on Erik Coleman, and I usually fall more in line with Bloom than anyone else on staff. But we're miles apart on Coleman. I think Rovers (and Bloom) are on the right track with Spencer. The niners have a star there and he's an IDP producer type cornerback.

I also think Bloom is the only one who has Charles Tillman right. I loved him last year. The whole time he was helping my fantasy team it was becoming clear the Bears saw him as a weak link. Enter Manning and Hester in the 2nd round. There's a definite starting job for Tillman in Chicago, but last year was probably an outlier for his career idp production.

There's no way to be on the same page with everyone, and that's what makes this fun. For dynasty purposes I cannot imagine a top 60 without Cromartie involved. Without quite the high hopes, I feel the same about Jimmy Williams and Tye Hill. This was a great crop of rookie DBs. I'd rather err by taking a couple this year, than not have a shot at them next...

 

[Tick]

There's a definite starting job for Tillman in Chicago, but last year was probably an outlier for his career idp production.

It was clearly his best year, but he had very good stats two years ago:YR TM G TKL AST SACK FF FR INT PD FPT RANK VBD

2003 CHI 16 74 7 1 2 0 4 12 113 16 8

2004 CHI 7 32 7 0 1 0 0 5 43 150 0

2005 CHI 15 85 11 1 4 0 5 16 138 3 33

 

[Jene Bramel]

Cool discussion.

Shawntae Spencer

I've been all over the place on Spencer and it's reflected in my seemingly schizophrenic current rankings (18th redraft, 30th dynasty) of him. I've not seen him play unfortunately, so I'm relying on gamebooks, stats, and scouting reports. And, also unfortunately, the two sets of data do not match. Every scouting report (except for the outlook Magaw wrote for us) I read pans Spencer's cover skills, including recovery speed and ball skills. Yet he had four picks and 19 passes defended last season on a team, albeit on a team that faced the third most passing attempts in the league. When I don't have a great read on a player, I'm much more conservative projecting him. For now, I'd much rather have Tillman, Clements, Barber, Taylor than Spencer, but he's right there in that second tier. He should be ranked nearly equally in both dynasty and redraft rankings and I'll correct that error soon.

Charles Tillman

I love me some Charles Tillman. I read all the criticisms of Tillman and I don't get it. The guy certainly isn't the best cover corner in the league, but he isn't supposed to be in the Tampa-2, no matter how aggressively Lovie Smith wants to run it. He can play press coverage well, and he's got the recovery speed/ball skills to make plays. The guy has made 51 plays on the ball (sacks, fumbles, INTs, PD) in 39 games. So he got burned by Steve Smith - who didn't? ETA: Those mistakes had a fair amount to do with the deep safety failing as well. It's going to take a lot of convincing to get me to believe Devin Hester can succeed as an NFL Cover-2 corner. And most indications are that Manning was signed to be a nickel guy, besides the fact that he's never be an able run support corner. Tick has already noted that Tillman was a solid corner before the Cover-2, and it shouldn't be a surprise that his numbers got a big bump in the more aggressive scheme.

Eric Coleman

I'll definitely be looking into Rovers' note about Eric Smith. I like Coleman, but he's in a tier with all kinds of other young safeties with a blemish or two. I've got him at 17, but he could just as easily be in the late twenties.

Lito Sheppard

Meh. I think I'm about as progressive on corners as they come, but this is exactly the kind of corner I avoid. Guys like Sheppard and Champ Bailey are absolutely reliant on big plays to make a pretty boxscore. One season they'll get 5 plus picks, the next they'll have two. They aren't threats to top 60 solo tackles, so they're way too inconsistent to start regularly. Sheppard may belong in the top sixty and he may break into mine during training camp when the battles play themselves out in other places. But he's a spot starter at best in my mind.

Donte Whitner

I'm pretty confident in our consensus on Whitner. This guy is exactly what a Cover-2 strong safety should be. He may not put up Lawyer Milloy circa 2000 tackle stats, but he'll provide very solid coverage stats and should easily hit 70 solo tackles in a starting role. If he earns the starting role in week one, he'll move into my top 25 in redraft leagues. And he'll probably be creeping up my dynasty list a bit too (top 20) if he gets good marks from the coaches in camp. I'm not at all worried about Coy Wire and Matt Bowen.

 

[Chaos Commish]

There's a definite starting job for Tillman in Chicago, but last year was probably an outlier for his career idp production.

It was clearly his best year, but he had very good stats two years ago:YR TM G TKL AST SACK FF FR INT PD FPT RANK VBD

2003 CHI 16 74 7 1 2 0 4 12 113 16 8

2004 CHI 7 32 7 0 1 0 0 5 43 150 0

2005 CHI 15 85 11 1 4 0 5 16 138 3 33

Yep. Maybe 'outlier' is the wrong description of what I'm thinking. I had Tillman for both of his productive years and both times got him off of waivers after the season started. I do like him but I'm suggesting Bloom has it right considering him in the mid-20s and considering the situation in Chicago. I'm not expert on Chicago, and I was surprised to hear the homers whining about him, but the draft was pretty telling. I think. I'll be very open minded about him if someone offers better insights. He was available at the end of an auction I finished today. I needed a DB and went in another direction - Reed - 12 teamer carry two DBs. So 24 were taken.

 

[Tick]

There's a definite starting job for Tillman in Chicago, but last year was probably an outlier for his career idp production.

It was clearly his best year, but he had very good stats two years ago:YR TM G TKL AST SACK FF FR INT PD FPT RANK VBD

2003 CHI 16 74 7 1 2 0 4 12 113 16 8

2004 CHI 7 32 7 0 1 0 0 5 43 150 0

2005 CHI 15 85 11 1 4 0 5 16 138 3 33

Yep. Maybe 'outlier' is the wrong description of what I'm thinking. I had Tillman for both of his productive years and both times got him off of waivers after the season started. I do like him but I'm suggesting Bloom has it right considering him in the mid-20s and considering the situation in Chicago. I'm not expert on Chicago, and I was surprised to hear the homers whining about him, but the draft was pretty telling. I think. I'll be very open minded about him if someone offers better insights. He was available at the end of an auction I finished today. I needed a DB and went in another direction - Reed - 12 teamer carry two DBs. So 24 were taken.

The draft might not be that telling, though - I don't think they drafted Hester for his CB skills. He could be a very versatile player who can play respectably at WR, nickle, and be good at returns, freeing up roster spots.

 

[Rovers]

First, an apology... I was looking at the dynasty rankings, didn't say so, and did not look at the redraft rankings.... sloppy work on my part. For some reason, it appears as though Bob's rookie rankings didn't get into the dynasty rankings, including not just Whitner, but Huff as well. I should have picked up on that.

I understand the problem with a player like Spencer. Being on the east coast, I don't get to see any SF games. However, since I do own him in one league, I have watched him through reports as best I could. In general, CB's are inconsistant, the way Sheppard (is) could be. Being in 16 team dynasty leagues with a 3 DB starting requirement (2-3 DL or 2-3 DB) means most teams by necessity will have to use some CB's. Everything I've seen on Spencer says that expectations are very high for this kid, going into his third year.

For consistancy, Spencer was under 10 points (in this scoring system) only ONCE in the 15 games he played in. Spencer was 14 in scoring, while Champ Bailey was 18th, but Bailey had less than 10 points four times in his 14 games. In fact, in this scoring system, using the ten point plateu, Spencer was more consistant than Barber, Winfield, Clements.... all of the other CB's. Last year he scored more like a safety, not a hit or miss CB on a weekly basis.

Great discussion on Tillman....

I am a rabid Jets homer. I keep my ear to the ground, and have some contacts through contacts (LOL) so I can't always back up my stuff with links. I do go to the open TC practice sessions, maybe 10 per year, and that is why I was able to get Rhodes on waivers for $1 last year. Once TC starts, I'll have a better idea on how precarious Coleman's situation really is. The reports on Smith from mini-camp were good.... of course, that stuff is always good, but .... there were too many reports that glowed about Smith. These NY reporters would have loved to rip this new regime for taking him in the third round, but they didn't. Instead they said he plays much faster than his timed speed.

Remember also, that this isn't Edwards' defense, where the safeties arent SS and FS, they were supposedly interchangable. LS and RS. Smith is much more typical of a run support SS than Coleman is. Think Harrison in NE. Rhodes is the better cover safety, so he appears to be safe as the FS. If Smith performs with pads the way he did in mini-camp, there may be some dissappointed Coleman owners out there. Coleman is a tough nosed kid though, and I'm not counting him out (or in a rotation) just yet.

 

[No. 16]

I don't have much to offer but who do you guys perfer between Spencer and Taylor?

It seems to me both CB played very well last year and had solid tackle numbers to go along with PD.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

My feelings on Coleman are covered in the faceoff - I think he'll get his big plays again this year as the team bounces back at least a little bit, and he'll get his 100 total tackles - Eric Smith may threaten him eventually, but this year he should be main cog in the secondary. He seems excited about Mangini's defense. I have adjusted my dynasty ranking of him down a little.

Whitner has been covered well - I expect him to start almost from day one and put up very nice numbers.

Spencer is one of my top rated CBs - he would be higher, but I have a heavy bias for safeties in my rankings.

Sheppard is in my 2nd tier of CBs, all solid guys to have as a DB3 or 4, good guys to go after once the decent safeties and top CBs are gone...

good thread.

 

[Bob_Magaw]

First, an apology... I was looking at the dynasty rankings, didn't say so, and did not look at the redraft rankings.... sloppy work on my part. For some reason, it appears as though Bob's rookie rankings didn't get into the dynasty rankings, including not just Whitner, but Huff as well. I should have picked up on that.

I understand the problem with a player like Spencer. Being on the east coast, I don't get to see any SF games.  However, since I do own him in one league, I have watched him through reports as best I could. In general, CB's are inconsistant, the way Sheppard (is) could be. Being in 16 team dynasty leagues with a 3 DB starting requirement (2-3 DL or 2-3 DB) means most teams by necessity will have to use some CB's. Everything I've seen on Spencer says that expectations are very high for this kid, going into his third year.

For consistancy, Spencer was under 10 points (in this scoring system) only ONCE in the 15 games he played in. Spencer was 14 in scoring, while Champ Bailey was 18th, but Bailey had less than 10 points four times in his 14 games. In fact, in this scoring system, using the ten point plateu, Spencer was more consistant than Barber, Winfield, Clements.... all of the other CB's. Last year he scored more like a safety, not a hit or miss CB on a weekly basis.

Great discussion on Tillman....

I am a rabid Jets homer. I keep my ear to the ground, and have some contacts through contacts (LOL) so I can't always back up my stuff with links. I do go to the open TC practice sessions, maybe 10 per year, and that is why I was able to get Rhodes on waivers for $1 last year. Once TC starts, I'll have a better idea on how precarious Coleman's situation really is. The reports on Smith from mini-camp were good.... of course, that stuff is always good, but .... there were too many reports that glowed about Smith. These NY reporters would have loved to rip this new regime for taking him in the third round, but they didn't. Instead they said he plays much faster than his timed speed.

Remember also, that this isn't Edwards' defense, where the safeties arent SS and FS, they were supposedly interchangable. LS and RS. Smith is much more typical of a run support SS than Coleman is. Think Harrison in NE. Rhodes is the better cover safety, so he appears to be safe as the FS. If Smith performs with pads the way he did in mini-camp, there may be some dissappointed Coleman owners out there.  Coleman is a tough nosed kid though, and I'm not counting him out (or in a rotation) just yet.

hey rovers,no need to apologize, my bad for not updating dynasty rankings (rookies weren't in database when i first did) or realizing what you were talking about...

thanx for bringing to my attention... i added whitner, mario... still need to add huff & update dynasty rankings in general in next day or so...

 

[Rovers]

Here are a couple of excerpts from a chat last night with Rich Cimini, the NY Daily News' Jets beat reporter:

R44] 8:28 pm: Speaking of “Smith’s”, can you elaborate just a little more on Eric Smith from Michigan State? He wasn’t a popular pick on message boards, but he’s a good athlete…

[RichCimini] 8:29 pm: And very bright. If you can remember only one thing about Mangini’s safeties, it’s that he wants guys smart enough to put people around them in the right place. I have a Mich State source who says Smith was a real solid pick, that he was the glue to that team.

[R44] 8:29 pm: Yes, Smith was recruited by Ivy League and Big 10 schools — that says a lot

[4HCrew] 8:52 pm: Rich two parter.. do you think Vilma will be able to succeed in the new defense? Also how do you see the safety position panning out, Rhodes and Coleman?

[RichCimini] 8:54 pm: Vilma will never admit it, but I think he’s very concerned about how this is going to work in a 3-4. He saw what happened to Ray Lewis in Baltimore and he knows he’s not suited to take on guards. This situation bears watching.

[RichCimini] 8:55 pm: Right now, Rhodes and Coleman are the favorites, but I don’t think Coleman is as entrenched as some might believe. Remember what I said before: Eric wants cerebral safeties. Coleman made alot of mental e’s last season.

I'm not saying Coleman is ranked too high, but just a heads up that this situation bears watching.

 

[pretender]

Here are a couple of excerpts from a chat last night with Rich Cimini, the NY Daily News' Jets beat reporter:

R44] 8:28 pm: Speaking of “Smith’s”, can you elaborate just a little more on Eric Smith from Michigan State? He wasn’t a popular pick on message boards, but he’s a good athlete…

[RichCimini] 8:29 pm: And very bright. If you can remember only one thing about Mangini’s safeties, it’s that he wants guys smart enough to put people around them in the right place. I have a Mich State source who says Smith was a real solid pick, that he was the glue to that team.

[R44] 8:29 pm: Yes, Smith was recruited by Ivy League and Big 10 schools — that says a lot

[4HCrew] 8:52 pm: Rich two parter.. do you think Vilma will be able to succeed in the new defense? Also how do you see the safety position panning out, Rhodes and Coleman?

[RichCimini] 8:54 pm: Vilma will never admit it, but I think he’s very concerned about how this is going to work in a 3-4. He saw what happened to Ray Lewis in Baltimore and he knows he’s not suited to take on guards. This situation bears watching.

[RichCimini] 8:55 pm: Right now, Rhodes and Coleman are the favorites, but I don’t think Coleman is as entrenched as some might believe. Remember what I said before: Eric wants cerebral safeties. Coleman made alot of mental e’s last season.

I'm not saying Coleman is ranked too high, but just a heads up that this situation bears watching.

The Latest from KFFLJets | Smith could start at safety

Sat, 24 Jun 2006 08:36:53 -0700

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Rich Cimini, writing for the SportingNews, reports New York Jets S Eric Smith is a darkhorse candidate in the safety position. Smith is an extremely bright player – a quality head coach Eric Mangini looks for out of his safeties.

Rovers

 

[Rovers]

Here are a couple of excerpts from a chat last night with Rich Cimini, the NY Daily News' Jets beat reporter:

R44] 8:28 pm: Speaking of “Smith’s”, can you elaborate just a little more on Eric Smith from Michigan State? He wasn’t a popular pick on message boards, but he’s a good athlete…

[RichCimini] 8:29 pm: And very bright. If you can remember only one thing about Mangini’s safeties, it’s that he wants guys smart enough to put people around them in the right place. I have a Mich State source who says Smith was a real solid pick, that he was the glue to that team.

[R44] 8:29 pm: Yes, Smith was recruited by Ivy League and Big 10 schools — that says a lot

[4HCrew] 8:52 pm: Rich two parter.. do you think Vilma will be able to succeed in the new defense? Also how do you see the safety position panning out, Rhodes and Coleman?

[RichCimini] 8:54 pm: Vilma will never admit it, but I think he’s very concerned about how this is going to work in a 3-4. He saw what happened to Ray Lewis in Baltimore and he knows he’s not suited to take on guards. This situation bears watching.

[RichCimini] 8:55 pm: Right now, Rhodes and Coleman are the favorites, but I don’t think Coleman is as entrenched as some might believe. Remember what I said before: Eric wants cerebral safeties. Coleman made alot of mental e’s last season.

I'm not saying Coleman is ranked too high, but just a heads up that this situation bears watching.

The Latest from KFFLJets | Smith could start at safety

Sat, 24 Jun 2006 08:36:53 -0700

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Rich Cimini, writing for the SportingNews, reports New York Jets S Eric Smith is a darkhorse candidate in the safety position. Smith is an extremely bright player – a quality head coach Eric Mangini looks for out of his safeties.

Rovers

LOL, and thanks, Pretender! When it comes to the Jets, to be honest, there aren't many people who know as much inside stuff as I do, unless they are on staff. I usually have tidbits like this before the press does, but I try to be both modest and protective of my sources..... if I didn't, they would not keep me up to speed. My contacts don't spill all the beans, but I've found them to be very reliable when they do throw me a bone. It's amazing how much an intern who is playing ball boy can find out! I'd best not say much more than that though....

 

[Pick]

Per The Blogger

Rookie FS D. Manning Makes Big Play

Brad Briggs, Chicago Sun-Times - [Full Article]

Chicago Bears rookie FS Daniel Manning made a huge hit today and is pressing starting FS Chris Harris. "We think he is a safety with corner skills," coach Lovie Smith said. "He needs to do it out here, and today was a step."

 

[Rovers]

After attending TC today, Coleman is as of now the clear starter at SS for the Jets.... if things change, I'll chime in.