The Depth at WR 2016 - I'm not so sure...... (1 Viewer)

[TZMarkie]

It seems that every year for the last 4-5 years we constantly hear how "deep" the WR position is.

 (Quarterback depth is the new hot topic going into this season though, everyone is yelling WAIT ON A QB!! )

 So I have been doing some thinking. Then I looked back at a list from the top 20 or so WRs from last year.

 The names are..

Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, Brandon Marshall, Allen Robinson, Odell Beckham Jr., DeAndre Hopkins, Doug Baldwin, A.J.Green,Eric Decker and Larry Fitzgerald.

The next 10 are Calvin Johnson, Brandin Cooks, Demaryius Thomas, Allen Hurns, Jarvis Landry, Sammy Watkins, Jeremy Maclin, Emmanuel Sanders , Michael Crabtree and Jordan Matthews.

 I got that info from here  http://games.espn.go.com/ffl/leaders?&seasonTotals=true&seasonId=2015&slotCategoryId=4 

 The actual league format and scoring that you personally use or play in obviously matters, but I'm just going to examine the top 20 listed.

Everyone says "WR is super deep", but how deep is it honestly? Now I tend to play in "start 3 WR leagues", which I think is a much better format than the more typical "start 2WR" for a variety of reasons, but I am not looking to argue that here.

 The fact is, exactly how many of the above would you be super happy with going into next season as your two starters?

 I think we all can agree that the super studs/elite are Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, Odell Beckham Jr., DeAndre Hopkins and A.J. Green.

There are another handful I think that are close to "elite status", and this is where many of our opinions start to diverge. (you may think they are more in the super studs category, or maybe a slight bit lower into the "very good" range)  I view these as Allen Robinson and Demaryius Thomas. I tend to think of DT as elite personally, but this is sort of my point.

 No matter how you value the rest of the top 20, there are big uncertainties and issues in each of their cases.

Calvin Johnson- He is retired now, so he sort of gets a pass. But even if he weren't, his skills seemed to have started declining in a big way.

Allen Robinson and Demaryius Thomas -  I will mention these together, since I  broke them down into a slight step below the elite. I think DT has everything he needs to be a top 5-8 WR every season, but last year he fell off for a variety of reasons, and QB play was a big factor and in a game or two he seemingly forgot how to catch.  This year we don't even know what the QB situation will be yet...right?

 Allen Robinson took a big leap last year and I anticipated that and capitalized in many of my leagues. Will the Jags have to throw as much? It certainly doesn't appear so as they have tightened up just about everywhere, defense and RB included. Simply put they shouldn't have to be in as many shootouts and I also certainly don't think the 14 TDs on 80 receptions will continue. It will most certainly regress.

Doug Baldwin - I think the reasons why most of us don't view him as highly as this are pretty apparent. Seattle doesn't throw that much (ask the Russell Wilson owners how the first half of last season worked out for them) I do believe their uncertainty around their RB situation may cause them to pass a bit more, but are you going to draft this guy and expect the same lines as late season last year? GOOD LUCK.

 Brandon Marshall- Do you see those numbers happening again?  He has been (at least a bit of an) injury risk for some time now, but I don't think we can see those numbers again either. He had a fluky game or two, and even if Ryan Fitzpatrick comes back there is just no way this pace keeps up either. Marshall will be on my do not draft list this year.

I owned ERIC DECKER each of the last 3 years in some spots, and two years ago his numbers were misleading. He missed a game or two, and he was playing hurt in at least 3 others. I saw the tape and watched him closely. I figured he might be a pleasant surprise last season, and that he was. But here is another case where I just can't see the 12 TDs on 80 receptions continuing.  OH, and God forbid they end up having Geno Smith as their QB this season. If thats the case I want precisely zero shares of Decker or Marshall either one. (well, maybe if I could get Decker as my WR3 again, but even then I doubt I want to go down that Geno Smith road)

Larry Fitzgerald- He exploded out of the gate hot in 2015, and then did the best Houdini act he could muster the last half of the season. He will have to be one Hell of a value for me to own him anywhere. I like the offense, but we have to chalk up at least a little of his big early-season numbers to Michael Floyd being injured last season.  I have said it for several years now, but I won't be touching Larry Fitzgerald anywhere either, unless his ADP is completely at the bottom of the basement come draft day. He would be a "WR3 only", and there is just no way I will get him as that.

 Brandin Cooks- Now here is one I am bullish on. Will he finish top 5?  We all know thats very unlikely, but I see a strong season from him if he can stay healthy. Brees likes him and he is an offensive staple for the team. His first 7 weeks were a bit slow last year barring one good game, but I think that was a bit of a fluke.

 Allen Hurns- See Allen Robinson/their defense has ramped up and their run game has improved also. I think he falls off more than just about any of the other Jags WRs. 64 catches and 10 TDs??? Not going to happen with all the improvement they have had preseason.  He will be decent in stretches, but good luck on being able to start him with confidence every week.

 Jarvis Landry- This is one I am not sure on one way or the other. (as if we can ever be sure) Adding DeVante Parker can both help Landry and hurt also. I think Landry will continue to be a big part of the offense, but I am not quite sure he will make the top 20. I'm thinking more along the top 25 range. I think the chaos last year of "will we run it or will we not" most definitely helped Landry and he saw heavy usage because of it.

 Sammy Watkins-  I think its tough to judge this one until we see his health and status. If he looks good in camp and he seems to be "good to go" directly before week 1, I think he may well be a steal in drafts. But there is a bunch of risk coming with him now, and I think we are right at that point of "if this injury lingers or he seems slowed" then he may well have to carry the strong injury risk  tag the rest of his career.  I don't know I am willing to own this guy at this point, until some glowing reports start coming out.

 I think Jeremy Maclin showed last season that he should be a top 25 guy. He certainly has the talent. The only thing holding him back is the offense and Alex Smith. Note his best run of numbers were in the last 5-6 weeks of the season.  I don't know I would be overly excited with him as my WR2 week in and week out, but by years end he should give solid production.

Emmanuel Sanders is likely to be another one on my "do not draft" list. The QB play is still unknown right? The one that I want to own in Denver is DT if I go that route, and I think its looking more and more like they will try and run the ball a bunch. That makes me more interested in C.J. Anderson.

I was high on Jordan Matthews last season, but I don't know that I will be this year.  He looked downright awful in a few games, and seemed to be dropping passes at the wrong times. I suppose thats a double edged sword, where you could also argue "had he caught a handful of those and snagged a couple more TD's, then that could have been a monster breakout season". I get it. But that team looks to be in a bit of turmoil and I don't quite know what will happen with the QB scenario. Bradford certainly never looked to be a bastion of health in his career, and I am definitely not interested in Matthews if Wentz will be the QB the majority of the season. At least I won't be interested in Matthews unless I can get him extremely late.

 Michael Crabtree - This guy had a good season last year, and he made me eat a bit of crow. I have had a bad taste in my mouth concerning this guy since the days of his 4 for 47 statlines in San Francisco.  Its widely known now that Amari Cooper was playing hurt last season in a number of games, and I fully believe Cooper is their #1 read and target at all times. I won't be taking any chances on Crabtree anywhere this year.

 I also want to state I am not fully sold on Dez Bryant and Jordy Nelson either.

I said in another thread that we might not ever see the same Dez again. It wouldn't shock me if come December we look back and say...."Well that Dez Bryant was a Hell of a WR for a few years, but he seems to have lost his edge now", and it could actually be for his QB as well, and not just for injury. (it also wouldn't shock me if he posted another top 10 WR finish.........I just won't be acquiring him anywhere)

  Jordy Nelson is sort of in a similar boat as far as I am concerned, but I would be willing to take Jordy in some spots with a bit more faith. As far as I had read, he has been running routes already with no real issues. I'm sure they will ease him into form slowly and it wouldn't surprise me if they held him out of almost all preseason action entirely. So I would rather have him, but I am not ready to fire him up as a round 2 pick either.

 I guess what I'm saying is, are the upper end WR's as deep as the analysts are saying?  I personally don't believe so. Since I play in mostly start 3WR leagues, I like having two absolute go-to elite studs at WR1 and WR2 and try and sniff out value at my WR3. There are just so many in the top 20 I have serious doubts about or concerns this year.

 I tend to draft WR-WR early in my drafts, so I definitely focus on the elite WRs if I can. I just know there are quite a few that finished very high last year that I will be avoiding this year like the plague.

 Now I have a few that weren't a part of the top 20 limelight last season , and I think they have a rightful place there this coming season. Mike Evans, Amari Cooper are two I am very high on this coming season.  Golden Tate  is another.  Will Tate be a top 15-20 WR?  I don't know yet, but I am seemingly higher on him than most of the others I talk to. 

 More on those players later.

 TZM

 

[mikel2014]

Part of the depth is the young players who will likely be in the conversation for top 20 this season. Your list neglected Amari Cooper, Kevin White, Devante Parker, Keenan Allen,  Kelvin Benjamin, T.Y. Hilton, Randall Cobb, Donte Moncrief, Dorial Green-Beckham, Julian Edelman, Breshad Perriman, Tyler Lockett, and Michael Floyd.

That's without even mentioning rookies and more sleeper-type players which would include Corey Coleman, Laquon Treadwell, Josh Doctson, Stefon Diggs, Philip Dorsett, Travis Benjamin, John Brown, Sterling Shepherd, Michael Thomas, Marvin Jones, Nelson Agholor, and Devin Funchess. 

So, yes, I would say depth at WR is not being overstated. 

 

[BoltBacker]

So which WR's do you think will drop oot of the top 20? For instance you mention that you're not convinced Baldwin will repeat last years numbers. Well, he was 7th last year so he could regress pretty far and still be top 20. I don't think you can really make that strong a case that Robinson, Thomas, and Maclin are dropping out.

You mention Evans, Cooper, Tate as risers but I think it's very realistic to expect Bryant, Nelson, Allen, Jeffery, and Benjamin to have better health and most of them will be in the top 20. I also expect a big jump in production from Hilton, Cobb, and Moncrief based on the healthof people around them.Then you have the young guys like Parker/White/Perriman that definitely have a ceiling to break through. Then you have the complimentary players that would likely rise if the #1 receiver did drop off and not crack the top 20 which includes Decker, Floyd/Brown, Crabtree, Sanders, Lockett, and Jones. That's assuming that none of the rookies makes it, and my $ would be on Shepard but the group includes Coleman, Treadwell, Boyd, and Thomas.

Seems like a lot of guys to me.

 

[DropKick]

And what would the RBs look like with the same scrutiny?   Seriously, if you take the "glass half empty" approach with each guy it is a motley crew (crue?).

 

[Snorkelson]

I think Tate will be pretty consistent this year, if not tear it up. Allen should be mentioned in the same area as Dt/ar15, Jeffery as well. 

 

[Evil G]

In simplest terms, I think it's faulty logic. 

The depth at WR comes from the number of players who are startable - or rather, provide comparable scoring to each other, eliminating or shrinking the scoring edge at WR2 and/or WR3 if any one or small clutch of Owners were to have three strong receivers. 

(WR1 in PPR admittedly has a strong top tier on its own, but if you don't even have one single strong WR, then you probably shouldn't be playing this game - another story)

Yet the depth at WR2 and WR3 comes primarily from the evolution of the league, and pass heavy schemes/the rules favoring passing, not necessarily from the players themselves - though a measure of talent always helps.   

There will be depth at WR this year again, even if we cannot easily identify exactly where it is, in May.  

 

[Bracie Smathers]

I looked back at a list from the top 20 or so WRs from last year.

 The names are..

Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, Brandon Marshall, Allen Robinson, Odell Beckham Jr., DeAndre Hopkins, Doug Baldwin, A.J.Green,Eric Decker and Larry Fitzgerald.

The next 10 are Calvin Johnson, Brandin Cooks, Demaryius Thomas, Allen Hurns, Jarvis Landry, Sammy Watkins, Jeremy Maclin, Emmanuel Sanders , Michael Crabtree and Jordan Matthews.

 I got that info from here  http://games.espn.go.com/ffl/leaders?&seasonTotals=true&seasonId=2015&slotCategoryId=4 

 The actual league format and scoring that you personally use or play in obviously matters, but I'm just going to examine the top 20 listed.

Everyone says "WR is super deep", but how deep is it honestly? Now I tend to play in "start 3 WR leagues", which I think is a much better format than the more typical "start 2WR" for a variety of reasons, but I am not looking to argue that here.

 The fact is, exactly how many of the above would you be super happy with going into next season as your two starters?

 I think we all can agree that the super studs/elite are Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, Odell Beckham Jr., DeAndre Hopkins and A.J. Green.

There are another handful I think that are close to "elite status", and this is where many of our opinions start to diverge. (you may think they are more in the super studs category, or maybe a slight bit lower into the "very good" range)  I view these as Allen Robinson and Demaryius Thomas. I tend to think of DT as elite personally, but this is sort of my point.

 No matter how you value the rest of the top 20, there are big uncertainties and issues in each of their cases.




3

League format matters most and you play in a start-3 WR league so you should lead with that statement.  You begin at a different point but your true point is that there are uncertainties but in a start-3 WR league you have to look for consistency and that is always an issue in fantasy football and I'd say it is a huge issue with WRs, consistent production.

I see plenty of depth at the WR position, two young guys that haven't been mentioned yet are DeVante Parker and Kevin White.  I think both will emerge this year and at least two of the rookies will perform 'ok' but year 2 is when young WRs tend to emerge so I wouldn't bank too heavily on rookie WRs.

WR is deep for start-2 WRs with an Offensive Flex where you can calculate when to spot-start a WR.  In your case, where you play in a forced start-3 WR league then you will always have inconsistent WR production and from your POV you don't see the depth that others who play in start-2 leagues see.

 

[TZMarkie]

Part of the depth is the young players who will likely be in the conversation for top 20 this season. Your list neglected Amari Cooper, Kevin White, Devante Parker, Keenan Allen,  Kelvin Benjamin, T.Y. Hilton, Randall Cobb, Donte Moncrief, Dorial Green-Beckham, Julian Edelman, Breshad Perriman, Tyler Lockett, and Michael Floyd.

 My "list" was essentially the top 20 from last year. The "super studs" I listed were ones we basically all see as a lock for top 20 again next year. A number of the ones you listed are definitely among the ones I think have a great chance of threatening the top 20, but I purposefully avoided listing several to see which ones many of you other posters would chime in with.

So which WR's do you think will drop oot of the top 20? For instance you mention that you're not convinced Baldwin will repeat last years numbers. Well, he was 7th last year so he could regress pretty far and still be top 20. I don't think you can really make that strong a case that Robinson, Thomas, and Maclin are dropping out.

You mention Evans, Cooper, Tate as risers but I think it's very realistic to expect Bryant, Nelson, Allen, Jeffery, and Benjamin to have better health and most of them will be in the top 20. I also expect a big jump in production from Hilton, Cobb, and Moncrief based on the healthof people around them.Then you have the young guys like Parker/White/Perriman that definitely have a ceiling to break through. Then you have the complimentary players that would likely rise if the #1 receiver did drop off and not crack the top 20 which includes Decker, Floyd/Brown, Crabtree, Sanders, Lockett, and Jones. That's assuming that none of the rookies makes it, and my $ would be on Shepard but the group includes Coleman, Treadwell, Boyd, and Thomas.

Seems like a lot of guys to me.

I never said I thought that Robinson, Thomas and Maclin are dropping out, rather I think all three should return, with Maclin being the one I am most nervous about. I think Robinson and DT are virtually "elite status", or very close.

 But I did mention several reasons as to why many of that listed 20 should not make it back, and I fully expect a number of them to drop out.  I will be avoiding a number of those players as I said above.

 Like, its highly unlikely but if I could ever get such a bet down, I would be looking to bet a large amount of money that the New York Jets do NOT have 2 WR's in the top 20 in 2016. Sure there is a good chance that either Decker or Marshall sneak back into the top 20, I have serious doubt that we see both there again inside the top 20.

 Others that I believe do not crack the top 20 (even though I may not have spelled it out plainly) are Crabtree, Hurns,Baldwin,Larry Fitzgerald, Emmanuel Sanders. Calvin Johnson is an obvious absence from the 2016 top 20.

Keenan Allen- Has a number of red flags. Health may be an issue, though I wouldn't necessarily put that label on him quite yet.  When you look at last year, its almost as if the seas parted for him to have a big year no matter what. The injuries were massive and plentiful. Its as if the whole team was breaking down, and that included Gates which many people overlook when they go over the injuries. Melvin Gordon sputtered as well.  Don't get me wrong, I think if he stays healthy I believe he is almost a shoo-in to make the top 20, but the team as a whole should be healthier as a whole. Obviously, injury eventually cut him short as well.

 You mention "Bryant", I am assuming you mean Martavis Bryant?  He is currently suspended for a minimum of one season, unless something has changed that I don't know about or have forgotten. I do agree with you in that you pointed out a few others that I am expecting a big season from too, like Hilton/Moncrief. One of those should definitely vault up into the top 20. In fact I think Moncrief may be one of the steals of the drafts as the season approaches. The turf toe operation worried me a bit, but he should be good to go as the season approaches.

 I agree that Kevin White has the talent to possibly make the top 20, but there is just no way I am drafting him as such when he has done essentially nothing in the NFL thusfar. The rookies you mentioned aren't nearly as high end a class as they were a few years ago, but I suppose its still possible for one to sneak his way into the top 20.

 Corey Coleman may well have the opportunity through sheer volume alone but again, its not a situation I am drafting like that.

League format matters most and you play in a start-3 WR league so you should lead with that statement.  You begin at a different point but your true point is that there are uncertainties but in a start-3 WR league you have to look for consistency and that is always an issue in fantasy football and I'd say it is a huge issue with WRs, consistent production.

I see plenty of depth at the WR position, two young guys that haven't been mentioned yet are DeVante Parker and Kevin White.  I think both will emerge this year and at least two of the rookies will perform 'ok' but year 2 is when young WRs tend to emerge so I wouldn't bank too heavily on rookie WRs.

WR is deep for start-2 WRs with an Offensive Flex where you can calculate when to spot-start a WR.  In your case, where you play in a forced start-3 WR league then you will always have inconsistent WR production and from your POV you don't see the depth that others who play in start-2 leagues see.

I mentioned Kevin White above.

DeVante Parker- I owned him last year in one league, and I kept waiting for the breakout to happen. I think the scenario is right and he could well be "the man" in Miami. It certainly looks like they brought him in and were grooming him for that "A.J. Green- type leader WR role". I think its yet to be seen exactly how much volume they want him to have, and thats the main reason I am a little gun shy about acquiring him everywhere.

 Maybe I should have been a little more clear in my original post.

 I think there is obviously depth there, but I just think we have a large number of the top 20 that will not return this year for a variety of reasons.

 TZM

 

[Bracie Smathers]

DeVante Parker- I owned him last year in one league, and I kept waiting for the breakout to happen. I think the scenario is right and he could well be "the man" in Miami. It certainly looks like they brought him in and were grooming him for that "A.J. Green- type leader WR role". I think its yet to be seen exactly how much volume they want him to have, and thats the main reason I am a little gun shy about acquiring him everywhere.

 Maybe I should have been a little more clear in my original post.

 I think there is obviously depth there, but I just think we have a large number of the top 20 that will not return this year for a variety of reasons.




 




1

I like DeVante for what he did the last six games.  

In the first ten games, DeVante Parker produced

• 4 receptions
  
• 49 yards
  
• 0 TDs
  

Over the last six games, DeVante Parker produced:

• 22 receptions
  
• 445 yards
  
• 3 TDs
  

I like how he started to emerge late last year.  I liked him in predraft and how he looked in mini camp before he got injured.  Adding it all up, I think he is a solid candidate to emerge this year.

To your second point, I see more variability at the RB position year-to-year than at WR but I don't play in a start-3 WR league where you would need an extra 12 WRs in a standard 12 team league.  I invested heavily at the WR position over the last two years and like the long term stability that WRs provide over RBs so from my POV I like the depth and from the young WR crop that the draft has produced over the past two years, guys like Odell Beckem Jr., Mike Evans, Amari Cooper, Allen Robinson, Sammy Watkins, Brandin Cooks, etc. that we will see relatively consistent production.  

I don't know if you were referring to older/veteran WRs who finished atop the fantasy football production lists but of the young WRs I feel confident that we will see 'relatively' consistent  production from the 2nd and 3rd year WRs. 

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I agree that it's faulty logic.  You're just overscrutinizing players.  You could do this with any player, any position.  Every player has questionmarks.  The WRs have less.

You're not comfortable with Emmanuel Sanders as a starter because he's getting a new QB?  Ok, he's the #33 ranked WR.  The #33 ranked RB is Charles Sims.  How comfortable are you starting him?  He's a backup RB on his own team.

There are going to be 3 or 4 fantasy teams with an elite running back.  Every fantasy team has an elite WR.  You got Allen Robinson?  Great!  He's a great player, but he's not really providing you any kind of weekly advantage.  He's just another guy in a massive tier of WR1's that are every bit as likely to outscore him as be outscored by him.  Dropping from WR3 to WR15 drops you from Julio to Sammy Watkins, arguably a lateral change by the time the season hits stride.  Dropping from RB3 to RB15 is Adrian Peterson to CJ Anderson...

You mention a WR like Davante Parker who was only strong down the stretch and still has a lot of question marks.  Ok, that's pretty reasonable for WR29.  At RB, the same thing makes you RB4 (David Johnson).

6 out of the top 10 ranked RBs for redraft this year didn't even rush for 1,000 yards last year.  How's that for question marks?

Yeah, there's going to be some turnover in the top 20.  There always is, at every position.  A lot of those guys dropping out though are still going to be useful fantasy players.  Dropping out of the top 20 isn't really a huge penalty when you're dropping out because lots of players are playing well, rather than because your guy is playing poorly.  A RB drops out of the top 20 because he gets benched and runs for 350 yards on the season.  A WR drops out because his good stats are matched by three dozen other guys also putting up good stats.

Also I'm not sure where the idea that "wait on a QB" is a "hot new topic" came from.  That has been at least the main talking point around QBs, and probably the consensus, for some 20 odd years now.

 

[TZMarkie]

To your second point, I see more variability at the RB position year-to-year than at WR but I don't play in a start-3 WR league where you would need an extra 12 WRs in a standard 12 team league.  I invested heavily at the WR position over the last two years and like the long term stability that WRs provide over RBs so from my POV I like the depth and from the young WR crop that the draft has produced over the past two years, guys like Odell Beckem Jr., Mike Evans, Amari Cooper, Allen Robinson, Sammy Watkins, Brandin Cooks, etc. that we will see relatively consistent production.  

I don't know if you were referring to older/veteran WRs who finished atop the fantasy football production lists but of the young WRs I feel confident that we will see 'relatively' consistent  production from the 2nd and 3rd year WRs. 

 I agree with what you seem to be saying on Parker in Miami.

 I also wholeheartedly agree about the RBs being a much less stable position. That is sort of my point.

 Many of us have had that mindset in that the top end WRs are more consistent than the RBs, and the RBs seem to be more injury prone to boot. Much more turnover in past seasons at the top of the RBs compared to the WR position.

 But this leads back to what I think the thrust of my post truly is, in that this season the depth near the top end of the WRs  is more in flux that what it has seemed like in years past.

 It could well be just me and my thought train on a handful of WRs and their scenarios in the top 20.  But looking it over as a whole, it seems safe to say that at least 1/3rd of the top 20 last year will not be in the top 20 this year. In fact, there is a good chance that HALF or more of the 2015 top 20 will not fall into the top 20 next year.

 Couple all this with a growing portion of the fantasy community leaning towards going WR-WR or a "take WRs early" strategy, and its making the truly elite WRs much more valuable in my opinion.

 TZM

 

[FreeBaGeL]

 But this leads back to what I think the thrust of my post truly is, in that this season the depth near the top end of the WRs  is more in flux that what it has seemed like in years past.

 It could well be just me and my thought train on a handful of WRs and their scenarios in the top 20.  But looking it over as a whole, it seems safe to say that at least 1/3rd of the top 20 last year will not be in the top 20 this year. In fact, there is a good chance that HALF or more of the 2015 top 20 will not fall into the top 20 next year.

12 of the top 20 WRs from 2014 finished outside the top 20 in 2015.

Your perception on how this works is totally warped, and it is misleading your understanding of what "deep" means.

 

[TZMarkie]

8 of the top 20 WRs from 2014 finished in the top 20 in 2015.

Your perception on how this works is totally warped, and it is totally misleading your understanding of what "deep" means.

 I do not have the desire to go back for the last 20 years and look at year over year turnover from top 20 to the next top 20 at WR, but I appreciate you looking over 2014-2015.

 It seems to me that this season there seems to be a fair bit of the top 20, that just won't be finishing in that upper top 20 tier as they did last year. More than in years past, or at least it seems that way.

 In fact it looks as if  half (or even more) of that number won't repeat again.

 But if you want to go back and compile the last 20 years worth of data to try and prove me wrong (or *gasp* I'm off by 10%) then I'm all ears and more than willing to think about this in a different light.

 In fact, this is just making me think that acquiring 2 of the top 8-10 is a bigger advantage than I once thought.

 TZM

 

[tone1oc]

The depth at WR is overblown.. Sure you could make a very compelling case for Odell Beckham, Antonio Brown, Deandre Hopkins, Julio Jones, Allen Robinson, Amari Cooper, Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, Dez Bryant, Alshon Jeffrey, AJ Green, Keenan Allen, Brandin Cooks, Demaryius Thomas, Randall Cobb, Jordy Nelson, Jarvis Landry, Devante Parker, TY Hilton, Kelvin Benjamin, Jeremy Maclin, Brandon Marshall, Julian Edelman, Doug Baldwin, Emmanuel Sanders and Larry Fitzgerald putting up WR1 production, but after the 25 player WR1 pool,  you'd only be left with guys like Golden Tate, Stefon Diggs, Eric Decker, Michael Floyd, Allen Hurns, John Brown, Jordan Matthews, Donte Moncrief, Kevin White, DGB, Tyler Lockett, Willie Snead, Treadwell, Coleman and Doctson to start at WR3. 

 

[mikel2014]

TZM I think the discussion boils down to a difference in perception on what depth is. You are arguing that turnover in the top 20 shows a "lack of depth". It isn't really a logical conclusion when you see the whole picture. 

Most people would view 40+ candidates of top 20 as "wow there are a lot of quality receivers". 

 

[BoltBacker]

 You mention "Bryant", I am assuming you mean Martavis Bryant?  He is currently suspended for a minimum of one season, unless something has changed that I don't know about or have forgotten.

No, I mean Dez Bryant, the Dallas Cowboy wide receiver that has made the top 20 foir of the last five years, missing that mark last year due to injury.

So of the group Bryant, Nelson, Jeffery, Allen, and Benjamin.... how many of those do you expect to crack the top 20? None of those guys did last year and I wouldnt be surprised if they all did this year. That's a quarter of the list right there unless you are expecting major injuries from them in back to back seasons.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

I also wholeheartedly agree about the RBs being a much less stable position. That is sort of my point.

 Many of us have had that mindset in that the top end WRs are more consistent than the RBs, and the RBs seem to be more injury prone to boot. Much more turnover in past seasons at the top of the RBs compared to the WR position.

 But this leads back to what I think the thrust of my post truly is, in that this season the depth near the top end of the WRs  is more in flux that what it has seemed like in years past.

 It could well be just me and my thought train on a handful of WRs and their scenarios in the top 20.  But looking it over as a whole, it seems safe to say that at least 1/3rd of the top 20 last year will not be in the top 20 this year. In fact, there is a good chance that HALF or more of the 2015 top 20 will not fall into the top 20 next year.

 Couple all this with a growing portion of the fantasy community leaning towards going WR-WR or a "take WRs early" strategy, and its making the truly elite WRs much more valuable in my opinion.




 

When you boil it down to stating that 'this season' the depth near the top is more in flux, I can agree with the caveat that the reason is due to the unprecedented influx of young WRs that we saw come into the league over the past two years.  

How about we boil it down even further and put a fine point on it by saying:

Anyone who loaded up on 'young-rookie WRs' over the past two years had the chance to exceed production expectations but now, what would have been seen as undervalued rookie or young unproven WRs in the past two drafts have gained in pre-fantasy draft status to the point they are no longer bargains.  So, if people are still targeting those same WRs and paying a premium then going WR-WR may not provide as high of a rate of a return.  

I don't play start-3 WR so I don't know which draft strategies have been most successful in the past or what the consensus is heading into this year's fantasy drafts for that fantasy format but for standard start-2 WR formats and after having invested heavily in the young WRs over the past two years, I personally don't see a depth issue.

 

[massraider]

If the question is depth,  why are we talking about the top 20?

 

[TZMarkie]

No, I mean Dez Bryant, the Dallas Cowboy wide receiver that has made the top 20 foir of the last five years, missing that mark last year due to injury.

So of the group Bryant, Nelson, Jeffery, Allen, and Benjamin.... how many of those do you expect to crack the top 20? None of those guys did last year and I wouldnt be surprised if they all did this year. That's a quarter of the list right there unless you are expecting major injuries from them in back to back seasons.

I'd say there is a good chance that 3 of these 5 crack the top 20.

 I think 2 of the 5 likely will still have other issues or injuries that help keep them out of the top 20.

 I stated in other threads I have serious doubt about Dez Bryant coming back and being what he has been.  Others with similar injuries haven't always came back the next season with their foot right on the gas pedal so to speak, and even if he is close, the health of Tony Romo is a big part of his production. Its a wide range of outcomes for him in my book. He could well be top 5 next year, or he could be a step slower and never be the same again, who knows. I've said it before and I will say it again, "He may very well blow up this year, but he won't blow up on any of my teams". His asking price is too high for the inherent risk at this stage.

 I don't necessarily automatically slot in Kelvin Benjamin as a top 20 WR, and I was fairly high on him back to 2014. He had a fairly high number of TDs  (9 I think?) and I try not to expect too much from Panther WRs for obvious reasons.

 I forget the exact quote, but Matt Forte called out Alshon Jeffrey when several of the team players were talking about offseason workouts. It was something to the effect of "The programs work if you actually do them" or something along those lines. His extended missed time last season was a worry.

I'm not necessarily trying to blow a hole in the talent of the above mentioned group of players, but each one has their injury concerns at this point. The odds of every one being healthy enough (and getting the supporting help) to finish in the top 20 I would think is a longshot. There are a bunch of factors with those players in specific. If I had to pick one, I would think that Nelson is the safest bet at this point.

 TZM

 

[Pedro Cerrano Fan]

If the question is depth,  why are we talking about the top 20?

Because we won't even have a top 20 next year.  11-14 tops.

 

[Run It Up]

Those bottom ten you listed were top 10 WRs at random points throughout the season. Baldwin to me is the only outlier on that list.

 

[cockroach]

  You mention "Bryant", I am assuming you mean Martavis Bryant?  He is currently suspended for a minimum of one season, unless something has changed that I don't know about or have forgotten. I do agree with you in that you pointed out a few others that I am expecting a big season from too, like Hilton/Moncrief. One of those should definitely vault up into the top 20. In fact I think Moncrief may be one of the steals of the drafts as the season approaches. The turf toe operation worried me a bit, but he should be good to go as the season approaches.

Prob Dez.

 

[Captain Cranks]

Is the "TZM" thing an obsessive compulsion?  Honest question.  

 

[DropKick]

TZM I think the discussion boils down to a difference in perception on what depth is. You are arguing that turnover in the top 20 shows a "lack of depth". It isn't really a logical conclusion when you see the whole picture. 

Most people would view 40+ candidates of top 20 as "wow there are a lot of quality receivers". 

This.

 

[TZMarkie]

TZM I think the discussion boils down to a difference in perception on what depth is. You are arguing that turnover in the top 20 shows a "lack of depth". It isn't really a logical conclusion when you see the whole picture. 

Most people would view 40+ candidates of top 20 as "wow there are a lot of quality receivers". 

 I get what you are saying, but then again this "depth" that everyone is mentioning isn't "depth" I am looking to have on my fantasy team either.

 What I didn't spell out to the letter, is in my opinion, there is lack of depth at the top of the WR pool. Ones I am looking to draft and have shares of. Fewer names I would be happy with to roll out as my WR1 and WR2 week in and week out.

 In years past I may have been happy with say any 2-3 of the prior years top 20, and  the number of guys I want out of last years top 20 is much, much smaller.

 There are so many names out of that list that I want no part of. There just seems to be injury baggage with a large number of the  top 20 this year compared to what it is typically....but again I don't tend to draft a bunch of injury risk if I can draft around it.

 Certainly this is my perception, and it doesn't mean its a popular viewpoint. It just seems to me that many owners are going to be let down by a bunch of last years top end wideouts  in December this year.

 TZM

 

[steelers1080]

I don't understand the huge turn on Dez this year.  Last August, less than 1 year ago, he was being drafted #1 overall in dynasty startups.  #1 overall.  Now there's analysts and fans alike saying he's done.  He had a foot injury, had surgery, and was rushed back too soon.  All accounts say that he's back at 100% and is primed for a great season.  Last year he was injured and missed many games or was a partial participant.  Prior to last year he had seasons of 1380 yards 12 TDs, 1200 yards 13 TDs, 1300 yards 16 TDs.  There is no reason to assume that he won't be able to rebound.  It's not as if he's crossed the dreaded 30 year old mark.  He's 27 and will turn 28 in November, he's got plenty of football ahead of him.

I think one season of injury has made everyone skittish/made them forget what a beast he is.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

I don't understand the huge turn on Dez this year.  Last August, less than 1 year ago, he was being drafted #1 overall in dynasty startups.  #1 overall.  Now there's analysts and fans alike saying he's done.  He had a foot injury, had surgery, and was rushed back too soon.  All accounts say that he's back at 100% and is primed for a great season.  Last year he was injured and missed many games or was a partial participant.  Prior to last year he had seasons of 1380 yards 12 TDs, 1200 yards 13 TDs, 1300 yards 16 TDs.  There is no reason to assume that he won't be able to rebound.  It's not as if he's crossed the dreaded 30 year old mark.  He's 27 and will turn 28 in November, he's got plenty of football ahead of him.

I think one season of injury has made everyone skittish/made them forget what a beast he is.

I had him 5/6 at WR last year.  Didn't see any leagues where he was #1 overall.

 

[steelers1080]

I had him 5/6 at WR last year.  Didn't see any leagues where he was #1 overall.

I was mainly basing it off a handful of dynasty rankings that compiled Dynasty ADPs from several sites.  I would say he was going at least in the top 5 in many leagues.  It was him, Julio, AB, OBJ, and Bell in most startups I saw.  I just don't think that one year of injuries, which is by all accounts behind him, is enough to drop him into the late teens or lower (which is where he appears to be).

 

[Bracie Smathers]

I don't understand the huge turn on Dez this year.  Last August, less than 1 year ago, he was being drafted #1 overall in dynasty startups.  #1 overall.  Now there's analysts and fans alike saying he's done.  He had a foot injury, had surgery, and was rushed back too soon.  All accounts say that he's back at 100% and is primed for a great season.  Last year he was injured and missed many games or was a partial participant.  Prior to last year he had seasons of 1380 yards 12 TDs, 1200 yards 13 TDs, 1300 yards 16 TDs.  There is no reason to assume that he won't be able to rebound.  It's not as if he's crossed the dreaded 30 year old mark.  He's 27 and will turn 28 in November, he's got plenty of football ahead of him.

I think one season of injury has made everyone skittish/made them forget what a beast he is.




 

I thought Dez was overvalued leading up to pre-fantasy drafts last year.

I recently heard some of Dr. Jene's comments pertaining to the injury history of Dez.  It may have been in last week's On the Couch podcast or the Audible but Dr. Jene was asked about injuries that would cause concern, he mentioned a specific injury that Dez had/has and that is something to carefully watch.  Sorry I don't remember exactly where I heard this but I am passing it along because it seemed like a significant red flag that could hamper him.

 

[Sabertooth]

On my dynasty team, I look at the WR position and see potential stars everywhere...

AJ Green
Dez
Mike Evans
Edelman
Agholor
Dorsett
Smelter
Travis Benjamin
Jalen Strong
 

But based on trade responses, nobody values any of these players.  You have young studs, middle aged studs, aging studs, recent NFL first rounders, solid vets, and a guy with gigantic hands on a team with no ball catchers.  My point is that of all these different fits for fantasy teams, I am getting zilch in response.  I think the position is diluted right now.  

 

[Sabertooth]

I thought Dez was overvalued leading up to pre-fantasy drafts last year.

I recently heard some of Dr. Jene's comments pertaining to the injury history of Dez.  It may have been in last week's On the Couch podcast or the Audible but Dr. Jene was asked about injuries that would cause concern, he mentioned a specific injury that Dez had/has and that is something to carefully watch.  Sorry I don't remember exactly where I heard this but I am passing it along because it seemed like a significant red flag that could hamper him.

I was mainly basing it off a handful of dynasty rankings that compiled Dynasty ADPs from several sites.  I would say he was going at least in the top 5 in many leagues.  It was him, Julio, AB, OBJ, and Bell in most startups I saw.  I just don't think that one year of injuries, which is by all accounts behind him, is enough to drop him into the late teens or lower (which is where he appears to be).

Dez is a value.  Worth every bit as much as Antonio Brown, but a fraction of the cost.   People have very short memories.  Dez isn't the shiny penny right now, which means you should be going after him.   If he puts up 6-135-2 in week one, his value is fully restored.  Everyone instantly forgets last year.  

 

[Shutout]

I thought Dez was overvalued leading up to pre-fantasy drafts last year.

I recently heard some of Dr. Jene's comments pertaining to the injury history of Dez.  It may have been in last week's On the Couch podcast or the Audible but Dr. Jene was asked about injuries that would cause concern, he mentioned a specific injury that Dez had/has and that is something to carefully watch.  Sorry I don't remember exactly where I heard this but I am passing it along because it seemed like a significant red flag that could hamper him.

It's easy to say a guy that was being forecast as a possible #1 overall is over valued, especially when that player got injured but the reality of it is there are almost a "known" group of a couple of guys that people say are the #1's and then it is natural for people to try to build a case for how guy "x" is going to bump Brown, is going to bump Calvin, OBJ, etc". 

In my opinion and just my opinion, we as viewers saw WAY too much of the absolute ugliest scenario that could have been for Dallas last year. It was like a car wreck that you can't turn your head from and the Cowboys get a LOT of media attention and play a lot of prime timers. So it stuck in our head real good.  But I'm pretty sure had the Cowboys stayed healthy, Dez was going to have a MONSTER year last year.  He may never catch 150 or 2000 but those tow stats are always going to be "better than most" and he's one of the few guys who consistently threatens to put up TDs in the 14-18 range. That is massive in ff.

 

[Shutout]

On my dynasty team, I look at the WR position and see potential stars everywhere...

AJ Green
Dez
Mike Evans
Edelman
Agholor
Dorsett
Smelter
Travis Benjamin
Jalen Strong
 

But based on trade responses, nobody values any of these players.  You have young studs, middle aged studs, aging studs, recent NFL first rounders, solid vets, and a guy with gigantic hands on a team with no ball catchers.  My point is that of all these different fits for fantasy teams, I am getting zilch in response.  I think the position is diluted right now.  

supply and demand.  General perception is there are lots of fungible WRs so when owners naturally value them high (hey, this is freaking AJ Green here), and buyers see substitutable goods, they pass. Especially when AJ Green is "boring". He's great but he's boring cause he's not 24 and he's EXPECTED to just ho hum his way to another great season.

But the silver lining in this is if you stick to your guns and demand fair trade prices, there's a very good chance you'll be okay because every year a lot of these hot and hyped guys just don't pan out. And guys get hurt, and rookies and super young guys bust.  And it's then that your boring yet old reliable known guys are suddenly drawing a lot more interest from a team that thinks they are "one player away".

 

[steelers1080]

AJ Green reminds me of Roddy White back in the day.  People like him, but no one is like YEAH! I got Roddy White!  They were all nuts about Calvin or another hot WR.  He's not the buzz, but he's a solid top 5/top 10 year after year.

 

[Biabreakable]

Here are some numbers looking at a 3 year average (seasons 2011-2013) of the points scored at the RB/WR/TE 1 (top 12) RB/WR/TE 2 (13-24) RB/WR/TE 3 (25-36) and so on. Those numbers:

Baselines for points for standard leagues 

total points and points per game using a 3 year average:

Quarterback 12 301.98 18.9
Quarterback 24 211.52 13.2
Quarterback 36 98.1 6.1

Running back 12 183.27 11.5
Running back 24 137.7  8.6   (132.25 last 2 seasons 8.27 )
Running back 36 98.2  6.1
Running back 48 74.8 4.7
Running back 60 53.6 3.4
Running back 72 37.7  2.4
Running back 84 28 1.75

Wide receiver 12 167.67   10.5
Wide receiver 24 130.03   8.1
Wide receiver 36 110.36   6.9
Wide receiver 48 95.63   6
Wide receiver 60 77.46   4.8
Wide receiver 72 61.82 3.9
Wide receiver 84 51.9 3.2
Wide receiver 96 44 2.75

Tight end 12 95.4 5.9
Tight end 24 68.2 4.3
Tight end 36 45.5 2.9
 
 
Worst starter baseline is
Quarterback 212 points
Running back 98 points
Wide receiver 96 points
Tight end 68 points
 
 
Baselines for points for receptions leagues

total points and points per game using a 3 year average:

Quarterback 12 301.98 18.9
Quarterback 24 211.52 13.2
Quarterback 36 98.1 6.1

Running back 12  223.7 14.6
Running back 24 166.7 10.4
Running back 36 124.93 7.8
Running back 48 94.4 5.9
Running back 60 67.2 4.2
Running back 72 51.2 3.2
Running back 84 38.2 2.4

Wide receiver 12  253.9 15.9
Wide receiver 24 197.93 12.4
Wide receiver 36  164.66 10.3
Wide receiver 48  145.1 3 9.0
Wide receiver 60  119.2 7.4
Wide receiver 72  98.3 6.1
Wide receiver 84 79.9 5
Wide receiver 96 65.9 4.1

Tight end 12 155.3 9.7
Tight end 24 106.4 6.7
Tight end 36 70 4.4
Tight end 48 42.8 2.7

Worst starter baseline is
Quarterback 212 points
Running back 125 points
Wide receiver 145 points
Tight end 70 points
 

WR 48 scores similar total points to RB 36 in standard scoring leagues. WR 60 scores more than RB 48 does. 

WR 36 scores similar total points to RB 24 in PPR scoring leagues. WR 48 scores more than RB 36 and so on. WR 72 scores similar to RB 48.

The NFL set a new record for total passing attempts last season, so this is likely shifting further towards the WR until some teams decide to run the ball more than they have been, and some better RB come into the league to cause them to want to.

You want as many top 50 WR as you can get. The depth doesn't matter as much if you only have to start 2 WR.

 

[Borden]

This where the math comes in and smarter people than I show up.

What is the variance of WR scoring year over year? RB variance? I'm assuming WR is more stable but how much is it really? How often does WR ADP reflect final standings vs RB ADP and final standings? This I'm guessing would give us a probability of ADP success. Then factor in cost (ADP) by production (PPG) by probability and we should have a formula for general positional (both NFL positions and fantasy draft positions) that we could then use and adapt to yearly projections. 

It seems basically like VBD? *The term "VBD" gets used around here so loosely that I'm not sure what it means anymore.*

 

[Tau837]

I was mainly basing it off a handful of dynasty rankings that compiled Dynasty ADPs from several sites.  I would say he was going at least in the top 5 in many leagues.  It was him, Julio, AB, OBJ, and Bell in most startups I saw.  I just don't think that one year of injuries, which is by all accounts behind him, is enough to drop him into the late teens or lower (which is where he appears to be).

Dez's consensus dynasty ranking by FBG staffers last year was about WR3. What happened since then?

• Dez had a down season due to injury to him and Romo. Dez will be almost 28 when the season starts. Romo will be 36.5 when the season starts, and seems a bit brittle at this point.
  
• Cooper was drafted with high expectations and had a strong rookie season, with 72/1070/6. He is playing with a good young QB and will be 22 when the 2016 season starts.
  
• Hopkins had a monster 111/1521/11 season with poor QB play. Now he may have an improved QB situation, and he will be 24 when the 2016 season starts.
  
• Robinson had a monster 80/1400/14 season. He is playing with a good young QB and will be 23 when the 2016 season starts.
  
• Brown had a monster 136/1834/10 season, finishing as WR1 for the second straight season. He will be 28 when the season starts, about 6 months older than Dez, and he also has an older QB who should be viewed as an injury risk. But Roethlisberger is younger than Romo, and Brown is coming off two straight monster seasons, unlike Dez.
  

It's really not hard to see how Dez has slipped from consensus WR3 to about consensus WR8 in the past year. I own Dez in one league, and I certainly hope he has a strong rebound year. If he does, I will probably try to move him while I can (hopefully) still get good value.

By the way, some of the info here helps explain the surge in "depth" at WR over the past year.

 

[steelers1080]

Valid points.  I do think that Cooper and Hopkins build on strong years, but I think Robinson might come down a bit.  He scored a lot in junk time last year, and if the Jags defense is a bit better they might run more in the 4th quarter instead of throwing it all over the place.

Brown will be a beast as long as he and Ben stay healthy, but I worry about those Bengal games.  They tend to injure high profile Steelers every time and it could get ugly again this year.

 

[jmo87usc]

Personally, when I say wr is a "deep" position, I am referring to how easy it is to find replacement points on waivers or through low level trades any given week.  QB is the hardest (due to number of weekly NFL contributors vs number of those contributors who are rostered in my leaguue), TE is the second hardest, RB is third hardest and WR is easiest.

We only start 1 QB qnd 1 TE so I'm usually not scrambling to find points at those positions because I've already secured enough depth to get by.  I find myself scrambling more frequently for RB and WR every year because of injury and bye weeks.  It's much easier and cheaper to find usable points at WR  than it is to find RB.  Therefore, I stock up on RB earlier in the draft and grab a bunch of WRs toward the end.  

There seems to always be a WR I can grab off of waivers to get by when needed.  Can't really say that about any other position with as much certainty.  It really has to do with the fact that teams are throwing more, and fielding 4-5 WRs each game.  There are literally over 100 WRs who are capable of putting up 10 or more points any given week.  There is nowhere near as many at any other position.  The doenside though, is you have to be good at "scouting" those players, and really lucky, because there is no consistency.