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The Dynasty Manager’s Rookie Draft Hall of Yikes (1 Viewer)

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
As with every year, as we approach draft season, there’s so much talk of which players have what sort of upside, and once the combine & draft happen valuation/expectation will shift dramatically.

And as with every year, we, individually &  collectively will completely blow it with some players. Maybe not Mel Kuiper’s Ryan Leaf over Peyton Manning level of blow it, but there will undoubtedly be some swings & misses.

To avoid future mistakes, sometimes it’s helpful to look to the past.

In that light, 2 questions:

1. Who were your top (up to 5) dynasty 1st round pick blunders from seasons past? Why did you rate them so highly, and how badly did you miss? 

2. Which (up to 5) players in the 2022 draft class do you see as a potential NFL bust, and why? 
 

Note 1: I don’t see Ruggs or TLaw as examples. Ruggs circumstance was unforeseen - the talent was certainly there. TLaw could still well prove to be deserving of his 1.01 selection - the jury is way out until the Jags put a competitive roster around him. 

Note 2: No ridicule or judgement here - this is a judgement free zone. 

 

That one guy

Footballguy
I haven’t formed many solid opinions yet, still going through initial prospect of familiarizing myself with general consensus top 30ish players…from a superflex position, I have no idea what to expect so far.  Any chance my mid 1sts (have 7-9) net me solid non-QB positions, especially RB, or trades to next year aren’t looking positive right now

 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
I haven’t formed many solid opinions yet, still going through initial prospect of familiarizing myself with general consensus top 30ish players…from a superflex position, I have no idea what to expect so far.  Any chance my mid 1sts (have 7-9) net me solid non-QB positions, especially RB, or trades to next year aren’t looking positive right now
In Superflex I see a realistic possibility of London, Spiller, Walker & Willis going in that 7-9 range. I have 1.08 in that format, so I have a keen interest there.

I could also see Willis sneaking into the top 6 as the draft hype builds, and depending where he lands. People get kooky for QBs in SF, and there may be 4x 1st rounders. I would be unlikely to take any of them, despite needed a QB. If one of the QBs falls to me, I’m checking the trade market to move down a pick.

There may be reason for excitement about a couple of these guys. At present I’m not sold on Willis, as he’s kind of inaccurate, but the hype is building based on size/arm strength. 

I do like London quite a bit, and he may fall if he tests slow at the combine. I don’t see speed as his best attribute so IMO that’ll create value.

Spiller anywhere past 4-5 seems worth the risk if he lands in a good spot. Walker seems risky for the limited sample size, but he’s another guy who might get a hype boost depending on the landing spot.

Any busts for you in recent years you’d like to share?

 

Mister CIA

Footballguy
The 2016 offers us an interesting case study.  Here is how the first round that year unfolded in my dynasty league and I suspect it's reflective of the vast majority of dynasty drafts that year.  I had the 1.05, 1.07, and 1.12 (and 2.01) in this draft.  How did Doctson, Coleman, and Treadwell fool so many people?

First Round:

  1. Ezekiel Elliot
  2. Josh Doctson
  3. Corey Coleman
  4. Laquon Treadwell
  5. Kenneth Dixon - :bag: All he did was post a 4.8 YPC career average.
  6. Sterling Shepard
  7. Michael Thomas  :bowtie:
  8. Derrick Henry  
  9. Tyler Boyd
  10. Devontae Booker
  11. Will Fuller
  12. C.J. Procise - :bag: Like Dixon above, just could not materialize his talent on the field.
  13. Carson Wentz -  :bag: I thought this was a solid pick for the first two years of his career.


Undrafted:

  1. Tyreek Hill


All in all, 2016 was a terrible draft, but Michael Thomas, Derrick Henry, and Tyreek Hill were all available at a tremendous discount for anyone willing to trade up  - which should have been me, as I traded for the 1.07 and 1.12 a week before our draft (I gave up my 2017 1st as part of the deal).  I had the right idea but bad execution [insert John McKay quote].

 
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Mister CIA

Footballguy
As to *why* I missed on Dixon and Procise, I fell in love with their college highlight reels.  Kenneth Dixon's Louisiana Tech highlights are phenomenol.  Also, he scored 97 touchdowns in four years, which I file under the pretty, pretty good label.

 
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Skipdog77

Footballguy
My worst dynasty blunders would have to include Trent Richardson at #2, and Matt Leinart somewhere in the first round (was probably 12th, since I won the league the year before). 

With that knowledge, no one should ever take my advice on any player, ever. It is a shame that will never wear off. 

 

Mister CIA

Footballguy
One more example.  

2019, N'Keal Harry was the consensus 1.02 in dynasty drafts that season, after Josh Jacobs.  I go on the clock at 1.05 and N'Keal is still there.  My draft prep assumed that he would be gone by the time I picked so I was focused on the likes of DK Metcalf and AJ Brown (I live in MS and I was very familiar with their talent), and Darrell henderson too.  I think Henderson was the player I was leaning into the most as the draft approached.  Anyway,  I let the lofty 1.02 ranking cloud my judgement, thinking there was no way I could pass up that kind of value a the #5 - despite the fact that I was never all that impressed by him to begin with.  Basically, I was dragged down by groupthink.  To be fair, I have benefitted a lot from groupthink over the years too.

 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
As to *why* I missed on Dixon and Procise, I fell in love with their college highlight reels.  Kenneth Dixon's Loisiana Tech highlights are phenomenol.  Also, he scored 97 touchdowns in four years, which I file under the pretty, pretty good label.
Stuff like this is part of my concern with Both Spiller & Walker.  They both have impressive numbers. They both have great looking highlight reels.

But looking at Devy rankings, neither seems to measure up to the 2023 RBs.

that doesn’t mean they can’t be good, especially if they land in a great situation (like Miami) as a lead back with no competition for touches under what’s presumed to Be a run-friendly HC. 

i just fear as we get closer to our rookie drafts, we’ll focus more and more on comparing the 2022 players to each other rather than taking a big picture approach of their true value. That thought is sort of what inspired this topic. 

 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
Took Deshaun Watson 2nd overall in a startup superflex dynasty. The draft wasn't even over before the #### hit the fan. 
See that’s just crap luck. Watson is certainly an outstanding quarterback. He just allegedly has a particular predilection that’s incompatible with polite society. 😳

 

JoeJoe88

Footballguy
As to *why* I missed on Dixon and Procise, I fell in love with their college highlight reels.  Kenneth Dixon's Louisiana Tech highlights are phenomenol.  Also, he scored 97 touchdowns in four years, which I file under the pretty, pretty good label.
I’m with you on Dixon. I still feel like he would’ve had a solid career if not for the suspensions and injuries. He often flashed on the field with the Ravens. 

 

That one guy

Footballguy
One more example.  

2019, N'Keal Harry was the consensus 1.02 in dynasty drafts that season, after Josh Jacobs.  I go on the clock at 1.05 and N'Keal is still there.  My draft prep assumed that he would be gone by the time I picked so I was focused on the likes of DK Metcalf and AJ Brown (I live in MS and I was very familiar with their talent), and Darrell henderson too.  I think Henderson was the player I was leaning into the most as the draft approached.  Anyway,  I let the lofty 1.02 ranking cloud my judgement, thinking there was no way I could pass up that kind of value a the #5 - despite the fact that I was never all that impressed by him to begin with.  Basically, I was dragged down by groupthink.  To be fair, I have benefitted a lot from groupthink over the years too.
One of the worst bad beats in my history of fantasy football was my big $ league with friends, it’s a 10-team/11 keeper format with immensely friendly QB scoring (Josh Allen regular scores 60-70pts/week).  One guy didn’t have his 1st round pick and decided during our live draft to trade Josh Allen to another team for 1.04 when that pick was on the clock.  JJacobs, MSanders, and DMonty were off the board because of equally friendly RB scoring.  He needed a stud WR, had a promising QB to spare, N’Keal Harry was his pick #finalanswer.  He goes to grab grub from kitchen and in that short span the announcement of Andrew Luck, his starting QB, retirement came across ticker on TV.  

 

ghostguy123

Footballguy
I remember some Sankey guy being drafted high basically just because it looked like he would be the starter as a rookie.

He is a prime example of why I mostly overlook situation and go by talent and NFL draft results.

 

Mister CIA

Footballguy
scothawk said:
Kevin Jones still hurts me.
AND Jahvid Best.  Man, what could've been.

ETA: I was in a dynasty start up draft in 2005. I had the 1.02 and selected Kevin Jones, followed by Ocho Cinco, Antonio Gates, Steve Smith, and Carson Palmer. I probably would have steamrolled the league the first few seasons if I had selected Larry Johnson instead of Jones.

 
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Dacomish

Footballguy
The year was 2007....I was enamored with this fella that went by the name of Jamarcus Russell a can't miss prospect from LSU who went #1 overall in the NFL Draft. My QB at the time was Jeff Garcia and I needed a younger player to build around....

I had 1.05 in my IDP league and thought I wouldn't get him, so I traded my 2.05 and 3.05 to move up to 1.03.....after Megatron and ADP were off the board. I could have had M.Lynch, G.Olsen, P.Willis, P. Posluszny, L. Woodley...the list goes on.....yea That's the last time I fell in love with a player and wouldn't look outside the box at all when drafting. I almost gave up on FF after that debacle that season....

 

tangfoot

Living Slackmaster
I took Eric Ebron one pick ahead of Odell Beckham in my rookie draft because I'm originally from Detroit, it was a 1.5 PPR TE premium league, I was short on TE starters and Beckham had a nasty ankle injury.

He went the next pick and the owner who got him hasn't let me forget it.

 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
The year was 2007....I was enamored with this fella that went by the name of Jamarcus Russell a can't miss prospect from LSU who went #1 overall in the NFL Draft.
i was wondering if we’d see this name in here. I should rename this topic in honor of this 1st ballot Hall of Yikes star.

“He can throw 50 yards from his knees!” the scouting reports excitedly said. 

I wondered, “yeah, but how often is that skill useful in the NFL?”

Say what you will, the man liked his sizurrup. 

My QB at the time was Jeff Garcia and I needed a younger player to build around....

I had 1.05 in my IDP league and thought I wouldn't get him, so I traded my 2.05 and 3.05 to move up to 1.03.....after Megatron and ADP were off the board. I could have had M.Lynch, G.Olsen, P.Willis, P. Posluszny, L. Woodley...the list goes on.....yea That's the last time I fell in love with a player and wouldn't look outside the box at all when drafting. I almost gave up on FF after that debacle that season....
Oh man - trading up for Russell. That’s gotta leave a mark. I can tell you’re still not completely over it, and I thank you for sharing this painful memory.

Theres a certain 250 lb QB coming up in 2023, and some are wondering if he’s the next CPep of the next JaMarcus. 🤔 

 

Gally

Footballguy
Thought of another one.  Johnny Football as the 1st QB taken in a SF.  On the bright side I did get QBJ the same draft way late to make up for it.  

 

ghostguy123

Footballguy
The year was 2007....I was enamored with this fella that went by the name of Jamarcus Russell a can't miss prospect from LSU who went #1 overall in the NFL Draft. My QB at the time was Jeff Garcia and I needed a younger player to build around....

I had 1.05 in my IDP league and thought I wouldn't get him, so I traded my 2.05 and 3.05 to move up to 1.03.....after Megatron and ADP were off the board. I could have had M.Lynch, G.Olsen, P.Willis, P. Posluszny, L. Woodley...the list goes on.....yea That's the last time I fell in love with a player and wouldn't look outside the box at all when drafting. I almost gave up on FF after that debacle that season....
It's an invaluable skill to realize that you will be wrong a lot in your player evaluations, and to not get married to players.

 

ghostguy123

Footballguy
I took Eric Ebron one pick ahead of Odell Beckham in my rookie draft because I'm originally from Detroit, it was a 1.5 PPR TE premium league, I was short on TE starters and Beckham had a nasty ankle injury.

He went the next pick and the owner who got him hasn't let me forget it.
FF even highlights this philosophy 10x more than the real NFL, but in rookie drafts DONT DRAFT FOR NEED!!!

 
2013 Startup dynasty draft.   I don't remember the exact pick sequence, but I reached for:

1. Dwayne Bowe.   He'd just signed a fat contract and was the Chiefs only proven option at WR.

2. Aaron Hernandez.  NE was expanding his role and using him in some potentially very exciting ways.

3. Ray Rice.  Solid production and another newly signed fat contract.

There were a couple of other disasters, but I no longer remember who.    I was secretly relieved when the league collapsed a few years later.

 
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menobrown

Footballguy
1. Who were your top (up to 5) dynasty 1st round pick blunders from seasons past? Why did you rate them so highly, and how badly did you miss?


1. Trent Richardson- draft pedigree, three down skillset size from major college program vs top notch comp. Seemed as can't miss as they get. Relative to how high I was on him I  would put him as my biggest miss but the next one might be bigger considering who I passed.

2.  Corey Davis- took him when CMC, Mixon, Dalvin still on board. I really liked his game, draft pedigree, and had a team actually thinner at WR then RB so went with what I thought was BPA.

3.. CEH- book not done on him yet but I'm going to put him here anyway. What makes him so especially grievous is who I took him over. As to why similar to Trent he performed at high level against top comp, I was heavily swayed by the Alabama game. Decent draft pedigree and what I perceived as big time pass catching RB going to one of all time great looking passing offenses.

4. Bishop Sankey- Why? Needed a RB, was never even impressed with him on his college tape, looked like a Gio part two and I talked myself into that being enough.  Took him third overall in what might be greatest WR draft of all time.

5. I'll list this one as it's part trade/bad pick. I actually started ok by picking Bell at 1.2. A well known Steeler's fan was picking 1.3 and also had pick 1.10 so I offered him Bell for 3/10 and he took it. People in the league were sending me messages saying how I fleeced him. I picked Gio Bernard and Johnathan Franklin, the RB out of UCLA whose career was over a few games into it.  I liked Bell but thought a similar prospect and extra pick made sense.

 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
2013 Startup dynasty draft.   I don't remember the exact pick sequence, but I reached for:

1. Dwayne Bowe.   He'd just signed a fat contract and was the Chiefs only proven option at WR.

2. Aaron Hernandez.  NE was expanding his role and using him in some potentially very exciting ways.

3. Ray Rice.  Solid production and another newly signed fat contract.

There were a couple of other disasters, but I no longer remember who.    I was secretly relieved when the league collapsed a few years later.
That draft - yikes. 

 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
5. I'll list this one as it's part trade/bad pick. I actually started ok by picking Bell at 1.2. A well known Steeler's fan was picking 1.3 and also had pick 1.10 so I offered him Bell for 3/10 and he took it. People in the league were sending me messages saying how I fleeced him. I picked Gio Bernard and Johnathan Franklin, the RB out of UCLA whose career was over a few games into it.  I liked Bell but thought a similar prospect and extra pick made sense.


I love the move in the 1st half of this. Getting 3/10 for your 1.02 pick is just a fantastic move, and should not be included in this particular Hall of Yikes resume. A brilliant trade that should be recognized independently. 

Everything else....yikes. 

 

ghostguy123

Footballguy
This year especially I'm evaluating situations/landing spots equally, if not greater than the player himself. 
Fine philosophy in redraft.  Not in dynasty IMO

Situations change.  Coaches, surrounding players......

Now, if the Colts were to draft the first RB off the board in the 1st or 2nd round, obviously something like that would alter the rankings for that player.  However, barring something drastic like that, I am ranking the players on talent and potential even moreso these days give an increase in player movement.

 

rockaction

Footballguy
I'll give you a recent one. Had 1.01 - Trade down for 1,06, 2.04, 2.07, 3.06 because I didn't like CEH at 1.01 and didn't really want Taylor. Wanted Swift. Big mistake there. 

Full IDP League

1.06 Henry Ruggs over J. Jefferson and D'Andre Swift, who fell
2.01 Chase Young over Tee Higgins
2.04 Denzel Mims over Aiyuk
2.07 Bryan Edwards over C. Claypool
3.06 Antonio Gandy-Golden

God, that was an awful draft with just only one thing right about the process. 

:wall:
 

 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
Fine philosophy in redraft.  Not in dynasty IMO

Situations change.  Coaches, surrounding players......

Now, if the Colts were to draft the first RB off the board in the 1st or 2nd round, obviously something like that would alter the rankings for that player.  However, barring something drastic like that, I am ranking the players on talent and potential even moreso these days give an increase in player movement.
This is exactly what I’m talking about though.

also I’m feeling more and more that some NFL teams are run competently & some are not. So for the long term I’m hoping for a competent team in addition to a talented player.

But yes - if one of the consensus top 3 RB goes to the Colts, that might not be a recipe for FF success.  This also might hold true for a team like the Bucs, depending on how they address their QB situation.

Its a data point like any other. 

 

JohnnyU

Footballguy
N’Keal Harry, thank goodness only in one league that is now defunct.  There are others and I’m sure all of us are guilty of it. Who was that Oregon RB a few years ago?  I remember him being drafted high if I’m not mistaken.

 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
There are others and I’m sure all of us are guilty of it. Who was that Oregon RB a few years ago?  I remember him being drafted high if I’m not mistaken.
Marcus Marriota? 

kidding

LaMichael James is the last great Duck RB I recall being a huge bust. 

 

Dacomish

Footballguy
i was wondering if we’d see this name in here. I should rename this topic in honor of this 1st ballot Hall of Yikes star.

“He can throw 50 yards from his knees!” the scouting reports excitedly said. 

I wondered, “yeah, but how often is that skill useful in the NFL?”

Say what you will, the man liked his sizurrup. 

Oh man - trading up for Russell. That’s gotta leave a mark. I can tell you’re still not completely over it, and I thank you for sharing this painful memory.

Theres a certain 250 lb QB coming up in 2023, and some are wondering if he’s the next CPep of the next JaMarcus. 🤔 
Oh the word Jaded comes to mind when I remember back to that trainwreck....but I can look back and laugh now, it only took me 15 years to do so though.....lol! 

 

Lehigh98

Footballguy
While I realize this is Dynasty Rookie Draft related, I cannot help but recall a friend who drafted Eddie George 2 years after he retired....  
Unrelated to the thread but related to your story...  a friend drafted Fred Lane about a month after he was murdered by his wife.  While he had his back to us, about to write the name on the board, the rest of us all looked at each other silently deciding whether to say anything.  Someone finally broke the news and we let him pick again.

 

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