The Eagles WR's (1 Viewer)

[Rovers]

Owning Pinkston in two dynasty leagues, I took a look at the Philly WR's, and wow! The projections and rankings for most of them is about eye level to a toilet bowl. In Mr Dodds' projections, only Brown is expected to break the 500 yard mark. Pinkston doesn't even make the top 75 in the site rankings. Even Lewis and Gaffney are projected to surpass Pinkston.

I'm not saying Pinkston should be anything other than a bye week plug-in, but is he being under rated? He got injured before week one last year, and never played a game, but will reportedly be healthy, and as of now, is one of Philly's two starting WR's, along with Brown.

From 2001 through 2004, Pinkston has averaged 659 yards, 3.5 TD's, and a 15.3 YPR. If he hit his career averages, he'd be top 60. Will Lewis, Avant and Gaffney really see that much playing time? LJ Smith will get his share, but he has proven to be something less than durable.

I think the Eagles' wide outs have a bit of a chip on their collective shoulders, and want to show the world they can win without Owens. I think both Brown and Pinkston will surpass expectations, especially Pinkston. Is this wishful thinking on my part? Why is Pinkston being ranked so low? If McNabb lives up to his projections, that's 22 TD passes. If that holds, can a starting WR only score twice, and get less than 400 yards on the season? Is Pinkston's injury holding his projections down?

 

[ShotGunStyle]

I have to agree with you. I don't think he's going to be a fantasy starter, but he'll be top 75 for sure, and probably top 60.

 

[H.K.]

Is this wishful thinking on my part? Why is Pinkston being ranked so low? If McNabb lives up to his projections, that's 22 TD passes. If that holds, can a starting WR only score twice, and get less than 400 yards on the season? Is Pinkston's injury holding his projections down?

I think you are on target and Pinkston will surpass projections, however, I would not expect to get consistent production out of any PHI WR on a week to week basis. I expect the Eagles' passing game to do well, but in way similar to the Patriots withouts any standout FF WR.

 

[zamboni]

I'm not sure if Pinkston will have that big of a role, particularly when you have Westbrook, LJ Smith and Brown as the likely options 1/2/3, and Lewis is probably in the mix somewhere as well.

I could be wrong though.

 

[Buddy Ball 2K3]

Brown had 4 tds and 571 yards with crap at QB during the last half of the season. I see him with 8-10 TDs and close to 1k in yards

Pinkston if healthy is a legit deep threat - 500-600 Yards 2-4 TDs

The rest of McNabbs TDs will be eaten up by Westbrook, LJ and Gaffney, so if you believe McNabb is going to have 21+ TDs they have go to someone.

I will take the current Eagles WR's over the crap they had during the 00,01,02,and 03 seasons.

 

[zamboni]

Brown had 4 tds and 571 yards with crap at QB during the last half of the season. I see him with 8-10 TDs and close to 1k in yards

Pinkston if healthy is a legit deep threat - 500-600 Yards 2-4 TDs

The rest of McNabbs TDs will be eaten up by Westbrook, LJ and Gaffney, so if you believe McNabb is going to have 21+ TDs they have go to someone.

I will take the current Eagles WR's over the crap they had during the 00,01,02,and 03 seasons.

Good call - I forgot about Gaffney. He's not that bad, and someone I may keep an eye on as a late-round flier.

 

[gman8343]

Gaffney is going to be good value IMO.

 

[Tau837]

I'm not sure if Pinkston will have that big of a role, particularly when you have Westbrook, LJ Smith and Brown as the likely options 1/2/3, and Lewis is probably in the mix somewhere as well.

I could be wrong though.

I don't disagree. However, let's look back at 2000-2003, before TO but after McNabb became the full time starter. Ignoring RBs for now and focusing on WRs & TEs, here were the third best receiving options from each of those seasons (by fantasy points using FBG scoring--no PPR):2000 - Torrance Small 40/569/3 - WR57

2001 - Pinkston 42/586/4 - WR48

2002 - Antonio Freeman 46/600/4 - WR56

2003 - Tie - James Thrash 49/558/1 & Freddie Mitchell 35/498/2 - WRs 67 & 68

Looks pretty likely that the 4th option after Westbrook, Smith, and Brown stands a very good chance of being top 60. Particularly when you consider that McNabb should be better now that he was from 2000-2003 and that the group of WRs Philly has now is likely a bit better than the groups they had in those seasons.

And before someone says that Westbrook will change those numbers, consider this: from 2000-2003, RBs averaged 103 receptions for Philly. Last year, they had 101.

The biggest reason to be down on Pinkston isn't Westbrook, Smith, and Brown, assuming you think Brown will be Philly's #1 WR. The biggest reason is Gaffney. The worst year posted above for Philly's 3rd best WR/TE was in 2003, and that was because Philly's #2 & #3 WRs had even numbers. If you think Gaffney will be about as good as Pinkston, that will probably serve to hold the fantasy numbers down for both.

 

[mbuehner]

The way I looked at Eagles WR (and I suspect the way a lot of their projections were made) was to try to determine how many passing yards the Eagles WRs under McNabb generally get without TO, and then divvy them up based on past performance and their likely roll this season.

Here are the years McNabb played 16 games without TO and the WR total recieving yards:

2000: WRs 1489 yards

2001: WRs 1900 yards

2003: WRs 1632 yards

In 2002 the Eagles WRs grabbed 2141 yards when McNabb played 10 games, but if you projected out McNabbs season to 16 games, they would have only gotten 2067 yards.

In 2004, 2460 yards

In 2005, 2250 yards

Taking every year since 2000, the average WR share is 1978 yards.

Taking only the McNabb w/o TO years, 1790 yards

Dodds is projecting the Philly WRs this year to account for 2073 yards. That would beat McNabb's best non-TO year (2002) slightly. This seems reasonable if not certain.

Now if you guys want to hand a certain wide reciever (or more) additional yards, you are quickly getting up into the 'Eagles w/ TO' catagory, which seems unlikely. The bottom line is, without TO, McNabb doesnt throw to his WRs very much or very deep, probably because they suck. I see no reason this will change unless somebody (Reggie Brown being the only likely candidate) steps up in a pretty big way. If you are going to nudge up a Pinkston or Brown etc, you should be certain to pull down one of the others if you want to keep the WR share in a realistic historical range. Nudging them all up seems like a really bad idea.

 

[MLBrandow]

Brown + Gaffney = value.

You think McNabb's not going to try and forcefeed Brown like he did TO?

And Brown is good enough to keep up.

 

[Rovers]

The way I looked at Eagles WR (and I suspect the way a lot of their projections were made) was to try to determine how many passing yards the Eagles WRs under McNabb generally get without TO, and then divvy them up based on past performance and their likely roll this season.

Here are the years McNabb played 16 games without TO and the WR total recieving yards:

2000: WRs 1489 yards

2001: WRs 1900 yards

2003: WRs 1632 yards

In 2002 the Eagles WRs grabbed 2141 yards when McNabb played 10 games, but if you projected out McNabbs season to 16 games, they would have only gotten 2067 yards.

In 2004, 2460 yards

In 2005, 2250 yards

Taking every year since 2000, the average WR share is 1978 yards.

Taking only the McNabb w/o TO years, 1790 yards

Dodds is projecting the Philly WRs this year to account for 2073 yards. That would beat McNabb's best non-TO year (2002) slightly. This seems reasonable if not certain.

Now if you guys want to hand a certain wide reciever (or more) additional yards, you are quickly getting up into the 'Eagles w/ TO' catagory, which seems unlikely. The bottom line is, without TO, McNabb doesnt throw to his WRs very much or very deep, probably because they suck. I see no reason this will change unless somebody (Reggie Brown being the only likely candidate) steps up in a pretty big way. If you are going to nudge up a Pinkston or Brown etc, you should be certain to pull down one of the others if you want to keep the WR share in a realistic historical range. Nudging them all up seems like a really bad idea.

I think most people figure Brown as an every down WR, while the on the other side, people are expecting a rotation. This is where I think I disagree, to a point (how's that for hedging?). I think Pinkston will get more playing time than what most people expect. 2002 was Pinkston's career year, to date, with 800 yards and 7 TD's in 15 games. At 6'3", and with some fairly good deep speed, I can see him possibly appraoching those numbers again, mostly based on playing time projections. (my own)Childress always seemed to like a rotation at WR. Does that change, or remain the same? I have some trouble thinking Gaffney will do more than his 500 yard and 1.75 career season averages. If that was all he could do with Andre Johnson getting double teamed in Houston, why would he all of a sudden blow up in Philly?

Lewis hardly took advantage of Owens' suspension last year, and I see him as depth, and not very good at that.

My projection for Pinkston is 650 yards, 5 TD's. Yes, I drop the numbers for Avant, Lewis and Gaffney to get there. I think that Brown and Pinkston will account for 15 or so of the TD passes to WR's in 2006. The player that could kill my projections is LJ Smith. IF he can stay healthy for a change, he could have some very nice numbers in this offense.

 

[renesauz]

Childress always seemed to like a rotation at WR. Does that change, or remain the same? I have some trouble thinking Gaffney will do more than his 500 yard and 1.75 career season averages. If that was all he could do with Andre Johnson getting double teamed in Houston, why would he all of a sudden blow up in Philly?

Because he has a better QB and an infinitely better offensive line that will actually give that QB enough time to find him AFTER he comes out of his break!

The Eagles recievers are, in general, being highly underrated this year.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Gaffney is big-time value this year.

I have a lot of the yardage going to Brown, then LJ Smith, then Westy, then Gaffney.

Off the top of my head:

Brown, 900

Westy 750

LJ 700

Gaffney 550

That's 2,900 yards.

McNabb has averaged 200+ per start over the past six seasons - which pre-dates TO.

There is 300+ for the remainder of the team (WR3, WR4, TE2).

All seems reasonable to me.

 

[mbuehner]

Keep an eye on Jason Avant if there is an injury to fill. He played in a pro-style at Michigan and always seemed to be one of those guys that was making big plays and in the right place at the right time. He definately isnt a proto-typical WR and isnt going to replace TO on any planet, but he should fit well into the Eagles scheme. I think he'll end up bringing more to the table than Greg Lewis or Jabar Gaffney once he gets seasoned and if he gets the opportunity.

 

[diesel7982]

Gaffney is big-time value this year.

I have a lot of the yardage going to Brown, then LJ Smith, then Westy, then Gaffney.

Off the top of my head:

Brown, 900

Westy 750

LJ 700

Gaffney 550

That's 2,900 yards.

McNabb has averaged 200+ per start over the past six seasons - which pre-dates TO.

There is 300+ for the remainder of the team (WR3, WR4, TE2).

All seems reasonable to me.

Not to mention the other RBs, FBs, WR5, TE3, etc. Outside of RB1, TE1, WR1, WR2:

In 2002, other recievers had ~1050 yards

In 2003, other recievers had ~1400 yards

In 2004, other recievers had ~1175 yards

In 2005, other recievers had ~1200 yards.

Just how big is that "+" behind that 300?

Does it still seem reasonable?

 

[Tau837]

Gaffney is big-time value this year.

I have a lot of the yardage going to Brown, then LJ Smith, then Westy, then Gaffney.

Off the top of my head:

Brown, 900

Westy 750

LJ 700

Gaffney 550

That's 2,900 yards.

McNabb has averaged 200+ per start over the past six seasons - which pre-dates TO.

There is 300+ for the remainder of the team (WR3, WR4, TE2).

All seems reasonable to me.

Not to mention the other RBs, FBs, WR5, TE3, etc. Outside of RB1, TE1, WR1, WR2:

In 2002, other recievers had ~1050 yards

In 2003, other recievers had ~1400 yards

In 2004, other recievers had ~1175 yards

In 2005, other recievers had ~1200 yards.

Just how big is that "+" behind that 300?

Does it still seem reasonable?

That was my immediate reaction as well.

 

[Rovers]

Gaffney is big-time value this year.

I have a lot of the yardage going to Brown, then LJ Smith, then Westy, then Gaffney.

Off the top of my head:

Brown, 900

Westy 750

LJ 700

Gaffney 550

That's 2,900 yards.

McNabb has averaged 200+ per start over the past six seasons - which pre-dates TO.

There is 300+ for the remainder of the team (WR3, WR4, TE2).

All seems reasonable to me.

This is where I get lost.... what am I missing? Why are so many people this high on Gaffney? The guy has done nothing in his NFL career to be so.... over rated. Andre Johnson was getting double teamed, and Gaffney did nothing with that opportunity. I mean, this guy had a 8.9 YPR last year! In 13 game starts, he had less than 500 yards and 2 TD's! I mean even in 2004, when Carr threw for over 3500 yards, Gaffney had 3 games with no catches, and three more with 1 catch. Out of that 3500 yards, Gaffney only had 632 yards. He had trouble even keeping his starting spot in Houston. He had 12 starts in 2004. I'm just not on this Gaffney Kool aid. On paper, Pinkston is clearly the better WR. I admit, I don't get to watch many Texan's games, but why this hype over what has so far been a very under-achieving WR? If a player is to displace Pinkston as the #2 in Philly, Gaffney is my 4th choice.... I just don't get it.

 

[renesauz]

Gaffney is big-time value this year.

I have a lot of the yardage going to Brown, then LJ Smith, then Westy, then Gaffney.

Off the top of my head:

Brown, 900

Westy 750

LJ 700

Gaffney 550

That's 2,900 yards.

McNabb has averaged 200+ per start over the past six seasons - which pre-dates TO.

There is 300+ for the remainder of the team (WR3, WR4, TE2).

All seems reasonable to me.

This is where I get lost.... what am I missing? Why are so many people this high on Gaffney? The guy has done nothing in his NFL career to be so.... over rated. Andre Johnson was getting double teamed, and Gaffney did nothing with that opportunity. I mean, this guy had a 8.9 YPR last year! In 13 game starts, he had less than 500 yards and 2 TD's! I mean even in 2004, when Carr threw for over 3500 yards, Gaffney had 3 games with no catches, and three more with 1 catch. Out of that 3500 yards, Gaffney only had 632 yards. He had trouble even keeping his starting spot in Houston. He had 12 starts in 2004. I'm just not on this Gaffney Kool aid. On paper, Pinkston is clearly the better WR. I admit, I don't get to watch many Texan's games, but why this hype over what has so far been a very under-achieving WR? If a player is to displace Pinkston as the #2 in Philly, Gaffney is my 4th choice.... I just don't get it.

Truthfully, I'm kind of glad so many people don't get it. After all, that means his ADP stays low and I steal him. I'm having a hard time seeing him NOT significantly increase his production after toiling in the disaster that has been Houston. David Carr has averaged almost A FULL SECOND less then the normal NFL Qb to make his read and throw a pass over the last 3 years. Gaffney still put up respectable numbers.

I could only wish Johnson went somewhere else as well...then there would be a second highly under-rated pro-bowl potential WR to steal in the middle rounds!

 

[Rovers]

Gaffney is big-time value this year.

I have a lot of the yardage going to Brown, then LJ Smith, then Westy, then Gaffney.

Off the top of my head:

Brown, 900

Westy 750

LJ 700

Gaffney 550

That's 2,900 yards.

McNabb has averaged 200+ per start over the past six seasons - which pre-dates TO.

There is 300+ for the remainder of the team (WR3, WR4, TE2).

All seems reasonable to me.

This is where I get lost.... what am I missing? Why are so many people this high on Gaffney? The guy has done nothing in his NFL career to be so.... over rated. Andre Johnson was getting double teamed, and Gaffney did nothing with that opportunity. I mean, this guy had a 8.9 YPR last year! In 13 game starts, he had less than 500 yards and 2 TD's! I mean even in 2004, when Carr threw for over 3500 yards, Gaffney had 3 games with no catches, and three more with 1 catch. Out of that 3500 yards, Gaffney only had 632 yards. He had trouble even keeping his starting spot in Houston. He had 12 starts in 2004. I'm just not on this Gaffney Kool aid. On paper, Pinkston is clearly the better WR. I admit, I don't get to watch many Texan's games, but why this hype over what has so far been a very under-achieving WR? If a player is to displace Pinkston as the #2 in Philly, Gaffney is my 4th choice.... I just don't get it.

Truthfully, I'm kind of glad so many people don't get it. After all, that means his ADP stays low and I steal him. I'm having a hard time seeing him NOT significantly increase his production after toiling in the disaster that has been Houston. David Carr has averaged almost A FULL SECOND less then the normal NFL Qb to make his read and throw a pass over the last 3 years. Gaffney still put up respectable numbers.

I could only wish Johnson went somewhere else as well...then there would be a second highly under-rated pro-bowl potential WR to steal in the middle rounds!

You say that less than 700 yards and two TD's as a starting WR with a QB that threw for over 3500 yards and 17 TD's is respectable? Um.... OK. I would say that is awful. Especially when the opposite WR is getting double teamed.

 

[NOSRAC247]

Yes, that bad! Pinkston, we dont even need to get into, we all know what he does. I watched Reggie Brown for 3 years drop ball after ball in crucial moments at UGA, (see UGA Vs. FL games, any of them)

 

[BigRed]

Why is Pinkston being ranked so low?

1 - He sucks2 - PHI/McNabb isn't normally a passing powerhouse

3 - Plenty of other comparable (better?) schmuck WRs to toss it around to, including younger guys w/more upside

4 - He sucks

I wouldn't draft Pinkston with your d.....oops wrong line

 

[Rovers]

Why is Pinkston being ranked so low?

1 - He sucks2 - PHI/McNabb isn't normally a passing powerhouse

3 - Plenty of other comparable (better?) schmuck WRs to toss it around to, including younger guys w/more upside

4 - He sucks

I wouldn't draft Pinkston with your d.....oops wrong line

I would not draft Pinkston either.... I said he was on 2 of my dynasty teams, and I inherited him on both rosters. Philly hasn't had a good WR besides Owens in... maybe a decade? As far as others with upside.... Avant , maybe. Pinkston is still the best of a bad group. And this Gaffney bandwagon... makes absolutely no sense to me at all.... it's baseless in the numbers, that's for sure. Andre Johnson had to deal with Carr and the lack of time he had to throw, but he still managed to have more than respectable numbers. Kubiack obviously thinks Gaffney isn't starting material either. The Gaffney bandwagon is actually a beer truck, and the people on it are drunk!

 

[gman8343]

I haven't seen a Gaffney bandwagon, nor have I seen anyone projecting outrageous numbers for him. He's not a superstar by any stretch, but he could put up decent numbers for where he's being drafted.

65 750 5 isn't out of the question for him, considering he had 55 catches and almost 500 yds starting 13 games on Houston last year. I would think McNabb and Philly's offense is a decent step up.

I don't think he's going to be great, I just think he's better than Todd Pingston and the numbers will reflect that.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Gaffney is big-time value this year.

I have a lot of the yardage going to Brown, then LJ Smith, then Westy, then Gaffney.

Off the top of my head:

Brown, 900

Westy 750

LJ 700

Gaffney 550

That's 2,900 yards.

McNabb has averaged 200+ per start over the past six seasons - which pre-dates TO.

There is 300+ for the remainder of the team (WR3, WR4, TE2).

All seems reasonable to me.

Not to mention the other RBs, FBs, WR5, TE3, etc. Outside of RB1, TE1, WR1, WR2:

In 2002, other recievers had ~1050 yards

In 2003, other recievers had ~1400 yards

In 2004, other recievers had ~1175 yards

In 2005, other recievers had ~1200 yards.

Just how big is that "+" behind that 300?

Does it still seem reasonable?

Seems like you're taking some liberties with the injury status of TO in 2004 and also his banishment in 2005.Let's start with 2003, since there was no TO (and McNabb played all 16):

Receiving Stats (2003)Player No Yds Avg Long TDTodd Pinkston 36 575 16.0 59 2James Thrash 49 558 11.4 51 1Freddie Mitchell 35 498 14.2 39 2Duce Staley 36 382 10.6 52 2Brian Westbrook 37 332 9.0 38 4L.J. Smith 27 321 11.9 36 1Chad Lewis 23 293 12.7 29 1Correll Buckhalter 10 133 13.3 27 1Greg Lewis 6 95 15.8 25 0Jon Ritchie 17 86 5.1 12 3Reno Mahe 1 5 5.0 5 0Billy McMullen 1 2 2.0 2 0Donovan McNabb 1 -7 -7.0 -7 0The Team Totals were 279 catches for 3,273 yards and 17 TDs.That seems like an adequate baseline to me.

So let me clean this up:

Receiving Stats (2003)Positions No Yds TDWide Receivers (Top 3) 120 1631 5Feature backs (RB1 and 2) 73 714 6 Feature TEs (TE1 and 2) 50 614 2Others 36 314 4So, off the top of my head, I went with Brown at 900 and Gaffney at 550. That's 1450 for the feature WRs. In 2003, that was 1631. Under a 10% difference. Seems reasonable, considering the 1631 is for 3 WRs. Again, off the top of my head, I went with the feature back with 700 yards. In 2003, the answer was 714. Westbrook looks good at 750.

Feature TEs, off the top of my head - I could see 700 for LJ. 614 yards in 2003 to both him and Chad Lewis as they shared time. Seems reasonable.

Funny - the "Others" added up to 314 - pretty close to my 300 estimate.

Thanks for playing.

 

[renesauz]

Gaffney is big-time value this year.

I have a lot of the yardage going to Brown, then LJ Smith, then Westy, then Gaffney.

Off the top of my head:

Brown, 900

Westy 750

LJ 700

Gaffney 550

That's 2,900 yards.

McNabb has averaged 200+ per start over the past six seasons - which pre-dates TO.

There is 300+ for the remainder of the team (WR3, WR4, TE2).

All seems reasonable to me.

Not to mention the other RBs, FBs, WR5, TE3, etc. Outside of RB1, TE1, WR1, WR2:

In 2002, other recievers had ~1050 yards

In 2003, other recievers had ~1400 yards

In 2004, other recievers had ~1175 yards

In 2005, other recievers had ~1200 yards.

Just how big is that "+" behind that 300?

Does it still seem reasonable?

Seems like you're taking some liberties with the injury status of TO in 2004 and also his banishment in 2005.Let's start with 2003, since there was no TO (and McNabb played all 16):

Receiving Stats (2003)Player             No Yds Avg  Long  TDTodd Pinkston      36 575 16.0   59   2James Thrash       49 558 11.4   51   1Freddie Mitchell   35 498 14.2   39   2Duce Staley        36 382 10.6   52   2Brian Westbrook    37 332  9.0   38   4L.J. Smith         27 321 11.9   36   1Chad Lewis         23 293 12.7   29   1Correll Buckhalter 10 133 13.3   27   1Greg Lewis          6  95 15.8   25   0Jon Ritchie        17  86  5.1   12   3Reno Mahe           1   5  5.0    5   0Billy McMullen      1   2  2.0    2   0Donovan McNabb      1  -7 -7.0   -7   0The Team Totals were 279 catches for 3,273 yards and 17 TDs.That seems like an adequate baseline to me.

So let me clean this up:

Receiving Stats (2003)Positions                      No    Yds  TDWide Receivers (Top 3)        120   1631   5Feature backs (RB1 and 2)      73    714   6     Feature TEs (TE1 and 2)        50    614   2Others                         36    314   4So, off the top of my head, I went with Brown at 900 and Gaffney at 550. That's 1450 for the feature WRs. In 2003, that was 1631. Under a 10% difference. Seems reasonable, considering the 1631 is for 3 WRs. Again, off the top of my head, I went with the feature back with 700 yards. In 2003, the answer was 714. Westbrook looks good at 750.

Feature TEs, off the top of my head - I could see 700 for LJ. 614 yards in 2003 to both him and Chad Lewis as they shared time. Seems reasonable.

Funny - the "Others" added up to 314 - pretty close to my 300 estimate.

Thanks for playing.

Only problem is that this group of recievers is at least a little bit better, McNabb is a bit more seasoned, the line is a bit better, and Westy is far more established.I was by no means trying to start a Gaffney bandwagon, or predict him to be a superstar, merely pointing out that a significant increase over his Houston numbers is LIKELY. Considering his current ADP, that would make him a steal. I can see McNabb putting up 4000 plus passing yards this season. This whole offense (recievers included) has a collective chip on their shoulders, and rightfully so.

 

[renesauz]

http://www.philadelphiaeagles.com/news/new...il.jsp?id=50177

from Eagles website, and a reportor far more familiar with Philly recievers then any of us

 

[JaxBill]

Just a couple of thoughts:

- With the addition of Schobel, the Eagles have said they are going to run more 2 TE formations than in the past.

- I wouldn't be surprised if they try to get Moats and Westbrook on the field at the same time and split one of them out.

- Personally, I think Gaffney will end up with a more productive year than Pinkston, but I think Reid will do everything possible to keep Pinkston in the starting role for the season opener. Pinkston seems to be one of Reid's guys for some reason.

 

[mbuehner]

from Eagles website, and a reportor far more familiar with Philly recievers then any of us

Homer reporter talk. Everybody looks outstanding without pads on. The 'problem' with the Eagles receivers traditionally is that they dont have the talent and arent called upon to be gamebreakers- and thats what scores fantasy points. They ran go routes with TO, but they run curls with Pinkston and move the chains. Then when they get in the red zone, WRs are at best the 3rd or 4th option. Its just the Eagles scheme, and for all the fantasy headaches it provides it has worked pretty well for them over the years.That being said, with all the improvements in the division I dont think McNabb is going to be able to put this offense on his back and carry them to the playoffs this year. Unless the defense is one of the best in the league the Eagles are in trouble, because the offense hasnt improved much at all and their opponents have had about 6 years to figure them out.

 

[diesel7982]

Gaffney is big-time value this year.

I have a lot of the yardage going to Brown, then LJ Smith, then Westy, then Gaffney.

Off the top of my head:

Brown, 900

Westy 750

LJ 700

Gaffney 550

That's 2,900 yards.

McNabb has averaged 200+ per start over the past six seasons - which pre-dates TO.

There is 300+ for the remainder of the team (WR3, WR4, TE2).

All seems reasonable to me.

Not to mention the other RBs, FBs, WR5, TE3, etc. Outside of RB1, TE1, WR1, WR2:

In 2002, other recievers had ~1050 yards

In 2003, other recievers had ~1400 yards

In 2004, other recievers had ~1175 yards

In 2005, other recievers had ~1200 yards.

Just how big is that "+" behind that 300?

Does it still seem reasonable?

Seems like you're taking some liberties with the injury status of TO in 2004 and also his banishment in 2005.Let's start with 2003, since there was no TO (and McNabb played all 16):

Receiving Stats (2003)Player No Yds Avg Long TDTodd Pinkston 36 575 16.0 59 2James Thrash 49 558 11.4 51 1Freddie Mitchell 35 498 14.2 39 2Duce Staley 36 382 10.6 52 2Brian Westbrook 37 332 9.0 38 4L.J. Smith 27 321 11.9 36 1Chad Lewis 23 293 12.7 29 1Correll Buckhalter 10 133 13.3 27 1Greg Lewis 6 95 15.8 25 0Jon Ritchie 17 86 5.1 12 3Reno Mahe 1 5 5.0 5 0Billy McMullen 1 2 2.0 2 0Donovan McNabb 1 -7 -7.0 -7 0The Team Totals were 279 catches for 3,273 yards and 17 TDs.That seems like an adequate baseline to me.

So let me clean this up:

Receiving Stats (2003)Positions No Yds TDWide Receivers (Top 3) 120 1631 5Feature backs (RB1 and 2) 73 714 6 Feature TEs (TE1 and 2) 50 614 2Others 36 314 4So, off the top of my head, I went with Brown at 900 and Gaffney at 550. That's 1450 for the feature WRs. In 2003, that was 1631. Under a 10% difference. Seems reasonable, considering the 1631 is for 3 WRs. Again, off the top of my head, I went with the feature back with 700 yards. In 2003, the answer was 714. Westbrook looks good at 750.

Feature TEs, off the top of my head - I could see 700 for LJ. 614 yards in 2003 to both him and Chad Lewis as they shared time. Seems reasonable.

Funny - the "Others" added up to 314 - pretty close to my 300 estimate.

Thanks for playing.

So, just so I have this straight, you are telling me that everyone outside of Westy, LJ Smith, Reggie Brown, and Jabar Gaffney will total less than 315 yards recieving on the Eagles roster?

Im sure the other Eagles recievers will drop off of their historical averages by 70-80%....because you said so. Because thats the only explanation you are giving here.

 

[mbuehner]

So, just so I have this straight, you are telling me that everyone outside of Westy, LJ Smith, Reggie Brown, and Jabar Gaffney will total less than 315 yards recieving on the Eagles roster?

Since 2002, the Eagles #3 WR has averaged 509 yards per season (the worst season being 2004 with TO, 379 yards).Since 2002, the Eagles #4 WR has averaged 168.5 yards per season.

 

[Bri]

someone's catching the ball in Philly this year. Some predictions don't seem to account for that

 

[PhilyFn]

Another thing I think some people don't realize or are accounting for is the anti-TO factor. DMac hears all of this and before he wasn't sold on the crop of guys we had, thats why he lobbied to bring TO in. Now though it's just the opposite, he has to make this work. He hears all the talk, knows what everyone says, and wants to prove them wrong. McNabb is in the best shape of his carerr for more than one reason IMO.

The Philly receivers, yes are not superstars by any stretch of the immagination, but capable, I think so. Yes, I agree the ball will be spread around. Yes, they will use a lot of 2 TE sets. Yes, Moats and Westy will be on the field at the same time, and that right there should put fear into a lot of LB's. I think, and of course this is just a good ole fashion homers thoughts, but I wouldn't be suprised to see McNabb duplicate his 04 effort.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

So, just so I have this straight, you are telling me that everyone outside of Westy, LJ Smith, Reggie Brown, and Jabar Gaffney will total less than 315 yards recieving on the Eagles roster?



Im sure the other Eagles recievers will drop off of their historical averages by 70-80%....because you said so. Because thats the only explanation you are giving here.

This obviously isn't going anywhere, but I will try one last time.In 2003, here were your WR starters:

Pinkston (15 starts)

Jame Thrash (16)

Freddie Mitchell (6)

2004:

TO (14)

Pinkston (16)

Mitchell (9)

Greg Lewis (3)

2005:

TO (7)

Greg Lewis (16)

Reggie Brown (11)

So I don't believe it is a fair comparison to judge WR3's across each year. In all 3 cases, WR3 has 6+ starts, which I do not believe will be the case this season. Moreover, 2004 and 2005 had a clear #1 receiver in TO on the roster, yet his starts were truncated by injury ('04) and behavior ('05).

I am basing my projections for Reggie Brown with 16 starts this year and Gaffney with 12+ starts. I do not see Lewis as much of a contributor at all this season.

At this point, I agree to disagree and we'll see how it plays out.

 

[mbuehner]

This is completely ridiculous, but im doing it anyway. Screw it, its a sample size of 2 games on a team in chaos at the time, but im saying its definitive:

2005, McNabb w/o TO, yards recieving

Game 9

RB1 Brian Westbrook=55

TE2 Stephen Spach=14

TE1 L.J. Smith=10

RB2 Josh Parry=14

WR3 Billy McMullen=60

WR2 Greg Lewis=57

WR1 Reggie Brown=94

Game 10

RB1 Brian Westbrook=32

TE1 L.J. Smith=56

RB2 Josh Parry=16

WR3 Billy McMullen=5

WR2 Greg Lewis=42

TE2 Chad Lewis=17

WR1 Reggie Brown=15

Projected over a season:

RB1+TE1+WR1+WR2= 2888y

all others= 1008y

Westy=696y

RB2=240y

LJ=528y

TE2=248y

WR1=872y

WR2=792y

WR3=520y

You guys figure out which WR goes where.

Stamp it, seal it, lock it away from the competition! I defy anyone to poke a hole in these projections.

 

[Keg]

http://www.philadelphiaeagles.com/news/new...il.jsp?id=50177

from Eagles website, and a reportor far more familiar with Philly recievers then any of us

from Eagles website, and a reportor far more familiar with Philly recievers then any of us

Homer reporter talk. Everybody looks outstanding without pads on. The 'problem' with the Eagles receivers traditionally is that they dont have the talent and arent called upon to be gamebreakers- and thats what scores fantasy points. They ran go routes with TO, but they run curls with Pinkston and move the chains. Then when they get in the red zone, WRs are at best the 3rd or 4th option. Its just the Eagles scheme, and for all the fantasy headaches it provides it has worked pretty well for them over the years.That being said, with all the improvements in the division I dont think McNabb is going to be able to put this offense on his back and carry them to the playoffs this year. Unless the defense is one of the best in the league the Eagles are in trouble, because the offense hasnt improved much at all and their opponents have had about 6 years to figure them out.

Spidaro is more of a Reid puppet then reporter...seriously does anyone in the philly area really look at spidaro as a reporter?

 

[PhilyFn]

Spidaro is more of a Reid puppet then reporter...seriously does anyone in the philly area really look at spidaro as a reporter?

Fluffer not reporter

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Who Throws It Where

2003 2004 2005WR1 17.6 28.5 19.5WR2 17.1 16.1 14.6WR3 15.2 9.0 14.4WR Total 52.9 58.5 57.6TE1 9.8 9.0 17.5TE2 9.0 6.3 1.6TE Total 18.8 16.4 20.3RB1 11.7 16.7 15.8RB2 10.2 2.9 2.3RB Total 28.5 25.2 22.0

It's interesting to note that, while the WR1 percentage did jump, the addition of Terrell Owens in 2004 didn't change the Eagles' WR/TE/RB distribution too much. His departure probably won't change it much either. There is no reason not to expect lots of passes to L.J. Smith and Brian Westbrook. And expect the rest of the passes to be distributed equally among the wide receivers, none of whom will have much fantasy value.

So, FWIW - I agree with WRs getting 50-60% of the yardage, and LJ Smith getting about 15-20% and Westy similarly getting about 15%.From earlier I said:

Off the top of my head:

Brown, 900

Westy 750

LJ 700

Gaffney 550

The only tweak I'd have here is that I have WR1 getting about 25-30% this year (Brown), which pushes my estimate of 900 if I assume 3200-3300 yards.I have Gaffney with about 15-17.5%, which approaches 500-550 yards.

LJ with 17% of 3200-3300 puts him at about 600 at the top end. I have him having a bigger year than that and supplanting a quality WR3.

I also think Westy will be in the slot as a WR out of the backfield, so 20% of the receiving yards would have him at about 650 yards. So I would have to say he'd get more (or the whole pie is bigger).

Good stuff Doug.

 

[Encyclopedia Brown]

Is the Olympic skier, Bloom anywhere in the mix? Or is he going to be solely a KR/PR?

 

[PhilyFn]

Strictly a returner, no way he gets on the field this year otherwise, unless something catasrophic hits :knockonwood: