The effects of an expanded schedule (1 Viewer)

[SuperJohn96]

With 1 or 2 extra games, I think RBs will the most affected.

Specifically, the #2 RB for each NFL team.

RBs can only get so many carries in a season, so IMO, a lot of those extra carries will go to the backups rather than the starters, making them more valuable, and the starters less valuable.

Conversely, I think the starting QBs and WRs will become more valuable, as I don't really have the same concerns about overuse.

For instance, the leaders in completions, rushes and receptions are:

413 = Drew Brees QB, NOS = 25.815 PG

376 = Michael Turner RB, ATL = 23.5 PG

115 = Andre Johnson WR, HOU = 7.1875 PG

Using their per game averages and going to say, an 18 game schedule:

465 = Drew Brees QB, NOS = +52 completions

423 = Michael Turner RB, ATL = +47 rushes

129 = Andre Johnson WR, HOU = +14 catches

If the RB is the first position to break down due to increased touches, then the likelihood of Turner to maintain his pace and get 423 rushes is not high*. Whereas Brees and AJ probably wouldn't have the same problems. This means that AJ (and other receivers) might have more opportunities to amass stats than starting RBs. I say "starting" RBs, because using this logic, Jerious Norwood (in this example) should be the beneficiary of starters like Turner not maintaining their usual number of rushes per game. In flex leagues, this makes WRs more valuable in relation to (NFL) starting RBs...right?

Overall, I would expect people who better manage the depth of their roster to be more successful, due to (a) increased opportunities to touch the ball and (b) increased chances for injuries.

Thoughts?

* RE: Turner and 423 Carries - I don't mean that he'll breakdown, rather that his rushes might be limited to avoid breakdown.

 

[SuperJohn96]

Oh, and I suppose in Dynasty leagues, RBs would have even shorter careers.

So if you could get stud QB/WRs, then go after RBs, that might be the best move.

Even moreso in PPR leagues.

 

[puckalicious]

Oh, and I suppose in Dynasty leagues, RBs would have even shorter careers.So if you could get stud QB/WRs, then go after RBs, that might be the best move.Even moreso in PPR leagues.

If you are arguing that the main RB on each team won't get increased carries but the backup RB will, then I fail to see why the main RB will have a shorter career.I agree with your general assessment. I think an increased schedule will dilute the fantasy value of RB in comparison to the other positions and make PPR obsolete in the process.

 

[SuperJohn96]

Oh, and I suppose in Dynasty leagues, RBs would have even shorter careers.

So if you could get stud QB/WRs, then go after RBs, that might be the best move.

Even moreso in PPR leagues.

If you are arguing that the main RB on each team won't get increased carries but the backup RB will, then I fail to see why the main RB will have a shorter career.

I'm not saying they won't have an increase, just that they won't maintain their per game numbers as much as QB/WRs would.They'll still have increased touches, and even if those extra touches are limited, they'll still have a worse effect on the RBs and the length of their careers, than the increased passes/receptions for QBs/WRs.

I agree with your general assessment. I think an increased schedule will dilute the fantasy value of RB in comparison to the other positions and make PPR obsolete in the process.

Hmm, this didn't even occur to me. If PPR was developed to be an equalizer, then do we really need it if the RB values are diluted?

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

Oh, and I suppose in Dynasty leagues, RBs would have even shorter careers.

So if you could get stud QB/WRs, then go after RBs, that might be the best move.

Even moreso in PPR leagues.

If you are arguing that the main RB on each team won't get increased carries but the backup RB will, then I fail to see why the main RB will have a shorter career.

I'm not saying they won't have an increase, just that they won't maintain their per game numbers as much as QB/WRs would.They'll still have increased touches, and even if those extra touches are limited, they'll still have a worse effect on the RBs and the length of their careers, than the increased passes/receptions for QBs/WRs.

I agree with your general assessment. I think an increased schedule will dilute the fantasy value of RB in comparison to the other positions and make PPR obsolete in the process.

Hmm, this didn't even occur to me. If PPR was developed to be an equalizer, then do we really need it if the RB values are diluted?

1 ppr for rb and te and .5 for wr

 

[ratbast]

Interesting thread. I agree somewhat with your point.

Depth everywhere would be more important. Defenses would need more depth, offenses would need more depth. RBs depth may be used more in general but there would need to be extra depth added to rosters.

A good healthy RB that gets most of the carries would possibly be the most value to us as well.

For years the changing of rules in fantasy has tried to equal out the best QB/RB/WR. The rules evolution may have to change again.

 

[coolnerd]

The first question would be how many weeks would you average league play now. Will thirteen game leagues automatically turn into fifteen week leagues?

My major concern is with potential for having more weeks to deal with teams figuring out if they are going to "rest" players or at least limit the time of thier superstars. Most years there seems to be a couple of teams which win their division by three or four games in a 16 game season. Two extra games may just mean two extra weeks of the line-up of a quality team being in flux.

Edit to add: You will also have more bad weather weeks at the end of the season, which would cause more of the one week disasters either in FF playoffs or push to the playoffs.

 

[SuperJohn96]

The first question would be how many weeks would you average league play now. Will thirteen game leagues automatically turn into fifteen week leagues? My major concern is with potential for having more weeks to deal with teams figuring out if they are going to "rest" players or at least limit the time of thier superstars. Most years there seems to be a couple of teams which win their division by three or four games in a 16 game season. Two extra games may just mean two extra weeks of the line-up of a quality team being in flux.Edit to add: You will also have more bad weather weeks at the end of the season, which would cause more of the one week disasters either in FF playoffs or push to the playoffs.

More good questions.I think everyone agrees that depth will be much more important, regardless of the reasons.

 

[SuperJohn96]

Interesting thread. I agree somewhat with your point.

Depth everywhere would be more important. Defenses would need more depth, offenses would need more depth. RBs depth may be used more in general but there would need to be extra depth added to rosters.

A good healthy RB that gets most of the carries would possibly be the most value to us as well.

For years the changing of rules in fantasy has tried to equal out the best QB/RB/WR. The rules evolution may have to change again.

Okay, maybe once a year you get a guy who's coach runs him into the ground, but that's not really going to be the norm, and it won't be the same guy every year.But (for example) if you're Childress, and you've got Chester Taylor as your RB#2, do you really want to risk injuring ADP and giving him 430 carries? Or does Chester Taylor get a bunch more work, spread out over the course of the season?

MIN rushed 519 times in 20 games, for 25.95 rushes per game.

363 = ADP (22.7)

101 = CT (6.3)

If they had 18 games last year, where would the extra 52 rushing attempts go? If they maintained their pace, ADP would have 36 more (399) and Chester would get 10 more.

I contend that, even with a stud superstar RB, that a backup like Taylor would get far more than his normal avg.

 

[lord_helmet]

The first question would be how many weeks would you average league play now. Will thirteen game leagues automatically turn into fifteen week leagues? My major concern is with potential for having more weeks to deal with teams figuring out if they are going to "rest" players or at least limit the time of thier superstars. Most years there seems to be a couple of teams which win their division by three or four games in a 16 game season. Two extra games may just mean two extra weeks of the line-up of a quality team being in flux.Edit to add: You will also have more bad weather weeks at the end of the season, which would cause more of the one week disasters either in FF playoffs or push to the playoffs.

Remove 2 pre-season games and play the extra regular games then ?

 

[TTAC]

I don't think it will do anything other than increase the value of backups. I do agree that it will mostly be the RB's.

It will increase season total stats, but the games will still be 60 minutes long.

PPG!

 

[SuperJohn96]

The first question would be how many weeks would you average league play now. Will thirteen game leagues automatically turn into fifteen week leagues? My major concern is with potential for having more weeks to deal with teams figuring out if they are going to "rest" players or at least limit the time of thier superstars. Most years there seems to be a couple of teams which win their division by three or four games in a 16 game season. Two extra games may just mean two extra weeks of the line-up of a quality team being in flux.Edit to add: You will also have more bad weather weeks at the end of the season, which would cause more of the one week disasters either in FF playoffs or push to the playoffs.

Remove 2 pre-season games and play the extra regular games then ?

I think the NFL doesn't want to play the regular season during the September long weekend, but it's certainly a possibility.Then we won't have the Super Bowl at the end of February...

 

[coolnerd]

The first question would be how many weeks would you average league play now. Will thirteen game leagues automatically turn into fifteen week leagues? My major concern is with potential for having more weeks to deal with teams figuring out if they are going to "rest" players or at least limit the time of thier superstars. Most years there seems to be a couple of teams which win their division by three or four games in a 16 game season. Two extra games may just mean two extra weeks of the line-up of a quality team being in flux.Edit to add: You will also have more bad weather weeks at the end of the season, which would cause more of the one week disasters either in FF playoffs or push to the playoffs.

Remove 2 pre-season games and play the extra regular games then ?

Everything that I have seen has them removing 2 pre-season games, but not playing extra regular season games in the same time spot. In other words, the season will still start that week after Labor day, but end later. There is some talk that there could be an extra bye week also.

 

[SuperJohn96]

The first question would be how many weeks would you average league play now. Will thirteen game leagues automatically turn into fifteen week leagues?

My major concern is with potential for having more weeks to deal with teams figuring out if they are going to "rest" players or at least limit the time of thier superstars. Most years there seems to be a couple of teams which win their division by three or four games in a 16 game season. Two extra games may just mean two extra weeks of the line-up of a quality team being in flux.

Edit to add: You will also have more bad weather weeks at the end of the season, which would cause more of the one week disasters either in FF playoffs or push to the playoffs.

Remove 2 pre-season games and play the extra regular games then ?

Everything that I have seen has them removing 2 pre-season games, but not playing extra regular season games in the same time spot. In other words, the season will still start that week after Labor day, but end later. There is some talk that there could be an extra bye week also.

LOL...If they had an 18 game schedule this season, plus an extra BYE, that's 3 extra weeks, so 20 in total!2009-10 Example

Week 01 - Sun Sep 13

...

Week 16 - Sun Dec 27 (Current League Championship for those with no Week 17 games)

Week 17 - Sun Jan 03

Week 18 - Sun Jan 10

Week 19 - Sun Jan 17 (Potentially new FF Championship weekend?)

Week 20 - Sun Jan 24

-----------------------------

Wild Card - Sun Jan 31

Divisional - Sun Feb 7 (The actual SB Date this season.)

Conference - Sun Feb 14 (Valentine's Day...LOL!)

Week Off? - Sun Feb 21

Super Bowl - Sun Feb 28

I have no problem with this...

 

[mr. furley]

shame on you