packersfan
Footballguy
I've always been a big proponent of the philosophy that it's not where you draft but who you draft. And I still believe that ultimately every fantasy football title comes down to that core ingredient. However, if ever there was a year when picking at the end of the first round is a no-man's land and rich with minefields this may be the year.
If we're talking about a typical 12-team league (non-PPR for the purposes of this discussion) the first four picks are locked in stone and in my opinion have been for awhile. They are:
1. Larry Johnson
2. Shaun Alexander
3. LaDainian Tomlinson
4. Tiki Barber
The order of the Top 3 may shift but those should be the Top 4 players taken in most drafts this year. Clinton Portis had been a consensus Top 5 pick but his shoulder injury has led his draft stock to sink faster than Rosie O'Donnell in a community pool. After the Top 4 there are some RBs I would consider to be solid picks in the next two spots. They are:
5. Edgerrin James
6. Rudi Johnson
The issues surrounding Edge and his move to Arizona have been well-documented but while I don't believe he'll be the fantasy stalwart he's been in the past I do think the sheer volume of touches he'll receive should lead to no worse than solid RB1 yardage production (his TD potential is, in my opinion, the biggest issue he's confronting on that team). Rudi Johnson remains one of the most under-rated RBs in fantasy in my opinion. He's not a sexy pick; he's just consistent and productive and the longer Chris Perry remains hobbled the more the Bengals will lean on Johnson in their running game (he won't become more of a factor in the passing game even if Perry is sidelined for awhile since I would expect Kenny Watson to handle the third-down RB role).
Going further if you want to include Stephen Jackson in that group I wouldn't quibble though his current Achilles' tendon injury has raised a red flag (albeit a minor one at the present time) with me. I do worry that he's the type of RB who's always nicked up a bit and that's why I have viewed him as more of an upside pick than a sure-fire RB1 this season.
Ronnie Brown could also be included in the mix of top first-round picks though the jury is still out on whether he can stay healthy and be the featured RB all season long. The memory of his rookie season when Ricky Williams was clearly the superior RB late in the season is one I haven't forgotten about Brown, though I do like his potential.
But I'm willing to stipulate that for the sake of discussion these are the eight picks that owners can feel good about in varying ranges of "safeness." After that, however, is when all hell looks like it's going to break loose.
Portis' injury; the concerns about LaMont Jordan losing a major role in the passing game and Cadillac Williams' durability issues have raised a dark cloud over the latter portions of the first round in a typical 12-team draft. Portis has become, in my opinion, undraftable in the first round. T.J. Duckett's arrival is difficult to ignore in terms of its impact on Portis. Even if Portis' shoulder injury proves to be nothing more than a minor nuisance, Duckett's success near the goal line screams "TD Vulture" and that will have a serious impact on Portis' fantasy potential. No longer can he be viewed as even a solid RB1 in my opinion.
Jordan's 2005 season was keyed by his standout work in the passing game. He was elevated to RB1 status almost entirely on the strength of his 70 receptions. Through three pre-season games he's yet to catch a pass and while it's foolish to bank too much on pre-season results, when you combine this development with head coach Art Shell's use of RBs in the passing game historically it's difficult to ignore the potential impact on Jordan's fantasy outlook. To say he's become a shaky RB1 now is putting it mildly.
Cadillac Williams, meanwhile, could be a Top 5 RB. He clearly has the talent to reach that level. Unfortunately, he had durability issues coming into the league and did nothing last season to shake them. He also hasn't proven he can be a factor in the passing game and he stands to lose at least a few TDs near the goal line to Mike Alstott. I can appreciate the argument for Cadillac as a RB1 option but to say he comes without risk is one I cannot embrace.
But that's what you're left with if you're chasing a RB at the end of the first round this year. Do you go for Jordan despite the lingering fears that surround him; do you hope Cadillac can stay healthy, learn how to catch and get the TDs at the goal line that Alstott once called his own or do you ignore the RB position completely and turn to the top WR on your board and hope to mix and match a RB corps together that can get you to your league title?
I still believe RB is the way to go in Round 1 but if you're sitting at the backend of the first round this year the choices there aren't exactly exhilirating at the present time. The old adage that you don't win your championship in the first round but you can lose it there is going to be one owners picking from 9-12 this year are going to be hearing over and over and over again.
If we're talking about a typical 12-team league (non-PPR for the purposes of this discussion) the first four picks are locked in stone and in my opinion have been for awhile. They are:
1. Larry Johnson
2. Shaun Alexander
3. LaDainian Tomlinson
4. Tiki Barber
The order of the Top 3 may shift but those should be the Top 4 players taken in most drafts this year. Clinton Portis had been a consensus Top 5 pick but his shoulder injury has led his draft stock to sink faster than Rosie O'Donnell in a community pool. After the Top 4 there are some RBs I would consider to be solid picks in the next two spots. They are:
5. Edgerrin James
6. Rudi Johnson
The issues surrounding Edge and his move to Arizona have been well-documented but while I don't believe he'll be the fantasy stalwart he's been in the past I do think the sheer volume of touches he'll receive should lead to no worse than solid RB1 yardage production (his TD potential is, in my opinion, the biggest issue he's confronting on that team). Rudi Johnson remains one of the most under-rated RBs in fantasy in my opinion. He's not a sexy pick; he's just consistent and productive and the longer Chris Perry remains hobbled the more the Bengals will lean on Johnson in their running game (he won't become more of a factor in the passing game even if Perry is sidelined for awhile since I would expect Kenny Watson to handle the third-down RB role).
Going further if you want to include Stephen Jackson in that group I wouldn't quibble though his current Achilles' tendon injury has raised a red flag (albeit a minor one at the present time) with me. I do worry that he's the type of RB who's always nicked up a bit and that's why I have viewed him as more of an upside pick than a sure-fire RB1 this season.
Ronnie Brown could also be included in the mix of top first-round picks though the jury is still out on whether he can stay healthy and be the featured RB all season long. The memory of his rookie season when Ricky Williams was clearly the superior RB late in the season is one I haven't forgotten about Brown, though I do like his potential.
But I'm willing to stipulate that for the sake of discussion these are the eight picks that owners can feel good about in varying ranges of "safeness." After that, however, is when all hell looks like it's going to break loose.
Portis' injury; the concerns about LaMont Jordan losing a major role in the passing game and Cadillac Williams' durability issues have raised a dark cloud over the latter portions of the first round in a typical 12-team draft. Portis has become, in my opinion, undraftable in the first round. T.J. Duckett's arrival is difficult to ignore in terms of its impact on Portis. Even if Portis' shoulder injury proves to be nothing more than a minor nuisance, Duckett's success near the goal line screams "TD Vulture" and that will have a serious impact on Portis' fantasy potential. No longer can he be viewed as even a solid RB1 in my opinion.
Jordan's 2005 season was keyed by his standout work in the passing game. He was elevated to RB1 status almost entirely on the strength of his 70 receptions. Through three pre-season games he's yet to catch a pass and while it's foolish to bank too much on pre-season results, when you combine this development with head coach Art Shell's use of RBs in the passing game historically it's difficult to ignore the potential impact on Jordan's fantasy outlook. To say he's become a shaky RB1 now is putting it mildly.
Cadillac Williams, meanwhile, could be a Top 5 RB. He clearly has the talent to reach that level. Unfortunately, he had durability issues coming into the league and did nothing last season to shake them. He also hasn't proven he can be a factor in the passing game and he stands to lose at least a few TDs near the goal line to Mike Alstott. I can appreciate the argument for Cadillac as a RB1 option but to say he comes without risk is one I cannot embrace.
But that's what you're left with if you're chasing a RB at the end of the first round this year. Do you go for Jordan despite the lingering fears that surround him; do you hope Cadillac can stay healthy, learn how to catch and get the TDs at the goal line that Alstott once called his own or do you ignore the RB position completely and turn to the top WR on your board and hope to mix and match a RB corps together that can get you to your league title?
I still believe RB is the way to go in Round 1 but if you're sitting at the backend of the first round this year the choices there aren't exactly exhilirating at the present time. The old adage that you don't win your championship in the first round but you can lose it there is going to be one owners picking from 9-12 this year are going to be hearing over and over and over again.
I think this is a terrible year for RB. Questions everywhere and high degrees of risk with the vast majority of options. If you're picking at the end of the first round the risk becomes even greater in my opinion. I'm sitting at 9 as I said and if the draft were today and Edge, Rudi and Brown were all gone I'd take Caddy as my RB1 but I sure as hell wouldn't feel extremely confident about it for the reasons I listed in my initial thread. In the second round, the risk becomes even greater at RB where guys like McGahee, K.Jones, Bush, Parker and so forth could all be good or solid but all carry high risk as well. I think Dunn has now become a very safe RB2 option and he is one of the few RBs in the second round who doesn't bring high risk. He's actually become a player who could counterbalance some of the risk associated with your RB1 if you're picking late in the first and get him as your RB2.
