THE FANTASY KING
Footballguy
Now that most of my drafts are over, I am happy to share some of my most utilized THE FANTASY KING EPIPHANIES. As I’ve discussed before , I used to reserve these golden pro tips to my forum members but that forum is now defunct, so I mostly share my thoughts with my cats oron other forums like this excellent one.
PLEASE ENJOY! Forgive the stream of conshisnuss format, I am just riffing here.
Andrew Luck will be a top 12 quarterback in 2012.
Despite the predilictions of many probnomogators, the Colts dot appear to think that they are at the outset of a long rebuilding phaze. They retained the aging Reggie Wayne (and made a serious attempt to retain Garcon as well if reports can be believed), did not make a serious effort to trade Mathis or Freeney despite their scheme change and Freeney being the highest paid player in the NFL, and they just traded a future 2nd round pick for help at CB. They have also surrounded their new franchise quarterback with an array of intriguing, complimentary weapons. Wayne, Fleener, Allen, Hilton, Brazill and, yes, THE FANTASY KING SUPER SLEEPER Donnie Avery is a formidable group in my opinion.
The only weakness might be an unspectacular group of RB;s, which actually enhances my view of Luck because I think they will be relying on the pass more. This thought is also supported by what I think may be a wobbly Colts defense as it awkwardly steps into a 3-4, which I expect will not go smoothly in year 1, again, requiring Luck to throw more.
I have zero question about his ability, and I think the situation sets up hell. Here are the quarterbacks I have ranked ahead of him for 2012:
Tom Brady
Aaron Rodgers
Drew Brees
Cam Newton
Matthew Stafford
Matt Ryan
Michael Vick*
Tony Romo
Philip Rivers
Andrew Luck
Eli Manning
Robert Griffin of the Third
In a 12 team league with normal scoring, I have no problem taking Luck as my 1A in a committee. He can currently be had pretty late.
TANGENTAL EPIPHANY: Reggie Wayne will be a top 15 WR at bargain price. I do not feels like I have to explain why I think this.
BRANDON LLOYD IS GOING TO BE A TOP 5 WR
Everyone seemed on board with this prediction, or at least with the possibility of it, when Lloyd joined the Patriots. Now, there seems to be a confluence of circumstanches that are causing people to drop him down:
High profile extensions of Gronk and Hernandez focusing the mentality of fantasy footballers on how the tighends are going to be the biggest part of the offense.
The brief attention spent on Wes Welker.
Lloyd’s lack of pre-season production to date (1 catch for 12 yards)
It seems now that Llyd has fallen victim to the fears of “too many targets” in New England.
1 catch, 9 yards
Any idea what the above is?
That was Randy Moss’ stat line for the entire 2007 pre-season. That’s correct, the season he broke the single season touchdown record (along with Brady).
This is more than “it’s just the pre-season.” This was, in my opinion, a deliberate attempt by New England to mask what they were about to unleech on the league. They knew what they had, they didn’t see a reason to flaunt it and tip their hand. Brandon Lloyd is not Randy Moss, but I believe something similar is happening here. They’re not hiding Lloyd or ignoring him...but they are downplaying him.
The Patriots have the best offense in the league, and Lloyd has a skill set that nobody else on that team has - he is unique in what he can do as compared to what the other’s do. I think he easily has double digit touchdowns and over 1,300 yards. We know Brady is capable of supporting those numbers, and we know Lloyd is capable of catching them. This is not a hard one.
You can draft Lloyd as your WR2 right now or WR1 if you’re waiting on WR (which is wise). I have 11 teams with Lloyd/Wayne combo. Think about it.
Waiting on TE? Witten is your target.
Nothing like a bleeding spleen to kill someone’s ADP. This has been covered add nozium by Jene Bramel and other experts, but Witten is going to be fine for the majority of the season. And once he is back, we know that he is 100% fine and that the spleen will not be a problem anymore because they could not let him back unless they knew that to be true.
Take Witten late, get laughed at for taking a guy with internal bleeding, and hold your finger high in the air. The finger of victorie.
Stop drafting Jonathan Stewart as “the next.” He’s not. Just stop.
This applies to all formats, redraft, dynasty, flex, PPR, double reverse lineup, etc. He is in a platoon. That is not going to change. DeAngello Williams is very good. Please just sto this, I get asked about Stewart from my base more than any other player, I can’t even write out my knowledge on this one - just trust me - STOP.
Titus Young - we sorta see it coming but we still don’t.
This is a pretty obvious one. Some of us are high on him, but when we look back we will realize we were not as high as we should have been. He is going to break out. He is the #2 target on an explosive offense that has no running game to speak off. Pettigrew may out-target him this year, but I doubt it. Young has talent, and the perfect situation, he is still going way too low. I think he’ll end up being a WR2 this year, especially in non-PPR, and right now he is going as WR #41. Absolutely ridonkulous. ALL of those 11 Lloyd/Wayne teams also have Titus Young, mostly as my #4, sometimes as my #5!
Peyton Manning is not going to be a QB1 in normal sized leagues.
Shrood owners will have read my QB list in the Andrew Luck passage above and thought “Hey Mr Fantasy King, you forgot Peyton Manning!??” but now, Mr Fantasy King did not forget Peyton Manning. I have him around QB17. After Ryan Fitzpatrick. I know most people are probably tired of talking about Peyton Manning but let me just highlight some things:
The neck thing is over-rated. Any medical prophessional will tell you that the neck is healed and he is no greater risk of neck injury than any other player. That said:
He’s old. Not Brett Farve old, but he’s 36. He was not the same Peyton Manning in his last year with the Colts, and now he’s older than that.
He hasn’t played football in over a year. Duh.
He is not in his comfy womfy Colts system anymore. He doesn’t have his binkeys like Jeff Saturday or Marvin Harrison or Reggie Wayne. I’m not saying Manning was not a great player, he’s one of the best of all time, but he’s also a control freak. He pilots the offense in a very maticulous way. Colts wh played with him knew and understand what Manning knew and understanded. He’s with a whole new crew now, and I have no idea how cerebral they are, but I do know that they’re jsut getting to know each other. all of those things Manning had for years upon years, the anticipation, the memory, the comfort, that cannot be built in a few months. I don’t think they’re going to be among the top 10 passing teams (attempts-wise) and I don’t think he’s going to be as good as he was even two years ago.
When you factor in risks relating to his nerve tissue and arm strength, I would not want him as my QB1. My ranking reflects the risk.
I acknolwedge that if he can “get it together,” he has some upside, but the main problem is his price is WAY to high. Not only is he being drafted as a top 10 QB, but he’s being done so at the 38th pick. The 4th round is way too high. Even if he has a good year, he will not be out-scoring the 10th, 11th, 12th QB that you can get several rounds later by enough to justify that price.
Stay away.
Pro tip - get a top 5 quarterback.
Historically, people say that you can wait on quarterback bcause while they often score the most points, they have the lowest drop-off through the depth of the position. This is true for guys in the 6/7-12/13 range, but we have recently seen a divergence. The top 4-5 QB’s are basically in a class of themselves, and THEY outscore their peers by a lot, very similarly on a % basis to RB’s.
Even if it’s 4 points for passing TD’s and PPR, unless your league has really deep starting requirements, like several extra non-QB flexes, I consider it absolutely essential to get Brady, BRees, Rodgers, or Stafford. Newton is on the cusp to me, which is why I say 4/5. I will take him but not in the late 1st/early 2nd. The other guys I will.
Let everyone else be “smart” and wait on QB - sit in the mid/late 1st and grab a stud QB and a second tier RB like Murray/Forte/etc., then watch the WR’s fall in your lap in the middle round. Laugh all the way to tha bank.
Thank you for your time and consideration, enjoy the rest of your drafts.
REGARDS,
THE FANTASY KING
PLEASE ENJOY! Forgive the stream of conshisnuss format, I am just riffing here.
Andrew Luck will be a top 12 quarterback in 2012.
Despite the predilictions of many probnomogators, the Colts dot appear to think that they are at the outset of a long rebuilding phaze. They retained the aging Reggie Wayne (and made a serious attempt to retain Garcon as well if reports can be believed), did not make a serious effort to trade Mathis or Freeney despite their scheme change and Freeney being the highest paid player in the NFL, and they just traded a future 2nd round pick for help at CB. They have also surrounded their new franchise quarterback with an array of intriguing, complimentary weapons. Wayne, Fleener, Allen, Hilton, Brazill and, yes, THE FANTASY KING SUPER SLEEPER Donnie Avery is a formidable group in my opinion.
The only weakness might be an unspectacular group of RB;s, which actually enhances my view of Luck because I think they will be relying on the pass more. This thought is also supported by what I think may be a wobbly Colts defense as it awkwardly steps into a 3-4, which I expect will not go smoothly in year 1, again, requiring Luck to throw more.
I have zero question about his ability, and I think the situation sets up hell. Here are the quarterbacks I have ranked ahead of him for 2012:
Tom Brady
Aaron Rodgers
Drew Brees
Cam Newton
Matthew Stafford
Matt Ryan
Michael Vick*
Tony Romo
Philip Rivers
Andrew Luck
Eli Manning
Robert Griffin of the Third
In a 12 team league with normal scoring, I have no problem taking Luck as my 1A in a committee. He can currently be had pretty late.
TANGENTAL EPIPHANY: Reggie Wayne will be a top 15 WR at bargain price. I do not feels like I have to explain why I think this.
BRANDON LLOYD IS GOING TO BE A TOP 5 WR
Everyone seemed on board with this prediction, or at least with the possibility of it, when Lloyd joined the Patriots. Now, there seems to be a confluence of circumstanches that are causing people to drop him down:
High profile extensions of Gronk and Hernandez focusing the mentality of fantasy footballers on how the tighends are going to be the biggest part of the offense.
The brief attention spent on Wes Welker.
Lloyd’s lack of pre-season production to date (1 catch for 12 yards)
It seems now that Llyd has fallen victim to the fears of “too many targets” in New England.
1 catch, 9 yards
Any idea what the above is?
That was Randy Moss’ stat line for the entire 2007 pre-season. That’s correct, the season he broke the single season touchdown record (along with Brady).
This is more than “it’s just the pre-season.” This was, in my opinion, a deliberate attempt by New England to mask what they were about to unleech on the league. They knew what they had, they didn’t see a reason to flaunt it and tip their hand. Brandon Lloyd is not Randy Moss, but I believe something similar is happening here. They’re not hiding Lloyd or ignoring him...but they are downplaying him.
The Patriots have the best offense in the league, and Lloyd has a skill set that nobody else on that team has - he is unique in what he can do as compared to what the other’s do. I think he easily has double digit touchdowns and over 1,300 yards. We know Brady is capable of supporting those numbers, and we know Lloyd is capable of catching them. This is not a hard one.
You can draft Lloyd as your WR2 right now or WR1 if you’re waiting on WR (which is wise). I have 11 teams with Lloyd/Wayne combo. Think about it.
Waiting on TE? Witten is your target.
Nothing like a bleeding spleen to kill someone’s ADP. This has been covered add nozium by Jene Bramel and other experts, but Witten is going to be fine for the majority of the season. And once he is back, we know that he is 100% fine and that the spleen will not be a problem anymore because they could not let him back unless they knew that to be true.
Take Witten late, get laughed at for taking a guy with internal bleeding, and hold your finger high in the air. The finger of victorie.
Stop drafting Jonathan Stewart as “the next.” He’s not. Just stop.
This applies to all formats, redraft, dynasty, flex, PPR, double reverse lineup, etc. He is in a platoon. That is not going to change. DeAngello Williams is very good. Please just sto this, I get asked about Stewart from my base more than any other player, I can’t even write out my knowledge on this one - just trust me - STOP.
Titus Young - we sorta see it coming but we still don’t.
This is a pretty obvious one. Some of us are high on him, but when we look back we will realize we were not as high as we should have been. He is going to break out. He is the #2 target on an explosive offense that has no running game to speak off. Pettigrew may out-target him this year, but I doubt it. Young has talent, and the perfect situation, he is still going way too low. I think he’ll end up being a WR2 this year, especially in non-PPR, and right now he is going as WR #41. Absolutely ridonkulous. ALL of those 11 Lloyd/Wayne teams also have Titus Young, mostly as my #4, sometimes as my #5!
Peyton Manning is not going to be a QB1 in normal sized leagues.
Shrood owners will have read my QB list in the Andrew Luck passage above and thought “Hey Mr Fantasy King, you forgot Peyton Manning!??” but now, Mr Fantasy King did not forget Peyton Manning. I have him around QB17. After Ryan Fitzpatrick. I know most people are probably tired of talking about Peyton Manning but let me just highlight some things:
The neck thing is over-rated. Any medical prophessional will tell you that the neck is healed and he is no greater risk of neck injury than any other player. That said:
He’s old. Not Brett Farve old, but he’s 36. He was not the same Peyton Manning in his last year with the Colts, and now he’s older than that.
He hasn’t played football in over a year. Duh.
He is not in his comfy womfy Colts system anymore. He doesn’t have his binkeys like Jeff Saturday or Marvin Harrison or Reggie Wayne. I’m not saying Manning was not a great player, he’s one of the best of all time, but he’s also a control freak. He pilots the offense in a very maticulous way. Colts wh played with him knew and understand what Manning knew and understanded. He’s with a whole new crew now, and I have no idea how cerebral they are, but I do know that they’re jsut getting to know each other. all of those things Manning had for years upon years, the anticipation, the memory, the comfort, that cannot be built in a few months. I don’t think they’re going to be among the top 10 passing teams (attempts-wise) and I don’t think he’s going to be as good as he was even two years ago.
When you factor in risks relating to his nerve tissue and arm strength, I would not want him as my QB1. My ranking reflects the risk.
I acknolwedge that if he can “get it together,” he has some upside, but the main problem is his price is WAY to high. Not only is he being drafted as a top 10 QB, but he’s being done so at the 38th pick. The 4th round is way too high. Even if he has a good year, he will not be out-scoring the 10th, 11th, 12th QB that you can get several rounds later by enough to justify that price.
Stay away.
Pro tip - get a top 5 quarterback.
Historically, people say that you can wait on quarterback bcause while they often score the most points, they have the lowest drop-off through the depth of the position. This is true for guys in the 6/7-12/13 range, but we have recently seen a divergence. The top 4-5 QB’s are basically in a class of themselves, and THEY outscore their peers by a lot, very similarly on a % basis to RB’s.
Even if it’s 4 points for passing TD’s and PPR, unless your league has really deep starting requirements, like several extra non-QB flexes, I consider it absolutely essential to get Brady, BRees, Rodgers, or Stafford. Newton is on the cusp to me, which is why I say 4/5. I will take him but not in the late 1st/early 2nd. The other guys I will.
Let everyone else be “smart” and wait on QB - sit in the mid/late 1st and grab a stud QB and a second tier RB like Murray/Forte/etc., then watch the WR’s fall in your lap in the middle round. Laugh all the way to tha bank.
Thank you for your time and consideration, enjoy the rest of your drafts.
REGARDS,
THE FANTASY KING
Eats hawks for breakfast
