Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
I'm certain we discussed his strategy some time ago. Real Sports did a profile on him tonight.
Interesting guy.
Interesting guy.
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The HS coach who never punts and always onside kicks (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Raider Nation
- Start date
Deamon
Footballguy
thanks, that was really interesting. Wonder why more coaches don't run the numbers and go for it on 4th and 1 more.
Amused to Death
Footballguy
That's one thing that's been disappointing about Chip Kelly, he was supposed to be that coach. His rep coming to the Eagles was he went for it more often on 4th down and he was supposed to go for a 2pt conversion more often.
Insein
Footballguy
Don't know if he had the personnel to do it. Let's see what he does this year.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
I wonder what he thought watching Mike McCarthy go into the fetal position at the end of the NFCC game.
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
Agree with this, and I guess we will see what the Broncos do this year with their on-field analytics guy.
Deamon
Footballguy
ya, would be surprised if it was only this though. If it's SUCH a no brainer, I would think the overwhelming success rate would defeat that fear.
Deamon
Footballguy
With the rule change, we can bet more teams go for 2... especially philly. Especially if TT Makes the team.
Insein
Footballguy
I think with Murray and Mathews, the 4th and shorts will be more automatic go for its. If he keeps Tebow, he's going for two.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
I'm disappointed that Maurile hasn't weighed in with some fancy math stuff yet. 
buck naked
Footballguy
I loved that show last night. You have to respect a guy who thinks completely outside the box. This coming year, they are practicing multiple plays with laterals, rugby style. How fantastic!
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Ted Mullins
Footballguy
Yeah, I just saw the thing about the laterals the other day. I love seeing this kind of stuff, football culture/thinking can be so dogmatic.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/sports/wp/2015/08/13/the-highly-successful-high-school-coach-who-never-punts-has-another-radical-idea/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/sports/wp/2015/08/13/the-highly-successful-high-school-coach-who-never-punts-has-another-radical-idea/
How does he know all these fancy percentages if he never punts or kicks off? Since his team is changing each year, I would think a good vs bad offense and good vs bad defense(and strengths/weaknesses therein) would completely skew the numbers he uses to baseline everything.
Obviously if he is winning that is all that matters, but I don't buy that this is all math based as he by definition self-limits the stats he can analyze.
I suppose you could get those stats in practice, but I don't buy a one-size fits all for your team vs opponents and their strength/weaknesses.
The lack of accurate kicking specialists like you would have in the NFL skews it even further in his favor, so I don't buy for a bit this translates to the NFL.
Obviously if he is winning that is all that matters, but I don't buy that this is all math based as he by definition self-limits the stats he can analyze.
I suppose you could get those stats in practice, but I don't buy a one-size fits all for your team vs opponents and their strength/weaknesses.
The lack of accurate kicking specialists like you would have in the NFL skews it even further in his favor, so I don't buy for a bit this translates to the NFL.
lrarkansas
Footballguy
Watched Pulaski Academy for years. Don't be too enamored over coach Kelley. He built up the program by recruiting (because Pulaski Academy is a private school), and by playing small Arkansas public schools (less than 10,000 population). Any system should work if you can recruit from the largest city in the state and play mainly smaller schools. I would like to see if he would have been successful at a public school or college. He reminds me of the little league coach that grabs the best players in the city and goes undefeated in city league play. Just don't like seeing teams with an unfair advantage going for onside kicks and 2 point conversions with minutes (sometimes seconds) left in the game being up by 60+ points like PA always does.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
I get it with going for it on 4th and short, going for 2, etc.
Don't get the onside kick thing. Much lower percentage play, I imagine especially with HS level kickers.
Don't get the onside kick thing. Much lower percentage play, I imagine especially with HS level kickers.
buck naked
Footballguy
You need to watch the Real Sports special. They practice several different ways to kick the ball on the onside kicks. Really interesting stuff.
Amused to Death
Footballguy
BeaverCleaver
Footballguy
Better him than Chase.I'm disappointed that Maurile hasn't weighed in with some fancy math stuff yet.
cheese
Footballguy
You have to factor in avg starting position. In HS it's not even close to the NFL which makes onsides kicks a better play. I don't know exact stats, but I'd say you're looking at about 38 yard line on AVG vs about 47 yard line on avg failed onside kick. In NFL, kicking it deep gets you at least 10 yards more on average. Some things that are great ideas at HS level should not be applied to the NFL.
JamesTheScot
Footballguy
I think part of it is that when you take a success rate, you are lumping into the sample all sorts of different people and variables so people don't really trust it.
For the 2-point success rate, you are coming up with an overall %, but it's a result of having the best offenses' and the worst offenses' numbers mashed up together. And if you try to isolate the numbers and look at the best and worst teams at doing the 2-point conversion, you get into the question of whether or not your sample size is really large enough. Even if you lump 4 or 5 seasons together for a single team and analyze that, how much did their personnel and coaching staff change over that period of time? Some seasons might have a key OL on IR. Some seasons might be before a stud WR got drafted. Some seasons may have had a terrible OC who couldn't call a good play in any down and distance situation.
I guess the theory is that it all averages out in the end. But the coach doesn't really have the luxury of playing the averages. He knows that his particular odds are worse in that particular moment because he's lost his best LT to injury and his RB is gassed on the sideline after the long run that scored. He also is calculating how his team has played up to that point in the game. The problem is he doesn't have a supercomputer on the sideline that spits out a specific number for his particular team in that specific situation that tells him what his individual odds are given his very particular roster situation. For all he knows, his team in that moment is the one that's keeping the overall % DOWN to 50%.
I think the coaches tend to live game to game. And those wins are determined by what happens during those 60 minutes, not league wide or over the course of multiple seasons. If you need to win today, the higher % play is always going to look better unless desperation forces you into the higher risk alternative.
To put it another way, if I make 50% of my 2-point conversions, but the one I miss is in the last minute of my week 3 game and I lose, and the one I make is in the first minute of my week 4 game, knowing that I am averaging 1 point per attempt over those 2 attempts doesn't take the L off my record and doesn't necessarily feel likes it's a big advantage towards getting a W in week 4. A seemingly wise man once said, "it's not just the odds, it's also the stakes". Down 1 point in the last minute of a game is much different than being down one in the first minute of a game.
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Sabertooth
Footballguy
Very little chance that an onside kick is returned for a touchdown though too. I don't know that I've ever seen that.
Ted Mullins
Footballguy
The part about him having a substantial talent advantage is interesting, that was not mentioned in the stuff I've read so far. Kinda ruins the fun for me 
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