The IDP Dynasty Thread (1 Viewer)

[Jene Bramel]

One of the best ongoing threads in the Shark Pool is the catch-all thread with rankings, analysis and discussion of all things dynasty related. We hope to do something similar here.

This thread may not be the same as the SP thread, in that many of us believe that the window for defensive players in dynasty leagues is not much longer than a single season in most cases. However, there's plenty of general strategy to discuss, lots of young players with potential to debate every season and hopefully many will chime in with their rankings.

We hope that many of you dynasty leaguers will chime in with your questions, thoughts and analysis here. A number of our staffers are likely to drop in with rankings and philosophy along the way.

Let's try to keep the discussion as general as possible, leaving most specific team issues to the AC forum. If there's an underlying issue within a specific trade, cap or waiver question that's pertinent to all, feel free to post it, but we'd really like to see this thread evolve into a haven for discussion and analysis that everyone can use rather than devolve into a glorified advice thread. Compare and contrast, general strategy, rankings and tiers discussions, trade thoughts and strategy and more will hopefully drive this thread into a one-stop shop of sorts for great dynasty discussion.

That's the theory anyway.

Let's have at it.

 

[Illegal Pants Downfield]

Great idea, guys...this is gonna be $$.

 

[BearsFan]

What's happening with the PHI FS/SS position?

Mikell was on the field for >1000 snaps and didn't produce great tackle #s as a SS.

 

[Maggot Brain]

What's happening with the PHI FS/SS position?Mikell was on the field for >1000 snaps and didn't produce great tackle #s as a SS.

I look for an open competition next year in Philly's safety rotation. When Bradley went down with the ACL is was expected that Mikell's production would soar this year. He really disappointed IMO.

 

[Jene Bramel]

What's happening with the PHI FS/SS position?Mikell was on the field for >1000 snaps and didn't produce great tackle #s as a SS.

I still like Mikell, though he didn't produce as much as I had hoped. 70 solos is a reasonable number and his coverage peripherals were okay. Philadelphia's tackle opportunity was average, as was the run/pass split faced. Mikell did lead the team in tackles, but I'd guess that his rate stats (percentage of team solos, solo per tackle opp, etc) were just average, too. His 2008 was similar.He looks to be a consistent DB2/DB3 with some weekly upside, but not much more right now.I think the FS spot (and therefore the interchangeable nature of the scheme) remains unclear. Demps and Harris weren't particuarly impressive and I'd expect the Eagles to want a better cover safety than Sean Jones.

 

[snellman]

This is why I love FBG

 

[Jene Bramel]

Part of the motivation behind this thread, at least for me, was to force myself to do dynasty rankings more frequently, but do them on my terms.

My dynasty philosophy with defensive players tends to be simple. Recognize that the nature of defensive football is fluid and the player pool is so deep that the turnover – even among stud talents – is quick and windows are short. Err heavily on the side of current year projections and upside. When possible, dump replacement level talent for future upside. Roster decisions flow from there.

That, however, makes rankings tough for me. Especially given the diversity of scoring systems and range of roster shaping philosophies with which we’re faced. How do you account for the aging, but still talented player versus the upside potential of a young player who hasn’t been put into a good opportunity yet? How much do you value 2011 in your 2010 rankings given the turnover and the knowledge that you’re likely rostering fewer defensive players as depth than offensive players in most situations?

So, I think I’m going to try something new with this thread. I’m going to try to merge my redraft tiering philosophy (erring on the side of 2010 value) with the dynasty window/upside philosophy (weighting 2011 upside over 2010 replacement level value) without entirely confusing the list. Over the next few weeks, I’m going to try to tier out players at each position into a rough rank list. I’m going to use FBG/balanced scoring as my guide, with notes on big play values along the way.

Comments, challenges and heckling will be appreciated. I think it'd be cool to see some other rank lists and special tiers from anyone else willing to give them a shot.

 

[Sinn Fein]

For any dynasty analysis - I think keeping an eye 1-year ahead is appropriate. More than that is really too much conjecture - given the nature of this game. So, for now focusing on next year, and by the middle of next season, looking ahead to 2011.

One of the challenges to projecting IDP performance is that I think the IDP's are much more susceptible to the opponent (and unfortunately the scorekeeper) than vice versa (Offense players will generally perform with slight variations - hence the phrase "always start your studs") But, I think defensive players are very situational - even the studs like Allen or Willis.

I don't have the wherewithal to do this, but I think any good projection system has to factor in the schedule - both historical and future. There should be some way to "normalize" the data - to account for big games against bad opponents. I am more familiar with this in baseball terms where a lot of research has gone into park effects, and a few outlets now have park-neutral stats to make comparisons easier.

Similarly - if you look (and I know this has been done) at snap opportunities v. run and v. pass - identifying players who had an uptick in tackles because they faced more running plays than normal, or significantly who had a "bad" year based on who they played (or where they played if the scorekeeper is stingy with assists for example). Then translate that into the expected performance of the teams on next year's schedule. Who will likely be facing a run-heavy schedule? Who is going to have a bad offense, and thus be on the field for more plays?

I think the folks in this thread already do a tremendous job distinguishing positions based on the various schemes.

 

[Jene Bramel]

I don't have the wherewithal to do this, but I think any good projection system has to factor in the schedule - both historical and future. There should be some way to "normalize" the data - to account for big games against bad opponents. I am more familiar with this in baseball terms where a lot of research has gone into park effects, and a few outlets now have park-neutral stats to make comparisons easier.Similarly - if you look (and I know this has been done) at snap opportunities v. run and v. pass - identifying players who had an uptick in tackles because they faced more running plays than normal, or significantly who had a "bad" year based on who they played (or where they played if the scorekeeper is stingy with assists for example). Then translate that into the expected performance of the teams on next year's schedule. Who will likely be facing a run-heavy schedule? Who is going to have a bad offense, and thus be on the field for more plays?

This is a great point, and I've often thought about how to adjust for strength of schedule. Unfortunately, I always come to the conclusion that small sample sizes, isolated matchups within matchups and injuries play such a big role that those adjustments must be read in context, too. Plus, I'm not enough of a mathematician to know how to adjust for those confounding factors. If anyone does, I've got plenty of ideas. A few games into the season, there's usually enough in the trends we do track -- tackle opportunity, pressure numbers, run/pass splits, completions allowed, etc -- to have a good forward look for the remainder of the season. And I like to incorporate outliers in those numbers when considering next season's projections.Put another way, was it clear that MIA and NYJ would replace WAS and NYG as top matchups this season? That CIN and NO would be clearly better matchups than PIT and CAR for much of the year? That DET would be a better matchup than expected? That's the part I struggle with when considering SOS in projections.Anybody have any ideas on how to make adjusted tackles work?

 

[Sinn Fein]

First, I don't think you can accurately predict, absent a regime change, changes in offensive output in future seasons.

But, I do think you can normalize this year's data in making predictions for next season.

I am not a mathematician by any stretch, but in my mind I was thinking you could look at all stats for a given position/scheme to determine an "average" output. So if you took all MLB in a 4-3 and totaled all their stats for the season and said here is an average MLB. Then you can look and identify teams that gave up higher or lower than average at specific positions and determine an average score based on a specific schedule.

So using some gross simplifications - lets say Players A and B average 10 points per game - 160 points using some standard scoring.

But, looking at Player A's schedule the average points against was 8; for Player B it was 12.

I think we are inclined to take that first stat and say these are relatively equal players, but looking at the 2nd stat I would say that Player A is the better player.

All things else being equal I would rank Player A ahead of Player B. If they both played the same schedule, Player A should outperform Player B (unless age or injury or other playing time factors are in play)

That still leaves the issue of how to interpret next year's schedule - if the same thing occurs, then A has been over-rated, and B under rated. Maybe you just have to make an assumption that the 2009 numbers will translate to 2010 - with some subjective tweaks based on coaching or personnel changes.

Makes my head hurt just thinking about all the issues that go into making good projections.

 

[lyon812]

Nothing to add at the moment, but wanted to chime in and say great idea, I don't know why we didn't have this thread earlier. =)

 

[Dave Larkin]

It's a great idea to start this discussion thread for IDP Dynasty. I'm considering doing a little bit of scouting of defensive players in the college bowl games being played at the moment. Jene's RTD article from Week 16 should help out a lot. In case anyone hasn't read it, it basically details some of the traits that one should look for when scouting certain positions on the defensive side of the ball. It was a great read.

Anyway, I'll post my personal scouting reports here as soon as they are done for your reading pleasure.

Does anyone have any suggestions as to which players I should scout?

I was considering starting off with LB Daryl Washington, TCU or CB Joe Haden, Florida.

 

[Portis 26]

I've spent about a decade in IDP dynasty leagues, here are a few of my thoughts:

- DEs who both put up solid tackle and sack numbers are absolute gold - they're like elite RBs, to be treasured and hoarded

- Top DBs always emerge out of nowhere. You could have done great this season by picking up guys like Jairus Byrd, Brandon McGowan etc. You just have to keep an eagle eye on their stats and be very active in waivers

- The first two or three weeks of the regular season are critical for picking up surprise IDP starters (and there are always lots). You want to vacuum them all up before anyone notices.

- It's better to draft offensive prospects rather than defensive prospects in rookie drafts. It's highly unlikely your defensive prospect will turn out to be better than anything already out there on waivers, but it's smart to stockpile RBs in particular

- In fact stockpile short speedy RBs. Jerome Harrison and Justin Forsett were on waivers in many dynasty leagues before this season. Guys like Slaton and Portis and even Brian Westbrook (shows my age) were not that highly ranked in dynasty rookie drafts.

- If I have the choice of starting safeties or CBs, I'll nearly always go for the S because they are so much more consistent

- 3-4 ends are fools' good, you want the edge guy in a 4-3

- Or the WLB or MLB in a 4-3 - rarely the SLB

- 3-4 LBs can be inconsistent, but Steelers LBs always seem to put up great numbers

- If you have to start a CB go for a Cover 2 guy

- You want your MLBs fast. The faster the better. All the top guys are. Don't draft the lumbering run stoppers, draft the all over the field tackle dynamos.

- It's rare for a DT to do much. You really want the ends.

- In inaugural IDP dynasty drafts over-value elite IDP players and don't bother with the rest for ages. You want a shot at guys like Allen, Beason, Rudd and Willis in rounds 6-7-8 but don't continue to stockpile IDPs once the very top ones have gone, the relative value of IDPs falls off dramatically after the top ones

- Stockpile RBs on talent not situation. I remember I was mocked for drafting Ricky Williams in round 30 of an inaugural draft 4-5 years ago. I think he was playing for Toronto then.

- If you want the next Vincent Jackson stockpile raw but very big, fast and strong WRs and sit on them for a few years

- But short and speedy is the next WR trend. Smurfs are back. DeSean Jackson et al.

- Watch out for changes in scheme. Kampman fell from grace because of the move to a 3-4 but if he changes team back a 4-3, watch out

- Trust your eyes. I remember seeing Jermichael Finley make a catch downfield before he emerged and thinking who the heck is that?

- Follow George Allen's dictum "the future is now" in dynasty. I've seen guys craft elaborately constructed teams over the years and they lose and they lose and they lose and suddenly their amazing stars of the future are approaching retirement. The dynasty teams who consistently win are those who want to win now.

- Don't value draft choices as much as NFL teams do. A rookie draft pick is worth something if it's a top 5 and can secure a top back but after that... not so much. It's slim pickings by the end of the first round. I'd much rather finish in the playoffs every year and then trade my 1.10, 1.11 or 1.12 rookie pick for a great player. 1st round picks have a magical allure and are consistently overvalued.

 

[Jene Bramel]

I'm starting with the linebackers, as, though there's an argument that the DL position is where you can find the most relative advantage, backers are generally the anchors of most dynasty rosters and draw the most attention of most dynasty owners.

TIER 1

1 PATRICK WILLIS

2 JON BEASON

3 CURTIS LOFTON

It'll be surprising if these three aren't the consensus top three ranked backers in the minds of most dynasty leaguers.

TIER 1A

4 BARRETT RUUD

5 JAMES LAURINAITIS

6 DJ WILLIAMS

7 DEMECO RYANS

8 JEROD MAYO

9 D'QWELL JACKSON

This tier rounds out those players that I'd be willing to target as early priorities in a startup dynasty league. I think this tier would shuffle a bit and definitely flows into the next tier in most redraft leagues, but this group would seem to be safe into 2011 as guys with consistent 90 solo tackle upside. All of these players are worth debating, but I thought I'd just let the names percolate for discussion.

 

[PhantomJB]

Great thread.

As Jene and others point out, there are way too many variables, less transparency and less general info, plus things seem to change more quickly for D players vs. O players. Therefore, any attempt to come up with too precise a mathematical formula will probably end up analogous to a weatherman predicting a hurricane when any sailor would just look at the horizon and say, "Red sky at night, put away the umbrella..."

However, it does seem that a majority of the "critical success factors" have already been identified in various places in this and other IDP forum threads. Just to stoke the discusson, I'm going to list a number from what I've observed:

General

League Point System (big play or tackle-heavy?)

Positional Depth (what's the size of the point delta between the studs and the also-rans and how many studs are there? huge in DL this year)

Player-Specific

Talent (obvious)

Upside Potential (aging vet (e.g. Fletcher/Ray-Ray) vs. up-and-comer (e.g. Hawthorne))

Every-Down Player/Potential (Lofton comes to mind)

Injury Status (coming off injury may have hampered Osi this year)

Track Record (related to upside potential, but more specifically has this player performed consistently year after year or is there very little performance history to go on?)

Team-Specific

Scheme (e.g. A.Winfield in Cover 2, Vilma in 3-4 vs. 4-3)

Tackle Oppty (L.Foote for Lions, Lauranaitis for Rams)

Schedule (4-3 MLB facing run-heavy Os any given week)

Feel free to add/challenge.

Once this general list has been solidified, the next step could be a general weighting system, again, without trying to be too anal. For example, Talent and Scheme probably would far outweigh Tackle Oppty and Schedule.

But because things change so quickly, the weighting systems needs to be flexible for any given week/year. For example, Injury Status probably trumps everything else depending on the nature of the injury.

In terms of an algorithm, anything that is too specific will always result in getting balled up in your shorts. But identifying all the major success factors and understanding their relationship to one another could be a good start.

After that, it likely all comes down to the most important factor of all.

Gut Feel

 

[Dolphins Homer]

I'm surprised Jon Beason isn't in the 1A category...

 

[alg]

I'm surprised Jon Beason isn't in the 1A category...

Agreed. Seems his production really feel off with the emergence of T Davis. I know Beason was banged up at the beginning of the year, but Davis was on fire.

 

[broncofan13000]

I've spent about a decade in IDP dynasty leagues, here are a few of my thoughts:

- DEs who both put up solid tackle and sack numbers are absolute gold - they're like elite RBs, to be treasured and hoarded

- Top DBs always emerge out of nowhere. You could have done great this season by picking up guys like Jairus Byrd, Brandon McGowan etc. You just have to keep an eagle eye on their stats and be very active in waivers

- The first two or three weeks of the regular season are critical for picking up surprise IDP starters (and there are always lots). You want to vacuum them all up before anyone notices.

- It's better to draft offensive prospects rather than defensive prospects in rookie drafts. It's highly unlikely your defensive prospect will turn out to be better than anything already out there on waivers, but it's smart to stockpile RBs in particular

- In fact stockpile short speedy RBs. Jerome Harrison and Justin Forsett were on waivers in many dynasty leagues before this season. Guys like Slaton and Portis and even Brian Westbrook (shows my age) were not that highly ranked in dynasty rookie drafts.

- If I have the choice of starting safeties or CBs, I'll nearly always go for the S because they are so much more consistent

- 3-4 ends are fools' good, you want the edge guy in a 4-3

- Or the WLB or MLB in a 4-3 - rarely the SLB

- 3-4 LBs can be inconsistent, but Steelers LBs always seem to put up great numbers

- If you have to start a CB go for a Cover 2 guy

- You want your MLBs fast. The faster the better. All the top guys are. Don't draft the lumbering run stoppers, draft the all over the field tackle dynamos.

- It's rare for a DT to do much. You really want the ends.

- In inaugural IDP dynasty drafts over-value elite IDP players and don't bother with the rest for ages. You want a shot at guys like Allen, Beason, Rudd and Willis in rounds 6-7-8 but don't continue to stockpile IDPs once the very top ones have gone, the relative value of IDPs falls off dramatically after the top ones

- Stockpile RBs on talent not situation. I remember I was mocked for drafting Ricky Williams in round 30 of an inaugural draft 4-5 years ago. I think he was playing for Toronto then.

- If you want the next Vincent Jackson stockpile raw but very big, fast and strong WRs and sit on them for a few years

- But short and speedy is the next WR trend. Smurfs are back. DeSean Jackson et al.

- Watch out for changes in scheme. Kampman fell from grace because of the move to a 3-4 but if he changes team back a 4-3, watch out

- Trust your eyes. I remember seeing Jermichael Finley make a catch downfield before he emerged and thinking who the heck is that?

- Follow George Allen's dictum "the future is now" in dynasty. I've seen guys craft elaborately constructed teams over the years and they lose and they lose and they lose and suddenly their amazing stars of the future are approaching retirement. The dynasty teams who consistently win are those who want to win now.

- Don't value draft choices as much as NFL teams do. A rookie draft pick is worth something if it's a top 5 and can secure a top back but after that... not so much. It's slim pickings by the end of the first round. I'd much rather finish in the playoffs every year and then trade my 1.10, 1.11 or 1.12 rookie pick for a great player. 1st round picks have a magical allure and are consistently overvalued.

I'm starting with the linebackers, as, though there's an argument that the DL position is where you can find the most relative advantage, backers are generally the anchors of most dynasty rosters and draw the most attention of most dynasty owners.

TIER 1

1 PATRICK WILLIS

2 JON BEASON

3 CURTIS LOFTON

It'll be surprising if these three aren't the consensus top three ranked backers in the minds of most dynasty leaguers.

TIER 1A

4 BARRETT RUUD

5 JAMES LAURINAITIS

6 DJ WILLIAMS

7 DEMECO RYANS

8 JEROD MAYO

9 D'QWELL JACKSON

This tier rounds out those players that I'd be willing to target as early priorities in a startup dynasty league. I think this tier would shuffle a bit and definitely flows into the next tier in most redraft leagues, but this group would seem to be safe into 2011 as guys with consistent 90 solo tackle upside. All of these players are worth debating, but I thought I'd just let the names percolate for discussion.

Where is Tulloch ranked going into next year? Does he have a chance to be top 10-15 dynasty wise?

 

[Moniker]

I'm surprised Jon Beason isn't in the 1A category...

Same here, unless the Panthers move him to WLB and let Conner play the middle.Also surprised that Ryans is in the 1A category and Durant is not.

 

[Jene Bramel]

I'm surprised Jon Beason isn't in the 1A category...

Thomas Davis played through W9 (seven games total). He had two monster games and four games with four or fewer solos. He's a great player and the addition of the Tampa-2 playbook clearly helped him. His stat lines remained inconsistent, however, and he's facing an injury that's tough to recover from fully in the first season and the potential that his coaching staff and scheme changes.Jon Beason had 53 solos through the first eight games (Davis had 50). Beason had only three games of four or fewer tackles (all 13 other games were 6+ solo weeks). His big play potential flashed this season -- three sacks and continued solid coverage stats. He's now had three straight 105+ solo seasons. This year, he put those numbers up despite below average tackle opportunity and in a slightly tougher scheme for production.

If you can get Beason as the LB5-LB10 off the board next season (barring an unexpected offseason development), I think it's a huge get.

Where is Tulloch ranked going into next year? Does he have a chance to be top 10-15 dynasty wise?

In my first pass, gut instinct look at this, I put Tulloch with most of the names in Tier 1A -- the guys I feel have longer-term 90+ solo tackle upside. He's right on the cusp of this tier for me, but carries a hint of risk that Bulluck and Thornton recover impressively and shut him out of the nickel. He's a top fifteen dynasty player based on last year's performance for me and he'll be in my next tier.

Also surprised that Ryans is in the 1A category and Durant is not.

Ryans continues to get a bad rap. Sure, he's been dinged up and more inconsistent than we'd like. And he's not going to be the 110+ prospect we thought he might be after his rookie season as his surrounding cast and opportunity changes. However, this is a guy that has yet to have a season with fewer than 85 solos. Three of his four seasons have been 92+, which is his average over the past three years. That average puts him on the cusp of the top 12 every season. Demorrio Williams, Eric Barton, Will Witherspoon and the like come and go. Ryans is, at worst, a LB2 anchor with plenty of upside. Question his production when injured, but he's carving out a London Fletcher like existence. Knee and ankle injuries be damned, he's played every game for four straight seasons.I'm one of Durant's biggest champions and remain so. He's very close to belonging in this tier. However, it's a big concern to me that he was being replaced by Russell Allen in 3-4 packages during the second half of the season. That suggests that his current coaches worry about him holding up as an ILB in the long term. Like the Tulloch argument above, it's just enough to worry about his role to bump him down a half tier.

-------------

I was expecting Laurinaitis to draw more comments. I think he and Jackson stand out as players whose talent doesn't fit with the others listed in these tiers. I'd be more worried about these two dropping out of the 1A tier sooner any of the others. Opportunity often trumps talent in defensive situations, but longer term, I'd rather have the talent than depend on surrounding cast/scheme to add 5-10 solos to someone's yearly totals each season.

 

[Moniker]

I was expecting Laurinaitis to draw more comments. I think he and Jackson stand out as players whose talent doesn't fit with the others listed in these tiers. I'd be more worried about these two dropping out of the 1A tier sooner any of the others. Opportunity often trumps talent in defensive situations, but longer term, I'd rather have the talent than depend on surrounding cast/scheme to add 5-10 solos to someone's yearly totals each season.

While Laurinaitis is no where near as talented as those in his tier, I believe that the situation in Saint Louis is going nowhere fast and that alone should keep him in that tier for at least another two years.

 

[buck56]

I would put David Harris in the 1a group before I would Durant.

I also agree w/ Jene that Beason belongs in the 1 group.

 

[PhantomJB]

I absolutely love the way Lofton plays but could he be overvalued a little? Comparing him with David Harris (who isn't even in the 1 or 1A tiers), for example...

Lofton Harris

SOLO 105 82

ASST 28 45

TOT 133 127

INT 0 2

SACK 0 5.5

FF 2 2

PD 2 3

Watching him on the field, Lofton with his stocky frame just doesn't seem to have the athleticism of guys like Willis and Beason and therefore not nearly as much big play potential. Zero sacks and zero INTs for a full season every down MLB in a 4-3 scheme would also seem to warrant a discount. Are people banking on future upside similar to the way he progressed btw 2008 and 2009?

 

[Anthony Borbely]

I think Beason has more pure talent and overall skills than any LB not named Patrick Willis and he finished 2nd in fantasy points and second in solos. He has had 106, 110, and 112 solos in his three seasons. Those are some sick numbers. I really don't see how he can be any lower than second among LBs.

 

[Jene Bramel]

I absolutely love the way Lofton plays but could he be overvalued a little? Comparing him with David Harris (who isn't even in the 1 or 1A tiers), for example...Watching him on the field, Lofton with his stocky frame just doesn't seem to have the athleticism of guys like Willis and Beason and therefore not nearly as much big play potential. Zero sacks and zero INTs for a full season every down MLB in a 4-3 scheme would also seem to warrant a discount. Are people banking on future upside similar to the way he progressed btw 2008 and 2009?

Lofton is tough for me. If you search for my posts on Lofton from April 2008-August 2008, you'll see I had many of the same reservations with Lofton. I didn't think his scouting reports suggested a dynamic, rangy, every-down talent that projected to clear LB1 upside year-in, year-out. His run support play and team solo percentages in his base defensive role in 2008 won me over, however.The Falcons' tackle opportunity this season was slightly above average and the rush attempts faced were above average, too. Injuries clearly limited him over the final month at times. If the Falcons improve their run support talent at LDE, CB and safety, Lofton's upside changes.For now, his performance to date makes him one of three or four players (with Ruud being the fourth I think) that I feel comfortable projecting 100+ solos over the next 2-3 years. The big play issue is concerning, but there were a couple of forced fumbles and another offseason of every-down seasoning may open up those columns a bit for him. Finally, it's worth noting again that the majority of my ranking/tier errors come from chasing upside.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Adding my second tiers here, as I'll be traveling much of the weekend and want to keep the good discussion flowing. Certainly don't want to close the discussion on the first tiers, but much of these guys flow together in the same debate.

There’s an argument to be made that the not-quite-clear-LB1-material tier is again likely to be 15-20 deep next season. But I think there’s room to push the high upside/high floor guys to the top and the lesser upside guys to the bottom of this tier. I’ve got this next group broken into four pretty close tiers, with the final tiers a limbo tier of sorts and the Tier 2 tweener tier.

TIER 2A

10 PAUL POSLUSZNY

11 JONATHAN VILMA

12 JUSTIN DURANT

13 STEPHEN TULLOCH

14 DAVID HARRIS

Separated this group as the guys I’m currently projecting to have a relatively safe midLB2 floor. I think each have 95 solo upside in the right role.

TIER 2B

15 KARLOS DANSBY

16 LONDON FLETCHER

17 RAY LEWIS

18 LANCE BRIGGS

19 NICK BARNETT

20 BRIAN CUSHING

21 GARY BRACKETT

This group reflects a couple of the biases I noted above. Bias one is to skew my dynasty rankings toward 2010 upside. Avoid Fletcher and Lewis if you like. I still see a strong chance at a LB2 floor with 90+ solo upside. The others I think are pretty sure bets to finish with 85+ and enough big plays to push them over the Tier 3 players to come.

TIER 2L-IMBO

22 KIRK MORRISON

23 STEWART BRADLEY

24 THOMAS DAVIS

25 EJ HENDERSON

Any of these players could rank 5-10 slots higher, depending on how the offseason goes for them. This group defines some of the difficulty with pure rank lists. Any of them could deservedly sit between LB15 and LB45 today. If you're drafting today, your personal risk-reward drafting philosophy applies.

TIER 2T-WEENER

T1 JAMES HARRISON (15-20)

T2 DEMARCUS WARE (15-20)

T3 LAMARR WOODLEY (25-30)

T4 ANTHONY SPENCER (25-35)

T5 CLAY MATTHEWS, JR (30-40)

T6 ELVIS DUMERVIL (30-45)

Parentheses denote the range I think I’m likely to rank them in the 2010 redraft rankings. I wouldn’t trust any of these players (still) as my LB1 in a balanced league. I think they’re best positioned behind at least one and more likely two other solid lineup options.

 

[Moniker]

I would put David Harris in the 1a group before I would Durant.

Really? I guess it would depend on if your scoring system is slanted towards big plays, but Harris totaled less than 5 solos in 8 of his 16 games this season while averaging 5.1 solos/game. Durant was under 5 solos in only 3 of his 13 games while averaging 6.2 solos/game.

 

[buck56]

I would put David Harris in the 1a group before I would Durant.

Really? I guess it would depend on if your scoring system is slanted towards big plays, but Harris totaled less than 5 solos in 8 of his 16 games this season while averaging 5.1 solos/game. Durant was under 5 solos in only 3 of his 13 games while averaging 6.2 solos/game.

Harris has a nose for the ball. He seems to have that football instinct, I could be wrong, but IMO he will finish in the top 10 LB's next year.Durant seems to to be a question mark in Jax. D. at the end of the season he wasnt even playing 3 downs. I think he has great potential, but i'm not sure the coaching staff is sold on him. He also is an injury concern for me.Speaking of injuries, I am supprised that Tatupu hasn't been mentioned yet. I know everyone has jumped on the Hawthorne bandwagon, but I think Tatupu has to much talent not to be a 3 down LB in seattle again next year. He is a little undersized and has a history of injuries, but when fully heathy he is a LB2 w/ upside IMO. He has big play capabilities and is good for a bunch of tackles. Jene, would be interested in where you would rank Lofa and what your opinion is on his place in seattle next year?

 

[Sinn Fein]

I'm starting with the linebackers, as, though there's an argument that the DL position is where you can find the most relative advantage, backers are generally the anchors of most dynasty rosters and draw the most attention of most dynasty owners.

TIER 1

1 PATRICK WILLIS

2 JON BEASON

3 CURTIS LOFTON

It'll be surprising if these three aren't the consensus top three ranked backers in the minds of most dynasty leaguers.

TIER 1A

4 BARRETT RUUD

5 JAMES LAURINAITIS

6 DJ WILLIAMS

7 DEMECO RYANS

8 JEROD MAYO

9 D'QWELL JACKSON

This tier rounds out those players that I'd be willing to target as early priorities in a startup dynasty league. I think this tier would shuffle a bit and definitely flows into the next tier in most redraft leagues, but this group would seem to be safe into 2011 as guys with consistent 90 solo tackle upside. All of these players are worth debating, but I thought I'd just let the names percolate for discussion.

Laurinaitis seems high. Is this based on opportunity or skill? (i.e. are we expecting St. Louis to be behind a lot, on the field for a lot of plays, and running plays in particular - or does Laurinaitis have the athleticism to be productive even if given fewer opportunities?)ETA - I just saw the other comments above about Laurinaitis - I agree that he is least likely to remain in this tier over the long haul. He seems to be decent, but more a product of opportunity.

 

[Dave Larkin]

Great discussion with some really top quality posts. I have to commend Portis 26 for his great post on the general guidelines for IDP Dynasty leagues. I'm joining my first IDP dynasty league this year and any information is obviously a big help.

Just on Jon Beason, I'm a firm believer that he'll be a top 3 MLB who will be in that 100-110 tackle range for many years to come. I watched every down of every Panthers game this year. Beason and the whole defense definitely improved their play in the second half of the season, putting up 3 turnovers on average over the final 10 games. Keep in mind also that Beason had a knee injury in preseason that really limited his effectiveness early on, hence we saw Davis emerge a little bit more and pick up the slack.

Beason's a stud LB in any IDP format, and should be trusted as such. There may even be a case for him to be the #1 LB in 2010.

Agree/disagree? Discuss!

 

[BearsFan]

Adding my second tiers here, as I'll be traveling much of the weekend and want to keep the good discussion flowing. Certainly don't want to close the discussion on the first tiers, but much of these guys flow together in the same debate.

There’s an argument to be made that the not-quite-clear-LB1-material tier is again likely to be 15-20 deep next season. But I think there’s room to push the high upside/high floor guys to the top and the lesser upside guys to the bottom of this tier. I’ve got this next group broken into four pretty close tiers, with the final tiers a limbo tier of sorts and the Tier 2 tweener tier.

TIER 2A

10 PAUL POSLUSZNY

11 JONATHAN VILMA

12 JUSTIN DURANT

13 STEPHEN TULLOCH

14 DAVID HARRIS

Separated this group as the guys I’m currently projecting to have a relatively safe midLB2 floor. I think each have 95 solo upside in the right role.

TIER 2B

15 KARLOS DANSBY

16 LONDON FLETCHER

17 RAY LEWIS

18 LANCE BRIGGS

19 NICK BARNETT

20 BRIAN CUSHING

21 GARY BRACKETT

This group reflects a couple of the biases I noted above. Bias one is to skew my dynasty rankings toward 2010 upside. Avoid Fletcher and Lewis if you like. I still see a strong chance at a LB2 floor with 90+ solo upside. The others I think are pretty sure bets to finish with 85+ and enough big plays to push them over the Tier 3 players to come.

TIER 2L-IMBO

22 KIRK MORRISON

23 STEWART BRADLEY

24 THOMAS DAVIS

25 EJ HENDERSON

Any of these players could rank 5-10 slots higher, depending on how the offseason goes for them. This group defines some of the difficulty with pure rank lists. Any of them could deservedly sit between LB15 and LB45 today. If you're drafting today, your personal risk-reward drafting philosophy applies.

TIER 2T-WEENER

T1 JAMES HARRISON (15-20)

T2 DEMARCUS WARE (15-20)

T3 LAMARR WOODLEY (25-30)

T4 ANTHONY SPENCER (25-35)

T5 CLAY MATTHEWS, JR (30-40)

T6 ELVIS DUMERVIL (30-45)

Parentheses denote the range I think I’m likely to rank them in the 2010 redraft rankings. I wouldn’t trust any of these players (still) as my LB1 in a balanced league. I think they’re best positioned behind at least one and more likely two other solid lineup options.

Stephen Cooper?Brian Urlacher?

 

[Pick]

- It's better to draft offensive prospects rather than defensive prospects in rookie drafts. It's highly unlikely your defensive prospect will turn out to be better than anything already out there on waivers,

Disagree with this strategy for deeper leagues.

 

[Portis 26]

- It's better to draft offensive prospects rather than defensive prospects in rookie drafts. It's highly unlikely your defensive prospect will turn out to be better than anything already out there on waivers,

Disagree with this strategy for deeper leagues.

If the prospect is likely to be a high-producing MLB or DE, ok. Everyone wants the next superstar IDP. But I wouldn't bother with others.

 

[Sinn Fein]

- It's better to draft offensive prospects rather than defensive prospects in rookie drafts. It's highly unlikely your defensive prospect will turn out to be better than anything already out there on waivers,

Disagree with this strategy for deeper leagues.

I guess it depends on your definition of "prospect" and the parameters of your league. But, in general terms, I agree that offensive prospects are better value than IDP prospects. I'll draft a rookie who will be starting - but will generally avoid IDP players who are not likely to play their first year, or be situational players. In most cases those players end up on the waiver wire at some point when the owner gives up on them.

 

[Pick]

I play in a 16-team, 58-man roster league so when I say deeper leagues I really mean deeper leagues.

Here's our draft 1st round:

Moreno, Knowshon DEN RB

Wells, Chris ARI RB

McCoy, LeSean PHI RB

Brown, Donald IND RB

Crabtree, Michael SFO WR

Harvin, Percy MIN WR

Nicks, Hakeem NYG WR

Greene, Shonn NYJ RB

Stafford, Matthew DET QB

Maclin, Jeremy PHI WR

Sanchez, Mark NYJ QB

Laurinaitis, James STL LB

Robiskie, Brian CLE WR

Curry, Aaron SEA LB

Matthews, Clay GBP LB

Heyward-Bey, Darrius OAK WR

The top offensive talent is gone very quickly. But as you can see the IDP talent is still very good even at the bottom of the first. I just think it's not wise to say "I'm not drafting any IDPs because I can find them on the WW". That doesn't work in every league.

 

[Big Log]

 

[johnnyboy8102]

-Beason, in my opinion, is a top 3 IDP LB. He has his shortcomings in real life with missed tackles (11 this season) but for IDP he is a stud.

-Lofton seems a bit over valued. In two seasons he has 1 sack, 0 int, 5 pd, 3 ff and 0 fr.

-I think Cushing should be higher. He is a tackle machine and is a big play machine with 4 sacks, 4 int, 10 pd this season.

-London Fletcher is in the same tier as Lofton to me. He gets his tackles but 1 of his 2 sacks this season was a touch of a QB who just slipped and just stayed down and his INT was a tip at the LOS that fell into his hands. He is still solid as they come for tackles though.

-I like David Harris as a a pass rusher (5.5 sacks) but his low total of 3 pd (2 on his INT's), low amount of solo tackles, and 0 tackles for loss have me slightly concerned.

-I don't have much of an upside for Urlacher. He has 1 forced fumble in his last 62 games, doesn't get sacks, and averaged 4.9 solos per game in '08. I have him at 95-100 total tackles and a very minimal amount of big plays.

-I would like to see more big play potential out of Mayo.

-I think Poz is underrated. In 12 games he had 87 solos (a 116 solo pace) and a number of big plays. Health is my only concern with him.

 

[Sinn Fein]

I play in a 16-team, 58-man roster league so when I say deeper leagues I really mean deeper leagues.

Here's our draft 1st round:

Moreno, Knowshon DEN RB

Wells, Chris ARI RB

McCoy, LeSean PHI RB

Brown, Donald IND RB

Crabtree, Michael SFO WR

Harvin, Percy MIN WR

Nicks, Hakeem NYG WR

Greene, Shonn NYJ RB

Stafford, Matthew DET QB

Maclin, Jeremy PHI WR

Sanchez, Mark NYJ QB

Laurinaitis, James STL LB

Robiskie, Brian CLE WR

Curry, Aaron SEA LB

Matthews, Clay GBP LB

Heyward-Bey, Darrius OAK WR

The top offensive talent is gone very quickly. But as you can see the IDP talent is still very good even at the bottom of the first. I just think it's not wise to say "I'm not drafting any IDPs because I can find them on the WW". That doesn't work in every league.

Not what I said - I don't view any of those guys a "prospects". To me a prospect is a guy that will not be starting for a couple of years down the road - that you have to keep on your roster while they are developing. I drafted Laurinaitis in our league at 1.16 with the specific intent that he would start at LB3 for me.Closest I came to having an IDP prospect on my team was picking up Cameron Wake in the off-season, but I dropped him pretty quickly when he was given a LB position. I could see drafting and holding a DE prospect - but again, I think it is too hard to really evaluate the progression of an IDP player.

 

[FUBAR]

- In inaugural IDP dynasty drafts over-value elite IDP players and don't bother with the rest for ages. You want a shot at guys like Allen, Beason, Rudd and Willis in rounds 6-7-8 but don't continue to stockpile IDPs once the very top ones have gone, the relative value of IDPs falls off dramatically after the top ones

The rest of your points are good too, but this one echoes with me and is pretty much what I was going to post. Simply put, in a dynasty IDP league, the only time I add value for youth is if the guy is an elite talent, a guy I'd consider a "core player". Your 4 for sure, but I'd also include Lofton, Mario Williams, and most of Jene's other Tier 1's. Mario had a somewhat disappointing year, exactly the time we should buy.

 

[5Rings]

I play in a 16-team, 58-man roster league so when I say deeper leagues I really mean deeper leagues.Here's our draft 1st round:Moreno, Knowshon DEN RBWells, Chris ARI RBMcCoy, LeSean PHI RBBrown, Donald IND RBCrabtree, Michael SFO WRHarvin, Percy MIN WRNicks, Hakeem NYG WRGreene, Shonn NYJ RBStafford, Matthew DET QBMaclin, Jeremy PHI WRSanchez, Mark NYJ QBLaurinaitis, James STL LBRobiskie, Brian CLE WRCurry, Aaron SEA LBMatthews, Clay GBP LBHeyward-Bey, Darrius OAK WR The top offensive talent is gone very quickly. But as you can see the IDP talent is still very good even at the bottom of the first. I just think it's not wise to say "I'm not drafting any IDPs because I can find them on the WW". That doesn't work in every league.

for comparison purposes:32 team / 40 man rosters with heavy scoring IDP, ppr 0.5, start 3 WR1.01 Curry, Aaron SEA LB ® 1.02 Crabtree, Michael SFO WR ® 1.03 Laurinaitis, James STL LB ® 1.04 Maualuga, Rey CIN LB ® 1.05 Maclin, Jeremy PHI WR ® 1.06 Moreno, Knowshon DEN RB ® 1.07 Wells, Chris ARI RB ® 1.08 Harvin, Percy MIN WR ® 1.09 Nicks, Hakeem NYG WR ® 1.10 Cushing, Brian HOU LB ® 1.11 Matthews, Clay GBP LB ® 1.12 Robiskie, Brian CLE WR ® 1.13 Iglesias, Juaquin CHI WR ® 1.14 Sintim, Clint NYG LB ® 1.15 Britt, Kenny TEN WR ® 1.16 Heyward-Bey, Darrius OAK WR ® 1.17 Massaquoi, Mohamed CLE WR ® 1.18 Orakpo, Brian WAS LB ® 1.19 Pettigrew, Brandon DET TE ® 1.20 English, Larry SDC LB ® 1.21 Greene, Shonn NYJ RB ® 1.22 Turner, Patrick MIA WR ® 1.23 Brown, Donald IND RB ® 1.24 Moore, William ATL S ® 1.25 McCoy, LeSean PHI RB ® 1.26 Mitchell, Michael OAK S ® 1.27 Davis, James CLE RB ® 1.28 Davis, Vontae MIA CB ® 1.29 Collie, Austin IND WR ® 1.30 Jenkins, Malcolm NOS CB ® 1.31 Delmas, Louis DET S ® 1.32 Chung, Patrick NEP S ®I list this just because I disagree a bit with Portis' last point. Your entire post was awesome, and I agree with 99% of it. Nice job. But you can find both O and IDP value at the end of round 1. On O, Ray Rice and Chris Johnson both were the 8-9 pick guys. Patrick Willis was a 9-12 guy. The draft above, 1.31 (normal draft 3rd round) was Delmas, who was a weekly starter this year.

I've spent about a decade in IDP dynasty leagues, here are a few of my thoughts:- DEs who both put up solid tackle and sack numbers are absolute gold - they're like elite RBs, to be treasured and hoarded- Top DBs always emerge out of nowhere. You could have done great this season by picking up guys like Jairus Byrd, Brandon McGowan etc. You just have to keep an eagle eye on their stats and be very active in waivers- The first two or three weeks of the regular season are critical for picking up surprise IDP starters (and there are always lots). You want to vacuum them all up before anyone notices.- It's better to draft offensive prospects rather than defensive prospects in rookie drafts. It's highly unlikely your defensive prospect will turn out to be better than anything already out there on waivers, but it's smart to stockpile RBs in particular- In fact stockpile short speedy RBs. Jerome Harrison and Justin Forsett were on waivers in many dynasty leagues before this season. Guys like Slaton and Portis and even Brian Westbrook (shows my age) were not that highly ranked in dynasty rookie drafts.- If I have the choice of starting safeties or CBs, I'll nearly always go for the S because they are so much more consistent- 3-4 ends are fools' good, you want the edge guy in a 4-3- Or the WLB or MLB in a 4-3 - rarely the SLB- 3-4 LBs can be inconsistent, but Steelers LBs always seem to put up great numbers- If you have to start a CB go for a Cover 2 guy- You want your MLBs fast. The faster the better. All the top guys are. Don't draft the lumbering run stoppers, draft the all over the field tackle dynamos.- It's rare for a DT to do much. You really want the ends.- In inaugural IDP dynasty drafts over-value elite IDP players and don't bother with the rest for ages. You want a shot at guys like Allen, Beason, Rudd and Willis in rounds 6-7-8 but don't continue to stockpile IDPs once the very top ones have gone, the relative value of IDPs falls off dramatically after the top ones- Stockpile RBs on talent not situation. I remember I was mocked for drafting Ricky Williams in round 30 of an inaugural draft 4-5 years ago. I think he was playing for Toronto then.- If you want the next Vincent Jackson stockpile raw but very big, fast and strong WRs and sit on them for a few years- But short and speedy is the next WR trend. Smurfs are back. DeSean Jackson et al.- Watch out for changes in scheme. Kampman fell from grace because of the move to a 3-4 but if he changes team back a 4-3, watch out- Trust your eyes. I remember seeing Jermichael Finley make a catch downfield before he emerged and thinking who the heck is that?- Follow George Allen's dictum "the future is now" in dynasty. I've seen guys craft elaborately constructed teams over the years and they lose and they lose and they lose and suddenly their amazing stars of the future are approaching retirement. The dynasty teams who consistently win are those who want to win now.- Don't value draft choices as much as NFL teams do. A rookie draft pick is worth something if it's a top 5 and can secure a top back but after that... not so much. It's slim pickings by the end of the first round. I'd much rather finish in the playoffs every year and then trade my 1.10, 1.11 or 1.12 rookie pick for a great player. 1st round picks have a magical allure and are consistently overvalued.

 

[buck56]

I would put David Harris in the 1a group before I would Durant.

Really? I guess it would depend on if your scoring system is slanted towards big plays, but Harris totaled less than 5 solos in 8 of his 16 games this season while averaging 5.1 solos/game. Durant was under 5 solos in only 3 of his 13 games while averaging 6.2 solos/game.

Harris has a nose for the ball. He seems to have that football instinct, I could be wrong, but IMO he will finish in the top 10 LB's next year.Durant seems to to be a question mark in Jax. D. at the end of the season he wasnt even playing 3 downs. I think he has great potential, but i'm not sure the coaching staff is sold on him. He also is an injury concern for me.Speaking of injuries, I am supprised that Tatupu hasn't been mentioned yet. I know everyone has jumped on the Hawthorne bandwagon, but I think Tatupu has to much talent not to be a 3 down LB in seattle again next year. He is a little undersized and has a history of injuries, but when fully heathy he is a LB2 w/ upside IMO. He has big play capabilities and is good for a bunch of tackles. Jene, would be interested in where you would rank Lofa and what your opinion is on his place in seattle next year?

Was still wondering what peoples thoughts are with Lofa? IMO the signing of Carroll only helps him.

 

[Zoomanji]

I play in a 16-team, 58-man roster league so when I say deeper leagues I really mean deeper leagues.Here's our draft 1st round:Moreno, Knowshon DEN RB...Heyward-Bey, Darrius OAK WR The top offensive talent is gone very quickly. But as you can see the IDP talent is still very good even at the bottom of the first. I just think it's not wise to say "I'm not drafting any IDPs because I can find them on the WW". That doesn't work in every league.

for comparison purposes:32 team / 40 man rosters with heavy scoring IDP, ppr 0.5, start 3 WR1.01 Curry, Aaron SEA LB ® ... 1.32 Chung, Patrick NEP S ®I list this just because I disagree a bit with Portis' last point. Your entire post was awesome, and I agree with 99% of it. Nice job. But you can find both O and IDP value at the end of round 1. On O, Ray Rice and Chris Johnson both were the 8-9 pick guys. Patrick Willis was a 9-12 guy. The draft above, 1.31 (normal draft 3rd round) was Delmas, who was a weekly starter this year.

Well we could all nit-pick Portis' point but I think its valid for 12 and even some 16 teams leagues which are the norm (except the suckers in 32 team leagues )Anyway, I do agree with Portis the exception of one of my 16 team leagues (40 active and 15 DTS) most DL and DBs can be grabbed off the waiver wire and they aren't worth the limited roster space unless its a top guy like Delmas. Jeez, that 16 team league I signed T. Branch and Goldson in the offseason along with Dawkins who had been dropped.

 

[Pick]

I play in a 16-team, 58-man roster league so when I say deeper leagues I really mean deeper leagues.

Here's our draft 1st round:

Moreno, Knowshon DEN RB

Wells, Chris ARI RB

McCoy, LeSean PHI RB

Brown, Donald IND RB

Crabtree, Michael SFO WR

Harvin, Percy MIN WR

Nicks, Hakeem NYG WR

Greene, Shonn NYJ RB

Stafford, Matthew DET QB

Maclin, Jeremy PHI WR

Sanchez, Mark NYJ QB

Laurinaitis, James STL LB

Robiskie, Brian CLE WR

Curry, Aaron SEA LB

Matthews, Clay GBP LB

Heyward-Bey, Darrius OAK WR

The top offensive talent is gone very quickly. But as you can see the IDP talent is still very good even at the bottom of the first. I just think it's not wise to say "I'm not drafting any IDPs because I can find them on the WW". That doesn't work in every league.

Not what I said - I don't view any of those guys a "prospects". To me a prospect is a guy that will not be starting for a couple of years down the road - that you have to keep on your roster while they are developing. I drafted Laurinaitis in our league at 1.16 with the specific intent that he would start at LB3 for me.Closest I came to having an IDP prospect on my team was picking up Cameron Wake in the off-season, but I dropped him pretty quickly when he was given a LB position. I could see drafting and holding a DE prospect - but again, I think it is too hard to really evaluate the progression of an IDP player.

I wasn't responding to your post. I'm not into semantics here. I'm just saying focusing only on offensive players in your draft isn't necessarily some set-it-in-stone dynasty rule. For example, a few years ago I had a pretty good draft (meaning lucky) where 2nd-5th tier WRs, RBs, and QBs were being drafted. I picked up guys like Tuck, Atogwe, and Marlin Jackson.

 

[Pick]

But you can find both O and IDP value at the end of round 1.

Ya, I am perennially drafting late in the 1st round (make the playoffs but never win ). And I find some great value at the end for IDPs. I'm not saying ignore offensive talent (I took Cutler late in the first one year) but the top IDP talent is to be had late first and second while other guys are drafting the 2nd and 3rd tier offensive talent.

 

[Jene Bramel]

-I think Cushing should be higher. He is a tackle machine and is a big play machine with 4 sacks, 4 int, 10 pd this season.

Are you concerned that 87 tackles is Cushing's ceiling? Five games with three solos or fewer, nine games with five solos or fewer. I'm not sure we can reliably project him near 90 solos every season. To be sure, those are very strong numbers for an OLB. The big plays came late, which bodes well for his future, as I'd argue they're necessary to keep him near the top 20.

 

[buck56]

Jene what is your reasoning for not including Timmons in the #2's. He plays 3 downs for a historically good defense, where LB's usually rack up decent numbers. He was hurt this year, so IMO his numbers next year should be much better, considering he stays healthy.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Jene what is your reasoning for not including Timmons in the #2's. He plays 3 downs for a historically good defense, where LB's usually rack up decent numbers. He was hurt this year, so IMO his numbers next year should be much better, considering he stays healthy.

I have to look into his splits more closely, but the prime concern for me remains the horrible tackle opportunity the Steelers' defense affords itself. The highest opportunity ranking they've had since I started tracking the stat (2003) is 25th and I don't see any reason to expect that trend to change next season. His durability is a concern, as is a potential reliance on big play stats. I'm splitting them up to show very slight inflection points, but the whole of the second and third tiers remain close and deep. Personal preference based on any number of factors will drive the decision-making process here. I can see Timmons in Tier 2 and a closer look at his healthy splits might change my mind as early as this week.

 

[Jene Bramel]

I'm going to start this tier at 26, though some of the 2T-WEENERs would fit in the 15-25 range. When I transfer this list to the ranking database, I'll merge everyone (probably along with some subtle changes in those already "ranked").

TIER 3

26 LAWRENCE TIMMONS

27 DEANDRE LEVY

28 REY MAUALUGA

29 STEPHEN COOPER

30 BRIAN URLACHER

31 CLINT SESSION

32 CHAD GREENWAY

33 LOFA TATUPU

34 RICKY BROWN

35 AARON CURRY

36 KEITH RIVERS

This is the area where it gets tough for me. Less proven talent with plenty of upside (LB2+) versus veterans with significant question marks. The back end of this tier will clearly merge into the not-quite-replacement-level-with-upside Tier 4. Anyone on this list could end up in the top 20-25 with a strong winter of news.

Tatupu and Cooper (and probably Urlacher, too) are tough to rank. The coaching change certainly won't affect Tatupu negatively, but durability and depth chart/surrounding cast concerns, as well as a spotty history of production in the 80 solo tackle range make it hard to project him as a clear LB2. There are similar issues with Cooper.

Since I've decided to favor upside, I've got lots of talent in this tier without a clear stud role. I wouldn't be drafting any of these types as a LB2 without a clear idea of their roles, but I'd much rather have their upside as my LB4/5 (where you may still be able to get some of them) than some of the guys yet to be tiered.

 

[Pick]

31 CLINT SESSION

Big fan here. He was top 10 til he went down.

 

[Moniker]

31 CLINT SESSION

Big fan here. He was top 10 til he went down.

/agree fully. Session is in a great situation and should put up very good numbers again next season. The only problem dynasty-wise with him is that his contract runs out at the end of 2010 and the Colts' history of just "plugging in" the next guy in line for that WLB spot.