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The IDP Dynasty Thread (1 Viewer)

DbqSitz40

Footballguy
What do you guys think of Michael Boley's value moving forward?

In 2009, he flew under the radar of most people because of injury issues. However, in the 11 games he played, he averaged over 6.5 solo tackles per game. Boley has shown fantasy relevance in the past (2007 season - 93 solo tackles).

Reports out of New York are stating that MLB Antonio Pierce will probably not return for the 2010 season. This leaves a vacancy in the middle. What are the chances the Giants will place Boley in the middle? If they do, how does this increase his value? If they don't move him to the middle and keep him at WLB, where do you think he resides value-wise for the 2010 season?

 

5Rings

Lurker
I'm going to start this tier at 26, though some of the 2T-WEENERs would fit in the 15-25 range. When I transfer this list to the ranking database, I'll merge everyone (probably along with some subtle changes in those already "ranked").

TIER 3

26 LAWRENCE TIMMONS

27 DEANDRE LEVY

28 REY MAUALUGA

29 STEPHEN COOPER

30 BRIAN URLACHER

31 CLINT SESSION

32 CHAD GREENWAY

33 LOFA TATUPU

34 RICKY BROWN

35 AARON CURRY

36 KEITH RIVERS

This is the area where it gets tough for me. Less proven talent with plenty of upside (LB2+) versus veterans with significant question marks. The back end of this tier will clearly merge into the not-quite-replacement-level-with-upside Tier 4. Anyone on this list could end up in the top 20-25 with a strong winter of news.

Tatupu and Cooper (and probably Urlacher, too) are tough to rank. The coaching change certainly won't affect Tatupu negatively, but durability and depth chart/surrounding cast concerns, as well as a spotty history of production in the 80 solo tackle range make it hard to project him as a clear LB2. There are similar issues with Cooper.

Since I've decided to favor upside, I've got lots of talent in this tier without a clear stud role. I wouldn't be drafting any of these types as a LB2 without a clear idea of their roles, but I'd much rather have their upside as my LB4/5 (where you may still be able to get some of them) than some of the guys yet to be tiered.
Brown jumps off the list at me as a guy who doesnt belong in the player grouping above. I think his situation--which, IMO, is questionable--is being overvalued. The guy just doesn't have the same elite talent that the other players on this list possess.Cooper is also a bit questionable to me, but IMO lots of folks still value him based on his 2008 2nd half. I'm not sure how the SD ILB spots will play out.

Thanks for the thread, Jene

 
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Jene Bramel

Footballguy
Brown jumps off the list at me as a guy who doesnt belong in the player grouping (Tier 3) above. I think his situation--which, IMO, is questionable--is being overvalued. The guy just doesn't have the same elite talent that the other players on this list possess.
No question.I don't think much of Ricky Brown at all. Unfortunately, circumstances force his name into the discussion.***The Raiders went out of their way to push him toward the MLB job during the preseason.***Though he didn't win the job, the Raiders later used him ahead of Kirk Morrison in the nickel.***The Raiders essentially have no one signed to play LB in 2010.***The defense will provide lots and lots of opportunity.***Below average talents like Greg Biekert and Danny Clark have run up big numbers in this role.***The surrounding cast is likely to remain weak.If Brown is signed and handed the every-down MLB role, I think he easily fits into the top 20 somewhere. I think he's a better risk/reward than a lot of the guys with LB3 upside at best in the tiers to come.
 

Jene Bramel

Footballguy
What do you guys think of Michael Boley's value moving forward?In 2009, he flew under the radar of most people because of injury issues. However, in the 11 games he played, he averaged over 6.5 solo tackles per game. Boley has shown fantasy relevance in the past (2007 season - 93 solo tackles). Reports out of New York are stating that MLB Antonio Pierce will probably not return for the 2010 season. This leaves a vacancy in the middle. What are the chances the Giants will place Boley in the middle? If they do, how does this increase his value? If they don't move him to the middle and keep him at WLB, where do you think he resides value-wise for the 2010 season?
I think Boley is probably fourth or fifth on the list of potentials at MLB. Chase Blackburn, Jonathan Goff, Clint Sintim and a draft/free agent find are all probably better bets than Boley to play the middle. His value at WLB depends on which direction the new DC decides to go. If it's Perry Fewell and we see an aggressive form of Tampa-2 in New York, he belongs at least in Tier 3 here and may have LB2 upside depending on how the MLB situation plays out.
 

DbqSitz40

Footballguy
Heading into the 2010 season, I am really high on WLB Geno Hayes. He finished the year with fantasy numbers and, in my scoring system, was a Top 25 Linebacker. He's young and is still learning the system, so it makes sense that he will only get better. The WLB position has proven to be fruitful in the past in TB (i.e. Derrick Brooks). However, that was when they were playing a Cover 2 defense. What do you guys think Hayes' value is moving forward into next year?

 

Kilroy1872

Footballguy
-I think Cushing should be higher. He is a tackle machine and is a big play machine with 4 sacks, 4 int, 10 pd this season.
Are you concerned that 87 tackles is Cushing's ceiling? Five games with three solos or fewer, nine games with five solos or fewer. I'm not sure we can reliably project him near 90 solos every season. To be sure, those are very strong numbers for an OLB. The big plays came late, which bodes well for his future, as I'd argue they're necessary to keep him near the top 20.
:lmao: Cushing's a hard to guy to slot for me. I kinda doubt he backs up '09 stat-wise (at least next year), but on the other hand he certainly showed the sorta big play upside (along with SOLID tackle numbers for an OLB) that gives dynasty owners the warm-and-fuzzies. Personally he's the kinda player I'd like as a "homerun" type I can pair with a more consistent tackling option, but I have a feeling he's gonna be drafted higher than I'd be willing to go for that by numbers-chasers.

This thread has me jonesing to get cracking on my own rankings. Offseason? What offseason? :banned:

 

Anthony Borbely

Footballguy
I'm a big Tatupu fan. His first three years, he was 16th in FBG scoring in all 3 years. Solos were 86, 93, 83, and peripheral numbers were solid. He was not healthy last year and only had 69 solos in 15 games. This year he did little. I think there is some reason for concern about the injuries and subsequent dropoff, but I think he is a great buy low. He has posted proven mid LB2 numbers and if he can stay healthy, I see no reason why he can't do it again. Seattle missed his leadership when he was hurt.

Urlacher's solos fell to 79 in 2008 after being in the 90's for 3 straight years and his big play numbers disappeared. I thought he looked a step slower when I saw them play. But other than London Fletcher, almost all LBs have off years and I think Urlacher is another great buy low. He is off the radar to a degree and his last year of playing showed a decline.

DeAndre Levy is not an elite talent, but he is a good talent in a potentially great situation. If Foote leaves, I would not be surprised if Levy moved into the top 10 LBs next year. The Lions defense will probably be really bad again and there will be opportunity galore for Levy. Long-term, I think he is a mid LB2 with LB1 upside depending on how much he improves. He was really impressive this year, but inconsistent. I also think it would help if he played one position instead of 3.

Another player I am looking at is Derrick Johnson. I only wish I knew what would happen to him. He is another player who has fell off the radar that has LB2 upside.

I would be selling on Cushing. I find it hard to believe he will maintain LB1 numbers being a SLB, plus I don't expect his big play numbers to be that big every year. If you can get value for him based on mid LB1 numbers, then I would sell in a heartbeat.

Ho-hum...another season with solos in the mid 90s for Fletcher. I did not see any drop in his play and that is why I bought low during this past season. Obviously, the wheels have to fall off sometime, but I think he has another solid year in him. Not a bad buy low if his owner wants to get younger.

 

djmich

Footballguy
Great list Jene. I was surprised to see Laurinaitis at #5, but then after trying to figure out who I would have above him there really isn't much to argue beyond maybe a handful of guys.

When discussing dynasty LB draft picks last year I don't recall the rookie LB's and Laurinaitis as really being considered very special. Has anything this season changed in your opinion....or to use the example of a player being discussed is Laurinaitis really just Ricky Brown with opportunity fulfilled, in which case maybe a good sell high.

I own Laurinaitis and have an owner very interested and trying to get a feel if I should try harder to hold on to him. In no small part thanks to the IDP experts here I am stacked at LB and want to monetize that by dealing some, and feel that I should be able to replenish since most owners are still a half step behind on D. But replenishing dynasty rank #5 vs #15 is a wide gap.

In terms of Laurinaitis value what do you think of the following, which in my mind basically values him as rookie pick #8.

Jerome Harrison + Pick #8 for Braylon Edwards + Laurinaitis.

 
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Jene Bramel

Footballguy
Great list Jene. I was surprised to see Laurinaitis at #5, but then after trying to figure out who I would have above him there really isn't much to argue beyond maybe a handful of guys.When discussing dynasty LB draft picks last year I don't recall the rookie LB's and Laurinaitis as really being considered very special. Has anything this season changed in your opinion....or to use the example of a player being discussed is Laurinaitis really just Ricky Brown with opportunity fulfilled, in which case maybe a good sell high.I own Laurinaitis and have an owner very interested and trying to get a feel if I should try harder to hold on to him. In no small part thanks to the IDP experts here I am stacked at LB and want to monetize that by dealing some, and feel that I should be able to replenish since most owners are still a half step behind on D. But replenishing dynasty rank #5 vs #15 is a wide gap.In terms of Laurinaitis value what do you think of the following, which in my mind basically values him as rookie pick #8.Jerome Harrison + Pick #8 for Braylon Edwards + Laurinaitis.
From a pure talent perspective, I didn't see consistent 95 solo upside from Laurinaitis. With the struggles in the front seven, the lack of a thumping SS and the loss of Witherspoon, there's nobody else to take those tackles, however. That makes Laurinaitis LB2 talent with LB1 opportunity for the next 1-2 seasons. I don't think much of either Harrison or Edwards. I'm not big on late first round draft picks either and I have no idea what may be available in this season's rookie crop, but if there's any chance of getting a solid offensive prospect at #8 and you feel like you're covered at LB, that's probably a deal I'd make for upside purposes.
 

Jene Bramel

Footballguy
I'm going to split this larger tier into two smaller tiers. The youth with strong upside if the roles break perfectly for them tier and the replacement level guys with LB3 upside tier. Players not listed in either of these two tiers have essentially earned a vote of no-confidence from me in dynasty situations right now. They're players I wouldn't roster (except in deeper leagues) if there was anything of higher upside available.

TIER 4Y

01 DAVID HAWTHORNE

02 DANNELL ELLERBEE

03 BRANDON SILER

04 GERALD MCRATH

05 JONATHAN GOFF

06 JOVAN BELCHER

07 DESMOND BISHOP

08 JAMAR WILLIAMS

09 TYRONE MCKENZIE

10 GARY GUYTON

11 CLINT SINTIM

12 SCOTT MCKILLOP

I'd only consider the back end of this group in deeper leagues, but all have some reasonable upside if things break perfectly. Hawthorne resides atop this list due to the durability questions among the current Seattle linebackers and his production as a starter. He's a guy that might be hard to hold until 2011, but one of those Barrett Ruud types -- the rare IDP with enough future upside to warrant stashing.

TIER 4RL

01 MICHAEL BOLEY

02 ROCKY MCINTOSH

03 GENO HAYES

04 DERRICK JOHNSON

05 DARYL SMITH

06 BRADIE JAMES

07 MIKE PETERSON

08 KEITH BROOKING

The top four on this list have interesting upside, the back four are guys with LB3 upside or at least strong weekly matchup upside. This group is the most fluid group in the rank list.

Notables on the no-confidence list: Keith Bulluck, Dhani Jones, Channing Crowder, Thomas Howard, James Farrior, Larry Foote, Ernie Sims, Will Witherspoon and AJ Hawk.

 

pretender

Footballguy
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For those in DT-required leagues, where do you expect Ndamukong Suh & Gerald McCoy to be drafted in your rookie drafts? In my 16-team league, the top DT usually goes off the board anywhere from the mid-30s and mid-40s...are these guys worth more than that?

For reference, over the past few years in my league:

In 2006, Ngata went 25

In 2007, Okoye went 69 (He fell, in part I think, because of how much the league ridiculed the Ngata owner for taking him so early the year before)

In 2008, Dorsey went 40; Ellis went 47.

In 2009, Raji went 36

Where do these two rookies fall talent-wise among past top DTs? (Obviously, the situations they're drafted into will have an impact on their final ranking...)

 
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Dave Larkin

Moderator
For those in DT-required leagues, where do you expect Ndamukong Suh & Gerald McCoy to be drafted in your rookie drafts? In my 16-team league, the top DT usually goes off the board anywhere from the mid-30s and mid-40s...are these guys worth more than that?For reference, over the past few years in my league: In 2006, Ngata went 25In 2007, Okoye went 69 (He fell, in part I think, because of how much the league ridiculed the Ngata owner for taking him so early the year before) In 2008, Dorsey went 40; Ellis went 47. In 2009, Raji went 36Where do these two rookies fall talent-wise among past top DTs? (Obviously, the situations they're drafted into will have an impact on their final ranking...)
Good question. These two prospects are particularly intriguing, especially Suh. When I watched Suh this season, he simply dominated the line of scrimmage. On every other play, he made an impact. A man among boys at the college level, I expect his surprising quickness off the ball and inhuman strength to cause NFL offensive linemen similar problems. I see his landing spot as Detroit, and you better believe Jim Schwartz will use his skills to the full there. Can he be a dominant DT who is worthy of the 25th pick overall like Haloti Ngata? Yes, I believe so. To me, he is a once in a decade kind of talent.As for McCoy, I haven't seen a huge amount of him, but what I have seen tells me that he'll be a dominant player at the next level too. Not to the same extent as Suh, but not far off. Depending on his landing spot, which should be in the Top 10 picks overall, I wouldn't hesitate spending a 40-50 pick on him.
 

Dave Larkin

Moderator
There was a post in another topic in the IDP forum regarding the value of Justin Durant going into 2010 with Jack Del Rio basically committing more fully to the 4-3 defense. I am of the opinion that Durant can be a Top 10 LB in the coming years if Jacksonville can add some talent around him, like another DT for example. What do you guys think?

 

Dirty Hairy

Footballguy
For those in DT-required leagues, where do you expect Ndamukong Suh & Gerald McCoy to be drafted in your rookie drafts? In my 16-team league, the top DT usually goes off the board anywhere from the mid-30s and mid-40s...are these guys worth more than that?For reference, over the past few years in my league: In 2006, Ngata went 25In 2007, Okoye went 69 (He fell, in part I think, because of how much the league ridiculed the Ngata owner for taking him so early the year before) In 2008, Dorsey went 40; Ellis went 47. In 2009, Raji went 36Where do these two rookies fall talent-wise among past top DTs? (Obviously, the situations they're drafted into will have an impact on their final ranking...)
I think it depends on the alternative players available at that juncture of the draft. I can easily see Suh going in the second round because the other prospects available at that point fall into a pool of similar type prospects - a large tier with potential (or in one owners mind).
 

Jene Bramel

Footballguy
davlar said:
There was a post in another topic in the IDP forum regarding the value of Justin Durant going into 2010 with Jack Del Rio basically committing more fully to the 4-3 defense. I am of the opinion that Durant can be a Top 10 LB in the coming years if Jacksonville can add some talent around him, like another DT for example. What do you guys think?
Durant was sitting in the 3-4 base on the rare occasions the Jags were fully healthy late in the season, so this should be good news for him. It's possible Del Rio shuffles the backers this offseason, but I think it's pretty safe to project Smith/Durant/Ingram with Ingram sitting in the nickel. Durant's numbers were strong when he was healthy; he's definitely got 95 solo/LB1 upside.
 

Dave Larkin

Moderator
The Senior Bowl is in the books, and seeing as this is an IDP Dynasty thread and we're focusing on the draft at the moment, I thought I would highlight a couple of the standouts from the week of practices and the game itself and get the opinion of you guys.

Stock Up

LB Sean Weatherspoon, Missouri

I've been keeping a close eye on the draftniks reports this week, and all of them have been positive regarding this kid. One website said:

Sean Weatherspoon led the cheer for the North team before the game. But he was more than just a cheerleader; he nearly intercepted a pass in coverage against Dexter McCluster and later picked off a pass in the fourth quarter. Weatherspoon is unquestionably the top linebacker in this class after Rolando McClain.

Weatherspoon's most impressive showing of the day was when he kept pace in coverage with the speedy Dexter McCluster. That is no small feat considering McCluster's sudden moves in the open field. NFL scouts and GMs will love that aspect of Spoon's game. He should step right in to the starting lineup and be a contributor as a rookie and IDP relevant.

DE Brandon Graham, Michigan

As the MVP of the game, how could I not give Graham a mention? He put on a dominant display all week long and scouts came away with their jaws dropped. He has the quickest first step of any DE in this draft class, and to me his burst off the LOS could translate very well to a 3-4 scheme. Mike Mayock said he reminded him of Lamarr Woodley, and that may not be far off. Graham is not big enough in stature to hold up as a 4-3 DE, but as a pass rusher, his future is bright.

LB Daryl Washington, TCU

I've been impressed with Washington since I saw him play against Boise St. in the bowl game last month. He really stands out on tape as a sideline to sideline, rangy MLB. According to a reputable draftnik, he'll play WLB in the NFL due to his fluid play in space. He'll be highly coveted by a Cover 2 team.

DE/OLB Koa Misi, Utah

Misi is an interesting guy. He changed positions from DE to OLB for the Senior Bowl and seems to have settled nicely into the role. He finished the game with 6 tackles, 1 for a loss. He's another guy to keep on your radars depending on his landing spot. He will be more of a project than Brandon Graham, but a team who has done their homework will be rewarded in drafting Misi.

So have you seen any of these guys play extensively? If so, who do you like the most and why? Are there any other sleeper prospects that you've got in mind?

 

blend

Footballguy
i'm getting ready to start my first IDP league and this thread was very helpful... Are there any articles on the site that have proven to be particularly helpful to others in IDP?

 

Jene Bramel

Footballguy
i'm getting ready to start my first IDP league and this thread was very helpful... Are there any articles on the site that have proven to be particularly helpful to others in IDP?
Some of FBGs greatest hits include:Dynasty IDP Concepts (Bramel 2006)

Dynasty Trade Rebuilding (Borbely 2007)

An IDP Dynasty League Case Study (Borbely 2008)

Breaking Down NFL Defenses (Norton 2008)

IDP Dynasty Rankings Discussion (Borbely 2009)

Incorporating IDP Concepts (Magaw/Bramel 2009)

Guide to NFL Defenses (Bramel 2009)

All of the above are extended strategy and conceptual articles from our summer content over the past few years. There are many more nuggets sprinkled among our inseason weekly content columns if you have the time to sift through them.

 

blend

Footballguy
i'm getting ready to start my first IDP league and this thread was very helpful... Are there any articles on the site that have proven to be particularly helpful to others in IDP?
Some of FBGs greatest hits include:Dynasty IDP Concepts (Bramel 2006)

Dynasty Trade Rebuilding (Borbely 2007)

An IDP Dynasty League Case Study (Borbely 2008)

Breaking Down NFL Defenses (Norton 2008)

IDP Dynasty Rankings Discussion (Borbely 2009)

Incorporating IDP Concepts (Magaw/Bramel 2009)

Guide to NFL Defenses (Bramel 2009)

All of the above are extended strategy and conceptual articles from our summer content over the past few years. There are many more nuggets sprinkled among our inseason weekly content columns if you have the time to sift through them.
perfect. :confused: thanks.
 

PranksterJD

Footballguy
i'm getting ready to start my first IDP league and this thread was very helpful... Are there any articles on the site that have proven to be particularly helpful to others in IDP?
Some of FBGs greatest hits include:Dynasty IDP Concepts (Bramel 2006)

Dynasty Trade Rebuilding (Borbely 2007)

An IDP Dynasty League Case Study (Borbely 2008)

Breaking Down NFL Defenses (Norton 2008)

IDP Dynasty Rankings Discussion (Borbely 2009)

Incorporating IDP Concepts (Magaw/Bramel 2009)

Guide to NFL Defenses (Bramel 2009)

All of the above are extended strategy and conceptual articles from our summer content over the past few years. There are many more nuggets sprinkled among our inseason weekly content columns if you have the time to sift through them.
@blend... also check the "Ultimate Guide" podcasts in Jene's sig and the pinned Warehouse thread. Absolutely seminal works for IDP. Great help for new and seasoned IDP owners.@ Jene... that said, have you guys thought of revisiting those or adding an addendum episode to cover any new developments and tendencies in the NFL.

 

Jene Bramel

Footballguy
i'm getting ready to start my first IDP league and this thread was very helpful... Are there any articles on the site that have proven to be particularly helpful to others in IDP?
Some of FBGs greatest hits include:Dynasty IDP Concepts (Bramel 2006)

Dynasty Trade Rebuilding (Borbely 2007)

An IDP Dynasty League Case Study (Borbely 2008)

Breaking Down NFL Defenses (Norton 2008)

IDP Dynasty Rankings Discussion (Borbely 2009)

Incorporating IDP Concepts (Magaw/Bramel 2009)

Guide to NFL Defenses (Bramel 2009)

All of the above are extended strategy and conceptual articles from our summer content over the past few years. There are many more nuggets sprinkled among our inseason weekly content columns if you have the time to sift through them.
@blend... also check the "Ultimate Guide" podcasts in Jene's sig and the pinned Warehouse thread. Absolutely seminal works for IDP. Great help for new and seasoned IDP owners.@ Jene... that said, have you guys thought of revisiting those or adding an addendum episode to cover any new developments and tendencies in the NFL.
The examples in those podcasts are definitely becoming dated. The updates may not be as in-depth, but we'll likely revisit them this year, yes.
 

Cassius

Footballguy
So I'm confused - is this thread obsolete with DynastyGuys.com? Or are you going to post updates in both places?

 

Anthony Borbely

Footballguy
I plan on contributing in both places as soon as all of my dynasty rankings are finished. MY IDPs are done and I am working on offense now.

I'm specifically hoping to delve into the tiers of my rankings and general tiering theory.

 

Jene Bramel

Footballguy
Posted rankings by position today. I can't remember the last time I thought the DB position was this wide open and the pool of potential DL targets is worse than last season, too. If Peppers, Carter and Schobel end up as 3-4 OLBs and guys like Umenyiora don't bounce back with good years, it'll be interesting to see which of the second and third tier upside players step forward this year.

I need to do a full set of projections to iron out the back end tiers in both positions -- I'm seemingly shuffling the 30-75 slots with each pass -- and I'll work on doing that before the next big update after free agency begins.

 

Anthony Borbely

Footballguy
I can't remember the last time I thought the DB position was this wide open
:shrug: I thought last year was bad until I attempted to sort this mess out. The wide openness seems to be higher in the rankings too. As for the end of the list, I bet I could literally make a case for another 30 to 50 DBs to be ranked somewhere. It seems like most of them have 1 or 2 good years and an off year or 2. As for drafts and current leagues, the above is another reason why I think letting DB go until later in the draft looks like a good strategy (unless you can get value on a stud). I picked up players off of waivers last year (the Buffalo safeties, Mike Brown, Ndukwe) that were as good or better than the majority of fantasy safeties. There are a handful of DBs that I would try to get in a startup dynasty league, but it would not be a major deal to me if I missed on them. Also, the wild fluctuations make a lot of DBs good sell highs (not the studs though).
 

Dave Larkin

Moderator
I can't remember the last time I thought the DB position was this wide open
:goodposting: I thought last year was bad until I attempted to sort this mess out. The wide openness seems to be higher in the rankings too. As for the end of the list, I bet I could literally make a case for another 30 to 50 DBs to be ranked somewhere. It seems like most of them have 1 or 2 good years and an off year or 2. As for drafts and current leagues, the above is another reason why I think letting DB go until later in the draft looks like a good strategy (unless you can get value on a stud). I picked up players off of waivers last year (the Buffalo safeties, Mike Brown, Ndukwe) that were as good or better than the majority of fantasy safeties. There are a handful of DBs that I would try to get in a startup dynasty league, but it would not be a major deal to me if I missed on them. Also, the wild fluctuations make a lot of DBs good sell highs (not the studs though).
DB is essentially - if you'll pardon the phrase - a crapshoot this season. Leaving DB until late in the draft (unless a stud comes along) is definitely the way to go.
 

Zoomanji

Footballguy
I can't remember the last time I thought the DB position was this wide open
:rolleyes: I thought last year was bad until I attempted to sort this mess out. The wide openness seems to be higher in the rankings too. As for the end of the list, I bet I could literally make a case for another 30 to 50 DBs to be ranked somewhere. It seems like most of them have 1 or 2 good years and an off year or 2.

As for drafts and current leagues, the above is another reason why I think letting DB go until later in the draft looks like a good strategy (unless you can get value on a stud). I picked up players off of waivers last year (the Buffalo safeties, Mike Brown, Ndukwe) that were as good or better than the majority of fantasy safeties. There are a handful of DBs that I would try to get in a startup dynasty league, but it would not be a major deal to me if I missed on them. Also, the wild fluctuations make a lot of DBs good sell highs (not the studs though).
I'm not even sure who those guys are. Most of the ones from last off-season dropped a little or ended the season hurt. The rest were surprises Dawkins, Branch, Woodson, Coleman, Goldson (who still gets no support). Jeez, J. Babineaux is 9th in my one league and he's still available :unsure: Exceptions being Y. Bell, Pollard (who was cut) and R. Harper.

 

5Rings

Lurker
I can't remember the last time I thought the DB position was this wide open
:goodposting: I thought last year was bad until I attempted to sort this mess out. The wide openness seems to be higher in the rankings too. As for the end of the list, I bet I could literally make a case for another 30 to 50 DBs to be ranked somewhere. It seems like most of them have 1 or 2 good years and an off year or 2.

As for drafts and current leagues, the above is another reason why I think letting DB go until later in the draft looks like a good strategy (unless you can get value on a stud). I picked up players off of waivers last year (the Buffalo safeties, Mike Brown, Ndukwe) that were as good or better than the majority of fantasy safeties. There are a handful of DBs that I would try to get in a startup dynasty league, but it would not be a major deal to me if I missed on them. Also, the wild fluctuations make a lot of DBs good sell highs (not the studs though).
I'm not even sure who those guys are. Most of the ones from last off-season dropped a little or ended the season hurt. The rest were surprises Dawkins, Branch, Woodson, Coleman, Goldson (who still gets no support). Jeez, J. Babineaux is 9th in my one league and he's still available :lmao: Exceptions being Y. Bell, Pollard (who was cut) and R. Harper.
:lmao: Goldson is being ranked in most dynasty top tens right now. I think he's getting way too much love and if I had him, I'd be selling.

 

Jene Bramel

Footballguy
Goldson is being ranked in most dynasty top tens right now. I think he's getting way too much love and if I had him, I'd be selling.
I've got Goldson as a DB2 right now (DB16). Tony has him at DB19. I'd like to rank him lower, but I'm not sure I like anyone below him more. Honestly, there are lots of guys ranked in the low teens through twenties on my list that my mind sees as DB3 type talent. I've got Woodson, Dawkins and Phillips in the top 12 and wouldn't really feel comfortable with any of them in a dynasty time frame. After highly ranking the Darren Sharpers and Madieu Williams of the group highly some years ago, I think I've been slower to come around to the new group of FS -- Antoine Bethea, Antrel Rolle, Michael Griffin in recent years. I'm a little more conscious of the 70-80 solo upside of the "interchangeable" FS this year. Goldson's 77 solos definitely look like an outlier, but with the current LILB, SS and CB group in San Francisco, I still think Goldson has 65-70 solo upside. If the Niners improve at any of those positions, I think Goldson is an even tougher sell at DB2.If you're drafting in a startup before camp, there's an argument that prioritizing Weddle, Harper, Atogwe is a smart move if they fall an extra round or so, then entirely ignoring the DB position with a mind to identify the Chris Harris, Jermaine Phillips, Yeremiah Bell, Tyvon Branch, Bryan Scott that crop up every season.
 

Jeff Pasquino

Footballguy
What's happening with the PHI FS/SS position?Mikell was on the field for >1000 snaps and didn't produce great tackle #s as a SS.
I still like Mikell, though he didn't produce as much as I had hoped. 70 solos is a reasonable number and his coverage peripherals were okay. Philadelphia's tackle opportunity was average, as was the run/pass split faced. Mikell did lead the team in tackles, but I'd guess that his rate stats (percentage of team solos, solo per tackle opp, etc) were just average, too. His 2008 was similar.He looks to be a consistent DB2/DB3 with some weekly upside, but not much more right now.I think the FS spot (and therefore the interchangeable nature of the scheme) remains unclear. Demps and Harris weren't particuarly impressive and I'd expect the Eagles to want a better cover safety than Sean Jones.
Just catching up on this thread.I have to agree with Jene here - but if you want a name to keep an eye on, the Eagles have not given up on Victor "Macho" Harris. He was a rookie last year and he was just overmatched.The Eagles suffered from poor corner play (Asante Samuel tackles like some 7-yr olds I've coached) and the lack of consistent LB play. With Stewart likely back in the middle and the Eagles to add another corner, Harris will be given another shot to win the starting role. They do like Mikell (top candidate for SS) and Demps (better as a 3rd corner / hybrid DB) and both Demps and Harris can return kicks. (DeSean returns punts). Sean Jones was not effective at all, but neither were most of the rest of the secondary. That's the real reason the Eagles lost twice to Dallas - poor coverage, especially on third down.
 

Mr. Peterson

Footballguy
Who is gonna step into the MLB position for the Giants now that Pierce got cut? Will that guy be a 3 down LB? Someone to definitely grab?

 

Jeff Pasquino

Footballguy
Who is gonna step into the MLB position for the Giants now that Pierce got cut? Will that guy be a 3 down LB? Someone to definitely grab?
If they don't draft someone, look for Goff and Blackburn to battle over it in the preseason - and it might be split (with one coming off the field on 3rd down).Too early to tell, really - FA and the draft still to go.
 

Zoomanji

Footballguy
I wasn't really sure where to put this but some things I noticed in the Dynasty DB rankings (mainly cause I have some deep leagues).

Mostly I was curious why these guys are unranked

J. Butler- STL- Hurt early than came on late. On a team with a lot of needs so it looks unlikely to me that he'll be replaced. Maybe he just benefitted by OJ being out?

Leonhard- NYJ- Returns as well as run Coach Ryan's D. Rhodes is on the way out. Unranked?

R. Nelson- JAX- Perennial disappointment, I kind of understand this one

Any other ideas on these guys. I like them as a DB 3 with upside. Even better in leagues that split CB and safety

 

Jene Bramel

Footballguy
J. Butler- STL- Hurt early than came on late. On a team with a lot of needs so it looks unlikely to me that he'll be replaced. Maybe he just benefitted by OJ being out?

I think I'm selling Butler's talent short a little. He's likely to move up the list after free agency and the draft if the Rams don't improve their OLB positions or add another young safety with potential. Butler belongs in the deep tier of guys with DB3 possibilities and in the top 60.

Leonhard- NYJ- Returns as well as run Coach Ryan's D. Rhodes is on the way out. Unranked?

Upside seems limited to 55 solos and a small number of big plays in coverage. He falls in the replacement level category for me. I don't think he provides any relative advantage as a DB3 or S2. Not enough weekly upside and his consistency isn't impressive enough to target as anything more than a bye week guy.

R. Nelson- JAX- Perennial disappointment, I kind of understand this one.

Nelson really struggled during the second half of the season, both on the field and in the box scores. I think he was on the verge of being benched at safety and it's possible he could be moved to a nickel corner/subpackage safety role if the Jags can improve their safety depth. I think his 38 solos during the first half of 2009 will prove to be an anomaly. I wouldn't trust him as depth, mostly because I don't think he's great in run support and his ball skills seemed to have left him over the past two seasons, but the OTA/camp season could change my mind if his opportunity looks right.

 

Anthony Borbely

Footballguy
I'm not sure Butler is any better (or worse) than the players I have ranked from about 35-40 to 60, but one thing that has to be stressed about DBs is the tiers are gigantic after you get out of the top 25-30 players. I literally could take another 30 players that I haven't ranked (including Butler) and rank them and still be right. He is better short-term than long-term. Jene already mentioned waiting to see what the Rams do. They were weak in the front 7 and had a lot of injuries and lacked depth to replace the injured players, plus they traded Witherspoon.

I agree with Jene about Leonhard and Nelson. I'm not a big fan of Butler, but he is in the large group of players that could be ranked. Even though I don't have him ranked, I still consider him to be in a large tier mentioned above. Like I said, I could remove the bottom 25 players I have ranked and replace them with 25 different players and still consider the rankings legit. Once you get to the bottom of the DB rankings, it's just a matter of opinion because none of them show any year-to-year consistency with regards to stats.

I agree with Jene's take on Leonhard and Nelson. I did not seriously consider ranking either.

 

Zoomanji

Footballguy
Thanks guys!

A couple I forgot about

J. Babineaux (SEA)- big numbers last year and he looks like he'll be back. Most leagues he was grabbed during the season but he's still somewhat under the radar and unranked

M. Shaughenessey (OAK)- Nice upside but that team is a mess

 

Jene Bramel

Footballguy
Thanks guys!A couple I forgot aboutJ. Babineaux (SEA)- big numbers last year and he looks like he'll be back. Most leagues he was grabbed during the season but he's still somewhat under the radar and unrankedM. Shaughenessey (OAK)- Nice upside but that team is a mess
Babineaux scares me. I don't think much of him in run support. I think he's comparable to Danieal Manning or Madieu Williams as a FS/nickel corner. Still, the current secondary depth chart looks favorable for him. He's another guy that would look a lot better by the second or third week of camp if the Seahawks don't make any moves at safety, the consistency in the linebacking corps still looks shaky and the cornerback group doesn't improve in run support in the Cover-2. Regardless, 75 solos is going to be hard to reproduce. Put him with Butler in the monster group of DB3 possibles with multiple question marks.Your take on Shaughnessy is about the same as mine. He flashed some potential -- he had the solo-less-sack numbers that raise my eyebrows, but his pressure and hit counts might suggest that the four sacks were an anomaly. The tenders yesterday suggest that Trevor Scott may be the favorite to hold the WLB job on early downs which could bump Shaughnessy's base defensive playing time. But he's a guy that's tough to rank until we're sure he'll get more than 50% of the playing time.
 

Crippler

IBL Representative
What does anyone think of Cody Brown. 2nd round pick Arizona last year. Will he start this year and is there any word on this injury status

 

Macgyver

Footballguy
Thanks guys!M. Shaughenessey (OAK)- Nice upside but that team is a mess
Your take on Shaughnessy is about the same as mine. He flashed some potential -- he had the solo-less-sack numbers that raise my eyebrows, but his pressure and hit counts might suggest that the four sacks were an anomaly. The tenders yesterday suggest that Trevor Scott may be the favorite to hold the WLB job on early downs which could bump Shaughnessy's base defensive playing time. But he's a guy that's tough to rank until we're sure he'll get more than 50% of the playing time.
Greg Ellis was released yesterday which puts Shaughnessy in line to be the strong-side end starter. The last 4 weeks, there was an average of about 66% to 33% in favor of Ellis. Barring any draft moves by the Raiders, I think it's safe to say that Shaughnessy will get more than 50% of the snaps.
 

Zoomanji

Footballguy
Thanks guys!M. Shaughenessey (OAK)- Nice upside but that team is a mess
Your take on Shaughnessy is about the same as mine. He flashed some potential -- he had the solo-less-sack numbers that raise my eyebrows, but his pressure and hit counts might suggest that the four sacks were an anomaly. The tenders yesterday suggest that Trevor Scott may be the favorite to hold the WLB job on early downs which could bump Shaughnessy's base defensive playing time. But he's a guy that's tough to rank until we're sure he'll get more than 50% of the playing time.
Greg Ellis was released yesterday which puts Shaughnessy in line to be the strong-side end starter. The last 4 weeks, there was an average of about 66% to 33% in favor of Ellis. Barring any draft moves by the Raiders, I think it's safe to say that Shaughnessy will get more than 50% of the snaps.
...assuming T. Scott stays at OLB
 

GridironMenace

Footballguy
Jene, no offense but Mayo has no business being ranked #8. He has a solid rookie season and had a down 2nd year. Not to mention that if his 2nd year trend continues he won't be a 3 down LB'er for long since he was terrible in coverage last season. For comparison, you have Brian Cushing ranked a paltry 20th. That just doesn't make any sense. Cushing had 12 less solo tackles when compared to Mayo's rookie campaign, however, Cushing had the big plays (5 sacks, 4 INT's, 2 FF, 10 PD's and 1 safety). True, Cushing played SLB and Mayo plays on the inside, but there is no doubting the numbers. By all comparisons, Cushing should be ranked higher than Mayo.

 

Jene Bramel

Footballguy
Jene, no offense but Mayo has no business being ranked #8. He has a solid rookie season and had a down 2nd year. Not to mention that if his 2nd year trend continues he won't be a 3 down LB'er for long since he was terrible in coverage last season. For comparison, you have Brian Cushing ranked a paltry 20th. That just doesn't make any sense. Cushing had 12 less solo tackles when compared to Mayo's rookie campaign, however, Cushing had the big plays (5 sacks, 4 INT's, 2 FF, 10 PD's and 1 safety). True, Cushing played SLB and Mayo plays on the inside, but there is no doubting the numbers. By all comparisons, Cushing should be ranked higher than Mayo.
No offense taken.I'm sure I'm going to be lower than nearly everyone else on Cushing. It's possible that he becomes the most consistently productive SLB in recent memory. He greatly outperformed expectations last season in both statistical production and durability, even playing through a couple of injuries. I'd be very reluctant to project 85 or more solos for Cushing in any given season, however, even as an every-down player. He'll continue to have lots of competition from DeMeco Ryans and Bernard Pollard. I think he's much more likely to finish in the 75-80 solo range than the 85-90+ range. Since I'm usually conservative in projecting big plays, that leaves Cushing in the LB2 tier. That's elite territory for an OLB, particularly a SLB. I might be persuaded to bump him into the mid teens this summer, but I think he's extremely risky as a LB1 anchor.I'm not sure who the Patriots have that would play over Jerod Mayo in the nickel defense. I can't see Gary Guyton, Tyrone McKenzie or a safety playing over him. Mayo clearly doesn't have the big play capability that Cushing has, but I'd argue that his baseline solo tackle numbers meet the expectations of a LB1. Project his final 12 games to a full season and he would have totaled 88 solos. Give him the benefit of the doubt with his MCL injury -- which he returned from in three weeks instead of the 4-6 originally projected -- and look at his second half split only and he projects to 96 solos and three sacks. Those numbers come despite the Patriots being a bottom five tackle opportunity team and having a slightly below average pass attempts faced for the season (both categories in which the Texans ranked slightly above average). I agree that the lack of coverage and fumble peripherals is concerning, though Mayo had two fumble plays and four passes defensed (about average numbers for an ILB) in 2008. I think that Mayo is likely to out-tackle Cushing by at least 10 solos next season. Since I don't feel comfortable saying that Cushing will be a perennial 6-8 sack, 3-5 INT player, he'll have to hit the upside of his tackle projection to stay within Mayo's range in fantasy production. In short, I think there's plenty of room to doubt both sets of 2009 numbers. Though I respect the argument in Cushing's favor, Mayo's position, role and opportunity all favor Mayo as a LB1 for me.
 

Crippler

IBL Representative
I have seen alot of news that Houston could bring in another very good LB. If this happens than the numbers will decrease for Cushing as he splits with 2 good LB's in the end. I think NE upgrades LB and I think this helps Mayo more as it will give him more freedom. He is the leader of that D in the end and will be for a long time.

Give me Mayo over Cushing also

 

Anthony Borbely

Footballguy
cr8f said:
Any D line rookies from last year stepping up this season?
It's hard to say, but in general, 4-3 DEs that are highly drafted and don't play much or do much as a rookie are pretty good buy lows overall. It is not the easiest position to learn.
 

cr8f

Footballguy
cr8f said:
Any D line rookies from last year stepping up this season?
It's hard to say, but in general, 4-3 DEs that are highly drafted and don't play much or do much as a rookie are pretty good buy lows overall. It is not the easiest position to learn.
Drafted Levy and Michael Johnson last year. I'm hoping Johnson does something this year.
 

tec79

Footballguy
a question for Jene (or others)-

SS Wm Moore Atl- his prospects for near term (2010) and longer term? does he have the opportunity to be starter soon?

thanks in advance

tex

 
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