The impact of a shortened season (1 Viewer)

[LHUCKS]

As the odds increase we could see a shortened season I have started to contemplate what kind of an impact that would have on my draft strategy. Below is a brief outline of my initial thoughts.

A) Players with injury risk become less risky...see Frank Gore, Michael Vick etc. Less games = less opportunity to get injured

B) YPC should increase as players up the intensity knowing that they don't have to make it through a full 16 game season. A lot of people argue that although Jim Brown is arguably the best RB of alltime, there's no way he would have maintained his YPC over a 16 game season.(as an example)

C) Because of A, the emphasis on depth at critical positions becomes less important. Draft all starters before backups.(dumbed down for brevity)

D) Players that historically start slow become even less valuable because the importance of each week is heightened given there would be fewer weeks.

That's off the top of my head...feel free to add your own.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Veteran teams will beat up on new coaching staffs / non-veteran teams.

I also believe that bye weeks may not exist this year.

 

[TenTimes]

Veteran teams will beat up on new coaching staffs / non-veteran teams.

So better passing numbers, you think? As well as lower rushing numbers? I think about Denver and Buffalo, who were consistently behind and airing it out to keep up, and how those situations created fantastic fantasy numbers for their QBs/WR(s). We could see more of that as parity is scaled up.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

I also believe that bye weeks may not exist this year.

And with that, I think you'll see the fantasy teams that value a great starting lineup over quality depth do even better than usual (duh. And depending on injuries).That's my strategy, to go big and work on the best starting lineup and let the rookies/developmental guys stick around as depth, and I think that that will pay off more in a season with no bye-weeks. I wouldn't be surprised to see an increase in 2-for-1 deals that exclusively improve starters in many dynasty leagues, as this line of thinking catches on.

 

[FUBAR]

Veteran teams will beat up on new coaching staffs / non-veteran teams.

Avoid rookies in redraft (or at least lower their value).Greater value on players with history producing, over sleepers.Greater value on tandems with experience together - devalue players like Vincent Jackson who are likely to move to new teams.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

Veteran teams will beat up on new coaching staffs / non-veteran teams.I also believe that bye weeks may not exist this year.

If bye weeks don't exist, could that be a reason to go against the grain of your post on RBBC? The season being a sprint rather than a marathon increases the stakes and intensity of each game. Could a shortened season actually increase fantasy PPG scoring in that regard?

 

[bostonfred]

Bump down lazy guys, guys who changed teams, or guys who haven't gotten their playbook. Bump up guys who are doing offseason workouts together, or who are known for having a good work ethic.

Everybody's injury risk goes up in a season when they haven't had proper offseason conditioning. Even if it is a shortened season, I think we'll see an increase in injuries early in the season.

Expect veteran teams to do what they want to more effectively. The Saints should score more points, the Ravens should allow fewer.

Expect veteran teams to do well against the line early in the season, but for that to change later in the season. The first couple weeks of this season will probably be one of the better grambling opportunities for people who like to bet favorites. A couple weeks in, expect the lines to get steeper, and then expect the good bad teams to gel enough that the value is on the dogs.

 

[Tau837]

B) YPC should increase as players up the intensity knowing that they don't have to make it through a full 16 game season.

This doesn't make sense. Will the defense not also up its intensity? Furthermore, the offense is more dependent on timing and synchronicity than the defense; if missing offseason and preseason practice affects either side more than the other, it will be the offense.ETA: I'm not sure teams will actually up their intensity anyway. If they do, then it should apply to both sides, not just the offense.

A lot of people argue that although Jim Brown is arguably the best RB of alltime, there's no way he would have maintained his YPC over a 16 game season.(as an example)

If a lot of people argue that, then a lot of people are making a foolish argument. He averaged 5.2 ypc over a career sample of 118 games. His last 3 seasons, at ages 27-29, he averaged over 5.6 ypc on 860 carries (more than 20 carries per game) while not missing a game. There are reasons one might argue that his performance was not as great as the numbers suggest, but playing 12 and 14 game seasons is not one of them.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

B) YPC should increase as players up the intensity knowing that they don't have to make it through a full 16 game season.

This doesn't make sense. Will the defense not also up its intensity? Furthermore, the offense is more dependent on timing and synchronicity than the defense; if missing offseason and preseason practice affects either side more than the other, it will be the offense.

A lot of people argue that although Jim Brown is arguably the best RB of alltime, there's no way he would have maintained his YPC over a 16 game season.(as an example)

If a lot of people argue that, then a lot of people are making a foolish argument. He averaged 5.2 ypc over a career sample of 118 games. His last 3 seasons, at ages 27-29, he averaged over 5.6 ypc on 860 carries (more than 20 carries per game) while not missing a game. There are reasons one might argue that his performance was not as great as the numbers suggest, but playing 12 and 14 game seasons is not one of them.

awesome use of synchronicitywe dont know if the season will be shorted yet. If it is, say only 12 games with no byes and limited training camp/pre-season. Then I would say focus on the qb/wr tandems that have worked together before. FAs changing teams will have issues - especially WR/TE.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Veteran teams will beat up on new coaching staffs / non-veteran teams.I also believe that bye weeks may not exist this year.

If bye weeks don't exist, could that be a reason to go against the grain of your post on RBBC? The season being a sprint rather than a marathon increases the stakes and intensity of each game. Could a shortened season actually increase fantasy PPG scoring in that regard?

No I don't because teams use RBBC early and often throughout the season. They game plan to use 2 RBs in a committee.I also don't necessarily agree that FF point changes correlates well to the advent of RBBC. As some in the other thread are contending, the top backs are still putting up good numbers despite fewer touches.RBBC just makes RB3s and RB4s (RB25-48) more viable lineup options than they once were in the past. It used to be after RB24-32, they were all bench guys who didn't get many carries. Now they get more at the expense of the NFL RB1s, while many NFL RB1s are still pretty productive.

 

[Shutout]

Bump down lazy guys, guys who changed teams, or guys who haven't gotten their playbook. Bump up guys who are doing offseason workouts together, or who are known for having a good work ethic.Everybody's injury risk goes up in a season when they haven't had proper offseason conditioning. Even if it is a shortened season, I think we'll see an increase in injuries early in the season. Expect veteran teams to do what they want to more effectively. The Saints should score more points, the Ravens should allow fewer. Expect veteran teams to do well against the line early in the season, but for that to change later in the season. The first couple weeks of this season will probably be one of the better grambling opportunities for people who like to bet favorites. A couple weeks in, expect the lines to get steeper, and then expect the good bad teams to gel enough that the value is on the dogs.

Agreed all around.A bit counter to the OP, I see a situation where the lack of training and conditioning actually LESSENS the effectiveness of some players due to higher injuries, etc. That makes me think that if you take a guy that is ALWYAYS known to be prepared and taking care fo himself (Wayne, Brees, Ray Lewis, etc), then you have an edge over guys with questionable histories/injuries (Marshall, McFadden,etc).I would think the teams that are established and don't have new coaching, new systems, etc (Steelers/Ravens/Colts, etc) will FEAST on an early matchup against a team with these things (an early season matchup of the Packers Vs. the 49'ers, just example, would likely lead to a big lopsided game). Overall, I think this may be a "turn back the clock year"; back to the time when you could roll out a Jerry Rice, marshall faulk, Emmitt Smith type of player and have an enormous weekly advantage as well as major point differences between the stud players in the league. The only caveat in that, in bigger leagues at least, is be prepared to win you league based on battles of attrition this year.I think your take on the gambling aspect is a very keen one. I just wonder if the guys laying the odds have already thought that out too and we will end up seeing a lot large lines right out of the box.

 

[eakfootball]

The simple fantasy sites like NFL.com and ESPN.com usually start drafting around now. NFL.com doesn't start until July 9th and ESPN until June 30th.

 

[Riffraff]

Free agents like Addai and Benson would be brought back quickly. Teams want guys that know the playbook and can contribute from the first snap.

If it's the "last 8 weeks" of the season, the Chargers have already wrapped up their division. If it's the "first 8 games" of the season, the Chargers are already in last place.

 

[bonesman]

One word (acronym) for me: S.O.S

 

[del mar]

I've seen them all since the first TV coverage began in the 1950's. Jim Brown was simply the best player I have ever seen regardless of position. The man was such a gifted athlete that he led the Syracuse basketball team in scoring in his junior year and is generally considered to be the greatest player in the history of collegiate lacrosse (he is in that Hall of Fame as well as the college and pro football Halls of Fame.) He played at about 230 lbs and had sprinter's speed (whenever Spring football practice and lacrosse games allowed he went off to the track and ran sprints for the Syracuse track team.)

While it is hard to compare players of different eras, the best way may be to look at their dominance in their own era. Like Babe Ruth's home run accomplishments, Brown's rushing achievements far surpassed those of his contemporaries. In eight of his nine years as a pro he led the league in rushing yardage. By way of comparison, Emmitt Smith, Barry Sanders and O.J. Simpson each led the league in rushing four times.

In seven of his nine years he averaged over 100 yards per game including one year where his average was just over 133 which projects to 2130 over a 16 game season (the NFL only played 14 game seasons at that point.) In his two worst years he rushed for over 900 yards and those were a 12 and a 14 game season.

He was truly a man playing a boys game.

 

[BassNBrew]

FF owners like Lhucks will only miss the fantasy playoffs by 4 games rather than their typical 8 games.

Biggest impact would be more meaningful games later in the season and a bigger percentage of the games being played in poorer weather. Teams in the south would lose some of their heat related advantage early in the year.

 

[Spike]

For redrafts, successful forays into the waiver wire will be more important than ever before.

I believe this because I believe there will be more injuries than ever before. (Not necessarily severe ones but ones that can/will force FF teams to be roster-flexible.)