The Interval Between Too Soon & Too Long (1 Viewer)

[Bob_Magaw]

let me preface this with a little context...

jene asked a question about kawika mitchell in this week's IDP round table (in subscriber content), and the specific question (as usual) got me thinking about more general & related concerns... so for the purposes of this question/thread, we don't need to get into specifics in detail...

suffice it to say that mitchell is interesting case study, and by comparing notes, could be like a lens with which to better view our thinking on timelines in IDP, individually & collectively...

mitchell didn't do too much first few seasons, but seemed to turn corner in 05... he has gotten off to slow start on 06... the question arises if last year was flukey & he is marginal talent... or even if he is hypothetically a player but something about present schemes makes it look like he will be precluded from re-attaining previous heights...

so the question... what is too soon to give up on him & how long is too long to hang on...

in the roundtable, we pretty much had different responses... for the record, i'm not presumptuous enough to think there is a right answer, but i think different responses can be traced to tempermental differences in IDP staff... some are more patient, some less (is 4 weeks too little or long to wait before making a move to keep or cut kawika mitchell, given he had breakout 05 but may be regressing in 06... or not?)... patience usually has a de facto positive connotation... but imo it is DEFINITELY possible to be TOO patient (so maybe that is wrong word, but best i can think of currently)... example would be hanging on to a vet with little upside and passing on next kerry rhodes...

dynasty leagues force you to reconcile contradictions, which i find more challenging & stimulating (though redrafts continue to hold an inherent interest for me, as they can help keep your dynasty chops up, and force you to be nimble & make adjustments on shorter time frames)...

acquiring talent half the equation... to clear decks for waiver wire acqs, a corollary of adds is you have to drop... churn too much &/or in wrong way, and you can just be treading water & breaking even... or worse, backsliding & finding yourself in situation where the talent of your roster relative to that of your leaguemates flowing in the wrong direction...

so what does the board think about mitchell specifically... & some of the timeline thoughts in general...

i myself don't have one, singular strategy... i factor in a lot of things, & might have different time frames contingent on a great many things... which i may expand on below... but for simple example... i think of an accomplished vet differently than unproven rookie, FA type that comes from nowhere, age, pedigree, etc...

 

[Tick]

It all depends on my roster size and balance.

The considerations:

Total roster size

Number of starters

Number of IDP starters

Number of slots taken up by IDPs on my roster

Number of slots taken up by that IDP position on my roster

Strength of my starters at that position

Strength of my depth at that position

Type of depth - useful as a bye week filler or purely a future guy (Al Wilson vs. Barrett Ruud)

Chances at a title this year

Strength of the bottom of my roster

Quality of the waiver wire options each week

Knowledge of the other owners

That's way too much to give a default answer. Even on my three Zealot rosters where the rules are the same, I treat each roster quite differently.

 

[Slinger]

Strength of my starters at that positionStrength of my depth at that position

This is key.In Z-40 I already have:S.MerrimanD.RyansE.SimmsW.WitherspoonJ.TrotterL.HillK.MitchellRight now Mitchell is on a very short leash because I'm happy with my Top 5 LB's and I will probably drop him within the next 2 weeks if he keeps his current pace. I want to try to watch a Chiefs game myself to see what's up with him.In another league I'm much less stable at the LB position, so I'll keep Mitchell and hope he bounces back.

 

[Rozelle]

Many variables come into play, but for me, I try to hold on to my young players until they reach NFL FA status. Never know what a change of scenery and scheme can do.

As far as Kawika, I wouldn't give up on him yet. I' felt he was a bit over-rated/ranked anyway, coming into the season. I had him as a higher tier 3 / lower 4, with a shot at being a solid 2. Right now he playing as nothing more than a bye week fill in.

 

[Jene Bramel]

I'll frequently refer to my signature below -- that's how Norton feels about one part of my dynasty playbook.

I'm a little schizophrenic in this regard. Highly aggressive in some spots, overly patient probably in others. On one hand, I've no problem ridiculously overpaying for a spare part if I'm contending or dealing Shaun Alexander/Ricky Williams the offseason after their best year to maximize value from a championship quality team. On the other, I've been known to hold IDPs (and offensive players) much longer than others might if I feel they have stud potential.

I still have DJ Williams rostered in three different leagues. I've held Sean Jones through two poor seasons. I held Bradie James for 2 1/2 seasons before cutting him. These are in leagues with shallow rosters, not the deep developmental rosters other leagues have. Roster composition is an important factor for me too, but if I can spare a roster spot for a guy who I feel has top ten talent but is awaiting the opportunity, I do it. My playbook is to get as many studs as possible in my starting lineup. I'll happily sacrifice above average or replacement level depth for a chance at a stud.

This is the first year I've gotten back into redraft leagues in a while and I'm finding that it's hard to switch gears. Next season, I'm likely to become a rapid cycler if needed; this season, I've still been holding players I think are likely to bounce back.

Mitchell, specifically?

He's got enough potential and a full year of LB2 production that he warrants a little patience. After four weeks of mediocre production without (IMO) an easy explanation for his poor boxscores, he's got to be on the chopping block in redraft leagues if there's another more productive player out there. You'll get killed holding onto guys like him too long in these leagues if you're relying on him in your starting lineup. While somebody else has moved on to Bart Scott or Eric Barton, you're losing ground.

On the other hand, if your roster is deep in a redraft league or your in a dynasty league -- and there's nothing clearly available on the wire in either situation -- I tend to err on the patient side with these guys. I don't want my replacement level bye week filler in my playoff starting lineup while Mitchell is producing LB2 value on somebody else's roster.

Very roundabout way of saying -- Bob's right, it's all about temperament.

 

[stevegamer]

This is an excellent discussion topic. I'm in a deep (12-team, start 11, roster 45) dynasty league, and I even have Mitchell.

I've pretty much retooled my IDP's since taking over the team, except at LB. I'm goign to go in-depth on my thinking with my team, hopefully it's not too much detail.

I absolutely agree that things vary based on positions. On this team, I feel that I'm young & loaded at DB:

oldest guy is 27- J. Phillips, grabbed this year.

oldest regular is either G. Wilson or Boulware at 25.

I can be patient here for someone who has shown promise, but I'm soo deep, I can cut a guy who was playing well when things go south, which I did with R. Harper, since we don't have IR.

So I'm impatient here, but that's because I know Harper isn't playing. If Phillips loses his job this week, he'll be gone, because then he's not a prospect to improve, and I move on. He doesn't have a track record of success like Mitchell.

My LB's are a different story. At start of year, I had studs in Thomas & Peterson; an old very solid player in Quarles, and then Mitchell & L. Hill. So Mitchell & Hill are my youth. Mitchell was very good last year, and if I cut him, he'll get grabbed. He's performing a little worse than the guys out on the wire, but he has shown an ability to perform at a high level. I view him as a hold for the rest of the season, and evaluate later, as things will change for both him, and my roster. I added a few rookie propsects, Haggans from PIT, and Ellis from DAL got switched to LB from De. So now, he's a little closer to getting cut, but since I want 6-7 non-prospect LB's on the roster to cover byes & injuries, he's got some leeway, but he's now LB6 with Peterson out for the year.

 

[Duke1948]

That's way too much to give a default answer. Even on my three Zealot rosters where the rules are the same, I treat each roster quite differently.

only have 2 teams in Z, but as was said, i treat each with different notions.