the least sexy first round pick is..... (1 Viewer)

[vichawkfan]

this poor FF stud. Every August he gets no street cred. Has a tested, consistantly high octane offense, no 8 stacking the box..... just 1400+ and 12+ TD's each season. Durable? Never missed a game in 3 years. 28 yrs old...no worries there. 80% of the carries...Irons won't get 12 touches (carries anyways) a game, not this season.

The o-line last season underperformed. The Bengals got an attitude adjustment in the offseason, and Rudi is 10lbs lighter coming into camp to gain some acceleration. Why not lock him down in R1 and start aiming for the fences in the next 2-4 rounds? I'm looking at MJD in R2, and perhaps - perhaps Moss in R3...

Only way I do that is I know I'm getting a steady #1 pick.

I'm picking #5 in a keeper league. RB's gone are LT, LJ, SA, Sjax, Addai, Gore, Parker, Westbrook.....

Who takes him before Henry or Maroney ?

Henry - looks like a stud year coming - but there are some "?"'s...Maroney is another young stud, but for my money I'd rather get MJD in the next round....

Please talk me into this plan - or just say Rudi is nothing but a waste of time - over the hill - lacks upside etc etc.

 

[LHUCKS]

Drafting Rudi in the first round = playing for 3rd place

 

[Penguin]

He won't lose you a championship by being a bust but I think his upside is limited. Not a bad pick for people that are strong drafters as you secure a very solid & consistant performer in round one, but that huge "Home Run" upside isn't there. He's the ultimate "safe" pick among RB's, definately not sexy, that's for sure.

 

[vichawkfan]

Drafting Rudi in the first round = playing for 3rd place

1st round pick that will WIN you a championship are 25+TD guys, and they aren't found after 8 picks off the board. I could lose any chance of winning if I took someone in R1 that was injured 3 or more games, or fumbled themselves into a dog-house.If you followed my post - MJD in the 2nd round - not a sure thing, some like Benson, TJ, Portis over him....but he's a freak talent....that might be best offset with a sure thing in R1. That combo COULD lead me to a championship.

 

[I Am Rick James]

I could argue that Payton Manning is THE non sexy 1st round pic to get. Unlike Rudi tough, he does have upside

 

[LHUCKS]

Drafting Rudi in the first round = playing for 3rd place

1st round pick that will WIN you a championship are 25+TD guys, and they aren't found after 8 picks off the board. I could lose any chance of winning if I took someone in R1 that was injured 3 or more games, or fumbled themselves into a dog-house.If you followed my post - MJD in the 2nd round - not a sure thing, some like Benson, TJ, Portis over him....but he's a freak talent....that might be best offset with a sure thing in R1. That combo COULD lead me to a championship.

In a dynasty, Rudi is just not even close in this situation...you are very off the mark.

 

[Penguin]

Drafting Rudi in the first round = playing for 3rd place

1st round pick that will WIN you a championship are 25+TD guys, and they aren't found after 8 picks off the board. I could lose any chance of winning if I took someone in R1 that was injured 3 or more games, or fumbled themselves into a dog-house.If you followed my post - MJD in the 2nd round - not a sure thing, some like Benson, TJ, Portis over him....but he's a freak talent....that might be best offset with a sure thing in R1. That combo COULD lead me to a championship.

In a dynasty, Rudi is just not even close in this situation...you are very off the mark.

Rudi definately gets discounted some in a Dynasty (at least in my mind.) I've previously been vocal as to my opinion about Kenny Irons starting in '09 for the Bengals, many disagree and point out that Rudi is signed through the 2009 season at a reasonable rate, they may end up being right. I think we'll have a good feel for the answer in the fall of 2008. In PPR leagues Rudi takes a hit as well, he drops to the early 2nd for me. If you're talking Dynasty PPR's Rudi drops to the mid/late 2nd.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Drafting Rudi in the first round = playing for 3rd place

I agree. I wont be drafting him this according to his adp slot.

 

[Mystery Achiever]

Who takes him before Henry or Maroney ?

in this scenario, i go for rudi; i have no problem with unsexy picks

 

[Banger]

This is the year Rudi drops from the top 10. I don't see a dramatic dropoff but I believe his line will be weaker this year, I think there is more overall talent at the RB position and don't see him improving a lot on his 3.8 ypc from last year. With his lack of receiving, if his td's drop to 8-9 he'd probably end up 14-16th. He's safe, not much upside and the downside is pretty limited.

 

[Rounders]

I agree with you on this one. Rudi is a safe solid pick in round 1 and allows you to take some chances in round 2. I'm leaning towards Rudi at the 9 spot and then would swing for the fences in my 10 teamer in rounds 2 & 3.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I'd just like to make a point about Rudi's "consistency" and how predictable his stats will be.

Exactly one RB before last season (when Rudi and Corey Dillon both did it) rushed for between 11 and 13 TDs in three straight years. It was Barry Sanders, who rushed for 4 TDs the next season.

Seven others rushed for between 10 and 14 TDs in three straight years. Neal Anderson did it, and then rushed for 6 TDs the next season. Eric Dickerson did it, and then rushed for 6 TDs. Franco Harris rushed for 8 the next year, Walter Payton rushed for 14 the next year, and then 6 the next year (he counts twice), Tomlinson rushed for 17, and Steve Van Buren rushed for 4. So to say "Rudi is a lock for 12 TDs" or anything near twelve is pretty tenuous. I'm not sure Rudi's projected TD output will be any easier than any other RB.

How about the fact that Rudi has rushed for between 1300 and 1500 yards the past three years? That's only happened five other times. Well Stephen Davis did that, then rushed for 820 yards. Corey Dillon did it for the same Bengals, and then rushed for 541. Marshall Faulk did it, rushed for 1382, and then (he counts twice) 953. Thurman Thomas? 1053. Once again, it looks tenuous to claim that Rudi is a reliable, 1400 yard rusher and don't think twice about it.

Projections are difficult. It looks simple enough to jot Rudi down for the same numbers he's had the past three years, but had you done that before, you'd have been wrong way more often than you'd been right.

 

[Buckna]

Drafting Rudi in the first round = playing for 3rd place

I posted this in another Rudi thread about a month ago:

I don't really understand this whole "few people will win leagues with Rudi" argument. Last I checked, a fantasy team was made up of more than 1 RB. How many teams won with Ronnie Brown last year? Or Edge? Or Caddy? Or Portis? Or Lamont Jordan? All of those guys had similar ADP to Rudi last year. I'm sure your team was a lot better off with Rudi than any of those guys just mentioned.

 

[TheFanatic]

Drafting Rudi in the first round = playing for 3rd place

I totally disagree. Rudi is a rock solid late first round pick. It's in the 5th, 6th, and 7th rounds that championships are won and lost unless you get the latest guy to break the TD record in the first round. What round did Frank Gore go last year? I got him in the 6th of an initial dynasty draft. What about Addai? In a PPR league he was huge and he went in the 4th round of that draft. A guy like Kellen Winslow was taken in the 8th and with 90 recepts, in a PPR league he was 2nd at TE....

 

[Banger]

I'd just like to make a point about Rudi's "consistency" and how predictable his stats will be.Exactly one RB before last season (when Rudi and Corey Dillon both did it) rushed for between 11 and 13 TDs in three straight years. It was Barry Sanders, who rushed for 4 TDs the next season. Seven others rushed for between 10 and 14 TDs in three straight years. Neal Anderson did it, and then rushed for 6 TDs the next season. Eric Dickerson did it, and then rushed for 6 TDs. Franco Harris rushed for 8 the next year, Walter Payton rushed for 14 the next year, and then 6 the next year (he counts twice), Tomlinson rushed for 17, and Steve Van Buren rushed for 4. So to say "Rudi is a lock for 12 TDs" or anything near twelve is pretty tenuous. I'm not sure Rudi's projected TD output will be any easier than any other RB.How about the fact that Rudi has rushed for between 1300 and 1500 yards the past three years? That's only happened five other times. Well Stephen Davis did that, then rushed for 820 yards. Corey Dillon did it for the same Bengals, and then rushed for 541. Marshall Faulk did it, rushed for 1382, and then (he counts twice) 953. Thurman Thomas? 1053. Once again, it looks tenuous to claim that Rudi is a reliable, 1400 yard rusher and don't think twice about it.Projections are difficult. It looks simple enough to jot Rudi down for the same numbers he's had the past three years, but had you done that before, you'd have been wrong way more often than you'd been right.

Outstanding stuff.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I'd just like to make a point about Rudi's "consistency" and how predictable his stats will be.Exactly one RB before last season (when Rudi and Corey Dillon both did it) rushed for between 11 and 13 TDs in three straight years. It was Barry Sanders, who rushed for 4 TDs the next season. Seven others rushed for between 10 and 14 TDs in three straight years. Neal Anderson did it, and then rushed for 6 TDs the next season. Eric Dickerson did it, and then rushed for 6 TDs. Franco Harris rushed for 8 the next year, Walter Payton rushed for 14 the next year, and then 6 the next year (he counts twice), Tomlinson rushed for 17, and Steve Van Buren rushed for 4. So to say "Rudi is a lock for 12 TDs" or anything near twelve is pretty tenuous. I'm not sure Rudi's projected TD output will be any easier than any other RB.How about the fact that Rudi has rushed for between 1300 and 1500 yards the past three years? That's only happened five other times. Well Stephen Davis did that, then rushed for 820 yards. Corey Dillon did it for the same Bengals, and then rushed for 541. Marshall Faulk did it, rushed for 1382, and then (he counts twice) 953. Thurman Thomas? 1053. Once again, it looks tenuous to claim that Rudi is a reliable, 1400 yard rusher and don't think twice about it.Projections are difficult. It looks simple enough to jot Rudi down for the same numbers he's had the past three years, but had you done that before, you'd have been wrong way more often than you'd been right.

good history lesson there. And handcuff Irons

 

[-Crippler-]

I'd just like to make a point about Rudi's "consistency" and how predictable his stats will be.Exactly one RB before last season (when Rudi and Corey Dillon both did it) rushed for between 11 and 13 TDs in three straight years. It was Barry Sanders, who rushed for 4 TDs the next season. Seven others rushed for between 10 and 14 TDs in three straight years. Neal Anderson did it, and then rushed for 6 TDs the next season. Eric Dickerson did it, and then rushed for 6 TDs. Franco Harris rushed for 8 the next year, Walter Payton rushed for 14 the next year, and then 6 the next year (he counts twice), Tomlinson rushed for 17, and Steve Van Buren rushed for 4. So to say "Rudi is a lock for 12 TDs" or anything near twelve is pretty tenuous. I'm not sure Rudi's projected TD output will be any easier than any other RB.How about the fact that Rudi has rushed for between 1300 and 1500 yards the past three years? That's only happened five other times. Well Stephen Davis did that, then rushed for 820 yards. Corey Dillon did it for the same Bengals, and then rushed for 541. Marshall Faulk did it, rushed for 1382, and then (he counts twice) 953. Thurman Thomas? 1053. Once again, it looks tenuous to claim that Rudi is a reliable, 1400 yard rusher and don't think twice about it.Projections are difficult. It looks simple enough to jot Rudi down for the same numbers he's had the past three years, but had you done that before, you'd have been wrong way more often than you'd been right.

And how many RBs did this for 2 straight seasons and then did terrible in the 3rd season? Probably 90% of backs not named Rudi Johnson.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Drafting Rudi in the first round = playing for 3rd place

I agree 100%Had him last year so I watched a number of his games. With my first round pick I would much rather have a guy with more upside. We know Rudi's celling...however I think this year we see his floor. He is also VERY boring to watch and part of FF for me is having fun watching a team full of exciting players.

 

[Broadway Danny Rose]

I'd just like to make a point about Rudi's "consistency" and how predictable his stats will be.Exactly one RB before last season (when Rudi and Corey Dillon both did it) rushed for between 11 and 13 TDs in three straight years. It was Barry Sanders, who rushed for 4 TDs the next season. Seven others rushed for between 10 and 14 TDs in three straight years. Neal Anderson did it, and then rushed for 6 TDs the next season. Eric Dickerson did it, and then rushed for 6 TDs. Franco Harris rushed for 8 the next year, Walter Payton rushed for 14 the next year, and then 6 the next year (he counts twice), Tomlinson rushed for 17, and Steve Van Buren rushed for 4. So to say "Rudi is a lock for 12 TDs" or anything near twelve is pretty tenuous. I'm not sure Rudi's projected TD output will be any easier than any other RB.How about the fact that Rudi has rushed for between 1300 and 1500 yards the past three years? That's only happened five other times. Well Stephen Davis did that, then rushed for 820 yards. Corey Dillon did it for the same Bengals, and then rushed for 541. Marshall Faulk did it, rushed for 1382, and then (he counts twice) 953. Thurman Thomas? 1053. Once again, it looks tenuous to claim that Rudi is a reliable, 1400 yard rusher and don't think twice about it.Projections are difficult. It looks simple enough to jot Rudi down for the same numbers he's had the past three years, but had you done that before, you'd have been wrong way more often than you'd been right.

Maybe true, but Rudy is on one of the highest powered offenses in the league. He should put up very solid - and consistent - numbers this year. He is what he is. Not exactly tremendous upside, but the downside isn't great either.

 

[vichawkfan]

I could argue that Payton Manning is THE non sexy 1st round pic to get. Unlike Rudi tough, he does have upside

Manning is also off the board and this is a non-PPR - not dynasty, but a ONE year keeper (in the round you draft him).

 

[corpcow]

Who takes him before Henry or Maroney ?

in this scenario, i go for rudi; i have no problem with unsexy picks

As much as I like Travis Henry and Maroney, (in a redraft) I would love to trade down a few spots and grab Rudi instead. Yeah, Rudi is less risk, but he's not necessarily less reward either. He may not be the kind of guy who will have an LT-like season, but his consistency is about the same level as many of these other guys' upside in a non-PPR.

Would anyone be disappointed with Henry or Maroney if they put up 1400 total yards and 12 TDs? (Those are about the highest FBG projections for either guy). Well, here you have a guy who has done that every year, even in a year where they struggled and the start QB was recovering from an ACL tear suffered in the playoffs.

Personally, I like my upside in mid/late round guys, not first round picks who "might" be monsters. I'll point outof the top 10 RBs last year, at least 3 of them - Gore, MJD, Betts - were not even considered in the first round, and a couple of others (Deuce, Willie Parker) were probably second round grabs.

It's laughable to say "pick Rudi and you're playing for 3rd place". Championships are not won with upside from 1400/12 - they are won by getting that same 1400/12 from a 4th or later rd pick.

 

[vichawkfan]

Drafting Rudi in the first round = playing for 3rd place

I agree 100%Had him last year so I watched a number of his games. With my first round pick I would much rather have a guy with more upside. We know Rudi's celling...however I think this year we see his floor. He is also VERY boring to watch and part of FF for me is having fun watching a team full of exciting players.

the o-line as a whole struggled last season - Carson was sacked 13 times more than the previous year. Rudi's 3.8 is not , IMO, going to be as low this season. I'm also not excited about watching Rudi, or the Bengals. But part of the #1 pick for me is not having to worry about what's happenning...is he getting pulled for fumbles, or injured etc.Once again, MJD in the 2nd....upside HUGE, and exciting to watch....

 

[Banger]

Drafting Rudi in the first round = playing for 3rd place

I agree 100%Had him last year so I watched a number of his games. With my first round pick I would much rather have a guy with more upside. We know Rudi's celling...however I think this year we see his floor. He is also VERY boring to watch and part of FF for me is having fun watching a team full of exciting players.

the o-line as a whole struggled last season - Carson was sacked 13 times more than the previous year. Rudi's 3.8 is not , IMO, going to be as low this season.

Didn't they lose one of their best lineman to FA in the offseason? Is there a reason to expect their line to improve from last year?

 

[Usual21]

In my auction dynasty, we are allowed to keep $75 worth of players out of our $200 cap. Monetary value is based on 20% of last years points. Luckily, I am able to keep both Rudi and MJD for exactly $75. Or I can trade Rudi for Willie Parker. The owner of FWP wants to trade him since he will cost more to keep. If I trade for FWP, i won't be able to keep MJD, but will be able to keep TJ along with FWP. Choices....

 

[vichawkfan]

Drafting Rudi in the first round = playing for 3rd place

I agree 100%Had him last year so I watched a number of his games. With my first round pick I would much rather have a guy with more upside. We know Rudi's celling...however I think this year we see his floor. He is also VERY boring to watch and part of FF for me is having fun watching a team full of exciting players.

the o-line as a whole struggled last season - Carson was sacked 13 times more than the previous year. Rudi's 3.8 is not , IMO, going to be as low this season.

Didn't they lose one of their best lineman to FA in the offseason? Is there a reason to expect their line to improve from last year?

they lost Steinbach - he's never made a pro-bowl and was grossly over-paid. Check the stats on sacks and YPC - the unit underperformed last year. They have top tackles, monster size guards and two vet centers.

 

[LHUCKS]

Drafting Rudi in the first round = playing for 3rd place

I agree 100%Had him last year so I watched a number of his games. With my first round pick I would much rather have a guy with more upside. We know Rudi's celling...however I think this year we see his floor. He is also VERY boring to watch and part of FF for me is having fun watching a team full of exciting players.

the o-line as a whole struggled last season - Carson was sacked 13 times more than the previous year. Rudi's 3.8 is not , IMO, going to be as low this season.

Didn't they lose one of their best lineman to FA in the offseason? Is there a reason to expect their line to improve from last year?

they lost Steinbach - he's never made a pro-bowl and was grossly over-paid. Check the stats on sacks and YPC

Rudi is at least partially to blame for a low YPC.

 

[vichawkfan]

Drafting Rudi in the first round = playing for 3rd place

I agree 100%Had him last year so I watched a number of his games. With my first round pick I would much rather have a guy with more upside. We know Rudi's celling...however I think this year we see his floor. He is also VERY boring to watch and part of FF for me is having fun watching a team full of exciting players.

the o-line as a whole struggled last season - Carson was sacked 13 times more than the previous year. Rudi's 3.8 is not , IMO, going to be as low this season.

Didn't they lose one of their best lineman to FA in the offseason? Is there a reason to expect their line to improve from last year?

they lost Steinbach - he's never made a pro-bowl and was grossly over-paid. Check the stats on sacks and YPC

Rudi is at least partially to blame for a low YPC.

partially sure - Carson has to take some blame from going from 10 sacks to 23 too. Rudi had two brutal games as far as YPC go vs the Ravens and Steelers last season. Remove those games, and he was 4.1.

 

[BGP]

I'd just like to make a point about Rudi's "consistency" and how predictable his stats will be.Exactly one RB before last season (when Rudi and Corey Dillon both did it) rushed for between 11 and 13 TDs in three straight years. It was Barry Sanders, who rushed for 4 TDs the next season. Seven others rushed for between 10 and 14 TDs in three straight years. Neal Anderson did it, and then rushed for 6 TDs the next season. Eric Dickerson did it, and then rushed for 6 TDs. Franco Harris rushed for 8 the next year, Walter Payton rushed for 14 the next year, and then 6 the next year (he counts twice), Tomlinson rushed for 17, and Steve Van Buren rushed for 4. So to say "Rudi is a lock for 12 TDs" or anything near twelve is pretty tenuous. I'm not sure Rudi's projected TD output will be any easier than any other RB.How about the fact that Rudi has rushed for between 1300 and 1500 yards the past three years? That's only happened five other times. Well Stephen Davis did that, then rushed for 820 yards. Corey Dillon did it for the same Bengals, and then rushed for 541. Marshall Faulk did it, rushed for 1382, and then (he counts twice) 953. Thurman Thomas? 1053. Once again, it looks tenuous to claim that Rudi is a reliable, 1400 yard rusher and don't think twice about it.Projections are difficult. It looks simple enough to jot Rudi down for the same numbers he's had the past three years, but had you done that before, you'd have been wrong way more often than you'd been right.

On the other hand, had to assumed Emmitt Smith would rush for between 9-12 TDs, with potential for more, you'd have been correct for 7 straight years from 90-96. In 1997, he only scored 4 times. If you pencilled LT for 10-13 TDs every year with the potential for more, that's been right for 6 straight years and counting. Ricky Watters would be good for his first 5 years between 9-13, altho you have to fudge it a bit and say he had 6 rushing and 5 receiving. Shaun Alexander was good for 14, 16, 14, 16, 27 for 5 straight years until that was snapped last season when he had 7.

 

[BGP]

Drafting Rudi in the first round = playing for 3rd place

I agree 100%Had him last year so I watched a number of his games. With my first round pick I would much rather have a guy with more upside. We know Rudi's celling...however I think this year we see his floor. He is also VERY boring to watch and part of FF for me is having fun watching a team full of exciting players.

the o-line as a whole struggled last season - Carson was sacked 13 times more than the previous year. Rudi's 3.8 is not , IMO, going to be as low this season. I'm also not excited about watching Rudi, or the Bengals. But part of the #1 pick for me is not having to worry about what's happenning...is he getting pulled for fumbles, or injured etc.Once again, MJD in the 2nd....upside HUGE, and exciting to watch....

The Bengals OL was hit with some injuries and they had to reshuffle a bit to fix that, but this is also a team that scored 373 points, which ain't bad. I think the Bengals liked G Andrew Whitworth (2nd round draft pick in 2006) and that helped make it easier to let Steinbach go.

 

[BGP]

Oh and for full disclosure, I selected Rudi Johnson in my fantasy draft. I did so because I'm comfortable with the Bengals' OL and their offense in general.

 

[LHUCKS]

Drafting Rudi in the first round = playing for 3rd place

I agree 100%Had him last year so I watched a number of his games. With my first round pick I would much rather have a guy with more upside. We know Rudi's celling...however I think this year we see his floor. He is also VERY boring to watch and part of FF for me is having fun watching a team full of exciting players.

the o-line as a whole struggled last season - Carson was sacked 13 times more than the previous year. Rudi's 3.8 is not , IMO, going to be as low this season.

Didn't they lose one of their best lineman to FA in the offseason? Is there a reason to expect their line to improve from last year?

they lost Steinbach - he's never made a pro-bowl and was grossly over-paid. Check the stats on sacks and YPC

Rudi is at least partially to blame for a low YPC.

partially sure - Carson has to take some blame from going from 10 sacks to 23 too. Rudi had two brutal games as far as YPC go vs the Ravens and Steelers last season. Remove those games, and he was 4.1.

Unfortunately you can't remove Steelers and Ravens games because he plays them twice each year.Rudi is a lock for another mediocre YPC this year...write it down.

 

[Sweetness_34]

Didn't the Bengals lose their starting C and other OL last year? Injuries notwithstanding, shouldn't that help Rudi this year?

Yeah he does play Ravens and Steelers twice this year but he also plays the Browns twice and the entire NFC West (all of those teams stink against the run). Look at his playoff schedule (week 14 to 16 bolded below) ..... also in the reg season he gets a lot of cup cake run defenses like Sea, Bills, Jets, Niners, Tenessee.....

Wouldn't you want a RB that has a better playoff schedule than one that may get similar #s but has a worse playoff schedule? Doesn't the playoff schedule actually be part of the upside????

Sep 10 Baltimore 7:00pm (#2 rush D in 2006 reg season)

Sep 16 @Cleveland 1:00pm (#29 rush D in 2006 reg season)

Sep 23 @Seattle 4:05pm (#22 rush D in 2006 reg season)

Oct 1 New England 8:30pm (#5 rush D in 2006 reg season)

Week 5 BYE

Oct 14 @Kansas City 1:00pm (#18 rush D in 2006 reg season)

Oct 21 N.Y. Jets 4:05pm (#24 rush D in 2006 reg season)

Oct 28 Pittsburgh 1:00pm (#3 rush D in 2006 reg season)

Nov 4 @Buffalo 1:00pm (#2 rush D in 2006 reg season)

Nov 11 @Baltimore 4:05pm (#28 rush D in 2006 reg season)

Nov 18 Arizona 1:00pm (#16 rush D in 2006 reg season)

Nov 25 Tennessee 1:00pm (#30 rush D in 2006 reg season)

Dec 2 @Pittsburgh 8:15pm (#3 rush D in 2006 reg season)

Dec 9 St. Louis 1:00pm (#31 rush D in 2006 reg season)

Dec 15 @San Francisco 8:15pm (#19 rush D in 2006 reg season)

Dec 23 Cleveland 1:00pm (#29 rush D in 2006 reg season)

Dec 30 @Miami 1:00pm

 

[Lash]

i just went Portis/Rudi on the 1.16/2.01 turnaround and am happy as can be

 

[DrJ]

I'd just like to make a point about Rudi's "consistency" and how predictable his stats will be.Exactly one RB before last season (when Rudi and Corey Dillon both did it) rushed for between 11 and 13 TDs in three straight years. It was Barry Sanders, who rushed for 4 TDs the next season. Seven others rushed for between 10 and 14 TDs in three straight years. Neal Anderson did it, and then rushed for 6 TDs the next season. Eric Dickerson did it, and then rushed for 6 TDs. Franco Harris rushed for 8 the next year, Walter Payton rushed for 14 the next year, and then 6 the next year (he counts twice), Tomlinson rushed for 17, and Steve Van Buren rushed for 4. So to say "Rudi is a lock for 12 TDs" or anything near twelve is pretty tenuous. I'm not sure Rudi's projected TD output will be any easier than any other RB.How about the fact that Rudi has rushed for between 1300 and 1500 yards the past three years? That's only happened five other times. Well Stephen Davis did that, then rushed for 820 yards. Corey Dillon did it for the same Bengals, and then rushed for 541. Marshall Faulk did it, rushed for 1382, and then (he counts twice) 953. Thurman Thomas? 1053. Once again, it looks tenuous to claim that Rudi is a reliable, 1400 yard rusher and don't think twice about it.Projections are difficult. It looks simple enough to jot Rudi down for the same numbers he's had the past three years, but had you done that before, you'd have been wrong way more often than you'd been right.

So you're going to consider sample sizes of 5 and 7 to be significant enough to actually indicate trends?

 

[NinerK]

Drafting Rudi in the first round = playing for 3rd place

LHUCKS knows things. In our 12 performance league, MJD, FWP,Gore, Bush and Tiki outscored Rudi. Rudi scored a whopping 4 pts. more than Ladell Betts.

 

[Peyton Marino]

Seven others rushed for between 10 and 14 TDs in three straight years. Neal Anderson did it, and then rushed for 6 TDs the next season. Eric Dickerson did it, and then rushed for 6 TDs. Franco Harris rushed for 8 the next year, Walter Payton rushed for 14 the next year, and then 6 the next year (he counts twice), Tomlinson rushed for 17, and Steve Van Buren rushed for 4. So to say "Rudi is a lock for 12 TDs" or anything near twelve is pretty tenuous. I'm not sure Rudi's projected TD output will be any easier than any other RB.How about the fact that Rudi has rushed for between 1300 and 1500 yards the past three years? That's only happened five other times. Well Stephen Davis did that, then rushed for 820 yards. Corey Dillon did it for the same Bengals, and then rushed for 541. Marshall Faulk did it, rushed for 1382, and then (he counts twice) 953. Thurman Thomas? 1053. Once again, it looks tenuous to claim that Rudi is a reliable, 1400 yard rusher and don't think twice about it.

how many of these guys fell off due to injury, RBBC, losing the job, etc.

 

[-Crippler-]

Drafting Rudi in the first round = playing for 3rd place

LHUCKS knows things. In our 12 performance league, MJD, FWP,Gore, Bush and Tiki outscored Rudi. Rudi scored an almost guaranteed, consistent, no-risk 4 pts. more than Ladell Betts (who did very well and got extremely lucky to be in the right place at the right time)...without the potential to crash and burn like many ranked above him did!

Edited for correct...ivity?

 

[NinerK]

Drafting Rudi in the first round = playing for 3rd place

LHUCKS knows things. In our 12 performance league, MJD, FWP,Gore, Bush and Tiki outscored Rudi. Rudi scored an almost guaranteed, consistent, no-risk 4 pts. more than Ladell Betts (who did very well and got extremely lucky to be in the right place at the right time)...without the potential to crash and burn like many ranked above him did!

Edited for correct...ivity?

:crippling:

 

[NinerK]

Drafting Rudi in the first round = playing for 3rd place

LHUCKS knows things. In our 12 performance league, MJD, FWP,Gore, Bush and Tiki outscored Rudi. Rudi scored an almost guaranteed, consistent, no-risk 4 pts. more than Ladell Betts (who did very well and got extremely lucky to be in the right place at the right time)...without the potential to crash and burn like many ranked above him did!

Edited for correct...ivity?

Rudi @ #5???!!! Come' on, you do that, you'll be crippling your team with almost guaranteed,consistent, no risk 4 pts. more than Ladell Betts.Which 5 late 1st and middle 2nd rounders will outscore Rudi this year?

This could be a prop bet.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Didn't the Bengals lose their starting C and other OL last year? Injuries notwithstanding, shouldn't that help Rudi this year?

Yeah he does play Ravens and Steelers twice this year but he also plays the Browns twice and the entire NFC West (all of those teams stink against the run). Look at his playoff schedule (week 14 to 16 bolded below) ..... also in the reg season he gets a lot of cup cake run defenses like Sea, Bills, Jets, Niners, Tenessee.....

Wouldn't you want a RB that has a better playoff schedule than one that may get similar #s but has a worse playoff schedule? Doesn't the playoff schedule actually be part of the upside????

Sep 10 Baltimore 7:00pm (#2 rush D in 2006 reg season)

Sep 16 @Cleveland 1:00pm (#29 rush D in 2006 reg season)

Sep 23 @Seattle 4:05pm (#22 rush D in 2006 reg season)

Oct 1 New England 8:30pm (#5 rush D in 2006 reg season)

Week 5 BYE

Oct 14 @Kansas City 1:00pm (#18 rush D in 2006 reg season)

Oct 21 N.Y. Jets 4:05pm (#24 rush D in 2006 reg season)

Oct 28 Pittsburgh 1:00pm (#3 rush D in 2006 reg season)

Nov 4 @Buffalo 1:00pm (#2 rush D in 2006 reg season)

Nov 11 @Baltimore 4:05pm (#2 rush D in 2006 reg season)

Nov 18 Arizona 1:00pm (#16 rush D in 2006 reg season)

Nov 25 Tennessee 1:00pm (#30 rush D in 2006 reg season)

Dec 2 @Pittsburgh 8:15pm (#3 rush D in 2006 reg season)

Dec 9 St. Louis 1:00pm (#31 rush D in 2006 reg season)

Dec 15 @San Francisco 8:15pm (#19 rush D in 2006 reg season)

Dec 23 Cleveland 1:00pm (#29 rush D in 2006 reg season)

Dec 30 @Miami 1:00pm

You have to get there first

 

[BigRed]

Drafting Rudi in the first round = playing for 3rd place

However the losses on the OL and what Chase said above are what really concern me about Rudi. And 28 isn't ancient but it's getting up there for a workhorse who's taken his share of punishment. Look I've owned the guy the last 2 yrs and like him and all, but you have to look at the situation THIS year and no go on liking the guy. Otherwise Owens sure wouldn't be my #1 WR.

 

[-Crippler-]

Drafting Rudi in the first round = playing for 3rd place

LHUCKS knows things. In our 12 performance league, MJD, FWP,Gore, Bush and Tiki outscored Rudi. Rudi scored an almost guaranteed, consistent, no-risk 4 pts. more than Ladell Betts (who did very well and got extremely lucky to be in the right place at the right time)...without the potential to crash and burn like many ranked above him did!

Edited for correct...ivity?

Rudi @ #5???!!! Come' on, you do that, you'll be crippling your team with almost guaranteed,consistent, no risk 4 pts. more than Ladell Betts.Which 5 late 1st and middle 2nd rounders will outscore Rudi this year?

This could be a prop bet.

Who said anything about #5? Now you're just making stuff up...

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Didn't the Bengals lose their starting C and other OL last year? Injuries notwithstanding, shouldn't that help Rudi this year?

Yeah he does play Ravens and Steelers twice this year but he also plays the Browns twice and the entire NFC West (all of those teams stink against the run). Look at his playoff schedule (week 14 to 16 bolded below) ..... also in the reg season he gets a lot of cup cake run defenses like Sea, Bills, Jets, Niners, Tenessee.....

Wouldn't you want a RB that has a better playoff schedule than one that may get similar #s but has a worse playoff schedule? Doesn't the playoff schedule actually be part of the upside????

Sep 10 Baltimore 7:00pm (#2 rush D in 2006 reg season)

Sep 16 @Cleveland 1:00pm (#29 rush D in 2006 reg season)

Sep 23 @Seattle 4:05pm (#22 rush D in 2006 reg season)

Oct 1 New England 8:30pm (#5 rush D in 2006 reg season)

Week 5 BYE

Oct 14 @Kansas City 1:00pm (#18 rush D in 2006 reg season)

Oct 21 N.Y. Jets 4:05pm (#24 rush D in 2006 reg season)

Oct 28 Pittsburgh 1:00pm (#3 rush D in 2006 reg season)

Nov 4 @Buffalo 1:00pm (#2 rush D in 2006 reg season)

Nov 11 @Baltimore 4:05pm (#2 rush D in 2006 reg season)

Nov 18 Arizona 1:00pm (#16 rush D in 2006 reg season)

Nov 25 Tennessee 1:00pm (#30 rush D in 2006 reg season)

Dec 2 @Pittsburgh 8:15pm (#3 rush D in 2006 reg season)

Dec 9 St. Louis 1:00pm (#31 rush D in 2006 reg season)

Dec 15 @San Francisco 8:15pm (#19 rush D in 2006 reg season)

Dec 23 Cleveland 1:00pm (#29 rush D in 2006 reg season)

Dec 30 @Miami 1:00pm

You have to get there first

I respectfully disagree. I always plan and expect on getting there.Thus I always plan on having the best options once there.

That doesnt mean I like Rudi anymore bescause of that ending schedule, however.

 

[kensat30]

If Rudi doesn't score a TD in any given week, you are toast.

The guy does not catch the ball. You either need him to score a TD or rush for 100+ to reach double digit points. And from my RB#1, I demand consistent double digit weeks, in addition to some blowup 20+ weeks. Rudi does not do that for you. All you guys preaching Rudi at #7, #8 overall will learn their lesson once you start the guy for 16 straight weeks (assuming he stays healthy).

Week by week scoring for Rudi could easily look like = 20, 9, 8, 8, 8, 9

Hell, if I want 7 or 8 points every week with the occassional big game, I'll draft Chad Johnson in the first round.

 

[ImTheScientist]

If Rudi doesn't score a TD in any given week, you are toast.

The guy does not catch the ball. You either need him to score a TD or rush for 100+ to reach double digit points. And from my RB#1, I demand consistent double digit weeks, in addition to some blowup 20+ weeks. Rudi does not do that for you. All you guys preaching Rudi at #7, #8 overall will learn their lesson once you start the guy for 16 straight weeks (assuming he stays healthy).

Week by week scoring for Rudi could easily look like = 20, 9, 8, 8, 8, 9

Hell, if I want 7 or 8 points every week with the occassional big game, I'll draft Chad Johnson in the first round.

Learned mine last year

 

[crimsonrebel]

Did'nt we have this thread last year? lol Well i rode him to 3rd place last year. i wont draft him if i hace the #6 slot of 14 agaian, but i would take him if i had a lower slot.

 

[Sweetness_34]

Didn't the Bengals lose their starting C and other OL last year? Injuries notwithstanding, shouldn't that help Rudi this year?

Yeah he does play Ravens and Steelers twice this year but he also plays the Browns twice and the entire NFC West (all of those teams stink against the run). Look at his playoff schedule (week 14 to 16 bolded below) ..... also in the reg season he gets a lot of cup cake run defenses like Sea, Bills, Jets, Niners, Tenessee.....

Wouldn't you want a RB that has a better playoff schedule than one that may get similar #s but has a worse playoff schedule? Doesn't the playoff schedule actually be part of the upside????

Sep 10 Baltimore 7:00pm (#2 rush D in 2006 reg season)

Sep 16 @Cleveland 1:00pm (#29 rush D in 2006 reg season)

Sep 23 @Seattle 4:05pm (#22 rush D in 2006 reg season)

Oct 1 New England 8:30pm (#5 rush D in 2006 reg season)

Week 5 BYE

Oct 14 @Kansas City 1:00pm (#18 rush D in 2006 reg season)

Oct 21 N.Y. Jets 4:05pm (#24 rush D in 2006 reg season)

Oct 28 Pittsburgh 1:00pm (#3 rush D in 2006 reg season)

Nov 4 @Buffalo 1:00pm (#2 rush D in 2006 reg season)

Nov 11 @Baltimore 4:05pm (#2 rush D in 2006 reg season)

Nov 18 Arizona 1:00pm (#16 rush D in 2006 reg season)

Nov 25 Tennessee 1:00pm (#30 rush D in 2006 reg season)

Dec 2 @Pittsburgh 8:15pm (#3 rush D in 2006 reg season)

Dec 9 St. Louis 1:00pm (#31 rush D in 2006 reg season)

Dec 15 @San Francisco 8:15pm (#19 rush D in 2006 reg season)

Dec 23 Cleveland 1:00pm (#29 rush D in 2006 reg season)

Dec 30 @Miami 1:00pm

You have to get there first

And games against Tenessee, Kansas City, Seattle, Arizona, Jets, Bills, Browns will not help you get there? Look at the run D #s from last year. Even if they improve some, how much? Do you always selectively look at data???? Also, Baltimore lost one of their best LBs, Ray lewis is another year older (not sure how much he has left); Steelers lost one of their best LBs in Porter and their rookie Timmons may not even play this year and Bengals get their OL healthier this year than last. I do not see one playmaker signed by any of those teams I just listed that makes their D better this year compared to last...can you?

 

[Sweetness_34]

If Rudi doesn't score a TD in any given week, you are toast.

The guy does not catch the ball. You either need him to score a TD or rush for 100+ to reach double digit points. And from my RB#1, I demand consistent double digit weeks, in addition to some blowup 20+ weeks. Rudi does not do that for you. All you guys preaching Rudi at #7, #8 overall will learn their lesson once you start the guy for 16 straight weeks (assuming he stays healthy).

Week by week scoring for Rudi could easily look like = 20, 9, 8, 8, 8, 9

Hell, if I want 7 or 8 points every week with the occassional big game, I'll draft Chad Johnson in the first round.

Reggie Bush: 5.5 catches/game (only 1 year data in a RBBC situation)Joe Addai: 2.5 catches/game (only 1 year data in a RBBC situation)

Clinton Portis: 2.5 catches/game (only counting games he started in his career)

Shaun Alexander: 2.32 catches/game (only counting games he started in his career)

Rudi J: 1.76 catches/game (only counting games he started in his career)

FWP: 1.67 catches/game (only counting games he started in his career)

Laurence Maroney: 1.57 catches/game (only 1 year data in a RBBC situation)

No real data for Cedric Benson.

So looking at backs with similar ADP as Rudi, except for Bush (no surprise there), no other RB is really that much better at catching passes are they? I have not listed Westbrook but he is clearly superior there too, no surprise.

Yes, Addai, Benson and Maroney will get more opportunities with no RBBC now, but I am not convinced that is a such a big deal when you look at the yards and TDs you are almost guaranteed with Rudi (injuries not withstanding)

 

[Chase Stuart]

Seven others rushed for between 10 and 14 TDs in three straight years. Neal Anderson did it, and then rushed for 6 TDs the next season. Eric Dickerson did it, and then rushed for 6 TDs. Franco Harris rushed for 8 the next year, Walter Payton rushed for 14 the next year, and then 6 the next year (he counts twice), Tomlinson rushed for 17, and Steve Van Buren rushed for 4. So to say "Rudi is a lock for 12 TDs" or anything near twelve is pretty tenuous. I'm not sure Rudi's projected TD output will be any easier than any other RB.How about the fact that Rudi has rushed for between 1300 and 1500 yards the past three years? That's only happened five other times. Well Stephen Davis did that, then rushed for 820 yards. Corey Dillon did it for the same Bengals, and then rushed for 541. Marshall Faulk did it, rushed for 1382, and then (he counts twice) 953. Thurman Thomas? 1053. Once again, it looks tenuous to claim that Rudi is a reliable, 1400 yard rusher and don't think twice about it.

how many of these guys fell off due to injury, RBBC, losing the job, etc.

I'm not sure what you mean by "etc", but I don't see why Rudi Johnson is less likely to lose his job due to injury or RBBC than Walter Payton or Barry Sanders.

 

[da5exx]

I got Travis Henry in the first round with the 11th pick in a 14 team league. I got Rudi in the second round with the 18th overall pick. So in my league, you were right. He was overlooked for sexier picks but at the 18th spot, he was a steal.