The New England Patriots Offense (1 Viewer)

[timschochet]

The 2007 New England Patriots offense was the greatest I have ever seen in the NFL, plain and simple. While I personally have no love for this franchise, it must be said that the additions of Randy Moss and Wes Welker, combined with Brady playing his best and Belichick perhaps pouring it on created a paradise for fantasy owners week after week.

My question is, with Brady returning after injury, was this a one year wonder? Are we likelier to see the Brady/Patriots of previous years, when they were pretty good offensively, but nothing like 07? Or is the explosiion coming back?

On paper, the additions of Joey Galloway and Fred Taylor, if they have anything left in the tank, should make this offense even more potent. How do you stop all these weapons? Who do you double cover? But what's on paper doesn't always translate to the field, as we all know. Please make a prediction as to, in your opinion, how prolific you believe the Patriots offense wil be this year.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

They will return to greatness.

 

[Knobs]

I'll cede to Yudkin on just about all things about the Patriots. So my vote goes to New England exploding once more.

 

[FantasyTrader]

I don't think they'll be "back" in the truest sense of the word. But they'll still outperform all but a handful of offenses. I think Brady will make great strides as the season wears on - it'll be the tales of two halves for him and the Pats. He's only QB9 on my redraft board.

 

[Masked Vigilante]

I don't think they'll be "back" in the truest sense of the word. But they'll still outperform all but a handful of offenses. I think Brady will make great strides as the season wears on - it'll be the tales of two halves for him and the Pats. He's only QB9 on my redraft board.

Cassel managed to be QB7 last year. Do you think Brady ver2009 will be statistically worse than Cassel ver2008?

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

I don't think they'll be "back" in the truest sense of the word. But they'll still outperform all but a handful of offenses. I think Brady will make great strides as the season wears on - it'll be the tales of two halves for him and the Pats. He's only QB9 on my redraft board.

I would be interested to see your top 8.The forecast calls for reign.

 

[Knobs]

I don't think they'll be "back" in the truest sense of the word. But they'll still outperform all but a handful of offenses. I think Brady will make great strides as the season wears on - it'll be the tales of two halves for him and the Pats. He's only QB9 on my redraft board.

I would be interested to see your top 8.The forecast calls for reign.

Do you think the Patriots won't score a great deal to start the year?

 

[David Yudkin]

I'll cede to Yudkin on just about all things about the Patriots. So my vote goes to New England exploding once more.

If similar yardage totals and 500 points = greatness, then count me in. But that would still be 89 fewer points than in 07. I don't think they will have trouble moving the ball, just maybe a little bit more trouble scoring as much (more turnovers, more FG, some stalled drives, etc.).

 

[thesitedoc]

As in 2007 the offense will be pretty much unstoppable. Brady will throw like he did that year and the WR's will score as well.

That said, I feel this team, with the acqusition of FT will also look to run a little more, especially in the 4th quarter if they have a decent enough lead.

I don't have the stats but the Pat's scored quite a bit of passing TD in the late3rd/4th quarter when they already had a big lead. I think there was an infamous 4th quarter TD pass to Moss on 4th down.

Anyway, unlike 2007 I think they will be more conservative later in the game and try to run out the clock if they have a good lead.

I believe a lot of players felt disrespected by them running up of the score late in the game and wouldn't think twice about leveling Brady in a blowout if the Pat's look to be passing in obvious run the clock out situations.

 

[Banger]

The only way they don't absolutely dominate is if they have major injuries to the line/skill positions.

 

[switz]

The 2007 New England Patriots offense was the greatest I have ever seen in the NFL, plain and simple. While I personally have no love for this franchise, it must be said that the additions of Randy Moss and Wes Welker, combined with Brady playing his best and Belichick perhaps pouring it on created a paradise for fantasy owners week after week. paper doesn't always translate to the field, as we all know. Please make a prediction as to, in your opinion, how prolific you believe the Patriots offense wil be this year.

It was an incredible offense, but I believe things just aligned so perfectly it would be hard to reproduce. I know early in the season they really caught people off guard, and in the SB the Giants showed how to limit the offense with a great pass rush. KC seemed to copy that in the first game last season.Problem is, not everyone can generate that type of a pass rush. Most teams can't in fact. So the Patriots will still probably have some lofty stats, but I don't believe it will be at the pace it was in '07. I don't think any of us can really predict what or how they'll do, because they were so different in '07 than previously, and in '08 wee had no real chance to see if they'd continue like that. Some of the players are two years older, will tha have an effect? Brady's injury was pretty bad, will he be fully recovered? Has Moss lost a step (I doubt it), will Galloway be healthy (I doubt it as well), will teams squat on Welker and take away Brady's safety valve (probably), will Maroney or Taylor generate a good running game (possibly)... there are just so many questions...

 

[David Yudkin]

It was an incredible offense, but I believe things just aligned so perfectly it would be hard to reproduce. I know early in the season they really caught people off guard, and in the SB the Giants showed how to limit the offense with a great pass rush. KC seemed to copy that in the first game last season.

I'm not buying this at all. Faulk was suspended and was not available in Week One. Brady was not sacked at all prior to the play he got hurt and was 7 for 11 for 76 yards in 7 minutes of play. IIRC, newcomer LaMont Jordan was in on the play and completely missed his blocking assignment. If Faulk had not been suspended, it's unlikely Brady would have been hit on the play. KC did not have a great pass rush at all that day with Brady in.

 

[Adebisi]

Everyone is back from the '07 team, except that Galloway is expected to fill the Gaffney/Stallworth role (which is arguably an upgrade), and Fred Taylor has been added. And now, Moss and Welker have two full seasons under their belts in the offense. The offensive line has had that much more time to gel, and they're probably deeper than they were in '07 (as are the TEs). If Brady bounces back, they could potentially be even better than they were in '07.

 

[Knobs]

It was an incredible offense, but I believe things just aligned so perfectly it would be hard to reproduce. I know early in the season they really caught people off guard, and in the SB the Giants showed how to limit the offense with a great pass rush. KC seemed to copy that in the first game last season.

At first I thought this was shtick, but you keep referencing the Patriots' first game in several threads to show why Brady/Patriots will slow down.

Make your points, but this one thing is absolutely ridiculous to keep saying.

Brady suffered a torn ACL in his left knee on a low hit by Bernard Pollard with 7:27 left in the first quarter...IIRC, Brady also had 76 yards passing in that short amount of time? Yet they were slowed? This has been pointed out to you numerous times, so stop mentioning this. Just terrible.

This is either terrible shtick (even by your standards), you've deliberately ignored the facts, or you're truly living in your own world.

 

[David Yudkin]

If Brady bounces back, they could potentially be even better than they were in '07.

I'm higher on the Pats than most FBG staffers, but I don't see how they could score more than they did in 2007. If by "better," you mean the collection of talent on offense as a whole, I might give you that, but I don't see them breaking records this time around.And for the record I think Brady as the year progresses will be fine, but he's been struggling with his accuracy and timing and that will take the edge off his numbers early on.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

It was an incredible offense, but I believe things just aligned so perfectly it would be hard to reproduce. I know early in the season they really caught people off guard, and in the SB the Giants showed how to limit the offense with a great pass rush. KC seemed to copy that in the first game last season.

Yeah, how do you know this?

I don't think any of us can really predict what or how they'll do, because they were so different in '07 than previously, and in '08 wee had no real chance to see if they'd continue like that. Some of the players are two years older, will tha have an effect? Brady's injury was pretty bad, will he be fully recovered? Has Moss lost a step (I doubt it), will Galloway be healthy (I doubt it as well), will teams squat on Welker and take away Brady's safety valve (probably), will Maroney or Taylor generate a good running game (possibly)... there are just so many questions...

You don't represent everyone.Speak for yourself.

I'd be very interested to hear your reply to Yudkin's comment.

 

[Ilov80s]

I like Brady to toss 33-36 TDs, Moss to pull in 14-18, and Welker to catch 100+ balls for 1,200 yards or so. Very good offense.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

It was an incredible offense, but I believe things just aligned so perfectly it would be hard to reproduce. I know early in the season they really caught people off guard, and in the SB the Giants showed how to limit the offense with a great pass rush. KC seemed to copy that in the first game last season.

I don't think its possible for any teams to use the Giants as a model on how to defend against Brady and the Pats because it wasn't like the Gianst pressure was due to schemes or blitz packages necessarily. Most teams don't have D-lines that feature talents like Umenoiyra, Strahan and Tuck who were applying most of the pressure.If teams tried to apply pressure by blitzes it would expose them to potential big plays against them as the Pats have a good o-line and Brady is smart and quick with his release.I do agree with your overall sentiment though that we really just don't know if its possible for a team to just pick up that record setting pace agains, despite having most of the same talent in place.

 

[Da Man]

I actually think they will approach, if not surpass 2007 stats. They have all the weapons back and added Galloway, Lewis, Baker and Alex Smith to catch Brady's passes. We will see but I see huge offensive numbers from the Pats!!!

 

[Adebisi]

If Brady bounces back, they could potentially be even better than they were in '07.

I'm higher on the Pats than most FBG staffers, but I don't see how they could score more than they did in 2007. If by "better," you mean the collection of talent on offense as a whole, I might give you that, but I don't see them breaking records this time around.And for the record I think Brady as the year progresses will be fine, but he's been struggling with his accuracy and timing and that will take the edge off his numbers early on.

No, by "better" I mean "more effective"... and I say that they "could potentially be even better," though I want to make it clear that I'm not stating that they absolutely will be; just that the potential is there on paper. And I certainly don't expect them to score more points than they did in '07, mainly because I think the team will run the ball more and I also don't see Belichick keeping Brady on the field to run up the score this year.

 

[switz]

It was an incredible offense, but I believe things just aligned so perfectly it would be hard to reproduce. I know early in the season they really caught people off guard, and in the SB the Giants showed how to limit the offense with a great pass rush. KC seemed to copy that in the first game last season.

I'm not buying this at all. Faulk was suspended and was not available in Week One. Brady was not sacked at all prior to the play he got hurt and was for 7 for 11 for 76 yards in 7 minutes of play. IIRC, newcomer LaMont Jordan was in on the play and completely missed his blocking assignment. If Faulk had not been suspended, it's unlikely Brady would have been hit on the play. KC did not have a great pass rush at all that day with Brady in.

David, in '07 Brady averaged8.315 yards per attempt (9.4 AYA)

1 TD per 11.5 passes

In the first game, though of course a small sample, Brady had

6.909 yards per attempt (6.9 AYA)

0 TD per 11 passes (and it certainly didn't appear his next pass was going to be a TD IMO)

Though the first game was a small sample, it was definitely a decline from the year prior. You can blame it on whatever you want, you can claim KC had no pass rush (clearly not true), you can say it won't happen again.... but the truth is, that game DID happen, Brady's stats WERE less than his averages the year prior, KC did knock him out of the game (and the season), and there's no way to know how they'll fare this season.

I was being pretty fair and balanced in my assessment. I think you may have a little bit of Patriots color to your POV. You have a lot of Patriots insight, news and such, but when it comes to seeing things clearly, I don't think it always translates. We'll see this season, but I'm certain teams are going to try to duplicate the defensive scheme the Giants used. As I noted, they won't all be able to, but they will try.

 

[Largie]

so who's the better player to own this year - Moss or Brady?

Mr.Yudkin, may I divert your attention briefly please ?

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=479590

 

[Hagger]

My guess is this team will go as Brady does. If he comes back and feels confident on that knee, then I see no reason why this won't be a Super Bowl caliber offense again.

 

[Knobs]

It was an incredible offense, but I believe things just aligned so perfectly it would be hard to reproduce. I know early in the season they really caught people off guard, and in the SB the Giants showed how to limit the offense with a great pass rush. KC seemed to copy that in the first game last season.

I'm not buying this at all. Faulk was suspended and was not available in Week One. Brady was not sacked at all prior to the play he got hurt and was for 7 for 11 for 76 yards in 7 minutes of play. IIRC, newcomer LaMont Jordan was in on the play and completely missed his blocking assignment. If Faulk had not been suspended, it's unlikely Brady would have been hit on the play. KC did not have a great pass rush at all that day with Brady in.

David, in '07 Brady averaged8.315 yards per attempt (9.4 AYA)

1 TD per 11.5 passes

In the first game, though of course a small sample, Brady had

6.909 yards per attempt (6.9 AYA)

0 TD per 11 passes (and it certainly didn't appear his next pass was going to be a TD IMO)

Though the first game was a small sample, it was definitely a decline from the year prior. You can blame it on whatever you want, you can claim KC had no pass rush (clearly not true), you can say it won't happen again.... but the truth is, that game DID happen, Brady's stats WERE less than his averages the year prior, KC did knock him out of the game (and the season), and there's no way to know how they'll fare this season.

I was being pretty fair and balanced in my assessment. I think you may have a little bit of Patriots color to your POV. You have a lot of Patriots insight, news and such, but when it comes to seeing things clearly, I don't think it always translates. We'll see this season, but I'm certain teams are going to try to duplicate the defensive scheme the Giants used. As I noted, they won't all be able to, but they will try.

WTMF? Are you SERIOUS with this crap? ONE HALF OF ONE QUARTER?!!?! That's what your basis is for arguing why they'll decline? There are no amount of smilies that could truly reflect what a horrifically HORRIBLE posting this is.

 

[switz]

It was an incredible offense, but I believe things just aligned so perfectly it would be hard to reproduce. I know early in the season they really caught people off guard, and in the SB the Giants showed how to limit the offense with a great pass rush. KC seemed to copy that in the first game last season.

Yeah, how do you know this?

Take a look at their first half stats versus their second half stats. There is a big difference as teams planned better for them in the second half of the season.

I don't think any of us can really predict what or how they'll do, because they were so different in '07 than previously, and in '08 we had no real chance to see if they'd continue like that. Some of the players are two years older, will tha have an effect? Brady's injury was pretty bad, will he be fully recovered? Has Moss lost a step (I doubt it), will Galloway be healthy (I doubt it as well), will teams squat on Welker and take away Brady's safety valve (probably), will Maroney or Taylor generate a good running game (possibly)... there are just so many questions...

You don't represent everyone.Speak for yourself.

So you have some magic ability to accurately project what they're going to do? Can you tell me the SB winner? The score? I'd love to get a line down on this if you already know it all

I'd be very interested to hear your reply to Yudkin's comment.

Already was responding to David before you posted this.

 

[switz]

WTMF? Are you SERIOUS with this crap? ONE HALF OF ONE QUARTER?!!?! That's what your basis is for arguing why they'll decline?

No, that was, as I said, a very small sample, showing that at the start of last season, they weren't on pace with their averages from '07.Quite honestly, the argument that they'll decline shouldn't mean anything to Pats fans, they could decline and still have the #1 offense this season. Why not jump on David, as he says they're going to decline. What's his argument?

This is a perfect example of why people think Pats fans are obnoxious. You guys are a little overly defensive of your team.

Did you even bother to read my whole post?

So the Patriots will still probably have some lofty stats, but I don't believe it will be at the pace it was in '07.

I'm not saying they'll stink... just that '07 isn't going to be repeated, which BTW David who you "cede" to agrees with.

 

[Jed]

It was an incredible offense, but I believe things just aligned so perfectly it would be hard to reproduce. I know early in the season they really caught people off guard, and in the SB the Giants showed how to limit the offense with a great pass rush. KC seemed to copy that in the first game last season.

I'm not buying this at all. Faulk was suspended and was not available in Week One. Brady was not sacked at all prior to the play he got hurt and was for 7 for 11 for 76 yards in 7 minutes of play. IIRC, newcomer LaMont Jordan was in on the play and completely missed his blocking assignment. If Faulk had not been suspended, it's unlikely Brady would have been hit on the play. KC did not have a great pass rush at all that day with Brady in.

David, in '07 Brady averaged8.315 yards per attempt (9.4 AYA)

1 TD per 11.5 passes

In the first game, though of course a small sample, Brady had

6.909 yards per attempt (6.9 AYA)

0 TD per 11 passes (and it certainly didn't appear his next pass was going to be a TD IMO)

Though the first game was a small sample, it was definitely a decline from the year prior. You can blame it on whatever you want, you can claim KC had no pass rush (clearly not true), you can say it won't happen again.... but the truth is, that game DID happen, Brady's stats WERE less than his averages the year prior, KC did knock him out of the game (and the season), and there's no way to know how they'll fare this season.

I was being pretty fair and balanced in my assessment. I think you may have a little bit of Patriots color to your POV. You have a lot of Patriots insight, news and such, but when it comes to seeing things clearly, I don't think it always translates. We'll see this season, but I'm certain teams are going to try to duplicate the defensive scheme the Giants used. As I noted, they won't all be able to, but they will try.

Pure insanity to extrapolate a prediction from 11 passes into the regular season.

 

[David Yudkin]

It was an incredible offense, but I believe things just aligned so perfectly it would be hard to reproduce. I know early in the season they really caught people off guard, and in the SB the Giants showed how to limit the offense with a great pass rush. KC seemed to copy that in the first game last season.

I'm not buying this at all. Faulk was suspended and was not available in Week One. Brady was not sacked at all prior to the play he got hurt and was for 7 for 11 for 76 yards in 7 minutes of play. IIRC, newcomer LaMont Jordan was in on the play and completely missed his blocking assignment. If Faulk had not been suspended, it's unlikely Brady would have been hit on the play. KC did not have a great pass rush at all that day with Brady in.

David, in '07 Brady averaged8.315 yards per attempt (9.4 AYA)

1 TD per 11.5 passes

In the first game, though of course a small sample, Brady had

6.909 yards per attempt (6.9 AYA)

0 TD per 11 passes (and it certainly didn't appear his next pass was going to be a TD IMO)

Though the first game was a small sample, it was definitely a decline from the year prior. You can blame it on whatever you want, you can claim KC had no pass rush (clearly not true), you can say it won't happen again.... but the truth is, that game DID happen, Brady's stats WERE less than his averages the year prior, KC did knock him out of the game (and the season), and there's no way to know how they'll fare this season.

I was being pretty fair and balanced in my assessment. I think you may have a little bit of Patriots color to your POV. You have a lot of Patriots insight, news and such, but when it comes to seeing things clearly, I don't think it always translates. We'll see this season, but I'm certain teams are going to try to duplicate the defensive scheme the Giants used. As I noted, they won't all be able to, but they will try.

I'm not saying that teams wouldn't try to do things to stop the Pats in 08, as clearly they were not going to simply let NE walk up and down the field. We really don't know what would have happened had Brady not gotten hurt, and certainly 7 minutes of football will not sway an argument either way.I remember wtching that game and do not remember Brady being under duress or anyone even hitting him until he went down. IMO, Faulk being suspended had a huge impact on the entire season as it turns out.

What we DID see in those 7 minutes was that it's improssible to stay as efficient as the Pats were in 2007. They had practically no turnovers in 2007. IIRC, the RB and WR corps only had 4 fumbles the entire season. They had two in two possessions against the Chiefs. That's what I meant by saying they should be able to move the ball, but a lot of drives ended the right way for them that year taht may not this year.

 

[Knobs]

WTMF? Are you SERIOUS with this crap? ONE HALF OF ONE QUARTER?!!?! That's what your basis is for arguing why they'll decline?

No, that was, as I said, a very small sample, showing that at the start of last season, they weren't on pace with their averages from '07.Quite honestly, the argument that they'll decline shouldn't mean anything to Pats fans, they could decline and still have the #1 offense this season. Why not jump on David, as he says they're going to decline. What's his argument? This is a perfect example of why people think Pats fans are obnoxious. You guys are a little overly defensive of your team.

Care to bet $100 on my football team? How about if I gave you three guesses? Don't assume I'm a Patriots fan simply because I've called out your absurd stat manipulation. That's a cheap and immature tactic to try and weaken my stance.It's not New England. In fact, I hate the Patriots, but that doesn't mean I can't recognize a terrible argument and manipulation of stats when I see it. If you want to say the Patriots will regress because the odds of repeating such lofty numbers are minuscule, fine. If you want to point out their #'s from the second half of last year, then no problem. You can list other elite offenses throughout history and show their inability to sustain that level for more than a season. People may agree or disagree but those are valid arguments.Taking the #'s from ONE HALF of ONE QUARTER to project a year is ridiculous, underhanded, and flat out insulting to anyone with a modicum of intelligence.

 

[baconisgood]

so who's the better player to own this year - Moss or Brady?

I think we've seen that Brady putting up stud numbers relies on Moss putting up stud numbers. In that sense if Moss isn't worth a 1st round pick then Brady won't be either, and Moss would be my pick in a 1QB league over Brady.But I think your nuts though for not taking a stud RB if one is available, you can always use 2 stud RBs. Take S Jax.

 

[Adebisi]

so who's the better player to own this year - Moss or Brady?

I think we've seen that Brady putting up stud numbers relies on Moss putting up stud numbers. In that sense if Moss isn't worth a 1st round pick then Brady won't be either, and Moss would be my pick in a 1QB league over Brady.But I think your nuts though for not taking a stud RB if one is available, you can always use 2 stud RBs. Take S Jax.

Tom Brady once led the league in TD passes while throwing to Troy Brown and David Patten.Of course, Moss is going to elevate any QB's stats.

 

[Tigerbot Hesh]

I think the Pats will remain one of the top offenses in the league, but I expect them to revert to some of what they did prior to 2007: Open a game throwing, and then slow things down and try to kill the clock in the 2nd half.

Before they added Moss and Welker, New England seemed happy to try and pass quite a bit in the first half, then sit on a lead after halftime and play ball control. Brady had several game where he would throw for 200 yards and 2 TDs by halftime, but would only add 30 yards in the second half as they worked the clock with the run.

Going back to this philosphy would help keep Brady from taking some hits in the second half and give their defense a chance to play with a lead and be more aggressive.

 

[switz]

Taking the #'s from ONE HALF of ONE QUARTER to project a year is ridiculous, underhanded, and flat out insulting to anyone with a modicum of intelligence.

To be honest, after reading your posts, I'm really surprised you're insulted then.

 

[Knobs]

Taking the #'s from ONE HALF of ONE QUARTER to project a year is ridiculous, underhanded, and flat out insulting to anyone with a modicum of intelligence.

To be honest, after reading your posts, I'm really surprised you're insulted then.

Quality stuff here. Instead of apologizing for such a lousy stat manipulation, you attack me.

I'm still a fan of most of your stuff in here, but you need to grow up already.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Take a look at their first half stats versus their second half stats. There is a big difference as teams planned better for them in the second half of the season.

Unlike yourself, I'm very familiar with the Pats, having watched nearly every game and having reviewed those '07 stats in great detail because of endless conversations like this one with numerous Pats trolls talking out their ###.

So you have some magic ability to accurately project what they're going to do? Can you tell me the SB winner? The score? I'd love to get a line down on this if you already know it all

I hate to break it to some of you fantasy impresarios, but you don't actually know anybody's production before it happens.The Pats aren't any more mysterious than any other particular team or player if you actually knew wtf you were talking about.

Unfortunately tough, I think that other guy probably had it dead right --- this is just another example of typical thread derailing ignorant Pats trolling that's so common on the internet.

 

[Morton Muffley]

It was an incredible offense, but I believe things just aligned so perfectly it would be hard to reproduce. I know early in the season they really caught people off guard, and in the SB the Giants showed how to limit the offense with a great pass rush. KC seemed to copy that in the first game last season.

I'm not buying this at all. Faulk was suspended and was not available in Week One. Brady was not sacked at all prior to the play he got hurt and was for 7 for 11 for 76 yards in 7 minutes of play. IIRC, newcomer LaMont Jordan was in on the play and completely missed his blocking assignment. If Faulk had not been suspended, it's unlikely Brady would have been hit on the play. KC did not have a great pass rush at all that day with Brady in.

David, in '07 Brady averaged8.315 yards per attempt (9.4 AYA)

1 TD per 11.5 passes

In the first game, though of course a small sample, Brady had

6.909 yards per attempt (6.9 AYA)

0 TD per 11 passes (and it certainly didn't appear his next pass was going to be a TD IMO)

Though the first game was a small sample, it was definitely a decline from the year prior. You can blame it on whatever you want, you can claim KC had no pass rush (clearly not true), you can say it won't happen again.... but the truth is, that game DID happen, Brady's stats WERE less than his averages the year prior, KC did knock him out of the game (and the season), and there's no way to know how they'll fare this season.

I was being pretty fair and balanced in my assessment. I think you may have a little bit of Patriots color to your POV. You have a lot of Patriots insight, news and such, but when it comes to seeing things clearly, I don't think it always translates. We'll see this season, but I'm certain teams are going to try to duplicate the defensive scheme the Giants used. As I noted, they won't all be able to, but they will try.

IIRC, the Pats had three possessions with Brady under center. Those three possessions ended with a punt and two unforced turnovers (yes, I recall both being unforced, but I may be wrong). Are you suggesting that the Pats will likely turn the ball over on 66% of their possessions in 2009?

 

[timschochet]

Some very good posts here. The general feeling seems to be that yes, it will still be an offensive machine, but that no, 2007 will not repeat simply because Belichick will be more conservative when he's ahead in the 4th quarter.

 

[DawnBTVS]

I believe a lot of players felt disrespected by them running up of the score late in the game and wouldn't think twice about leveling Brady in a blowout if the Pat's look to be passing in obvious run the clock out situations.

Just wanted to point out that people were making this same, exact argument almost game after game during the 2007 season when Brady was "running up the score" on anybody and everybody. I think it's one of those points that is a lot easier said than done.As for Brady's 2007... Here are some noteworthy stats to consider from ESPN.- He had 509 passes thrown shorter than 20 yards for 35 TD vs. 3 INT. That offense was built on getting YAC and as long as Wes Welker, Moss, and now Joey Galloway can get yards after making the short catch, Brady and that offense has a chance to explode on anybody. He only completed 13 passes over 31 yards (i.e. caught at 31 or more yards I believe).- He had 112 pass attempts in the red zone for 34 TD. The Patriots often did play action and were willing to throw in the red zone. Given the weapons they have, the Patriots offense should be throwing it fairly often in the red zone again this season.- 1st Half of the Season (Sept/Oct) he had 267 pass attempts for 30 TD vs. 2 INT. Partly due to defense and weather, the 2nd half saw him throw 311 pass attempts for 20 TD vs. 6 INT. If the Patriots are going to have a chance at scoring a lot of points this year, I'll expect them to explode in the first half and start coming down to earth as the weather gets colder and rain/snow become more of a factor.I think the Patriots have a very good chance to challenge their record from 2007 but it depends on how Brady does and whether he's just as good on intermediate throws and receivers can make plays.

 

[timschochet]

I think the Pats will remain one of the top offenses in the league, but I expect them to revert to some of what they did prior to 2007: Open a game throwing, and then slow things down and try to kill the clock in the 2nd half. Before they added Moss and Welker, New England seemed happy to try and pass quite a bit in the first half, then sit on a lead after halftime and play ball control. Brady had several game where he would throw for 200 yards and 2 TDs by halftime, but would only add 30 yards in the second half as they worked the clock with the run.Going back to this philosphy would help keep Brady from taking some hits in the second half and give their defense a chance to play with a lead and be more aggressive.

If this becomes the case, then Brady is being drafted way too high in FF, right?

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

It was an incredible offense, but I believe things just aligned so perfectly it would be hard to reproduce. I know early in the season they really caught people off guard, and in the SB the Giants showed how to limit the offense with a great pass rush. KC seemed to copy that in the first game last season.

I'm not buying this at all. Faulk was suspended and was not available in Week One. Brady was not sacked at all prior to the play he got hurt and was 7 for 11 for 76 yards in 7 minutes of play. IIRC, newcomer LaMont Jordan was in on the play and completely missed his blocking assignment. If Faulk had not been suspended, it's unlikely Brady would have been hit on the play. KC did not have a great pass rush at all that day with Brady in.

What's this? Yudkin p0wning switz in a pats thread? Shocking!ps extrapolating brady's stats = 600 yards in the game and >9000 for the year. clearly the pats were having trouble moving the ball.having gotten my digs in, I'll say I expect 80-85% of the production from 2007. the giants did show how to try to attack the pats offense, but its not quite the same as the roadmap the ravens provided against the wildcat.

 

[switz]

Taking the #'s from ONE HALF of ONE QUARTER to project a year is ridiculous, underhanded, and flat out insulting to anyone with a modicum of intelligence.

To be honest, after reading your posts, I'm really surprised you're insulted then.

Quality stuff here. Instead of apologizing for such a lousy stat manipulation, you attack me.

I'm still a fan of most of your stuff in here, but you need to grow up already.

Dude... I didn't attack you, I attacked the quality of your posts in this thread. Either you didn't follow it well, or your having an off day, whatever it is.

 

[switz]

It was an incredible offense, but I believe things just aligned so perfectly it would be hard to reproduce. I know early in the season they really caught people off guard, and in the SB the Giants showed how to limit the offense with a great pass rush. KC seemed to copy that in the first game last season.

I'm not buying this at all. Faulk was suspended and was not available in Week One. Brady was not sacked at all prior to the play he got hurt and was 7 for 11 for 76 yards in 7 minutes of play. IIRC, newcomer LaMont Jordan was in on the play and completely missed his blocking assignment. If Faulk had not been suspended, it's unlikely Brady would have been hit on the play. KC did not have a great pass rush at all that day with Brady in.

What's this? Yudkin p0wning switz in a pats thread? Shocking!ps extrapolating brady's stats = 600 yards in the game and >9000 for the year. clearly the pats were having trouble moving the ball.

having gotten my digs in, I'll say I expect 80-85% of the production from 2007.

the giants did show how to try to attack the pats offense, but its not quite the same as the roadmap the ravens provided against the wildcat.

Try reading the whole thread before replying next time kiddo...

 

[David Yudkin]

Some very good posts here. The general feeling seems to be that yes, it will still be an offensive machine, but that no, 2007 will not repeat simply because Belichick will be more conservative when he's ahead in the 4th quarter.

The 07 Pats initially ran the ball quite a bit even scoring a lot of points. Then they seemingly went extra pass happy. We are assuming the defense will be solid, but there's a chance that they allow some more points (or against better offenses at the very least). NE may not be cruising by 20-30 points at halftime like they were the first half of 2007.Sadly, I think they will leave Brady out there most of the game and won't bring in someone else early in the second half or 4th quarter. That may not mean a ton of production for Brady, but I think they will still try to move the ball. It makes sense that they would try to run more late if they were way up, but they did that in 2007 anyway. It's just that we heard about a couple of 3rd or 4th down passes that ran up the score, not about the 6-7 rushing plays before those passes.

 

[timschochet]

If the Patriots are going to have a chance at scoring a lot of points this year, I'll expect them to explode in the first half and start coming down to earth as the weather gets colder and rain/snow become more of a factor.

This comment brings up another strange thing about that 2007 offense: nearly every other incredible offense I can remember (the Fouts Chargers, the Aikman Cowboys, the 49ers, the Cunningham/Moss Vikings, the Warner Rams, the P. Manning Colts) had one thing in common: they were warm weather or indoor teams. The 07 Pats are the only outdoor team which plays in difficult weather conditions that had this sort of offense. Normally, the pattern is the Pats play similar to the Steelers- tough, physical play on both sides which wears the opponent down. This fact also makes me wonder if, for all their talent, those numbers in 07 were a freakish thing that will not be repeated.

 

[Knobs]

Taking the #'s from ONE HALF of ONE QUARTER to project a year is ridiculous, underhanded, and flat out insulting to anyone with a modicum of intelligence.

To be honest, after reading your posts, I'm really surprised you're insulted then.

Quality stuff here. Instead of apologizing for such a lousy stat manipulation, you attack me.

I'm still a fan of most of your stuff in here, but you need to grow up already.

Dude... I didn't attack you, I attacked the quality of your posts in this thread. Either you didn't follow it well, or your having an off day, whatever it is.

That's an awful lot of stretching and reaching if you're trying to say you weren't insulting me. But I really don't care either way...it's not that big a deal to me.I was simply calling you out for making such a terrible argument and couldn't believe you were actually using 3 drives to predict an entire season. That was absolutely ridiculous. In turn, you proceeded to assume I'm a Patriots fan and question my intelligence.

I don't really care if you apologize...I just want you to stop using such tiny sample sizes to predict such a big season. That was, and still is, absolute insanity. You've been called out for doing that in a few threads now but continue to roll out that argument.

Please stop using THREE drives, and 1/8 of a game to predict an entire season's worth of offensive production.

 

[greenline]

It was an incredible offense, but I believe things just aligned so perfectly it would be hard to reproduce. I know early in the season they really caught people off guard, and in the SB the Giants showed how to limit the offense with a great pass rush. KC seemed to copy that in the first game last season.

I'm not buying this at all. Faulk was suspended and was not available in Week One. Brady was not sacked at all prior to the play he got hurt and was 7 for 11 for 76 yards in 7 minutes of play. IIRC, newcomer LaMont Jordan was in on the play and completely missed his blocking assignment. If Faulk had not been suspended, it's unlikely Brady would have been hit on the play. KC did not have a great pass rush at all that day with Brady in.

FWIW - it was Sammy Morris blocking. He engaged the rusher, made the initial bock but did not maintain the block. Pollard then lunged at Brady and made contact with the knee. Brady still completed the pass to Moss for a long gain but Moss almost turned it over.

 

[David Yudkin]

It was an incredible offense, but I believe things just aligned so perfectly it would be hard to reproduce. I know early in the season they really caught people off guard, and in the SB the Giants showed how to limit the offense with a great pass rush. KC seemed to copy that in the first game last season.

I'm not buying this at all. Faulk was suspended and was not available in Week One. Brady was not sacked at all prior to the play he got hurt and was 7 for 11 for 76 yards in 7 minutes of play. IIRC, newcomer LaMont Jordan was in on the play and completely missed his blocking assignment. If Faulk had not been suspended, it's unlikely Brady would have been hit on the play. KC did not have a great pass rush at all that day with Brady in.

FWIW - it was Sammy Morris blocking. He engaged the rusher, made the initial bock but did not maintain the block. Pollard then lunged at Brady and made contact with the knee. Brady still completed the pass to Moss for a long gain but Moss almost turned it over.

Moss did fumble. Couldn't remember if it was Jordan or Morris blocking.

 

[Tanner9919]

I'll cede to Yudkin on just about all things about the Patriots. So my vote goes to New England exploding once more.

If similar yardage totals and 500 points = greatness, then count me in. But that would still be 89 fewer points than in 07. I don't think they will have trouble moving the ball, just maybe a little bit more trouble scoring as much (more turnovers, more FG, some stalled drives, etc.).

add to that, Improved defenses in the AFC East, Brady's 32 now, the running backs on NE roster are perhaps the oldest in the league, Randy Moss has definitely lost a step (he simply looked slower last season), the defense is a mix of old worn out vets and new unproven young guns, and the Pats haven't had a rash of injuries over the years, if that happens, all bets are off..I'm not foerecasting a dire season of gloom and doom, but I see no way possible that the Patriots come remotely close to 50 TD passes in 2009...just look at Mannings numbers since his record breaking season, he hasn't thrown more than 31 TD's in the 4 years since that record feat ( 2004)..along those lines, it's hard to imagine Brady tossing more than,say, 30-ish TDs this season..his lifetime avg is 28 tds/yr...there is simply no way NE can ,or will , allow Brady to drop back to pass as much as they did back in 2007, he'll get killed if that happens...they cannot risk another injury, they are paper-thin at backup QB position...I'm just not sold on the NE running game being anything more than an avg unit. and say what you want about Brady being back and all of that, Manning took a while to get back in the groove after his injury, the same is going to be true for Brady..

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

the Pats haven't had a rash of injuries over the years,

What??

 

[David Yudkin]

I'm just not sold on the NE running game being anything more than an avg unit. and say what you want about Brady being back and all of that, Manning took a while to get back in the groove after his injury, the same is going to be true for Brady..

I think the Pats RB talent wise are not much better than average, but the scheme they run and threat of the pass makes them collectively all better. If you were a defensive coordinator, would you rather give up a 50 yard bomb to Moss or 4-5 yards on a run?This sort of reminds me od Edgerring James in his last few years on the Colts. Teams were so considered about Harrison and Wayne that he would bang out 4 yards and change over and over again on his way to 1500 rushing yards with very little fanfare while looking very ordinary doing it. I think that will be the case in NE.